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Housing sales hit 20-year low

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Sorry to end the love-fest that is the last post, but the news waits for noone.  Today the Globe is reporting that Housing sales hit a 20-year low.

The selloff in real estate has morphed beyond a correction of overheated individual markets into a broad national slump, with prices posting their worst decline in nearly 20 years in November.

In the face of a collapse in consumer confidence, the number of resale homes sold in Canada plummeted by 42 per cent year-to-year to 27,743, the lowest level since January, 2001.

I haven’t followed Benjamin Tal’s comments as close as most here, but I’m guessing his tune is changing somewhat:

This is clearly a market that is extremely risk averse, and this is not the ninth inning of this game, this is just the beginning. I think that any hope of a quick turnaround … is misguided.

Housing sales hit 20-year low as real estate slump widens

-ReductiMat

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alexcanuck

As promised… Tony Gioventu of CHOA (Condominium Home Owners Association) as heard on the Christie Clark Show, CKNW. Starrt about halfway through hour two. This link should be hour 2 only, just go halfway through. Immediately

after some relationship fluff.

Well worth a listen.

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Lily pad

Paul: Re #95

That posting was copied from the Greater Fool site. I am not the one who wrote it. I will continue to post any similar stuff I find.

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holgs

Paul, dude… You seem to be getting too emotional about our little bet here… I don't think you understand that I am one of the biggest bears around. I am not predicting roses and chocolate bars for real estate! Perhaps our economy is somewhat similar to Spain, that could be, industry wise. I am not disagreeing. My point was simply that they have more foreign speculators per capita than we do (ours were a myth!) I am also not disagreeing that this burst is going to be unfrickinbelievable in scope! “Ms. Kniffen said about 40 percent of Cascadia Pacific Realty’s clients were Americans” is a direct quote from the company not my writing fiction. Look it up on their web-site. Look for quotation marks in my posting . They are these sqiggly things “”"”"”"”"”" on either side of an enclosed… Read more »

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Dave

Where did I say that it does? I simply said that it’s detrimental to an economy to have negative growth, am I wrong?

It sure isn't what you wrote. Your commentary was all within one paragraph implying that you considered a declining population would result in declining productivity. Convenient that you change your interpretation after having it explained. GDP growth and productivity are two different concepts. You were confusing the two.

In any case, yes negative growth is detrimental to an economy.

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Tony Danza

Do you understand what productivity is?

Yes.

You are not using the term correctly.

How did I use the term incorrectly?

The size of the work force doesn’t enter into it.

Where did I say that it does? I simply said that it's detrimental to an economy to have negative growth, am I wrong?

I also said that it's detrimental to an economy to have an aging population. I'm talking about the effects of the Boomers aging and expiring on real estate values. But outsourcing will save us, thank you Jeebus!

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Dave

Dave what happens to our economy when productivity declines by say 1%? It’s bad right? With the Boomer generation winding down we’re going to see a declining population. What effect do you think that has on an economy? Oh and you’re right about immigration but guess what, most of the immigrants coming to Canada are Boomers! Do you understand what productivity is? You are not using the term correctly. Productivity is simply a measure of output per unit of work (e.g. one hour). The size of the work force doesn’t enter into it. I can only presume you are referring to a drop in overall economic output due to a decline in the workforce. I doubt that our economic output will drop. Firstly, there are lots of workers coming behind the boomers. Secondly, our population is still growing. Thirdly, many… Read more »

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Brittanny Originals

that is market, sorry

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Brittanny Originals

I personally know of 7 homeowners now that are going to re-list in the spring when "the maket recovers"

Kinda like: "IF I CLOSE MY EYES YOU CAN'T SEE ME"

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paul

#95 Lily pad. Thank you for the insight into your market niche. Much appreciate getting professional real time info without a sales or personal agenda spin attached. Keep us up to date please.

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Drachen

Dave "Most people who buy SFH in GV are not first time home buyers." And those people don't impact the market significantly. Sell 1 home to buy another and the net market impact is essentially 0. For the market to keep going upwards it needs to feed on new buyers and home ownership is at record levels. But enough of you changing the subject and avoiding my question. You've admitted your system of market prediction is broken over the long run. You've said your system works fine for the last 50 years but will fail over the next 100. At what point between now and 100 years from now does your system fail? What makes you believe the system is still working now if you know it will fail eventually? Your system of market prediction is 0 for 4 right… Read more »

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Tony Danza

I was wrong that Millennials were bigger in size than the Boomers, but they are fairly comparable in size. On top of that, we have positive immigration rates.

Dave what happens to our economy when productivity declines by say 1%? It's bad right? With the Boomer generation winding down we're going to see a declining population. What effect do you think that has on an economy? Oh and you're right about immigration but guess what, most of the immigrants coming to Canada are Boomers! You'd think that a real estate agent might have even a cursory understanding of the demographics of the market they work in! Maybe you slept through the "Demographics 100" component of your rigorous realtor training seminar?

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NO -LYMPICS

Re MILLENIUM Development in Nanaimo WEB EXTRA: Hotel developer asks city for five-month delay http://www.bclocalnews.com/vancouver_island_centr… QUOTE: The developer has asked Nanaimo city council for more time to begin construction on the 180-room hotel adjacent to the Vancouver Island Conference Centre. Council is scheduled to meet Wednesday night in a special open meeting to discuss the proposed new terms. In a letter to council dated Dec. 15, Millennium Nanaimo Properties president Shahram Malek says his company is still committed to the project and has invested “significant time and resources” even though it has missed several contractual deadlines that should have seen construction begin last summer. QUOTE: In his letter, Malek offered the City of Nanaimo some incentives as a “gesture of goodwill,” adding that Millennium is now ready to obtain a development permit after two failed attempts. One of those incentives… Read more »

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Lily Pad

I found this posting on the Greater Fool site. I guess it's not only realtors who are feeling the pain but appraisrs, too. I wonder how home inspectors, mortgage brokers and real estate lawyers (the non-bankruptcy type) are doing right now. " #8 Gordon C. on 12.15.08 at 8:21 pm As for the “WET COAST” of Canada, it really sucks to be a Real Estate Appraiser. Sales activity is at the lowest point in ten years. That puts us back to pre-boom times which were a flat half dozen years. Prices are declining and in my city at a rate of 2 percent a month or roughly 25 percent a year for single family homes. Condo prices have rolled back to the Q1 prices of 2007. As for properties with 5 or more suites, there is no market for them… Read more »

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Van-zee

On the topic of affordability or as some may prefer

"affordability".

http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/news/business/…

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alexcanuck

Prices are going lower than $750k.

If you had stopped there you'd finally be right about something!

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Dave

GVRD median household income? About 62K Median SFH? 750K Mortgage payment with 25% down? At 6% 3595.71/mo or 43,148.52 per year. Leaving a bit shy of 18,000 for EVERYTHING else! Back to you, Dave. Prices are going lower than $750k. Why pick 6% for your mortgage rate? It isn't very hard to get 5%, so that brings it down to $3,250 per month, or $39k per year. It's even easier to go lower than that with a variable rate mortgage, but I think people are safer looking at 5 year rates. Most people who buy SFH in GV are not first time home buyers. Many go in with more than 25%, but I have no idea what the median down-payment is. Do you? Median incomes do not necessarily translate into the median SFH buyer. Actually, the two demographics are probably… Read more »

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alexcanuck

read on:

Yeah, that's right! Forgot that bit about taxes. So you can't even afford to live KD and value village style.

But you're not hurting as bad as Dave, who just had his Beemer repossessed. Poor Dave, someone go buy a house from him.

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read on

@alex. 82

19k? You'd probably want to use some of that pay your taxes, EI etc. I'm pretty sure the 62k stat is gross income.

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ellery

ooh, one more bit from the article: "Once inflation returns, the central bank will need to sell assets into the market, to mop up the excess money it has created in fighting deflation. Similarly, the government must reduce its deficit to a size it can finance in the market. Otherwise, deflationary expectations may swiftly turn into expectations of above-target inflation. This may also happen if the debt sold in efforts to sterilise the monetary overhang is deemed beyond the government’s ability to service." this is what I have been wondering will happen, and I also wonder if we will see the housing market continue to deflate while inflation could ramp up again, and how that would last. I feel like there is so much banking and governmental manipulation that a strict Austrian school-style scenario might not happen? If anyone has… Read more »

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ellery

Domus, thank-you for the link. I have been following with interest (uh, no pun) various inflationary and deflationary scenarios for awhile, and I still find it the most challenging aspect to understand. Once you get past the basics, the scenarios become complicated and pretty interesting. From the link: "Is deflation a realistic likelihood? Core measures of inflation strongly suggest not. But one measure of expected inflation – the gap between yields on conventional and index-linked Treasuries – has collapsed to 14 basis points. Moreover, yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds are already where Japan’s were in 1996, six years after the latter’s crisis began." "…as explained by the great American economist Irving Fisher in the 1930s, 'debt deflation' – the rising real value of debt as prices fall – then becomes a lethal threat." If anyone is interested there is… Read more »

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Patiently Waiting

I just don't get how significant inflation can happen at this point.

Maybe the gubmint will mail $1000 gift certificates to every Canadian every month for the next several months. That would be about $33 billion a month.

The gift certificates can't be saved and have to redeemed at a car dealership/real estate office/furniture store/Future Shop before they expire at the end of the month.

Anyhow, I'm tired. Must go to bed.

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JohnD

Squidly,

if one closely reviews your last babblings…er, I mean…post, it is quite apparent that you reveal….. absolutely nothing.

Can you try again and actually make a point this time??

John

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ellery

"Can’t have both, except sequentially."

You could have monetary inflation with simultaneous deflation in some markets or vice versa, as I understand it.

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Drachen

Dave "Is it even 1/10th of what has been thrown at me?" See post #17 It's certainly more than 1/10th of what I have thrown at you. I've been practically defending you on occasion here. Not your ideas, they're complete trash, but there's no need for people to insult you on things that don't relate to your intelligence, your personality or your hygiene. Actually there's probably no valid reason for anyone here to insult you based on your hygiene either, I just threw that in there because I like saying things in threes. P.S. I find it quite amusing that you take my gentle teasing seriously. As I've said before your personality shows on the page, you read like a book (a bad book, Danielle Steel or someone like that, real pulpy crap that's only good for a long transatlantic… Read more »

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Drachen

Dave "The question of what prices will be in 100 years begged for the sarcastic response." Well it got the desired answer from you. You admitted your system will not work over that timetable. You avoided answering the obvious follow up question however, so I'll ask again. If your system is broken in the long run what's to make anyone believe it's going to work for even a few more years? Why do you so oppose the idea that your system could be in the process of breaking right now? If, as you say, your system is good now, when does it break? At what time between now and 100 years from now does it fail? Many many problems with your thesis Dave and, as always when cornered you simply ignore the issues. Stop sidestepping the issue and dragging it… Read more »

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