Nov 2008: Benchmark prices drop again
The benchmark price for a Single Family Home in greater Vancouver is now $666,525. Vancouver West is seeing the biggest drops in detached house and town homes. Both of those benchmark prices are now down at least 18.5% year over year. Overall the benchmark house price for Greater Vancouver has dropped $104,725 since May of 2008. That’s a few free cars worth for those keeping track. Thanks to cashisking and gadwin for pointing out these numbers.
Post any other interesting things you find in the stats package in the comments section below and I’ll update this post when I get a chance.
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December 2nd, 2008 at 10:48 am
Nothing in particular, but I found the graph on the last page of the stats pack most telling. It’s worth tilting your head sideways to look at.
December 2nd, 2008 at 10:51 am
Look at Van West side
-18% YOY
25 Homes sold … I’ll bet 5 weren’t pressured … FIVE!
Wait until Spring
December 2nd, 2008 at 10:52 am
Quick question for you dave;
“Times of turmoil, from which we always emerge, offer excellent opportunities to buy quality real estate,” says
REBGV president, Dave Watt. “For those whose personal finances allow them to get involved, there are opportunities
in today’s housing market that have not been seen in many years.
Umm, you mean like the people who bought last month and are already seeing their property decline in value?
December 2nd, 2008 at 10:59 am
May detached benchmark: $771,250
June detached benchmark: $765,654
July detached benchmark: $753,165
August detached benchmark: $737,985
September detached benchmark: $726,331
October detached benchmark: $695,962
November detached benchmark: $666,525
The price of a detached SFH dropped $29,427, or -4.2% in November. Overall, that’s a $104,725 drop from the peak price of $771,250 this May.
Sorry specuvestors, prices are still too high and have nowhere to go but DOWN, DOWN, and DOWN.
December 2nd, 2008 at 11:08 am
I am looking forward to the news this evening, it’s spin time!
December 2nd, 2008 at 11:09 am
Where’s Dave?
December 2nd, 2008 at 11:25 am
Wow – would that be a 13% MoM drop for Van West??
Stunning.
December 2nd, 2008 at 11:28 am
Van West Feb Benchmark 1,453k
Van West Nov Benchmark 1,116k
1,1225 dollars a day – gone
36k a month – gone
Down 23% since Feb … How’s your burger?
December 2nd, 2008 at 11:36 am
Interesting graph.
Extrapolating it, it appears that Spring of 2008(April-May) it peaked and has been in decline since.
Unless mistaken , a few sales of multi million dollar homes (ie $10 Million +) can skew the average, so it appears that few of these are doing so, the uber rich are hurting too… hence the average continues to decline and precipitously as well as we close out 2008.
The graph shows that someone who bought a benchmark SFH property this time last year (ie Dec 2007) would have made about $ 30,000 in the Spring, 2008, then the peak….and ” broke even ” in early August 2008 …and has now lost a total of $80,000 from Dec. 2007 (non peak) to this month of Nov. 2008
The specuvestors are being fed pablum that they should hold off till Spring 2009, when buyers come out of hibernation LOL. Reading THIS graph, if I were a specuvestor, I’d sell now, maybe even chase the market and bail out. In my view, this graph is one of many writings on the wall, but a pretty easy one to interpret.
December 2nd, 2008 at 11:38 am
Geez prices are dropping fast! Faster even than I thought they would. Anyone holding a speculative real estate investment is screwed – Prices have a way to go before it makes sense to buy, so I bet we’ll see at least a couple years of drops, just like US bubble markets.
A sincere thank you to the regulars here that have held out with common sense and data, things are just starting to get interesting.
December 2nd, 2008 at 11:47 am
According to the graph on the last page of the board’s report, average prices across all products groups are more or less almost back to late 2006 averages. crazy.
The graph is ridiculous. If the downslope of the graph over the last several months was a ski run, it would not be a triple-black diamond, it would instead be roped off with ‘Danger Cliff’ signs.
December 2nd, 2008 at 11:51 am
Here’s the neck-friendly version of the REBGV Average Price Graph for Nov 08.
December 2nd, 2008 at 11:51 am
Looking at the graph of benchmark prices with the just released November numbers plotted in, it’s hard to discern if a pattern is emerging…
oh wait, now I see it…
DOWN BABY!!!
The Vancouver real estate train is on a steep downward slope with no brakes. Anyone out there foolish enough to stand in front of it? Go on, buy a West side home… I dare you… it’s only money anyways.
December 2nd, 2008 at 11:58 am
“According to the graph on the last page of the board’s report, average prices across all products groups are more or less almost back to late 2006 averages. crazy.”
Seems perfectly sane to me. In fact, unless prices retreat further back than 2004, that would be crazy. But I understand what you mean, it’s so sane that it seems crazy.
December 2nd, 2008 at 12:29 pm
the realtors burped and snorted claiming to one and all that theres no sub-crime/slime in canada
guess what..they lied
Michael Shanks, is facing foreclosure on another sprawling West Vancouver home purchased in January for $4 million. “I was always told the safest place for your money is in the real estate market because it would never drop by 50 per cent, but that’s exactly what’s happened,” a congenial Judge said outside the court. “I watched the L.A. housing market fall and now I’m having to watch the B.C. market go down, too.”
“CMHC was never supposed to be in the business of insuring speculators.”
but experts say lending practices here were far more liberal than first thought. The question now is, will homeowners find themselves squeezed by huge debt loads and plummeting house prices? And if so, how deep will taxpayers have to dig to cover the losses?
At the time many in the real estate industry welcomed this competitive tit-for-tat
Real estate prices are falling, and a U.S.-style collapse could cost Canadian taxpayers plenty
December 2nd, 2008 at 12:38 pm
Re : What is it (RE) really worth ?
I recall a Condo project that was built just before the boom took off. The starting price was about $247,000 (early 2000′s)
A few months later…the developer “glued” a # 7 over the # 4…so the price was now $277,700 (ie $30,000 more) . Obviously too cheap for a new sign ,but it showed the market was picking up and the developer felt they could charge $30,000 more than the previous market price. The developer had land banked in the area for years, but it’s fair to say they made a profit regardless.
So, what IS it “worth ” ?
If these units have appreciated since then, all we really know is that the developer was happy at $247,000 ( original profit included )prior to the boom taking off. After that, its simply driven by a hot market created by and proportional to the number of greater fools. The smarter fools could have bought at $247,000, but there ya go…
So, if you wanted to buy in this condo complex, and want a unit…a suggestion would be to contact a smarter fool who bought at say $247,000 original price , who may still obtain a profit (say $259,900?)…versus a greater fool who bought a $247,000 unit for say $350,000 which may have been flipped several times and this greater fool can’t sell for less than say $350,000 without losing money.
Thus, sometimes it may actually pay to buy from the smarter fool and it is win – win for both sides. The only other option is to perch like a vulture… choose yer poison.
December 2nd, 2008 at 12:41 pm
15-
Great article, it absolutely drives me insane when people trumpet the notion that Canada’s lending standards were orders of magnitude more stringent than our US counterparts. If you wanted a mortgage during the bubble you were almost guaranteed to find a broker who could get it for you through one of these many great “innovations”.
December 2nd, 2008 at 12:42 pm
It’s actually slightly disappointing to me. I was expecting the benchmark to trend closer to average, in the 6-7% label. Instead it come in below 5%. I guess a Christmas/January plunge is becoming less likely and we’ll have to wait for a Spring recovery/hangover then.
Oh well, that gives developers a few month to finish whatever construction that’s going on, and pile on more inventory. I was hoping for a few shells soaking up the rain during the Olympics. That would be a great way to welcome to world. So much more dignified than a few lame statues.
December 2nd, 2008 at 12:51 pm
“it’s so sane that it seems crazy.” … precisely.
….
Looks like that ‘no good’ Kelvin Neufeld is flappin’ gums again. Fraser Valley sales down 62% from November 2007,same season as this November, 2008, of course, but according to Kelvin, there were seasonal factors:
We’re seeing the combined effects of a lack of consumer confidence with the overall global economy added to a typical seasonal slowdown,” Kelvin Neufeld, president of the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board said
c’est n’importe quoi with this guy!
December 2nd, 2008 at 1:23 pm
Article:
” Victoria Real Estate sales hit 9 year low ”
http://www.timescolonist.com/H.....story.html
Also:
A friend called me this morning and said a victorian home in Ohio sold for $12,900 on E Bay . If you have to sell RE on E-Bay..things are getting from baaad-to- wooooooooorse. (I wonder how much RE actually is on E-Bay? )
December 2nd, 2008 at 1:33 pm
And this price decline is hitting before people start to lose jobs en masse. I predict a spike in layoffs in the new year. Companies right now are just sitting tight waiting for the year to end then will clean house. the current economic crisis is a perfect excuse to reduce staff.
Rising unemployement will force sales in an already distressed market,and also take potential buyers out of the market, pushing the decline into what will be described as a freefall.
December 2nd, 2008 at 1:41 pm
Friends had been laid off from MDA and Accenture, and other companies. Strange that we do not have any access to the number and the media do not report it locally. In California, employers have to file documents in advance of layoffs, and these numbers are retrievable online by the public.
December 2nd, 2008 at 1:50 pm
squidly77, thanks for the link to that article. People in the mainstream media are finally starting to pull their heads out of the sand. (I could say their heads were somewhere else, but I’ve just had an outstanding cappuccino from my new espresso machine.)
I can certainly attest to what they’re saying about the “liar’s loans” in Canada. Several years before that Self-Employed Simplified program, I was able to get my very own CMHC-insured mortgage, liar-loan style. Not long out of school, working as an ESL tutor (making okay $$ but not too stable), and with 5% down, I was given 250K. Let’s say there was some degree of exaggeration on my part, but they bought it. Compounding the craziness, I took out a chunk of equity the next year to pay off my student loans–all based on my “higher” earnings. Thank god no one corroborated what I was claiming to earn with what actually showed up on my T4.
Now I’m no deadbeat, and I’d probably rather give up my arm than be unemployed for more than a few weeks, but those were some pretty risky underwriting standards. When the wife lost her job, we had to take in a couple of international students. I don’t know what people in similar situations would do now–I suspect that money-making gravy train of students from Korea, etc. is starting to slow down…
All I can say is that the taxpayer dodged a bullet in my case due to timing and shithouse-luck home appreciation. I pretty friggin’ glad that when we do get back in the market and buy our next place, we won’t be impacted by the increased premiums CMHC will probably be charging future buyers to make up for the coming bloodbath.
December 2nd, 2008 at 1:53 pm
” Victoria Real Estate sales hit 9 year low ”
Speaking of which … does anyone know the last year Van RE sales were this ‘challenged’? I think poster ‘inventory’ on rob chipman’s blog had it the worst from 1994, wonder how far it goes back historically to get less than the ~900 November sales of 2008.
December 2nd, 2008 at 1:54 pm
Good point Andrew. Just wait until starts grind to a halt and all those construction jobs are lost. It’s going to be a vicious circle all the way down.
December 2nd, 2008 at 2:16 pm
I just received an email from Jennifer Chen of the CBC Early Edition. Any buyers out there want to talk to the CBC?:
If this is you, please give her a call at 604-662-6117 or email her at jennifer.chen@cbc.ca
December 2nd, 2008 at 2:36 pm
Re; MDA noted in Post # 22 :
Doesn’t MDA have the Gov’t gig re: Real Estate info ( from BC Land Titles ) available on – line as opposed to going down to BC Land Titles offices for hard copies of the same info?
I recall that was a major coup for MDA to get this contract and one of its biggest $$$ cash cows.
Just wondering if the MDA lay-offs are related to RE meltdown due to declining RE activity .
December 2nd, 2008 at 2:39 pm
So the CBC are going to do a “oh noes, woe is me!” show. I bet they’ll all be saying “but who could have predicted it”, or “but my realestate agent said….”. I weep not.
December 2nd, 2008 at 2:53 pm
[i]but experts say lending practices here were far more liberal than first thought[/i]
now we’re experts!
December 2nd, 2008 at 3:34 pm
Do I have this straight?: 2 quarters of negative GDP = Recession.
2 years of negative GDP = Depression.
So why are the so called experts calling for a 3 year recession? Would this not a depression using their own standards?
Are any of these so called experts in the publics eye going to get it right? Bankers,Politicians,CEO’s,Real Estate Associations,Economists etc.
And they want our confidence back? Good luck with that, it will be a long, long time.
December 2nd, 2008 at 3:55 pm
Generally, two consecutive quarters of negative growth constitutes a “technical recession”…it could always go longer. I think a depression wouldn’t exist unless you had a worldwide recession followed by contracting international trade, asset and income deflation, as well as very high unemployment…..
Just my $0.02….
December 2nd, 2008 at 3:59 pm
From today’s stats: During November only 25 single family homes sold on the West side and there are ~1,000 active listings… implying 40 months of inventory (that’s 3-1/3 years if your not quick with division).
At this time last year there were 390 active listings of West side vancouver single family homes and 115 sales during November 2007 implying 3.4 months of inventory.
That’s better than a ten-fold increase in MOI.
The questions I have are:
“Who were the 25 buyers?”
“What planet are they from that they could have bought a West side single family home during November?”
Perhaps some of them have just sold a different Vancouver property and are simply moving up or moving down or even moving laterally within Vancouver. I pity the fools if they bought with cash.
December 2nd, 2008 at 4:14 pm
Can we say the following news is adding fuel to the fire?!
——————————————————-
Fire completely engulfs Richmond home
Darcy Wintonyk, ctvbc.ca
Fire has destroyed a large home in Richmond, B.C., only s everal kilometres away from the newly constructed speed skating oval that will be used during the 2010 Games.
The blaze broke out around 3 p.m. in the 6100-block of Azure Road. It is not known if anyone was in the home when the fire started.
The house may be under construction. Numerous pieces of scaffolding and building materials can be seen on the property.
Check back to CTV British Columbia for more on this developing story.
—————————————————–
December 2nd, 2008 at 4:57 pm
“only s everal kilometres away from the newly constructed speed skating oval that will be used during the 2010 Games.”
Huh?? What’s this meant to communicate? There must be Ten thousand homes “several kilometers away” from the oval. Hell, the airport’s a kilometer away. “Local man has suspicious handcream confiscated by a security guard, only several kilometres away from the newly constructed speed skating oval that will be used during the 2010 Games”.
December 2nd, 2008 at 5:22 pm
I need to rant, and I want to apologize in advance for my language. I’m not eloquent enough to do this any other way. If you are a homeowner and can handle this current market downturn, you are not the target of my rant.
To anyone who bought a house in the last year and is stressed out about this housing downturn: WHAT THE HELL WERE YOU THINKING? How could you believe that ANY asset could only go up? Especially when the same thing is available for rent at half the price? That should have set off loud alarm bells in your head. What sort of idiot would buy a car if you could rent one for HALF THE FUCKING PRICE and not have to pay for any of the maintenance?
You didn’t only hurt yourself, by taking part in a speculative market and bidding up prices you helped to ruin the livablility of this city. You chased out families that couldn’t afford livable spaces to set down roots. Families that were responsible and not willing to go deeply into debt for a speculative investment.
If you didn’t plan ahead for a downturn and are living on a tight margin you will get exactly what you deserve. Just don’t take anyone else out with you like that overextended fucker with 19 homes in santa clara that shot three executives after losing his job.
December 2nd, 2008 at 5:41 pm
#35 Anger ED
Well said and this kind of brutal honesty is very refreshing from all the oral sewage that some RE agents and high profile pumpers and developers (B Rennie et als).
December 2nd, 2008 at 6:46 pm
CMHC was never supposed to be in the business of insuring speculators.”
but experts say lending practices here were far more liberal than first thought.
Maybe more liberal than Dave or Geezer or Jimtan or Silverman thought, but not the many bears with their head screwed on strait. If you check the archives, you will find that I called CMHC insured mortgages “subprime by any other name”. If our affordability is as bad as ANY speculative U.S. area, we obviously have similar lending standards.
December 2nd, 2008 at 6:48 pm
I saw that house fire noted in post # 33
It was under renovation… A neighbour said they heard a loud explosion before it caught fire.
Apparently the owners were also living in the house but everyone got out. Guess is a propane blower heater used to dry the drywall mud , but who really knows at this point.
BTW:
CTV had a feature on RE tonire …some guy featured who just missed selling his condo before the market tanked and now has to lower his selling price. His optimistic view is that the house he wants to buy is now lower in price as well. Story also noted that if you bought 5 years ago your house price had doubled.. but if you try to get back in the market for the same house you are SOL , (at least for now )
Abbotsford is apparently defying the current RE trend ago, that market has gained based on recent stats.
December 2nd, 2008 at 6:49 pm
“I pity the fools if they bought with cash.”
I pity them more if they are levered to the gills with debt, Mickey.
December 2nd, 2008 at 7:00 pm
while we’re pitying people…
i pity the fools who bought in spectrum and don’t like concerts
i’m on a high floor in an office building (assuming better built) and i can hear all the metallica fans.
December 2nd, 2008 at 7:14 pm
“Abbotsford is apparently defying the current RE trend ago, that market has gained based on recent stats.”
A few months ago, I was trying to persuade two co-workers from buying condos in Abby. It seems prices match rent and income a bit better than Vancouver and its inner suburbs. One of arguments I tried was gas prices (commute to Burnaby) but even that’s less effective now.
I guess the price decreases are going from the inside-out. Abby prices will start dropping once they’re competing with Tri-Cities.
December 2nd, 2008 at 7:23 pm
Off topic but interesting… from the news1130 website.
Why would an 80 year old man have a mortgaged house? I have to wonder what the amortization period would be.
“There was another big winner handed a big cheque today as well. Robert Sibley, 80, of Gibsons is now 2 million dollars richer after he hit the BC-49 jackpot with a ‘Quick Pick’ ticket. Sibley says he plans to pay off the mortgage on his home…”
Crash
December 2nd, 2008 at 7:43 pm
Ed Anger
You can spot greedy monsters easily. They claim they’ll continue to buy and will not sell. Well if they love properties that much and are collecting them like stamp-collectors collecting stamps, why are they abusive when others posted news and stats of the current housing downturn.
………….
ps: Sometimes when I left a reply, the name “column” already had username filled in. If I’d no intention to leave a name and did not bother to check the name “column” is empty, I could end up leaving a reply with dont-know-whose-name.
December 2nd, 2008 at 7:47 pm
I don’t pity any of the fools who’ll go down in flames over the next year or so. The only fools I pity are the responsible taxpayers who will pay alot of the bill for this orgy of greed and stupidity.
December 2nd, 2008 at 7:47 pm
Nicalisa speaks again:
http://www.realestatetalks.com.....c1bf0f1edc
December 2nd, 2008 at 8:05 pm
REBGV FAKE STATS
Detached -8.6% yoy, expected rents $60,000
Attached -6.4% yoy,expected rents $40,000
Apartment -8.6% yoy,expected rents $25,000
Only fools were selling their homes in fear because this fake stated percentage is less than realtors fee plus anyone who reduced their prices over the limit,Gone baby gone.
Hey HOME OWNERS don’t let Realtors and their Boards make you fool don’t even let domestic idiots to take shat on your properties just take your listing off the market and say good bye to greedy dumbheads because hey VANCOUVER REAL ESTATE NEVER GO DOWN
December 2nd, 2008 at 8:09 pm
purely unscientific speculation, but by looking at this case-shiller graph, doesn’t it look like vancouver will hit at least 35% off peak prices at around 12 months after those very peak prices were hit? hmmm… that’s around spring… this spring should be very interesting…
December 2nd, 2008 at 8:21 pm
Abbotsford prices have definitely NOT been defying the price declines. Check the FVREB stats at http://www.fvreb.bc.ca Detached prices are down 9% from last November.
December 2nd, 2008 at 8:27 pm
yaa,
You can make better graph than that just take a pink marker and aline it on the bottom line by the way where were you before #46 when board is dumb here how would you apply shillers american garbage on vancouver are fucking paralized who look for shiller to help you creat a graph from across the border?
Just shut the fuck off and say good bye to earth you fucking idiot.
December 2nd, 2008 at 8:29 pm
Hey guys: Check out the Victoria blog — Avg. price of SFH down 16% from peak.
Check out the Alberta blog — Avg. price per sq. foot for SFH in Edmonton down 22% from peak.
Links are on your right.
December 2nd, 2008 at 8:38 pm
Calgary SFH avg. prices down 16% from peak.
December 2nd, 2008 at 8:51 pm
Apartment -8.6% yoy,expected rents $25,000
So THAT’S who pays $2,000/mo for a one bedroom! Nice countertops, eh?
December 2nd, 2008 at 9:03 pm
Vancouver Real Estate Never Go Down…..
Dude, you are incredibly malfunctioned.
December 2nd, 2008 at 9:14 pm
Like homedebtors used to crow about their on-paper price gains, now I’m going to crow about my on-paper price savings! I saved $104,000 in the past few months by being smart and strong enough not to follow the crowd. We all did. Go renting! Whose throwing money away now suckas?
December 2nd, 2008 at 9:14 pm
Who’s. I can count and spell.
December 2nd, 2008 at 9:35 pm
You can make better graph than that just take a pink marker and aline it on the bottom line by the way where were you before #46
does it have to be a pink marker? could i use a different colour? if it has to be pink, i’ll have to go to staples to buy one, because i don’t have one handy. or maybe i could just take a screenshot, and then use a paint program to draw one? would that be ok?
December 2nd, 2008 at 9:42 pm
Check it out before it gets flagged:
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....14342.html
December 2nd, 2008 at 9:45 pm
YAA,YEP!
December 2nd, 2008 at 10:10 pm
Here’s your chance to own a penthouse in the Woodwards building. If you missed the original release of the Woodwards condominiums, act now and purchase this rare home via assignment.
PH7-128 West Cordova St., Vancouver BC, V5K 2C4
$455,000
• Penthouse 7
W32 building (smaller, less busy building)
• 1 Bedroom
1 Bathroom
• West exposure
Large 97 squarefoot Balcony (Building W43 only has Juliette balconies)
592 Square Feet
1 Parking
• Over-height ceilings
HAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHA
or buy aramark for $129,000 next year nutslaps
December 2nd, 2008 at 10:11 pm
I have to exit my real estate position in Vancouver as I am heavily invested in the stock markets.
This is a 1 bedroom in the Woodwards District project, NW facing with unrestricted water view. The unit is on 32nd floor and is about 640 sq feet. It is in the W-43 building. Assignments for similar units are listed at about 20% premiums over this price at Rennie Assignment sales: http://www.condoassignments.co.....tings.html
I would sell the unit as soon as possible. I am entertaining offers for immediate sale and intend to sell to the best and resonable offer by November 21.
I have paid about $76000 down and the remainder of $380,000 will be due around September. I am also looking for someone who is willing to split the transaction cost.
Thank you,
Scott
December 2nd, 2008 at 10:12 pm
“Like homedebtors used to crow about their on-paper price gains, now I’m going to crow about my on-paper price savings! I saved $104,000 in the past few months by being smart and strong enough not to follow the crowd. We all did. Go renting! Whose throwing money away now suckas?”
Actually, when you include the interest that you haven’t paid on a declining investment, you’ve probably save a lot more than $104k (not to mention taxes and mainteance).
December 2nd, 2008 at 11:01 pm
Whoo-hoo! Time to update the price drop shopping spree I think. Just imagine the goodies you could buy with $104,000!!
http://vancouvercondo.info/200.....spree.html
December 2nd, 2008 at 11:04 pm
Well said, Anger Ed.
Too bad Disbelief totally missed your point.
Realtors do not cause prices to rise. Buyers do. Rinse. Repeat.
December 2nd, 2008 at 11:05 pm
The correction in Vancouver real estate prices that we are witnessing has only just begun. As satisfying as it has been to see that economic logic prevails… it is going to require patience to pull-off the important feat of buying “near” the bottom.
My guess is that it could take longer than just waiting for next spring. My guess is that the bottom is more likely to arrive sometime around the Winter Olympics. Is that irony? (I mean, given that so many people used to point to the Olympics as one of the reasons why real estate prices could keep going up even when it did not make economic sense).
December 2nd, 2008 at 11:07 pm
mickey –
agreed.
December 2nd, 2008 at 11:26 pm
Mickey–the window for a bottom will not open until under construction is back under 10K. The window doesn’t open until at least 2 years fromn now.
December 3rd, 2008 at 12:12 am
#57
“Check it out before it gets flagged:
http://vancouver.en.craigslist…..14342.html”
Whoa! Gutsy move.
December 3rd, 2008 at 12:25 am
Agree with VHB. No chance of a bottom until that inventory pipeline stops flowing. And that includes foreclosures, which aren’t even getting warmed up yet.
Also, you are going to have to wait some months after the Olympics to dissipate all of the false hope. There will be a lot of people expecting a rise in the market from the big Owe. You won’t see a market bottom until they capitulate.
And finally, you won’t see a bottom in Vancouver before you see a bottom in the US, because the US economy will not recover until housing bottoms there.
I honestly don’t understand why people are so impatient. What’s wrong with renting anyway? Don’t you enjoy the extra free time and lack of worries?
December 3rd, 2008 at 1:35 am
“I honestly don’t understand why people are so impatient. What’s wrong with renting anyway?”
I also don’t understand, my happiness doesn’t revolve around home ownership. IMO, people get emotional and it damages their rational.
I work overseas now with a Latvian guy, he would fit right it here with the Van bears, but he was powerless against his wife who had to have a place in Riga about 2 years ago. As you might know, Latvia is currently No. 1 in the house price crash sweepstakes. Prices vs. incomes in Latvia, as he described, a way more out of whack than Vancouver.
December 3rd, 2008 at 3:43 am
I also don’t understand, my happiness doesn’t revolve around home ownership.
Home ownership to me is just a matter of asset allocation. If the risk/return looks good, I’ll go for it, until then I won’t. I put my money where I get safety of capital and a decent yield. Money can’t buy happiness, but a stable net worth and disposable income help out a lot better than just having my name on a deed.
December 3rd, 2008 at 6:34 am
Vancovuer Sun article:
“Real Estate sales grind to standstill in November ”
http://www.vancouversun.com/Ho.....story.html
QUOTES
” His analysis for Bentall Investment Management showed that since 1981, B.C. house prices averaged about nine times a working British Columbian’s annual per-capita income.
However, since about 2001, B.C. prices have shot up to the equivalent of 14 times per capita income, which proved to be unaffordable for too many potential buyers.”
QUOTE:
“Somerville conducted his own analysis of Vancouver prices earlier this year that compared the cost of buying a house versus the cost of renting a similar unit. He concluded Vancouver real estate was 11-per-cent overvalued”.
QUOTE:
“People need to remember, “You should be buying a house for a place to live, not as an ATM machine,” he said”
December 3rd, 2008 at 6:46 am
Story re: Calgary Market
http://www.househunting.ca/buy.....9d07b977e1
QUOTE:
“CMHC figures for October show work started on 365 detached homes, down more than 46 per cent from the same month last year. For the first 10 months of this year, the decline is almost as severe — down 44.6 per cent — with 3,766 homes compared to 6,794 in 2007.
On the multi-family side cranes and crews started construction on just short of 6,700 apartments, townhouses and semi-detached units up to the end of October, up more than 25 per cent from the 5,334 units last year.
A look at the October numbers shows developers are already starting to rein in their activity — and so they should considering there are more than 10,000 units under construction in the various highrise projects putting dents in the skyline.”
However, this article is titled:
“There is light at the end of the tunnel”
Fortunes could change by mid -2009
Huh?
December 3rd, 2008 at 7:18 am
“I honestly don’t understand why people are so impatient. What’s wrong with renting anyway? Don’t you enjoy the extra free time and lack of worries?”
I want a garden. It’s really frustrating trying to grow a garden on balconies. Also, plants cost quite a lot of money and it takes time to create a garden of eden, as it were. I’m tired of beautifying some landlords space only to have the bulldozer come in and wipe out my masterpiece when the landlord decides to sell and the place gets demolished. So now I am on hold in terms of gardening, and I am a farmgirl at heart so I need to be working outside because that makes me happy. I’m not your typical housewifey type who might be happy cleaning the house and doing dishes HAHA that makes me laugh. How can anyone be happy from cleaning???
December 3rd, 2008 at 7:22 am
#67: “Whoa! Gutsy move.”
Thanks. I haven’t received any responses as of yet, but I will let you all know if any come in.
December 3rd, 2008 at 7:27 am
#57#67#74:
post was removed…
what was it?
December 3rd, 2008 at 7:31 am
“#57#67#74:
post was removed…
what was it?”
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....14342.html
December 3rd, 2008 at 7:36 am
Interesting graph showing the price history of Vancouver at the moment. I also saw a graph of the stock market showing all the gains since 2000 have been wiped out.
So far RE prices have gone back to 2006, and I fully anticipate RE prices will go back to 2000 just like the stock market has. Of course, my fervent wish is to see RE prices go back to mid-80′s, in inflation adjusted dollars, but that could be unrealistic.
Or is it?
In looking over condo’s in Burnaby near Central Park, I’m seeing what I would (comparatively to downtown Vancouver) say are affordable! sub-$300K for a 2 bed concrete highrise with sub-$250/mo maintenance fee is fairly priced. Except now I’m adjusting my price-point downwards. I’m willing to pay $250/sqft downtown, but out in Burnaby I’m willing to pay $125/sqft. So now I’m almost giddy at the thought that I could buy something now if I stinkbid at half the current asking price.
The days are getting interesting, verry interesting!
December 3rd, 2008 at 8:18 am
Public sentiment.
Interesting comment from Garth’s blog:
“#6 paulb on 12.03.08 at 12:36 am
I just watched Bond and there was a Scotia ad in the endless previews. The “You’re richer than you think” slogan was met with many moans and groans. Lol!”
December 3rd, 2008 at 8:37 am
Can you believe this was just 8 months ago! LOL
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/briti.....ecast.html
December 3rd, 2008 at 8:42 am
And here is the video version… Copy and paste, it’s worth it!
mms://a749.v8752e.c8752.g.vm.akamaistream.net/7/749/8752/1205544104000/origin.media.cbc.ca/windows/bc/ondemand/video/bc-080314-housing-1800-WILLIAMS.wmv
December 3rd, 2008 at 8:49 am
Thanks Phil, I’ve been jonesing for some retarded perma-bull arguments the last few days that article sated my thirst!
December 3rd, 2008 at 9:01 am
Re: #73
Why would anyone click me down for answering an honest question in an honest way?
If you don’t want honest answers then don’t ask the f*ing question!!!
Sheesh.
December 3rd, 2008 at 9:21 am
anony: #82
i love gardening too!
also some real cranky types on board here….
you’ll need a thick skin and a handle to
enjoy the ride down…..
somewhere out there a yard is calling your name……
December 3rd, 2008 at 9:45 am
#82
“Why would anyone click me down for answering an honest question in an honest way?”
I think the counter is wonky. Sometimes I click it once and it goes up 3. Sometimes I click up, and the thing goes down. wtf???
BTW, I agree with you 100%. I, too, need a garden but I also want animals. It’s hard to get on with life while renting. We’ve had two houses sold out from under us and it’s getting real stale.
December 3rd, 2008 at 9:53 am
“I pity the fools if they bought with cash.”
I pity them more if they are levered to the gills with debt, Mickey.
You shouldn’t. The more the leverage, the less the skin in the game to lose. The 0/40 crowd will walk and declare bankruptcy. They put nothing in and will lose nothing.
And don’t give me the “but they won’t be able to borrow for years” crap, debt is not income and they will be better off for not borrowing, just like the alcoholic is better off for having been cut off.
December 3rd, 2008 at 10:13 am
I think the counter is wonky. Sometimes I click it once and it goes up 3. Sometimes I click up, and the thing goes down. wtf???
If you vote up and two other people have voted the same comment up since you loaded the page it will appear that you’ve added three to the score, because it only refreshes for you when you vote.
Anonymous- Gardening is the perfect reason to buy a house at the right price. Sometimes picking a nickname can help your score because regular readers have a clearer understanding of where you’re coming from and can tell your comment apart from any trolling anonymous comments. Either way, I wouldn’t take any negative scoring personally. I’ve had comments voted down and its my blog!
December 3rd, 2008 at 10:14 am
Montery, watch out in Central Burnaby, especially the places around Ron MaClean Park, most of those places that are 5 years old are all rotting. I’ve seen some places last year around there for a nice size 2 bed/2 bath for 340k only to find out its a leaker. Those are probably the type of places your seeing today which are starting to look more afforable, but they’ve got a long way to drop and even then I wouldn’t touch them with someone else’s money.
December 3rd, 2008 at 10:23 am
Thanks everyone for your support of my gardening dream. From now on I will call myself “Lily pad” because I will have a little pond over in the corner of my garden.
December 3rd, 2008 at 10:30 am
Re Bankruptcy:
Have a family friend who played the stock market a lot, done so for years, and we used to chat often about his stock market plays.
One day he pulls me aside and said they had recently declared bankruptcy after having lost a sh*tload in the stock market … ( he said he had lost $500,000 ).
They owned a condo…but he said they came out quite well after the bankruptcy proceedings concluded. Apparently, the bankruptcy laws had been changed and they are allowed to retain a fair bit of their current assets including their condo, car etc.
BTW : He is an Accountant !
This is what he told me, so it may be worth investigating further for those in that sort of unfortunate situation or see it looming .
I think it is fair to say in this current economic climate that more and more bankruptcies will be coming forward in the near future, which may force the laws to be amended further, which may be a good thing or a bad thing. If it’s to one’s advantage now with the current laws, perhaps worth looking into it ASAP.
December 3rd, 2008 at 10:47 am
“Montery, watch out in Central Burnaby, especially the places around Ron MaClean Park, most of those places that are 5 years old are all rotting.”
I’ve been saying for years that this shoe will drop eventually. The results of shoddy construction in the bubble are going to be worse than the leaky condo crisis.
December 3rd, 2008 at 10:49 am
Phil #79: yeah that’s freaking funny. I added it to the wiki but you also inspired me to drill into CBC’s archives and pull out quotes from Kirk Williams on his famous “Realty Check” Q and A sessions. Some choice quotes are here. Here are two of my favourites from early March ’08.
How are those “dramatic equity increases” and “fundamentals” looking now? Not so good, and they are only to get worse. What a joke.
Thanks so much to the Pope for arranging for this wiki site. When we have MSM reporters, who are supposed to muckrake the story behind the story, barfing lines from CMHC, Sauder, CUBC, etc. without doing more research, they end up looking like fools. Let that be a lesson to the likes of poor Kirk Williams. It’s not enough anymore to parrot “experts” when the interweb offers many cogent counterpoints. Still bloggers cannot gain acceptance in the MSM though Calculated Risk’s Tanta was one of the few that managed it and she schooled. Bigtime.
Now all the “experts” and the reporters that enable them will forever be remembered on Pope’s “wiki of shame”.
December 3rd, 2008 at 10:53 am
Fortress halts withdrawals on Global Macro Fund… so tell me, are we going to be stuck paying for this crappy future lower-income housing project called the Olympic Village?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/.....refer=home
December 3rd, 2008 at 11:04 am
“And don’t give me the ‘but they won’t be able to borrow for years’ crap, debt is not income and they will be better off for not borrowing, just like the alcoholic is better off for having been cut off”
Great point. Credit teetotalers for a dry Vancouver. Of course a bad credit rating is not the only millstone for the bankrupt.
December 3rd, 2008 at 11:14 am
Somerville conducted his own analysis of Vancouver prices earlier this year that compared the cost of buying a house versus the cost of renting a similar unit. He concluded Vancouver real estate was 11-per-cent overvalued.
Since the all benchmarks have now declined more than that, Somerville has been proven wrong.
Somerville said. “In all likelihood, prices are going to continue to decline, but it’s not like I can tell you when they will hit the low point.”
Wasn’t that exactly what you were trying to do with that “study”, Tsur?
December 3rd, 2008 at 11:17 am
Phil #80, thanks for the video clip – it reminded me of the “angst” I felt over the last few years with the supidity going on in the local market and how I thought I was losing my mind as it did not make any sense to me.
“Viva the long overdue correction!”
December 3rd, 2008 at 11:27 am
Interesting story re: City of Vancouver CAO Judy Rogers:
City Manager Judy Rogers serves two masters: VANOC and City residents
http://www.straight.com/articl.....esidents?#
Quite the conflict eh ?
Didn’t some smart lawyer pick up on this ?
Stinks more and more !
December 3rd, 2008 at 11:56 am
Just a question:
Some of us were so focused on the housing bubble we gone sidelined by the stock market bubble.
Is there any other danger out there that we should be looking out for now?
December 3rd, 2008 at 12:21 pm
#97
lily pad:
1. climate change
2. peak oil
3. credit bubble
4. global population growth
everything else fades into irrelevance
December 3rd, 2008 at 12:21 pm
I posted a comment on one of this guys’s videos:
http://www.youtube.com/user/dunnerthegunner
And got this Youtube mail:
How about a bet!!!
I’m going to have to disagree with you about the city of Vancouver. My prediction is a 4% swing up or down in the next 4 months. You choose your prediction and the winner has to blog about it on Youtube. What do you say!
Of course, that was before the 8% benchmark drop numbers, so maybe he means starting *this* month.
December 3rd, 2008 at 12:22 pm
Western Separatist Says:
December 2nd, 2008 at 11:04 pm
Well said, Anger Ed.
Too bad Disbelief totally missed your point.
Realtors do not cause prices to rise. Buyers do. Rinse. Repeat.
I completely understood his point. I was merely saying that his point was refreshing from all the garbage that some Realtors and developers have been spouting lately. You are the one that totally missed my point.
December 3rd, 2008 at 12:24 pm
I had asked how far back one must go to get a November with less sales, ‘inventory’ on chipman’s blog rocks the casbah and put the numbers up, here they are, thanks inventory … you have to go back to 1988!!!!
REBGV SFH+TH+APT Unit sales (Nov 1980 to 2008)
YEAR UNITS SOLD
1980 362
1981 397
1982 437
1983 279
1984 378
1985 480
1986 455
1987 671
1988 672
1989 1140
1990 3352
1991 2242
1992 2786
1993 2434
1994 2256
1995 1830
1996 2870
1997 1837
1998 1595
1999 1866
2000 1791
2001 2674
2002 2650
2003 3115
2004 2594
2005 3064
2006 2416
2007 2952
2008 889
December 3rd, 2008 at 12:43 pm
“77 Montery Says:
December 3rd, 2008 at 7:36 am
In looking over condo’s in Burnaby near Central Park, sub-$300K for a 2 bed concrete highrise with sub-$250/mo maintenance fee is fairly priced. Except now I’m adjusting my price-point downwards. I’m willing to pay $250/sqft downtown, but out in Burnaby I’m willing to pay $125/sqft.”
It’s bears like yourself who keep adjusting their purchase prices downwards..in the end you will never end up buying because you always want it cheaper!
December 3rd, 2008 at 1:12 pm
“It’s bears like yourself who keep adjusting their purchase prices downwards..in the end you will never end up buying because you always want it cheaper!”
It’s bulls like yourself that keep holding their list prices high.. in the end you will never end up selling because you always want more money than the market will b-e-a-r!
December 3rd, 2008 at 2:56 pm
Look for prices to go down even further. There is zero sense to buy in the next 2 years from the investors perspective when there are much sweeter deal down south and they havent even bottomed out yet.
The world is in a recession = rock bottom for the tourism and less demand for Canadian resources. Even if property prices will drop another 50 percent; with a Grim world recession I’m curious if any investors will even buy given prices won’t go up again till like 2015. And investors are even reluctant buy stock options and you are asking us to buy property?
The only winners in this crisis are young couples or first time buyers that have equity. Condolences to those that bought in the last 2 years. Right now for many it’s not about living it’s about survivng eg families putting food on the table,paying bills on time.
In this crisis if you are a home owner consider yourself lucky if you can get 70 percent of market value. Buyers are looking one to 2 years down the road and some listings on mls are beyond funny.
December 3rd, 2008 at 3:03 pm
Re: Post # 101
REBGV data on Units sold 1980 – 2008
Interesting statistics with respect to gross sales numbers.
However , we have to keep in mind that since 1980
— the population has grown ,
— we had a post Expo 86 boom based on offshore investment
— liberalization in lending practices
— that a per capita number may also be useful (ie X sales per 1000).
(This is not to say that no matter how you slice it, the numbers actually do reflect a very bad RE market).
December 3rd, 2008 at 6:48 pm
Lily Pad:
Eat right and exercise. Nothing else is as important! Drink wine with friends, laugh, watch good movies, etc,etc. And you’ll still be dead in the end, and your toys don’t count.
Oh, practical matters you meant. Stay out of debt, keep a job you don’t hate, lose a job you do hate, but only after you find a job you don’t hate. A job you love is a nice bonus, and worth less money, but can’t be counted on.
Don’t spend money on things you you can’t afford, don’t need or don’t like.
Grow some laugh lines, not frown lines. Get old, wrinkly and happy. Cherish your sweetie, or find one. Dump the jerk if you need to.
Darn, I’m off practical matters. But these are the important ones.
December 4th, 2008 at 2:10 am
Lilly:
I’m with you, except instead of a garden I dream of a kitchen. Actually I frequently dream of the home I used to have. It wasn’t large (maybe 800 Sq Ft) but it was just perfect for me. And the kitchen! It was so well organized that there was tons and tons and TONS of counter space, yet you were never any more then 2 steps away from what you needed.
Like you I’m getting by renting. It’s been very hard to swallow my pride and first accept a place on my own that wasn’t what I used to have, then to move and find a roommate.
But I suck it up every day like I imagine you do. I put my feel on the floor when I get out of bed and I do my best for that day.
It’s been so damn hard to listen to people like Pandora and her stinky ol’ box with their faux cultivation and te snottiness that only comes with being nouveau riche. I’ve known some of the most accompliched people in Canada, including three Olympic gold medalists, a CBC news anchor and a very senior bank exec and *none* of them displayed her level of sanctimony.
These days it’s a little easier getting out of bed. I don’t bother discussing real estate with home owners any more. Why bother? Believe me, they ALL know EXACTLY how much they paid and though they may not admit it, they’re doing the math.
These days the math is all about subtraction. Or perhaps more accurately…. percentages.
The pendulum is coming back the other way. Nobody can stop it. we all knew this would happen…. now we get to switch sides with the bulls.