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December 2nd, 2008 at 8:29 pm
Hey guys: Check out the Victoria blog — Avg. price of SFH down 16% from peak.
Check out the Alberta blog — Avg. price per sq. foot for SFH in Edmonton down 22% from peak.
Links are on your right.
December 2nd, 2008 at 8:27 pm
yaa,
You can make better graph than that just take a pink marker and aline it on the bottom line by the way where were you before #46 when board is dumb here how would you apply shillers american garbage on vancouver are fucking paralized who look for shiller to help you creat a graph from across the border?
Just shut the fuck off and say good bye to earth you fucking idiot.
December 2nd, 2008 at 8:21 pm
Abbotsford prices have definitely NOT been defying the price declines. Check the FVREB stats at http://www.fvreb.bc.ca Detached prices are down 9% from last November.
December 2nd, 2008 at 8:09 pm
purely unscientific speculation, but by looking at this case-shiller graph, doesn’t it look like vancouver will hit at least 35% off peak prices at around 12 months after those very peak prices were hit? hmmm… that’s around spring… this spring should be very interesting…
December 2nd, 2008 at 8:05 pm
REBGV FAKE STATS
Detached -8.6% yoy, expected rents $60,000
Attached -6.4% yoy,expected rents $40,000
Apartment -8.6% yoy,expected rents $25,000
Only fools were selling their homes in fear because this fake stated percentage is less than realtors fee plus anyone who reduced their prices over the limit,Gone baby gone.
Hey HOME OWNERS don’t let Realtors and their Boards make you fool don’t even let domestic idiots to take shat on your properties just take your listing off the market and say good bye to greedy dumbheads because hey VANCOUVER REAL ESTATE NEVER GO DOWN
December 2nd, 2008 at 7:47 pm
Nicalisa speaks again:
http://www.realestatetalks.com.....c1bf0f1edc
December 2nd, 2008 at 7:47 pm
I don’t pity any of the fools who’ll go down in flames over the next year or so. The only fools I pity are the responsible taxpayers who will pay alot of the bill for this orgy of greed and stupidity.
December 2nd, 2008 at 7:43 pm
Ed Anger
You can spot greedy monsters easily. They claim they’ll continue to buy and will not sell. Well if they love properties that much and are collecting them like stamp-collectors collecting stamps, why are they abusive when others posted news and stats of the current housing downturn.
………….
ps: Sometimes when I left a reply, the name “column” already had username filled in. If I’d no intention to leave a name and did not bother to check the name “column” is empty, I could end up leaving a reply with dont-know-whose-name.
December 2nd, 2008 at 7:23 pm
Off topic but interesting… from the news1130 website.
Why would an 80 year old man have a mortgaged house? I have to wonder what the amortization period would be.
“There was another big winner handed a big cheque today as well. Robert Sibley, 80, of Gibsons is now 2 million dollars richer after he hit the BC-49 jackpot with a ‘Quick Pick’ ticket. Sibley says he plans to pay off the mortgage on his home…”
Crash
December 2nd, 2008 at 7:14 pm
“Abbotsford is apparently defying the current RE trend ago, that market has gained based on recent stats.”
A few months ago, I was trying to persuade two co-workers from buying condos in Abby. It seems prices match rent and income a bit better than Vancouver and its inner suburbs. One of arguments I tried was gas prices (commute to Burnaby) but even that’s less effective now.
I guess the price decreases are going from the inside-out. Abby prices will start dropping once they’re competing with Tri-Cities.
December 2nd, 2008 at 7:00 pm
while we’re pitying people…
i pity the fools who bought in spectrum and don’t like concerts
i’m on a high floor in an office building (assuming better built) and i can hear all the metallica fans.
December 2nd, 2008 at 6:49 pm
“I pity the fools if they bought with cash.”
I pity them more if they are levered to the gills with debt, Mickey.
December 2nd, 2008 at 6:48 pm
I saw that house fire noted in post # 33
It was under renovation… A neighbour said they heard a loud explosion before it caught fire.
Apparently the owners were also living in the house but everyone got out. Guess is a propane blower heater used to dry the drywall mud , but who really knows at this point.
BTW:
CTV had a feature on RE tonire …some guy featured who just missed selling his condo before the market tanked and now has to lower his selling price. His optimistic view is that the house he wants to buy is now lower in price as well. Story also noted that if you bought 5 years ago your house price had doubled.. but if you try to get back in the market for the same house you are SOL , (at least for now )
Abbotsford is apparently defying the current RE trend ago, that market has gained based on recent stats.
December 2nd, 2008 at 6:46 pm
CMHC was never supposed to be in the business of insuring speculators.”
but experts say lending practices here were far more liberal than first thought.
Maybe more liberal than Dave or Geezer or Jimtan or Silverman thought, but not the many bears with their head screwed on strait. If you check the archives, you will find that I called CMHC insured mortgages “subprime by any other name”. If our affordability is as bad as ANY speculative U.S. area, we obviously have similar lending standards.
December 2nd, 2008 at 5:41 pm
#35 Anger ED
Well said and this kind of brutal honesty is very refreshing from all the oral sewage that some RE agents and high profile pumpers and developers (B Rennie et als).
December 2nd, 2008 at 5:22 pm
I need to rant, and I want to apologize in advance for my language. I’m not eloquent enough to do this any other way. If you are a homeowner and can handle this current market downturn, you are not the target of my rant.
To anyone who bought a house in the last year and is stressed out about this housing downturn: WHAT THE HELL WERE YOU THINKING? How could you believe that ANY asset could only go up? Especially when the same thing is available for rent at half the price? That should have set off loud alarm bells in your head. What sort of idiot would buy a car if you could rent one for HALF THE FUCKING PRICE and not have to pay for any of the maintenance?
You didn’t only hurt yourself, by taking part in a speculative market and bidding up prices you helped to ruin the livablility of this city. You chased out families that couldn’t afford livable spaces to set down roots. Families that were responsible and not willing to go deeply into debt for a speculative investment.
If you didn’t plan ahead for a downturn and are living on a tight margin you will get exactly what you deserve. Just don’t take anyone else out with you like that overextended fucker with 19 homes in santa clara that shot three executives after losing his job.
December 2nd, 2008 at 4:57 pm
“only s everal kilometres away from the newly constructed speed skating oval that will be used during the 2010 Games.”
Huh?? What’s this meant to communicate? There must be Ten thousand homes “several kilometers away” from the oval. Hell, the airport’s a kilometer away. “Local man has suspicious handcream confiscated by a security guard, only several kilometres away from the newly constructed speed skating oval that will be used during the 2010 Games”.
December 2nd, 2008 at 4:14 pm
Can we say the following news is adding fuel to the fire?!
——————————————————-
Fire completely engulfs Richmond home
Darcy Wintonyk, ctvbc.ca
Fire has destroyed a large home in Richmond, B.C., only s everal kilometres away from the newly constructed speed skating oval that will be used during the 2010 Games.
The blaze broke out around 3 p.m. in the 6100-block of Azure Road. It is not known if anyone was in the home when the fire started.
The house may be under construction. Numerous pieces of scaffolding and building materials can be seen on the property.
Check back to CTV British Columbia for more on this developing story.
—————————————————–
December 2nd, 2008 at 3:59 pm
From today’s stats: During November only 25 single family homes sold on the West side and there are ~1,000 active listings… implying 40 months of inventory (that’s 3-1/3 years if your not quick with division).
At this time last year there were 390 active listings of West side vancouver single family homes and 115 sales during November 2007 implying 3.4 months of inventory.
That’s better than a ten-fold increase in MOI.
The questions I have are:
“Who were the 25 buyers?”
“What planet are they from that they could have bought a West side single family home during November?”
Perhaps some of them have just sold a different Vancouver property and are simply moving up or moving down or even moving laterally within Vancouver. I pity the fools if they bought with cash.
December 2nd, 2008 at 3:55 pm
Generally, two consecutive quarters of negative growth constitutes a “technical recession”…it could always go longer. I think a depression wouldn’t exist unless you had a worldwide recession followed by contracting international trade, asset and income deflation, as well as very high unemployment…..
Just my $0.02….
December 2nd, 2008 at 3:34 pm
Do I have this straight?: 2 quarters of negative GDP = Recession.
2 years of negative GDP = Depression.
So why are the so called experts calling for a 3 year recession? Would this not a depression using their own standards?
Are any of these so called experts in the publics eye going to get it right? Bankers,Politicians,CEO’s,Real Estate Associations,Economists etc.
And they want our confidence back? Good luck with that, it will be a long, long time.
December 2nd, 2008 at 2:53 pm
[i]but experts say lending practices here were far more liberal than first thought[/i]
now we’re experts!
December 2nd, 2008 at 2:39 pm
So the CBC are going to do a “oh noes, woe is me!” show. I bet they’ll all be saying “but who could have predicted it”, or “but my realestate agent said….”. I weep not.
December 2nd, 2008 at 2:36 pm
Re; MDA noted in Post # 22 :
Doesn’t MDA have the Gov’t gig re: Real Estate info ( from BC Land Titles ) available on – line as opposed to going down to BC Land Titles offices for hard copies of the same info?
I recall that was a major coup for MDA to get this contract and one of its biggest $$$ cash cows.
Just wondering if the MDA lay-offs are related to RE meltdown due to declining RE activity .
December 2nd, 2008 at 2:16 pm
I just received an email from Jennifer Chen of the CBC Early Edition. Any buyers out there want to talk to the CBC?:
If this is you, please give her a call at 604-662-6117 or email her at jennifer.chen@cbc.ca
December 2nd, 2008 at 1:54 pm
Good point Andrew. Just wait until starts grind to a halt and all those construction jobs are lost. It’s going to be a vicious circle all the way down.
December 2nd, 2008 at 1:53 pm
” Victoria Real Estate sales hit 9 year low ”
Speaking of which … does anyone know the last year Van RE sales were this ‘challenged’? I think poster ‘inventory’ on rob chipman’s blog had it the worst from 1994, wonder how far it goes back historically to get less than the ~900 November sales of 2008.
December 2nd, 2008 at 1:50 pm
squidly77, thanks for the link to that article. People in the mainstream media are finally starting to pull their heads out of the sand. (I could say their heads were somewhere else, but I’ve just had an outstanding cappuccino from my new espresso machine.)
I can certainly attest to what they’re saying about the “liar’s loans” in Canada. Several years before that Self-Employed Simplified program, I was able to get my very own CMHC-insured mortgage, liar-loan style. Not long out of school, working as an ESL tutor (making okay $$ but not too stable), and with 5% down, I was given 250K. Let’s say there was some degree of exaggeration on my part, but they bought it. Compounding the craziness, I took out a chunk of equity the next year to pay off my student loans–all based on my “higher” earnings. Thank god no one corroborated what I was claiming to earn with what actually showed up on my T4.
Now I’m no deadbeat, and I’d probably rather give up my arm than be unemployed for more than a few weeks, but those were some pretty risky underwriting standards. When the wife lost her job, we had to take in a couple of international students. I don’t know what people in similar situations would do now–I suspect that money-making gravy train of students from Korea, etc. is starting to slow down…
All I can say is that the taxpayer dodged a bullet in my case due to timing and shithouse-luck home appreciation. I pretty friggin’ glad that when we do get back in the market and buy our next place, we won’t be impacted by the increased premiums CMHC will probably be charging future buyers to make up for the coming bloodbath.
December 2nd, 2008 at 1:41 pm
Friends had been laid off from MDA and Accenture, and other companies. Strange that we do not have any access to the number and the media do not report it locally. In California, employers have to file documents in advance of layoffs, and these numbers are retrievable online by the public.
December 2nd, 2008 at 1:33 pm
And this price decline is hitting before people start to lose jobs en masse. I predict a spike in layoffs in the new year. Companies right now are just sitting tight waiting for the year to end then will clean house. the current economic crisis is a perfect excuse to reduce staff.
Rising unemployement will force sales in an already distressed market,and also take potential buyers out of the market, pushing the decline into what will be described as a freefall.
December 2nd, 2008 at 1:23 pm
Article:
” Victoria Real Estate sales hit 9 year low ”
http://www.timescolonist.com/H.....story.html
Also:
A friend called me this morning and said a victorian home in Ohio sold for $12,900 on E Bay . If you have to sell RE on E-Bay..things are getting from baaad-to- wooooooooorse. (I wonder how much RE actually is on E-Bay? )
December 2nd, 2008 at 12:51 pm
“it’s so sane that it seems crazy.” … precisely.
….
Looks like that ‘no good’ Kelvin Neufeld is flappin’ gums again. Fraser Valley sales down 62% from November 2007,same season as this November, 2008, of course, but according to Kelvin, there were seasonal factors:
We’re seeing the combined effects of a lack of consumer confidence with the overall global economy added to a typical seasonal slowdown,” Kelvin Neufeld, president of the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board said
c’est n’importe quoi with this guy!
December 2nd, 2008 at 12:42 pm
It’s actually slightly disappointing to me. I was expecting the benchmark to trend closer to average, in the 6-7% label. Instead it come in below 5%. I guess a Christmas/January plunge is becoming less likely and we’ll have to wait for a Spring recovery/hangover then.
Oh well, that gives developers a few month to finish whatever construction that’s going on, and pile on more inventory. I was hoping for a few shells soaking up the rain during the Olympics. That would be a great way to welcome to world. So much more dignified than a few lame statues.
December 2nd, 2008 at 12:41 pm
15-
Great article, it absolutely drives me insane when people trumpet the notion that Canada’s lending standards were orders of magnitude more stringent than our US counterparts. If you wanted a mortgage during the bubble you were almost guaranteed to find a broker who could get it for you through one of these many great “innovations”.
December 2nd, 2008 at 12:38 pm
Re : What is it (RE) really worth ?
I recall a Condo project that was built just before the boom took off. The starting price was about $247,000 (early 2000′s)
A few months later…the developer “glued” a # 7 over the # 4…so the price was now $277,700 (ie $30,000 more) . Obviously too cheap for a new sign ,but it showed the market was picking up and the developer felt they could charge $30,000 more than the previous market price. The developer had land banked in the area for years, but it’s fair to say they made a profit regardless.
So, what IS it “worth ” ?
If these units have appreciated since then, all we really know is that the developer was happy at $247,000 ( original profit included )prior to the boom taking off. After that, its simply driven by a hot market created by and proportional to the number of greater fools. The smarter fools could have bought at $247,000, but there ya go…
So, if you wanted to buy in this condo complex, and want a unit…a suggestion would be to contact a smarter fool who bought at say $247,000 original price , who may still obtain a profit (say $259,900?)…versus a greater fool who bought a $247,000 unit for say $350,000 which may have been flipped several times and this greater fool can’t sell for less than say $350,000 without losing money.
Thus, sometimes it may actually pay to buy from the smarter fool and it is win – win for both sides. The only other option is to perch like a vulture… choose yer poison.
December 2nd, 2008 at 12:29 pm
the realtors burped and snorted claiming to one and all that theres no sub-crime/slime in canada
guess what..they lied
Michael Shanks, is facing foreclosure on another sprawling West Vancouver home purchased in January for $4 million. “I was always told the safest place for your money is in the real estate market because it would never drop by 50 per cent, but that’s exactly what’s happened,” a congenial Judge said outside the court. “I watched the L.A. housing market fall and now I’m having to watch the B.C. market go down, too.”
“CMHC was never supposed to be in the business of insuring speculators.”
but experts say lending practices here were far more liberal than first thought. The question now is, will homeowners find themselves squeezed by huge debt loads and plummeting house prices? And if so, how deep will taxpayers have to dig to cover the losses?
At the time many in the real estate industry welcomed this competitive tit-for-tat
Real estate prices are falling, and a U.S.-style collapse could cost Canadian taxpayers plenty
December 2nd, 2008 at 11:58 am
“According to the graph on the last page of the board’s report, average prices across all products groups are more or less almost back to late 2006 averages. crazy.”
Seems perfectly sane to me. In fact, unless prices retreat further back than 2004, that would be crazy. But I understand what you mean, it’s so sane that it seems crazy.
December 2nd, 2008 at 11:51 am
Looking at the graph of benchmark prices with the just released November numbers plotted in, it’s hard to discern if a pattern is emerging…
oh wait, now I see it…
DOWN BABY!!!
The Vancouver real estate train is on a steep downward slope with no brakes. Anyone out there foolish enough to stand in front of it? Go on, buy a West side home… I dare you… it’s only money anyways.
December 2nd, 2008 at 11:51 am
Here’s the neck-friendly version of the REBGV Average Price Graph for Nov 08.
December 2nd, 2008 at 11:47 am
According to the graph on the last page of the board’s report, average prices across all products groups are more or less almost back to late 2006 averages. crazy.
The graph is ridiculous. If the downslope of the graph over the last several months was a ski run, it would not be a triple-black diamond, it would instead be roped off with ‘Danger Cliff’ signs.
December 2nd, 2008 at 11:38 am
Geez prices are dropping fast! Faster even than I thought they would. Anyone holding a speculative real estate investment is screwed – Prices have a way to go before it makes sense to buy, so I bet we’ll see at least a couple years of drops, just like US bubble markets.
A sincere thank you to the regulars here that have held out with common sense and data, things are just starting to get interesting.
December 2nd, 2008 at 11:36 am
Interesting graph.
Extrapolating it, it appears that Spring of 2008(April-May) it peaked and has been in decline since.
Unless mistaken , a few sales of multi million dollar homes (ie $10 Million +) can skew the average, so it appears that few of these are doing so, the uber rich are hurting too… hence the average continues to decline and precipitously as well as we close out 2008.
The graph shows that someone who bought a benchmark SFH property this time last year (ie Dec 2007) would have made about $ 30,000 in the Spring, 2008, then the peak….and ” broke even ” in early August 2008 …and has now lost a total of $80,000 from Dec. 2007 (non peak) to this month of Nov. 2008
The specuvestors are being fed pablum that they should hold off till Spring 2009, when buyers come out of hibernation LOL. Reading THIS graph, if I were a specuvestor, I’d sell now, maybe even chase the market and bail out. In my view, this graph is one of many writings on the wall, but a pretty easy one to interpret.
December 2nd, 2008 at 11:28 am
Van West Feb Benchmark 1,453k
Van West Nov Benchmark 1,116k
1,1225 dollars a day – gone
36k a month – gone
Down 23% since Feb … How’s your burger?
December 2nd, 2008 at 11:25 am
Wow – would that be a 13% MoM drop for Van West??
Stunning.
December 2nd, 2008 at 11:09 am
Where’s Dave?
December 2nd, 2008 at 11:08 am
I am looking forward to the news this evening, it’s spin time!
December 2nd, 2008 at 10:59 am
May detached benchmark: $771,250
June detached benchmark: $765,654
July detached benchmark: $753,165
August detached benchmark: $737,985
September detached benchmark: $726,331
October detached benchmark: $695,962
November detached benchmark: $666,525
The price of a detached SFH dropped $29,427, or -4.2% in November. Overall, that’s a $104,725 drop from the peak price of $771,250 this May.
Sorry specuvestors, prices are still too high and have nowhere to go but DOWN, DOWN, and DOWN.
December 2nd, 2008 at 10:52 am
Quick question for you dave;
“Times of turmoil, from which we always emerge, offer excellent opportunities to buy quality real estate,” says
REBGV president, Dave Watt. “For those whose personal finances allow them to get involved, there are opportunities
in today’s housing market that have not been seen in many years.
Umm, you mean like the people who bought last month and are already seeing their property decline in value?
December 2nd, 2008 at 10:51 am
Look at Van West side
-18% YOY
25 Homes sold … I’ll bet 5 weren’t pressured … FIVE!
Wait until Spring
December 2nd, 2008 at 10:48 am
Nothing in particular, but I found the graph on the last page of the stats pack most telling. It’s worth tilting your head sideways to look at.