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December 3rd, 2008 at 12:22 pm
Western Separatist Says:
December 2nd, 2008 at 11:04 pm
Well said, Anger Ed.
Too bad Disbelief totally missed your point.
Realtors do not cause prices to rise. Buyers do. Rinse. Repeat.
I completely understood his point. I was merely saying that his point was refreshing from all the garbage that some Realtors and developers have been spouting lately. You are the one that totally missed my point.
December 3rd, 2008 at 12:21 pm
I posted a comment on one of this guys’s videos:
http://www.youtube.com/user/dunnerthegunner
And got this Youtube mail:
How about a bet!!!
I’m going to have to disagree with you about the city of Vancouver. My prediction is a 4% swing up or down in the next 4 months. You choose your prediction and the winner has to blog about it on Youtube. What do you say!
Of course, that was before the 8% benchmark drop numbers, so maybe he means starting *this* month.
December 3rd, 2008 at 12:21 pm
#97
lily pad:
1. climate change
2. peak oil
3. credit bubble
4. global population growth
everything else fades into irrelevance
December 3rd, 2008 at 11:56 am
Just a question:
Some of us were so focused on the housing bubble we gone sidelined by the stock market bubble.
Is there any other danger out there that we should be looking out for now?
December 3rd, 2008 at 11:27 am
Interesting story re: City of Vancouver CAO Judy Rogers:
City Manager Judy Rogers serves two masters: VANOC and City residents
http://www.straight.com/articl.....esidents?#
Quite the conflict eh ?
Didn’t some smart lawyer pick up on this ?
Stinks more and more !
December 3rd, 2008 at 11:17 am
Phil #80, thanks for the video clip – it reminded me of the “angst” I felt over the last few years with the supidity going on in the local market and how I thought I was losing my mind as it did not make any sense to me.
“Viva the long overdue correction!”
December 3rd, 2008 at 11:14 am
Somerville conducted his own analysis of Vancouver prices earlier this year that compared the cost of buying a house versus the cost of renting a similar unit. He concluded Vancouver real estate was 11-per-cent overvalued.
Since the all benchmarks have now declined more than that, Somerville has been proven wrong.
Somerville said. “In all likelihood, prices are going to continue to decline, but it’s not like I can tell you when they will hit the low point.”
Wasn’t that exactly what you were trying to do with that “study”, Tsur?
December 3rd, 2008 at 11:04 am
“And don’t give me the ‘but they won’t be able to borrow for years’ crap, debt is not income and they will be better off for not borrowing, just like the alcoholic is better off for having been cut off”
Great point. Credit teetotalers for a dry Vancouver. Of course a bad credit rating is not the only millstone for the bankrupt.
December 3rd, 2008 at 10:53 am
Fortress halts withdrawals on Global Macro Fund… so tell me, are we going to be stuck paying for this crappy future lower-income housing project called the Olympic Village?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/.....refer=home
December 3rd, 2008 at 10:49 am
Phil #79: yeah that’s freaking funny. I added it to the wiki but you also inspired me to drill into CBC’s archives and pull out quotes from Kirk Williams on his famous “Realty Check” Q and A sessions. Some choice quotes are here. Here are two of my favourites from early March ’08.
How are those “dramatic equity increases” and “fundamentals” looking now? Not so good, and they are only to get worse. What a joke.
Thanks so much to the Pope for arranging for this wiki site. When we have MSM reporters, who are supposed to muckrake the story behind the story, barfing lines from CMHC, Sauder, CUBC, etc. without doing more research, they end up looking like fools. Let that be a lesson to the likes of poor Kirk Williams. It’s not enough anymore to parrot “experts” when the interweb offers many cogent counterpoints. Still bloggers cannot gain acceptance in the MSM though Calculated Risk’s Tanta was one of the few that managed it and she schooled. Bigtime.
Now all the “experts” and the reporters that enable them will forever be remembered on Pope’s “wiki of shame”.
December 3rd, 2008 at 10:47 am
“Montery, watch out in Central Burnaby, especially the places around Ron MaClean Park, most of those places that are 5 years old are all rotting.”
I’ve been saying for years that this shoe will drop eventually. The results of shoddy construction in the bubble are going to be worse than the leaky condo crisis.
December 3rd, 2008 at 10:30 am
Re Bankruptcy:
Have a family friend who played the stock market a lot, done so for years, and we used to chat often about his stock market plays.
One day he pulls me aside and said they had recently declared bankruptcy after having lost a sh*tload in the stock market … ( he said he had lost $500,000 ).
They owned a condo…but he said they came out quite well after the bankruptcy proceedings concluded. Apparently, the bankruptcy laws had been changed and they are allowed to retain a fair bit of their current assets including their condo, car etc.
BTW : He is an Accountant !
This is what he told me, so it may be worth investigating further for those in that sort of unfortunate situation or see it looming .
I think it is fair to say in this current economic climate that more and more bankruptcies will be coming forward in the near future, which may force the laws to be amended further, which may be a good thing or a bad thing. If it’s to one’s advantage now with the current laws, perhaps worth looking into it ASAP.
December 3rd, 2008 at 10:23 am
Thanks everyone for your support of my gardening dream. From now on I will call myself “Lily pad” because I will have a little pond over in the corner of my garden.
December 3rd, 2008 at 10:14 am
Montery, watch out in Central Burnaby, especially the places around Ron MaClean Park, most of those places that are 5 years old are all rotting. I’ve seen some places last year around there for a nice size 2 bed/2 bath for 340k only to find out its a leaker. Those are probably the type of places your seeing today which are starting to look more afforable, but they’ve got a long way to drop and even then I wouldn’t touch them with someone else’s money.
December 3rd, 2008 at 10:13 am
I think the counter is wonky. Sometimes I click it once and it goes up 3. Sometimes I click up, and the thing goes down. wtf???
If you vote up and two other people have voted the same comment up since you loaded the page it will appear that you’ve added three to the score, because it only refreshes for you when you vote.
Anonymous- Gardening is the perfect reason to buy a house at the right price. Sometimes picking a nickname can help your score because regular readers have a clearer understanding of where you’re coming from and can tell your comment apart from any trolling anonymous comments. Either way, I wouldn’t take any negative scoring personally. I’ve had comments voted down and its my blog!
December 3rd, 2008 at 9:53 am
“I pity the fools if they bought with cash.”
I pity them more if they are levered to the gills with debt, Mickey.
You shouldn’t. The more the leverage, the less the skin in the game to lose. The 0/40 crowd will walk and declare bankruptcy. They put nothing in and will lose nothing.
And don’t give me the “but they won’t be able to borrow for years” crap, debt is not income and they will be better off for not borrowing, just like the alcoholic is better off for having been cut off.
December 3rd, 2008 at 9:45 am
#82
“Why would anyone click me down for answering an honest question in an honest way?”
I think the counter is wonky. Sometimes I click it once and it goes up 3. Sometimes I click up, and the thing goes down. wtf???
BTW, I agree with you 100%. I, too, need a garden but I also want animals. It’s hard to get on with life while renting. We’ve had two houses sold out from under us and it’s getting real stale.
December 3rd, 2008 at 9:21 am
anony: #82
i love gardening too!
also some real cranky types on board here….
you’ll need a thick skin and a handle to
enjoy the ride down…..
somewhere out there a yard is calling your name……
December 3rd, 2008 at 9:01 am
Re: #73
Why would anyone click me down for answering an honest question in an honest way?
If you don’t want honest answers then don’t ask the f*ing question!!!
Sheesh.
December 3rd, 2008 at 8:49 am
Thanks Phil, I’ve been jonesing for some retarded perma-bull arguments the last few days that article sated my thirst!
December 3rd, 2008 at 8:42 am
And here is the video version… Copy and paste, it’s worth it!
mms://a749.v8752e.c8752.g.vm.akamaistream.net/7/749/8752/1205544104000/origin.media.cbc.ca/windows/bc/ondemand/video/bc-080314-housing-1800-WILLIAMS.wmv
December 3rd, 2008 at 8:37 am
Can you believe this was just 8 months ago! LOL
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/briti.....ecast.html
December 3rd, 2008 at 8:18 am
Public sentiment.
Interesting comment from Garth’s blog:
“#6 paulb on 12.03.08 at 12:36 am
I just watched Bond and there was a Scotia ad in the endless previews. The “You’re richer than you think” slogan was met with many moans and groans. Lol!”
December 3rd, 2008 at 7:36 am
Interesting graph showing the price history of Vancouver at the moment. I also saw a graph of the stock market showing all the gains since 2000 have been wiped out.
So far RE prices have gone back to 2006, and I fully anticipate RE prices will go back to 2000 just like the stock market has. Of course, my fervent wish is to see RE prices go back to mid-80′s, in inflation adjusted dollars, but that could be unrealistic.
Or is it?
In looking over condo’s in Burnaby near Central Park, I’m seeing what I would (comparatively to downtown Vancouver) say are affordable! sub-$300K for a 2 bed concrete highrise with sub-$250/mo maintenance fee is fairly priced. Except now I’m adjusting my price-point downwards. I’m willing to pay $250/sqft downtown, but out in Burnaby I’m willing to pay $125/sqft. So now I’m almost giddy at the thought that I could buy something now if I stinkbid at half the current asking price.
The days are getting interesting, verry interesting!
December 3rd, 2008 at 7:31 am
“#57#67#74:
post was removed…
what was it?”
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....14342.html
December 3rd, 2008 at 7:27 am
#57#67#74:
post was removed…
what was it?
December 3rd, 2008 at 7:22 am
#67: “Whoa! Gutsy move.”
Thanks. I haven’t received any responses as of yet, but I will let you all know if any come in.
December 3rd, 2008 at 7:18 am
“I honestly don’t understand why people are so impatient. What’s wrong with renting anyway? Don’t you enjoy the extra free time and lack of worries?”
I want a garden. It’s really frustrating trying to grow a garden on balconies. Also, plants cost quite a lot of money and it takes time to create a garden of eden, as it were. I’m tired of beautifying some landlords space only to have the bulldozer come in and wipe out my masterpiece when the landlord decides to sell and the place gets demolished. So now I am on hold in terms of gardening, and I am a farmgirl at heart so I need to be working outside because that makes me happy. I’m not your typical housewifey type who might be happy cleaning the house and doing dishes HAHA that makes me laugh. How can anyone be happy from cleaning???
December 3rd, 2008 at 6:46 am
Story re: Calgary Market
http://www.househunting.ca/buy.....9d07b977e1
QUOTE:
“CMHC figures for October show work started on 365 detached homes, down more than 46 per cent from the same month last year. For the first 10 months of this year, the decline is almost as severe — down 44.6 per cent — with 3,766 homes compared to 6,794 in 2007.
On the multi-family side cranes and crews started construction on just short of 6,700 apartments, townhouses and semi-detached units up to the end of October, up more than 25 per cent from the 5,334 units last year.
A look at the October numbers shows developers are already starting to rein in their activity — and so they should considering there are more than 10,000 units under construction in the various highrise projects putting dents in the skyline.”
However, this article is titled:
“There is light at the end of the tunnel”
Fortunes could change by mid -2009
Huh?
December 3rd, 2008 at 6:34 am
Vancovuer Sun article:
“Real Estate sales grind to standstill in November ”
http://www.vancouversun.com/Ho.....story.html
QUOTES
” His analysis for Bentall Investment Management showed that since 1981, B.C. house prices averaged about nine times a working British Columbian’s annual per-capita income.
However, since about 2001, B.C. prices have shot up to the equivalent of 14 times per capita income, which proved to be unaffordable for too many potential buyers.”
QUOTE:
“Somerville conducted his own analysis of Vancouver prices earlier this year that compared the cost of buying a house versus the cost of renting a similar unit. He concluded Vancouver real estate was 11-per-cent overvalued”.
QUOTE:
“People need to remember, “You should be buying a house for a place to live, not as an ATM machine,” he said”
December 3rd, 2008 at 3:43 am
I also don’t understand, my happiness doesn’t revolve around home ownership.
Home ownership to me is just a matter of asset allocation. If the risk/return looks good, I’ll go for it, until then I won’t. I put my money where I get safety of capital and a decent yield. Money can’t buy happiness, but a stable net worth and disposable income help out a lot better than just having my name on a deed.
December 3rd, 2008 at 1:35 am
“I honestly don’t understand why people are so impatient. What’s wrong with renting anyway?”
I also don’t understand, my happiness doesn’t revolve around home ownership. IMO, people get emotional and it damages their rational.
I work overseas now with a Latvian guy, he would fit right it here with the Van bears, but he was powerless against his wife who had to have a place in Riga about 2 years ago. As you might know, Latvia is currently No. 1 in the house price crash sweepstakes. Prices vs. incomes in Latvia, as he described, a way more out of whack than Vancouver.
December 3rd, 2008 at 12:25 am
Agree with VHB. No chance of a bottom until that inventory pipeline stops flowing. And that includes foreclosures, which aren’t even getting warmed up yet.
Also, you are going to have to wait some months after the Olympics to dissipate all of the false hope. There will be a lot of people expecting a rise in the market from the big Owe. You won’t see a market bottom until they capitulate.
And finally, you won’t see a bottom in Vancouver before you see a bottom in the US, because the US economy will not recover until housing bottoms there.
I honestly don’t understand why people are so impatient. What’s wrong with renting anyway? Don’t you enjoy the extra free time and lack of worries?
December 3rd, 2008 at 12:12 am
#57
“Check it out before it gets flagged:
http://vancouver.en.craigslist…..14342.html”
Whoa! Gutsy move.
December 2nd, 2008 at 11:26 pm
Mickey–the window for a bottom will not open until under construction is back under 10K. The window doesn’t open until at least 2 years fromn now.
December 2nd, 2008 at 11:07 pm
mickey –
agreed.
December 2nd, 2008 at 11:05 pm
The correction in Vancouver real estate prices that we are witnessing has only just begun. As satisfying as it has been to see that economic logic prevails… it is going to require patience to pull-off the important feat of buying “near” the bottom.
My guess is that it could take longer than just waiting for next spring. My guess is that the bottom is more likely to arrive sometime around the Winter Olympics. Is that irony? (I mean, given that so many people used to point to the Olympics as one of the reasons why real estate prices could keep going up even when it did not make economic sense).
December 2nd, 2008 at 11:04 pm
Well said, Anger Ed.
Too bad Disbelief totally missed your point.
Realtors do not cause prices to rise. Buyers do. Rinse. Repeat.
December 2nd, 2008 at 11:01 pm
Whoo-hoo! Time to update the price drop shopping spree I think. Just imagine the goodies you could buy with $104,000!!
http://vancouvercondo.info/200.....spree.html
December 2nd, 2008 at 10:12 pm
“Like homedebtors used to crow about their on-paper price gains, now I’m going to crow about my on-paper price savings! I saved $104,000 in the past few months by being smart and strong enough not to follow the crowd. We all did. Go renting! Whose throwing money away now suckas?”
Actually, when you include the interest that you haven’t paid on a declining investment, you’ve probably save a lot more than $104k (not to mention taxes and mainteance).
December 2nd, 2008 at 10:11 pm
I have to exit my real estate position in Vancouver as I am heavily invested in the stock markets.
This is a 1 bedroom in the Woodwards District project, NW facing with unrestricted water view. The unit is on 32nd floor and is about 640 sq feet. It is in the W-43 building. Assignments for similar units are listed at about 20% premiums over this price at Rennie Assignment sales: http://www.condoassignments.co.....tings.html
I would sell the unit as soon as possible. I am entertaining offers for immediate sale and intend to sell to the best and resonable offer by November 21.
I have paid about $76000 down and the remainder of $380,000 will be due around September. I am also looking for someone who is willing to split the transaction cost.
Thank you,
Scott
December 2nd, 2008 at 10:10 pm
Here’s your chance to own a penthouse in the Woodwards building. If you missed the original release of the Woodwards condominiums, act now and purchase this rare home via assignment.
PH7-128 West Cordova St., Vancouver BC, V5K 2C4
$455,000
• Penthouse 7
W32 building (smaller, less busy building)
• 1 Bedroom
1 Bathroom
• West exposure
Large 97 squarefoot Balcony (Building W43 only has Juliette balconies)
592 Square Feet
1 Parking
• Over-height ceilings
HAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHA
or buy aramark for $129,000 next year nutslaps
December 2nd, 2008 at 9:45 pm
YAA,YEP!
December 2nd, 2008 at 9:42 pm
Check it out before it gets flagged:
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....14342.html
December 2nd, 2008 at 9:35 pm
You can make better graph than that just take a pink marker and aline it on the bottom line by the way where were you before #46
does it have to be a pink marker? could i use a different colour? if it has to be pink, i’ll have to go to staples to buy one, because i don’t have one handy. or maybe i could just take a screenshot, and then use a paint program to draw one? would that be ok?
December 2nd, 2008 at 9:14 pm
Who’s. I can count and spell.
December 2nd, 2008 at 9:14 pm
Like homedebtors used to crow about their on-paper price gains, now I’m going to crow about my on-paper price savings! I saved $104,000 in the past few months by being smart and strong enough not to follow the crowd. We all did. Go renting! Whose throwing money away now suckas?
December 2nd, 2008 at 9:03 pm
Vancouver Real Estate Never Go Down…..
Dude, you are incredibly malfunctioned.
December 2nd, 2008 at 8:51 pm
Apartment -8.6% yoy,expected rents $25,000
So THAT’S who pays $2,000/mo for a one bedroom! Nice countertops, eh?
December 2nd, 2008 at 8:38 pm
Calgary SFH avg. prices down 16% from peak.