Real estate board cancels conference
The headline is ‘sales drop forces realtors to cancel 09 conference‘.
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) held a version of the conference in the spring, but in a letter to prospective attendees and exhibitors, board president Dave Watt said a careful review of its sponsorship model led the executive to postpone the next edition until 2010.
“With REBGV members and prospective sponsors/exhi-bitors currently facing economic challenges, we believe forgoing the 2009 edition of our event is a prudent and responsible measure at this time,” Watt said in the e-mail.
When contacted, Watt declined to offer further comment on the cancellation.
Lower Mainland real estate markets hit the down stroke of their cycle this year, which has meant declining sales and falling prices.
Also in the news today, Richmond is the latest area of the lower mainland to see real estate prices drop lower than they were this time last year:
RSS 2.0 comments feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.But it could be worse. You could be trying to sell a house on Vancouver’s west side where detached, attached and apartment properties are being sold respectively for 18.5, 19 and 19.6 per cent less than 2007.
Coun. Derek Dang, a Richmond realtor of 23 years, said it was only a matter of time before the city’s real estate bubble burst.
“It’s not that surprising as we were always going to get caught up like the rest of the world,” Dang said.
“Ultimately, we’re all part of the one big worldwide crisis. We’re good, but we’re not immune.
“It’s an international market we’re dealing in these days and when the global financial market gets into trouble it’s bound to affect us.”
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jesse Says:
December 8th, 2008 at 9:32 am
Sounds like a fiscally prudent thing to do. One must chuckle that this is part of the coming deflationary spiral.
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Mold City Says:
December 8th, 2008 at 9:45 am
So much for the ‘prices won’t drop as much on the west side’ theory.
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patriotz Says:
December 8th, 2008 at 9:46 am
Coun. Derek Dang, a Richmond realtor of 23 years, said it was only a matter of time before the city’s real estate bubble burst.
Yet another rear-view mirror prophet. Dang it, Derek, how long did it take you to catch on?
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gadwin Says:
December 8th, 2008 at 9:49 am
If the cancellation of this conference isn’t a sign that the housing market in Vancouver is melting down, then I don’t know what is.
Sorry specuvestors, this is just the start of the turmoil from Vancouver’s housing market meltdown. Vancouver is quickly becoming the Phoenix of Canada – we are the biggest housing meltdown in Canada.
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patriotz Says:
December 8th, 2008 at 10:07 am
Actually Kelowna – three years inventory if you can believe it – and other southern BC towns will see greater declines, but we are hands down the biggest bust of the major cities. But only four major cities are having busts anyway – Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, and Toronto.
Every city, town and village in southern BC, except Trail, is going to see a meltdown.
Asking $1.85 million for a house on a city lot in Revelstoke
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paul Says:
December 8th, 2008 at 10:17 am
The current scary figures are really just for the October to November period and the market may go into freefall from here on as reality takes hold of perception. Keep in mind that markets tend to swing wildly to over compensate for both fear and glee. Take this into account if you will. The average real estate cycle over the past 60 years runs from 7 to 9 years ( 7-9 up aand 7-9 down), with 18 to 36 month peaks and troughs in each cycle, like a long Pacific wave. Economic conditions during the last recession in 81 through 86 which took Vancouver real estate prices down 50% were far less severe than today. This global recession could extend it’s welcome beyond the average duration. Even if this is an average market cycle ( where price adjustments have averaged 36% downside corrections)it will be 2013 to 2015 ( 6.6 years down which is the average based on historical data) before real estate markets recover. Thats just based on 60 years of history and no wishy Rennie pumping. Get ready and hope that it’s a normal market correction of 6.6 years and not worse. I suspect that due to analytical reasons not expressed here that this market will suffer beyond that of any other preceeding it. Agents are fond of quoting ” Theres no bad time to buy real estate” , but I can see from actual data that there are some very bad times to try and sell. As Obama said over the weekend ” I expect the economy to get worse next year”. He said it , not me.
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yaa Says:
December 8th, 2008 at 10:17 am
derek dang. a politician & a realtor. need i say more?
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yaa Says:
December 8th, 2008 at 10:18 am
whoops, meant realtor®.
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Macronomics Says:
December 8th, 2008 at 10:20 am
They’re probably worried that this guy will show up at their conference.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6G3Qefbt0n4
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RJB Says:
December 8th, 2008 at 10:27 am
I couldn’t find the costs to attend the conference. Looks like they shut down the page with the various price levels for attendees. Anyone know what the prices were?
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montery Says:
December 8th, 2008 at 10:36 am
Even if this is an average market cycle [...] it will be 2013 to 2015 [...] before real estate markets recover.
Aye, that’s in line with my technical analysis of the boom/bust cycle since the ’70’s of the Vancouver Market. I’m projecting 2011-2012 will be the deepest part of the down cycle. However, I’m also predicting that the recovery will be “L” shaped, not “V” shaped. In terms of price drops, I think I’m more bearish than most, in that 50% minimum across the board will be seen from 2007 peak, assuming banks continue to hoard cash and make lending strict, stricter, and strictest yet over the next few years.
I’m expecting condo developments to get hit hardest, and that any softening of price declines will only occur after developers stop new development, and buyers are forced to maintain their existing units rather than “trade-up” to a newer building to escape leaky-condoitis.
I think existing condo-owners will realize, to borrow a word from Battlestar Galactica, how seriously fracked they are in about two years from now as short-term mortgages come due for renewals, and inflationary pressures increase interest rates.
I dunno about the rest of you bloggers, but if I was a highly leveraged owner, I’d be seeing two options: Bankruptcy or a white-knuckle ride through the turbulence and hope I can keep my job. But because I’m just a lowly renter, saving money, I can survive for about a year without a job, and every month, I’m adding one more month to that safety cushion. I don’t think I’ll be positive or optimistic about the economy (and my job) for at least 3 years.
Yes, it sucks to be pessimistic, but on the other hand, it will hopefully afford multiple buying opportunities without putting my whole personal economic life at risk.
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Will Says:
December 8th, 2008 at 10:48 am
I know some people are upset that the conference was canceled. I think the more upsetting thing is not that it was canceled but that it was announced through the media with a headline like that.
I guess I should come clean: I may not know about the real value of the conference because I Never Went. It was an unnecessary expense to begin with. Realtors paid $50 or so to go attend maybe a couple of classes, have a box lunch, and be accosted by vendors of all manner of questionable “solutions”. This was not a national convention where one could network with realtors across the country (and maybe from outside) nor were the vendors really all that surprising since many of them already approach us with direct mail, office presentations, and the like.
I’m sure it was a very expensive show to put on since it was usually held down at the convention centre and the returns really were not there. I’d bet the vendors could do a better job marketing directly at a monday meeting where they have a captive audience and were also wavering on showing up. These are all my suppositions. So I say “So long convention. I really never got a chance to know you.”
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Aleks Says:
December 8th, 2008 at 11:17 am
I’m projecting 2011-2012 will be the deepest part of the down cycle. However, I’m also predicting that the recovery will be “L” shaped, not “V” shaped. In terms of price drops, I think I’m more bearish than most, in that 50% minimum across the board will be seen from 2007 peak, assuming banks continue to hoard cash and make lending strict, stricter, and strictest yet over the next few years.”
I agree with you, but wasn’t April 2008 the peak?
I expect prices to drop back to 4x incomes and maybe even 3x. I think rather than looking for reasons why that would happen, we need reasons why it won’t happen. What’s different here to justify higher real estate prices? If there were higher paying jobs, that would raise prices but not the multiple.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
December 8th, 2008 at 12:17 pm
From “Kelowna Housing Armaggedon” BLOG
http://west-kelowna.ca/post-mo.....this-crash
QUOTE:
” The grand game of music chairs has come to an end. The ponzi scheme of ever-increasing home prices has imploded. Only the first few people through the exits will survive; most of the rest will not. With massive over-supply and virtually no demand, prices have only one direction to go — down. Way down. Deeply down, until homes are affordable to the common man again.”
QUOTE( even MORE to the point re ” specuvestors “, etc.)
“Or in other words, if you have bought within the last three to five years and intend to “sell it for a profit”, you might as well forget about the “profit” part. At least for the next two to three decades. Because after inflation, that is how long it will probably take for you to just break even.”
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YLTNboomerang Says:
December 8th, 2008 at 12:27 pm
Anyone have an update on the Ritz?
Had dinner on the weekend with a friend whose office overlooks the pit and he said that excavation has started again although the signs still aren’t up.
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squidly77 Says:
December 8th, 2008 at 12:48 pm
remember the exteme pressure that realtors and the boards would inflicting on vancoverites a few years ago
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ubsd-tWYmZw
she has since divorced her husband and remarried a renter who is cash heavy
she cited her ex-husband in family court as being financially irresponsible
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
December 8th, 2008 at 1:12 pm
The above REBGV article refers to ” sponsorship model “.
While listening to the radio yesterday, a professional sports consultant was discussing sponsorship as well, in the form of companies that tied their brand name to various professional sports franchises.
He noted that some pro – sports teams have their facilities named after major corporate sponsors that no longer exist ie many of these sponsors are now folded and/or bankrupt. These and similar pro sports sponsors are important to the cash flow for many sports franchises.
He said that the current economic models for Pro Sports are also UNsustainable, and stated that Pro – Athletes and their own incomes will be due for a rude wakening due to such declining revenue streams via reduced sponsorship . In fact, the consultant implied that it was really a bubble of it’s own even in good times.
Re the REBGV,…ther are (2) things that come to mind….(i) the basic sponsorship costs ($$$) and (ii) the “image”
These sponsors may have cash flow problems of their own … but more importantly they may wish to avoid the ” guilt by association” angle.
The sponsors may have come to a conclusion that
a RE meltdown is not only here, it will get worse, no bottom in sight … and any direct or indirect promotion of “deck chairs on the Titanic” no matter how good the quality or low the price is simply bad for business….it simply insults the intelligence of the grassroots , credibility is shot,and the clientele the sponsors try to target gets turned -off in the long term.
Read the Tea Leaves,….Get out of Dodge City while the getting is good.
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Vansanity Says:
December 8th, 2008 at 1:35 pm
“Anyone have an update on the Ritz?”
Sure do! I feel the blasts on my butt everyday. Work is progressing, your friend is quite right about the signage or lack of. From what I understand the project drawings are being revised whilst the hole is dug.
Expect them to either shorten the building or to dedicate more floors for office or hotel vs. condos for sale. Given the current market. I believe the building is expected to reach substantial completion in 2013.
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Kuroame Says:
December 8th, 2008 at 1:36 pm
“It’s not that surprising as we were always going to get caught up like the rest of the world,”
they aren’t pumping RE anymore, all they’re doing is creating little mantras that RE bubble participants can say to themselves on the way down. Mantras that obsolve them of blame or make them feel like they weren’t the victims of a con game.
Now their line is going to be “we were right to invest when we did, our RE fundamentals were strong, BC was different, it was the RE crash in the rest of the world that dragged us down”.
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Alexas Says:
December 8th, 2008 at 2:03 pm
A bit different bidding war these days, not so neighbor friendly thou. See MLS: V731997.
“Dare to compare, this great space is priced to sell, $45,000-$109,000 less than the other 2 bedroom units currently for sale in the same building! This spacious and bright 2 bedroom and den NE corner suite is…”
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Macronomics Says:
December 8th, 2008 at 2:48 pm
Okay, which one of you guys posted this?
You know, a lot of people are really getting killed out there and it’s not nice to mock them.
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....94182.html
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paul Says:
December 8th, 2008 at 3:23 pm
#11 there has never been a V shaped recovery in real estate history. The last L shaped recovery was the one between 1992 and 2003. That’s right folks, the players in that market had to carry their dogs for ELEVEN years before the recovery began. There was a lot of opportunity cost equity lost in that market adjustment.I would speculate a guess that there won’t be as many owners able to hold on for 11 years this time around because of the low equity requirements and the growing number of current upside-down mortgages which will require new second mortgages to requalify to re-up the original first as banks as you know will not finance at zero equity. Ergo, a lot of marginal players will be forced to bail whether they like it or not as opposed to past players who had at least 25% equity to qualify for the original mortgage. Sad fact. This will exacerbate the inventory numbers by competing in a race for the bottom with developers who are also squeezed to sell the last 25% of unprofitable inventory they hold in order to defend demand loans. Yea, it’s looking grim indeed, unless your waiting to bottom feed or sell second. third and fourth mortgages at 16 to 20 p/a. Stop, I’m drooling. Opportunity for some, hell for others. I predict that there will some real deals two years from now when the above inflection point is realized. Then there will be the forced sales that exist in all markets, divorce sales, the court ordered sales, the estate sales etc., that will come into the market and skew the market down further as the forced nature of these sales will set new lower averages forcing developers and speculators to cough up blood trying to keep up with the death spiral down. I think there are many areas like Kits and Yaletown, Okanogan etc., which are more than 50% overpriced and these micro markets ( among others, could come off as much as 70%. This figure I get from technical analysis which bundles the inflation effects of a manipulated M3 and the artificial equity created by government manipulation of intrest rates. Many should hope this all just fun with mathematics.
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Purp Says:
December 8th, 2008 at 3:26 pm
Coun. Derek Dang, a Richmond realtor of 23 years, said it was only a matter of time before the city’s real estate bubble burst.
Wasn’t it Yogi Berra who said, “It’s tough to make predictions…especially about the future”. Much easier to predict the past.
I’d add the corollary that “As a future event becomes more probable, the number of people who knew it all along will grow exponentially”
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read on Says:
December 8th, 2008 at 3:32 pm
Macronomics Says:
December 8th, 2008 at 2:48 pm
Okay, which one of you guys posted this?
You know, a lot of people are really getting killed out there and it’s not nice to mock them.
***************
Oh noes. How sad.
(BTW, wasn’t me.)
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
December 8th, 2008 at 3:40 pm
Paul:
Good stuff …my compliments …keep it coming!!!
I agree, waves of listngs will come and for various reasons.
Like a tsunami, it strikes in waves and quickly without much warning.
I can foresee one wave based on reasons “X” (ie glut of new product) , maybe a lull many go “whew” its over, then another one comes out of the blue for other reasons “Y”( ie rise in interest rates , can’t pay mortgage) then “Z”…etc. etc. .
People will be left punch drunk, given the fiscal and economic etc. body blows from all sorts of different directions.
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Disbelief Says:
December 8th, 2008 at 4:20 pm
Every city, town and village in southern BC, except Trail, is going to see a meltdown.
Asking $1.85 million for a house on a city lot in Revelstoke
I had no idea that revelstoke was such a destination… Must be one of those resort towns like uncle Bob says. I think there must be gooood crack in Revelstoke these days. I think that we can put Regina and Saskatoon on that list of big crash cities also. It is pretty shocking that to buy a house in a sh*t hole town like saskatoon what you need to cough up. It is not just BC and Alberta that are in for a giant step down.
27 X The party’s over… literally « condohype Says:
December 8th, 2008 at 5:06 pm
[...] Hat tip to Vancouver Condo Info. [...]
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I have been banned Says:
December 8th, 2008 at 6:32 pm
“When contacted, Watt declined to offer further comment on the cancellation.”
Could one of my fellow bears post this on Rob’s blog.
On Rob’s last thread, he claimed to know Watt, perhaps Rob can contact Mr. Watt for us inquiring minds.
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other ted Says:
December 8th, 2008 at 6:42 pm
Just got off the phone with my mom. Told her I was right about real estate. Apparently I am making up that there are declines. In fact now is a good time to buy. And I shouldn’t tell people my predictions because I sound nuts.
Yup I honestly can’t believe how brainwashed the average vancouver ite is about real estate.
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exx Says:
December 8th, 2008 at 7:42 pm
I was just cleaning up my favorites and came across this gem back from March 08.
I hope nobody bought this “bargain”, which is easily down $100K already.
Way to cause the market to crash, Helmut.
Well Nick, you’re the only one who didn’t end up a fool in this article. Well done.
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jesse Says:
December 8th, 2008 at 7:55 pm
Great find, exx. I added Helmut’s unfortunate quote to the Wiki of Shame.
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patriotz Says:
December 8th, 2008 at 8:16 pm
“we were right to invest when we did, our RE fundamentals were strong, BC was different, it was the RE crash in the rest of the world that dragged us down”.
Yep, sort of like Mussolini claiming it was the Germans who were responsible for losing WWII.
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Anonymous Says:
December 8th, 2008 at 9:13 pm
RE: 121
bdk Says:
November 30th, 2008 at 2:14 pm
#120
Your friends have nothing to lose by writing a letter to the landlord asking for a 10% decrease and mentioning they’re considering moving for January 1 or even February 1 (two terrible months to find occupants in the best of times)
If the landlord has any common sense they will reduce it and if they don’t then look around for a 1+den.
Update:
My friends heard from their landlord today. The landlord is unwilling to grant the 10% decrease ($174) but is willing to forego the 2% rental increase ($34) they had planned for March/09.
I guess they will be giving their notice Jan. 1st.
Thanks bdk for the advice.
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oracle Says:
December 8th, 2008 at 9:16 pm
a new type agent:
http://www.commondreams.org/headline/2008/12/08-6
that’s funny and real
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richard1 Says:
December 8th, 2008 at 9:19 pm
#9 thanks for that video. i’ve never seen it before. i liked this bit
“There are so many condominiums that have been built in this town that nobody lives in.
Their lights are never on.
I mean they weren’t even bought with the intention of living in.
Some of them are so small it’s like no one would ever want to live in.
Why would you want to buy a condo in this town?”
I almost thought he was talking about vancouver…
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bdk Says:
December 8th, 2008 at 9:21 pm
Sure enough rent has hit $1500 in shangri la….
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....73818.html
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patriotz Says:
December 8th, 2008 at 9:24 pm
“Five or 10 years from now, when the financial crisis has ended and housing prices are up smartly once more, we will look in the rearview mirror and realize that we missed a golden age for first-time home buyers.”
Bwahaha. House prices aren’t even done falling in the US, and are not going to recover until real incomes start rising again. Good luck with that. And that goes for BC too.
This article is from the NYT but the reporter is not one of the people who have been covering the bust such as Gretchen Morgenstern.
The readers aren’t being fooled – look at the comments section.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12.....EBIBtf/0Wg
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scullboy Says:
December 8th, 2008 at 9:37 pm
Other Ted:
People are brainwashed about all sorts of things.
I called my Dad tonight to tell him my first catering engagement was a roaring success. In fact it was so successful I was offered a job on the spot, catering for TV and movies. Seriously! Apparently one of the guests just loved the chanterelles and chevre in phyllo (a recipe I made up the night before I might add), along with the figs in Devon cream and the fresh pesto. I can’t accept the job because I’ll be in school, but she was clear that I was to call her as soon as I was out of school.
Anyway my dad and I were talking about retirement and how the Boomers won’t be able to retire at 65.
“And do you know why that is?” asked my dad.
“Um, because you guys spend way too much money on frivolous things like handmae fishing reels and antique motorcycles and refused to save for the future, so there isn’t enough money to go around” I asked.
Seriously, that’s exactly what I said.
“No,” said my dad, slightly miffed “it’s because Boomers had to pay for your education. You gen Xers are in debt up to your ears and you don’t seem to care. You’re so irresponsible. By the way there’s documented proof that when the baby boomers start to retire, the tax rates on our R.R.S.Ps are so high, it’s going to pay off the national debt.”
I had a major breakthrough this evening. I laughed at the ol’ man to his face.
“Are you fucking kidding? You HAVE to be fucking kidding. Everyone else is going to be paying for your medical bills and you people are going to live another 40 years leeching off the rest of us, and STILL you somehow manage to think you’re going to save the world, and nobody will appreciate all your hard work. God Dad, you’re full of sh*t”.
So…. other Ted, people tell themselves whatever lie they need to to get through life. Don’t worry, all the Boomers are doing.
God I hope they end up on the street eating dog food
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Dan in Calgary Says:
December 8th, 2008 at 10:05 pm
Every city, town and village in southern BC, except Trail, is going to see a meltdown.
Why not Trail? I thought many Trailites had “done pretty well” over the past few years. I have a relative in Castlegar who paid what I thought was an enormous sum for a home last year, and I’ll bet Mom and Dad’s old house along the river, across from the Smelter, would have fetched a pretty penny last year.
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patriotz Says:
December 8th, 2008 at 10:16 pm
Why not Trail?
“2 bdrm home in Columbia Heights with stunning views of the river. It’s the perfect time to buy and it’s cheaper than rent”
http://www.mls.ca/PropertyResu.....10&o=A
Pretty hard to have a meltdown from 99K. Ironically Trail is one of the few towns in the Southern Interior with real jobs, and yet it’s the cheapest.
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patriotz Says:
December 8th, 2008 at 10:29 pm
BTW median household income in Trail is 43K, compared with 47K in Vamcouver proper.
http://www12.statcan.ca/englis.....;start=601
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Dave S. Says:
December 9th, 2008 at 3:12 pm
I can’t wait for all the loser ‘realtors’ who spend their days blogging and haven’t sold a damn thing all year to disappear. I love it how the strongest opinions come from people who haven’t been in the business two years. LOL. Keep on typing but you’d better go back to that part time job.
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other ted Says:
December 9th, 2008 at 4:57 pm
I hope this gets through as the site is closing. Scullboy thanks for the reply and I loved reading your comments over the last year. Hope you migrate over to condo hype or whatever blog takes over condoinfo