Comments on: Why I am a real estate bear. Are you one too?

By: IC4

IC4 — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 06:53:43 +0000

I am bear bear bear and a little bit bull. Let me explain. Was born and grew up in Vancouver. Remember the 81/82 horror clearly. Waited a few years after that and bought my first house in Richmond. Happy homeowner! Proud too. Then came an economic downturn in early 90's and we moved to Australia, bought another house there. Sold the Richmond house at profit. Have stayed long enough in Australia to watch our house go into negative equity for 10 YEARS. Then a miracle---prosperity returned to the Lucky Country. New cars, trips abroad, full renovations being done up and down the streets. My neighbour across the road spent $100K, the one next door $200K! Everyone was reno crazy. But the beautiful thing was this: now I could entertain thoughts of moving back to The Best Place on Earth. If my house was finally worth some good money, then we could return in triumph! So a trip to BC was in order. First stop, Victoria, home of my family. Signed up for real estate listing emailed daily. Tromped around looking at ordinary homes. It was June/July 2007. I didn't know then what I know now. But I had a rude awakening and the reality of the insanity struck my mind like a bash from a 2x4---we will never be able to afford a house in this place. Maybe ever. Ohhh such despair. Return to the other Best Place on Earth, Australia, to lick my wounds. What was I thinking? Vancouver has obviously moved on while I've been away for 17 years. They don't know about my pitiful plans to return to my native land and what's more if I haven't got the money to buy then I must be really dumb. That's a subject for another time. June 2008, return to the Island, talk to the REALTOR who now lets me know there is a "correction" occurring, and now is a good time to buy. Better than last year. Oh? Well guess what? My house in Australia is worth A LOT less now than last year, but never mind that, the exchange rate is murderation. It was in trying to make sense of the local market that I began googling for no-bullshit real estate talkers. Thank god I found some straight shooters. What I've read has put my mind to rest. I have TIME. There is no rush to buy. (my family in BC thinks I've already missed the boat to come back here, get a job, and a nice home. This makes me depressed but my back is against the wall at this end of the world). Since that moment of despair in Victoria 18 months ago (not knowing RE was at its peak) I've been watching the RE drop down and down. That has been enormously satisfying. As some others who have long been around Vancouver can vouch for, this is the part of the cycle we live for. So satisfying. It does hurt to think I might not be able to afford to move back. I'm not so young anymore and don't have the luxury of decades to bounce back financially. So houses must fall by an awful lot, from my vantage, because I really love BC and want to come back, if only for the last few years of my life.

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By: ellery

ellery — Fri, 19 Dec 2008 10:06:07 +0000

Oh, no Mike, you've ruined my day. And CIBC has such a fantastic record, too. http://business.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story... Globe & Mail: "Bank Most Likely to Walk into a Sharp Object"

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By: Mike Stewart

Mike Stewart — Fri, 19 Dec 2008 08:31:50 +0000

Well Well now! All the real estate bears are proved wrong again!! Benjamin Tal says Vancouver and the West will fare better than the rest of the country! No Real Estate Armageddon! Oil is at all time lows, the CONSERVATIVES want to spent $30 billion to get Canada moving again... You bears need to tell me how this situation is going to turn into the end of days you all predict?!

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By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Thu, 18 Dec 2008 20:44:13 +0000

109,10 is a troll who call himself former btk and currently bdk.

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By: realpaul

realpaul — Thu, 18 Dec 2008 20:38:47 +0000

California average now only $32,000 away from a full 50% reduction. If it's true that when the US gets a sniffle Canada gets a cold then this is what we could be looking at soon.

http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/southern-calif…

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By: realpaul

realpaul — Thu, 18 Dec 2008 20:30:24 +0000

from now on I'll call myself 'realpaul'. Thanks paul.

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By: realpaul

realpaul — Thu, 18 Dec 2008 20:29:48 +0000

from now on I'll camm myself 'realpaul'. Thanks paul.

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By: paul

paul — Thu, 18 Dec 2008 20:28:34 +0000

A new Paul has hijacked my name #123 is not my post.

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By: paul

paul — Thu, 18 Dec 2008 20:24:26 +0000

Vanboom2 109-10, your pretense of being a new-English speaker/immigrant from 'Kazahkstan' is getting a bit old, don't you think? Why you want to insult immigrants by pretending an ignoramus POV is rather bizarre. Are you someones alter ego perhaps.

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By: other ted

other ted — Thu, 18 Dec 2008 19:05:30 +0000

i am bad i should have proof read what i said. first paragraph disillusioned with not...

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