But the beautiful thing was this: now I could entertain thoughts of moving back to The Best Place on Earth. If my house was finally worth some good money, then we could return in triumph!

So a trip to BC was in order. First stop, Victoria, home of my family. Signed up for real estate listing emailed daily. Tromped around looking at ordinary homes. It was June/July 2007. I didn’t know then what I know now. But I had a rude awakening and the reality of the insanity struck my mind like a bash from a 2×4—we will never be able to afford a house in this place. Maybe ever. Ohhh such despair. Return to the other Best Place on Earth, Australia, to lick my wounds. What was I thinking? Vancouver has obviously moved on while I’ve been away for 17 years. They don’t know about my pitiful plans to return to my native land and what’s more if I haven’t got the money to buy then I must be really dumb. That’s a subject for another time.

June 2008, return to the Island, talk to the REALTOR who now lets me know there is a “correction” occurring, and now is a good time to buy. Better than last year. Oh? Well guess what? My house in Australia is worth A LOT less now than last year, but never mind that, the exchange rate is murderation.

It was in trying to make sense of the local market that I began googling for no-bullshit real estate talkers. Thank god I found some straight shooters. What I’ve read has put my mind to rest. I have TIME. There is no rush to buy. (my family in BC thinks I’ve already missed the boat to come back here, get a job, and a nice home. This makes me depressed but my back is against the wall at this end of the world).

Since that moment of despair in Victoria 18 months ago (not knowing RE was at its peak) I’ve been watching the RE drop down and down. That has been enormously satisfying. As some others who have long been around Vancouver can vouch for, this is the part of the cycle we live for. So satisfying. It does hurt to think I might not be able to afford to move back. I’m not so young anymore and don’t have the luxury of decades to bounce back financially. So houses must fall by an awful lot, from my vantage, because I really love BC and want to come back, if only for the last few years of my life.

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http://business.theglobeandmai.....iness/home

Globe & Mail: “Bank Most Likely to Walk into a Sharp Object”

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All the real estate bears are proved wrong again!!

Benjamin Tal says Vancouver and the West will fare better than the rest of the country!

No Real Estate Armageddon!

Oil is at all time lows, the CONSERVATIVES want to spent $30 billion to get Canada moving again…

You bears need to tell me how this situation is going to turn into the end of days you all predict?!

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http://www.doctorhousingbubble.....to-285000/

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I started off as a perma bear I guess but not of real estate but of Vancouver. I grew up here went to school for most of my education and worked here for most of my life. I was an engineer and I grew disalussioned that I could afford a middle class lifestyle with what was considered decent work.

For me I had enough in the early part of the decade. I decided I needed a new career or a new location. For the first few years I was all over Canada and away from home and I heard of the rising real estate prices everytime I phoned home. I know real estate was cyclical and expected an increase as prices seemed to bottom out and there was a new found confidence in the city due to a new government and the belief that the olympics would bring prosperity. I did not buy the hype but I new that people would act accordingly and drive up prices. But I expected modest growth.

I don’t know how I would of saw things if I was in Vancouver when prices took off. Maybe I would have been overcome with fear and bought in. But being away it gave me perspective and I knew it was nuts and something was not right. At first I thougth it was just Vancouver. Of course travelling on and off for the middle part of the decade I met people from all over the world who bragged about their countries real estate. Then I realized it was something not just locally driving this.

Regardless I made up my mind I couldn’t live in Vancouver anymore. I said to myself its a big world why do I have to define succes by how everyone else defines it”as owning Vancouver real estate” I figured I could advance my career and have a better standard of living my moving. I believed that everyone else was a coward in my profession and they allowed themselves to get treated like crap by not moving. I did more for my profession by quitting and leaving Vancouver than almost any other engineer I believed.

Anyways I moved to Calgary where oil was taking off. Being a skeptic I believed in high oil prices but didn’t quite believe all the hype I first encountered when I came to Calgary. Then I saw real estate was becoming as insane in Calgary as it was in Vancouver. Before I moved to Calgary 3 years ago I discovered VHB and once I was there this site and the calgary contrarian which is now defunct. (alberta bubble took over)

About 3 years ago everything became clear reading the great posters on this site like (freako, the pope, vhb, and later poster like patriotz etc. )(I know i rarely post and its mostly to argue about things i disagree about but I agree with 99% of what goes on here)

Its funny when I moved to Calgary people would get downright angry with me when I didn’t believe houses should be as high as they were in Calgary and didn’t buy into peak oil as why oil went so high(apparently people forgot about iraq). Anyways I was accused of being negative. I always felt positive in my belief I would buy at a discount to 2006 prices.

I am glad I found this site because not only did it reinforce my belief but it gave me knowledge to understand what is going on and predict how this will all end and what to do. I believe in cash for the time being and I will buy when the prices are right.

I keep on thinking it will be vancouver. But my mind keeps on telling me even if prices go back to 2002 levels why should I. It was 2002 when I decided I had no future in Vancouver because of career issues not just property prices. I felt prices were too high back then with relation to income. But then again I am no longer an engineer. I am now a comodity trader if I could find work in Vancouver which is doubtfull it would pay better. Anyways I have saved more money in the last three years than I had up to that point in my life. I will most likely be able to buy in cash when this all explodes or get away with a small mortgage.

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http://www.gaybeardating.com/?.....aff_cp=IMG

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you are right in second paragraph- majority of immigrant does not buy right away they like to buy within three year of their residency but what all these new flood do to previous residence? They help those previous residence push them forward to buy,some of investor through migration and immigration buy right away based on landcore data those were some of 5% in 2007.there are words in market that most of buyers are from within city within city means immigrant,migrants,and extended family members(extended family means local anytime)within three years of their residency.

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Thanks for the advice. As I told ellery, I will give this serious consideration.

Regards

arit

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Thanks for the explanation about hedging. Now I understand. It is a very different approach from mine. I’ll think about it. I need to balance “hedging’ versus “medal or jail”.

My line of thought is this:
What is the worst case scenario, and can I afford it?

The worst case scenario is that I lose all the money which I am not using right now, and I find myself in 2016 in the same situation that I am today. Today I am happy. No debt.
Of course I also have RESP and RRSP which are not invested in the abovementioned risk.

Regards

arit

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I am just tired of the argument about immigration offsetting the huge supply under construction.

Firstable, go sit at an immigration Canada office and tell me if the mayority of people you see there look like they have the means to buy a $400k apartment off the bat. Most of the immigrants that come in to Vancouver dont have savings nor land high profile jobs that would allow them to buy property under current market conditions. The typical immigrant with a bachelors degree that just arrived to Canada wont get hired for more 50k. Now imaging what those without a degree make.

Besides, go step in to a bank and try to get a mortgage loan with no previous credit history and just holding your Permanent Resident card. They wont even give you a credit card with a $1,000 line.

Now, I tell you all this from personal experience. So unless you get 30,000 of rich immigrants coming to Vancouver each year or the property value declines 50%, the condo towers will remain empty.

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Some potential patients won’t be able to pay for terribly expensive stuff if they lost everything in the great crash of 08/09 and had to start over. Less realistic profitable demand than some projections. Our (excellent) public health system can’t possibly supply everything for everyone forever.

Lots of over-enthusiastic hype and outright scams in the field. (as in all areas)

Certainly some winners there, and a reasonable amount could be allocated, but all? Do more research, think it through, and then ignore me, ellery and the “experts”, make up your own mind and accept the consequences.

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More bad news for speculators Government to build 200,000 homes to stimulate the economy and create jobs

This doesn’t look good for the those who are overextended and need the revenue from the mortgage helper suite, and it sure doesn’t look good for specuvestors who bought in the last few years.

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Those facts are still available you can see lowest rental vacancy rates in vancouver 0.5% where is the supply that some of your friends are talking about?.Even if there is anything exist as we go those unit need to cover up flood of 30,000 people every year so supply has soaked compared to demand and future developer will only step in if their margin of profit is guaranteed that’s why it is very difficult for bears to walk farther away from the next trap either you buy to encourage developer to make more or you pay higher prices for available resale inventory but lots of sellers already pulled off their units off the market.

Paul,

Beautiful weather as long we are in vancouver and i am expecting a flood from Ontario and Quebec could break into vancouver to take a shelter under our solid economy and fill more application to full fill supply for the required labour force.I also feel like some richi rich can also enter here to buy because there is no question remain among canadian or world about vancouver,Vancouver is rock solid and heart touching forever.

Just one tipping point will start a new race my weather forcasting tools spotlight that tipping point close to march,I have also successfuly traced a small magnitude two week ago that was helpful to shake the bucket of confidence based on my weather forecast April stats would be very interesting to watch main while scientists are inspecting all the gears.

VB2

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“hedge a little, man”

sorry, I wrote my post quite quickly and re-reading it, it sounds a bit rude!

anyway, what I meant is “hedge your bets”. Hedge, verb: ” to prevent complete loss of a bet by betting an additional amount or amounts against the original bet.”

In other words, putting all your savings in one stock, any stock, even the best stock ever that Warren Buffett personally fed-exed you a guarantee on is completely bananas. I would never put more than 25% of my savings in any one sector, let alone any one investment. Just a thought.

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therein lies your dilemma …..

if your sister is turning tricks
and the charge is too low you can’t up
for that by doing greater volume even if it is family members…..

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