December ‘08 House prices drop again
Well the official stats are out for December 2008. How did our local Vancouver real estate market fare? You can probably detect the general direction of Vancouver house prices in the following graph:
The drop was slightly less than November ‘08, falling $18,104 to a benchmark price of $648,421. So far the benchmark has dropped $122,900 from the market peak last spring.
UPDATE: Bubble lad just posted a link to this story in today’s Sun: Metro Vancouver to see deepest property price dip.
Metro Vancouver’s home prices rose the highest in Canada’s property boom and will fall the furthest in its correction, real estate firm Royal LePage has forecast. Royal LePage Real Estate Services, in its 2009 market survey forecast released Tuesday, predicted that Metro’s average home price will decline nine per cent in 2009 to $540,100 from a 2008 forecast of $593,500.
That will be almost three times deeper than the national average decline for 2009 of three per cent, which should bring the average home price down to $295,000 nationally.
Royal LePage CEO Phil Soper said that over the long term, home-price appreciation should rise in line with the rate that a city’s incomes rise. “Over the last seven years, Vancouver prices increased at a rate significantly above the underlying appreciation of people’s incomes,” Soper said in an interview.
Don’t listen to the negativity. Local incomes are irrelevant. OUR market is different,it’s fueled by a special blend of upbeat naivety and magic pony-power.
Besides, it’s only money.
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Re-diculous Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 4:30 pm
This graph is beginning to resemble a great looking ski slope….one that I would take slowly in case there’s a cliff ahead of me.
Can’t wait for the spring inventory flood!
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Bubble Lad Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 4:46 pm
Has anybody posted this yet?
http://www.vancouversun.com/Ho.....story.html
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vancouverboom2 Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 4:52 pm
Well it looks like I was wrong, just want to apologize to all of the folks here that I have been annoying with my mindless, idiotic posts.
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MickeyFinn Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 4:57 pm
The Royal Bank of Canada announced today yet another public offering to raise a further $200 million by issuing preferred shares.
What has this got to do with the benchmark price decline and Vancouver real estate?
Plenty!
Ask yourself why Canada’s number one financial institution is raising money yet again? Oh and for those who haven’t paid attention the Royal Bank did this three time already during the blood bath this past fall, including issuing $2.0 billion worth of common shares at a five year low pricing!
I’ll suggest an obvious answer… “because they are expecting a lot more blood letting going forward.” For the banks, blood letting equates to loan write-offs. Guess what… one class of loans that they know they are going to get smacked on are construction loans.
Not only are the developers themselves going to get crunched (like the Pappajohns are with the 37-storey Jameson project) but so too will the purchasers of not-yet-completed projects.
Vancouver’s real estate market is going to tank because the Canadian banks are not going to be there to finance the thousands of condos that are slated to complete in the next twenty four months. How many of the specuvestors do you suppose have an alternative way to complete on the purchase of their units? How many do you think will have to dump their units before completion?
It is painful to point out but it won’t be just greedy investors who will be hurt by this made in Canada credit crisis… no, it will indiscriminately smack the poor suckers who bought into Bob Rennie’s “I’ve got a stainless steel dream” sales tactics and who put their hard earned cash down as a deposit against their dream. Those dreams are about to become nightmares.
When people cannot complete their real estate purchases for lack of financing it causes huge pressure on pricing because those units get sold by receivers (just like David Bowra and the Bowra group are doing with the H&H development in downtown Vancouver) and they sell’em for “whatever the market will bear”. And that’s the crux of it my friends… the dropping benchmark index indicates that the market cannot bear much more downward pressure before it becomes an outright collapse.
This is gonna be ugly. Unless of course you’ve kept your powder dry in which case this is gonna be good.
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Bubble Lad Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 4:58 pm
Again, sorry if someone already posted this:
http://www.vancouversun.com/Ma.....story.html
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gadwin Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 5:20 pm
Buh bye specuvestors, what goes up MUST COME DOWN:
2008 May detached benchmark: $771,250
2008 June detached benchmark: $765,654
2008 July detached benchmark: $753,165
2008 August detached benchmark: $737,985
2008 September detached benchmark: $726,331
2008 October detached benchmark: $695,962
2008 November detached benchmark: $666,525
2008 December detached benchmark: $648,421
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Anonymous Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 5:35 pm
Many people in Vancouver see themselves as savy “investors” when in fact the opposite is true. Many of you may remember the story of the “condo Queeen” that purchased 6 condo units! I wonder if she a had 30-40% down payment and makes bi-weekly mortgage payments? I know several people that have $400,000 mortgages and make $16 per hour! Now these people were happy to pay their mortage when their homes were increasing in value, but now that prices are falling, they are thinking of selling in the spring. We’ll see if the market “picks up” in the spring or ballons with an “investor” fueled inventory.
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Rado@freemarkets.ca Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 5:48 pm
Still a long way to go:
http://tinyurl.com/van-hpi-98-08
Prices are back where they were in summer 2006.
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JD Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 5:56 pm
This is great having a front row seat to one of the biggest real estate bubble crashes in North America. Thanks to the information shared by all of you, I’ve keept my equity safely out of the Vancouver real estate market.
I guess all those skeptics were right, the bubble bloggers were ‘crying wolf’ all along and guess what?
The wolf has arrived!
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Skye Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 6:39 pm
Lock your doors, there’s gonna be a lot of howling at the moon this summer.
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a1 Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 7:11 pm
We are going to see major price cut by local developers by the end of January. Just wait.
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realpaul Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 7:14 pm
#2 Bubblelad , The good people at Royal Le Pew just don’t get it. They use the absolute high from the bubble price era and knock off a dime for good measure, more crazy talk from the realturd industry.
In reality prices in Vancouver were and still are crazy inflated, having no relationship to value. The prices meant nothing and continue to mean nothing as it was all just euphoric unsustainable hype. It was nothing more than a giant pyramid scheme that like all pyramid schemes ran out of suckers.
As I said in an earlier posting , economics will reassert
( they allways do)and prices will revert to the historical adjusted average and probably settle somewhere around in the $340K ( or slightly below due to the effect of recession knock on)area as this is what stable value charts indicate the support and affordiblity for housing is based on facts.
Unfortunatley for the cheerleaders industry economic reversion has proven itself accurate 100% reliable (like a natural law) in each and every economic cycle in the past 300 years. SHHHHHHHHHH !!!!! they don’t want you to know this stuff.
Real housing market prices historically are based on the value an average person can afford to pay. This number is based on the average income. The average income in BC for a dual income family is approx 70K ( a lot of you may think WOW if only) which with a gross debt service ratio of
( Bank Act remember) 30% is around $2100 per month, which as you quick studies see is able to support a mortgage (at 6.5%) + (typical example for the sake of easy math) of around the very low $300,oo mark.
The goof balls from the Canadian Builders assoc have decided to do a dog and pony show on the local stations to try to convince us that everythings going to be OK if we just stop thinking about anything except whats good for them, try to catch the show it chock full of nuts and extra creamy with nonsensical rhetoric from the realtard industry.
Unless Big Boob Bob Rennie can blow one of his hypnotic magic farts that he conjures up in his imagination to make it all better, those multi-unit leveraged specuvestors are going to crawl up his poo hole and grow spikes.
#4 Slam dunk MickyFinn
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pricedoutfornow Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 7:30 pm
Anyone else spending some time checking out the sale prices at BC assessment? I’ve been looking up how much various friends, acquaintances paid for their places this past year…and then comparing to the (oops!) lower assessed value. Sucks to be them. That $3,000/month mortgage can’t be a happy thing…
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 7:33 pm
Re: that Pinnacle deal in Richmond:
It was on CTV and CBC 6 PM news this evening.
Curiousity got the better of me and I attended the meeting this afternoon .
CONCLUSION:
Well, I think there are a lot of delusional people at the upper echelons .
One of the partners wants to keep the deal going,(Concord) but Pinnacle was not there, and they brownosed their way to a 2 month extension(till early March). Council made it clear that the terms and conditions of the agreement form the basis of the 3rd Reading status it is at now . One of those 3rd reading conditions is a contribution of $15 Million to a Skytrain station.
Council was ready to pull the plug on this huge project given this Concord and Pinnacle partnership had already missed several deadlines.
The developers want to build about 2000 housing units. My math say their ain’t no free lunch…just the RAV line station contribution of $15 Million will add about $7000 per unit (on average). Who are these people kidding ? Any savvy buyer has to figure they are subsidizing a skytrain station with an additional $7000 mortgage payment.
Part of the deal is a City owned lot on the site to be bought at a pre-agreed price circa 2007 to be bought. The developers want to offer $1.8 Million LESS than the agreed to price . One Councillor says no…stick to the agreed to price or they start over,( but this Councillor figures the market will change in 2011 and the lot price will double. Huh?).
THUS:
If they want this approved..they cut a cheque for $15 Million on top of a bunch of other fixed costs(ie a City Lot that has lost $1.8 Million in value…DCC’s , etc. My guess is at least $25 Million before they break ground
I felt like holding up a sign saying:
“Log onto Vancouver Condo Info you F*cking morons “.
C-L-E-A-R-L-Y… they are buying time…hoping against hope…They have till early March to get their act together or that’s it, it’s over. However, by March, the Spring RE season will likely begin , the listings will shoot up, the Pinnacle deal will implode.
I think partner Pinnacle is sitting back and letting Concord talk, but Pinnacle wasn’t there. I think Concord is overexposed all over the Vancouver area…. something has got to give.
They also said the ASPAC development ( beside the Olympic Oval ) will start soon, as well as other Richmond projects that have been approved.
Oh Really ?
I left the meeting thinking these people are seriously seriously deluded.
====================================================
RealPaul:
At the meeting wer Thomas and Magdalene Leung (Westin Construction )and realtor Grace Kwok?
Any scoop on them?
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realpaul Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 7:39 pm
#14 The realturds you saw today are just hangers on and party twits.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 7:43 pm
Helmut Pastrick’s last business meeting with Cameron Muir and the REBGV
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IIlKiRPSNGA
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vancouverboom2 Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 7:59 pm
#3
The pope is dead otherwise he should have unplugged your wires long time ago.
“what goes up must come down”-Gadwin.
Gadwin,
When would you go back to KG? If you can’t answer this question then you can better understand that you are such an idiot.
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Vansanity Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 8:03 pm
My Civic’s got some of that “magic pony-power”! Should’ve seen me bombin around on those side streets recently.
Our politicians can’t clean the snow off the streets, but they’ll be able to stave off a global recession and re-inflate the global credit bubble, no problemo. Good luck with that everyone!
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JD Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 8:18 pm
Hey pricedoutfornow, whats the link to the assessment site? Are they the same as 2007, or are they actually listing 08, but billing taxes based on 07?
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blueskies Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 8:33 pm
BC assessment site:
http://www.bcassessment.bc.ca/
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vancouverboom2 Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 8:44 pm
JD,
On the 2009 assessment roll, be valued at the actual
value calculated using either a July 1, 2007 or July 1,
2008 valuation date, whichever is lower. Properties
valued using regulated rates will be valued at the
rates developed for the 2008 assessment roll.
http://www.bcassessment.bc.ca/.....0Facts.pdf
Canadian housing market ‘totally different’ from U.S.
http://www.canada.com/topics/n.....id=1145088
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realpaul Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 8:45 pm
And the local cheerleaders will have you believe that little Vancouver will be sheltered from the storm
http://www.globeinvestor.com/s.....7/GIStory/
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blueskies Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 9:08 pm
like big houses?
http://tinyurl.com/7ovaqe
“The idea that you’re going to make a lot of money tearing down an old house to build a new one, that’s gone,” says Morris Davis, a real estate economist at the University of Wisconsin in Madison who has advised the Federal Reserve on the teardown trend.
…for the times they are a changin’
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BBY Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 10:01 pm
A little off topic, but for those of you using the LinkedIn professional network, have you noticed an increase in distant acquaintances suddenly linking to you over the last couple of weeks? A few colleagues of mine have noticed the same thing. Seems to be a time that people who have lost their jobs, or fear that they will, are starting up the old networking skills. There’s been a lot of big layoffs in the high tech sector in this town recently. There was a rumor posted in Slashdot that Microsoft would announce a 15% workforce reduction in mid-January. And I know that from a buddy in the trades that building contracts have been canceled for one of the Richmond Microsoft office.
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Supraboy Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 10:03 pm
“The Royal Bank of Canada announced today yet another public offering to raise a further $200 million by issuing preferred shares. What has this got to do with the benchmark price decline and Vancouver real estate?
Plenty!”
I wouldn’t read too much into that. My bank manager sounds overconfident about Royal Bank. He said $200 million for banks is nothing. We’ll see what happens, it’s too early to say because I kinda agree with him, $200mill is very little in the banking world.
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Vansanity Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 10:03 pm
Mickey Finn – Good post. While I’m at it realpaul and Nolympics, as always nice work.
I’ll add to Mickey’s piece by saying that a Developer I know talked recently and said they have 4 projects they’re completing and a few on hold. He said the banks want 50% presales now… which to me seemed low, but whatever. I asked, what it was before. He laughed and said “nothing, they just gave us money”. You can see how right you are about this “made in Canada” problem they created and how bang on you are in their attempt to increase capital recently.
This guy didn’t seem too worried, said that he believes we’re different out here, in Vancouver, in BC, etc. He was quite confident that the holds would be lifted soon after presales were reached and away they’d keep going. Good luck with that, I thought to myself.
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Vansanity Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 10:09 pm
Supra – $200M is relatively small, but look at the bigger picture.
“Canadian banks have raised about C$6.5 billion since November by selling common and preferred stock to shore up regulatory capital. Toronto-Dominion Bank, the second-biggest bank, said yesterday it will raise as much as C$300 million in a preferred offering, while National Bank of Canada, the No. 6 bank, filed to sell as much as C$200 million.”
$6.5B in two months, between the big 5, now that’s a spicy meatball!
Link: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/.....fer=canada
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browntown Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 10:36 pm
oh yeaaah nutslaps! no-olympics is smart guy but comment
“hold up sign saying log onto vancouvercondo” is gutbuster of 2009! should have tryed selling get rich renting seminar tapes! try telling crowd printing press is broken! haha real estates going down for decades to cum! oh yeah ha ha
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 10:59 pm
MickeyFinn:
Re The Jameson (now cancelled);which you have mentioned recently a couple of times.
If you don’t mind my asking, what is happening with the developers?
Reading between the lines, are you implying the Pappajohns are in big trouble financially ?
I had just presumed they won’t build ,simply suspend or cancel the project, and thus will simply eat the costs to date.
Is there something worse than that going on ?
Thanks!
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observer Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 11:09 pm
I remember when it was said the soviet communist system was doomed because centralized planning often resulted in employing workers to build products simply for the purpose of keeping workers employed, regardless of the actual value or quality of the products they were producing.
Despite all the sympathy for bailouts, one can’t help to notice a bit of irony here. Loose credit and low interest rate policies have encouraged economic activities, which wouldn’t otherwise be viable, to be sustained through a bubble of money, albeit through a decentralized process.
The irony is even more poignant given that a good chunk of the loose credit was provided by a (technically) communist country and this in turn was used to buy products produced from this country (well, okay, to be fair, the products weren’t designed there).
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Lily pad Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 11:19 pm
#8 rado@freemarkets: Thanks for posting the graph.
The false economy is going down really fast. I am just wondering how it would feel if I were a hoemoaner who looked at the assessment from this year and saw that my house was “worth” 2M.
But I look around me and I see houses similar to mine listed on the market for 1.2M and they are not selling.
Fast forward to December 2010 and I am sitting in my home that the assessors say is worth, say 1M but neighbours around me cannot seem to sell theirs for $800k. I still owe on my $250k heloc and once I sell (if it ever happens) I will have to pay capital gains on the basement suite I’ve been renting out for 20 years.
Is this train wreck going slow enough for these guys who thought they were so rich to process everything or is it happening so fast that it will end up putting them all in the funny farm?
Just wondering…
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MickeyFinn Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 11:37 pm
NO-LYMPICS #29… in hindsight I suppose my posts make it sound like I know something more about the Pappajohn’s troubled project than the rest of us “casual observers” of the Vancouver real estate scene but that’s simply not true.
At one time I was heavily involved in the development game here in Vancouver but not anymore. That said, and as I have pointed-out before, developers have a dangerous tendency to overestimate their business acumen and to underestimate risk. Paul Reichmann’s Olympia and York which crashed when the family bet it all on the massive Canary Wharf development comes to mind… or Robert Campeau’s flame-out on Federated Department Stores (Bloomingdales)… etc.
For the record, I actually feel bad for the schmucks who are going to get whacked by virtue of their poor business decisions… but then again, Vancouver’s development community has lived “high on the hog” for a lot of years and it will do them good to be taken down a few notches… and hey, “what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger.”
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Vansanity Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 11:48 pm
Some of you might remember some posts in the past that I receive through email from the good people at the Harris Real Estate Group. I put these up for laughs more than anything, here’s the latest and it’s a doozey, enjoy:
“Here are some reasons why people just like you are buying RIGHT NOW:
-Because of the lowest interest rates in 5 years. And only getting lower…
-Highest rental prices ever.
-Because of a 0.2% vacancy rate in Downtown Vancouver. Finding good tenants has never been easier. And it’s only going to get tougher to find a rental in this city as more people rent than buy.
-Highly Motivated sellers. If they’re selling in this market, you can assume they need to sell. Asking price is irrelevant. Write offers at ridiculously low prices and something will stick.
-Because of falling prices. Price it in to your offer. Get the discount NOW, and watch the market catch up. If it doesn’t, put that built in equity into your pocket.
-Because it’s still very easy to get a loan. If these rules change, you’ll be saving for your down-payment until you’re blue in the face. Just ask an American.
-Because of cash flow positive properties. If you’re making money every month from a property, how long can you wait until the market turns around? (um. forever.)
-Because your broke uncle who lives in the basement thinks it’s better to wait. Being a contrarion is sometimes the best strategy.
-Because Real Estate is better than stocks. Hands down. Yes, you heard me stockbrokers. Bring it on….”
lol! I knew you’d laugh, well some of you are! I should right back my own list of why people aren’t buying right now… would be too time consuming though.
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buff_butler Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 12:57 am
4 McFinn,
Great post. I’m actually suprised at the recent runnup the banks are getting for their common shares considering the mounting risk.
27 Vansanity,
Very true and that 6.5b all pays some form of dividend so there esentially eroding future earnings. They could have issued at 1/2 the cost if only they didn’t drink the coolaid.
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betamax Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 12:58 am
So the benchmark is down 16% off peak already, and even according to biased Royal LePage it has at least another 9% to go, that takes it down to 590k or 24% off peak minimum.
And we all know it won’t be the minimum.
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Brittanny Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 1:40 am
Elitist Royal Bank. Tsk,tsk. Spanky time. Turns out, the general public is alot more informed than the used to be and are not as dumb as they thought they were.
Wow, what a time to short RBC, like taking candy from a baby.
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Whybuywhenucanrent? Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 2:38 am
Some new charts from myself and chris over on the Chipman blog
Greater Vancovuer SFH benchmark (by chris)
http://spreadsheets.google.com.....tput=image
Greater Vancovuer SFH benchmark % YOY (by chris)
http://spreadsheets.google.com.....tput=image
Vancouver REBGV benchmark plunges compared with 12 US cities’s Case-Schiller values (by whybuywhenucanrent? using SeattleBubbleBlog chart)
http://www.flickr.com/photos/2.....175762229/
15 cities/areas of Greater Vancouver compared, declines from top. REBGV benchmark data (3 month running average), SFH home prices plunging. (Port Moody leads the way, PoCo holds value best)
http://www.flickr.com/photos/2.....175881341/
For the flickr photos, click the magnifying glass icon above the center of the photo (middle of the row of grey icons) for full-size view.
Enjoy,
Whybuywhenucanrent!
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Whybuywhenucanrent? Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 2:44 am
and when referencing my flickr charts, please use the following key words in the text
* REBGV
* plunge
* Whybuywhenucanrent?
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freako Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 6:21 am
Royal LePage CEO Phil Soper said that over the long term, home-price appreciation should rise in line with the rate that a city’s incomes rise. “Over the last seven years, Vancouver prices increased at a rate significantly above the underlying appreciation of people’s incomes,” Soper said in an interview.</b?
He know speaks as this is situation normal and that he expected it all along. If that was the case, he obviously would have KNOWN that Vancouver was in a bubble. Why not much such raise such flags BEFORE the sh*t hits the fan?
Last year, he does mentioned affordability, but also muses out loud about million dollar average price:
Vancouver’s rise is slowing in percentage terms, but “at this rate it will be in the next 24 months the first region in Canada to have a housing class with an average price over $1 million,” Soper commented.
“Wages and salaries there aren’t that much superior to other parts of the country, so affordability is an issue,” even as a robust economy and ongoing immigration keep demand ahead of supply.
Demand ahead of supply? As usual, these clowns can’t see the distinction between PHYSICAL and SPECULATIVE demand. As I have always noted, speculative demand can disappear in a parso second.
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freako Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 6:23 am
SOrry, I messed up the bold in the above. The second and third paragraphs are my commentary, not Sopels.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 6:56 am
Mickey Finn:
Thanks and well said.
What has happened is both amusing and yet disconcerting.
When the big boys fall, we see they are “only human”.
However, when they drink the kool -aid, there are ripple effects from this bad judgement to the rest of us.
When I attended that meeting yesterday on the Pinnacle deal, I got the feeling that the elected officials and the developers really don’t get it. I left with the feeling they are either in denial or really feel the current economic conditions are temporary, a minor blip.
I suppose its their role , or nature to be upbeat and positive, but I think this is a whole new ball game.
It begets the question as to whether Local Gov’ts should seriously consider whether they should act as referee and limit any new development. In this economic climate, in a down ,if not collapsing market, and new product simply dilutes the value of existing product via oversupply versus declining demand.
Usually, normal market forces act as a check and balance to regulate this, but I think there are some groups that feel the current UNprecedented global economic situation is a short term anomaly and are still considering adding more product.
Look at Vancouver.
If Concord wanted to build more product on its remaining Expo lands (which would be directly across from Olympic Village), sure Vancouver might like the DCC’s and economic activity, but the City has ALSO incurred a major liability onto its citizens re the Olympic Village and unsold condos.
Would , should or could Vancouver say NO to Concord, the priority being that Vancouver has to maximize its return/ or this now converts to minimizing its losses, and any more competing product would exacerbate the fiscal disaster the Olympic Village has all the signs of becoming. However, would that be deemed as conflict of interest, now that Vancouver has ventured into wearing a Private developers hat?
This latest boom sort of reminds me of those game shows where a person is in a booth filled with money and they turn on the blower fans from below . The aim is to grab as much $$$ floating around as one can in a limited time period. Common sense was simply left outside the door in a mad grab for the cash. I’m not sure common sense has kicked in yet amongst many parties, especially those at the top.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 7:30 am
Seems to be a common question.
” Why IZ Peepulz so stoopidz” ?
I loved those polls where people are asked simple questions.
A group was asked if Winston Churchill was a real person or fictional and if Sherlock Holmes was a real person or fictional.
About 25 % thought Churchill was a fictional character, and even more thought Sherlock Holmes was a real person.
I had a chat with a Richmond Mayoralty candidate, and he said he talked to a number of seniors, and campaigning for their vote . Many of them said sorry, they would be voting for the incumbent Mayor , ” because we need him to finish the Oval “.
I am sitting there listening in bewilderment.
The Oval was at or near completion at the time of the Civic elections. If a new mayor had been elected, what do they think would happen ? Tear it down, or work would stop? They don’t realize these elected D-Bags abuse their elected powers and the democratic process like kids in a candy store.
These people should be thinking that the incumbent Mayor and many incumbent Councillors foisted this Oval onto them…and it will likley lead to cuts in services to seniors and others throughout the City so as to maintain this looming white elephant.
Someone must have spiked their geritol with kool aid …or vice -versa?
The same ignorance is prevalent amongst many in society, they beleive what they want to beleive, hear what they want to hear, shoot or ignore the messengers
PT Barnum had a saying something about never overestimate the intelligence of the general public. To that I’ll add never underestimate their naiveness , gullibility and detachment from reality. I guess it’s some sort of leftover survival mechanism from the cave man days.
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I'mnotputtingmunametothis! Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 7:38 am
From Vancouverbum2be post 21 link:
You don’t really have to read beyond the first sentence.
“The Canadian housing market is cooling but is not facing a U.S. style meltdown, builders here say.
Oh, the BUILDERS say! Good non-biased information source there. Nothing from another view in there. Pure fluff.
Vancouverboom2 (I used your handle properly to indicate the sincerity of my question), do you truly believe this? I mean, are you trolling, or are you actually sincere in your belief that it really is different here and this time? Do you actually take the time to follow some of the links and arguments here, and remain convinced that the bubble isn’t, and the popping sounds aren’t?
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Van-zee Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 8:44 am
“The reality is that people tend to buy when prices are going up, not when they’re going down.”
Dave Watt in the Province
http://tinyurl.com/79ev8b
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Anonymous Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 9:29 am
The Vancouver newspaper article states. House prices 357,770 in December 2001 to $730,399 in December 2007. Well, a reasonable house price would be 750,000 in 2011 factoring in a 10% return on your investment over a 10 year period. I believe a 10% return on investment for Vancouver Real Estate is reasonable.
Is the guy in the car real estate ad blogs running the Vancouver Real Estate Board?
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 9:39 am
In a previous posting, someone had a link to a story about McMansions in the US.
I have to admit that I didn’t think they were so prevalent elsewhere outside BC.
However, maybe there is a formula attached to them that transcends borders.
In B.C. a lot of the McMansions were fed by offshore dollars for the past 20 + years.
In the U.S they were fed by the subprime loans given to literally anything with a pulse.
McMansion ” lite ” was condos.
Both the U.S. and Canada dipped into this subprime or 0/40 loans .
Regardless, all the driving variables in both countries are now toast.
The U.S. was basically a fiat money fantasy catering to a huge population base( and many won’t admit much of it was a social engineering experiment that turned into a Frankensteinian monster ).
In BC…whatever happens offshore hits us.
There seems to be little if any good news coming out of Asia. 67,000 factories closed in China that they admit to in the first half of 2008. Some allege the Oil speculators were to blame for a lot of this. Some people still don’t get the various correlation/s.
I often muse about the early 1980’s and the way the economy tanked, and the Solidarity protests etc. The economy flatlined till Expo 86, then it took off for obvious reasons, but nothing that had much of a domestic base or basis to it. We became, in essence, addicted to an uncertain, unpredictable and fickle amount of offshore investment.
In hindsight one wonders how things would have unfolded if we hadn’t had the Hong Kong turnover in 1997.
I attended the Titanic exhibit in Victoria in 2007. One interesting fact presented was that the Titanic sailed on a clear night on smooth seas. That seemingly minor fact contributed to its downfall.
Why?
….Because no waves existed that would have crashed against the looming iceberg and made a noise that the crew could have detected and been made aware of a large object ahead. However, unlike the Titanic, there were lots of warning signs in the global economy, and especially to those Captains in charge, that should have been heeded.
Like the Titanic, the rest is now history.
However, many think this latest Titanic can still be resurrected/refloated.
Get over it, it was a house of cards since DAY ONE.
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vancouverboom2 Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 9:42 am
I buy three my huzba buy three!!!
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blueskies Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 9:44 am
nolympics:
Reading between the lines, are you implying the Pappajohns are in big trouble financially ?
my understanding of the situation is the
family personally guaranteed a $32 million loan to start the project and
almost half the presales were “friends and family” double ouch……
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vancouverboom2 Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 9:45 am
I believe a 10% return on investment for Vancouver Real Estate is reasonable.
And I believe you’re out to lunch.
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realpaul Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 9:49 am
more layoffs can’t be good for Vanc suppliers
http://www.networkworld.com/ne.....mp;hpg1=mp
http://www.gamespot.com/news/6202771.html
Before we rolled into 2009 I had mentioned several times that early in the New Year we would likely see that start of a phenomena that would label the “National Layoff Festival. It would come as companies which might otherwise have started their layoffs, to meet the recent downturn (partial collapse?) of the economy, played ‘catch-up’. Not the companies that had already over-extended, but companies that were well-run and profitable. It would just be time to ‘right-size’ to use a somewhat antiquated term, in order to stay in business as well-run companies.
So, it came as n o surprise last night when Alcoa sent out a press release right after the close announcing an 18% production cut and a 13% people cut:
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 9:50 am
46 vancouverboom2 Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 9:42 am
I buy three my huzba buy three!!!
( and they would sell 3 to my Shih -Tzu if it wouldn’t sh*t and piss on the pre-sale carpet . Next time I buyee cork and clothespin and make dog look like Mini – Me! )
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vancouverboom2 Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 9:55 am
I’mnotputtingmunametothis!,
I am following these blogs carefully i also read all the links posted by anyone but as you know these are bears blogs and some other like Paul b these administrators have nothing to offer other than misleading information,you guys are entitled to post your self fisting links and desirable commentary but is there any of you coming forward to tell bears to buy,Where is Vhb,The Pope and what the heck is Freako doing here.do you know that Mohican bought a unit for himself last year.do you know that being in Vancouver you guys have already missed the boat,Do you know that(sorry can not use question marks.)
Answer to your question ,I am proud to say yes we are fundamentally different than Usa or World and the little problem in Ontario is also a part of Usa if you know where these big three belongs to or else you can see 5 out of 10 cities are still up and most of them would be countinue to do so,Vancouver downturn was a part of false alarm a misleading fear generated by opposition parties,real estate bears,and stock market investors.Lots of people start realizing now that help over turned the confidence (consumer confidence) it stand at two third over last year.
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JD Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 10:06 am
nothing to offer other than misleading information
See the problem with that argument is that they are offering up actual statistics, analysis and links, all of which can be corrected by anyone else if it actually is ‘misleading’ or untrue. Your argument is simply that you believe Vancouver is different. That’s not information, that’s blind faith.
Going deeply into debt based on blind faith and hype is not the path to riches you had hoped it would be.
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JD Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 10:10 am
Nice link Van-zee, I like the headline:
“Buyers not lining up for house bargains”
Maybe that’s because there are no ‘bargains’ to line up for yet? Sure we’re down almost 15% from the market peak, but we’re still detached from reasonable prices that most people living in Vancouver can afford, even without the current climate of job loss and uncertainty.
Look at the US, where prices in some markets are down 50% and people still aren’t lining up for ‘bargains’.
The secret is out. Buying overpriced real estate is a suckers bet. Selling it may make you rich, but overpaying for it certainly won’t.
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Spectrum Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 10:21 am
2008 May detached benchmark: $771,250
2008 June detached benchmark: $765,654
2008 July detached benchmark: $753,165
2008 August detached benchmark: $737,985
2008 September detached benchmark: $726,331
2008 October detached benchmark: $695,962
2008 November detached benchmark: $666,525
2008 December detached benchmark: $648,421
-1.8% September
-4.4% October
-4.4% November
-2.7% December
Anybody else surprised that the decrease was only 2.7%? I was kinda getting used to over 4% declines. Maybe because so little moved on the market we only saw a 2.7% decline? I was kinda hoping/expecting it to decline more and for the decline to continue to get steeper.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 10:22 am
Re Alcoa:
..or any Aluminum producer.
Given they are reliant on electric power for the aluminum refining process, if they start to cut production, their will be a lot of excess electrical power available, and specifically the Rio Tinto Alcan Kitimat smelter in North-East BC.
This would provide them with some cash flow, a choice they do have as opposed to other industries. This selling of the Kitimat power versus Aluminum production jobs has been a big issue over the years.
About a week ago, the $3.2 Billion Kitimat plant expansion has been put on hold
http://www.opinion250.com/blog.....on+on+hold
Now Premier Campbell also has all these private power projects coming on line. I wonder how they will play out in the current economic situation? Did Campbell guarantee these parties a fixed price and also a guaranteed access to the market ? Or are they on their own,,subject to the market forces of supply and demand. There is one $400 million private sector power project currently being built up the BC coast , as well as many others. A tanking economy will correlate to less demand for electricity.
If the global economy tanks…this Kitimat expansion may be cancelled. Rio Tinto Alcan may simply sell the power they generate to BC Hydro’s grid that they would have otherwise used to produce Aluminum. In theory this would be cheaper on the supply versus demand basis, but I recall that power provided by outside sources will be bought at a higher rate.
Campbell and crew were all excited about these private power generating ventures…claiming we need the power but handcuffing BC Hydro from becoming directly involved .
However, perhaps these private sector producers will hit a wall financially. Will we have 1/2 finished projects left impacting the environment ?
All these things are coming into play in the near future.
How will it unfold…a Cost versus a Benefit?
So, again this global economic integration has more and more backwash, both foreseen and unforeseen, hitting and impacting BC .
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JD Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 10:35 am
BBY: re linked-in
Interesting, I noticed the same thing. Not only links, but people actually writing and asking if I could recommend people to link to, both from people currently looking for work and those worried about layoffs in the next couple of months.
Has Microsoft said anything to dispel that rumor about laying off 15% of their work force?
On a related note, anyone else seeing more empty storefronts around Vancouver? I’ve been surprised lately by the number of them. West 4th, South Granville, Main Street and West Broadway all have a lot more empty shops than they did last year.
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Anonymous Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 10:40 am
JD,
Keep on reading stats and link one day you will find the one you have missed!!!!!
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Anonymous Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 10:48 am
“they are offering up actual statistics, analysis and links,”
Same graph 4th time within 10 days aha you guys are helpless.
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Lily pad Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 10:51 am
no-lymics: Re #45, not only are McMansions a BC, Canadian, and US phenomenon, but building is STILL happening overseas:
http://www.heraldnet.com/artic.....89944/1005
“Feola’s firm, which does 90 percent of its projects outside the U.S. and is best known for designing a shopping mall in Dubai with an indoor ski slope, was responsible for a development outside of Beijing called Napa Valley that has little resemblance to the winemaking region.
Grassy front lawns and driveways lead to pastel-colored homes that mimic French, Italian or Spanish architectural styles. Customized kitchens, screening rooms and basement wine cellars are very different from Chairman Mao’s vision of communal living.
“It’s hard to tell you’re not in Southern California,” Feola said.
Another Beijing suburb, aptly named Orange County, sold out within days of opening in 2002. Chinese developers hired Newport Beach firm Bassenian Lagoni to make a replica of homes they saw south of Los Angeles. With the eerie resemblance to the American suburb, critics derided the homes as “McMansions.”
“It’s too bad that we as Americans are turning away from suburban sprawl as Asia adopts it,” said Robert Fishman, a professor of architecture and urban planning at the University of Michigan.
Architect Aram Bassenian, whose Mediterranean-style homes have come to define California’s ritzy suburbs, contends that architects shouldn’t shoulder all the blame. California borrows ideas from elsewhere, and for centuries cities have been designed or influenced by outsiders.
Many advances in green home design that were developed in the U.S. are being introduced overseas, including better insulation or ventilation to rely less on fossil fuels for heating and air conditioning.
To make the homes fit with the local culture, outdoor kitchens are added in Asia for frying food, and trellises are installed to protect Mediterranean homes from intense sunlight.
“We don’t create the demand, we respond to people’s needs for shelter, for housing,” Bassenian said.
Despite criticism, suburban communities are sprouting in Latin America, North Africa, South Asia and Eastern Europe. To promote developments that won’t deplete natural resources, land use experts at the Urban Land Institute has been taking foreign groups on “study tours” of U.S. communities and recently opened an education center in the United Arab Emirates.”
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Lily pad Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 10:59 am
Houston McMansions
http://www.city-data.com/forum.....elfair.jpg
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jesse Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 11:03 am
“I believe a 10% return on investment for Vancouver Real Estate is reasonable.
Sure it is but you need to include rental income as well as carrying costs (maintenance, tax, etc.). When you do this the expected appreciation is way way less than this. Also you cannot have perpetual 10% PA capital appreciation when inflation is close to zero. The best you can do with a detached property is maybe 1% above inflation. For a condo you’re lucky if it keeps up with inflation because as it ages the rent you can chrage will not keep pace with inflation and maintenance costs increase.
The reasons why prices have been appreciating since the mid-’80s are misunderstood. Some gains have been due to limited land supply and population growth but the majority of the gains have come from a huge speculative bubble and perpetually declining inflation expectations. We are at the end of the line on both fronts now. If you’re looking for a repeat performance for the next 20 years, you’re definitely out to lunch.
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Lily pad Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 11:11 am
More photos of the housing bubble in the US courtesy The Housing Bubble Blog run by Ben Jones
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/js_slideshow/
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Lily pad Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 11:21 am
Another slideshow of California-style McMansion developments in Beijing:
http://www.charlotteobserver.c.....36717.html
I could go on and on but I’ll stop now.
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realpaul Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 11:50 am
#63 Real estate ads from Las Vegas and Florida were screamingly positive one year ago however RECENT market activity is somewhat differant.
In Beijing TODAY
“During the late 1990’s, property markets in big cities of China were overheated. Price of prime land in Beijing has fallen from the heights attained in the boom development phase of the early 1990s. The vacancy rate for buildings was 38% in Shanghai and 30% in Beijing .”
“Residential real estate experts estimated that it might take two to three years for the vacant spaces to be absorbed if the recent trends continue.”
In other words the real property market in Beijing has been in the toilet for a while now and no recovery is predicted due to the crash of the export economy.
http://online.wsj.com/article/.....eal_estate
China Digital Times » protests On Monday, hundreds of angry investors in a get-rich-quick scheme fought with …. Ten people
” Although the site has been now blocked by the Communist Party it is a story of how thousands of people are up in arms in Beijing after being informed by local developers that the value of thier pre-sale condos had fallen dramatically. Sound familiar?
DUBAI
” I can not sell these apartments” says Dubai investor. Apparently the Dubai market is also in the toilet. It’s important to stay current with information
http://www.iranunited.com/foru.....php?t=8003
http://www.alaskadispatch.com/.....lters.html
Vancouver
Vancouver is a service industry, it seems that the markets we service are going broke, what does that mean for our real estate boom.
USA
Fed says “Worst is yet to come”
http://www.globeinvestor.com/s.....7/GIStory/
“I could go on and on but I’ll stop now.”
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realpaul Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 12:00 pm
Analyst says ” 2009 wrong time to buy based on disappearing jobs numbers.”
http://www.marketwatch.com/new.....7FDDFF4%7D
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 12:01 pm
I had a neighbour who went to Mainland China a few years ago for a short gig, involved in facets of residential contruction .
He showed me photos of the houses being built , and they were selling for about $ 500,000.
They weren’t quite McMansions, but about 50 – 60 % of the size.
On a Global scale, one wonders why Local Gov’ts went for this McMansion size of house. Probably very short term thinking , a lust for higher property tax revenue. Historically , such large homes degenerate to other uses.
Where are all the so – called “enviromentalists” ?
I grew up with parties whose families numbered 6-10 people and they survived in 1-2 storey houses approx. 1200-2400 sq.ft. McMansions use up 2-3 times the resources of the homes they replaced( materials ,utility costs, etc. etc.)
These McMansion/ Monster houses will end up road kill.
There used to be a rule -of -thumb that one builds a house of a cost approx. equal to the value of the lot.
In a collapsing RE market, my view is a large McMansion becomes a liability, or conversely, its “Improvement”value will depreciate. My guess is that in the next 10 years, the McMansions will be increasingly turned into rooming houses, and maybe even further suck the life(ie fiscal Viability) out of the condo market.
In the last Depression , the Monster homes were often concentrated in the Shaugnessy area. Most others lived in small salt boxes. It became know as Poverty Heights during the Depression ,many of the rich went broke… and many of these Shaugnessy Monster homes were turned into rooming houses, etc. Other large homes were scattered throughout the City and were also converted . Some builders I know have renovated these Shaugnessy mansions and kept them as rooming houses, hence the cash flow must still be attractive.
However over the last 20 year, McMansions are a literal epidemic throughout the Greater Vancouver area.
One could comfortably rent out rooms to 6 or more people per McMansion.
Do the Math and predict the future.
No area will be immune.
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Whybuywhenucanrent? Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 12:07 pm
Some new charts from myself and chris over on the Chipman blog
I posted this earlier, but its in moderation limbo, so here it is again. Let’s see if it works…
Greater Vancovuer SFH benchmark % YOY (by chris)
Vancouver REBGV benchmark plunges compared with 12 US cities’s Case-Schiller values (by whybuywhenucanrent? using SeattleBubbleBlog chart)
15 cities/areas of Greater Vancouver compared, declines from top. REBGV benchmark data (3 month running average), SFH home prices plunging. (Port Moody leads the way, PoCo holds value best)
For the flickr photos, click the magnifying glass icon above the center of the photo (middle of the row of grey icons) for full-size view.
When referencing my flickr charts, please use the following key words in the text
* REBGV
* plunge
* Whybuywhenucanrent?
Enjoy,
Whybuywhenucanrent!
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Anonymous Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 12:12 pm
#43 vanzee,
Thanks for the link and JD good rant in comment section.
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realpaul Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 12:14 pm
#67 Why not not post them here?
Jobs Apocalypse news
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/.....refer=home
This can’t be good , even for an economic island like BC
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 12:20 pm
What IS the bottom?
My definition is when it plateaus for a while and then begins to move in the opposite direction ie UPward (ie the shaft of the hockey stick blade starts to appear ). What will start this “shaft” is anyone’s guess.
Thus, one can only define the bottom in “history- based hindsight”. No one can peg the bottom till after it happens.
In my area, multi -family development property prices literally tripled over the past 4-5 years. My guess is that the value will collapse to at least 1/3 of what they were ratcheted up to ie back to the old pre-boom prices.
Then I will start thinking about the hockey stick graph.
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Whybuywhenucanrent? Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 12:22 pm
No-LYMPICS (66) wrote
“These McMansion/ Monster houses will end up road kill.”
“In a collapsing RE market, my view is a large McMansion becomes a liability, or conversely, its “Improvement”value will depreciate. My guess is that in the next 10 years, the McMansions will be increasingly turned into rooming houses,”
Correct. In 2002 the Asian-style monster houses were selling for only a small premium over lot value. I seriously considered buying one near UBC and turning it into a rooming house (then selling when the market improved), but didn’t.
The thing that will kill the 1990s monster houses is that a lot of them are built with leaky condo technology, and a lot have extremely high operational and repair costs. If your house has a 1500sf footprint and a terra cotta roof, that’s maybe 2500 sf of roof with a ton of ridges and valleys, I’m sure those tiles break once in a while and it costs a couple hundred $ **per tile** to fix them. That and uber-large windows loosing their seal and fogging up, etc., will relegate the 1990s monster houses to the rubbish bin very soon here. Buy one for lot value, rip off the tile roof and replace with asphalt shingles, plug up some of the unnecessarily large windows, and rent as a rooming house or chop up as a tenement house…
WBWUCR?
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Tony Danza Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 12:23 pm
Is Beijing paving the way for Vancouver’s post Olympic flood of rich people who’ll see us on TV and buy up all of our moldy condos (not)?:
A 50+% decrease in sales leaves much new housing vacant. By the end of December, 2008, the number of salable houses and apartments under construction in Beijing reached 188,031, while finished but unsold houses and apartments totaled 174,290, leaving over 360,000 units on the market. If they are sold at 120,000 a year, the rate in 2007, it will take at least 3 years to sell them all, and that’s if no more are built.
Full article at ChinaStakes: http://www.chinastakes.com/story.aspx?id=949
One can only hope Rennie will take a cue from this Realtard:
“If I still can’t sell 10 apartments, I’ll drink 10 bottles of melamine.” –the MSN signature of a sales director of a Beijing-based real estate company.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 12:30 pm
Overseas:
Satyam means truth, but Raju, who resigned as chairman on Wednesday, owned up to creating a tissue of lies
Bangalore: Byrraju Ramalinga Raju, 54, chairman of Satyam Computer Services Ltd and lover of science fiction works by Isaac Asimov and Arthur C. Clarke, will be remembered in Indian business history—not the way he would have wanted, as a successful software entrepreneur, but as the perpetrator of the country’s biggest corporate fraud, one that saw his company resort to fiction to burnish its performance.
http://www.livemint.com/2009/0.....and-f.html
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buff_butler Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 12:41 pm
vancouverboom2, “nothing to offer other than misleading information”
Also the downturn started *before* the media started printing negative press.
Despite what you claim as negativity everything that is happening right now is in books layed out in Economics and Finance. All it takes is to open a book to find out what the actual fundimentals are for specific market sectors (or common sense
). The media quote their “fundimentals” but they never explain what they are or why they come to a specific conclusion.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Securities_Analysis
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Lily pad Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 12:54 pm
Whybuy – just make a tinyurl for your links to post them here. You are allowed a maximum of three per post I believe but it is better to include one per post to make sure it comes through.
http://tinyurl.com/
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vancouverboom2 Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 1:13 pm
Real Paul,
You are safe as long you are in vancouver,It is good for you that you have left that state however all the memories and anecdotals are pasted on your tail,please wipe it off.
Buff Buttler,
Thanks for the link it’s good to learn something from history or anecdotal if one really need to learn specific knowledge but these wall street and usa crisis has been long explained to this forum.What would be better suited info for this forum is an most important issue than wall street collapse,The bottom line conclusion for your post maybe you have heard of “buy within your means” but you have never ever heard of “sell within your means” Maybe you are not buying but do you see that listing are not that much compare to regular period plus add some percentage from numbers of new home it means not too many people are selling either.
Buying and selling is concern for realtors and their board but not for the genral public,As far as fundamental concern those have been proved once look at the peak prices and prices now.
Vancouver housing sector is fundamentally supported but greed never end sellers sell in greed to by at low buyers sit in greed to buy at low that’s what it takes to secrew up fundamental and all of these greed can not be achieved without shreding jobs of your friends or family members,you may enter in market one day but you can’t fit 3 million people in 625,000 homes,When ever you will return back to market you are going to explode the prices again,In respect to fundamental for fellow citizens it is good to sit on one side without greed then appreciation will be rewarded automatically.
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realpaul Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 1:20 pm
It can happen anywhere including here. Houses for $1000.00
http://money.cnn.com/video/#/v.....e.cnnmoney
#71 you’re quite right. In the 1991 market those McMansion prices ( From 1.2 Mill down to 650K) peaked and crashed within months (of the final completion of my last 3 projects in Richmond Broadmoor area). I was there just FYI for the new real estate promoters.
The prices stayed at 1991 levels until 2002 and then slowly crept back up but have never recovered to the 1.2 mill level. The fact is that they became functionally obselete as time passed ( a decade) and newbie owners sat on them making payments waiting to recover losses. Many now are rooming houses. But in all fairness renting rooms in your house is very common to the culture in HK and China.
I was a 3rd generation builder ( retired now from the racket) , I hammered nails after school and on weekends when I was six. My point being that we did a lot of the work ourselves with quality in mind, people took pride in that stuff back in the 60’s.
When I was building in the 80’s and 90’s I seldom visted the sites, I never met most of the contractors or the buyers. I was hiring contractors and functionaries who havn’t the least interest in quality, we were more interested in scheduling.
Those structures that were built in that time ( beginning in the 80’s) were all built out of the worst crap and materials that a builder can get away with. This includes the SFH’s, condo’s and concrete in every sub area that were built back then. I saw crap built in the very best areas which was doomed to fail because of the crap material and faulty engineering, and I’m talking multi-million dollar home and mega million high rises. DUH, wonder why they leak now?????
We figured if they would pass inspection that they were ‘good enough’. In the 60’s it would take close to a year to build a house. We’d build a few at a time. In the 80’s it would take 3 months, they were just slapped together. The inspectors, city engineers and architects were idiots and should have been prosecuted for the leaky condo mess on the commercial side and frankly we in the industry were shocked and amused when they slid out the back door unscathed. The city’s lawyers were really on thier game shielding layers of scum from tainting the skirts of the mucky mucks.
But thats a big ’so what’ in the building community today. Nobody gives a shit about quality, they really don’t. They might say they do in the ads, but thats because the realturds and the ad men haven’t a clue, today is all about decorating the kitchen because thats where the sale is made.
When an experianced builder walks through a site today it’s all he can do to keep from spitting his lunch through his nose it’s so funny and in many case dangerous, but if the inspectors don’t give a shit and the city doesn’t give a shit and the architect signed off then who’s going to give a shit?
The new Canadian Indian builder, the new Canadian Chinese builder, most of these people have never worn lace up shoes for Petes sake, they have zero understanding of mechanics or construction in this country or thier own, it is just a ‘buisness opportunity’subsidized by the temple bank, half the time with grow op money. Have any of you ever been on a construction site in India? YIKES !!!!!
Oh yeah , they’re famous for quality products and food exports. LOL, thats why when buildings fail in China and India the entire structure crumbles into a pile of dust. If you want a quality home built you have to hire a European ( or someone)with a lifelong understanding of this type of structural development. If you have to explain electrical wiring is or what a hot water tank is to a ‘builder’ then maybe you should rethink your contract. I have had this experiance.
In the 60’s a builder put his name on a product and stood by it for generations, by the 80’s I was creating numbered company ( zero liablity entities) and contracting projects to new immigrants for a profit and half the time I never set foot on the land. Most of home owners had never lived in SFH and couldn’t find thier way up a set of stairs, never mind ask how the studs were spaced.
Building Tommorows Ghettos Today, I allways got a laugh from that idea.
Another line I like is from the Pirates of the Caribbean movie where Capt. Jack says in a toast “Take what you can and give nothing back.” This seems to have become the maxim for buisness in Vancouver.
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realpaul Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 1:24 pm
#76 HUH?
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 1:33 pm
Village Realtor/Specuvestor/Economist college
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v.....re=related
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 1:41 pm
From post # 73
QUOTE:
“If I still can’t sell 10 apartments, I’ll drink 10 bottles of melamine.” –the MSN signature of a sales director of a Beijing-based real estate company.
Is this the new contemporary version of ” Hari – Kari ” ?
How big are the bottles ? One Gallon?, Barrel ?
From Wikipedia
” Ingestion of melamine may lead to reproductive damage, or bladder or kidney stones, which can lead to bladder cancer.[15][19][20][21][22]”
Reproductive damage?
Realturd is a genetic thing passed down , isn’t it?
So…Melamine can’t be all THAT bad .
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realpaul Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 1:41 pm
#80
Classic THX
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Lily pad Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 1:51 pm
realpaul #78: My posting #76 was for Whybuywhenucanrent (aka Whybuy)’s posting #68 in which it was stated that the links weren’t coming through on VCI. Sorry for any confusion
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Lily pad Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 2:05 pm
realpaul #65: My point about the McMansions was that they are a world wide phenomenon, not particular to BC. That’s all.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 2:07 pm
RealPaul:
Post # 78
Ya had me fooled…I though you were under 25 LOL
One day someone will spill the bean on how so much sh*t got built and passed
Some family members have a 20 + year old condo .
The entire building is now undergoing a “leaky condo” restoration.
However, there was a delay in permits.
Family told me that their Stratas’ Lawyers were in discussion with the City Lawyers.
Apparently ( and not the first time I have heard of this ) , in boom times, the inspectors may not even do a proper inspection…they are too busy , will ” trust” the workmanship and simply sign off on it.
Apparently the discussion between the lawyers revolved around original flaws that should have been caught by the inspectors, which the City feared would become evident as the restoration proceeded . Not sure how it got resolved.
That’s the probelm in boom times…prices rise and quality suffers. Builders run and buyers get shafted . Gov’ts and their minions are the worst pimps in boom times.
I have a neighbour who sued the City on a similar case…(septic tank system failed) In court , it was revealed the City inspector did a drive by and signed off, never even stepped on the property.
I am sure there are P-L-E-N-T-Y of other similar horror stories
Any other professional would be sanctioned and their license suspended.
Oh I forgot , it’s the Gov’t, that’s DIFFERENT.
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I told you so Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 2:08 pm
Just when we thought that we had ran out of RE topics for this blog…..Here is Bob Rennie promoting affordable housing for Vancouver.
http://www.bcbusinessonline.ca.....own-divide
Is it just me or is there a change in his attitude? Guys I think we have done it. We turned him away from the dark side of the RE force.
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realpaul Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 2:27 pm
#77 VBOOM2 If you are asking us (me) to stop referancing historical facts or pointing out the obvious for the sake of a better mangaged future propagada campaign by you, no can do senor. The truth is just the truth , warts and all, deal with it.
Wasn’t there a scene in that 60’s movie ‘Soylent Green’ where you could choose to opt out of the ugly reality by electing to die ( they would kill you while a nice movie about pleasent things was shown)and you would become food
( soylent green) for the desperate masses.
I think that the developer community ( realtards, REBGV etc) thinks of us as food and would like us to turn our lives ( money) over to them for thier own benefit.
Sticking your head in the sand is not going to save the jobs of your family and friends you have referanced in past postings. If you find yourself in a bad position….move, thats more appropriate to the circumstance.
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The Pope Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 2:28 pm
@Whybuywhenucanrent?: Great links!
Thanks for posting those and sorry about the moderation hold-up. Just so everyone knows the spam filter holds any comment with more than two links, and your safest bet is to have only one link per comment.
I know this is inconvenient, but if you saw the spam that its keeping out of the comment section you’d understand why I keep it this way.
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The Pope Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 2:34 pm
NEW FEATURE! The problem with replying to post numbers is that they can change if a comment is released from moderation. This should fix that problem:
To reply directly to a post just click the light grey arrow to the right of the posters name. This will automatically bring you to the comment box and create a clickable hotlink to the original comment with their name. This should make it a lot easier to tell which replies are to which comment.
Please vote this comment up so other readers are aware of this new feature.
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arit Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 2:37 pm
WBWUCR
“If your house has a 1500sf footprint and a terra cotta roof, that’s maybe 2500 sf of roof with a ton of ridges and valleys”
Could you, or someone else, explain to the dumb immigrant how is the square footage of a house measured? If I have two houses with the same foot print but one is only one floor and the other is three floors – do they have the same “square footage”?
Realpaul:
Do you do consulting work? Can I hire you at 100$/hr for a few hours in 2016? Am I too cheap? OK, 200$…
Regards
arit
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betamax Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 2:40 pm
@The Pope: Cool feature, thx!
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realpaul Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 2:44 pm
#86 I told you so:
This is a paid for publicist writing on behalf of ‘The Big Boobster” not the Big Doofus’ writing himself. This is ad space which has been purchased in BC buisness mag by ” The Dog Face Loser” , not a publishers intrest in Boobie’s POV.
If you pay them they will print any drivel you may wish to puke up yourself.
No-Lympics wrote a very good post of how Bobby ( the lisping fairy ) Rennie was trying to re-write his legacy and manage his failed reputation.
I think No-Lympics hit the nail right on the head. Maybe you could clip that section and repost it.
Bob ( the biggest dipshit in town ) Rennie is having a hard time sleeping at night after going out on the town and having people throw shit at him, get in his face and call him an asshole publicly in events and smaller spaces.
Boo Hoo, Boobster , you’re not fooling anyone with these puff pieces..
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Lily pad Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 2:45 pm
@betamax:
testing
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Lily pad Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 2:47 pm
@The Pope: I like it!
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realpaul Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 2:48 pm
@arit: Thanks for the offer, if I’m not too busy in 2016 building a defensive wall around my property and loading ammunition I’ll make some noise about being available.
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realpaul Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 2:51 pm
@arit:
howzabout this for you, a template and all
http://homebuying.about.com/od.....ootage.htm
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Lily pad Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 3:02 pm
@arit:
Arit: The square footage is measured by the area (Length X Width). If you have a 10 ft. X 10 ft. room the square footage is 100 square feet.
If you have two floors each of 1500 square feet the total square footage of the home would be 3000 square feet.
The way that mls (at least in BC) describes the size of a house in the “finished” square feet. So if the basement is unfinished the square footage of the aforementioned house would be reported as 1500, not 3000 even though the house is actually 3000 sq. ft. Other provinces and countries do not necessarily follow the same procedure, you need to check the procedures of the mls or real estate database.
Some countries use square meter, which is basically 1/10 of the square footage number when calculated.
Here is a conversion program, which you are undoubtedly familiar with:
http://www.escapeartist.com/Co....._Feet.html
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arit Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 3:02 pm
@realpaul:
Hi realpaul:
IF I understand your link correctly, THEN two houses with the same foot print but one is only one floor and the other is three floors – DO have the same square footage.
Regarding defensive wall and ammunition: People mocked me when I insisted that my house will be bulletproof, but then again, they never had a need for a bulletproof house.
Maybe I’ll trade you my extensive (modesty aside, relevant) security knowledge for your extensive building knowledge. Weaponry is my middle name.
Regards,
arit
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arit Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 3:04 pm
Lily pad:
Oops: According to what you say, I misunderstood reapaul’s link. They do not mention floors there.
Regards,
arit
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 3:05 pm
Arit:
re Square Footage:
I recall there was (or once was) a company which offered a service to literally calculateand nail down a given residence to the sq. ft.
There main forte’ was legal based, ie a lot of people were buying units advertised at ” X ” sq. ft…but found out it was not as advertised. Complicated layouts can make this a bit of a challenge. They used the info to build “breach of contract” etc. cases if need be.
If not mistaken the square footage is traditionally measured from the outside of the building, so in essence tha actual liviing space is much less ( due to wall thickness etc.)
BTW :
My Dad is an immigrant,and he said there is no such thing as a stupid question…the wisest people ask questions and the rest pretend or think they know.
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NumbersRCool Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 3:18 pm
Hey YLTNboomerang
Your excel spreadsheets along with the charts and graphs on this awesome blog are the first things to excite us in a long time. Thank you!
http://vancouvercondo.info/200.....cking.html
We would really appreciate another excel spreed for the rest of 2008 or be educated on how to get this data ourselves.
My wife and I are finally feeling it is time to explore buying a townhouse downtown. We are both stable, mid-30ish, very bearish professionals who work and live (rent cheap, but nice) downtown. Our incomes are high enough that we could have bought in the foolish folly, but we have chosen to continue investing in other safer stuff than overpriced boxes in Vancouver over the past 5 years.
I have owned 2 detached homes in 2 other less expensive markets. What we do not like about Canadian RE is that the key information (numbers) are so hard to come by w/o a realtor, and even then its not really all the good stuff.
We appreciate you for helping give us hope and financial facts with your information. Numbers never lie.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 3:37 pm
Re: Bob Rennie and creating affordable housing:
He already has..what goes around comes around.
He obviously hasn’t heard of how DeBeers works.
He and his RE ilk fuelled wreckless speculation with abandon.
They likely lobbied the Feds to go the 0/40 route.
They flooded the market.
When the dust settles after the crash, and the bodies removed, housing will be more affordable than it ever will be, if you define affordability as the RE prices drop.
Only kicker is the unemployment rate.
THE basic fundamentals of supply and demand will kick in…just like the law of gravity.
Rennie sounds typical of these get rich quick types…make their fortune THEN find religion “giving back to the community”. What’s the ratio of how much did they take on the way up versus what they give back looking down .
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realpaul Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 3:44 pm
arit:
Arit, sq footage is one measurement as per the ‘footprint’ you referance. There is also TSCR – total site coverage ratio which when aligned with the front,side, rear setbacks as per zoning will also define ‘footprint’.
An example is the ‘wedding cake’ or ‘McMansion’ design of many newer res devs in vanc. In order to maximize sq footage the base will be maximized to the detriment of the upper floor(s). the upper floors look ‘chopped’ because the TSCR does not allow additional sq.footage. The predessor ( the Monster house) was a series of design that were dictated by the by laws of the time.
So a lot depends on lot size and zoning as you see. The Monster houses so many people refer to were a result of the market driving design. The economic neccesity of eliminating decadent space by maximizing sq. footage as per the allowable TSCR.
It wasn’t a Chinese thing ( the Monster House ) to begin with, they knew nothing of our by-laws, they just got stuck with the product and were subsequently branded as exploiters by the neighbours who were living in 1940’s bungalows in those areas west of Ontario st..
It came about that the new Chinese immigrants , particularily from HK are lemming like and they all wanted the same thing once we got the ball rolling. So we got the cookie cutter out and fed them all they could swallow.
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Yalie Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 4:17 pm
NumbersRCool: Why the rush to buy? The bottom of the market won’t be in for at least 2 more years. Prices have only declined 15% or so from the peak. If you look at past cycles, the peak to valley is usually about 3-4 years. If I were you, I’d wait until 2011 and buy at 30% off today’s prices.
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Anonymous Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 4:47 pm
“We wake up in the morning wondering if we’re going to have a home in six months,” said Sheila. “We don’t know how we’re going to do it.”
Poor construction in the leaky condo era allowed water to seep into the structure of the building. …
The pressure has some owners turning on each other. Just Saturday night, the police had to be called because of an altercation between owners, said Luke Tutty.
Owners have to have the cash by Christmas — although the Tutties are not sure how they’re going to come up with it.
“It’s just a really tough time for people in this building,” said Luke Tutty. ”
http://www.ctvbc.ctv.ca/servle.....lumbiaHome
You wonder how builders of such crap can look themselves in the mirror in the morning without puking.
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john Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 4:48 pm
Thankfully condos remain unaffected since rich asians love condos and not houses. Everyone I know who owns a condo is up big time and so am I. I’m just thankful I didn’t waste money on rent all these years.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 5:07 pm
Hey John:
On the news they said that luxury SUV makers will provide purchasers with a free car as a bonus (value of about $12,000.)
Seriously.
They will even take it back if you get laid off.
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Anonymous Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 5:15 pm
John,
Follow the link through #86.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 5:23 pm
Link re: Strata ownership in BC ( Dec. 31, 2007 )
BC Assessment data
http://www.visoa.bc.ca/static/Strata%20Ownership%
20Statistics2.pdf
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 5:24 pm
Sorry ….try again
http://www.visoa.bc.ca/static/.....stics2.pdf
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Rod Chimpman BS expert Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 6:22 pm
The new spin from Phil Soper and Co. is that the economic news is keeping buyers away, I guess the implication is that as soon as economic conditions improve, (2nd half of 2009), the buyers will be back to set new price and past sales levels, so hurry while you can.
Couple of things wrong Peddler Soper’s spin, the economy in 2009 may get worse, and the shyster is implying buyers have been buying based on economics.
The truth is the past buyers did not use calculators, so why would they start now. I think we have finally run out of greater fools.
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Anonymous Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 8:05 pm
Sorry i am into Houses not Condos, why the obsession with Condos. You continue to include housing data.
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realpaul Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 9:36 pm
The PREVIEW number has an additional 22000 job losses in Dec added to the 70000 lost in Nov.
These numbers are only preliminary, the real numbers are probably much worse. The Preview numbers for Nov were 15000 and wound up at 70000.
http://www.fxstreet.com/news/f.....3fd1d6f66d
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Anonymous Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 9:49 pm
A sign of the times: a surge in filings for unemployment benefits has apparently crashed online application systems in four states this week.
http://www.datacenterknowledge.....web-sites/
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realpaul Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 10:18 pm
Anonymous:
http://uk.reuters.com/article/.....7520090108
small buisnesses puking up jobs in dec.
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MrBear Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 10:21 pm
And the next shoe drops – China is losing its appetite for US debt:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01.....r=1&hp
Are these shoes coming off a horse or a centipede?
No matter, I’m going to see if I can buy any gold somewhere.
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MrBear Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 10:26 pm
I guess I should point out why China’s debt purchases are relevant to real estate, for anyone who has been living under a rock lately:
“China’s voracious demand for American bonds has helped keep interest rates low for borrowers ranging from the federal government to home buyers. Reduced Chinese enthusiasm for buying American bonds will reduce this dampening effect.”
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realpaul Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 10:40 pm
canadian personal debt up to 131% of disposable income.
http://www.progressive-economi.....t-problem/
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arit Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 11:20 pm
Sweet dreams are made of this
Who am I to disagree?
Travel the world and the seven seas
Everybody’s looking for something
Some of them want to use you
Some of them want to get used by you
Some of them want to abuse you
Some of them want to be abused
(Eurythmics)
————————
REALTOR NEEDED
Assessed property at $240.000, looking to sell immediatley, we want to sell for the above price which is $260.000
We would like to hire a realtor, at a 4% commission rate on the first 100.000 dollars and 1% on the remainder to sell our house.
Please do not contact us if this will not work for you we are not interested in any other arrangments, thank you.
Here are the details for our Condo, which was previously listed on MLS with a realtor for $285.000.
Gorgeous 17th Floor Apartment.
Former 2 Bedroom Apartment Remodeled into 1 bedroom modern open design.
…..
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....31589.html
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Lily pad Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 6:24 am
arit: Arit, that commission would be 5,600 if they get their price. About 1/2 that of the boom rate. Tighten your belts, folks.
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Lily pad Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 7:59 am
Said with tongue in cheek:)
http://www.foxbusiness.com/sto.....s-bailout/
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arit Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 8:11 am
Why tongue in cheek?
The adult entertainment industry provides a solid product that users really like. The US auto industry provides crap cars that nobody likes.
The adult entertainment industry employs the best of the best in the field (I am serious). The car industry pays 73/hr for having employees do nothing.
I say: If GM deserves bailout, “Pyramid” et all deserve it more.
Regards
arit
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Anonymous Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 8:25 am
arit: Because it’s a joke.
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Anonymous Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 8:27 am
arit: Lighten up, dude!
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MrBear Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 8:45 am
Anonymous: I’m pretty sure arit gets the joke. It’s about as subtle as Benny Hill.
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arit Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 9:03 am
Thank you Mr bear, indeed.
My point was that GM deserves no more bailout than the ‘adult’, but maybe my point wasn’t clear enough…
Regards
arit
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Anonymous Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 9:06 am
This blog is boring without Drachen and Gadwin. Hey you two, if you are out there, what are you up to? Did you buy something? We miss you.
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Drachen Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 9:44 am
I poke my head in from time to time. The problem is there’s very little good debate going on any more.
The war is over, only a few half starved Japanese soldiers on deserted islands are still trying to fight.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 9:47 am
Post # 117
QUOTE:
I guess I should point out why China’s debt purchases are relevant to real estate, for anyone who has been living under a rock lately:
“China’s voracious demand for American bonds has helped keep interest rates low for borrowers ranging from the federal government to home buyers. Reduced Chinese enthusiasm for buying American bonds will reduce this dampening effect.”
=======================================
Good point.
Its this type of info that creates clarity in the Big Picture view of what is going on.
I heard on the news that Mining company Teck – Cominco is laying off about 13% of its workforce. Demand for Coal is down, much of this is due to the slowdown in China. Also more layoffs in the Forest Industry on Vancouver Island.
I am curious if many companies had these layoffs planned for weeks, they simply didn’t want to spoil Xmas for their employees. Maybe the layoff floodgates will begin to open now.
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Anonymous Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 9:52 am
NO -LYMPICS: Hey, why aren’t you using the new feature?
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Lily pad Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 9:59 am
arit:
Does the porn industry take care of their old folks like this?
http://www.autoblog.com/2008/1.....-hour-try/
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asalvari Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 10:12 am
Anonymous:
I think because it does not add the number next to the name, so you have no idea which message the reply is addressing.
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asalvari Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 10:14 am
asalvari@132:
this format would be nice, but difficult to implement.
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Anonymous Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 10:16 am
asalvari: You don’t need the number, just click on the name. Who cares what the number is?
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 10:21 am
If you haven’t heard, Garth Turner has a new book out titled ” AFTER THE CRASH”
Garth Turner, whose 2008 best-seller “Greater Fool” correctly forecast the current residential real estate meltdown, now says “doing nothing is no longer an option” for families facing a crumbling economy. His latest book, “After the Crash: How to Guard your Money in Turbulent Times.” explains why the money contagion now sweeping the world will affect everyone, and could devastate those who fail to get ready.
Among the potential consequences:
• Big new drops in house prices.
• Neighbourhood food shortages.
• Fewer government services. More electricity outages
• Trouble for the Vancouver Olympics.
• A pension crisis.
• Cancellation of some credit cards.
• Empty Big Box stores.
• Despair and debt in the suburbs.
• Firewood at $300 a cord.
• Even a loss of confidence in a Canadian bank.
Turner says any of these – or all of them – are possible over the next two years or more, after the crash of the biggest bubble economy in history. Even a concerted effort by governments around the world, zero interest rates and trillions in new spending may be unable to prevent a deflationary spiral which will cost millions of jobs, drop real estate values in Albertan oil country by half, indebt governments and see more Boomers become Wal-Mart greeters, he says.
=========================================
Trouble for Vancouver Olympics?
How could there not be?
I am just wondering what spins and duct tape they have brewing in the backrooms.
Pension crisis?
Better believe it.
How many people were “planning” in retiremtn by selling their “Million Dollar homes” and relying on their stock market portfolios.
A LOT !!!!
Empty Big Box Stores?
I remember the good old days of department stores.When these Category Killers came in, they effectively kiiled off stores like Woodwards, Eatons etc. We lost a Vancouver classic ie A & B Sound.
However, these Big Box stores have sprung up like weeds. However, I can’t see them lasting in a collapsing economy. They must have have huge overhead. Their business plan must rely on lots of turnover supported by lots of credit. ie ” Don’t pay now till 2010 “! If their own suppliers are cutting back…the writing is one wall. Many of them will become dinosuars like the department stores they displaced / replaced. Ma and Pa businesses may make a big comeback.
Firewood at $300 cord
I don’t know if Garth is trying to be funny? but maybe he isn’t. I know that people do panic when heating costs rise,and switch to firewood, but it’s the same difference when they lose jobs and have to cut costs. Hope the environMENTALists have some sympathy for people who have to resort to this for cooking and heating needs.
Fewer Government services.
I know Campbell and Local Gov’ts bought a lot of labour peace in the Civil Service to carry through past 2010 Olympics.
However, then it will get interesting. Contracts will come up soon after.
Then the citizens are caught up in usual threats of :Cuts in Services ? OR Higher Taxes?
If people can’t pay increased taxes…maybe its time these civil servants faced the REAL world say like airline employees. Accept a freeze of rollback….or there will be layoffs. Otherwise , I sense there may be a major revolt by the increasingly number of unemployed who will resent these literal “Job for Life” civil servant types feeling more deserving of entitlement than even an auto worker.
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arit Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 10:23 am
Lily pad:
Well, I looked into that before, and as far as I am concerned, it is another Ponzi scheme. If the current employees need to work for their own salaries AND their veterans, where did the money that the veterans made go?
Bailout for Ponzi schemes. Great.
By the way, the US social security and medical care system are the same. How come the present generation needs to pay for the previous gen retirement? The answer is simple, the prev gen spent all the money and now are leeching of the new ‘investors’.
Everything in the US economy is a Ponzi scheme. The whole enchilada. I ‘predict’ 2009 will be ‘Year of the Suicide’. Can we short suicides?
Regards
arit
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Lily pad Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 10:30 am
arit:
I’ve heard the union reps claim that the corporations spent the pension money during the boom times when people are less interested in scrutinizing financial spending and now the old folks need the money and it isn’t there. Can you imagine working for a company for x number of years thinking that you are contributing to a pension plan and then when you are retired they say the money is not there in a trust fund where it’s supposed to be? I would be so depressed. Apparently there are investigations into this now because it is illegal to take money from a trust fund and spend it. This is what I heard on BNN.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/.....Apr18.html
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 10:32 am
Lily Pad, Arit , Anonymous.
Great discussions (aka scraping the bottom of the barrel)
No Soup For You.
Instead….”and now for something completely different”
Enjoy !
Catchy tune I recall from my childhood.
( Also , this looks like it was filmed in Vancouver…notice the scenery )
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tm9UklULTjo
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realpaul Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 10:34 am
Appaerntly 131% of debt per dollar of disposable income is just too much. Bankruptcies soar.
http://www.globeinvestor.com/s.....8/GIStory/
In the 80’s (82/83 especially) you could fire a cannon dow Robson St., there were so many stores closed and papered over. Don’t be surprised for that trend to continue.
I would also pay close attention to the ethnic communities whose economic base has become solely reliant on construction and transpo. The Walmart in Queensboro for example could esily be gone by 2010, 90% of the clientele is Indo CDN.
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Lily pad Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 10:39 am
NO -LYMPICS:
And you don’t think quoting Darth Squirrel-eater is scraping the bottom of the barrel?
(Your video is in bad taste.)
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arit Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 10:50 am
NO -LYMPICS:
Nolympics, sorry cannot open that kind of material at work. I’ll watch it tonight.
Regards
arit
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 10:51 am
Re Pensions:
I have read a few times that Private Sector pensions have been used by companies as ” banks ” …..or that they are free to use or even take back any surpluses beyond their obligations. This could get interesting if these have been dipped into and depleted aka how secure ARE they?.
Even within Unions…union officials have been known to dip into funds inappropriately ,leaving their member high and dry with reduced pensions . I met a bricklayer that had to UNretire and go back to work because a union official got sticky fingers.
However, in the Public Sector Pensions ,
I have been told that Gov’t uses these Civil Service Pension Funds as a “bank” for many Gov’t ventures,ie public infrastructure etc. If this is true, and the sh*t hits the fan with Gov’t economic projections all shot , and with liabilities that have to be covered, then the taxpayer is even more on the hook to cover these pension funds and any losses as well, over and above all the OTHER ones that may loom .
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realpaul Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 10:55 am
Spain has a smaller but similar economy to Canada, construction, immigration, service industry, small tech, small manuf, small pop, big government, approx similar stats on union parasitism, pensions, social spending, etc. I follow it because it does not report in US dollar comps so it doesn’t get stuck in the N.AM spin.
http://www.baltimoresun.com/bu.....7107.story
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realpaul Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 10:57 am
realpaul:
I FORGOT TO MENTION A HEAVY RELIANCE ON TOURISM
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 11:04 am
Darth the squirrel eater ?
I love all God’s creatures, right next to the mashed potatoes !!!! (and with a side dish of fava beans and chianti )
Bad Taste ? Moi? …..but you watched it to the end , right ….even the out takes LOL.
(Actually someone sent it to me this morning…then I saw the VCI porn bailout discussion…how timely ! ).
Now back to the ” porn -of -condo -as -a -good -investment ”
Cheers ….and happy squirrel hunting
( PS there is too many of them anyway, like realturds ..but don’t mix them up though. One tastes much less bitter than the other ).
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 11:06 am
realpaul:
No…. Spain was exactly like Canada:
They had Franco and we had Trudeau-sky.
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Lily pad Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 11:08 am
realpaul: NO -LYMPICS:
What I would like to know is what vegetarians are supposed to do when the crunch hits? Do they have to eat squirrels, too? Eeuuww.
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Lily pad Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 11:09 am
realpaul:
Don’t worry, thanks to global warming we will soon have the Canada Canal.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 11:19 am
C’mon Lily Pad.
You strike me as very intelligent
(or what are they teaching you in school these days…oops now I am dating myself).
Think ……T-h-i-n-k ……THINK !
WHAT do squirrels eat?
Squirrels are vegetarians, right ?
SOLUTION:
Find their hiding spot BEFORE Garth shoots them.
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Lily pad Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 11:23 am
NO -LYMPICS:
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asalvari Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 11:26 am
Anonymous:
Yes, I am aware that the name is liked to the post, but if you click you would move around a bit more then you may want to – at least I prefer not to jump around.
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Anonymous Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 11:28 am
asalvari:
Just click on the back button when you are done reading the referenced posting and you are back to where you were.
The back button is the green < arrow at the top left of your web-browser.
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asalvari Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 11:50 am
Anonymous:
Oh, You got them vitamins, no?
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 11:54 am
Speak of the Devil:
Public service pensions:
Don’t reprice stock options: Teachers
http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....y/Business
QUOTE:
TORONTO — One of Canada’s biggest pension funds is urging companies not to reprice stock options or change other types of equity-based compensation to make up for the drubbing their share prices may have taken in the global meltdown of financial markets.
Instead, executives should share the pain with their shareholders, who do not have access to such techniques, the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan said Thursday, as, in advance of annual meeting season, corporate Canada gears up to begin disclosing how much top company officials were paid for their labours in 2008.
If you read the “Comments” section of this article , and just as I had suspected, a lot of angry people.
My view is that the Teachers pensions in Ontario actively decided to invest in the markets. That is a Risk versus Reward scenario they knew going in. They are being pre-emptive in telling THEIR employees (ie Executives of companies they have invested in ) how to deal with such things as options etc.
Hypocrisy !!!:
Many of these teacher groups have no problem signing fat contracts with generous wage increases and class size limits…etc. that the taxpayer is obligated to support… even if these same taxpayers themselves are exposed to major job uncertainty versus job security. They are, in essence, using taxpayer funds to invest in the markets .
Love it or hate it, this option and other forms of compensation issue is an accepted way of doing business.
Are the teachers willing to tighten their own belts?…they shouldn’t have it BOTH ways.
Now many of these Teachers groups are notorious for literally holding students hostages, holding illegal strikes like we had in BC, and getting Gov’ts to fold like a cheap tent and capitulate to their deamnds . They claim ad- nauseum “its for the students”, but the old “greenback poultice” ie Filthy Lucre ie MONEY $$$$$ always seems to shut them up.
I read an article yesterday that across Canda, school enrollment is declining big time, a major demographic shift.
Teachers will be surplus…I can foresee layoffs…and they best engage in well thought out Public Relations campaigns…or the public can and will turn against them and their feelings of entitlement.
Again back to my earlier comment about a potential backlash by the General Public against Civil Servants , which will be their own fault with such ill – advised moves.
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Anonymous Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 11:56 am
asalvari: What are you talking about now?
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Lily pad Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 12:14 pm
NO -LYMPICS:
Well, I don’t really know what to say. I’m not sure what would happen if the price to sell stock options was lowered. Does this mean that the pension plan would sell it’s own stocks this way or some that it owns or what? The article doesn’t really explain the issue, which is a typical problem with journalists. They skate around on the top without really getting to the meat of the issue. I always had trouble following the news as a teenager and now I realize it’s just because the journalists don’t often know what they are talking about so can’t really explain it properly. Sigh.
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scullboy Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 12:15 pm
First of all there some excellent traditional American recipies for squirrel.
That being said Darth Squirrel if pretty far off the reservation. He strikes me as being a little high on his own success in predicting the housing decline (it’s way too early to call it a crash).
Things aren’t going to be great, there’s no getting around that. But Garth’s a little too far off the reservation for my taste.
Make no mistake, things will get rough. Housing prices will drop dramatically.
Things will get rough, no doubt about it, but in bad times people adjust. many houses are large enough so a couple of people can live in ‘em comfortably. I wouldn’t try that in a Yaletown shoebox but there’s a lot of room for efficiency in the ‘burbs (couple of families living in one home, carpooling, etc).
You can eat very, very well on very, very little money. I have friends who eat like kings on a fraction of what most people spend. Green leafy things are relatively cheap. Legumes are cheap. Most spices are cheap. Squashes are cheap. Peasant foods are among the best, if you know how to make them.
People will adjust as they always have. Being prepared for bad times is fine.
Garth, on the other hand has become convinced he’s infallible and now he’s just being stupid.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 12:18 pm
Post # 139
QUOTE:
In the 80’s (82/83 especially) you could fire a cannon dow Robson St., there were so many stores closed and papered over. Don’t be surprised for that trend to continue.
I would also pay close attention to the ethnic communities whose economic base has become solely reliant on construction and transpo. The Walmart in Queensboro for example could esily be gone by 2010, 90% of the clientele is Indo CDN.
========================================
Re Robson Street:
I agree. They tried to turn that place into a high end Rodeo Drive clone….rents were outrageous in good times an dmany couldn’t make a go of it. Keep the newspapers and plywood handy, could get ugly.
Speaking of cannons…Maybe they could put the Nine O’clock gun there in a few years.
ALSO:
Interesting article in paper how once vibrant Vancouver Punjabi area(Fraser Main etc. )is slowly dying. Many people and businesses have moved/economically displaced to Surrey.
Fser street was once a vibrant area for European immigrants as well.
Wal Mart in Queensborough possibly close?? Interesting .
Richmonds proposed Wal Mart seems to have have faded away, no news on it, and it does attract a lot of Richmond shoppers. What about South Vancouvers proposed Wal Mart? A lot of South Asians lived there as well.
However, insiteful comment re the ethnic groups and reliance on construction and transpo. The South Asians are heavily represented in SFH construction , Truck Drivng overall ,….Dump Trucks for construction etc. I am wondering how they will do. All I see now are a few projects that are being finished, but not started.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 1:00 pm
Good points scullboy:
We like predictions that’s A-L-L they are.
True….Garth may be starting to believe his own press clippings.
However he did have a bit of a pass to the inner sanctums of Gov’t albeit a short one.
Plank walkers make good informed talkers, (with a wee bit more motivation).
Time will tell if the latest batch of Garth-brand predictions comes to pass
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 2:20 pm
Lily Pad:
re the options :
My point was that the Teachers Union pension fund was acting in a pre-emptive and perhaps even a biased ” Tar them all ” fashion , by basically telling the Executives of companies they have stock in to tighten THEIR belts, ie lighten up on the perks and bonuses aka engage in cost -cutting.
However, it may be a moot point , given that the Executives of these companies which the Teachers pension has invested in may not get any performance – based bonuses in this poor economy nor may they exercise options for stocks which may be collapsing in value.
As I said, these are the same parties that seem to feel they have entrenched rights of entitlement above and beyond everyone else. In my view, they are simply people with a specific skill , subject to demand , which should be treated no better or no worse than any other working stiff.
Again, expect more self – serving whining from these Public Sector types as the economy tanks.
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realpaul Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 3:08 pm
What keeps the masses stupid in BC is the lack of quality and timely information by governments and the media. Look at this example which shows buisness and personal bankrupty numbers. The last time they reported was JULY!!!! ,,,08 !!!!
If the numbers were becoming this alarming in July 08, then was do you think is happening now ? Sure, you guess that things are worse because you know the economy is tanking. But why do we have to wait months and years to get honest information?
Maybe if people were better informed they could plan ahead to avoid the massive downturns and layoffs in thier industry by retraining themselves or diversifying the labour component in the family unit or such thing.
Why does the government ‘circle the wagons’ and hide the truth until it’s got blood in the streets and has to apply bandaid solutions to terminal problems. Aren’t you sick of this cycle of lies and incompetance ?
http://www.bivinteractive.com/.....;Itemid=46
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 3:13 pm
Op/Ed
Newspapers facing a death spiral?
http://thetyee.ca/Blogs/TheHoo.....athSpiral/
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 3:17 pm
From the link I just posted
QUOTE:
Amid reports of war, economic meltdown, and political coalitions, the newspapers haven’t really covered the news of their own demise – except in their own trade journals and blogs.
Maybe that’s because not enough reporters and editors are still working. According to the blog Paper Cuts, at least 15,586 U.S. journalists lost their jobs in 2008, and another 210 have been laid off in the first week of 2009.
========================================================
ALSO: End of thr NY Times ???:
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc.....york-times
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Anonymous Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 3:45 pm
Has Chipman closed down his blog?
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 4:02 pm
Re the idea of use the surplus condos for social housing ?
“Historic hotel reopens to serve Vancouver’s homeless”
http://thetyee.ca/Blogs/TheHoo.....l-reopens/
QUOTE:
All 44 apartments are self-contained suites, with full bathrooms and kitchenettes, like tiny apartments. (The average size is about 250 square feet.)
There is office space on each floor where health care workers and counsellors can meet with residents on a routine basis, enabling clients to begin treatment for mental health and addiction issues in a safe and secure environment.
And while the interior of the five-storey building is fully modernized (12 units are even wheelchair accessible), the 103-year-old exterior has been fully restored to regain its perch as a heritage landmark at the corner of Hastings and Carrall streets.
(At an average of $326,000 per unit, the Pennsylvania apartments were only slightly more expensive than new construction, and include not only the renovation of the historic façade but also revenue-generating retail and restaurant spaces on the ground floor.)
etc.
etc.
==============================================
So…..
—-average size 250 sq.ft per SRO unit
—-slightly more expensive than new construction .
Difference here is that ALL these units are all managed under the umbrella of social housing, and NOT bits and pieces of social housing in 30 + storey foreclosed on hi-rise towers.
(….OR in other words,the Gov’t isn’t going to go shopping on CraigsList and take over your condo assignment and save thine bacon ).
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Lily pad Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 4:33 pm
NO -LYMPICS:
Here is a discussion of the teacher’s pension issue on BNN for anyone who’s interested.
http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip127886
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Lily pad Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 4:58 pm
scullboy:
Hey Skullboy, it looks like squirrel is a delicacy now so it may not be around when the crunch hits! We’ll have to eat rats!
http://www.iht.com/articles/20.....uirrel.php
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realpaul Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 5:26 pm
NO -LYMPICS:
“Slightly more expensive than new construction”? Excuse me? Did they really say that?
$326K for 250 sq.ft is $1304 per sq ft.!!!!!!
Holy Christ!!! Talk about ripping off the Donors who financed this. New construction is less than $90.
What is $1300 ? This amount of money away to some union contractor at 20 times the going rate for new construction.
They could have given the homeless person an income of $1300 per month for 20 years !!!!!
326,000 divided by 1304 = 250 ( months) divided by 12 (months) equals 20.83 years.
BTW the students at Emily carr had a presentation of housing designs of 250 sq.ft which had all the same amenities which could be built for $1000.00.
Whoever donated money for this project will probably not do it again. No one likes to get ripped off by politically correct ’shit for brains’ at City Hall.
Not even a radical advocate for the homeless can rationally support this boondoggle. It just rips off the money that should be going into homeless projects and lines the pocket of a rip off political club.
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blueskies Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 5:46 pm
Anonymous:
no blog is still up ‘n running….
why do you ask?
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Van-zee Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 5:56 pm
xurbia.ca = “The Whole Garth Catalog”
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realpaul Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 5:57 pm
More jobs cuts in tech. Is anyone keeping track?
http://www.itpro.co.uk/609476/.....umours-fly
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asalvari Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 6:09 pm
blueskies:
Indeed, I am getting the 404 error on chipman blog as well.
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Lily pad Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 6:12 pm
realpaul:
Re: Dell transferring jobs from Ireland to Poland. Ya, depressing for the Irish, but think about how happy the Poles are!
Apparently Wall Street used a lot of computers during the roaring 2000’s and now they don’t need them, hence the layoffs of the Chinese firm.
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Anonymous Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 6:44 pm
Just to levitate the situation here are some jokes.
http://www.realestatehumor.com.....&cat=4
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realpaul Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 7:31 pm
Real estate is in weak hands. We will have a ‘double dip’ if there is any sign of nascent recovery. The flippers will dump properties en masse and cause a double crash .
“You don’t have it in strong hands, you have flippers,” said Shiller, who helped create the S&P/Case Shiller real estate price indexes. “These speculators are preventing the market from crashing now, and when they get out it could fall again.”
Schiller is describing the ‘dead cat bounce’ which will sucker in new buyers when a first false bottom is percieved. In a crash, things crash and then crash again, then a recovery seems to be in the offing for a while unti wham, it crashes again. Bear markets are ugly, they want to take as many victims down as possible.
“Oh momma can this really be the end. I am stuck inside a mobile with the memphis blues again.”
Bob Dylan had a away with words didn’t he?
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blueskies Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 7:41 pm
a heart warming RE tale from NYT:
http://tinyurl.com/6varzk
gotta love it!
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 7:48 pm
Realpaul
Re the cost of social housing.
QUOTE:
$326K for 250 sq.ft is $1304 per sq ft.!!!!!!
Holy Christ!!! Talk about ripping off the Donors who financed this. New construction is less than $90.
They probably have the same bean counters as the 2010 games.
By the time they bring these things up to Gov’t standards, the cost rolls up BIG time.
In THEIR world , if they built it NEW up to Gov’t standards, it is “only slightly more expensive”…….that is THEIR term of reference. Gov’t tends to go Cadillac when Chevy will do.
However, they have lots of SRO’s the BC Gov’t bought..maybe the Gov’t envisions renovating these as make work projects in a slow economy. However, the 2010 Olympics are just over a year away, and no solution for the homeless etc, yet that I have heard of.
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For Sale, zero down Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 8:31 pm
“Indeed, I am getting the 404 error on chipman blog as well”.
I think the shameless pitchman is experimenting with some program which redirects posters from IPs which may challenge his bull.
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Anonymous Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 8:49 pm
For Sale, zero down: Yes, I agree. He probably can’t pay his blog bills, either.
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Lily pad Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 8:51 pm
blueskies: Blueskies: what is the title of the article? I just get a nyt sign up form.
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blueskies Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 8:58 pm
Lily pad:
here it is through google news:
http://tinyurl.com/8×2v6y
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anonymous Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 8:59 pm
No wonder he shut it down, dealing with you clowns every day. No clients coming out of the group, he was wasting his time.
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blueskies Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 9:00 pm
blueskies:
article title
can be searched through google news
Surrendering to the Landscape
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Except for the name and a few minor changes Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 9:00 pm
The damage Lereah caused, of course, was serious, especially for the many home buyers who bought the hype. Lereah said he now expects only a modest recovery in sales activity this year.
“I was wrong,” Lereah told Money. “I have to take responsibility for that.”
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asalvari Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 9:13 pm
Anonymous:
Naaaah.. for moment you got me there, lol. anyways I did change the IP and still nothing. Are you guys saying that somebody can actually access the blog?
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Lily pad Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 9:17 pm
blueskies: OMG! That is an amazing house. Just amazing!!!!! I think I’m in love!
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Anonymous Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 9:19 pm
asalvari: The problem is intermittent. Anyway, don’t fret. There’s nothing there worth reading anyway.
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Anonymous Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 9:20 pm
anonymous: Actually, I have to agree. There is no way anyone would take him seriously after reading the crap on his blog.
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blueskies Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 9:34 pm
Lily pad:
real architecture!
i like visionary statements like that
stands out from the herd
but then a million dollars should
talk pretty loud unless you are in
Vancouver
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Anonymous Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 10:03 pm
http://www.mls.ca/propertyDeta.....Id=7815719
Assessed value 3.74M
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Noname Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 11:51 pm
realpaul:
$326000 @ 5% interest rate will generate interest $16300 per year and that is $1358 per month. They can give $1358 per month to those homeless person forever.