December ‘08 House prices drop again
Well the official stats are out for December 2008. How did our local Vancouver real estate market fare? You can probably detect the general direction of Vancouver house prices in the following graph:
The drop was slightly less than November ‘08, falling $18,104 to a benchmark price of $648,421. So far the benchmark has dropped $122,900 from the market peak last spring.
UPDATE: Bubble lad just posted a link to this story in today’s Sun: Metro Vancouver to see deepest property price dip.
Metro Vancouver’s home prices rose the highest in Canada’s property boom and will fall the furthest in its correction, real estate firm Royal LePage has forecast. Royal LePage Real Estate Services, in its 2009 market survey forecast released Tuesday, predicted that Metro’s average home price will decline nine per cent in 2009 to $540,100 from a 2008 forecast of $593,500.
That will be almost three times deeper than the national average decline for 2009 of three per cent, which should bring the average home price down to $295,000 nationally.
Royal LePage CEO Phil Soper said that over the long term, home-price appreciation should rise in line with the rate that a city’s incomes rise. “Over the last seven years, Vancouver prices increased at a rate significantly above the underlying appreciation of people’s incomes,” Soper said in an interview.
Don’t listen to the negativity. Local incomes are irrelevant. OUR market is different,it’s fueled by a special blend of upbeat naivety and magic pony-power.
Besides, it’s only money.
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January 8th, 2009 at 11:51 pm
realpaul:
$326000 @ 5% interest rate will generate interest $16300 per year and that is $1358 per month. They can give $1358 per month to those homeless person forever.
January 8th, 2009 at 10:03 pm
http://www.mls.ca/propertyDeta.....Id=7815719
Assessed value 3.74M
January 8th, 2009 at 9:34 pm
Lily pad:
real architecture!
i like visionary statements like that
stands out from the herd
but then a million dollars should
talk pretty loud unless you are in
Vancouver
January 8th, 2009 at 9:20 pm
anonymous: Actually, I have to agree. There is no way anyone would take him seriously after reading the crap on his blog.
January 8th, 2009 at 9:19 pm
asalvari: The problem is intermittent. Anyway, don’t fret. There’s nothing there worth reading anyway.
January 8th, 2009 at 9:17 pm
blueskies: OMG! That is an amazing house. Just amazing!!!!! I think I’m in love!
January 8th, 2009 at 9:13 pm
Anonymous:
Naaaah.. for moment you got me there, lol. anyways I did change the IP and still nothing. Are you guys saying that somebody can actually access the blog?
January 8th, 2009 at 9:00 pm
The damage Lereah caused, of course, was serious, especially for the many home buyers who bought the hype. Lereah said he now expects only a modest recovery in sales activity this year.
“I was wrong,” Lereah told Money. “I have to take responsibility for that.”
January 8th, 2009 at 9:00 pm
blueskies:
article title
can be searched through google news
Surrendering to the Landscape
January 8th, 2009 at 8:59 pm
No wonder he shut it down, dealing with you clowns every day. No clients coming out of the group, he was wasting his time.
January 8th, 2009 at 8:58 pm
Lily pad:
here it is through google news:
http://tinyurl.com/8×2v6y
January 8th, 2009 at 8:51 pm
blueskies: Blueskies: what is the title of the article? I just get a nyt sign up form.
January 8th, 2009 at 8:49 pm
For Sale, zero down: Yes, I agree. He probably can’t pay his blog bills, either.
January 8th, 2009 at 8:31 pm
“Indeed, I am getting the 404 error on chipman blog as well”.
I think the shameless pitchman is experimenting with some program which redirects posters from IPs which may challenge his bull.
January 8th, 2009 at 7:48 pm
Realpaul
Re the cost of social housing.
QUOTE:
$326K for 250 sq.ft is $1304 per sq ft.!!!!!!
Holy Christ!!! Talk about ripping off the Donors who financed this. New construction is less than $90.
They probably have the same bean counters as the 2010 games.
By the time they bring these things up to Gov’t standards, the cost rolls up BIG time.
In THEIR world , if they built it NEW up to Gov’t standards, it is “only slightly more expensive”…….that is THEIR term of reference. Gov’t tends to go Cadillac when Chevy will do.
However, they have lots of SRO’s the BC Gov’t bought..maybe the Gov’t envisions renovating these as make work projects in a slow economy. However, the 2010 Olympics are just over a year away, and no solution for the homeless etc, yet that I have heard of.
January 8th, 2009 at 7:41 pm
a heart warming RE tale from NYT:
http://tinyurl.com/6varzk
gotta love it!
January 8th, 2009 at 7:31 pm
Real estate is in weak hands. We will have a ‘double dip’ if there is any sign of nascent recovery. The flippers will dump properties en masse and cause a double crash .
“You don’t have it in strong hands, you have flippers,” said Shiller, who helped create the S&P/Case Shiller real estate price indexes. “These speculators are preventing the market from crashing now, and when they get out it could fall again.”
Schiller is describing the ‘dead cat bounce’ which will sucker in new buyers when a first false bottom is percieved. In a crash, things crash and then crash again, then a recovery seems to be in the offing for a while unti wham, it crashes again. Bear markets are ugly, they want to take as many victims down as possible.
“Oh momma can this really be the end. I am stuck inside a mobile with the memphis blues again.”
Bob Dylan had a away with words didn’t he?
January 8th, 2009 at 6:44 pm
Just to levitate the situation here are some jokes.
http://www.realestatehumor.com.....&cat=4
January 8th, 2009 at 6:12 pm
realpaul:
Re: Dell transferring jobs from Ireland to Poland. Ya, depressing for the Irish, but think about how happy the Poles are!
Apparently Wall Street used a lot of computers during the roaring 2000’s and now they don’t need them, hence the layoffs of the Chinese firm.
January 8th, 2009 at 6:09 pm
blueskies:
Indeed, I am getting the 404 error on chipman blog as well.
January 8th, 2009 at 5:57 pm
More jobs cuts in tech. Is anyone keeping track?
http://www.itpro.co.uk/609476/.....umours-fly
January 8th, 2009 at 5:56 pm
xurbia.ca = “The Whole Garth Catalog”
January 8th, 2009 at 5:46 pm
Anonymous:
no blog is still up ‘n running….
why do you ask?
January 8th, 2009 at 5:26 pm
NO -LYMPICS:
“Slightly more expensive than new construction”? Excuse me? Did they really say that?
$326K for 250 sq.ft is $1304 per sq ft.!!!!!!
Holy Christ!!! Talk about ripping off the Donors who financed this. New construction is less than $90.
What is $1300 ? This amount of money away to some union contractor at 20 times the going rate for new construction.
They could have given the homeless person an income of $1300 per month for 20 years !!!!!
326,000 divided by 1304 = 250 ( months) divided by 12 (months) equals 20.83 years.
BTW the students at Emily carr had a presentation of housing designs of 250 sq.ft which had all the same amenities which could be built for $1000.00.
Whoever donated money for this project will probably not do it again. No one likes to get ripped off by politically correct ’shit for brains’ at City Hall.
Not even a radical advocate for the homeless can rationally support this boondoggle. It just rips off the money that should be going into homeless projects and lines the pocket of a rip off political club.
January 8th, 2009 at 4:58 pm
scullboy:
Hey Skullboy, it looks like squirrel is a delicacy now so it may not be around when the crunch hits! We’ll have to eat rats!
http://www.iht.com/articles/20.....uirrel.php
January 8th, 2009 at 4:33 pm
NO -LYMPICS:
Here is a discussion of the teacher’s pension issue on BNN for anyone who’s interested.
http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip127886
January 8th, 2009 at 4:02 pm
Re the idea of use the surplus condos for social housing ?
“Historic hotel reopens to serve Vancouver’s homeless”
http://thetyee.ca/Blogs/TheHoo.....l-reopens/
QUOTE:
All 44 apartments are self-contained suites, with full bathrooms and kitchenettes, like tiny apartments. (The average size is about 250 square feet.)
There is office space on each floor where health care workers and counsellors can meet with residents on a routine basis, enabling clients to begin treatment for mental health and addiction issues in a safe and secure environment.
And while the interior of the five-storey building is fully modernized (12 units are even wheelchair accessible), the 103-year-old exterior has been fully restored to regain its perch as a heritage landmark at the corner of Hastings and Carrall streets.
(At an average of $326,000 per unit, the Pennsylvania apartments were only slightly more expensive than new construction, and include not only the renovation of the historic façade but also revenue-generating retail and restaurant spaces on the ground floor.)
etc.
etc.
==============================================
So…..
—-average size 250 sq.ft per SRO unit
—-slightly more expensive than new construction .
Difference here is that ALL these units are all managed under the umbrella of social housing, and NOT bits and pieces of social housing in 30 + storey foreclosed on hi-rise towers.
(….OR in other words,the Gov’t isn’t going to go shopping on CraigsList and take over your condo assignment and save thine bacon ).
January 8th, 2009 at 3:45 pm
Has Chipman closed down his blog?
January 8th, 2009 at 3:17 pm
From the link I just posted
QUOTE:
Amid reports of war, economic meltdown, and political coalitions, the newspapers haven’t really covered the news of their own demise – except in their own trade journals and blogs.
Maybe that’s because not enough reporters and editors are still working. According to the blog Paper Cuts, at least 15,586 U.S. journalists lost their jobs in 2008, and another 210 have been laid off in the first week of 2009.
========================================================
ALSO: End of thr NY Times ???:
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc.....york-times
January 8th, 2009 at 3:13 pm
Op/Ed
Newspapers facing a death spiral?
http://thetyee.ca/Blogs/TheHoo.....athSpiral/
January 8th, 2009 at 3:08 pm
What keeps the masses stupid in BC is the lack of quality and timely information by governments and the media. Look at this example which shows buisness and personal bankrupty numbers. The last time they reported was JULY!!!! ,,,08 !!!!
If the numbers were becoming this alarming in July 08, then was do you think is happening now ? Sure, you guess that things are worse because you know the economy is tanking. But why do we have to wait months and years to get honest information?
Maybe if people were better informed they could plan ahead to avoid the massive downturns and layoffs in thier industry by retraining themselves or diversifying the labour component in the family unit or such thing.
Why does the government ‘circle the wagons’ and hide the truth until it’s got blood in the streets and has to apply bandaid solutions to terminal problems. Aren’t you sick of this cycle of lies and incompetance ?
http://www.bivinteractive.com/.....;Itemid=46
January 8th, 2009 at 2:20 pm
Lily Pad:
re the options :
My point was that the Teachers Union pension fund was acting in a pre-emptive and perhaps even a biased ” Tar them all ” fashion , by basically telling the Executives of companies they have stock in to tighten THEIR belts, ie lighten up on the perks and bonuses aka engage in cost -cutting.
However, it may be a moot point , given that the Executives of these companies which the Teachers pension has invested in may not get any performance – based bonuses in this poor economy nor may they exercise options for stocks which may be collapsing in value.
As I said, these are the same parties that seem to feel they have entrenched rights of entitlement above and beyond everyone else. In my view, they are simply people with a specific skill , subject to demand , which should be treated no better or no worse than any other working stiff.
Again, expect more self – serving whining from these Public Sector types as the economy tanks.
January 8th, 2009 at 1:00 pm
Good points scullboy:
We like predictions that’s A-L-L they are.
True….Garth may be starting to believe his own press clippings.
However he did have a bit of a pass to the inner sanctums of Gov’t albeit a short one.
Plank walkers make good informed talkers, (with a wee bit more motivation).
Time will tell if the latest batch of Garth-brand predictions comes to pass
January 8th, 2009 at 12:18 pm
Post # 139
QUOTE:
In the 80’s (82/83 especially) you could fire a cannon dow Robson St., there were so many stores closed and papered over. Don’t be surprised for that trend to continue.
I would also pay close attention to the ethnic communities whose economic base has become solely reliant on construction and transpo. The Walmart in Queensboro for example could esily be gone by 2010, 90% of the clientele is Indo CDN.
========================================
Re Robson Street:
I agree. They tried to turn that place into a high end Rodeo Drive clone….rents were outrageous in good times an dmany couldn’t make a go of it. Keep the newspapers and plywood handy, could get ugly.
Speaking of cannons…Maybe they could put the Nine O’clock gun there in a few years.
ALSO:
Interesting article in paper how once vibrant Vancouver Punjabi area(Fraser Main etc. )is slowly dying. Many people and businesses have moved/economically displaced to Surrey.
Fser street was once a vibrant area for European immigrants as well.
Wal Mart in Queensborough possibly close?? Interesting .
Richmonds proposed Wal Mart seems to have have faded away, no news on it, and it does attract a lot of Richmond shoppers. What about South Vancouvers proposed Wal Mart? A lot of South Asians lived there as well.
However, insiteful comment re the ethnic groups and reliance on construction and transpo. The South Asians are heavily represented in SFH construction , Truck Drivng overall ,….Dump Trucks for construction etc. I am wondering how they will do. All I see now are a few projects that are being finished, but not started.
January 8th, 2009 at 12:15 pm
First of all there some excellent traditional American recipies for squirrel.
That being said Darth Squirrel if pretty far off the reservation. He strikes me as being a little high on his own success in predicting the housing decline (it’s way too early to call it a crash).
Things aren’t going to be great, there’s no getting around that. But Garth’s a little too far off the reservation for my taste.
Make no mistake, things will get rough. Housing prices will drop dramatically.
Things will get rough, no doubt about it, but in bad times people adjust. many houses are large enough so a couple of people can live in ‘em comfortably. I wouldn’t try that in a Yaletown shoebox but there’s a lot of room for efficiency in the ‘burbs (couple of families living in one home, carpooling, etc).
You can eat very, very well on very, very little money. I have friends who eat like kings on a fraction of what most people spend. Green leafy things are relatively cheap. Legumes are cheap. Most spices are cheap. Squashes are cheap. Peasant foods are among the best, if you know how to make them.
People will adjust as they always have. Being prepared for bad times is fine.
Garth, on the other hand has become convinced he’s infallible and now he’s just being stupid.
January 8th, 2009 at 12:14 pm
NO -LYMPICS:
Well, I don’t really know what to say. I’m not sure what would happen if the price to sell stock options was lowered. Does this mean that the pension plan would sell it’s own stocks this way or some that it owns or what? The article doesn’t really explain the issue, which is a typical problem with journalists. They skate around on the top without really getting to the meat of the issue. I always had trouble following the news as a teenager and now I realize it’s just because the journalists don’t often know what they are talking about so can’t really explain it properly. Sigh.
January 8th, 2009 at 11:56 am
asalvari: What are you talking about now?
January 8th, 2009 at 11:54 am
Speak of the Devil:
Public service pensions:
Don’t reprice stock options: Teachers
http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....y/Business
QUOTE:
TORONTO — One of Canada’s biggest pension funds is urging companies not to reprice stock options or change other types of equity-based compensation to make up for the drubbing their share prices may have taken in the global meltdown of financial markets.
Instead, executives should share the pain with their shareholders, who do not have access to such techniques, the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan said Thursday, as, in advance of annual meeting season, corporate Canada gears up to begin disclosing how much top company officials were paid for their labours in 2008.
If you read the “Comments” section of this article , and just as I had suspected, a lot of angry people.
My view is that the Teachers pensions in Ontario actively decided to invest in the markets. That is a Risk versus Reward scenario they knew going in. They are being pre-emptive in telling THEIR employees (ie Executives of companies they have invested in ) how to deal with such things as options etc.
Hypocrisy !!!:
Many of these teacher groups have no problem signing fat contracts with generous wage increases and class size limits…etc. that the taxpayer is obligated to support… even if these same taxpayers themselves are exposed to major job uncertainty versus job security. They are, in essence, using taxpayer funds to invest in the markets .
Love it or hate it, this option and other forms of compensation issue is an accepted way of doing business.
Are the teachers willing to tighten their own belts?…they shouldn’t have it BOTH ways.
Now many of these Teachers groups are notorious for literally holding students hostages, holding illegal strikes like we had in BC, and getting Gov’ts to fold like a cheap tent and capitulate to their deamnds . They claim ad- nauseum “its for the students”, but the old “greenback poultice” ie Filthy Lucre ie MONEY $$$$$ always seems to shut them up.
I read an article yesterday that across Canda, school enrollment is declining big time, a major demographic shift.
Teachers will be surplus…I can foresee layoffs…and they best engage in well thought out Public Relations campaigns…or the public can and will turn against them and their feelings of entitlement.
Again back to my earlier comment about a potential backlash by the General Public against Civil Servants , which will be their own fault with such ill – advised moves.
January 8th, 2009 at 11:50 am
Anonymous:
Oh, You got them vitamins, no?
January 8th, 2009 at 11:28 am
asalvari:
Just click on the back button when you are done reading the referenced posting and you are back to where you were.
The back button is the green < arrow at the top left of your web-browser.
January 8th, 2009 at 11:26 am
Anonymous:
Yes, I am aware that the name is liked to the post, but if you click you would move around a bit more then you may want to – at least I prefer not to jump around.