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January 8th, 2009 at 11:23 am
NO -LYMPICS:
January 8th, 2009 at 11:19 am
C’mon Lily Pad.
You strike me as very intelligent
(or what are they teaching you in school these days…oops now I am dating myself).
Think ……T-h-i-n-k ……THINK !
WHAT do squirrels eat?
Squirrels are vegetarians, right ?
SOLUTION:
Find their hiding spot BEFORE Garth shoots them.
January 8th, 2009 at 11:09 am
realpaul:
Don’t worry, thanks to global warming we will soon have the Canada Canal.
January 8th, 2009 at 11:08 am
realpaul: NO -LYMPICS:
What I would like to know is what vegetarians are supposed to do when the crunch hits? Do they have to eat squirrels, too? Eeuuww.
January 8th, 2009 at 11:06 am
realpaul:
No…. Spain was exactly like Canada:
They had Franco and we had Trudeau-sky.
January 8th, 2009 at 11:04 am
Darth the squirrel eater ?
I love all God’s creatures, right next to the mashed potatoes !!!! (and with a side dish of fava beans and chianti )
Bad Taste ? Moi? …..but you watched it to the end , right ….even the out takes LOL.
(Actually someone sent it to me this morning…then I saw the VCI porn bailout discussion…how timely ! ).
Now back to the ” porn -of -condo -as -a -good -investment ”
Cheers ….and happy squirrel hunting
( PS there is too many of them anyway, like realturds ..but don’t mix them up though. One tastes much less bitter than the other ).
January 8th, 2009 at 10:57 am
realpaul:
I FORGOT TO MENTION A HEAVY RELIANCE ON TOURISM
January 8th, 2009 at 10:55 am
Spain has a smaller but similar economy to Canada, construction, immigration, service industry, small tech, small manuf, small pop, big government, approx similar stats on union parasitism, pensions, social spending, etc. I follow it because it does not report in US dollar comps so it doesn’t get stuck in the N.AM spin.
http://www.baltimoresun.com/bu.....7107.story
January 8th, 2009 at 10:51 am
Re Pensions:
I have read a few times that Private Sector pensions have been used by companies as ” banks ” …..or that they are free to use or even take back any surpluses beyond their obligations. This could get interesting if these have been dipped into and depleted aka how secure ARE they?.
Even within Unions…union officials have been known to dip into funds inappropriately ,leaving their member high and dry with reduced pensions . I met a bricklayer that had to UNretire and go back to work because a union official got sticky fingers.
However, in the Public Sector Pensions ,
I have been told that Gov’t uses these Civil Service Pension Funds as a “bank” for many Gov’t ventures,ie public infrastructure etc. If this is true, and the sh*t hits the fan with Gov’t economic projections all shot , and with liabilities that have to be covered, then the taxpayer is even more on the hook to cover these pension funds and any losses as well, over and above all the OTHER ones that may loom .
January 8th, 2009 at 10:50 am
NO -LYMPICS:
Nolympics, sorry cannot open that kind of material at work. I’ll watch it tonight.
Regards
arit
January 8th, 2009 at 10:39 am
NO -LYMPICS:
And you don’t think quoting Darth Squirrel-eater is scraping the bottom of the barrel?
(Your video is in bad taste.)
January 8th, 2009 at 10:34 am
Appaerntly 131% of debt per dollar of disposable income is just too much. Bankruptcies soar.
http://www.globeinvestor.com/s.....8/GIStory/
In the 80′s (82/83 especially) you could fire a cannon dow Robson St., there were so many stores closed and papered over. Don’t be surprised for that trend to continue.
I would also pay close attention to the ethnic communities whose economic base has become solely reliant on construction and transpo. The Walmart in Queensboro for example could esily be gone by 2010, 90% of the clientele is Indo CDN.
January 8th, 2009 at 10:32 am
Lily Pad, Arit , Anonymous.
Great discussions (aka scraping the bottom of the barrel)
No Soup For You.
Instead….”and now for something completely different”
Enjoy !
Catchy tune I recall from my childhood.
( Also , this looks like it was filmed in Vancouver…notice the scenery )
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tm9UklULTjo
January 8th, 2009 at 10:30 am
arit:
I’ve heard the union reps claim that the corporations spent the pension money during the boom times when people are less interested in scrutinizing financial spending and now the old folks need the money and it isn’t there. Can you imagine working for a company for x number of years thinking that you are contributing to a pension plan and then when you are retired they say the money is not there in a trust fund where it’s supposed to be? I would be so depressed. Apparently there are investigations into this now because it is illegal to take money from a trust fund and spend it. This is what I heard on BNN.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/.....Apr18.html
January 8th, 2009 at 10:23 am
Lily pad:
Well, I looked into that before, and as far as I am concerned, it is another Ponzi scheme. If the current employees need to work for their own salaries AND their veterans, where did the money that the veterans made go?
Bailout for Ponzi schemes. Great.
By the way, the US social security and medical care system are the same. How come the present generation needs to pay for the previous gen retirement? The answer is simple, the prev gen spent all the money and now are leeching of the new ‘investors’.
Everything in the US economy is a Ponzi scheme. The whole enchilada. I ‘predict’ 2009 will be ‘Year of the Suicide’. Can we short suicides?
Regards
arit
January 8th, 2009 at 10:21 am
If you haven’t heard, Garth Turner has a new book out titled ” AFTER THE CRASH”
Garth Turner, whose 2008 best-seller “Greater Fool” correctly forecast the current residential real estate meltdown, now says “doing nothing is no longer an option” for families facing a crumbling economy. His latest book, “After the Crash: How to Guard your Money in Turbulent Times.” explains why the money contagion now sweeping the world will affect everyone, and could devastate those who fail to get ready.
Among the potential consequences:
• Big new drops in house prices.
• Neighbourhood food shortages.
• Fewer government services. More electricity outages
• Trouble for the Vancouver Olympics.
• A pension crisis.
• Cancellation of some credit cards.
• Empty Big Box stores.
• Despair and debt in the suburbs.
• Firewood at $300 a cord.
• Even a loss of confidence in a Canadian bank.
Turner says any of these – or all of them – are possible over the next two years or more, after the crash of the biggest bubble economy in history. Even a concerted effort by governments around the world, zero interest rates and trillions in new spending may be unable to prevent a deflationary spiral which will cost millions of jobs, drop real estate values in Albertan oil country by half, indebt governments and see more Boomers become Wal-Mart greeters, he says.
=========================================
Trouble for Vancouver Olympics?
How could there not be?
I am just wondering what spins and duct tape they have brewing in the backrooms.
Pension crisis?
Better believe it.
How many people were “planning” in retiremtn by selling their “Million Dollar homes” and relying on their stock market portfolios.
A LOT !!!!
Empty Big Box Stores?
I remember the good old days of department stores.When these Category Killers came in, they effectively kiiled off stores like Woodwards, Eatons etc. We lost a Vancouver classic ie A & B Sound.
However, these Big Box stores have sprung up like weeds. However, I can’t see them lasting in a collapsing economy. They must have have huge overhead. Their business plan must rely on lots of turnover supported by lots of credit. ie ” Don’t pay now till 2010 “! If their own suppliers are cutting back…the writing is one wall. Many of them will become dinosuars like the department stores they displaced / replaced. Ma and Pa businesses may make a big comeback.
Firewood at $300 cord
I don’t know if Garth is trying to be funny? but maybe he isn’t. I know that people do panic when heating costs rise,and switch to firewood, but it’s the same difference when they lose jobs and have to cut costs. Hope the environMENTALists have some sympathy for people who have to resort to this for cooking and heating needs.
Fewer Government services.
I know Campbell and Local Gov’ts bought a lot of labour peace in the Civil Service to carry through past 2010 Olympics.
However, then it will get interesting. Contracts will come up soon after.
Then the citizens are caught up in usual threats of :Cuts in Services ? OR Higher Taxes?
If people can’t pay increased taxes…maybe its time these civil servants faced the REAL world say like airline employees. Accept a freeze of rollback….or there will be layoffs. Otherwise , I sense there may be a major revolt by the increasingly number of unemployed who will resent these literal “Job for Life” civil servant types feeling more deserving of entitlement than even an auto worker.
January 8th, 2009 at 10:16 am
asalvari: You don’t need the number, just click on the name. Who cares what the number is?
January 8th, 2009 at 10:14 am
asalvari@132:
this format would be nice, but difficult to implement.
January 8th, 2009 at 10:12 am
Anonymous:
I think because it does not add the number next to the name, so you have no idea which message the reply is addressing.
January 8th, 2009 at 9:59 am
arit:
Does the porn industry take care of their old folks like this?
http://www.autoblog.com/2008/1.....-hour-try/
January 8th, 2009 at 9:52 am
NO -LYMPICS: Hey, why aren’t you using the new feature?
January 8th, 2009 at 9:47 am
Post # 117
QUOTE:
I guess I should point out why China’s debt purchases are relevant to real estate, for anyone who has been living under a rock lately:
“China’s voracious demand for American bonds has helped keep interest rates low for borrowers ranging from the federal government to home buyers. Reduced Chinese enthusiasm for buying American bonds will reduce this dampening effect.”
=======================================
Good point.
Its this type of info that creates clarity in the Big Picture view of what is going on.
I heard on the news that Mining company Teck – Cominco is laying off about 13% of its workforce. Demand for Coal is down, much of this is due to the slowdown in China. Also more layoffs in the Forest Industry on Vancouver Island.
I am curious if many companies had these layoffs planned for weeks, they simply didn’t want to spoil Xmas for their employees. Maybe the layoff floodgates will begin to open now.
January 8th, 2009 at 9:44 am
I poke my head in from time to time. The problem is there’s very little good debate going on any more.
The war is over, only a few half starved Japanese soldiers on deserted islands are still trying to fight.
January 8th, 2009 at 9:06 am
This blog is boring without Drachen and Gadwin. Hey you two, if you are out there, what are you up to? Did you buy something? We miss you.
January 8th, 2009 at 9:03 am
Thank you Mr bear, indeed.
My point was that GM deserves no more bailout than the ‘adult’, but maybe my point wasn’t clear enough…
Regards
arit
January 8th, 2009 at 8:45 am
Anonymous: I’m pretty sure arit gets the joke. It’s about as subtle as Benny Hill.
January 8th, 2009 at 8:27 am
arit: Lighten up, dude!
January 8th, 2009 at 8:25 am
arit: Because it’s a joke.
January 8th, 2009 at 8:11 am
Why tongue in cheek?
The adult entertainment industry provides a solid product that users really like. The US auto industry provides crap cars that nobody likes.
The adult entertainment industry employs the best of the best in the field (I am serious). The car industry pays 73/hr for having employees do nothing.
I say: If GM deserves bailout, “Pyramid” et all deserve it more.
Regards
arit
January 8th, 2009 at 7:59 am
Said with tongue in cheek:)
http://www.foxbusiness.com/sto.....s-bailout/
January 8th, 2009 at 6:24 am
arit: Arit, that commission would be 5,600 if they get their price. About 1/2 that of the boom rate. Tighten your belts, folks.
January 7th, 2009 at 11:20 pm
Sweet dreams are made of this
Who am I to disagree?
Travel the world and the seven seas
Everybody’s looking for something
Some of them want to use you
Some of them want to get used by you
Some of them want to abuse you
Some of them want to be abused
(Eurythmics)
————————
REALTOR NEEDED
Assessed property at $240.000, looking to sell immediatley, we want to sell for the above price which is $260.000
We would like to hire a realtor, at a 4% commission rate on the first 100.000 dollars and 1% on the remainder to sell our house.
Please do not contact us if this will not work for you we are not interested in any other arrangments, thank you.
Here are the details for our Condo, which was previously listed on MLS with a realtor for $285.000.
Gorgeous 17th Floor Apartment.
Former 2 Bedroom Apartment Remodeled into 1 bedroom modern open design.
…..
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....31589.html
January 7th, 2009 at 10:40 pm
canadian personal debt up to 131% of disposable income.
http://www.progressive-economi.....t-problem/
January 7th, 2009 at 10:26 pm
I guess I should point out why China’s debt purchases are relevant to real estate, for anyone who has been living under a rock lately:
“China’s voracious demand for American bonds has helped keep interest rates low for borrowers ranging from the federal government to home buyers. Reduced Chinese enthusiasm for buying American bonds will reduce this dampening effect.”
January 7th, 2009 at 10:21 pm
And the next shoe drops – China is losing its appetite for US debt:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01.....r=1&hp
Are these shoes coming off a horse or a centipede?
No matter, I’m going to see if I can buy any gold somewhere.
January 7th, 2009 at 10:18 pm
Anonymous:
http://uk.reuters.com/article/.....7520090108
small buisnesses puking up jobs in dec.
January 7th, 2009 at 9:49 pm
A sign of the times: a surge in filings for unemployment benefits has apparently crashed online application systems in four states this week.
http://www.datacenterknowledge.....web-sites/
January 7th, 2009 at 9:36 pm
The PREVIEW number has an additional 22000 job losses in Dec added to the 70000 lost in Nov.
These numbers are only preliminary, the real numbers are probably much worse. The Preview numbers for Nov were 15000 and wound up at 70000.
http://www.fxstreet.com/news/f.....3fd1d6f66d
January 7th, 2009 at 8:05 pm
Sorry i am into Houses not Condos, why the obsession with Condos. You continue to include housing data.
January 7th, 2009 at 6:22 pm
The new spin from Phil Soper and Co. is that the economic news is keeping buyers away, I guess the implication is that as soon as economic conditions improve, (2nd half of 2009), the buyers will be back to set new price and past sales levels, so hurry while you can.
Couple of things wrong Peddler Soper’s spin, the economy in 2009 may get worse, and the shyster is implying buyers have been buying based on economics.
The truth is the past buyers did not use calculators, so why would they start now. I think we have finally run out of greater fools.
January 7th, 2009 at 5:24 pm
Sorry ….try again
http://www.visoa.bc.ca/static/.....stics2.pdf
January 7th, 2009 at 5:23 pm
Link re: Strata ownership in BC ( Dec. 31, 2007 )
BC Assessment data
http://www.visoa.bc.ca/static/Strata%20Ownership%
20Statistics2.pdf
January 7th, 2009 at 5:15 pm
John,
Follow the link through #86.
January 7th, 2009 at 5:07 pm
Hey John:
On the news they said that luxury SUV makers will provide purchasers with a free car as a bonus (value of about $12,000.)
Seriously.
They will even take it back if you get laid off.
January 7th, 2009 at 4:48 pm
Thankfully condos remain unaffected since rich asians love condos and not houses. Everyone I know who owns a condo is up big time and so am I. I’m just thankful I didn’t waste money on rent all these years.
January 7th, 2009 at 4:47 pm
“We wake up in the morning wondering if we’re going to have a home in six months,” said Sheila. “We don’t know how we’re going to do it.”
Poor construction in the leaky condo era allowed water to seep into the structure of the building. …
The pressure has some owners turning on each other. Just Saturday night, the police had to be called because of an altercation between owners, said Luke Tutty.
Owners have to have the cash by Christmas — although the Tutties are not sure how they’re going to come up with it.
“It’s just a really tough time for people in this building,” said Luke Tutty. ”
http://www.ctvbc.ctv.ca/servle.....lumbiaHome
You wonder how builders of such crap can look themselves in the mirror in the morning without puking.
January 7th, 2009 at 4:17 pm
NumbersRCool: Why the rush to buy? The bottom of the market won’t be in for at least 2 more years. Prices have only declined 15% or so from the peak. If you look at past cycles, the peak to valley is usually about 3-4 years. If I were you, I’d wait until 2011 and buy at 30% off today’s prices.
January 7th, 2009 at 3:44 pm
arit:
Arit, sq footage is one measurement as per the ‘footprint’ you referance. There is also TSCR – total site coverage ratio which when aligned with the front,side, rear setbacks as per zoning will also define ‘footprint’.
An example is the ‘wedding cake’ or ‘McMansion’ design of many newer res devs in vanc. In order to maximize sq footage the base will be maximized to the detriment of the upper floor(s). the upper floors look ‘chopped’ because the TSCR does not allow additional sq.footage. The predessor ( the Monster house) was a series of design that were dictated by the by laws of the time.
So a lot depends on lot size and zoning as you see. The Monster houses so many people refer to were a result of the market driving design. The economic neccesity of eliminating decadent space by maximizing sq. footage as per the allowable TSCR.
It wasn’t a Chinese thing ( the Monster House ) to begin with, they knew nothing of our by-laws, they just got stuck with the product and were subsequently branded as exploiters by the neighbours who were living in 1940′s bungalows in those areas west of Ontario st..
It came about that the new Chinese immigrants , particularily from HK are lemming like and they all wanted the same thing once we got the ball rolling. So we got the cookie cutter out and fed them all they could swallow.
January 7th, 2009 at 3:37 pm
Re: Bob Rennie and creating affordable housing:
He already has..what goes around comes around.
He obviously hasn’t heard of how DeBeers works.
He and his RE ilk fuelled wreckless speculation with abandon.
They likely lobbied the Feds to go the 0/40 route.
They flooded the market.
When the dust settles after the crash, and the bodies removed, housing will be more affordable than it ever will be, if you define affordability as the RE prices drop.
Only kicker is the unemployment rate.
THE basic fundamentals of supply and demand will kick in…just like the law of gravity.
Rennie sounds typical of these get rich quick types…make their fortune THEN find religion “giving back to the community”. What’s the ratio of how much did they take on the way up versus what they give back looking down .
January 7th, 2009 at 3:18 pm
Hey YLTNboomerang
Your excel spreadsheets along with the charts and graphs on this awesome blog are the first things to excite us in a long time. Thank you!
http://vancouvercondo.info/200.....cking.html
We would really appreciate another excel spreed for the rest of 2008 or be educated on how to get this data ourselves.
My wife and I are finally feeling it is time to explore buying a townhouse downtown. We are both stable, mid-30ish, very bearish professionals who work and live (rent cheap, but nice) downtown. Our incomes are high enough that we could have bought in the foolish folly, but we have chosen to continue investing in other safer stuff than overpriced boxes in Vancouver over the past 5 years.
I have owned 2 detached homes in 2 other less expensive markets. What we do not like about Canadian RE is that the key information (numbers) are so hard to come by w/o a realtor, and even then its not really all the good stuff.
We appreciate you for helping give us hope and financial facts with your information. Numbers never lie.