Friday Free-for-all!
It’s open topic and news round up time! Here are a few stories I’ve noticed as we shift into 2009:
-Metro Vancouver home equity takes a huge hit
-Worse numbers to come
-2008: What a year that was!
-TSX loses 35% in dismal year
-Hiring climate in Vancouver area turns chilly
-Forest sector loses $230 million in 3rd quarter
-Electronic Arts: Job cuts to 10% of work force
-A quarter century of ‘leaky condo’ crisis
-Falling Canadian house prices still better than USA
-Best prediction of 2008: Garth Turner on real estate
-Five tips to keep your credit healthy in 2009
So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have a great weekend and a Happy New Year!
RSS 2.0 comments feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
1
X
JollyJoker Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 12:00 am
I’m #1 of the NEW YEAR!!! I’m gonna make millions from the stock market and then buy all these condos that will be another 50 percent cheaper in 2010. Wish me luck with my stock market success!! peace out
2
X
take care Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 12:29 am
I don’t understand why freako argues with the vested type who are either flippers, slumlords, mortgage brokers and leveraged up to their necks.
These people have little knowledge to offer to others, but are shrewd to garner information from the smarter intelligent bulls.
Learn to read who are NOT your friends. I’ll advise only my enemies to buy RE in 2006-2008, or goad them towards call & put options.
It may be time to quietly work with a realtor you can trust now like Exx and Jeff. It could be months or even a few years before you find what you want and at 2004 prices.
3
X
Anon Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 1:01 am
Thank you for your work and for keeping this site going, looking forward to its continued availability in 2009! Thanks!
4
X
Matt Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 1:06 am
How much do you guys think Vancouver property taxes will be going up this year?
Check out the hiring cancellations at the City of Vancouver. I don’t think property taxes will be going down anytime soon.:
http://vancouver.ca/humanresources/jobs/index.htm
5
X
Anon Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 1:09 am
Regarding Mr. Turner, I found his latest twist to have gone too far. One thing is to publish books, but selling stuff is something else. Check out his new online store- http://www.xurbia.ca/
Even more surprising to me was how people eat it up- very few of the comments in response to his announcement reflect that people realize how wrong this is… Of course this statistic might be biased by the fact that his site is censored and not all comments make it through.
6
X
Anon Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 1:23 am
Obviously the future is certain – it will be somewhere between a total disaster and a great economic recovery, as per these articles.
One says “But those ugly number are, thankfully, last year’s news. For 2009, experts see economic conditions improving in the second half of this year” and the other says “The worst numbers for the Canadian economy are yet to come and “Never before, in December, have we been so pessimistic regarding economic growth for the upcoming year”.
7
X
Steevee Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 2:50 am
#5,
I have to agree regarding Garth’s new online store. Escept for donations to keep their sites going, most of the blogs I read that deal with emergency/survival preparation are simply providing advice and not trying to make a buck off the back of their readers by selling them items they recommend. Honestly, I know we all have to make a living but I can’t help but lose a little respect for Mr. Turner in this case. I mean, really, how different is this than a realtor trying to pump up real estate then sell you a house?
8
X
Supraboy Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 9:17 am
Jollyjoker, I’m doing the same thing. Markets tend to be 6-12 months forward looking, by the time we hit September, condos in vancouver will be dirt cheap, right at the bottom, and stock markets will be flying high.
9
X
NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 9:28 am
Prediction:
Vancouver will be a disaster.
Watch it closely….Gregor and his leftie crew have no wriggle room…they are party to the books and the projections .
They are caught between a rock and a hard place, won’t be able to afford their left wing ideas , and may be forced to adopt very conservative fiscal policies(which will make them feel absolutely sick). Left Wing Gov’ts can sometimes be more brutal in cost -cutting than others.
Across the board,in a non- partisan sense… the Public will have no patience for increased taxes…they will see what has happened to date as bad management and will be primed for revolt!
Buy diapers in bulk …ALL levels of Gov’t !
Vancouver developers must be cringing right now trying to sell their own over – supply of condo product, yet up against the Olympic Village which HAS to, I repeat HAS to finish by Fall 2009. If it is Gov’t owned, it often bypasses normal market rules and market forces, and Vancouver will do something “goofy” , rest assured, that will have ripple effects in the market.
I think it is just a matter of time before Vancouver’s partner “Millenium” folds. The Olympic contracts generally obligate the host City ie the City’s own citizens to any/all cost shortfalls or overrruns, citizen= “Banker of last resort”.
They will either
(i) blow the condos out and piss of competing developers….or
(ii)rent them out (and compete with landlords elsewhere )
The developers should have seen this coming.
However, this seems to be a Global phenomenon in Olympic host cities…Olympic villages seem to be a bad idea for the local community . Britain is already cringing at their “Olympic village” cost overruns and their Olympics is still 4 years away.
Holiday Season is over..watch each and every move by all Gov’ts now, and watch them sweat and cringe as they try desperately to put on a brave face.
Unfortunately It will be quite painful for the rest of us to watch .
10
X
vancouverboom2 Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 9:32 am
By Eric BeauchesneDecember 31, 2008
OTTAWA — If you thought this past year was rough, economists say you ain’t seen nothing yet.
“Never before, in December, have we been so pessimistic regarding economic growth for the upcoming year,” says Dale Orr, chief economist at Global Insight, which is forecasting that the Canadian economy will contract by 0.4 per cent in 2009.
11
X
NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 9:50 am
So posts #1 and #8
What are you going to do with the 1/2 price condos you anticipate buying ?
I can sell you a Pet Rock at 50 -70 % off.
12
X
Anonymous Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 9:50 am
#10 Creat your own handle stop using some one else’s.
13
X
Drachen Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 9:59 am
take care
“It could be months or even a few years before you find what you want and at 2004 prices.”
2004 prices are for chumps. It was already a bubble in 2004.
And, who has ‘enemies’ after high school? Honestly, do well adjusted adults have ‘enemies’?
Anon
“this statistic might be biased by the fact that his site is censored and not all comments make it through.”
He’s not joe average who can afford to shrug and point out that it wasn’t his words. If there’s a potentially offensive comment it could affect him and his party politically and he can’t take that risk.
NO LYMPICS
“They are caught between a rock and a hard place, won’t be able to afford their left wing ideas , and may be forced to adopt very conservative fiscal policies(which will make them feel absolutely sick). Left Wing Gov’ts can sometimes be more brutal in cost -cutting than others.”
Actually studies have shown that liberal governments tend to spend less AND tax less than conservative ones. The economy does better as well. The studies that I saw were comparing Republicans and Democrats but I think it shows how shallow and clueless the blind rhetoric you spew is. You should get a job at Faux News.
14
X
NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 10:03 am
Supraboy
Which is it ?
Yesterday you said :
QUOTE:
86 Supraboy Says:
January 1st, 2009 at 11:53 pm
” I was out at a Chinese restaurant tonight. Oh boy, was it ever packed. I looked around, ordered a Tsingtao beer and felt like a poor man compared to everyone else’s table. They were ordering bottles of red wine. If you people think the Vancouver housing market is going down, you better think again. If the economy is really that bad, why are the Chinese people packed with people with money. I have a feeling that the real estate market going down is only a myth. I open up the Chinese real estate newspapers and I see the majority of houses in Vancouver listed for over a million. Even crappy Vancouver specials in Marpole are listed over a million, and they’re at least 10 years old too! They won’t sell for anything less and they have lots of cash to hold out for a very long time .
The Olympics will give the condo market a boost as people will be scrambling for rental units.”
However, TODAY you said
QUOTE:
8 Supraboy Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 9:17 am
” Jollyjoker, I’m doing the same thing. Markets tend to be 6-12 months forward looking, by the time we hit September, condos in vancouver will be dirt cheap, right at the bottom, and stock markets will be flying high.”
==================================================
Supraboy ….You contradict yourself.
(How many Tsingtao beer did you have ? )
Many posters here look up to you and hang onto your every word,so don’t disappoint them !
PS
Remember to turn on your Borat /Chinglish Translator program….your Engrish is to too very goodness to be truthing in the 2nd post
15
X
NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 10:30 am
Drachen:
I said ” can somtimes “.
I also said ” Left Wing “, not liberal.
” Left Wing” can often be more definitive at the Local Gov’t and Provincial level…at the Federal level it can be less clear and more ambiguous. The Federal Lieberals were good at this political androgeny , straddling the fence and yet increasingly numb to the slivers up their ying yang
Gregor and crew rode in to victory on a protest vote, most likely due to the Millenium deal expose’.
Lots of new faces on Vancouver council. Left Wingers in power during bad times is a fascinating scenario. In all fairness, we should give them the benefit of the doubt in the short term ,as who knows what rabbits they ” may ” pull out of the hat ?
Otherwise:
You seem to have an idealogue myopia for deeming people as either Republican or Democrat.
—Do you still use black and white polaroid film ?
—Is Barney “what, me worry ? ” Frank a hero to you ?
BTW: This is Canada…if you don’t believe me, check your Count Chocula cereal box and see it there is more than one language on the outside and if the word “color” is spelled “colour”.
Let me guess…you voted for the McCain/Palin ticket , right ? ….eerrrrr I mean ” correct ” ?
16
X
arit Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 10:37 am
I got this by email today…..
——————————–
Vancouver Weather in the News
Chilled Vancouver commuters faced their second day of winter hell today, as an additional ¼ centimetre of the peculiar white stuff fell, bringing the lower mainland to its knees and causing millions of dollars worth of damage to the marijuana crops.
Scientists suspect that the substance is some form of frozen water particles and experts from Saskatchewan are being flown in.
With temperatures dipping to almost but not quite near-zero mark, Vancouverites were warned to double insulate their lattes before venturing out.
Vancouver police recommended that people stay inside except for emergencies, such as running out of espresso or biscotti to see them through Vancouver’s most terrible storm to date.
The local Canadian Tire reported that they had completely sold out of fur-lined sandals.
Drivers were cautioned to put their convertible tops up, and several have been shocked to learn that their SUVs actually have four wheel drive, although most have no idea how to use it.
Weary commuters faced soggy sushi, and the threat of frozen breast implants. Although Dr. John Blatherwick, of the Coastal Health Authority reassured everyone that most breast implants were perfectly safe to 25 below, down-filled bras are flying off the shelves at Mountain Equipment Co-op.
“The government has to do something,” snarled an angry Trevor Warburton. “I didn’t pay $540,000 for my one bedroom condo so I could sit around and be treated like someone from Toronto.”
———————————
Regards
arit
17
X
MrBear Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 10:55 am
#5 & #7; Please explain to me what exactly is wrong with selling something? Do you grimace at every store you pass as you walk down the street? Is amazon.com some sort of offense against your morality? Is someone being forced to shop at Garth’s new site? Really, who the heck cares?
18
X
Anon Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 10:57 am
Steevee, it’s not just about making a buck, it is about what he is trying to make a buck on. When Mr. Turner sells his books he is making a buck for the added value that he has provided in collecting information, analyzing it, summarizing it, packaging and presenting it. Regarding Xurbia he claims the added value by researching all these topics like generators, etc. This is a lame explanation though because even though certain research is required for an average person to pick the right generator or to figure out how to pick seeds, this research would have been better summarized in a book or an online site, not in a store. There is no way that Mr. Turner can provide Internet’s best price for generators or the best local service for those generators. So as far as the “store” part of this he has no real value add. Generators are much closer to commodity status than information that Mr. Turner used to sell previously.
P.S. I also happen to disagree with the results of Mr. Turner’s research results on these topics. For example he advises use of gas generators and says diesel is not good. You can store diesel for much longer time than gas, diesel has much smaller chances of exploding, and you can actually make it yourself if you have to. If I were picking a 7200 watt generator for continued use (as opposed to occasional battery charging cycles) like Mr. Turner advises I would have seriously considered diesel first.
19
X
Drachen Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 11:00 am
NO LYMPICS
Umm what? Did you just skim what I said or actually read it? Most of your response seems to be completely tangential (to put it nicely) to what I said.
20
X
macchiato Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 11:09 am
NO -LYMPICS, may I suggest that supraboy be ignored. He’s trolling or he’s an idiot, either way he’s not worth the time. Anyone that says the RE market going down is a myth, at this point, is clearly talking BS.
21
X
Anon Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 11:25 am
MrBear #17, the difference between Xurbia and Amazon does not exist when these two stores are looked at separately from greaterfool.ca and Garth’s other information assets. However when the other assets are taken into account the issue becomes in expectation management. When you go to Amazon you expect a store. When you go to greaterfool.ca you expect an independent opinion from a man who has made a name for himself. The issue here is that Xurbia is not an independent site as it would have been perceived if Mr. Turner did not disclose his affiliation with it. Xurbia is the same site as greaterfool.ca. That’s what’s wrong with it- the new site undermines credibility of the old site.
22
X
NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 11:26 am
Drachen:
No, obviously you didn’t read my response.
Skim….? skim what? “Sour milk” ?
It seems you have the same type of ” labelling ” responses, both your current post and previous posts , no sense discussing it further.
Stick to your other posts, they are somewhat more informative.
We’ll agree to disagree on the rest.
23
X
NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 11:34 am
On the lighter side..
Too Frikkin funny !!!
NY Times story
” Skaters Jump In as Foreclosures Drain the Pool ”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/29/us/29pools.html
Question: Who is liable for injury ?
Answer: Whoever owns the papers !
Banks to get sued ?
Require more bailouts ?
24
X
realpaul Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 11:34 am
#8 no lympics, great insight dude. U Rok. Tax revenues are going to be squeezed hard. They are not going to be able to start dumping their flakey hangers on without political blowback. Dumping the Millenium project in a dutch auction will be seen as politically correct.
But, I wouldn’t put it past them to increase the number of social housing units in the project as a rationale of appeasement. It’s going to be very hard to sell the huge financial loss to the public any way you slice it. But, with that many bums and thugs roaming the hallways who’s going to want to buy/live there? Building Tomorrows Ghettos Today!! LOL I see the Millenium project in 2012 as Vancouvers prettiest crack house.
25
X
realpaul Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 11:37 am
Sorry no lympics thats comment for your #9
26
X
NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 11:46 am
# 20 macchiato:
No problem.
I think the majority of VCI posters can sense a troll a mile away. Some trolls are amusing , intentional or otherwise.
( Sometimes, it’s just good sport to spar with them ).
27
X
NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 1:06 pm
Surplus Condos – 2 – social housing ?
The Provincial Gov’t bought up a bunch of Vancouver SRO’s, didn’t they ? Aren’t the supposed to turn them into social housing ?
In light of this, why did Vancouver even consider social housing at the Olympic Village?…This is not the jurisdiction of Local Gov’ts , nor should they accept nor encourage this social service type of download . This simply creates compromising precedent, the responsibility should backwash to higher levels of Gov’t .
In light of the looming surplus of NON- social (ie market)housing units, IS it a good idea to change the plan and convert new condos into social housing ? Sorry, but human nature is quite NIMBY-ish….Social Housing is usually ALL or NONE…somewhat segregated, not a “part___” or “some ” ( nice ring to it eh? ). In other words, will some Hi Rise towers nearing completion be bought at some “fire sale” by some level of Gov’t and made into social housing?
Granite countertops , sub zero fridges, hardwood floors etc. etc. for social housing……I kinda doubt it( but then again Gov’t never ceases to amaze).
If one rents, whether it be social housing or market housing, there is less attachment,and requires higher maintenance. Wear and Tear accelerates.
The funny thing re Real Estate like condos is that its not like groceries with limited shelf life. They don’t get tossed out and recycled. Condos and houses tend to last for decades, but they are meant for “homo sapiens”. These will need warm bodies, being vacant is never really a good thing. I doubt the specuvestors will hold on much longer. So…WHO will live in them? , ….WHAT definable demographic group?
Also, if they convert to social housing, wouldn’t Local Gov’t lose property tax revenue ?
Again, way too much downside for Gov’t to snap these surplus condos up, they may even get whacked by another wave of leaky condos and be left holding the bag(how ironic !)
ALSO:
Some VCI posters talk about diving in when the condos sell for 1/2 price. IMHO, IF I was interested , I wouldn’t go even near them till the dust settles. So many more and currently unforeseen variables will rear their ugly head and kick in that the truly savvy buyer will need to be aware of.
So….. when spring arrives in a few months …the so called start of the “RE season”, and all the RE Bears come out of hibernation…fasten your seatbelts and place your bets ! ( I’ll watch from the sidelines).
28
X
Vansanity Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 2:03 pm
It’s strictly disillusional: People believing a bottom to this downturn is approaching. It’s not based on anything other than a hunch.
History has shown that busts tend to run twice as long as the booms in real estate. So, are we looking at approximately 16 years or more before we reach another bull market? Time will tell, but I believe so. Sheeple believe in words like “correction”. They don’t understand, nor will they ever fully grasp the reasons behind the run up or the crash. That’s why this is so bloody easy and becoming more fun by the month.
Thanks to the specuvestors, sheeple scared into buying, trolls on this board, wannabe trumplords, realtards, numbered developers etc… for making 2009 a year that I’ll enjoy very much. Your stupidity, greed, lack of foresight and diligence has made me feel superior to you. I digress.
All is not doom and gloom, perhaps I’ll hire Supraboy or krish to trim my hedges some day… ahh, they’d probably f*** it up. Better I do it myself, besides I won’t cost anything.
29
X
Anon Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 2:13 pm
Vansanity, trimming hedges yourself does cost you something- your time. The real difference between hiring somebody and doing it yourself is that the government does not (yet anyways) tax the work that you do yourself for yourself. If you add up payroll taxes that you would have to pay to somebody else plus the payroll taxes you would have to pay on your income which you use to pay for the somebody’s time and for those payroll taxes on that time it comes to some nice savings. For example to pay somebody $1000 net for their time if you use 30% tax rate as an example you would have to commit over $2000 of your pre-tax income. So when you hire Supraboy to trim hedges you will pay government more than you pay Supraboy
30
X
vancouverboom2 Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 2:15 pm
many many bears is save money every month to pay much lower rent for many years is good when now over 3900 more come to downtown vancouver and browntown and then rent go down down down many years vacant they will be and rent $800 they will and never sell for more than 50% off. Attention Bearz time to buy now maybe you buy mine and then me go not bankrupt like poor newcomer to canada that is many low wage workers buy too muchy expensivey condo thinking sell to rich but rich smart to much year 2067 price going up
31
X
NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 2:22 pm
See?
Economic turnaround has started !
Vancouverboom2 hired Supraboy to write post #30.
32
X
NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 2:30 pm
In Todays Vancouver Province
“Tax cheats feel it’s OK ”
High-risk sectors are construction and hospitality
http://www.canada.com/theprovi.....3998c79a05
When times get tough…Gov’ts tend to look everywhere for revenue. In boom times…more of this probably goes on.
PS:
Watch for the audits to get ratcheted – up in certain sectors.
33
X
RJB Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 2:57 pm
Audits won’t only be hitting small businesses. Amateur condo flippers are going to be getting hit hard.
34
X
arit Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 3:23 pm
Greetings,
I feel some may not have completely understood post number 30. As a service to our online community I have a simplified translation to proper English:
Many many Xiong Meige the month is except outside the money which pays lowly rents many years is good, when the present 3900 arrives the downtown Vancouver and browntown then rents along walks down gets down many years vacant they, and will rent them and for surpasses $800 which 50% will not be able to sell inexpensive. Bearz muchy expensivey 2067.
Best regards,
arit
35
X
bdk Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 3:51 pm
I am not being pseudo naive with this question.
How do flippers hide their profits if it’s over $10k?
I was told by a revenue Canada auditor that “fintrack” notifies them whenever there is a deposit of over $10k in the bank.. unless the buyers of said pre sales are paying cash for the “lift”.
Would they be re assesing from ‘06 or ‘07 when people actually bought the scalped, er, assignments?
On another note, two identical units at Shangri La (#3407 and #3007) are on the market but one of them is $150k more than the higher floor.. Even at $429k it makes no sense to own it as the rent will never exceed $1600.
But then again #30 already addressed this, thank you Arit you made me laugh really hard.
36
X
realpaul Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 4:40 pm
#32 I mentioned this same thing to Supraboy on another string an he seemed shocked to learn the Rev Can does spot checks through sub subsectors. They do this with flippers, rental incomes, multiple owners, small contractors etc etc.
REV CAN doubled the number of auditors just last year. They are absolutly vicious.
37
X
Anon Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 4:49 pm
“this statistic might be biased by the fact that his site is censored and not all comments make it through.”
“He’s not joe average who can afford to shrug and point out that it wasn’t his words. If there’s a potentially offensive comment it could affect him and his party politically and he can’t take that risk.”
Drachen, are you saying that statistic is definitely not biased because Mr Turner is not joe average? What’s your point?
Regarding taking risks, I would argue that Mr Generator Joe has taken a significant judgment/reputation risk by announcing this new generator store. His name was a brand that stood for something. Whatever this something was, it was certainly different than “generators”.
By the way, it takes less than 2 minutes to find the same generators sold online at over 25% less than advertised on the new site…
38
X
markx Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 4:54 pm
I was browsing Georgia Straight on NYE. Noticed a few more RE ads compared to last week. One article talked about the glut in “density bank”. Apparently there’s more than a million square feet of downtown density credit in city’s density bank, owned by developers, and valued at $65 per square foot. I wonder when will developers start writing down the values of such “assets”? To be fair, the total value of the density bank is less than 100 million, or the size of Olympic Village bailout. But it might be interesting to watch the market value of such density credits. I can’t see density credit being worth any cash in a down market, when the city is desperate to find any developers to build anything.
39
X
realpaul Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 6:15 pm
Tech jobs falling like flies. Who’s going to buy those condos?
http://www.dmwmedia.com/tags/career/layoffs
Layoffs in BC are snowballing. The economic effect of every one of these high paying job is 3-2 across the economy. no restaruants, boutiques, bars ski chalets, canuck tickets etc etc. hear it? It’s a slow train coming.
40
X
realpaul Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 6:19 pm
And….. if the November numbers were this bad and getting worse what are the December numbers going to look like. Why haven’t the Dec numbers been released yet?????????
http://www.canada.com/vancouve.....9cf4b37cf6
41
X
realpaul Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 6:23 pm
I’ve started to follow the job losses in the tech sector alone. Pick a sector , report on it. The figures are being hidden, there is no one source of information. Put together the situation is gruesome for the techies.
http://www.canada.com/vancouve.....9cf4b37cf6
42
X
realpaul Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 6:24 pm
sorry posted that one twice
43
X
Supraboy Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 6:49 pm
I work in the tech sector and I just got myself a big fat 20% pay raise. I don’t know what this doom and gloom is all about. You guys are nitpicking yourself through news. Just because EA is laying off doesn’t mean the entire IT sector is going down.
I went to Chinatown for lunch, the restaurant is called Phnom Penh, it was packed all the way till late afternoon. I was pissed waiting for a table from 1:30pm to 2pm, then when I was done with lunch, at 3pm, there were still lineups. If you don’t believe me, go check it out.
I took a nice half day off because my supervisor said I can go and enjoy life since the company is making boat loads of money. I also went all in on the markets a few weeks ago buying up tonnes of Chinese stocks and it rocketed this past week. I’m planning to go on margin and make more cash while all you lemmings keep on hoping that the markets will crash.
44
X
realpaul Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 6:57 pm
California analyst says no recovery at least unti 2013
http://www.doctorhousingbubble.....than-2008/
45
X
rubberduckie Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 6:58 pm
scha⋅den⋅freu⋅de
–noun
satisfaction or pleasure felt at someone else’s misfortune.
***
Bring on the wave of audits! My books are clean.
46
X
Anonymous Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 7:37 pm
Do you read anything else than the Sun and the Province? It would be far more interesting if you would pull articles from a wider range of publications.
47
X
NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 8:21 pm
EA fortunes will rise if they make a video game called ” Vancouver Condo Specuvestor” with a narrative voice over featuring Bob Rennie with Helmut Pastrick and Cameron Muir in some superhero role.
Use/ripoff the SIMS concept, maybe include John as the SUV Joker, Supraboy as Robbin’.
Objective/goal is multi -faceted… use Martial Arts skills to get through the gauntlet of Rich Asians at the Condo Pre Sale line-ups. Put the minimum amount down to gain the most condo assignments.
Predict the market peak and flip ASAP.
(NOTE:
—Penalty points for advertising on CraigsList.
—Bonus points for the highest gross total surface area of granite countertops).
Take your earnings(?) and get to Mexico before Revenue Canada audit.
Bladder that can hold the most Coronas wins !!!
48
X
I told you so Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 9:43 pm
I would like to include Bob Reenie’s article on the last BC Business as a topic of discussion for this week. It is one of the few times he actually acknoledges that the bloggers, he refers to as “voices of doom”. exist and tries to discredit them.
I suggest we include each one of his monthly items for discussion in this blogg. Also it would be good if someone updates the quote tracker: Dec 08 “Pay no attention to those voices of doom: buy that first home” “get creative…buy a home with a friend, a mortagage helper, buy a building with 12 friends”…hahahaha…..sorry I oouldnt hold it in.
49
X
I told you so Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 9:44 pm
Sorry here is the link
http://www.bcbusinessonline.ca.....launch-pad
50
X
NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 9:57 pm
Here’s a nice picture of Bob Rennie (with friends)
http://vancouverunrealestate.b.....undup.html
PS I “think” that is Bob on the left, not sure .
51
X
arit Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 10:00 pm
Greetings!
To “I Told You So”:
“I suggest we include each one… ”
“Also it would be good if someone…”
I have a few more:
“Someone replace the guard in the north post”
“Somebody to clean the barracks please”
and
“Whoever is available please go fill the sandbags”
———————–
Insteade, try:
“I, I_Told_You_So, will be posting an article every month in this blog, discussing Bob Rennies’ achievments”
or
“I, I_Told_You_So, have updated the quote tracker…”
How’s that?
It is now a community blog. We all share the burden.
Best regards,
arit
52
X
arit Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 10:04 pm
realpaul,
I am in the tech sector. My company is extremely profitable, one of the biggest in the lower mainland. The company does very, very well.
Unlike Supraboy, I did not get a fat 20% raise. Instead I got:
1. Canceled Christmas party.
2. Hire freeze.
3. No raises this year. Nothing, not even the 3% we take for granted.
Supraboy, are you guys hiring? I want a 20% raise too. I am fluent in all leading programming languages…
Regards,
arit
53
X
NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 10:23 pm
Interesting article on Bob Rennie(from April 2008)
http://www.vanmag.com/Real_Est.....page=0%2C0
==========================================
Poster # 48, thanks for the article.
Translation:
I think Rennie is indicating desperation via his reminiscing of the good old days. If his dad had to start out today, old Bob would be living in a shoebox up the Fraser Valley.
The whole system has been prostituted and bastardized, and Rennie,( a major pimp /beneficiary of the aforementioned ) shows an indicting combination of both ignorance and bad judgement even ” thinking ” what is actually now in PRINT.
Typical Realturd denial, and realizing they ain’t self- fulfilling prophets anymore .
54
X
Anonymous Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 10:25 pm
Supraboy Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 6:49 pm
“I work in the tech sector and I just got myself a big fat 20% pay raise.”
Was it only you in your organization who got the 20% big fat raise?
In today’s market, either you got a big promotion or you were SEVERELY UNDERPAID prior to your big fat pay raise.
55
X
anonymous Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 10:42 pm
Yes, with taxes and interest rates falling there is good reason to think we are near the bottom. Flarety mentioned today he anticipates more federal tax cuts as a stimilus. December numbers are pretty strong considering there was no move up incentive and a series of snow storms. Paulb and Rob C. are gently trying to give hints to this with their recent posts. They are not trying to generate business, i anticipate they care about you guys.
56
X
ulsterman Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 10:49 pm
from Calculated Risk, the Case-Schiller “declines from peak” graph. Interesting to see where Vancouver will fare on a chart like this when all is said and done.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_pMsc.....ct2008.jpg
57
X
browntown Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 10:58 pm
oh yeaaah whats up nutbags! arit start new thread, paulb client of year 2009! my vote for bdk! ha ha yeah
58
X
suguar Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 11:08 pm
I recently posted my Van rental story on another RE blog and I think it is worth posting again…here.
I recently moved here from AB and 3 months into my intense home buying mission, I met a Vancouverite at an open house who introduced me to this and other VAN RE blogs…armed with new information, I decided to rent for Dec 1 but didn’t start my rental search until late Nov. I saw 55+ properties in just a few days (2xbed + 2xbath) in Yaletown, Coal Harbor, Farirview, Kits and maybe one more area…can’t remember now. All but 2 landlords were willing to negotiate on the lease term and the rent. Many of the properties I viewed had been vacant for Nov, many had been vacant October, and several had been since September…just a few that I looked at were currently occupied. Tonight, when I did a scan of Craigslist, more than 1/2 of the properties I had previously viewed in late Nov are still available listed along side of a whole bunch of new ones.
On another note, I am curious as to where Poster #54 works at? I am entrenched in the technology industry and the scenario he/she describes is disparate to my and my colleagues experience…check out TechCruch, a very reputable technology blog from the US..techcrunch.com/layoffs/
59
X
Uncle Jay Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 11:11 pm
Uncle Jay Explains: 2008 Year-end!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TWiXy55OHyY
Happy New Year!
60
X
Supraboy Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 11:32 pm
Arit, which company do you work for? Business Objects? Mckesson? MDA? Isn’t it too bad that you work for a big company, you have to deal with company politics and the big boys up top controlling things. In the company I work for, there are about 30-40 people only. It’s a tight nit group and the execs here actually care about each and every single one of us. I’m a network administrator at a software company. So what programming languages are you good at? We’re a true java shop.
Working for big companies sucks. The tasks are so miniscual. I worked for a big company here before and I can tell you that I did nothing all day, pay was decent and I was constantly daytrading. Good thing is that you can hide under the radar easily. Just keep your mouth shut and be a “yesman” and everyone will be happy.
61
X
Supraboy Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 11:37 pm
About poster #54. I’m a contactor, I was originally making 40/hour. They gave me a raise up to $50/hour. I guess I was severely underpaid. It sucked, at $40/hour, I had to think twice about purchasing marvel diecast figures and whether I should go with Cohiba cigars or stick with monte cristo. Now at $50/hour, I can shop at will. I just went to imperial hobbies on Boxing Day and loaded up over $2000 worth of games, figures and battleship models. With that nice fat pay raise, I’m going to treat myself to a nice bottle of chardonnay and get my new 50 inch LCD TV set up ready to enjoy the NFL playoffs.
62
X
suguar Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 11:57 pm
Apologies Poster #54, my employment inquiry was to Poster #43 supra who was referenced in your post…
63
X
realpaul Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 12:16 am
#49 Bob ( the dipshit math and history challenged realtardo pimp denier extrodinaire) Rennie just doesn’t get it.
Bob says
” do without parking’,
‘live with friends’
‘buy air space rights in a 500 sq ft condo without bedroom windows or doors on the bathroom”,
” sleep in a murphy bed cause theres no room for conventional furnishings”,
“pay over 100% of your disposable income on a mortgage thats so inflated that it beggars you for life”,
” it’s OK to pay a $1000 per sq.ft because we’re world class”,
“buy now because even though the markets falling and I’m pretty sure it will be OK in 150 years”.
” support current market prices even though every respected expert on the planet agrees and has published proof that the inflation in real estate is beyond historical precedent and markets are in freefall”.
Bobbie Douchebag seems to have crossed the path into madness and now speaks out of a three sided head, thinking he can change the universe with a sweep of his limp wrist and a poofy magic fart.
We’re just not ‘creative’ enough to understand his great power of persuasion. Apparently Bob Swishlips thinks we’re all stupid. Well Bobbie Butts, let me tell you an old axim of the marketplace,
“Never drink your own bathwater”.
The gig is up Boobie, you are going down in Vancouver history as the biggest asshole of all time.
64
X
realpaul Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 12:19 am
I should have include SupraBoy as a fake and a liar in the last post. What a load of crap.
65
X
Reza Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 12:39 am
After the Olympics, everyone will want to live in Vancouver!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/new.....-city.html
Or not…
66
X
scullboy Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 12:41 am
Hey Supraboy,
I have no doubt you and your colleagues are a tight nit group indeed. However:
nit |nit|
noun
the egg or young form of a louse or other parasitic insect, esp. the egg of a head louse attached to a human hair.
PHRASES
pick nits look for and criticize small or insignificant faults or errors; nitpick.
DERIVATIVES
nitty adjective
Have a nitty new year, pal.
67
X
CZ Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 12:51 am
I may have the same employer with realpaul – hiring freeze, Xmas party canceled…
I have been working with several high-tech companies, big and small, in good years and bad years. Here is what I’ve learned:
- bigger companies are stabler in bad time. Engineers with longer history and less paid (comparing to his efficiency) will survive.
- bigger companies are more generous, in the whole package point of view.
- smaller companies are not as generous as bigger ones, especially in bad time. Every penny needs to be in effect.
- contract jobs are the first targets to be cut when the fancy terms kicking in: restructuring, reorganizing, or budget control.
- general tech jobs, like network admins, are second targets to cut, as the expertises can be hired back easily when the company wants to expand. The real know-how nerds on the flag-ship products are the ones with golden bowls.
- generally speaking, java programmers/companies are kind of .com type of booming, and usually short-lived, either engineer-wise or small company-wise, when bad day comes.
Wish Supraboy good luck.
68
X
read on Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 1:09 am
Supraboy Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 11:37 pm
I’m a contactor, I was originally making 40/hour. They gave me a raise up to $50/hour. I guess I was severely underpaid.
——–
That’s a 25% raise, retard.
Math is good.
69
X
Patiently Waiting Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 3:32 am
Supraboy’s math skills are even worse than you think. He is really making $50/day.
CZ, agreed on smaller vs. larger companies. There is nothing like spending the weekend AFTER “pay day” anxiously wondering whether you’ll get your pay cheque on Monday. No, I’ll take the corporate job, despite being a small cog in a big machine.
70
X
Yalie Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 5:46 am
Article in Yahoo about the “9 economic factors that will weigh down the market in 2009″.
http://realestate.yahoo.com/pr.....-2009.html
I don’t necessarily disagree with any of them, but it is interesting that they omitted the most important reason: housing prices are still fundamentally too high. Funny how they left that one out.
71
X
NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 8:05 am
Here is a story in the Richmond Review re: the collapse of the Pinnacle Development in North Richmond .
http://www.bclocalnews.com/ric.....26949.html
QUOTE:
” Crews would raze the few buildings and houses left of the area bounded by No. 3 Road, Sea Island Way, Sexsmith Road and Capstan Way, and build an entirely new mixed-use neighbourhood with 16 high-rises, a series of mid-rise buildings with a total of 2,136 homes.
The seven-hectare (17.2-acre) community would be linked to a new Canada Line station at Capstan Way, thanks to the developer’s willingness to ante up $15 million, and include a daycare for 25 children, 100 units of affordable subsidized rental housing, $250,000 worth of public art and live-work units. ”
QUOTE:
” The plans were so bankable that city staff included the concept inside the revamped City Centre Area Plan last summer.
Peter Webb, vice-president of development for Concord Pacific, told The Richmond Review groundbreaking could be early 2008. It wasn’t.
Now city planners say the plans will be run through the shredder. ”
=======================================================
What I read into this is these big time developers(Pinnacle and Concord ), realize the market is tanking, now turning tail, running and cutting their losses, even if it means throwing away years of work.
It appears that this Pinnacle project is not being mothballed..it is being NUKED back to ground zero!!!
Realpaul called Richmond City Hall dinks..which is too polite a word. City Hall created an new City Center Area Plan which it passed in July 2008…which allowed for more Hi-Rises (aka competition) in the City Center, as this Pinnacle development was being planned.
However, maybe its just as well Pinnacle got cancelled…if it proposed 2000 + homes in that area of North Richmond, traffic would be a disaster, given the area is in close proximity to highway access and 3 major bridges to the airport and Vancouver, and that added population would create more gridlock.
The planning model was reliant on the RAV line to facilitate public transit. Now I think the RAV line will be an even bigger white elephant . Too many Local Gov’ts planned hi- density adjacent to RAV line or concurrently used RAV as an excuse to plan Hi Rise and milk that Cash Cow. Their ridership projections will be shot, given the condo glut and the condo specuvestors will not be riding these SkyTrains.
Thus, There was no need to build RAV into Richmond…I predict the ridership numbers will be embarassing.
That is a whole other issue…how various Local Gov’ts have created OCP’s modelled on Hi Density and SkyTrain and the collateral consequences of these ill-advised decisions.
Keep in mind that the Pinnacle project is dying at the behest of the developer. Local Gov’ts will not change OCP on their own (ie downsize a current zoning from HiRise to low rise), or else they may be sued by the property owner for any/all lost value. However, that would then leave many properties sitting on “potential” or “highest and best use” that may not be realized for years, if ever.
In light of this, we may see a wave of requests by property owners and developers to downsize (which may be both UNprecedented yet ultimately pragmatic )their current “highest and best uses” and change OCP’s , that may lead to a correction to better balance the “supply versus demand” market forces.
72
X
NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 8:33 am
Re: Bob Rennie
My prediction is he has crashed and burned…but it will take a while for many to realize it.
Like Pavlov’s dog and the bell , people will begin to equate Rennie with condos in kneejerk fashion. Condos will have a negative association/correlation for years. Hence, pretty easy to make the connection between “Condo King” Rennie and any mention of condos.
He has nothing to gain by spouting the pathologically optimistic realturd pablum…he will simply humiliate himself (and maybe even negatively inspire some psycho).
If he does continue, sounds more like King Kanute meets a certifiable egomaniac.
I read that his firm got a fee of $50,000 per unit they marketed . WTF for ? Somebody got ripped off !!! That many lemmings fine -tuned to Bob’s siren call ?
In essence Bob has lost his credibility, his brand name is somewhat toxic via the lion’s share of the market his firm had. One almost wonders if Rennie’s “aura” inspired the glut…obviously a lot of developers drank the “condo is king” kool-aid.
Advice:
Bob should retire and fade off into the sunset, while the gettins’ still good. Enjoy that art collection ,look in the mirror, and eat some humble pie.
73
X
vancouverboom2 Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 8:55 am
SHOCKING NEW NUMBERS(resale listing at 12k something)
Link1 Yeah yeah yeah Ok Okey
Link2 Yeah yeah yeah Ok Okey
September, 2008- 22,605
December, 2008 – 16,200
January,2009 -13,500
Reveled that Vancouver is not a California or Florida not even a New York but Vancouver is one of it’s kind of fundo place on earth(an unexplained mystery) I would say Vancouver is a yeah yeah place on earth Yeah,yeah,yeah, Ok!Okey!!
74
X
vancouverboom2 Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 8:57 am
#74+ Vancouver is yeah yeah place on earth Yeah,yeah,yeah,Ok!Okey!!
75
X
Drachen Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 9:19 am
NO LYMPICS
“In essence Bob has lost his credibility, his brand name is somewhat toxic”
But what does he care? He’s like the CEO of Lehman Bros. or one of the other big bank failures in the States. 5 Years of sloppy work, retire filthy rich. Or you could work honestly and hard, keeping your integrity and that of your company solid and retire in 25 years with 1/4 the money… It’s only a tough choice if you care about other people.
76
X
Supraboy Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 9:37 am
Stop crying boys and girls. Stop nitpicking on my math, 20% or 25%, it doesn’t matter, a raise is a raise. So many big companies are holding up dead weights. I have friends at Mckesson and Business Objects and they told me they have a lot of old men and women working there and they don’t know squat. I shouldn’t worry about my job since there’s a lot of fat to trim off the markets. My skills are marketable and I’m in my late 20s. They can fire all they want, if they do so, I’ll travel to South America and enjoy life while you people here scream like hyenas begging on the streets of cordova.
77
X
Supraboy Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 9:37 am
And as far as I’m concerned, if I get fired or laid off, I can guarantee you that North America ain’t getting a single penny from me in terms of economic spending because I’m outta here.
78
X
Anonymous Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 9:43 am
supraboy you are required to be quite for a bit do not respond to this one later.
79
X
scullboy Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 9:55 am
Suprabitch, I speak for the whole of North America when I say:
Good. Now please fuck off and let the adults continue their conversation. Oh and take Sat V and Browntown with you.
80
X
NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 10:03 am
Drachen:
Exactly my point.
He(Rennie) DOES care, but only in a self serving hubris – laden fashion.
Other VCI posters have noted Rennie over the past few months…Rennie sightings move from Elvis (have you seen Bob lately ???? ) to Dracula ( Bob has risen from the dead !!!).
Rennie seesm to be exhibiting a character flaw often unique to those who have been “King of their Domain”, but can’t let go, something akin to a narcissist complex.
Instead of laying low, and enjoying his wealth, he now seems to want to re-write history, edit his legacy, which in my view is more akin to the ” Pied Piper ” (of condos).
He is scrapping the bottom of the barrel in a recent article another VCI poster noted..Rennie is going down memory lane re: his Dad’s purchase of a house in 1953 ? IMHO, the fundamentals that allowed his dad to purchase that home were long gone approx. 30 years ago.
The article I had posted earlier noted he had taken out full page ads promoting the VANOC Olympic bid…gee I wonder why ?
We’ve sent this before by the rich and powerful who scheme shaft and screw their way to the top…then all of a sudden find religion at the 11th hour and want to be remembered in positive glowing terms.
All I see Rennie doing now is either ordering more kool aid to lure more suckers in an act of desperation on Rennies part…. or trying to deflect blame.
Even he must realize deep down that the phone will be quiet for months, if not years. As the saying goes, the bigger they are, the harder they fall.
81
X
RennieWhereRU? Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 10:25 am
My wife and I are looking at renting a 2BR condo in Port Moody. There seems to be plenty of units that specuvestors are caught with. Most in ONNI’s high-rise towers are asking $1,500 to $1,600 per month with free internet and cable for a year. Anyone have any suggestions for negotiating rent. I was going to work backwards from market value of the unit, but projecting that in today’s market is hard to say the least. Its also hard to find out exactly what tenants have agreed to rent places for. Craigslist can be pie in the sky. Given the number of units available and the more to come in the overall market, I would think the owner would be flexible to negotiate. Thanks fellow bears.
82
X
GS Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 10:35 am
Supraboy, from the sounds of it you may actually be pretty safe. At $50/hour you are probably one of the lower paid contractors, and in my experience the expensive ones are laid off first. Management will be satisfied by simply having warm bodies around to keep things running. If you were one of the highly skilled contractors making $100/hour you would have more to worry about.
83
X
arit Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 11:12 am
Supraboy,
“Arit, which company do you work for? Business Objects? Mckesson? MDA? ”
Bingo. One of these three.
“you have to deal with company politics and the big boys up top controlling things. ”
Yes, definitely. Absolutely agree.
“Working for big companies sucks.
The tasks are so miniscual. ”
Depends on your position. Some of us produce things that benefit humanity. Makes me feel good.
“I worked for a big company here before and I can tell you that I did nothing all day”
We have those people too…
On the other hand, I am pretty sure once the shit hits the fan, my company will survive. The chances of me being fired are slim. The contractors are the first to go (they are already going).
A word of advice, for free: Do not spend all your cash on action figures. One day you will need savings to put food on your children’s tables.
Best regards,
arit
84
X
CZ Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 11:24 am
#81-RennieWhereRU,
For rental, my way to calculate reasonable rental is:
(current market sale price) x coefficient / 180
The coefficient is that during JAN 2009 to DEC 2009:
(1 – (months-passed-since-jan-of-2009 x 4%))
The 4% linear decay may be too ideal, you can adjust it based on market odometer and fluctuation on different month of a year.
E.g., a 2BR condo can be sold at market price of 300K today, and you are going to rent it on May 2009:
coefficient = (1 – 4 x 4%) = 84%
the monthly rent should be:
300,000 x 84% / 180 = 1400
If you what to rent on Feb or Nov of 2009, they are respectively be 1600 (4% drop from Jan) and 1000 (40% drop).
According to Marx’s theory, the condo rental declination (or employee pressure, in Marx’s original context) is proportional to the number of empty condos on the market (or unemployed work force).
Just one way to think, good luck in your hunting.
85
X
arit Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 11:27 am
Scullboy,
“Suprabitch”? That’s you level of sofistication? I don’t remember supraboy using ad-hominems against you or anybody else here for that matter. All of us have their weak points, and so do you. Do not make this personal. You don’t like him, do not read his posts. I expect more from you.
Best regards,
arit
86
X
realpaul Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 12:16 pm
No lympics, you’re really on fire today, keep up the good work. THX for the great hound dog work on the Richmond file. I think that Richmond activity is indicitive of what is happening in every other sub area. What my point being that the City an Municipal councils are seeing giant holes blown out of their projections. Taxes are either going way up next year or someones got ‘ some spailin’ to do’.
#78/79 I’m glad I’m not the only one who’s realised that the SupraBoy avatar is a twisted figment of his own narcissistic fantasy. Everything he has said is total BS. He lives at home, has no job, wants to relate but just comes off as a total git in real life as well as cyberspace. He/she is an angry auroboro of self loathing.
87
X
NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 12:45 pm
# 81
RE: Renting
Suggestion:
YOU as a renter in these current times should now consider yourself a ” hot commodity in demand . ”
Put an ad in the paper.
Y-O-U put in the ad the ” Rental Specifications” of what you want to rent .
—Define the general area you are willing to rent in.
—Type of accomodations(ie Condo, apartment , Basement Suite )
— ” Range” of rent you are willing to pay
(IMHO the rental prices you mentioned seem quite high…seems more like a mortgage payment for a specuvestor versus a market price in what projections indicate will be a glutted rental market.)
—What to pay for rent?
Check ads and see the market price.
Rents are asking prices…be bold and do some grinding….if your are prepared to pay, or can afford to pay say $1500 then offer $1200 or perhaps less.
(Remember: your rent is funded by “after tax” income…depending on your tax bracket, every dollar you save backwashes to much less wasted sweat at the employers digs).
—Is parking available?
–Have them send you the info on – line, including photos.
– If you go hi – rise condo… ask how many rentors the Strata Bylaws allow, if it is fairly high, that may be a warning sign. Too many renters may be a problem, very transient, and less stability…turns the building into a social housing project?
– Who fixes problems ? some Stratas insist on certifed tradesmen…costly , thus who pays? and how fast will problems be fixed ?
Suggestion: avoid specuvestor landlords…may relinquish ownership soon…and you may be evicted by the new owner (ie the Banks , foreclosures ?).
Watch for scammmers who pretend to be landlords.
How long a lease are you willing to sign…perhaps shorter term than longer…based on the aforementioned condo glut. You can always re-new if you like the place, but I wouldn’t stay locked into a lease too long.
You mentioned condo, but perhaps look at a SFH….it may be same or cheaper re: rent (unless that doesn’t fit your lifestyle.)
etc. etc.
Overall: It may cost you some coin to place an AD, but ask yourself what IS your time and gas costs worth ?
Good Luck and Happy Hunting !
88
X
suguar Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 12:45 pm
#81…read my Dec 2 post about my rental experience…I am not familiar with the Port Moody area…do your homework in advance and show up with it in hand…what are you bringing to the table in terms of being a desirable tenant…leverage that immediately in the conversation. A week after I signed my lease, I still had landlords calling me looking for my business and willing to keep negotiating…many of those places are still for rent as of last night when I checked out Craigslist…I made a list/hard copy of all the places I was planning to visit and liberally shared it with every landlord I met with…I also reinforced in the conversation, that lost rent is not recoverable..it packs a one-two punch when the landlord actually sees what he/she is up against in terms of available inventory. CZ#81 has a more technical approach and there is an opp to combine both. Have a bottom line rental number in mind and be prepared to walk..I neg a signiciant discount on my lease without having to provide my passport, DL, BC or SIN number. Good luck!
89
X
Patiently Waiting Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 12:57 pm
#81 – A co-worker put an ad on Craigslist in the “apts wanted” section. She specified the exact building, what she was willing to pay (along with other terms), and her strengths as a tenant. She offered $1200 for units that were being advertised at roughly $1500. A landlord contacted her and she got exactly what she wanted.
90
X
bdk Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 12:58 pm
“If you go hi – rise condo… ask how many rentors the Strata Bylaws allow, if it is fairly high, that may be a warning sign. Too many renters may be a problem, very transient, and less stability…turns the building into a social housing project?”
Hey No-Lympics.
The buildings I’ve lived in and had to know stuff about for work were all between 30-60% rentals (the form K was filled out) but the real problem “occupants” who’s parents own the place but don’t live there. These “owners” know they can’t be evicted.
Drug Dealers can also place their staff in units they own and then claim ignorance later (like at 550 Taylor).
Ownership might have meant something before but in a lot of cases that distinguished looking academic ,on the elevator, is the “renter” and the bratty early 20’s asian girl is an “owner”
Furthermore flippers are leveraged to the hilt making them just as transient. Many flippers have used the same technique as “laddering” (with bonds) and have been moving into a unit while waiting for it to sell and hoping t sells before the next building completes (I have referenced the hairstylist with 6 assignments before, it’s a true story)
These people know they won’t be around long and have no more respect than a dirty renter. They just have to pay 2.5 times the rent to the bank every month for the next 40 years!
The only people moving into Shangri la are tenants but the tenants at least have to be screened, unlike the hairstylist or the baby boomer parents’ who’ve mortgaged their house to buy their kids a condo.
91
X
NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 1:12 pm
Interesting article by James Kunstler
Predictions for 2009
He refers to the ” THE LONG EMERGENCY ”
http://www.straight.com/articl.....ast-2009?#
QUOTE:
” The big theme for 2009 economically will be contraction. The end of the cheap energy era will announce itself as the end of conventional “growth” and the shrinking back of activity, wealth, and populations. Contraction will come as a great shock to a world of conventionally programmed economists. They will toil and sweat to account for it, and they will probably be wrong. Unfortunately, this contraction will do its work in unpleasant ways, driving down standards of living, shearing away hopes and expectations for a particular life of comfort, and introducing disorder to so many of the systems we have depended on for so long. People will starve, lose their homes, lose incomes and status, and lose the security of living in peaceful societies. It will become clear that the Long Emergency is underway.
My hope for the year, at least for my own society, is that we will transition away from being a nation of complacent, distracted, over-fed clowns, to become a purposeful and responsible people willing to put their shoulders to the wheel to get some things done. My motto for the new year: “no more crybabies!”
=============================================
Kuntsler pulls no punches and plays no favourites
92
X
suguar Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 1:18 pm
It is probably a numbers game…most of the landlords I met during my rental search seemed very genuine and nice…my current landlord is awesome, has been very helpful to me in numerous instances at own expense….and although I am still new to the building, the people I have met so far are very pleasant and good neighbors.
93
X
scullboy Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 1:52 pm
Arit,
I suppose it depends on your definition of ad hominem. Besides his silly prattle about cigars and action figures, this line:
“I’ll travel to South America and enjoy life while you people here scream like hyenas begging on the streets of cordova.”
pretty much begged for a verbal slap upside the head.
As you say, I can ignore his postings I suppose…. but then again you’re just as free to ignore mine.
As far as I’m concerned the odd snipe just keeps the motes entertaining. I don’t mind too much when people take the odd swipe as me (a la Pandora and No – Lympics), but as far as I’m concerned that entitles me to dish it right back out.
As for the slap I took at Supraboy, consider it part of his education. If he’s going to jump on a board like this and start behaving like a jackass (as he so plainly is), ignoring him just reinforces his juvenile behavior. Smacking him around a little at least helps him learn that posting asinine comments has a consequence.
94
X
Supraboy Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 1:54 pm
“Depends on your position. Some of us produce things that benefit humanity. Makes me feel good.
We have those people too…
On the other hand, I am pretty sure once the shit hits the fan, my company will survive. The chances of me being fired are slim. The contractors are the first to go (they are already going).”
Hey Arit, you know what? good for you for keep up companies while dead weights leech off you. I’ve been on both sides of the fence and I too worked for one of those 3. After one month of being in one of them, I realized that I can jackoff all day and take 2 hour lunch breaks. I looked around and my team lead was always out and took sick leaves every week, if he can do that, so can I. The mommies working there were leaving early everyday to pick up their kids. They’re not on contract though, they’re full time and they think they’ve got it good. They’ll never get laidoff anyways because they pretend to work and talk a lot in meetings. I’m glad I was there for 3 years and I sucked enough cash and built over $40k in my RRSP through investments and contributions. I was constantly focused on daytrading rather than working and nobody cared. I got friends doing the same things everyday at those companies. They’ll never shut down and if they trim the contractors, the fulltimers will still be enjoying life sucking cash.
95
X
Drachen Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 2:37 pm
Supraboy
So let me get this straight. You’re a lazy ass and you’re patting yourself on the back for that attitude?
Enjoy Cordova, but if you’re travelling to South America looking for it you might be disappointed.
On the bright side for your career, I hear there is a keen interest in young desperate men in South America, you might still be young enough to qualify!
Also, hyenas come from Africa.
96
X
bdk Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 2:50 pm
That was a good smack down scullboy, you don’t owe any courtesy to someone who’s either trying to take this blog off topic or genuinely too stupid to be posting on this blog.
My wife’s been giving me a hard time about my lack of cooking skills, do you think you could teach me the basics if we hire you to come over for dinner?
97
X
CondoMan Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 2:53 pm
I think this site is very negative. Agreed that prices of condos are over valued but going down 50%, unlikely. There will still be a strong demand in Point Grey area and etc. do to demand and supply.
As for rents, I have scanned craigslist and don’t see the rents going down drastically either in Yaletown or Kitsilano.
98
X
bdk Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 2:58 pm
#97 is just another troll.
All this mainstream exposure is bound to bring out more trolls unfortunately.
If you are serious #97 then you’re just a moron. There are ten times as many units available and the rents are down 20% and still dropping. You can get a new unit at Shangri La for $1600. This means that Residences on Georgia cannot get $1450 anymore and that’s why there are thousands of empty units available for rent right now.
If you have any doubt post a housing wanted ad on craigslist and see how many replies you get.
99
X
Strataman Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 3:04 pm
condoman “As for rents, I have scanned craigslist and don’t see the rents going down drastically either in Yaletown…)
Vacant! Immediate possession! So rents are not going down and…nothing is renting..must be really neat for these landlords to pay mortgages on EMPTY units they are trying to rent? So they say something like “I will NOT rent less then my payment!” And the renter says “FINE keep it”. So which one is sleeping at night? 
Yeh you are right…trouble is using your source “Craiglist” I don’t see any thing being rented either!
100
X
scullboy Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 3:55 pm
BDK:
I can teach you to cook like a GOD ! It really takes many years if you’re self-taught (trial and error to get things exactly right) but it takes no time at all if you have a skilled teacher. I came up with some great dishes I tested out at parties on New Year’s Eve, I heard some guests quietly asking the host to hide the food so they could take it home as leftovers.
Cooking lessons is one of the services I offer, and actually I was thinking of something like “couples” night, where 2 couples relax and learn to make something new. I’ve spent many weeks on my business plan, so my website is still rudimentary but go to http://www.thelaughingchef.ca, you can find my contact information there.
My rates are extremely competitive as well. I was able to get the financing I need to start the business, so the next 6 months are about going to school and fine – tuning my offerings. I have loads of great, simple recipes that involve maybe 5 ingredients and perhaps 20 minutes of prep time.
Thanks for the comment about the blog. I really offered the explanation to Arit, whom I respect. I thought he deserved some kind of response.
Sorry to the rest of you, since this is extremely off topic.
101
X
realpaul Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 4:10 pm
An issue many new condo owners have not considered is what happens to the strata costs in a building with many vacancies/unsold units/foreclosure props.
Special Assesments on condo owners are going to be the leaky condo crisis of 2009 ad infinitum.
You will be hit with huge new additional fees to maintain a building which is substantially vacant.
102
X
NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 4:13 pm
Post # 90 bdk:
Good scoop !
Thanks for not only filling in the blanks, but exposing the loopholes !
It may get to the point stratas turn blind eyes to their own bylaws…as a “renter” provides cash flow which concurrently allows for the various strata fees to be paid, thus less burden on the other strata members.
=========================================================
Condoman:
Nice try but no cigar. IMHO…there is a reverse lag..too much product was already built before the crash that never justified demand even for specuvestors.
That’s becoming clear now , it wasn’t as obvious earlier, but still a negative force to be reckoned with as the market “attempts” to adjust. Adding salt to the “fiscal black hole wound” is more condo product caught mid – stream but can’t turn back now and add to supply.
The specuvestors are still fishing for a Spring return of spawning purchasers and renters…good bloody luck ! They are still using the OLD Real Estate Bible/rule book…they best recycle it in the Blue Box.
103
X
Lily pad Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 4:50 pm
Happy New Year! I hope 2009 is good to you.
I wish to share a rental story about a friend of mine who moved into a 600 sq. ft. brand new 1 bedroom condo at W. Georgia and Bute complete with parking, fireplace, view, gym, concierge on January 1st.
This friend had found two similar condos about one week ago and one owner was asking $1500/mo. and the other $1750/mo. for a unit that had a bit better view. My friend provided good letters of reference and told the representative for each owner that he was willing to pay just over $2/sq. ft ($1300/mo.) The owner who was asking $1500/mo. accepted his offer and the owner (a dude who lives in Germany) who was asking $1750/mo. was so offended he fired his realtor/rep.
True story to the best of my knowledge.
104
X
bdk Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 5:08 pm
Lily pad, I’ve looked at those units too.
You’re either talking about the ritz (Melville and Bute) or the sapphire (pender and bute) both are cheaply built new buildings.
I checked out three units in the ritz and was offered $1400, and two $1500 (one agent said to offer $1450) but I declined. It’s the same size unit you’re referring too.
The owners trying to get $1750 have been advertising since September and would be paying $3,000+ every month that it’s vacant to the bank.
This’ll cause the prices of the surrounding buildings to drop their rental rates as tenants look around and see they can do better.
Throw in another 3900 units next year and rents will be way way down and the west end will have to revert back to being $800 a unit (none of this $1200 nonsense for bed bugs and no laundry)
105
X
Lily pad Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 5:20 pm
Correction to my previous post. I just double checked and the building my friend moved into is 8 years old (built in 2000). I guess when he said it was “brand new” he meant it looked like brand new inside because it was well taken care of.
Sorry about the misinformation.
106
X
ant Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 5:25 pm
Condoman: Nice try, but since when is a 50% price crash on condos ‘very unlikely’? The odds of it have been increasing over the past couple of years, and according to Ozzie Jurock prices on New Apartments are already down 24%.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NbtEEgXhzss
His ‘optimistic’ forecast for 2009 is a 10% drop across the board, we’ll see how that turns out.
107
X
Supraboy Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 5:30 pm
“So let me get this straight. You’re a lazy ass and you’re patting yourself on the back for that attitude?
Enjoy Cordova, but if you’re travelling to South America looking for it you might be disappointed.”
So what if I’m lazy for 3 years, why should I have worked harder for a company that’s full of dead weights? They haven’t even seen a firefox browser in their life and they’re hauling in 55k/year, that’s complete bs for an IT company. To make it worse, when I showed them the command prompt and typed in ‘ipconfig’, they asked me if I came out of the Matrix. If stupid people in an IT company here in Vancouver can get 55k, I think I deserve to work less and sit back. Working less getting the same pay = pay raise. Seriously, why do incompetent people always get hired in those big companies? They use one finger to hit the keyboard with. My 3 hours of work = their 8 hours of work.
As for South America, I’ve been there 3 times already.
108
X
arit Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 5:49 pm
scullboy,
Thanks for the explanation. I hope you understand that my issue was with the language used (we have a reputation to keep) and not with the content. Bring more of that content.
Supraboy,
“If stupid people in an IT company here in Vancouver can get 55k, I think I deserve to work less and sit back. ”
“why do incompetent people always get hired in those big companies?”
Well, when the tide goes out, we will see who has been swimming naked.
Best regards
arit
109
X
NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 5:50 pm
Invest in Moving Company stock and door hinge companies. People will be playing Landlords off against each other.
My suggestion to renters is get a maximum 6- month lease…with option to renew. The dust starts to settle by mid – 2009, and the bidding for renters season starts ( after the specuvestors wake up and line -up at the proctologist to get their heads extracted from their ying – yangs ).
Downtown will be U-G-L-Y for Landlords.
Conversely , a “Candy store ” for renters.
“The Shangri-La de da” should be fun to watch….lights out baby lights out. When the boom was on, I mused that Vancouver would try for a 100 storey building(without King Kong), but the “Shangi-La De Da” may end up the tallest = emptiest building in Vancouver. Maybe it should have a plaque as a historical marker as a memorial for the collapse of Vancouver RE.
(Maybe even Bob Rennies asshes err “ashes” should be buried there ? )
110
X
bdk Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 5:51 pm
Sorry about feeding the troll guys but
Supraboy are you implying that $55k is a good wage?
111
X
other ted Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 6:10 pm
“Supraboy are you implying that $55k is a good wage?”
in vancouver bdk it sadly is.
112
X
bdk Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 6:24 pm
other ted.
The median income is $41k but the thick brained troll has already stated that rich asians (who make $24k on average) and himself have been buying property and building sports cars etc. when in fact he’s probably a security guard ($11/hr max) and lives with his Mummy. In fact he’s admitted to living with his parents already so that isn’t even an insult.
If he works at business objects then he’s in the mailroom at best ($15/hr) and clearly has no idea what is going on beyond his Mums basement and has no business posting on here, I was just giving him the opportunity to open his mouth and prove how dumb he really is.
113
X
Lis Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 6:27 pm
Supraboy,
By god you deserved the raise. I do $45 an hour for graphic design work. I’d hope someone in IT would make more than me as graphic design is really badly paid and competitive.
But as for running away to South America … wow, that sounds like a silly boy’s fantasy. I worked in South America. Despite what the travel agency might tell you it’s not all coconuts and beaches and if you don’t have a good grasp of the language you are screwed. Plus, the native IT peeps there get pretty low salaries.
114
X
Z3 Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 6:59 pm
Word on the street is that local developer is going to start to auction off unsold units in the next 6 weeks.
115
X
ant Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 7:58 pm
Correction on the ozzie video, condo prices are not down 24% when factoring in price per/sqare foot. For what it’s worth, with immigration continuing and lots of decent wage earners looking to buy this year, i think the market is at a bottom now.
116
X
troller Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 8:12 pm
What does a stock boy at Stongs make?
117
X
Supraboy Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 8:13 pm
“By god you deserved the raise. I do $45 an hour for graphic design work. I’d hope someone in IT would make more than me as graphic design is really badly paid and competitive.
But as for running away to South America … wow, that sounds like a silly boy’s fantasy. I worked in South America. Despite what the travel agency might tell you it’s not all coconuts and beaches and if you don’t have a good grasp of the language you are screwed. Plus, the native IT peeps there get pretty low salaries.”
Hey Lis, I’m not going to south america to work. I’m just taking my cash down there to enjoy life. I hoarded 6 figures in the past 8 years and I’d like to enjoy life, take some spanish classes and do some fishing down there. I’ve got friends down in Argentina, Colombia and Ecuador. Food down there is way cheaper than here. I was in Spain for 2 months in the summer and I enjoyed it there, 2L of Orange Juice costed me only 1.25 Euros, in Vancouver, you look to pay almost $6.00 plus taxes. I’ve studied spanish for around 3 years in school, went to Argentina twice for 2 months and spent 2 months in Spain, so I can survive in a spanish speaking country. Not like I’m going there for work.
The scenario is: if laid off, take money and run.
If not, stick around and collect more cash.
118
X
Supraboy Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 8:16 pm
bdk, post 110, if you think 55k isn’t a good salary in Vancouver, you better give your head a shake. Go to any banks and ask how much those people sitting in the office is making, not talking about tellers. Tellers on average make only $15/hour.
119
X
ant Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 8:28 pm
I didn’t post 115, Get your own name jackass. With lots of ‘decent wage earners’ hoping not to get laid off, we’re nowhere near market bottom in Vancouver, the collapse has just begun. Anyone who thinks house prices here will do anything but fall in 2009 is either a con-man or an idiot. We’ve got a long ways to go before we’re anywhere near fundamentals.
120
X
Lily pad Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 8:33 pm
The human collateral continues…
Quebec couple’s suicide pact led to deaths of father, 3 children: police
…
Recently bought home
The godparents of Gauthier-Lachance said she had been working at a shopping mall in Chicoutimi, but just before Christmas she lost her job.
Her husband had also lost his job as a real estate agent in recent months, and the couple had recently purchased their home.
“The family is wondering if financial strain may have contributed to this,” Margison said.
Neighbours said the family had moved into the home about six months ago.
Police have not publicly speculated on a possible motive for the deaths. They said they might be able to interview the mother on Saturday.
Autopsies on the father and children are expected early next week.
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story.....eaths.html
121
X
ant Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 8:37 pm
I hope you guys aren’t intelligent enough to watch the Ozzie video, i don’t want you you to see i was full of shit. I know my bear spin though.
122
X
Lily pad Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 9:25 pm
Information Services Vancouver is a great resource for anyone reaching out for help regarding housing, family issues, financial issues and so on.
Please, please, please, folks. If you find yourself in a difficult bind — reach out. There are people out there who are skilled and knowledgeable.
http://www.communityinfo.bc.ca/211a.html
Does anyone have links to resources for how to declare bankruptcy and go through the foreclosure process like the “you walk away” website in the states?
http://youwalkaway.com
123
X
realpaul Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 10:01 pm
#81 no lympics, excellent article. Like it or not, very well written, intellectual cotton candy.
#122 Lilypad, CA and FLA are unique in US state property law. Nothing similar exists in CDN law. See a lawyer who specializes in bankruptcy for advice. Bankruptcy is a very onerous process in Canada under court supervision.
Foreclosure is a process in Canada rather than an event. No sheriffs auctions on the court house steps here. Minimum of one year procedural duties after issuance of application / six months for Order Nici to effect.
Delinquencies can be paid at any time during this period. This is what makes it allmost impossible to buy foreclosed or tax delinquency props in Canada. The law is equally applicable in evry province except Quebec.
124
X
realpaul Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 10:02 pm
sorry no lympics thats #91 I was referring to
125
X
scullboy Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 11:10 pm
Oh Supra, I can see what’s going to happen to you already.
Idiot. Who do you think makes the layoff choices? It’s those old people you keep laughing at. Why do you think they’ve been around forever? They know how to play the game WAY better then you do. And f they see someone young and aggressive coming up the ladder, they will be *SURE* to knock you off, ESPECIALLY if you are a contractor. You’ll be the first to go.
Jesus you’re working for cheap. My hourly wage before I left IT was about 100 bucks. YOu’re working for chump change.
And by all means head off to South America to learn Spanish. Know why things are so cheap in Colombia and Argentina?
BECAUSE EVERYONE WITH HALF A BRAIN AND ANY EDUCATION AT ALL HAS MADE A RUN FOR REFUGEE CANADA, YOU IDIOT!
I know whereof I speak. My ex is here. His mom is here. His aunt and uncle and both brothers are here. His dad would be here, but Dad got murdered.
And kidnappers loooooove foreigners, especially foreigners who can’t speak the language and have no connections in the country. In Colombia if you get kidnapped the government seizes your assets. Obviously they can’t do that to foreigners’ families so they’re a HUGE target. Not only will you lose all your money, your parents will have to sell their assets to rescue you.
Hey why not tattoo “Gringo Touristo, sequestro por favor” on your forehead while you’re at it? You seem to lack any kind of brain power or common sense, so I give you…. maybe….. 15 minutes out of the airport.
So yeah by all means, head off to South America. I’m going to laugh myself silly when they extort all of YOUR money, then all of your parents’ …. *if* they bother to pay the ransom. God knows I wouldn’t.
Dolt.
126
X
ulsterman Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 11:26 pm
realpaul, a good friend of mine (who is terrible with money) declared bk about 3 years ago. The process was straightforward though it took a year to finalize. However, they only had a couple of meetings with the person administering the bankruptcy. In return they walked away from 30k in credit card debit, found a cash-paying job, and received a new credit card from CIBC within a year of bankruptcy. My friend is feeling very pleased that they walked away from their obligations after years of racking up bills at restaurants, clothing stores etc.
The irony is that even as i attempt to give rudimentary advice, CIBC keeps increasing her credit limit and she is now 2k in debt and paying the minimum monthly. History appears to be repeating itself.
127
X
ulsterman Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 11:27 pm
realpaul, what i was trying to suggest with my previous post is that for some bk is no big deal
128
X
Vansanity Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 11:34 pm
Supraboy – I can see your insecurities a mile away. Trying to brag about your situation to us. At first I just laughed at your posts, but after reading more, I began to pity you.
It’s like the old saying goes: Those that can, do. Those that can’t, talk about it.
You’ve got a lot to learn, but please keep posting on here, I’m looking forward to hearing from you down the road.
Not to single you out but you’ve been pretty active on here. Starting with your “neutral position” to being a fullout bull with your observations of patrons at Chinese Restaurants and other great bits of self-proclaimed wisdom you continue to share with us.
129
X
ant Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 11:51 pm
Supraboy, you are really upsetting us bears. We don’t like it. i’m sure you didn’t mean to but we are upset now. Bears don’t want to be upset.
130
X
bdk Says:
January 3rd, 2009 at 11:58 pm
I think I’m getting it now.
Vancouver and Richmond are full of rich asians who make $15/hr working at the bank while their lazy sons ,who still live at home, make $55k and build sports cars and pay off houses in their entirety in six years…and this is why the average condo price is going to eclipse one million and all us dumb bears ,who make more than you, should be buying now?
131
X
Supraboy Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 12:37 am
“Oh Supra, I can see what’s going to happen to you already.
Idiot. Who do you think makes the layoff choices? It’s those old people you keep laughing at. Why do you think they’ve been around forever? They know how to play the game WAY better then you do. And f they see someone young and aggressive coming up the ladder, they will be *SURE* to knock you off, ESPECIALLY if you are a contractor. You’ll be the first to go”
Hey Scull boy, all the old people that I’m referring to are people in my same level or lower. I used to be a senior programmer but I converted over to being a Systems Administrator because I’m sick of working with incompetent people who can’t type or speak english properly.
FYI, I don’t need you to warn me or scare me about South America, I’ve been there before. People like you have no balls to do anything in life, that’s why you’re probably renting for the rest of your life. I’ve been to the middle east twice and there’s no danger there, I felt no issues roaming around on my own with my crappy arabic. You are probably hiding behind your computer reading propaganda from CNN about the dangers of the Middle East and South America, too bad you’re missing out in life. You’re one sad sack.
132
X
Supraboy Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 12:42 am
Ant, why couldn’t we just all live happily together? I try to present my subjective opinion while the bears are trying to take me down with their one-sided arguments. I bet none of them have ever shopped at T&T or Yaohan in Richmond, they should pull their head out of their sorry behind and take a look around Richmond, it’s bustling there. I just came back from Hong Kong a few weeks ago, everyone’s still out spending and eating. It took me two hours until I was able to get a table at a hot pot restaurant. My friend just came back from Seoul and he said there were lineups everywhere.
Until you go and explore for yourself, you can only resort to listening to the news, and if you’re partly educated, you’d know how much truth there is to the news.
Another thing to note is that real estate usually wouldn’t get hit hard unless unemployment rate is double digits.
133
X
Supraboy Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 12:44 am
bdk, you don’t get it, do you? Those Chinese people in Richmond don’t need to work, they just kill time taking odd jobs. They’ve got millions to begin with when they arrived in Vancouver. I bet you don’t know any rich people because you live in “Brown Town” Surrey, or some hicks city in Langley or Aldergrove.
134
X
Anonymous Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 1:19 am
“I used to be a senior programmer but I converted over to being a Systems Administrator because I’m sick of working with incompetent people who can’t type or speak english properly.”
so other people can’t type or speak english properly. you’ve already shown us you can’t do math properly.
135
X
jesse Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 8:43 am
Oops, garnishing is pre-bankruptcy however you are subject to paying surplus income during bankruptcy. Both amount to less money for you.
136
X
Draken is an? Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 8:48 am
Bdk,
One of my friend makes $14 per hour and his wife makes $9 per hours their house value is worth $600,000 and they have got two martgage helper downunder.
137
X
NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 9:02 am
I knew it would happen sooner or later :
VCI has now disintegrated into a p*ssing and pooping match between IT types and Techies.
138
X
NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 9:14 am
Re: Bankruptcy
Try this link, it has a lot of FAQ’s
http://bc.bankruptcycanada.com/faq.htm
I had noted a while back some family friends who had to declare bankruptcy( person is an accountant and played the stocks ).
They(family of 4) came out OK, and they were able to hold onto a lot of assets, in fact they moved up in their scale of housing. They had lost apporx. $500,000 but told me the laws had changed and worked in the favour of the debtor.
Hope this helps anyone in need.
139
X
Informer10 Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 9:50 am
Sorry bears,friends,what ever paul, no lympics, bdk, scullboy, sorry guys you have missed the boat,hey every single bears sorry you have missed the boat again!!!!!
Q:Did some one tell you to buy last year?
Q:Did some one remind you the best time to buy?
Q:Did some one tell you that it is good to buy underlist than over list?
140
X
Lily pad Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 9:56 am
Thanks for the bankruptcy information. I found this comment section interesting on no-lympics link:
https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=1686080081682537812&postID=786643076528112059
Realpaul: Could you please expand on the notion that it is impossible to by foreclosed properties in Canada. I was under the assumption that an offer would be made to the bank and if accepted taken to court. Please distinguish this process from your assertion. Thanks.
141
X
NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 10:12 am
Anyone check yesterday’s Vancouver Sun ?(ie Saturday Jan. 3 , 2009 edition )
Sure was thin.
Only one pages of ads by Polygon flogging (6) projects
The Homes section featured “The GRACE” by James Schouw
http://www.jamesschouw.com/
The Grace appears to cater to the wealthy, very high end, on RICHARDS Street . He claims to have only 2 units left to sell out of the original 71 offered, one for $1.8 million and other for $2.2 Million . Also a $15 million penthouse is up for grabs soon. Schouw states he will be building 2 more projects in Yaletown.
The building looks intriguing, but this is being built in Yaletown, an area which may end up dog’s breakfast with all the oversupply. Is his product that good that he can ignore the rest of the market and still attract buyers ?
He say he likes to be low profile, yet has a 2 page spread dedicated to him.
Anyone got any more scoop on this ?
142
X
NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 10:20 am
Post # 139
Ewe Speekink Engrush Puhreez !
No understandink U !
( If I didn’t know better, I would have surmised A-N-O-T-H-E-R Troll has joined VCI !!!!!)
143
X
squidly77 Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 10:25 am
realtors have no interest in a useful real estate discussion..there only desire is to profit of off others so that they can maintain their lazy free loading lifestyle
truth be told they have a huge dislike for the cities in which they go about their parasitical ways to profit
realtors would not e missed
Why You Can’t Trust Real Estate Agents When Buying A House
144
X
squidly77 Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 10:27 am
Why You Can’t Trust Real Estate Agents When Selling A House
145
X
Supraboy Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 10:43 am
#136
“One of my friend makes $14 per hour and his wife makes $9 per hours their house value is worth $600,000 and they have got two martgage helper downunder”
I got a few friends doing the same thing. One of them was originally from Vancouver, went to Hong Kong, made their millions, now they’re back, the husband’s getting minimum pay just to stay occupied while the wife is taking care of the kids. They have a $900k home paid off, basement is rented out, and they’re looking to buy one more house.
People here are dooming and glooming too much here because they’re probably all caucasians, I bet there aren’t any chinese people here on this board. If you’re Chinese, you’d know how loaded they are. I also bet not too many of you go down to Richmond to check out parking lots in the malls, most of the cars are worth at a minimum 25k, they don’t drive beat up old chevies or GMs, they’re roaming around in their Mercedes and BMWs, if they need cash, they can always liquidate their cars.
146
X
Vansanity Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 10:48 am
Bears upset? Lol! Uh ya, we’re actually happier than ever. So far we’ve saved roughly 18% and we’re looking at saving a lot more! Don’t hate us because we’re right.
Listening to insecure bulls just adds to our fun. 2008 was a great year, went ahead of plan and 2009…well…you’ll see! I have a feeling we’ll see plenty more insecure bulls on this blog in 2009, they’ll be coming out of the woodwork blaming us for it and trying to convince us every other day that the worst is over.
147
X
Supraboy Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 10:50 am
#128, Vansanity,
“Not to single you out but you’ve been pretty active on here. Starting with your “neutral position” to being a fullout bull with your observations of patrons at Chinese Restaurants and other great bits of self-proclaimed wisdom you continue to share with us.”
Apparently, you are trying to single me out. I’m here posting about the truth and you call it “self-proclaimed wisdom”. I report what I see. I had to line up for almost an hour to get a seat at Phnom Penh for lunch on Friday, then after I was done with lunch at 3pm, there were still people there. Why don’t you go check it out for yourself and see if it’s “self-proclaimed wisdom” or whether it’s the facts. Better yet, go to any Chinese restaurant for dim sum on Monday for lunch, if the restaurant isn’t packed, then call me liar, troll, or whatever you want. I don’t even dare go to Richmond on Saturdays and Sundays unless I have no choice because of the lineups.
148
X
Supraboy Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 10:52 am
“Bears upset? Lol! Uh ya, we’re actually happier than ever. So far we’ve saved roughly 18% and we’re looking at saving a lot more! Don’t hate us because we’re right.”
How did you save 18%? You’re only looking at stats, why don’t you open up the newspaper and see listing prioes, the rich Chinese can sit on the property forever and price you out. How am I a bull? I’m hoping the markets crash so I can buy myself another property, but that’s wishful thinking. With Obama and world governments coordinating a re-inflated move, good luck with your 18% savings.
149
X
John Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 10:54 am
Well bears I received my RRSP statement and I’m up 3% year over year and I’m invested in stocks. My broker is an ex SUV salesman that I’m good friends with and he’s treated me well. That along with the condo investments and SUV investments mean I’m way ahead of any bear on this board. Here’s the score as of today :
BEARS : -30%
BULLS : +3%
150
X
RennieWhereRU? Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 10:55 am
Thanks for all the tips with negotiating rental pad in Port Moody. Great responses all with fantastic and some unique points.
We looked at five places yesterday, three in Aria II and one in Sentinel and another in a building name I forget, in Newport Village though and around two years old. What became clear and as many posters have indicated, we are in the box seat. A lot of empty condos in these new buildings and all units in Aria II we looked at were clearly purchased without an ounce of intent of living in them.
After having sold our Mount Pleasant condo in June 2007 we rented a house in Coquitlam, on the Port Moody border.
(The pressure from family and friends to buy at that time was immense. Even after gently explaining that why would we buy a house we could, at conservative estimates, occupy for half the cost in rent, people still did not comprehend. Funny how education system does not teach the basics on financial calculations, household budgeting, etc. The looks from some at parties when we said we rented a house in Coquitlam was priceless, we might as well have been leppers. I am going off in another tangent here, but what has happended this year has given me fits of joy and I wake up every morning with a huge grin on my face then bust out into a break dance while listening to Bill Good talkback with his pimp guests pumping this dead horse. One of his comments when he had Peter Schiff on got shot down so bad, I was laughing for hours. Something about a friend of his that has a house that the renter covers most of his mortgage costs. All us smart bears know how Peter would have blew this out of the water)
Sorry about the above, now we know what options are out there for us, I am confident we can acheive a lower rental on the house. The heating costs associated with occupying a 40+ year old dwelling that backs onto a greenbelt are astonishing. We are paying $1,695 a month (plus another $400 in gas, hydro, cable, internet, lawn guy, insurance, plus hours in opportunity cost shovelling the snow, cleaning the gutters, raking the leaves, etc), they have not increased rent since we moved in. I hate hard ball negotiating, I prefer a more mutual/reasonable approach, which I think is asking the landlord for a $300 per month reduction. My reasoning is that we are extremely good tenants, have always paid rent on time, young family, very good household income, etc. and that the house would sit empty for at least 2 months, therfore lost rent of around $280 per month. Rents have definately not moved up since June 2007 and how many folks are looking for this type of rental accomodation these days. Then there is added risk of them getting a shitty tenant, who damages, defaults, etc, costing them a lot more cash. This has occured to them in the past, so I know for sure they have this worry. Do you folks think this is a reasonable offer? We are dealing with a property manager since the owners live in Colorado. Relatively comparable houses on craigslist (yes poor source) available in Coquitlam at rents from $1,400 to $1,750. Again, pie on the sky stuff for the most part. The worst case scenario is that after all considerations; heating costs, hydro costs, free inclusion of cable and internet in the codo, reduced rental rate on codo (should be able to get in at $1,250 to $1,350 for a 2BR) we would save between $400 to $600 a month if our current landlord knocks our offer back or $300 a month if they accept. Nice to be actively part of this wider real estate correction. Staying on month to month would also be good, because it is likely we could approach in another six months with the same reduced offer to them, or maybe buy a foreclosed codo in Port Moody for $200,000.
On another topic, any takers for the month/year this website is retired becase the bubble has completely exploded pushing values down below their fundamental floor? Liked this comment from the link.
Everywhere we looked, home prices were skyrocketing to unjustified levels. Mortgage fraud was encouraged. Debt was seen as wealth. Price to rent and price to income didn’t matter. Loans were being given to anyone who could fog a mirror. Housing porn shows ruled the airwaves. Realtors were telling us if we didn’t buy now we’d be priced out forever, and that year-round-golf justified high home prices. Our fellow citizens were queuing up for home lotteries. And the world had lost its mind in an orgy of fraud and gambling on housing.
Link is here:
http://housingpanic.blogspot.com/
Thank you all once again.
151
X
realpaul Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 11:10 am
#138/140/126 Lily pad , it is not impossible , it is ‘allmost’ impossible, that is the distinction you asked for. After the issuance of Order Nisi the debtor can pay any/all delinquencies at any time. You may submit an offer to the court only to have it held in trust until such time as the prodedure expires. It “allmost” never does.
138 no lympics, A half a mill is still serious money to me, and all that freakin hassle whew,thats my interpretation of onerous. There are as you know several differant filings of ‘bankruptcy’ , not all are the ‘all or nothing, variety, it is often an admixture of debt consolidation, rate negotiation, rationalization and term repayment. That would explain how your friend got to ‘keep some assets’, in other words he couldn’t make his current payments so the trustee developed a payment plan for him. In fact it’s easy enough to do this yourself without the trustee, but sometimes it doesn’t work out and even minimum payments are at odds with a persons ability to pay.
126 , It’s good to have nothing left when you have to declare bankruptcy, you’re chums will only find it more challenging credit wise when they want to expand themselves in life. A good credit rating is a real asset. 30K is chump change for most but a lot to some. Personally a 2 K credit limit wouldn’t get me the tanning time I need.
And aren’t some of you getting it that SuprasillyBoy doesn’t exist outside a fantasy that this person is trying to act out in these postings?
152
X
blueskies Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 11:22 am
Is his product that good that he can ignore the rest of the market and still attract buyers ?
re: The Grace
the place was sold out long before the hole was dug in the ground…the site of the ol
Paladium and Graceland night club.
this is based on his reputation and savvy
i know several owners in the building and
they are quite happy. some got in at $325 /sq ft at the concept stage.
and thnx nolympics for your postings
and also realpaul, it is great to hear from those actually in the trenches
and scullboy… good rant re: supraboy
you’re cookin’ with gas….
…back to lurking!
153
X
betamax Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 11:24 am
“SuprasillyBoy doesn’t exist outside a fantasy that this person is trying to act out in these postings?”
Exactly. He’s akin to John but slightly less obvious. No one could be so stupid as to imagine that ‘rich Chinese’ will somehow prop up already plummeting prices across the GVRD. It’s Mike Stewart or Dave or one of the other malcontent realtors with too much time on his hands. Pity him; he just looks ridiculous.
154
X
Anonymous Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 11:30 am
“And aren’t some of you getting it that SuprasillyBoy doesn’t exist outside a fantasy that this person is trying to act out in these postings?”
actually he reminds me a lot of Rob A, only more pleased with himself, and instead of being fixated with cafes, he’s fixated on rich chinese restaurants.
155
X
browntown Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 11:51 am
oh yaaah nutsters! yeah supraboy good lucks with supra! browntown used to drive pontiac 600SE ! my mother used to call it the “GOOSE”
156
X
observer Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 11:56 am
Let’s assume you have enough money to buy a house with cash and that you never sell. Then by buying rather than renting, you are making of profit equal to the rent you would have paid and the expenses you are paying to own (taxes, condo fees, etc). You can then calculate how much this profit is worth at this present time given estimates on inflation of rents and interest rates (see nice explanation by mohican/jesse).
If you pay more than this fundamental price, you aren’t making a profit. If you pay less, you are. The problem is, even now, most if not all asking prices are above this fundamental price.
The question is whether you should buy in such a case. In a bubble, there could be a case for doing so because you hope the property price will appreciate fast enough to make up for your loss, assuming you can sell before the bubble bursts.
What happens if prices are dropping or flat lining? It seems like there is no reason to buy from a financial point of view, because you aren’t making a profit from buying over renting and you can’t expect an uptick in re prices to lift you out of a loss situation.
I think one good thing which has emerged out of 2008 is that the mantra the re prices always go up has been broken. Before, one was bombarded by friends, family, coworkers, baristas, and media that you had to buy or be priced out forever, and any opinion to the contrary was denigrated.
This type of group think even happens to people who’s job is to think about these things, just look at
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.c.....ing-badly/.
Things have improved a lot, and hopefully, in 2009, we will continue to see more critical viewpoints of substance.
157
X
NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 11:59 am
“Supraboy”
U tooo Funny bwahhhhaaaahahahahaha
You seem to think many of us suffer from “Rich Asian envy”.
I too go to Asian Malls…and line up at places to eat *but NO Tsingtao beer)
Why ???
‘Cause its dam good food and even better it is dirt CHEAP !!! In fact, I will probably be there today getting my choice of 4 heaping dishes (No MSG!!) for $15 !!!
Yesss !!!!
Also:
Asian culture is to get the hell out of the house and window shop/eat out….it is cheap entertainment, so don’t equate presence in malls with dust off the wallets (ie spending), bad correlation.
My family were WW II refugees…lost everything, came with nothing, but established roots and done quite well, some wealthy, most middle -class , but not one on welfare. That has been the historical norm in Canada etc. up until mid 1980’s, whereby one worked one’s way up the economic ladder.
However, I don’t have any problem with Rich Asians… but let’s keep things in perspective.
Just like the proverbial land making machine, how many “Rich Asians” are there ACTUALLY out there really ( or how many more Rich Asians can they make ???).
Is our current and future economic well- being actually dependent on Rich Asians?
Keep in mind the wealthiest Asians have established here years ago. Many of them sold small Honk Kong apartments for $1 Million + and came here and saw they could buy a house for about $200,000 on average . Then the local market took advantage of this cash influx and RE prices ramped up, ( probably with the now – starving Realturds whispering in their ears , creating bidding wars and inflating RE prices) .
Why don’t you do a spot check on recent Asian investment? Many have pooled their funds to buy that RE asset(many names on title).
Many actually have mortgages from HSBC etc.
I also seem to recall that the Gov’t relaxed the immigration requirements and allowed Real Estate investment to classify as a legitimate investment , become an “investor immigrant” which then allowed them to immigrate to Canada. In my view that was a bad idea, it ultimately leads to speculation, no long term jobs are created(only cyclical construction jobs and realturd egos ) and was the early seed for the RE bubble.
A lot of Asian investment has thus been speculative, based on returns from flipping. Even the big boys like Concord Pacific got caught with their pants down as this long overdue bursting of the RE bubble . Tens of thousands of Chinese factories have shut down. The “Rich Asian producing factory ” will thus shut down.
Fancy cars?
Yesterday a few of us were musing about these. One guy stated that his friend has spent more on maintaining his Mercedes than the original cost.
Fancy cars like Merecedes and BMW etc are like Opinions …..everone seems to have one…. hence it dilutes their so called status – symbol (and how many are actually leased ?)
In my view the Rich Asian cash cow has dried up.
It’s too bad that BC got addicted to these fickle unpredictable mystery offshore funds “often no questions asked” , because one day the Golden Goose quits or simply becomes a dead duck.
How much of this so called “wealth” was created profiting from sweatshop factories in one’s home country producing melamine -infested products and toys containing lead paint, etc ?
Many of those Rich Asians that came must be near retirement now. If and when their children inherit their assets…often it gets pissed away by the 2nd or 3rd generation. Back to $10-15 /hour jobs .
PS Welcome to Western Culture !!!.
158
X
Supraboy Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 12:28 pm
“In my view the Rich Asian cash cow has dried up.”
Wrong, it’s just the beginning. China’s still a country trying to modernize. I guess you haven’t been to China before. When the so-called recession is out of the way, you can sit there and watch the Chinese reload and jack up prices even more.
“I also seem to recall that the Gov’t relaxed the immigration requirements and allowed Real Estate investment to classify as a legitimate investment , become an “investor immigrant” which then allowed them to immigrate to Canada. In my view that was a bad idea, it ultimately leads to speculation, no long term jobs are created(only cyclical construction jobs and realturd egos ) and was the early seed for the RE bubble”
How does speculation occur from allowing more immigrants in? They need a place to stay and they’ll be bringing in more money. It’s population growth and investments that lifts the economy. Unless they’re all lining up collecting welfare or EI, then the housing markets would tank, but even if they’re collecting government money, that money will still be spent back into the economy.
“Asian culture is to get the hell out of the house and window shop/eat out…”
That stimulates the economy. If they’re always going out, they’ll be spending on gas, food, and anything that they’re buying. When they go out to eat, they’re making restaurant owners richer which leads to more real estate buying by the restaurant owners. Get the cycle? Waiters pocket more cash. I’ve seen Chinese waiters making $15/hour paying off BMWs all cash, why? because they work for cash, on top of that, they don’t get taxed on tips.
“One guy stated that his friend has spent more on maintaining his Mercedes than the original cost. ”
My dad has 2 Mercedes. One of them costs around $125k, I don’t think he’d spend more than $125k to maintain the car.
159
X
arit Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 12:34 pm
Nolympics:
“How much of this so called “wealth” was created profiting from sweatshop factories in one’s home country producing melamine -infested products and toys containing lead paint, etc ?”
Indeed. And in addition, think about this: Mainland China is/was a communist country. In communism, there are no (SUPPOSEDLY) rich people. But we see rich Chinese here (it is hard to say who is really rich and who is faking it – but I know a few who are really rich).
How did they become rich???
There is only one obvious answer – corruption, big time.
So some immigrants have to pass a point system of education, language, health and a few other to be accepted – and some can just bring stolen money.
The American motto was “Bring me your tired, your poor…”
The Canadian: “Bring me your best OR your thieves.”
“Many of those Rich Asians that came must be near retirement now. If and when their children inherit their assets…often it gets pissed away by the 2nd or 3rd generation. Back to $10-15 /hour jobs .”
And the second generation go and buy Supras and 2000$ action figures…
Best regards,
arit
160
X
Strataman Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 12:34 pm
Supraboy “I also bet not too many of you go down to Richmond to check out parking lots in the malls,” ????
And pretty well proves who is?? 
Well other than the fact that that would be about the lowest stupidest way I could think of to spend one second of my life, that pretty well sums up why bears are not idiots!
161
X
NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 12:35 pm
“Rent” ? versus “Own” ?:
Actually it all boils down to various degrees of RENTING .
Just like a High School Teacher once boiled down “Life Insurance” as an actuarial ” bet” placed against the policy holder by the Insurer as to how long the policy holder will actually live.
Even the world’s richest person ultimately “rents”…when they die someone ELSE owns it…aka
—-Life = a sexually- transmitted disease that is terminal resulting in death …
—No one gets out alive…
—You can’t take it with you.
If you purchase a residence, the mortgage is, in essence, a RENT to OWN contract to the Banks.
You only “own” it if you make the last rental payment.
If you don’t make the last rental (which is instead dressed up and classified as “mortgage” payment), it is simply rent that has allowed you to stay to that point and not be foreclosed on by the Bank, and thus you may not be able own it “free and clear” with full ownership title .
However:
In the brave new economy , based on RE bubble…IF it will take you 40 years to pay off the “RENT to OWN” option for something that prognosticators are predicting may lose 50% or more in market value within the next year or two…but the “RENT -ONLY “- but- NOT- own -OPTION , with what may be a Renters “pick and choose” market. Thus, one can save the difference between “Rent only” and “Rent/Mortgage Payments” for future “Cash IS King” purchases…so the choice is pretty clear, isn’t it?
ie Ignore the old RealTurd mantra to buy buy buy …that is OLD news/OLD rules no longer rational nor relevant in our current economic circumstances .
PS the only other suggestion is to have the OPTION I repeat the O-P-T-I-O-N to apply “RENT Only” to a negotiated purchase price, but the option to bail as well.
Many owners will offer this sort of deal in lean economic times to renter/purchaers in order to extricate themselves , it can work out to the best and better interests of both sides.
162
X
blueskies Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 12:38 pm
supraboy:
the very fact that YVR RE prices are now tanking blows your “rich asian” theories right outa the water….
they are not buying and neither are the “white” folk…. there are no buyers.
something to consider
also in regards to crowded restaurants i live in YT
and there are 181 sushi
restaurants within 15 min. walk of here… the good ones always have line ups because it is really good cheap food…
163
X
arit Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 12:48 pm
I see many of us are stuck at home today. Nothing better to do than read the RE blogs.
Who’s up for a surprise not-planned-just-get-out-of-mommy’s-basement bear meeting for coffee at Richmond Center today at 15:00?
Regards
arit
164
X
Econ Student Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 12:50 pm
Blueskies:
The whole convoluted pitch was:
“See we sold the Oxford Mansion, and the bottom is close, and in 12 to 24 months we will have another boom, so you better give me a call and get in soon before it’s too late.”
165
X
blueskies Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 12:57 pm
EconStudent:
rob has gone over to the dark side
the bottom line:
the realtor/vendor sets the price
the buyer sets the value
a property is only worth what someone is willing and able to
pay for it…….
all the blogfroth in the world
will not change this
166
X
bdk Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 12:57 pm
Arit, we’d be into that but how are the roads outside of downtown vancouver?
We had to go to my parents’ house ,in the westside, for Christmas and the snow was at the wheel wells (of my leased bmw which makes me rich come to think of it).
167
X
realpaul Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 1:09 pm
#156
http://www.canadian-housing-pr.....NGTERM.gif
You can look at this chart and see where & when the inflation was created in the money markets. This artificial manipulation of intrest rates and increased printing of money (M3)created a real estate bubble, pretty simple.
If you draw a straight line across the chart from 2000 and simply cut the top line of the curve off you quickly see what is going to happen to prices, at least from an analytical perspective. This deflation as it is referred to is expected to impact every consumer product including wages , auto’s and real estate.
The market (every market) has periods of what is referred to as ” a reversion to the mean”, the mean average on this chart shows you that it (vanc real estate longer term established values)lies around the $340K mark or roughly back to 1990. You can see from the information that long term support is within a range of somewhere above $300,000K per average SFH in Vanc.
Analysts and investors ( from this perspective) are EXPECTING an approx 55% drop in prices from current levels. From an investment perspective we expect the pendulum to swing back further ( dependant on the epicentric investment philosophy I posted in an earlier string) to reflect the increasing negative sentiment and imploding access to credit facility globally.
Superimpose/Template this chart over any market correction in any area historically and be surprised to see the corelation.
The ‘failed experiment’ (as it is being called) by governments of ‘the Greenspan era’ trying to create a false economy is causing markets around the world to ‘revert to the mean’ in other words things are going back to where they would have been prior to the intervention. People around the world are having at least 50% of thier net worth ‘evaporated’ because of failed government economic policies.
I just got back from the Orient and there are violent riots by people being displaced from urban jobs in CHINA , THAILAND AND VIETNAM, THERE ARE MASS LAYOFFS IN iNDIA AND SINGAPORE.. The reporting is slim out of China but it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to know that the really bad shit hasn’t happened yet, it’s just building up momentum.
The article posted by No – lympics in an earlier page was spot on. Very difficult, dry reading but spot on all the same. It points out that reality will be what it is and not what you want it to be and details all the reasons why. Sticking your head in the sand doesn’t make the boogoe man go away.
168
X
NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 1:25 pm
Supraboy:
Shhhhh;(and bwhahahahaha for some more funny trolling)
FYI…those waiters you “allege” are getting paid (i) Cash and (ii) Tips that allow them to buy BMW’s will be prime targets for the Revenue Canada audit sweep. Revenue Canada will be out their like sharks….and they actually have data that ASSUMES a certain amount of tips for service industry …NO such things as “Tips don’t exist” to Revenue Canada. “BMW driving waiters” doesn’t add up.
Sorry….but inflated RE prices really benefit no one in the long term. It sets the foundation for a bubble.
The Rich Asians could have formed an OPEC cartel and refused to pay an inflated RE price…they were obviously herded like scared rabbits to get their money out of Hong Kong, they clearly didn’t understand our local economy and what ” Fair Market value” was.
The Rich Asians were even giving special fees (ie literal “tips”) to realtors on top of Commissions , a H.K. custom (a realtor I know told me this was happening till the Real Estate board caught wind of it and stopped it. ) The now -crying Realturds simply played the Rich Asians for suckers. As the saying goes, you don’t get rich cutting cheques.., so other dynamics/tactics were used to separate Rich Asians from their $$$.
That also attracts all sorts of money laundering,etc. How many corrupt officials and other major crooks has Canada let stay hear for years without extradition ? Canada’s overall justice system is a frikkin Joke !!!
From what I read, China is not producing more “Rich Asians”.
The Chinese economy is in turmoil.
China effectively “imported” our North American manufacturing sector, but was dependent on the Western World as its customers. However, China will continue to be a controlled economy…unless something major changes it will never have a large Middle Class,as that implies Democracy and hence a purge of Communism.
NOT going to happen.
Thus China will not have much of an internal economy to be self -reliant and less dependent on exports.
Thus, if the Western Economies go down …..China goes down, and most certainly will produce less Rich Asians, (and those exisitng ones may become poor Asians).
ALSO:
I am actually surpised that Revenue Canada never nailed those RE investors that outright cheated on their Capital Gains taxes. So many SF homes were bought that had the usual mail (ie utility bills, phone bills etc. aka “evidence” )sent to an investment property, to give the illusion of “Prinicpal Residence”, but never lived in.
169
X
scullboy Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 1:26 pm
Ah Supra, I just love you. You’re Satv and Browntown except in English.
I’d reply point by point, but honestly, what would be the point? I’d rather just point and laugh.
If you really did rack up six figures in savings in five years as you claim, you can only have done it one way: by living with Mommy and Daddy. You’re not even a renter, are you? You’re an “I don’t have enough independence to live on my own so I’m living in the basement” Millennial. It actually explains things brilliantly. YOu’ve experienced so little you still have that naive veneer of invincibility.
You’re working a low level sysadmin job as a contractor. Your ass is sooooooo doomed.
I dunno. Cal me silly, but my experience with Chinese restaurants and dim sum is they are popular because they’re dirt cheap. If I were a millionaire or a “rich Asian” I think I’d be dining somewhere a little more….. upscale. Or I’d have a private chef prepare meals to order.
As for me and my travels, let’s just say that you make assumptions and then convince yourself that they are fact.
Look, I *almost* can’t point and laugh any more mainly because it’s just too easy so I’m going to be sincere and give you a little feedback:
It’s plain that you’re making most things about yourself up. Nobody here believes you were a senior programmer. Many of us have worked with those sorts of people and they usually make a minimum of 100 bucks an hour as contractors. Nobody here believes you’re in the market for “another” property because it’s plain that you neither own nor rent. You may have done some traveling and that’s find too, but you don’t seem to be very good at risk assessment and you seem like the kind of traveller to whom most foreigners would attack the sobriquet “loudmouth foreigner”.
You’ve given your opinion and I think it’s safe to say everyone here has given it the consideration it deserves. You should probably shut up now, because honestly, you’re just embarrassing yourself.
Seriously. We’ve seen your type before. Do yourself a huge favour and go for a walk or something. It will do you a world of good.
170
X
arit Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 1:28 pm
bdk
Richmond is drivable. I’ll be anyways in Richmond center food court at 3 with mobile internet access. Anyone coming just type it here in the blog before you leave home.
Regards
arit
171
X
jesse Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 1:30 pm
“Many of those Rich Asians that came must be near retirement now. If and when their children inherit their assets…often it gets pissed away by the 2nd or 3rd generation.”
There’s an old Chinese proverb: 富不过三代 “Wealth does not pass three generations”
172
X
NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 1:40 pm
Arit:
Thanks for the “meet for coffee” offer, maybe another time.
(BTW : I have a suspicion Supraboy is Li Kai Shing or Terry Hui, and maybe we could compare notes).
Been trying to watch the NFL playoffs at the same time as blogging……my Dolphins choked today dammit…. ( but the Cards and the Chargers didn’t ).
2 out of 3 ain’t bad… I am on a roll !!!
173
X
NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 2:34 pm
From NY Times
“Credit Card Companies Willing to Deal Over Debt ”
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01.....ct.html?em
QUOTE:
Banks and card companies are bracing for a wave of defaults on credit card debt in early 2009, and they are vying with each other to get paid first. Besides, the sooner people get their financial houses in order, the sooner they can start borrowing again.
So even as many banks cut consumers’ credit lines, raise card fees and generally pull back on lending, some lenders are trying to give customers a little wiggle room. Bank of America, for instance, says it has waived late fees, lowered interest charges and, in some cases, reduced loan balances for more than 700,000 credit card holders in 2008.
===============================
There is a saying about if you owe the bank a small amount , YOU have a problem , but if you owe the bank a lot of money, the BANK is the one with the problem.
QUOTE:
“Consumers have never been in a better position to negotiate a partial payment,” said Robert D. Manning, the author of “Credit Card Nation” and a longtime critic of the credit card industry. “It’s like that old movie ‘Rosalie Goes Shopping.’ When it’s $100,000 of debt, it’s your problem. When it’s a million dollars of debt, it’s the bank’s problem.”
=============================================
In my continued extrapolation of the theme that, (in these current economic times and with so much Fiat money floating around), one should think of things as more inverted ie ” is the glass 1/2 full or half empty ” (as the economy and its fundamentals got so bloody perverted), single debtors or an organized group of debtors may have more leverage power than the lenders.
The absolute last thing the lenders wants to see is a debtor declaring bankruptcy, hence E-V-E-R-Y-T-H-I-N-G is NEGOTIABLE(ie terms , conditions,…… Pay a % of the total debt versus zero ).
In other words…
Your perceived weakness may now actually be your new strength .
174
X
CZ Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 2:41 pm
Rich Chinese Classification and Demographic
As a lot of people talking about rich Asians, which mainly referring to the rich Chinese, I would like to share some info with your guys:
——–
Classification – there are following types of rich Chinese. Here I define RICH by million dollars CDN assets or more:
1 – Rich HongKong businessmen. They mainly arrived in the 90s to de-risk the China takeover in 1997. There are a lot of them, but they have settled down long time ago (some of them are back to HongKong already) and not active enough in the YVR RE.
2 – Rich Mainland businessmen. There are some of them, with mostly clean money. Some Chinese celebrities are included in this category. They have been immigrated over to YVR in recent 10 years. The total number is not huge. Some of them have only half the family here – also de-risk any possible hassles in the business in China, as well as provide their kids with better education resource here. They are also called “flying men” as they commute on weekly/monthly basis.
3 – Corrupted mainland officials or their (half) families (sometimes they may have more than one family/wife, of course that is illegal). There are some, but they are very sneaky. Usually they hide themselves from the public, and not willing to demonstrate wealth by McMansions. They are not very active on VYR RE either. Their cash may even buried in their back yard or under the mat.
4 – Possible some money laundry gangs. No idea what they are doing. But likely they would be active on the YVR RE for washing the dirty money. I believe the total number is very small.
——–
Demographic – there are some communities with higher percentage of those people:
For #1 – West Richmond and Vancouver West are the main habitats. Some very rich ones are in West Vancouver.
For #2 – Vancouver West and North Vancouver.
For #3 – Some in West/North Van, and some in north Coquitlam in the mountain.
For #4 – no idea.
——–
The total number of the rich Chinese in my guts feeling, is no more than 10% of the total local Chinese population. Let’s say there are 100,000 Chinese in lower mainland ( I don’t have the detailed number), the total of them would be around 10K, with the #1 takes the most share (more than half). The rest 90% of common Chinese immigrants are just like your guys, work hard for their living, by either tech jobs or labor ones. They were one of the main sources of victims during the bubble by the propaganda trolling of “buy, buy, buy quick, otherwise you’ll be priced out forever”.
Regardless what happens to Chinese/Asian economy in 2009, I don’t see it has any tight relation of the claim that the rich Asian can boost/hold the VYR RE.
————
BTW, I am dinning out frequently, because of the Chinese motto – 民以食为天 ( food is the most important part of life for common people – isn’t it true?). This may contribute to the local economy, but it has nothing to do with my wealthiness, as long as I can afford it.
175
X
CZ Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 3:35 pm
The rich businessman has a reason to become rich in the first place. Excluding those from inheritance, most rich businessmen becoming rich because they are shrewd.
As I listed the #1/#2 types in post #174, the businessmen could be the main possible interested buyers of the VYR RE. But they are smart enough to not be trapped into the bubble, and if they invest in the RE, they may also back out when investment margin is not as good as other types of investment, such as stocks in China. In that case, a booming Asian economy might be a source of bad news to VYR RE, instead a positive push, given the current ridiculous sale price and downward trend down the road in next a few years.
176
X
Disbelief Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 4:00 pm
Phnom Penh is a Vietnamese/Cambodian restuarant not chinese food. Supraboi probably is the waiter at said restaurant. Making lease payments on BMW trying to look the part. If I lived in mommies basement it wouldn’t be too hard to look rich. But us caucasians don’t live like that all together in one house, I think we would kill each other if we did.
177
X
Supraboy Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 4:12 pm
“It’s plain that you’re making most things about yourself up. Nobody here believes you were a senior programmer. Many of us have worked with those sorts of people and they usually make a minimum of 100 bucks an hour as contractors. Nobody here believes you’re in the market for “another” property because it’s plain that you neither own nor rent. You may have done some traveling and that’s find too, but you don’t seem to be very good at risk assessment and you seem like the kind of traveller to whom most foreigners would attack the sobriquet “loudmouth foreigner”.”
Hey Scullboy, you’re so easy to pick on, it’s not even funny. 100 bucks an hour as contractor? We’re not in the US, this is Vancouver. How do you know whether I’m a sysadmin or senior programmer? You’re right, I could be making things up, but that doesn’t mean I’m lying to you if I’m making $50/hour. That’s a fair price for contracting. How do you know I’m not ready to buy another house? You are assuming so much, you’re a laughing joke. I’ve been writing up facts and you’re talking trash.
About the Chinese going to a more “upscale” fine dining restaurant and hiring private chefs, I think you’re the one blowing smoke. You’re not a Chinese so you don’t know anything at all about Chinese. I’m Chinese and most of my friends are loaded living in the West Side while you shovel snow all day in Aldergrove or Abbotsford where all the bums live. I’ve been saying all along, I hope the real estate markets will crash, therefore, you can’t really call me a bull. I’m not a bear either, since I’m only “hoping” for a drop, I’m sticking to what I see out there. What I see is what I get, Asians are out shopping, whenever I see condos for sale, I always see Japanese and Koreans lining up loading up 4-5 units.
Asians can sit through downturns. Most of the Asians that I know of, they have no problems handling their mortgage even if they paid +1million for their property.
178
X
realpaul Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 4:15 pm
Thanks for the offer arit; no time on the weekends.
179
X
Supraboy Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 4:19 pm
“As for me and my travels, let’s just say that you make assumptions and then convince yourself that they are fact. ”
I try not to make assumptions about your travels but you made it sound like you don’t know anything about South America. You started talking about kidnappings, extortions, etc…you sound like a chicken who’s hiding at home since you were born, so typical of Canadians. Hopping on an airplane for you sounds like a once in a lifetime experience. It’s not my fault for assuming things about you when you go right ahead bashing South America. I’m sick and tired of people saying how dangerous it is going to the middle east and south america. That’s a complete joke. Nobody’s telling you to go to Iraq walking around in the middle of Bagdad or going to Venezuela dancing outside the city of Caracas. I have friends in Bogota and friends who have been in Bogota and they really love it there. Do you even know where Bogota is? Go turn to CNN and listen to their propaganda, perhaps your next trip will be to Hawaii where it’s safe and cosy. Follow the masses! Haaaaawaiiiiiii!!!!!
180
X
Anonymous Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 4:25 pm
It is best to live in the parent’s basement. People who do have at least two advantages. 1) They have good relationship with their parents and 2) They save lots of money over the people who move out early.
181
X
NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 4:29 pm
CZ:
Having growning up in the Lower Mainland and seen this Asian boom first hand, and vividly recalling the early 1980’s RE crash , I will share my notes:
My school classes were by and large, approx. 70-80 % Caucasian…with a few visible minoriites (ie mostly Chinese, Japanese, East Indian, and most of these were born in Canada, many 3rd generation).
They were all fluent in English, very Westernized ..no ESL then
We all played together and hung -out,….we lived in basically 3 housing types…1 story Bungalow/rancher, or Split Level…or 2 storey home. /… Max. 2400 sq.ft.
When the Hong Kong aka “Rich Asians” came over…they rarely ever settled in those aforementioned houses… they (or should I say Spec Builders)began to demolish them and build 5000-6000 sq. ft McMansions.
The reason they did ??? was because they could !!!….
Many don’t realize that many Local Gov’t SFH zonings allowed for this latent McMansion size of homes…and had for decades….its just that the domestic market could only support aka “afford” homes approx. 2400 sq. ft or less.
The Spec Builders saw all this offshore money coming and flogged this McMansion excessiveness to the Rich Asians, many of whom only had say a family of 4-5 people. Prior to 1986, most builders I knew were still building basic variations of the basic Vancouver Specials, ie 2500 sq.ft.
With very few exceptions..the McMansions (in non -Browntown areas )are synonymous with Rich Asian immigrants. OR, a few of those older homes bought within the last 20 years are also owned by Rich Asians who could pay the inflated post Expo 86 RE prices.
As an example :
Richmond own statistics state that visible minorities(translates into a mostly Chinese demographic) make -up the majority (ie over 50%) of the current Richmond population of approx. 180,000. That is already over 90,000 people just re: Richmond.
Modern – day School Class pictures show a radical shift from say 80 % Caucasian to maybe 10 % Caucasian (and now mostly Chinese). That is not due to older established 2nd or 3rd generation Chinese. Simply stand near a school parking lot and watch the BMW , Mercedes ,Lexus, Range Rovers etc.etc. dropping off their kids .
On eothe robservation; Chinse owners are rarely seen, tend to stay indoors,or simply “appear” to be vacant and dead of activity …. whereas other homes owned by parties from a number of diverse backgrounds tend to be a revolving hub of activity.
The Rich Asians didn’t want to go to old Chinatown…they re-invented it in Richmond(ie Yaohan, Aberdeen, etc.)and other areas.
Most of the people I went to school with, whether they be Caucasian, Chinese, Japanese, East Indian, couldn’t afford to live in their own home town even before the Rich Asians immigrated here.
Those are my notes
182
X
Anonymous Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 4:33 pm
Supraboy,
You are retarded. Don’t generalize the people in Richmond you retard. Most Asians in Vancouver don’t flip homes. Only stupid people like yourself flip homes. Real Estate is a dumb investment.
183
X
realpaul Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 4:41 pm
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/.....refer=home
It’s important to have a global overview of the current situation in order to develop a local perspective. No -lympics posting of the Pinnacle development collapse in richmond is another ( but excellent)example of how ‘the smart money’ is looking at the situation.
If these very smart guys are looking 3-5 years out ( that what it would take to build a 16 tower dev)and seeing a continuation of a bleak outlook you have to wonder what is coming down Main Street.
How mch economic generation ( carpenters to restaurants and carpet layers and importes etc you get the drift)has been lost just in the local projects around you. What is the economic effect of ten thousand units not being built.
Thats close to the number of units shelved this past year in Vancouver. Thousands of units may not be completed and thousands remain unsold. What of the rest of Canada? Now look at whats happening in China , the US, Europe all cascading down? Do you think it doesn’t effect you? Don’t be silly.
I just watched a news piece out of Hong Kong on of how animal shelters are being swamped with pets because owners are not able to feed them anymore. Nobodys safe, it has only started, there will be many casualties yet to come.
184
X
MickeyFinn Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 4:46 pm
I feel compelled to weigh in on the discussion regarding the ability of rich Asians to affect the Vancouver real estate market.
Let me say at the outset that I am not of Asian ancestry. That said, I do speak from experience as regards rich Asian businessman as I have spent the past fourteen years working for some exceptionally wealthy Asian businessman.
The gentlemen I work for are not only extraordinary businessmen and exceptional business strategists (with a proven ability to make fortune upon fortune) but they are also philanthropists, having given more money to worthwhile charitable causes than I could ever hope to earn. And yes, they have made incredible amounts of money in real estate.
The main points I would add to this discussion are:
1) there are a great many more wealthy Asians added to the world’s list of wealthy people as each month goes by, and
2) wealthy Asians know real estate. I would go further and say that “real estate development” and “real estate investing” is in their blood.
Rupert Hoogewerf, who started compiling a rich list while working for Forbes Magazine and now sells his own independent list notes that back in 1999, when he started his list, it took $6 million to get on the China Top 50. By 2007 it takes $100 million. According to Hoogewerf, most of today’s Chinese rich are young, self-made entrepreneurs who made their money in real estate.
But I have been a real estate bear as regards Vancouver’s real estate market for a couple of years… and a big part of my bearish opinion stems from what I believe is a ticking time bomb of real estate held by Asian investors… not from the gentlemen I work for but from the “average Asian multi-millionaire” who has bought into the Vancouver real estate market as a hedge or as a basic investment.
As I have noted in this forum before, I have seen first-hand the large numbers of Vancouver condos sold to off-shore investors. Somewhat akin to what CZ suggests in post #174, years ago it was Hong Kong investors, who couldn’t believe how cheap Vancouver real estate was in comparison to Hong Kong’s prices. However, that has changed to include plenty of investors from Taiwan and Korea and most recently (as in say the past seven years) it also includes large numbers of Mainland Chinese investors who may also have been motivated to “park” some of their new found wealth outside of China for emergencies (read: just in case the regime decides to revisit the Cultural Revolution).
Before I ramble too much I should get to my point… I see the large base of off-shore ownership in the Vancouver market as a ticking time bomb because these non-resident investors will “dump” their Vancouver real estate if they need to meet a margin call back home. As I mentioned, they know real estate and they know that it does not go up forever… and as they see that the Vancouver market is imploding they will dump Vancouver real estate for whatever price it will bear.
We have seen this before, during the winter of 98-99 which had followed a collapse of the Hong Kong stock market (which was in-turn precipitated by the Thai Currency crisis). At that time, I watched a couple of SFH’s on Vancouver’s West side which sold for around 50% of their tax assessments because their off-shore owners had to sell FAST.
The current reality is that Asia is hurting just like the rest of the world and that will put pressure on some of them to sell their Vancouver real estate. In fact, I am hearing of some recent sales at drastically depressed prices which I believe are exactly what I have described above: off-shore investors who are forced to sell fast.
185
X
Supraboy Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 4:50 pm
#182
“Supraboy,
You are retarded. Don’t generalize the people in Richmond you retard. Most Asians in Vancouver don’t flip homes. Only stupid people like yourself flip homes. Real Estate is a dumb investment.”
So “Real Estate is a dumb investment.” Look who’s generalizing there. You just shoved your own foot up your mouth. Need I say more?
186
X
Weary Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 4:53 pm
I am a longtime lurker, first time commenter to this website. I really enjoy the articles and commentary on this blog, and I am so grateful that I found it before we went ahead with our plan to buy a condo last fall. It is refreshing to read that choosing to rent is nothing to be ashamed of. However, I am growing so weary of how this one, obviously imbalanced poster, Supraboy, is distracting all of the smart posters from their usual informative and insightful comments. Can’t all of you show the same discipline that you have shown with resisting the mainstream message to buy, in resisting the urge to respond to his provocative posts? It was funny at first, but now it is just so wearying to read. Please, please just turn your back on him and refuse to respond to anything he writes. I suppose I could just skip reading the comments pages, but they are usually the best part!
187
X
ant Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 4:54 pm
Rich asians do know real estate, more importantly they know the government has a printing press and a vested interest in ongoing immigration. Combined with what Vancouver has to offer it is no suprise they continue a clear interest in Vancouver investments. There are billions of asians, what we see here now is only the tip of the rich asian iceberg.
188
X
Supraboy Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 4:56 pm
“I see the large base of off-shore ownership in the Vancouver market as a ticking time bomb because these non-resident investors will “dump” their Vancouver real estate if they need to meet a margin call back home.”
I sort of agree with the ‘margin call’ back home but it has yet to occur. Some of the bank managers that I’ve talked to in Vancouver said the money will never trickle back to China. They said the Chinese don’t want to bring money back to China because they don’t trust the government. This is coming from the mouth of bank managers, not me.
I personally think the Chinese would want to rescue their investments back home and liquidate what they have in Vancouver. If I’m a business owner in China, that’s what I would do because the business is the bread and butter of my livelihood. That’s what I told the bank manager and he said I’m inexperienced and I know nothing. He said the Chinese will keep on shoving money into Vancouver. What do I know? All of you bears think I’m full of crap anyways.
189
X
ant Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 4:56 pm
Weary, you are not intelligent enough for any commenting whatsoever, go back to lurking.
190
X
ant Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 4:58 pm
I have to admit, Supraboy is right, which is why he is so unpopular now. shit.
191
X
Weary Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 5:01 pm
Ant, and personal attacks are always a sign of intelligence.
Peace out.
192
X
ant Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 5:07 pm
Weary, re-read your first post and then think how it relates to your second post. Then , oh forget it, I’m asking too much. Go back to sleep
193
X
realpaul Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 5:14 pm
Forget about a recovery any time soon
http://www.marketwatch.com/new.....A33AF39%7D
Asian equity falling fast and hard
Asia Recession
Half of Asia will probably be in recession this year as a $700 billion drop in export earnings causes economies in Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan to shrink, according to Macquarie Group Ltd.
Japanese corporate earnings may extend their slump after the yen rose against all major currencies in 2008 and eroded the value of exports. Credit Suisse Group AG estimates earnings will be weakest in the first half at carmakers, machinery producers and technology companies.
Japanese automakers are slashing output, jobs and profit forecasts as the global recession deters consumers from buying new cars and sport-utility vehicles. Toyota Motor Corp., Japan’s biggest automaker, last month predicted its first operating loss in 71 years for this fiscal year because of the slump and a stronger yen.
Vehicle demand from emerging markets, where automakers had counted on sales shoring up collapsing demand in the U.S., Europe and Japan, is also likely to decline as fallout from the credit crunch and economic slump spread, said Song Sang Hoon, a Seoul- based analyst at Kyobo Securities Co.
No Immunity
“No one will be immune from this downturn. It’s time to see who’s losing least, not who’s winning more,” he said.
Among technology companies, Tokyo-based Sony Corp. will begin eliminating 16,000 jobs as the slump undermines sales of Bravia televisions and Cyber-shot digital cameras. Panasonic Corp. is projecting profit in the year ending March 31 will be 90 percent lower than previously anticipated.
Asian banks will grapple with falling earnings and rising defaults on loans this year as economies from China to Australia slow, prompting central banks to slash interest rates, said Tim Rocks, an Asian equities strategist at Macquarie in Hong Kong.
Lenders in Japan, Australia, Singapore and South Korea raised money in the final quarter of 2008 after they escaped most of the initial writedowns and credit losses that forced U.S. and European rivals into government takeovers.
“This quarter and the first quarter ‘09 are just going to be really ugly quarters,” said Frederic Dickson, who helps manage about $19 billion at D.A. Davidson & Co. in Lake Oswego, Oregon. “It’s just going to take a long time to get confidence restored.”
194
X
Weary Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 5:16 pm
Arit, Ant, thank you for being so welcoming to a longtime reader and fan of VCI.
I didn’t realize it was a private club, my mistake, won’t make it again.
195
X
bdk Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 5:21 pm
#194 Weary you are right.
Arit didn’t criticize you.
Trolls intentionally drag blogs off topic by pretending to be naive (like supraboy) and they get a kick out of it.
It will go away if we all ignore it.
Of course if it comes up with a valid point about real estate then we can discuss it but right now I don’t even think he/she lives in Vancouver and obviously doesn’t know a thing about real estate so it should be ignored, just like the nutjob religious wacko’s that ramble on street corners.
196
X
jesse Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 5:23 pm
Weary’s still getting all the +1s. Don’t feed the trolls.
197
X
es Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 5:30 pm
MickeyFinn:
If rich asians are propelling the market, that would explain upward pressure on high end cement boxes, but how would it translate to high prices in Surrey and east van leaky condos?
198
X
CZ Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 5:31 pm
NO -LYMPICS,
I was probably wrong on the total number of Chinese population in YVR. What I defined Chinese as the immigrants from recent 20 years. The old timer immigrants are already becoming bananas – only the skin are yellow. I should have made it clear in the previous post.
The Stats Canada says average around 30,000 immigrants from Mainland China each year moved to Canada since 1998, with less than a quarter parked at lower mainland. that is the main part of the Chinese immigrants – around 75K. The Hong Kong immigrants were peaked during 1991 to 1996 for a total about 30K. So my 100K number was referring to those people.
——–
MickeyFinn,
A lot of people got rich in China because of Chinese RE, true, which is totally different from Canadian RE. The Chinese RE is mainly a local government controlled land privatization with black market under the hook of communist administration. It is mainly a trade between the corrupted officials’ power and wicked speculators/smugglers (like Mr. Lai). There are a lot of them fallen down already when some other related bribery stories go public.
Those rich guys may not be defined as shrewd businessmen, IMHO.
199
X
CZ Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 5:46 pm
Weary,
No one really criticized you and this is neither a private club. Some offensive words may be ignored, as long as there are argument points inside. Otherwise, they’ll be banned.
You are welcome on lurking or commenting – in my view, you have behaved decent enough.
200
X
Ladagirl Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 5:58 pm
Many in my home country of Trollistan immigrate to Vancouver.
Mostly we work in the race-baiting portion of the internet.
It’s easy work.
201
X
Communist Enterprise Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 6:06 pm
I guess if you repeat a lie often enough it becomes accepted as truth.
The idea of rich Chinese fleeing China in fear of the communist taking away their money is so stupid only Vancouverites could believe.
Get this straight people. If you are Chinese and you have a lot of money, you are in one way or another closely aligned or related or you own a few bureaucrats.
202
X
Supraboy Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 6:18 pm
“Trolls intentionally drag blogs off topic by pretending to be naive (like supraboy) and they get a kick out of it.
It will go away if we all ignore it.”
You know why you guys are so offended by me and now you call me a troll? Because you guys are very one-sided.
I’m not a full-fledged bull. I already stated earlier that I expect more downside on real estate, but the problem is the asians in Vancouver are not willing to lower the listing prices and they are going to hold on to their property no matter what since they can afford the mortgage payments.
If they can hang on to their property while all the coordinated efforts by world governments propping up the markets take effect, their property prices will rise and you will see a new cycle of stagflation.
203
X
Supraboy Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 6:22 pm
“The idea of rich Chinese fleeing China in fear of the communist taking away their money is so stupid only Vancouverites could believe.
Get this straight people. If you are Chinese and you have a lot of money, you are in one way or another closely aligned or related or you own a few bureaucrats. ”
You are right and wrong. If you talk to the Chinese people who have immigrated here recently, they want nothing to do with China. They’d rather live in a hell hole than go back to China. On the other hand, there are those who have businesses in China and they are willing to liquidate their overseas assets just to save their own hide.
There is also the diversification scenario where they own properties in China, Canada, Singapore and Australia. They will try to hang on to their properties and will pick and choose the weakest link to liquidate when push comes to shove.
204
X
ant Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 6:26 pm
I’ve registered as a user, will that stop jackasses from posting under my name?
The last several posts have NOT been by me, I thought about changing my ID, but screw that. Trolls buzz off. Weary and all other posters that choose to post on topic, you are welcome here. This is no private club, but your contribution is better appreciated when its on topic and true.
Someone posing as me has been trying to stir people up, its ironic that they are painting bears us ‘unhappy’ or easily offended. I couldn’t be happier about the market state, except that its entirely unnecessary. If people paid what a house was actually worth instead of following a herd into a get-rich-quick scheme that property values would remain reasonable instead of shooting up and then crashing down.
Think about how much paper wealth has evaporated over the last six months and how much that sucks for our economy. Hope you are all ready for 2009!
205
X
ant Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 6:29 pm
the problem is the asians in Vancouver are not willing to lower the listing prices and they are going to hold on to their property no matter what
Those people don’t matter if they don’t want to sell, the only thing that matters are people that want/need to sell and people that want/are able to buy.
People that want to see if there’s a sucker out there who will give them twice the market price on a house but don’t care to sell are just wasting everyones time and have no impact on the market except to make the total number of listing higher, making conditions worse for real sellers.
206
X
arit Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 6:29 pm
Weary,
Depending on your browser configuration, and your choice of fonts, you might be seeing the “n” and the “ri” similarly.
One poster is “ant”, the other is “arit”. Not the same, with all due respect to “ant”.
Best regards,
a-r-i-t
207
X
jesse Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 6:44 pm
“Those people don’t matter if they don’t want to sell, the only thing that matters are people that want/need to sell and people that want/are able to buy.”
I don’t see patriotz around so I’ll fill in. The buyer is the only one who sets the price. The seller is at the mercy of the highest offer.
208
X
realpaul Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 6:50 pm
meanwhile ho hum
http://www.prudentbear.com/ind.....lebulletin
209
X
jesse Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 6:53 pm
“making conditions worse for real sellers.”
Actually, I’d argue it makes conditions worse for everybody. Potential buyers have to rummage through these “unrealistic” listings and may even go to the trouble of making an offer that has no chance of being accepted. Realtors effectively waste their time showing these places since the chances of a sale are next to nil. Other sellers, as you say, have no way of differentiating except by way of list price. The actual seller has to go through the hassle of stagings and showings with close to zero chance of success.
Certainly it’s a secondary reason why potential buyers aren’t wasting their time looking right now. It takes to frigging long to weed through and second-guess the unrealistic listings.
210
X
CZ Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 6:57 pm
Supraboy,
I think I understand what you meant. Some illusion in the shopping centers and restaurants may hide the real facts in the economy, local and global.
While I am writing this, the CBC news “Sunday Night” is broadcasting the “wall street spindle”, to describe what happened, what are happening and what are going to happen. Some smart economists foresee all those craps, which will eventually affect our daily life. Some reference points may give you more insights – such as ilargi of the automatic earth, chirs martenson and peter schiff. You can google them to find more resources.
In short, I don’t think the government bailout will work (refer to the resources mentioned above), and I would guess what going to happen in 2009 in YVR:
1. Economy getting worse, as local industry suffers from the export decline and construction shrinkage. There is no real supporting industry for local economy.
2. Layoff will flood the street news. Jobless rate in lower mainland may hit to between 8% and 10% by the end of the year.
3. Canadian subprime will be start to burst. Delinquencies and defaults are increased to a historic high level, as Vancouerities already over-stretched too much over their financial balance.
4. One or two Canadian banks may suffer the result of bad economy and the subprime intensively – government will have to bailout those stupidity with our tax dollars.
5. Government can only do firefighting for saving their political life, not for common Joe, like you and me.
6. Local people investment mood will go down earth as confidence ruined totally.
7. Funny enough, the rich people are still relatively rich, they are the least affected people by the economic down-turn from life style point of view. Especially some of them has combination of investment from different markets and different fields. So they will still enjoy regular life style as before – driving BMW, dining fancy Dimsum, shopping brand clothes.
8. By the middle of 2009, we’ll start talking more layoffs, rental decrease in this blog. Buying a home is a too luxury topic for common salary people for a while.
Anyway, we’ll see. It’s good to be young and energetic – you can afford to make mistakes. But it cost…
211
X
alexcanuck Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 6:58 pm
“I buy three, and my husband buy three”
Yah, sophisticated and wealthy asians all right! Those are the typical investors in recent years. Now sitting on SIX condo’s due to complete soon.
Can’t be bothered to look up link, but that’s from a fairly recent CTV news clip on presale walk-aways. Featured here about a month ago. Anyone got it handy?
212
X
The asian myth Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 6:59 pm
“You are right and wrong. If you talk to the Chinese people who have immigrated here recently, they want nothing to do with China. They’d rather live in a hell hole than go back to China. “
That is irrelevant to my point. The fact remains, the so illusive super rich Asians did not create enough demand to put pressure on entry level homes.
The bubble was created by several factors, the rich Chinese buying up cheap particle board boxes is not one of them.
213
X
The asian myth Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 7:02 pm
“I buy three, and my husband buy three”
I saw that clip, if that is a personification of sophisticated rich Asian money keeping Vancouver on the world stage, I’m afraid we are in a world of hurt
214
X
blueskies Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 7:23 pm
“I buy three, and my husband buy three”
that clip was from 2004 when Bob Rennie was flogging the Yaletown Park development from Peter Wall.
This closed in 2006 and this couple probably made out like bandits and
long gone …. not so much for the sheeple who bought in to the “W”
project (Rennie) and the lemmings
who bought into TV Towers (Concord Pacific)both of which are yet to complete…..
that bleating sound you hear are the sheeple who are about to have their gonads crushed into oblivion on these two projects and others…..
215
X
MickeyFinn Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 7:26 pm
Jesse post #207… you’re so correct!
216
X
realpaul Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 7:29 pm
The real China is in deep shit
http://www.prudentbear.com/ind.....commentary
#211 Alexcanuck I just loved that clip, what a bunch of retards. That woman was just an example of what happens to your real estate brain when you spend all night standing in the rain with a bunch of real estate retards juicing up on never never juice.
I take tree, my huzba take tree I so crazy woman !!!!!! I rich nowwwwww.
Did you see the crazed look in her eyes. It was if she’d spent the night with a dildo down her pants.
These retards are all getting to sweat possesion now, along with the newbies who just took possesion in the past year and promptly lost six figures. Multiply that by thousands over the past 3 years who are deep underwater and we have one big loser community.
Our multi cultural real estate boom just proves that every culture has a huge supply of idiots to sucker.
I built and sold plenty of million dollar homes to ‘rich asians’ and everyone else in the eighties and nineties in every sub area of the GVRD, the market crashed in ‘92 and didn’t break water again for 12 years. Dummies are everywhere. This is just a new generation. The thing you can count on is that every few years we get to fleece a whole new crop of suckers.
I’ve dealt with bozo’s from every race, color and creed. No one group has a lock on smarts. So……. why don’t you all leave the race question alone, it’s totally irrelavant.
The biggest laugh I ever got in buisness is when I was in charge of estate arbitration at a very large investment firm. The sons sueing mothers, the daughters sueing brothers, the kids living in the basement drooling over moms goodies upstairs. My job was to sort out these peoples problems via negotiation before everything went for a shit and ended up in litigation. I had clients of every race fighting like dogs over the family scraps.
Thats a much more interesting story than which asian has what. I get the distinct impression that no one who has posted has a realtime understanding of the issue anyway. No offense to anyone.
Whats really happening in the world should hopefully generate a higher level of discussion.
217
X
The asian myth Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 7:32 pm
“I buy three, and my husband buy three”
Please refer to Rob Chipman, he help you find mo’ good buys fo you, maybe Italiana Villetta close to Casino.
218
X
The asian myth Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 7:40 pm
“Did you see the crazed look in her eyes. It was if she’d spent the night with a dildo down her pants.”
Please some decorum, it is called a personal vibrator.
219
X
Patiently Waiting Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 8:07 pm
http://www.rentersguide.com/building.php?ID=112
Look at all these West End vacancies. Hollyburn’s “evict and renovate” strategy might not be as effective as they thought.
220
X
Lily pad Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 8:20 pm
realpaul: I have a further question for you because I didn’t quite understand your answer to my last one.
Is there a difference between a foreclosure and a court-ordered sale?
221
X
MickeyFinn Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 8:25 pm
Yes, the vacancy rate is clearly rising in Vancouver. Someone previously noted on this forum that the data from CMHC is useless so it’s hard to say what the vacancy rate is but it is clearly rising.
On a different note… You gotta love when real estate agents put “NEW PRICE” on their street signage. Why are they afraid to tell the truth… like simply putting “Price Reduced” on the sign?
Better yet, for full “truth in advertising” might I suggest… “price still declining”… “but not yet bottoming.” Let’s face it, Vancouver real estate is one big Dutch auction right now. The buyers will stay on the sidelines until they gain some confidence that the market is bottoming… and everyone can sense that the bottom is a long way from where we are today.
222
X
blueskies Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 8:31 pm
and everyone can sense that the bottom is a long way from where we are today.
in the US they have been seeking a
bottom for some time…. a few false calls so far but alas no bottom in sight yet and this is almost 2 years into the downturn
we.are.so.screwed.
223
X
NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 8:36 pm
Supraboy Rules !
He fulfills a great Devil’s Advocate role, troll or no troll.
BTW Just got back from an Asian mall …..got 6 piping hot dishes (No MSG !!!) for $ 26 (or 4 for $17 ) .
No Tsingtao beer…I drank domestic microbrewery product .
Sorry , Forgot to ask the Asian owner how many Condos, Mercedes and Jackie Chan DVD’s they own.
===========================
Post # 216 Realpaul:
Please !!!Have pre -warning next time re: the Dildo comment!!!!
QUOTE:
” I take tree, my huzba take tree I so crazy woman !!!!!! I rich nowwwwww.
Did you see the crazed look in her eyes. It was if she’d spent the night with a dildo down her pants.”
Dude….I laughed so frikkin hard I almost upchucked my sweet and sour pork and stabbed myself with a chopstick !
224
X
fungusamongus Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 8:57 pm
You’re all a bunch of freaks. Go out and play in snow.
225
X
ulsterman Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 9:04 pm
If what blueskies says is correct and the lady and her husband bought 6 condos in 2004 then they certainly are not retards or whatever else they have been referred to by some here. Maybe they sold in 2006 or 07 and made a killing. Maybe they still have them, who knows? Either way the knee-jerk “retard” comment is just thoughtless and gives the impression that some here are foaming at the mouth in their zealotry.
226
X
anonymous Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 9:10 pm
Supraboy doesn’t come accross as a troll, actually pretty sharp. Like Dave he scares some people here. The bottom will arrive about the same for all north american markets, sometime this year. Cue helicopter Ben and company.
227
X
realpaul Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 9:30 pm
#209 Jesse , good point
#218 I stand corrected
#220 Lily pad, a court ordered sale can be anything from a divorce proceeding,estate sale, proceeds of crime sale , foreclosure etc or any resulting decision of the legal processes. A court ordered sale in a foreclosure proceeding is the end result of that process.
#216 No-lympics , I’ll try to be more around the dinner hour. Sorry.
#226, I’m not going to talk to someone who doesn’t exist. BTW dream on.
228
X
realpaul Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 9:32 pm
#216 no lympics, That should be “more Careful ” around the dinner hour. sorry again
229
X
NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 10:11 pm
Re: Lowball Offers
My understanding is that listing realtors have a fiduciary obligation to present their clients (sellers) with any/all written offers no matter how ridiculous.
However, in this current economic malaise, no one knows what the current market price is.
It is simply a stab in the dark.
I have still not observed any ” SOLD ” signs amongst the ever increasing number of ” FOR SALE ” signs.
=================================================
Also:
VCI strives for 100% accuracy !!!!
Errata
POST # 218 The asian myth Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 7:40 pm
“Did you see the crazed look in her eyes. It was if she’d spent the night with a dildo down her pants.”
Please some decorum, it is called a personal vibrator.
Dildo:
DEFINITION: (Wikipedia)
A non-vibrating device, resembling the penis/Supraboy? in shape, size, and overall appearance, is a dildo.
So Realpaul was spot on re: the dildo(= not a personal vibrator) , or certainly not in error.
However, a Vibrator with no batteries ( or dead batteries) may technically qualify to be a dildo.
PS
Who cares if that Asian lady who bought (6) condos sold them or is stuck with them ? (They want dill – DOUGH !!!)
Either way, those types are part of the problem , not the solution.
230
X
scullboy Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 10:24 pm
Jesus Supra you’re a dolt. You seem to lack basic reading comprehension skills.
Let’s try this again:
MY EX AND HIS FAMILY ARE FROM COLOMBIA. I LEARNED HOW TO SPEAK SPANISH TRAVELING TO MANIZALES. I HELPED THEM GET INTO THIS COUNTRY.
You say “I”m trying not to make assumptions about your travels” then spend the rest of your post doing exactly that. I’d be stunned by your total lack of self awareness but … well I’ve read your posts.
You really are a racist git. You’re one of those idiot Richmond kids that look down on Canadians with deeper roots in this country.
Your pretentious talk about buying another property and deciding which cigar to smoke (based entirely on price) gives you away. You’re one of those stupid Chinese kids one encounters so often in Vancouver. Let me guess, your poor parents (and here I mean to use “poor” as “unfortunate” , because only really bad fortune would deliver them a son like you) were immigrants who worked REALLY hard but ended up spoiling their number one son. They knew difficulty and adversity, but they made sure you didn’t. They did you no favors, however. Only through struggle do we come to know ourselves, and I suspect you have never had to struggle much. You remind me a great deal of my brother in that regard.
Like so many kids your age and from your culture (and here I mean Richmond kids), you have both a superiority and an inferiority complex at the same time. You tell yourself and anyone who’ll listen that “Canadians” (and but Canadians you mean gwai lo) are stupid, and you laugh.
Making fun of “Canadians” makes you feel better. You feel excluded and you resent feeling like the “other”, so to make up for it you belittle the group you feel excludes you.
Deep down, you resent the fact that you’re part of a subculture, and not the dominant culture as you perceive it. You have a foot in both worlds, but it’s very difficult to keep the balance.
I’d feel sorry for you but let’s face it, you’re kind of a dick. I could make fun of you for so plainly being a banana, but that would be cheap.
You mistake flash and money for face. You think if you talk about how much money you’re making and how much smarter you are then your older co workers, it gains you face, which in your generation has been blended with the idea of “respect” from black American culture. You lack the experience that would allow you to understand the difference between real respect and the appearance of respect.
Dude I’ve been across this country, and lived in all of its large cities along with some of the smaller regional ones. One of my rowing crew was from a traditional Chinese family and we hung out all the time. We had a *LOT* of very frank talks about race and culture in Canada, and how Chinese Canadians view “Canadians”.
I’ve seen your type before, and frankly I know what you say about “Canadians” (which is really code for “white people”) behind our backs when you think we are not listening or are too stupid to understand. We get it all right. We just have too much respect for ourselves to turn around and point out that you’re being a dick.
Since you’ve shown up all you do is make unfounded claims about Vancouver housing based completely on your own tiny little world. None of your assertions about Vancouver housing are backed up by data and obviously all of your assumptions about me are based on your assumption that I’m “Canadian”.
I’m not sure how much you’ve travelled but it’s pretty apparent that even if you have travelled the world, you absorbed no wisdom in your journeys. I suppose you can take the boy out of Richmond, but you can’t take Richmond out of the boy.
In the end, no matter how much energy you put into appearing wealthy it’ll all come crashing down around you. I’m fairly sure you’ve salted away a lot of money living at home and hey… good for you. I’m sure you’re a clever little devil at work and hey, good for you there too.
Don’t think your colleagues are blind to your contempt for them however. They know. A tidal wave is coming to Vancouver and soon hard decisions will have to be made. You plainly aren’t good at playing the game and you’re going to lose.
Soon enough, you and your friends will discover the difference between the appearance of wealth and real wealth. I’d wish you good luck but somehow it seems more appropriate to tell you I hope you gain wisdom and awareness that comes from living through the difficult times ahead. You may or may not be wealthy but you plainly lack those.
231
X
realpaul Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 10:41 pm
#230 Great rant, but the fact is, supersilly is an avatar , it doesn’t exist. One long sentence is too much time wasted.
232
X
Supraboy Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 11:10 pm
“Those people don’t matter if they don’t want to sell, the only thing that matters are people that want/need to sell and people that want/are able to buy.”
I agree with that statement, but again, the problem is: If those so called ‘people’ need to sell come out of the woodwork. I haven’t seen that materialize. Only a few massive layoffs from big tech companies would put the jolt on things. As long as you’ve got companies like MDA, Mckesson, Business Objects holding up dead weights, it’ll be hard to take down the housing market.
“Canadian subprime will be start to burst. Delinquencies and defaults are increased to a historic high level, as Vancouerities already over-stretched too much over their financial balance.”
I told my dad about that and a few of his other friends, they think I’m on crack. My dad said I’m too young and haven’t seen shiiet in life. He said properties will always rise in the long run and there’s no such thing as “subprime” in Canada.
“Since you’ve shown up all you do is make unfounded claims about Vancouver housing based completely on your own tiny little world. None of your assertions about Vancouver housing are backed up by data and obviously all of your assumptions about me are based on your assumption that I’m “Canadian”.”
What is unfound? I told you to go check out Chinese restaurants in Richmond for yourself. Make sure it’s on Monday when everyone’s snowed in, we should expect the restaurants to be dead empty. You’ll be surprised when you have to wait in line for a table.
“I’m not sure how much you’ve travelled but it’s pretty apparent that even if you have travelled the world, you absorbed no wisdom in your journeys. I suppose you can take the boy out of Richmond, but you can’t take Richmond out of the boy.”
What’s that about people in South America getting kidnapped and extorted? I think you’re on crack. You hear a couple of news about a few people getting robbed and you go ahead and stereotype on an entire continent. You are definitely living in a rotten hell hole. Vancouver East side could be worse than Caracas and the slums of Rio De Janeiro. Every other week, you hear about Vietnamese people gunning each other down like mofos.
“A tidal wave is coming to Vancouver and soon hard decisions will have to be made. ”
Is that a prediction?
233
X
Supraboy Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 11:17 pm
“None of your assertions about Vancouver housing are backed up by data.”
I’ve looked at those MLS data the past 3 months. I compare it with the listings in the market, I haven’t seen any crashing yet. Prices are still sky high. Stats are for losers.
Have you actually seen any houses in the west side sold for under a million? I’m talking about a lot size of at least 40×120. The stats can show Vancouver RE dropping by 50% if it wants, the problem is nobody’s willing to sell cheap.
Scully, I don’t know what your problem is, I’m here with a neutral perspective and presenting valid questions, on the other hand, you just want to shoot every single one of my questions down.
“spoiling their number one son”
You’re wrong again, I’m the second son. My older brother is the one who’s spoiled. He’s got two houses and everynight, when I talk about real estate with him, he says, “see the real estate papers? There’s no crashing so STFU.”
234
X
CZ Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 11:43 pm
True, in long run, real estate will go up. But for how long? Some stats shows in long run, for 50 to 100 years, the real estate only catches the inflation rate, and the curve is broken only in recent “boom” years. By the law of economics, the price fluctuates up and down around the real value, just like the sea waves – the higher it goes, the lower it falls, and vice-versa. As for government’s job, it should be maintained relatively stabler – none of the governments did it right. In Canada, the CHMC was formed for affordable housing, by our tax dollars. But the result has been to push the housing high and un-affordable – just ridiculous.
The most recent 20 years are abnormal, in the senses of financial disorder, globalization, peak oil, terrorist,… The next 20 years will be mush more different – see the crash course from http://www.chrismartenson.com.
Supraboy, you claimed you are not a bull, and you would like to see the house price drop. Please check the definition – a bull is predicting market going up, well a bear predicting market going down, regardless of his willingness and hopes. A guys can be bull on one market and a bear on a different market, and a guy can be a bull for long term and a bear for short term. A bull may be converted to a bear when s/he feels market has turned, like these days. Since you have deducted the rich Asian will hold up the YVR RE from the observation in local restaurants and shopping malls (and possibly from you dad’s influence), you are a bull on YVR RE.
I won’t agree with your dad on “no subprime in Canada”. The 0-down/40-year-arms is exactly the Canadian subprime. I remember some stats shows that close to 50% of mortgages in 2006-2008 are more than 30 years with less than 5% down.
I think scullboy gives a good advice though the words are not that sweet: “gain wisdom and awareness that comes from living through the difficult times ahead”.
235
X
scullboy Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 11:56 pm
” Prices are still sky high. Stats are for losers.”
Perfect. Almost haiku like in its simplicity, really.
“Stats are for losers”
said the greatest fool, before
real estate nosedived.
Ah Supra, you are in for such a education.
Prices are determined by what they buyer will pay, not the price the seller wants. If the seller wants (x) and the buyer will pay (X-Y) AND the seller can afford not to sell, then there is no sale.
However, if the seller wants (x) and the buyer offers (X-Y) and the seller MUST sell, then the seller accepts (X-Y). Culture doesn’t enter into it. Psychology will, but only in the form of depression on the part of the seller and elation of the buyer after the sale.
They buyer can approach all sellers and offer (x-y) until he finds a seller who will agree to the sale. The more sellers on the market, the greater the probability that the buy will connect with a willing seller.
The more sellers in the market and the fewer buyers, the greater the chance of the second scenario occurring.
The current crisis playing out has both a high speed and low speed component. The high speed is the light-speed spreading of information, which both allowed for the current bubble and fuells the panic that is currently deflating the credit markets.
The low speed component is how this affects people’s daily lives.
The available supply of money (or more accurately, credit) is disappearing. With less money to go around, there are fewer people who can afford 1 million plus homes. At the same time, many businesses are collapsing because there isn’t enough money to fuel commerce.
First money dried up in America (logical since in many ways it is the source of the world’s money). This is now spreading rapidly to Asia (because the Asian economies depended on American consumers to exchange goods for cash) . ALso, as the value of the USD drops, the value of the money China holds in things like American bonds and T bills decreases.
Assuming there really are loads of Rich Asians out there, they will become severely impacted by the shortage of available money and the decreased demand from American consumers. They will, in turn, need to hedge their bets. This means they will eventually sell. THey aren’t selling yet because not enough of them are desperate. But they will.
I recall hearing about China’s stock market bubble, and how old people and students were investing money they couldn’t afford to lose into the market. I also hear the stock market is tanking. Presumably some of those people have wealthy relatives. Will their relatives desert them, or will they sell assets in order to keep the family going?
Soon enough we will see desprate sellers.
You checked the last three months of data, son. Given your age I can’t say I’m surprised. The Millennial kids aren’t what I would call long term strategic thinkers. You need to go back fifty YEARS and look at the patterns that emerge to get it. And actually if you really wanted to get it you’d google “tulipmania” and just replace “tulip” with “west Van SFH”.
Nobody parts with a fortune willingly, son. Whether the asset is a tulip, cochineal (look it up since you’re a South American buff), a share in a company or a home, its value lies ONLY IN WHAT A BUYER WILL PAY, AND NEVER IN THE SELLER’S PERCEIVED VALUE.
Bear this in mind son: in a war between stats and psychology, stats ALWAYS win.
Always.
236
X
Supraboy Says:
January 4th, 2009 at 11:58 pm
Hey CZ, the 0 down 40% thing is ridiculous, I can’t understand why people would go zero down. Do you think they would end up walking away from their house? If housing prices is worth less than the mortgage, I think the right thing to do is default.
My dad was saying to me that the only idiots going zero down for 40 yrs are those buying cheap 200k-400k condos. He said those are rookies and fools that are afraid of “missing out.”
I think the Canadian government should just let companies fail, isn’t that the goal of capitalism? Bad companies that are badly run should fail while good companies with good credit and balance sheets should be the survivors. Instead, the government is feeding money to those who failed. Greed is rewarded while those who save get punished by paying more taxes.
Whether prices come down in Vancouver remains to be seen. Most of the Vancouverites that I talk to who owns a house sound overly confident.
237
X
CZ Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 12:01 am
Supraboy,
Just had a search of MLS on van west for properties less than 1 mil – I got 28 matches, such as this one:
http://www.realtor.ca/property.....Id=7502401
highlights: 2150 ft old timer, 4575 ft land, asking 799,000. By paul’s stats, the sale price is off the asking between 0-20%.
The REBGV benchmarking price already dropped 15.7% from May $771,250 to Nov $666,525 in 2008 (Dec data is not out yet). Is that what you have expected?
238
X
scullboy Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 12:02 am
Hey CZ:
With your permission, I think I’m going to steal your phrase when I talk to bulls:
“My advice is good, but the words are not that sweet”
Perhaps I’ll even come up with a recipe around it. Bitter is a complex taste, but used correctly it’s just as useful as sweet.
239
X
MrBear Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 12:03 am
Weary: I’ve achieved peace regarding Supraboy by ignoring all his posts and those posts that reply to him. It makes these threads much quicker and more insightful reading, I highly recommend it.
#225, ulsterman: Please post here more often. A little sanity is a wonderful thing.
#219, Patiently Waiting: Thanks for pointing out the vacancies on that Hollyburn site! I currently live in one of their buildings, and they definitely did not have anywhere near that number of openings when I was last looking at it a year ago or so. Wow, nice to see them suffer a bit. Couldn’t happen to a better company.
Everyone else: Happy New Year, and take it easy on the “Rich Asian” crap. That’s really getting tired as a stereotype/slur.
240
X
Lily pad Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 12:08 am
realpaul: Thanks.
My conclusion from your explanation is that it is near impossible to buy a foreclosure but one can quite successfully buy a court ordered property.
Am I close?
241
X
MrBear Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 12:11 am
Oh, sure. Now there has to be a bit of reasonable discussion involving Supraboy, including solid replies by scullboy and CZ. Do you guys live to make me eat my words?
242
X
buff_butler Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 12:14 am
Often when looking arround for rental pricing in subareas of a city I’ll look for one well rounded posting and then search by phone number to get all listings by that person to see how reasonable the price is. I found this good for rent vs own equivalencies.
I found this very interesting. I think its the same posting over and over again. The asker has dropped price by ~10%. I don’t know what yaletown should rent for just a room though. Any ideas?
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....maxAsk=max
I’m sure there’s far worse examples of distress but craiglist cuts off at the end of november
243
X
buff_butler Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 12:17 am
That would almost make a good contest ^
244
X
CZ Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 12:23 am
Hey CZ, the 0 down 40% thing is ridiculous, I can’t understand why people would go zero down. Do you think they would end up walking away from their house? If housing prices is worth less than the mortgage, I think the right thing to do is default.
Not that easy. Canadian law is different from the US, which is recourse in most provinces (including BC, Alberta is different). This means the creditor has the rights to go after the debtor’s other assets, not only the collateral (aka the house).
My dad was saying to me that the only idiots going zero down for 40 yrs are those buying cheap 200k-400k condos. He said those are rookies and fools that are afraid of “missing out.”
True – they are called “greater fools”. MSM and CHMC have great contribution to this, IMHO. But remember, the housing market is like a pyramid – in general, only those 1st time home buyers are the pushing force to escalate the ladders up. When the entrance condo getting cheaper, the others will follow the suit.
I think the Canadian government should just let companies fail, isn’t that the goal of capitalism? Bad companies that are badly run should fail while good companies with good credit and balance sheets should be the survivors. Instead, the government is feeding money to those who failed. Greed is rewarded while those who save get punished by paying more taxes.
100% agree. Good thought. But unfortunately, this country is not built as pure capitalism – the governments will act upon the crisis hitting on their faces and call those bailout for the society – that is life, and life is tough, especially for those prudent people.
Whether prices come down in Vancouver remains to be seen. Most of the Vancouverites that I talk to who owns a house sound overly confident.
No need to wait, it is already down a lot. The question is how much more of the haircut in the coming years. I agree a lot of vancouver home owners are still in their cozy dream of the paper wealth on their house.
245
X
CZ Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 12:37 am
scullboy,
You are more than welcome to use my words. But be careful, I am an ESL student.
I like the “Bitter is a complex taste”. In Chinese proverb, it says: “良药苦口利于病,衷言逆耳利于行” (my interpretation: good medication is bitter, but it resolves the illness; good advice is harsh to hear, but it helps in life).
246
X
CZ Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 12:47 am
MrBear,
This site has been a good resource for education. Anyone has got benefit from it would have responsibility to feedback. What I am try to do is to provide more helps as I have got from the site, to young people with less experience in the society – it’s our role as being a well-behaved citizen, on either the virtual web or the real life.
247
X
asalvari Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 1:27 am
#242
I am not sure what the current rate is for your case, but hell I would love this price and accommodation 2001 toronto.
I paid approx 1150/month for a junior 1 bedroom rental located at yonge and davisvile. 2001 yes, its not a mistake.
248
X
jesse Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 3:30 am
“but again, the problem is: If those so called ‘people’ need to sell come out of the woodwork.”
Again, it doesn’t matter because potential buyers always have alternatives — renting or staying put in their existing property. It only complicates matters by trying to guess motives of sellers. Even if every property for sale lowered its price by 10% it wouldn’t matter. Without capital gains “in the bag” the fair price is still way lower.
Show a decent return on equity from cash flows and you’ll find a buyer lickety split.
249
X
jesse Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 3:45 am
“I told you to go check out Chinese restaurants in Richmond for yourself. Make sure it’s on Monday when everyone’s snowed in, we should expect the restaurants to be dead empty. You’ll be surprised when you have to wait in line for a table.”
How does this prove anything? That now is a great time to invest in a restaurant, given the lineups and all? Try this for an experiment: poll the people in the lineups and find out how many are planning to buy real estate in the next 4-6 months.
250
X
jesse Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 4:19 am
“I paid approx 1150/month for a junior 1 bedroom rental located at yonge and davisvile. 2001 yes, its not a mistake.”
There should be little doubt which city, Toronto or Vancouver, has a better yield. It’s a wonder why prices in Toronto aren’t higher. Or is your argument that Vancouver rents are bound to increase?
251
X
How stupid can you get Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 5:36 am
real estate market to get new rockets in 2009 get details:
http://realestateinfo.properti.....com/?p=565
Yes, you won’t believe what you read, but keep it in perspective, it is written by a highly trained professional with a realtor license.
This writer must be the product of a Maggie and a Rob.
252
X
blueskies Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 7:08 am
” Prices are still sky high. Stats are for losers.”
ASKING Prices are still sky high…. agreed!
Stats are for losers… you will ignore stats at your own peril….
huge line ups at the polar bear swim at English Bay therefore real estate prices
will go up……
253
X
blueskies Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 7:13 am
from #251
We thing the Victoria Real Estate Market will do well in 2009 and we are not alone. The most important part of all of this is for us all to keep a positive attitude and ignore all the people that complain.
can i complain about your spelling acumen bill?….
254
X
NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 8:06 am
Well the Holidays are over….
The 3 weeks of snow could be used as an excuse that affected the economy , whether it be RE or other consumer purchases
December, due to the weather and the holiday season may have held back the floodgates of bad news.
However, I predict the floodgates will begin to open in January 2009
However, some VCI posters have claimed that there are too many NEGATIVE views on VCI.
However the truth IS the truth, the facts ARE the facts.
I have found it very hard to find any “island ” of positive news. This global economic situation has created a global low tide that has affected all ships, I have not heard of any ships defying gravity suspended at the old high water mark.
Forewarned = forearmed.
Knowledge is power.
Adding a “negative” label to the truth/facts is one’s subjective right of choice.
I consider this economic meltdown as THE biggest white collar crime spree in history with our failed leadership turning a blind eye. The average citizen is left twisting in the wind, in gridlock,numb, in shock, limbo,treading water, which way is up ?.
No sense dressing it up with the broken record siren calls of the so called experts who try to sugar coat and consider this part of a NORMAL cycle. What IS normal about it…? this is unprecedented.
It sounds “negative” but the facts support this bitter truth.
255
X
asalvari Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 8:10 am
#250 Jesse
I would not say that the rents should increase in Vancouver because the rents in Toronto are higher – that is really bad conclusion. For example I could compare Vancouver with New York, and get even more compelling comparison?
I would say since condos are way more cheaper in Toronto, that Vancouver prices should come down a bit. But that would be exactly what everybody else is saying on this site.. heh..
256
X
MrBear Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 9:01 am
#247, asalvari: I’m not certain, but a ‘junior one bedroom’ rental means an independent apartment, does it not? Because the offer referenced in #242 is one bedroom of a two bedroom apartment, and I personally would pay quite a premium to not live with someone like Mack who doesn’t even have the smarts to put down the toilet seat when he photographs his bathroom for craigslist. Yuck.
257
X
NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 9:28 am
Re: Rental markets:
It time to either re – write the rule book or draft another one.
Dumb specuvestors advertising for tenants on CraigsList are simply treading water…a desparate grab for cash. They are hoping this ” rent” money is sufficient bridge – financing while betting the market will turnaround.
—Prediction based on the aforementioned:
These units will have a revolving door of ownership, (foreclosures, auctions, court – ordered sales etc), leading to unstable scenario for the renter.
People will migrate to rental units that have historically been rental units. Owners of many of these units are well established, likely debt/mortgage free or close to it, know the ropes as landlords, and can best weather the economic storm. Vacancy to them is simply “lost income”, but not a tipping point to bankruptcy or foreclosure. These established landlords may be willing to negotiate, but I think they will do quite well when the specuvestor tenants start to bail for the reasons I have outlined.
—The past is the best prediction of the future:
In ” thinking outside the box” … we already have an oversupply of finished product. Some had previously posted a rumour of a developer ready to auction off some of their condo product. RE Auctions have already occurred in BC…on news was Vancouver Island RE condo auction last summer(which I found strange then,…. but perhaps in hindsight a “RE canary in the mine” warning sign of a market correction).
The owners of finshed condo product may be in denial, but the developers of condo product still being constructed may not be in denial,they clealry see the writing on the wall,… and these may be primed for auction by desperate developers etc. who have no choice to accept any UNreserved offer.
This would create a tsunami like shock wave
to those wishful thinkers of existing condo product who are holding on….as the auction prices of the NEWEST condo product set a new benchmark(plus the fact they are newer).
Again, the condo product that is still being constructed in a collapsed market is the looming iceberg which may soon both flood the market and further depress whatever the market price was or would have been.
258
X
jesse Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 9:36 am
“I would not say that the rents should increase in Vancouver because the rents in Toronto are higher – that is really bad conclusion.”
Yeah I shouldn’t bait like that. I knew what you meant
259
X
MrBear Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 10:00 am
#254, NO -LYMPICS Says: “However, some VCI posters have claimed that there are too many NEGATIVE views on VCI. However the truth IS the truth, the facts ARE the facts.”
You are right about all of that, but there is another important point to consider; the VCI posters you are referring to are conflating ‘negative’ and ‘bearish’, which is simply a projection. People who are hoping for the market to climb see people who expect the market to drop as being ‘negative’. I’ll put my money on rational analysis over hope any day. It has worked out for me reasonably well so far.
I can assure you, though, that MrBear is a positive bear. Heck, I think all us bears are happy right now, even if we perhaps engage in a bit too much schadenfreude. So be happy! Pray for more deflation, since it would be good for the Vancouver economy in the long run, and for more rain, to get rid of this blasted snow! Happy, happy, deflate, wait, and buy if/when it suits you! And don’t let the ‘negative’ bulls get you down!
Oh, and I agree with your thoughts in #257 about renting from trapped flippers, too. I’d move out of town before I’d rent one of their places, ready to be evicted on the bank’s schedule. I’m too old for that game. I grumble about Hollyburn, (the stories I could tell…) but I know they like me for my money.
260
X
ant Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 10:20 am
I’ve looked at those MLS data the past 3 months. I compare it with the listings in the market, I haven’t seen any crashing yet. Prices are still sky high. Stats are for losers.
So you compared the stats on sales to the units that haven’t sold and that tells you prices haven’t dropped?!?
Riiiiight, We’ll just ignore those nasty MLS stats and believe you that the market is fine.. Afterall, the real estate ads say its always a great time to buy and someone put a leaky condo for sale on craigslist asking $1 billion dollars.
261
X
richard1 Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 10:28 am
boy, this thread is 5 pages long already. somebody start a new thread.
Vancouver Sun column on the olypmic village
Microsoft layoffs?
They only relatively recently opened their richmond center too… they were supposed to hire up to 800 people, but i don’t know how that went. i distinctly remember seeing one mls property for a richmond apartment with text “…close to Microsoft”.
262
X
Patiently Waiting Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 10:51 am
One thing I’m watching for is developers becoming landlords. In some cases they might make whole buildings as rentals. We’ve discussed this before here. The numbers are not good for renting but it might be the least of all evils. At least, they’ll get some income over the hard times.
Mind you, they’ll need to have a grasp of market rents. Onni doesn’t get it yet, as they are charging about the same as the specuvestors. And they are not renting, as these are still available (posted previously):
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....17363.html
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....15807.html
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....15221.html
These are the dregs, the left-overs, the ones that wouldn’t sell. Onni needs to get a clue.
263
X
NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 10:59 am
MrBear:
What I am seeing unfold as we speak is simply the gap filler in between the dots, or fills in the blanks of what never made sense to many VCI posters.
The BIG picture ,past present and future is now getting clearer and clearer.
Don’t get me wrong, I am not trying to be a “nattering Nabob of negativism”. In a perfect world, if the RE market and stock market rose based on sound fundamentals ….and people had work …and had a decent standard of living and we could address the needs of those who slipped throught the cracks , hey,…. W-H-O could argue with that?
I saw the early 1980’s crash, it was the same specuvestor lemming mentality, (though condos were not yet a major variable).
The post Expo 86 boom was simply scared money on the run. It had no domestic merits . Honk Kong Investors had established holdings in BC, but not to the degree they did after 1986. The Hong Kong market was not sustainable for BC, it had its limits like all golden gooses.
There was a lull, then the Stock Market boom of the mid -1990’s, which was perhaps the original “warning” indicator of fiat money and paper profits aka rampant speculation , and a precursor to the global RE boom.
One article provided by a VCI poster noted that a investment expert in the US bluntly stated that the US Gov’t felt the need to prime the RE bubble in the early 2000’s when the Stock Market bubble blew up.
As the icing on the cake was the Oil speculators last gasp to squeeze blood from a stone.
Now we have both economic parachutes (RE and Stock Market) crashing in sync.
Now….Gov’ts have NO MORE wriggle room. All they talk about is bail outs to specific sectors.
In hindsightand a bit of analysis, its pretty clear that the local and global economy for the past few decades was a grand Ponzi scheme, moreso as evidence by the outright and expeditious collapse of this economic house of cards. The kool-aid was mass produced and with concurrent global distribution.
So, we are now left with a global economic mess, a fiscal carpet bombing.
Where do we begin?
Certainly not following the old ways / old rules…we need to build confidence and create faith again. That will require a massive restructuring on many fronts, perhaps starting within each of us .
One good saying I came across was:
“Money finds its way back to its rightful owner” .
That can be interpreted many ways…but it implies some sense of justice assisted by a day of reckoning.
In the end it will probably be better for all concerned, but its the adressing of the collateral damage( both seen and yet-to-be identified) between now and then that is our current focus and priority.
The wiser of us will hopefully share the info, insights, observations etc.,….see the pitfalls and traps, avoid them , if not outright stay on the sidelnes, till the dust settles.