Friday Free-for-all!
It’s open topic and news round up time! Here are a few stories I’ve noticed as we shift into 2009:
-Metro Vancouver home equity takes a huge hit
-Worse numbers to come
-2008: What a year that was!
-TSX loses 35% in dismal year
-Hiring climate in Vancouver area turns chilly
-Forest sector loses $230 million in 3rd quarter
-Electronic Arts: Job cuts to 10% of work force
-A quarter century of ‘leaky condo’ crisis
-Falling Canadian house prices still better than USA
-Best prediction of 2008: Garth Turner on real estate
-Five tips to keep your credit healthy in 2009
So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have a great weekend and a Happy New Year!
(19 votes, average: 4.89 out of 5)
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January 2nd, 2009 at 12:00 am
January 2nd, 2009 at 12:29 am
These people have little knowledge to offer to others, but are shrewd to garner information from the smarter intelligent bulls.
Learn to read who are NOT your friends. I’ll advise only my enemies to buy RE in 2006-2008, or goad them towards call & put options.
It may be time to quietly work with a realtor you can trust now like Exx and Jeff. It could be months or even a few years before you find what you want and at 2004 prices.
January 2nd, 2009 at 1:01 am
January 2nd, 2009 at 1:06 am
Check out the hiring cancellations at the City of Vancouver. I don’t think property taxes will be going down anytime soon.:
http://vancouver.ca/humanresources/jobs/index.htm
January 2nd, 2009 at 1:09 am
Even more surprising to me was how people eat it up- very few of the comments in response to his announcement reflect that people realize how wrong this is… Of course this statistic might be biased by the fact that his site is censored and not all comments make it through.
January 2nd, 2009 at 1:23 am
One says “But those ugly number are, thankfully, last year’s news. For 2009, experts see economic conditions improving in the second half of this year” and the other says “The worst numbers for the Canadian economy are yet to come and “Never before, in December, have we been so pessimistic regarding economic growth for the upcoming year”.
January 2nd, 2009 at 2:50 am
I have to agree regarding Garth’s new online store. Escept for donations to keep their sites going, most of the blogs I read that deal with emergency/survival preparation are simply providing advice and not trying to make a buck off the back of their readers by selling them items they recommend. Honestly, I know we all have to make a living but I can’t help but lose a little respect for Mr. Turner in this case. I mean, really, how different is this than a realtor trying to pump up real estate then sell you a house?
January 2nd, 2009 at 9:17 am
January 2nd, 2009 at 9:28 am
Vancouver will be a disaster.
Watch it closely….Gregor and his leftie crew have no wriggle room…they are party to the books and the projections .
They are caught between a rock and a hard place, won’t be able to afford their left wing ideas , and may be forced to adopt very conservative fiscal policies(which will make them feel absolutely sick). Left Wing Gov’ts can sometimes be more brutal in cost -cutting than others.
Across the board,in a non- partisan sense… the Public will have no patience for increased taxes…they will see what has happened to date as bad management and will be primed for revolt!
Buy diapers in bulk …ALL levels of Gov’t !
Vancouver developers must be cringing right now trying to sell their own over - supply of condo product, yet up against the Olympic Village which HAS to, I repeat HAS to finish by Fall 2009. If it is Gov’t owned, it often bypasses normal market rules and market forces, and Vancouver will do something “goofy” , rest assured, that will have ripple effects in the market.
I think it is just a matter of time before Vancouver’s partner “Millenium” folds. The Olympic contracts generally obligate the host City ie the City’s own citizens to any/all cost shortfalls or overrruns, citizen= “Banker of last resort”.
They will either
(i) blow the condos out and piss of competing developers….or
(ii)rent them out (and compete with landlords elsewhere )
The developers should have seen this coming.
However, this seems to be a Global phenomenon in Olympic host cities…Olympic villages seem to be a bad idea for the local community . Britain is already cringing at their “Olympic village” cost overruns and their Olympics is still 4 years away.
Holiday Season is over..watch each and every move by all Gov’ts now, and watch them sweat and cringe as they try desperately to put on a brave face.
Unfortunately It will be quite painful for the rest of us to watch .
January 2nd, 2009 at 9:32 am
OTTAWA — If you thought this past year was rough, economists say you ain’t seen nothing yet.
“Never before, in December, have we been so pessimistic regarding economic growth for the upcoming year,” says Dale Orr, chief economist at Global Insight, which is forecasting that the Canadian economy will contract by 0.4 per cent in 2009.
January 2nd, 2009 at 9:50 am
What are you going to do with the 1/2 price condos you anticipate buying ?
I can sell you a Pet Rock at 50 -70 % off.
January 2nd, 2009 at 9:50 am
January 2nd, 2009 at 9:59 am
“It could be months or even a few years before you find what you want and at 2004 prices.”
2004 prices are for chumps. It was already a bubble in 2004.
And, who has ‘enemies’ after high school? Honestly, do well adjusted adults have ‘enemies’?
Anon
“this statistic might be biased by the fact that his site is censored and not all comments make it through.”
He’s not joe average who can afford to shrug and point out that it wasn’t his words. If there’s a potentially offensive comment it could affect him and his party politically and he can’t take that risk.
NO LYMPICS
“They are caught between a rock and a hard place, won’t be able to afford their left wing ideas , and may be forced to adopt very conservative fiscal policies(which will make them feel absolutely sick). Left Wing Gov’ts can sometimes be more brutal in cost -cutting than others.”
Actually studies have shown that liberal governments tend to spend less AND tax less than conservative ones. The economy does better as well. The studies that I saw were comparing Republicans and Democrats but I think it shows how shallow and clueless the blind rhetoric you spew is. You should get a job at Faux News.
January 2nd, 2009 at 10:03 am
Which is it ?
Yesterday you said :
QUOTE:
86 Supraboy Says:
January 1st, 2009 at 11:53 pm
” I was out at a Chinese restaurant tonight. Oh boy, was it ever packed. I looked around, ordered a Tsingtao beer and felt like a poor man compared to everyone else’s table. They were ordering bottles of red wine. If you people think the Vancouver housing market is going down, you better think again. If the economy is really that bad, why are the Chinese people packed with people with money. I have a feeling that the real estate market going down is only a myth. I open up the Chinese real estate newspapers and I see the majority of houses in Vancouver listed for over a million. Even crappy Vancouver specials in Marpole are listed over a million, and they’re at least 10 years old too! They won’t sell for anything less and they have lots of cash to hold out for a very long time .
The Olympics will give the condo market a boost as people will be scrambling for rental units.”
However, TODAY you said
QUOTE:
8 Supraboy Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 9:17 am
” Jollyjoker, I’m doing the same thing. Markets tend to be 6-12 months forward looking, by the time we hit September, condos in vancouver will be dirt cheap, right at the bottom, and stock markets will be flying high.”
==================================================
Supraboy ….You contradict yourself.
(How many Tsingtao beer did you have ? )
Many posters here look up to you and hang onto your every word,so don’t disappoint them !
PS
Remember to turn on your Borat /Chinglish Translator program….your Engrish is to too very goodness to be truthing in the 2nd post
January 2nd, 2009 at 10:30 am
I said ” can somtimes “.
I also said ” Left Wing “, not liberal.
” Left Wing” can often be more definitive at the Local Gov’t and Provincial level…at the Federal level it can be less clear and more ambiguous. The Federal Lieberals were good at this political androgeny , straddling the fence and yet increasingly numb to the slivers up their ying yang
Gregor and crew rode in to victory on a protest vote, most likely due to the Millenium deal expose’.
Lots of new faces on Vancouver council. Left Wingers in power during bad times is a fascinating scenario. In all fairness, we should give them the benefit of the doubt in the short term ,as who knows what rabbits they ” may ” pull out of the hat ?
Otherwise:
You seem to have an idealogue myopia for deeming people as either Republican or Democrat.
—Do you still use black and white polaroid film ?
—Is Barney “what, me worry ? ” Frank a hero to you ?
BTW: This is Canada…if you don’t believe me, check your Count Chocula cereal box and see it there is more than one language on the outside and if the word “color” is spelled “colour”.
Let me guess…you voted for the McCain/Palin ticket , right ? ….eerrrrr I mean ” correct ” ?
January 2nd, 2009 at 10:37 am
——————————–
Vancouver Weather in the News
Chilled Vancouver commuters faced their second day of winter hell today, as an additional ¼ centimetre of the peculiar white stuff fell, bringing the lower mainland to its knees and causing millions of dollars worth of damage to the marijuana crops.
Scientists suspect that the substance is some form of frozen water particles and experts from Saskatchewan are being flown in.
With temperatures dipping to almost but not quite near-zero mark, Vancouverites were warned to double insulate their lattes before venturing out.
Vancouver police recommended that people stay inside except for emergencies, such as running out of espresso or biscotti to see them through Vancouver’s most terrible storm to date.
The local Canadian Tire reported that they had completely sold out of fur-lined sandals.
Drivers were cautioned to put their convertible tops up, and several have been shocked to learn that their SUVs actually have four wheel drive, although most have no idea how to use it.
Weary commuters faced soggy sushi, and the threat of frozen breast implants. Although Dr. John Blatherwick, of the Coastal Health Authority reassured everyone that most breast implants were perfectly safe to 25 below, down-filled bras are flying off the shelves at Mountain Equipment Co-op.
“The government has to do something,” snarled an angry Trevor Warburton. “I didn’t pay $540,000 for my one bedroom condo so I could sit around and be treated like someone from Toronto.”
———————————
Regards
arit
January 2nd, 2009 at 10:55 am
January 2nd, 2009 at 10:57 am
P.S. I also happen to disagree with the results of Mr. Turner’s research results on these topics. For example he advises use of gas generators and says diesel is not good. You can store diesel for much longer time than gas, diesel has much smaller chances of exploding, and you can actually make it yourself if you have to. If I were picking a 7200 watt generator for continued use (as opposed to occasional battery charging cycles) like Mr. Turner advises I would have seriously considered diesel first.
January 2nd, 2009 at 11:00 am
Umm what? Did you just skim what I said or actually read it? Most of your response seems to be completely tangential (to put it nicely) to what I said.
January 2nd, 2009 at 11:09 am
January 2nd, 2009 at 11:25 am
January 2nd, 2009 at 11:26 am
No, obviously you didn’t read my response.
Skim….? skim what? “Sour milk” ?
It seems you have the same type of ” labelling ” responses, both your current post and previous posts , no sense discussing it further.
Stick to your other posts, they are somewhat more informative.
We’ll agree to disagree on the rest.
January 2nd, 2009 at 11:34 am
Too Frikkin funny !!!
NY Times story
” Skaters Jump In as Foreclosures Drain the Pool ”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/29/us/29pools.html
Question: Who is liable for injury ?
Answer: Whoever owns the papers !
Banks to get sued ?
Require more bailouts ?
January 2nd, 2009 at 11:34 am
But, I wouldn’t put it past them to increase the number of social housing units in the project as a rationale of appeasement. It’s going to be very hard to sell the huge financial loss to the public any way you slice it. But, with that many bums and thugs roaming the hallways who’s going to want to buy/live there? Building Tomorrows Ghettos Today!! LOL I see the Millenium project in 2012 as Vancouvers prettiest crack house.
January 2nd, 2009 at 11:37 am
January 2nd, 2009 at 11:46 am
No problem.
I think the majority of VCI posters can sense a troll a mile away. Some trolls are amusing , intentional or otherwise.
( Sometimes, it’s just good sport to spar with them ).
January 2nd, 2009 at 1:06 pm
The Provincial Gov’t bought up a bunch of Vancouver SRO’s, didn’t they ? Aren’t the supposed to turn them into social housing ?
In light of this, why did Vancouver even consider social housing at the Olympic Village?…This is not the jurisdiction of Local Gov’ts , nor should they accept nor encourage this social service type of download . This simply creates compromising precedent, the responsibility should backwash to higher levels of Gov’t .
In light of the looming surplus of NON- social (ie market)housing units, IS it a good idea to change the plan and convert new condos into social housing ? Sorry, but human nature is quite NIMBY-ish….Social Housing is usually ALL or NONE…somewhat segregated, not a “part___” or “some ” ( nice ring to it eh? ). In other words, will some Hi Rise towers nearing completion be bought at some “fire sale” by some level of Gov’t and made into social housing?
Granite countertops , sub zero fridges, hardwood floors etc. etc. for social housing……I kinda doubt it( but then again Gov’t never ceases to amaze).
If one rents, whether it be social housing or market housing, there is less attachment,and requires higher maintenance. Wear and Tear accelerates.
The funny thing re Real Estate like condos is that its not like groceries with limited shelf life. They don’t get tossed out and recycled. Condos and houses tend to last for decades, but they are meant for “homo sapiens”. These will need warm bodies, being vacant is never really a good thing. I doubt the specuvestors will hold on much longer. So…WHO will live in them? , ….WHAT definable demographic group?
Also, if they convert to social housing, wouldn’t Local Gov’t lose property tax revenue ?
Again, way too much downside for Gov’t to snap these surplus condos up, they may even get whacked by another wave of leaky condos and be left holding the bag(how ironic !)
ALSO:
Some VCI posters talk about diving in when the condos sell for 1/2 price. IMHO, IF I was interested , I wouldn’t go even near them till the dust settles. So many more and currently unforeseen variables will rear their ugly head and kick in that the truly savvy buyer will need to be aware of.
So….. when spring arrives in a few months …the so called start of the “RE season”, and all the RE Bears come out of hibernation…fasten your seatbelts and place your bets ! ( I’ll watch from the sidelines).
January 2nd, 2009 at 2:03 pm
History has shown that busts tend to run twice as long as the booms in real estate. So, are we looking at approximately 16 years or more before we reach another bull market? Time will tell, but I believe so. Sheeple believe in words like “correction”. They don’t understand, nor will they ever fully grasp the reasons behind the run up or the crash. That’s why this is so bloody easy and becoming more fun by the month.
Thanks to the specuvestors, sheeple scared into buying, trolls on this board, wannabe trumplords, realtards, numbered developers etc… for making 2009 a year that I’ll enjoy very much. Your stupidity, greed, lack of foresight and diligence has made me feel superior to you. I digress.
All is not doom and gloom, perhaps I’ll hire Supraboy or krish to trim my hedges some day… ahh, they’d probably f*** it up. Better I do it myself, besides I won’t cost anything.
January 2nd, 2009 at 2:13 pm
January 2nd, 2009 at 2:15 pm
January 2nd, 2009 at 2:22 pm
Economic turnaround has started !
Vancouverboom2 hired Supraboy to write post #30.
January 2nd, 2009 at 2:30 pm
“Tax cheats feel it’s OK ”
High-risk sectors are construction and hospitality
http://www.canada.com/theprovi.....3998c79a05
When times get tough…Gov’ts tend to look everywhere for revenue. In boom times…more of this probably goes on.
PS:
Watch for the audits to get ratcheted - up in certain sectors.
January 2nd, 2009 at 2:57 pm
January 2nd, 2009 at 3:23 pm
I feel some may not have completely understood post number 30. As a service to our online community I have a simplified translation to proper English:
Many many Xiong Meige the month is except outside the money which pays lowly rents many years is good, when the present 3900 arrives the downtown Vancouver and browntown then rents along walks down gets down many years vacant they, and will rent them and for surpasses $800 which 50% will not be able to sell inexpensive. Bearz muchy expensivey 2067.
Best regards,
arit
January 2nd, 2009 at 3:51 pm
How do flippers hide their profits if it’s over $10k?
I was told by a revenue Canada auditor that “fintrack” notifies them whenever there is a deposit of over $10k in the bank.. unless the buyers of said pre sales are paying cash for the “lift”.
Would they be re assesing from ‘06 or ‘07 when people actually bought the scalped, er, assignments?
On another note, two identical units at Shangri La (#3407 and #3007) are on the market but one of them is $150k more than the higher floor.. Even at $429k it makes no sense to own it as the rent will never exceed $1600.
But then again #30 already addressed this, thank you Arit you made me laugh really hard.
January 2nd, 2009 at 4:40 pm
REV CAN doubled the number of auditors just last year. They are absolutly vicious.
January 2nd, 2009 at 4:49 pm
“He’s not joe average who can afford to shrug and point out that it wasn’t his words. If there’s a potentially offensive comment it could affect him and his party politically and he can’t take that risk.”
Drachen, are you saying that statistic is definitely not biased because Mr Turner is not joe average? What’s your point?
Regarding taking risks, I would argue that Mr Generator Joe has taken a significant judgment/reputation risk by announcing this new generator store. His name was a brand that stood for something. Whatever this something was, it was certainly different than “generators”.
By the way, it takes less than 2 minutes to find the same generators sold online at over 25% less than advertised on the new site…
January 2nd, 2009 at 4:54 pm
January 2nd, 2009 at 6:15 pm
http://www.dmwmedia.com/tags/career/layoffs
Layoffs in BC are snowballing. The economic effect of every one of these high paying job is 3-2 across the economy. no restaruants, boutiques, bars ski chalets, canuck tickets etc etc. hear it? It’s a slow train coming.
January 2nd, 2009 at 6:19 pm
http://www.canada.com/vancouve.....9cf4b37cf6
January 2nd, 2009 at 6:23 pm
http://www.canada.com/vancouve.....9cf4b37cf6
January 2nd, 2009 at 6:24 pm
January 2nd, 2009 at 6:49 pm
I went to Chinatown for lunch, the restaurant is called Phnom Penh, it was packed all the way till late afternoon. I was pissed waiting for a table from 1:30pm to 2pm, then when I was done with lunch, at 3pm, there were still lineups. If you don’t believe me, go check it out.
I took a nice half day off because my supervisor said I can go and enjoy life since the company is making boat loads of money. I also went all in on the markets a few weeks ago buying up tonnes of Chinese stocks and it rocketed this past week. I’m planning to go on margin and make more cash while all you lemmings keep on hoping that the markets will crash.
January 2nd, 2009 at 6:57 pm
http://www.doctorhousingbubble.....than-2008/
January 2nd, 2009 at 6:58 pm
–noun
satisfaction or pleasure felt at someone else’s misfortune.
***
Bring on the wave of audits! My books are clean.
January 2nd, 2009 at 7:37 pm
January 2nd, 2009 at 8:21 pm
Use/ripoff the SIMS concept, maybe include John as the SUV Joker, Supraboy as Robbin’.
Objective/goal is multi -faceted… use Martial Arts skills to get through the gauntlet of Rich Asians at the Condo Pre Sale line-ups. Put the minimum amount down to gain the most condo assignments.
Predict the market peak and flip ASAP.
(NOTE:
—Penalty points for advertising on CraigsList.
—Bonus points for the highest gross total surface area of granite countertops).
Take your earnings(?) and get to Mexico before Revenue Canada audit.
Bladder that can hold the most Coronas wins !!!
January 2nd, 2009 at 9:43 pm
I suggest we include each one of his monthly items for discussion in this blogg. Also it would be good if someone updates the quote tracker: Dec 08 “Pay no attention to those voices of doom: buy that first home” “get creative…buy a home with a friend, a mortagage helper, buy a building with 12 friends”…hahahaha…..sorry I oouldnt hold it in.
January 2nd, 2009 at 9:44 pm
http://www.bcbusinessonline.ca.....launch-pad
January 2nd, 2009 at 9:57 pm
http://vancouverunrealestate.b.....undup.html
PS I “think” that is Bob on the left, not sure .
January 2nd, 2009 at 10:00 pm
To “I Told You So”:
“I suggest we include each one… ”
“Also it would be good if someone…”
I have a few more:
“Someone replace the guard in the north post”
“Somebody to clean the barracks please”
and
“Whoever is available please go fill the sandbags”
———————–
Insteade, try:
“I, I_Told_You_So, will be posting an article every month in this blog, discussing Bob Rennies’ achievments”
or
“I, I_Told_You_So, have updated the quote tracker…”
How’s that?
It is now a community blog. We all share the burden.
Best regards,
arit
January 2nd, 2009 at 10:04 pm
I am in the tech sector. My company is extremely profitable, one of the biggest in the lower mainland. The company does very, very well.
Unlike Supraboy, I did not get a fat 20% raise. Instead I got:
1. Canceled Christmas party.
2. Hire freeze.
3. No raises this year. Nothing, not even the 3% we take for granted.
Supraboy, are you guys hiring? I want a 20% raise too. I am fluent in all leading programming languages…
Regards,
arit
January 2nd, 2009 at 10:23 pm
http://www.vanmag.com/Real_Est.....page=0%2C0
==========================================
Poster # 48, thanks for the article.
Translation:
I think Rennie is indicating desperation via his reminiscing of the good old days. If his dad had to start out today, old Bob would be living in a shoebox up the Fraser Valley.
The whole system has been prostituted and bastardized, and Rennie,( a major pimp /beneficiary of the aforementioned ) shows an indicting combination of both ignorance and bad judgement even ” thinking ” what is actually now in PRINT.
Typical Realturd denial, and realizing they ain’t self- fulfilling prophets anymore .
January 2nd, 2009 at 10:25 pm
January 2nd, 2009 at 6:49 pm
“I work in the tech sector and I just got myself a big fat 20% pay raise.”
Was it only you in your organization who got the 20% big fat raise?
In today’s market, either you got a big promotion or you were SEVERELY UNDERPAID prior to your big fat pay raise.
January 2nd, 2009 at 10:42 pm
January 2nd, 2009 at 10:49 pm
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_pMsc.....ct2008.jpg
January 2nd, 2009 at 10:58 pm
January 2nd, 2009 at 11:08 pm
I recently moved here from AB and 3 months into my intense home buying mission, I met a Vancouverite at an open house who introduced me to this and other VAN RE blogs…armed with new information, I decided to rent for Dec 1 but didn’t start my rental search until late Nov. I saw 55+ properties in just a few days (2xbed + 2xbath) in Yaletown, Coal Harbor, Farirview, Kits and maybe one more area…can’t remember now. All but 2 landlords were willing to negotiate on the lease term and the rent. Many of the properties I viewed had been vacant for Nov, many had been vacant October, and several had been since September…just a few that I looked at were currently occupied. Tonight, when I did a scan of Craigslist, more than 1/2 of the properties I had previously viewed in late Nov are still available listed along side of a whole bunch of new ones.
On another note, I am curious as to where Poster #54 works at? I am entrenched in the technology industry and the scenario he/she describes is disparate to my and my colleagues experience…check out TechCruch, a very reputable technology blog from the US..techcrunch.com/layoffs/
January 2nd, 2009 at 11:11 pm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TWiXy55OHyY
Happy New Year!
January 2nd, 2009 at 11:32 pm
Working for big companies sucks. The tasks are so miniscual. I worked for a big company here before and I can tell you that I did nothing all day, pay was decent and I was constantly daytrading. Good thing is that you can hide under the radar easily. Just keep your mouth shut and be a “yesman” and everyone will be happy.