What I am seeing unfold as we speak is simply the gap filler in between the dots, or fills in the blanks of what never made sense to many VCI posters.

The BIG picture ,past present and future is now getting clearer and clearer.

Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to be a "nattering Nabob of negativism". In a perfect world, if the RE market and stock market rose based on sound fundamentals ….and people had work …and had a decent standard of living and we could address the needs of those who slipped throught the cracks , hey,…. W-H-O could argue with that?

I saw the early 1980's crash, it was the same specuvestor lemming mentality, (though condos were not yet a major variable).

The post Expo 86 boom was simply scared money on the run. It had no domestic merits . Honk Kong Investors had established holdings in BC, but not to the degree they did after 1986. The Hong Kong market was not sustainable for BC, it had its limits like all golden gooses.

There was a lull, then the Stock Market boom of the mid -1990's, which was perhaps the original "warning" indicator of fiat money and paper profits aka rampant speculation , and a precursor to the global RE boom.

One article provided by a VCI poster noted that a investment expert in the US bluntly stated that the US Gov't felt the need to prime the RE bubble in the early 2000's when the Stock Market bubble blew up.

As the icing on the cake was the Oil speculators last gasp to squeeze blood from a stone.

Now we have both economic parachutes (RE and Stock Market) crashing in sync.

Now….Gov'ts have NO MORE wriggle room. All they talk about is bail outs to specific sectors.

In hindsightand a bit of analysis, its pretty clear that the local and global economy for the past few decades was a grand Ponzi scheme, moreso as evidence by the outright and expeditious collapse of this economic house of cards. The kool-aid was mass produced and with concurrent global distribution.

So, we are now left with a global economic mess, a fiscal carpet bombing.

Where do we begin?

Certainly not following the old ways / old rules…we need to build confidence and create faith again. That will require a massive restructuring on many fronts, perhaps starting within each of us .

One good saying I came across was:

"Money finds its way back to its rightful owner" .

That can be interpreted many ways…but it implies some sense of justice assisted by a day of reckoning.

In the end it will probably be better for all concerned, but its the adressing of the collateral damage( both seen and yet-to-be identified) between now and then that is our current focus and priority.

The wiser of us will hopefully share the info, insights, observations etc.,….see the pitfalls and traps, avoid them , if not outright stay on the sidelnes, till the dust settles.

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Mind you, they'll need to have a grasp of market rents. Onni doesn't get it yet, as they are charging about the same as the specuvestors. And they are not renting, as these are still available (posted previously):

http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/apa/981017363.h… http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/apa/981015807.h… http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/apa/981015221.h…

These are the dregs, the left-overs, the ones that wouldn't sell. Onni needs to get a clue.

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Vancouver Sun column on the olypmic village

Microsoft layoffs?

They only relatively recently opened their richmond center too… they were supposed to hire up to 800 people, but i don't know how that went. i distinctly remember seeing one mls property for a richmond apartment with text "…close to Microsoft".

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So you compared the stats on sales to the units that haven't sold and that tells you prices haven't dropped?!?

Riiiiight, We'll just ignore those nasty MLS stats and believe you that the market is fine.. Afterall, the real estate ads say its always a great time to buy and someone put a leaky condo for sale on craigslist asking $1 billion dollars.

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You are right about all of that, but there is another important point to consider; the VCI posters you are referring to are conflating 'negative' and 'bearish', which is simply a projection. People who are hoping for the market to climb see people who expect the market to drop as being 'negative'. I'll put my money on rational analysis over hope any day. It has worked out for me reasonably well so far.

I can assure you, though, that MrBear is a positive bear. Heck, I think all us bears are happy right now, even if we perhaps engage in a bit too much schadenfreude. So be happy! Pray for more deflation, since it would be good for the Vancouver economy in the long run, and for more rain, to get rid of this blasted snow! Happy, happy, deflate, wait, and buy if/when it suits you! And don't let the 'negative' bulls get you down!

Oh, and I agree with your thoughts in #257 about renting from trapped flippers, too. I'd move out of town before I'd rent one of their places, ready to be evicted on the bank's schedule. I'm too old for that game. I grumble about Hollyburn, (the stories I could tell…) but I know they like me for my money.

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Yeah I shouldn't bait like that. I knew what you meant

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It time to either re – write the rule book or draft another one.

Dumb specuvestors advertising for tenants on CraigsList are simply treading water…a desparate grab for cash. They are hoping this " rent" money is sufficient bridge – financing while betting the market will turnaround.

—Prediction based on the aforementioned:

These units will have a revolving door of ownership, (foreclosures, auctions, court – ordered sales etc), leading to unstable scenario for the renter.

People will migrate to rental units that have historically been rental units. Owners of many of these units are well established, likely debt/mortgage free or close to it, know the ropes as landlords, and can best weather the economic storm. Vacancy to them is simply "lost income", but not a tipping point to bankruptcy or foreclosure. These established landlords may be willing to negotiate, but I think they will do quite well when the specuvestor tenants start to bail for the reasons I have outlined.

—The past is the best prediction of the future:

In " thinking outside the box" … we already have an oversupply of finished product. Some had previously posted a rumour of a developer ready to auction off some of their condo product. RE Auctions have already occurred in BC…on news was Vancouver Island RE condo auction last summer(which I found strange then,…. but perhaps in hindsight a "RE canary in the mine" warning sign of a market correction).

The owners of finshed condo product may be in denial, but the developers of condo product still being constructed may not be in denial,they clealry see the writing on the wall,… and these may be primed for auction by desperate developers etc. who have no choice to accept any UNreserved offer.

This would create a tsunami like shock wave

to those wishful thinkers of existing condo product who are holding on….as the auction prices of the NEWEST condo product set a new benchmark(plus the fact they are newer).

Again, the condo product that is still being constructed in a collapsed market is the looming iceberg which may soon both flood the market and further depress whatever the market price was or would have been.

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I would not say that the rents should increase in Vancouver because the rents in Toronto are higher – that is really bad conclusion. For example I could compare Vancouver with New York, and get even more compelling comparison?

I would say since condos are way more cheaper in Toronto, that Vancouver prices should come down a bit. But that would be exactly what everybody else is saying on this site.. heh..

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The 3 weeks of snow could be used as an excuse that affected the economy , whether it be RE or other consumer purchases

December, due to the weather and the holiday season may have held back the floodgates of bad news.

However, I predict the floodgates will begin to open in January 2009

However, some VCI posters have claimed that there are too many NEGATIVE views on VCI.

However the truth IS the truth, the facts ARE the facts.

I have found it very hard to find any "island " of positive news. This global economic situation has created a global low tide that has affected all ships, I have not heard of any ships defying gravity suspended at the old high water mark.

Forewarned = forearmed.

Knowledge is power.

Adding a "negative" label to the truth/facts is one's subjective right of choice.

I consider this economic meltdown as THE biggest white collar crime spree in history with our failed leadership turning a blind eye. The average citizen is left twisting in the wind, in gridlock,numb, in shock, limbo,treading water, which way is up ?.

No sense dressing it up with the broken record siren calls of the so called experts who try to sugar coat and consider this part of a NORMAL cycle. What IS normal about it…? this is unprecedented.

It sounds "negative" but the facts support this bitter truth.

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