Friday Free-for-all!
It’s Friday, and that means it’s time for the Free-for-all, our open topic discussion and news round-up post. Here are a few stories I’ve noticed lately to kick off the conversation:
-Olympic Village may cost Vancouver taxpayers $875 Million
-Property assesments basically unchanged from last year
-Property tax inequality?
-Banks: ‘business as usual’ as economy slides into recession
-Vancouver-based Teck-Cominco cuts 1400 jobs
-Central bank to ’stress test’ for risk
-Canadian pension plan solvency at record lows
-US pending home sales plunge to record lows
-Manhattan luxury housing feels the pinch
-Want to write for Vancouvercondo.info?
So what are you seeing out there? Post your thoughts, links and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!
note: any conversation on Vancouver, real estate or economics is allowed, please keep it civilized. When posting articles please only quote pertinent points and link to the original instead of pasting the entire article here. Pasting a link into your comment will automatically create a clickable hot-link.
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realpaul Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 10:09 pm
I happen to be first, do I get a prize?
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browntown Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 10:22 pm
oh yah nutsters! look out for obama bounce followed up by inflation monster!
james grant says
“there are risks to creating a trillion or so of new currency but that is tomorrows worry. frostbite victims tend not to dwell on the summertime perils of heatstroke”
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exx Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 10:47 pm
Here’s the latest update to my Price Reduced Sales to Assessment Comparison. Bottom line? In August the areas I track sold at an average of 5.3% *above* assessment. Last month? -8.2%. Ouch.
And my coworker, the one that has been trying to sell his place since late August, just reduced the price on his property another $20K. That’s an 18% reduction since list, which also puts his property at 18% below assessment. I hope this last reduction gets him an offer, he *really* needs to sell. At 18% below assessment you’d think somebody would be all over it, just goes to show how reluctant buyers are – or they can’t get the financing.
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Matt Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 10:51 pm
http://www.vancouversun.com/Bu.....story.html
“The news from Vancouver’s Olympic Village is becoming dire. And next Thursday is the day this billion-dollar financial minefield could blow up for the world to see.
That’s when the companies that are building Vancouver’s billion-dollar Olympic Village hope to access more of a $750-million construction loan from Wall Street, to keep constructing the crown jewel of Canada’s 2010 Winter Olympics.
But suddenly, there’s a problem in getting that money. The city might have to offer as much as half a billion dollars in loan guarantees as security, significantly more than the $100 million it has already put up to keep the Olympic Village construction going.”
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MrBear Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 11:07 pm
Hey, no reason for bulls to worry! Things are looking up down South, so we should be OK soon, right? Right? Here:
Average Mortgage Rate Hits 5%, Lowest in Decades
“The Federal Reserve’s plan to coax mortgage rates lower is working: rates on 30-year fixed loans fell for the 10th consecutive week to the lowest levels in decades, according to a recent Freddie Mac survey.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01.....r=1&hp
Oh, wait a minute, maybe I should include the second paragraph…
“What is not clear, however, is whether rates are attractive enough to lure a significant number of home buyers back into the ailing housing market.”
Yowch. Lowest rates since Freddie Mac’s tracking started in 1971, and it may not bring people into the market. Not a warm fuzzy thought if you’re in a hurry to sell, I’m guessing.
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Vansanity Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 11:10 pm
More and more people I talk to keep saying they think this is the bottom. I think the market psychology just went back from anger to denial. I have no idea how they’re arriving at such a conclusion but I’ll let them keep thinking it.
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islander Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 11:23 pm
….More and more people I talk to keep HOPING this is the bottom…..
/fixed
My financial advisor keeps HOPING the market has bottomed. Working people HOPE their jobs are safe. Politicians HOPE all the money they’re stealing from me to give to their corporate pals will pull us out of the ditch.
None of this HOPING has any basis in reality.
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Goldman Sucks Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 12:15 am
Building analyst warns 2009 is a ‘bad time to buy a home’ as jobs vanish
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Patiently Waiting Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 2:18 am
On Craigslist I’ve found several CAP REIT listings that offer 12th month free rent. They are in New West, Coquitlam, Richmond etc. The small-time specuvestors don’t stand a chance when competing against the big landlords.:)
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asalvari Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 3:34 am
Vansanity:
I actually politely send them to this url:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qI6DJ0VkBMQ
If they are smart enough they will get it..
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 6:59 am
Post #4 Re the Olympic Village
Thursday = D – Day ?
Its got to happen sooner or later.
I seeem to recall that Vancuver has used up most of its available cash on hand. The rest of its so called assets are locked up in Real Estate.
So how can Vancouver provide loan guarantees of $500 Million?
Isn’t its annual City budget approx. $ 1 billion?
FROM Canadian Federation Of Independent Business
Report to City of Vancouver Feb . 2007
http://www.fcei.ca/legis/bc/pdf/bc08100.pdf
QUOTE:
City spending drives property tax increases. CFIB is concerned that for the past number of years, spending has exceeded the sum of inflation and population growth combined. For example, the City of Vancouver’s operating budget in 2000 was $610.9 million. In order to keep pace with population and inflation growth, the budget should have increased by 17.1 per cent between 2000 and 2006 (see figure 6). While an operating budget of $715.4 million in 2006 would have kept real per capita spending at 2000 levels, the actual budget for 2006 was $813.3 million. Had the City kept spending in check over the past six years, it could have reduced annual tax revenues by $97.9 million, making a significant difference to the tax load faced by businesses.”
In 2007 the City Budget was approx. $840 Million
If the financing costs are pegged at approx. $50 Million just to pay the interest…OUCH for the Principal payment on an asset that has all the indications of missing all fiscal projections by a huge margin.
The Local Gov’t Act allows City to enter into such Private Sector Ventures. However Local Gov’ts must not run deficits, they must run a balanced budget.
My understanding is that re: A-N-Y Loan the Local Gov’t wishes to acquire , it must first seek the approval of the voters in a referendum. (I realize Vancovuer has their own Charter but my guess is they are also obligated to do this)
I highly doubt the Vancouver Council will go cap in hand to the Voters… that would expose this scandal even more.
(ONLY) SOLUTION: HIGHER Property Taxes !!!
Between now and say March -April 2008 …the sh*t will hit the fan in Vancouver (if one sees how this breaks down into simply digestible terms)
Unless Vancovuer sell or mortages off some of its RE assets into a declining RE market…all indiciations Vancouver taxpayers will get whacked with a MAJOR tax increases. Business which already get hit hard by property taxes will BAIL from Vancouver.
Premier Campbell’s neck etc will be on the line. They have already given Vancouver an OVER budget almost $1 Billion Trade and Exhibition Center.(cost = approx Vancouver entire annual operating budget).
To Be Continued…..
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alexcanuck Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 7:38 am
No-lympics: Just to be fair, Vancouver has fairly good financial management, and is certainly capable of that size of loan guarantee. It won’t cost taxpayers a penny IF (and here is where I stop quibbling and come into full agreement) a miracle happens, the economy recovers, the worldwide credit bubble starts up again, the olympics a great success, the world (the rich bits, anyway) moves to Vancouver and leaky shoebox condo prices resume their march to infinity and beyond!
I feel the chances of this working out well is roughly the same as the chances of Kits beach being wall to wall bikini babes today! (Or speedo studs, so as not to offend)
Also, something is up with Chipman’s blog. Last night I could refresh and get new comments after some posts here asking what’s up, now my blog bookmark leads to his main site, and his links to blog show 403 error. I hope it is just technical, it is so cowardly to just shut in the night without a word.
But do expect a lot of businesses to do just that this year and next. Unless the aforementioned miracle happens.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 7:55 am
Vancouver Olympic Village fiasco:(Cont’d)
As noted previously…Vancouver will be drafting its budget in March and April 2009 . However the Olympic Village mess may hit the wall on Thursday.
Vancouver is in a pickle re: this one single Olympic Village deal to the tune of what amounts to its annual operating budget .
Campbell is also in a pickle .
My guess is he wants to help out…but he won’t or can’t. And he better not.
My view is the City of Vancouver is caught BETWEEN
(i) the ” rock ” of enacting its legislated right to engage in a Private Sector venture versus
(ii) the “hard place” re: legislation that states it must have a balanced annual budget.
Forget the Feds…they have enough trouble all over Canada.
If Premier Campbell intervenes in ANY way…he will open the floodgates of pissed – off citizens and angry Local Gov’t Councils.
They will demand that Campbell assist them in their own Local Gov’ts Private Sector venture.
As I said, Vancouver Trade and Exhibition Center is 100% over budget, the Province kicked in another $ 400+ million..total cost is now almost $1 Billion. They will claim its is not Vancouver’s . ..but who cares? ….it is built with BC Taxpayers money, IN Vancouver and will benefit Vancouver.
Enough BC Gov’t funding of Vancouver white elephants. Time to spay and neuter them, at least wean them off our BC Gov’t tax dollars
In essence you , the Vancouver taxpayers, are or will be obligated to:
—fund a project that is only 1/3 sold in a collapsing market ,
—fund a project which was projecting high – end prices at the ass -end of False Creek .
—you can NOT cancel the project…
—it has to be completed by Oct. 2009,or IOC penalties kick in.
—given the current and foreseeable market,a profit will not be realized
—this glut of product you are obligated to help finance affects YOUR OWN property value ie (lots of)Supply versus Demand(low)
— City won’t cut their losses and “fire- sale” the project …. yet your own Local Gov’t implies it will hold on till the market gets better (LOL), thus incurr even more financing costs ?
—Now political ego kicks in (ahhhhh!!!) at YOUR expense.
—No wriggle room….really no way to delay this till after the Olympics…the money has to be sourced NOW and the funding secured NOW to complete this certifiable ” Grade A ” white elephant , all has to happen VERY VERY soon.
–In just over a year…after the 2010 (5) ring circus leaves town….the Olympic Village will look like an RE cemetery, a monument to this disaster.
–The Brits will crap…they are already feeling this pain (4) years ahead of the 2012 games they so called “won” . Vancouvers 2010 fiasco will be a constant reminder.
Some sympathy Vancouver, , that’s it.
However, just don’t dare ask me, in the capacity as either a B.C or Canadian citizen, to help pay for what is YOUR problem. As I said in an earlier post,I highly doubt you would have shared the Olympic Village profits with the rest of us, you CANNOT have it BOTH ways.
Vancouver Taxpayers…good bloody luck, you are going to need it. This is the “PERFECT STORM” before, during and after 2010.
Waxing philosophically …What would it be like if you had voted down 2010 Olympics ?
Hindsight is 20/20 err 20/10 ?
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 8:16 am
Post # 12
QUOTE:
” I feel the chances of this working out well is roughly the same as the chances of Kits beach being wall to wall bikini babes today!”
Funny you said that.
I just got back from my jog down at Kits with Sam Sullivan, , and these posters were being handed out by concerned Kits area citizens. (see link below).
http://www.alittlesomethingfor.....6/Scam.pdf
(These were seen in the general area of Kits beach).
I guess that miracle to cancel the Perfect Storm due to hit Vancouver is here. Call Bob Rennie and make an offer (before John snaps them up) !!!
Oh yeah….. and Esther Lo will be coming back to work for the City !
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alexcanuck Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 8:17 am
Re: Chipman’s blog. Everything on the site is down, except the main page, so either it is technical, or he has absconded to South America with all the rent money from his clients.
Just joking on the latter! Sheesh, lighten up. If he was to abscond he wouldn’t tip anyone like that.
Speaking of ways to cheat, either people or taxpayers, check out the clever way UBS is dealing with the IRS.
The IRS has been pressuring Swiss bank UBS to release records of Americans they suspect of having undeclared money. Lots of it! UBS has closed the accounts, and sent the clients a cheque, all nice and legal. If the client CASHES the check, the IRS has the paper trail they to bust their asses. So the client has to choose, go to jail, or kiss off their ill-gotten gains. I think UBS gets to declare the money abandoned in a year, and keep it.
Clever, eh?
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cookie Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 8:24 am
Alexcanuck:
re: rob’s blog.
yes, i had the same concern this morning.
however if you click around at other parts of his site, you get the same error message. so i’m hoping that it’s just a technical, not-ready-for-prime-time problem. and we’ll all regain access to our daily fix.
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vancouverboom2 Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 8:24 am
UNBELIEVABLE
VANCOUVER Absolutley showing no respect to it’s opponents cities,Sitting out dumbs are patting their foreheads in jolted dissappointments,All dumbos are asking themself a very comman single question and that is Why were we waiting for that long?.to save money/make money?.but what happend?.Condo prices? are picking up and home prices?. are also picking up Did you ever have to make up your mind before Owners vs Renter Combat Call your realtor today and say good bye to three year of false speculations because hey VANCOUVER REAL ESTATE NEVER GO DOWN.
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Lily pad Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 8:38 am
Patiently Waiting: Here is what I found re: free rent on craigslist. Are these the ones you were referring to?
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....;bedrooms=
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 8:46 am
Post # 17
QUOTE:
VANCOUVER Absolutley showing no respect to it’s opponents cities,
“opponent cities” ?
Yes ,very clever,VB2, that IS the future.
The Metro Vancouver area will evolve into feudal ” opponent city ” states.
SkyTrain will have border crossings at City limits with armed guards set up.
Vancouver will be bankrupt by May 2010.
Vancouver Property can be had for the contents of a homeless person’s shopping cart.
What wise old VancouverBoom2 is actually implying is a “future prediction”.
“Vancouver Real Estate Never Go Down “is because it will be worthless…can’t go below zero(unless they , mostly ex-Rich Asians , pay you to take it).
PS:
I want first dibs on Casa Mia and Stanley Park !
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Van-zee Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 8:46 am
“As I said, Vancouver Trade and Exhibition Center is 100% over budget, the Province kicked in another $ 400+ million..total cost is now almost $1 Billion. They will claim its is not Vancouver’s . ..but who cares?”
Well the sad thing is it seems that trade shows are a thing of the past and not the future or even present. The internet has really changed the way things get done for many businesses. If you are in business where do you get your new information about a product or service? Where are you going to provide information to future prospects?
The internet has Fucked up many of “old ways” of doing things and fundamentally changed most businesses. Things that seemed rock solid like newspapers now seem to be on the endangered list.
Is there a future in trade shows and conventions? Is the Vancouver convention center going to be a failure in more ways than just cost overruns?
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Richmond Rich Renter Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 8:54 am
From the Globe and Mail: Deepening economic gloom cost Canada 34,400 jobs last month –12,200 more than economists had been forecasting – with the big hit coming to full-time positions, especially in construction, Statistics Canada said Friday.
The unemployment rate was 6.6 per cent, the highest level since January, 2006. This is up from 6.3 per cent in November, when 70,600 jobs disappeared.
“Today’s dismal data offer additional strong evidence that the Canadian economy has quickly waded knee-deep into recession,” Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets
And from our PC Peanut Gallery:
‘My own belief is if we were going to have some sort of big crash or recession, we probably would have had it by now.
Stephen Harper, September 15 2008.’
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Draken is an? Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 9:03 am
Those numbers are from opponents cities.
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Patiently Waiting Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 9:05 am
Lily pad,
Yes, the ones in the 800s like this one:
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....54254.html
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Tony Danza Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 9:07 am
I wonder if Sam Sullivan and Petard Ladner have ever heard of a Joshua Tree enema? I’ll be first in line to JT those realtards.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 9:09 am
Trade and Convention centers:
(Tourism) Richmond had wanted to build a Trade and Exhibition Center, it had been planning one for over 10 years, but recently pulled the plug (NOV. 2008) with a formal letter to the City stating as such ie its a dead duck.
The letter to the City stated that its offshore financing had dried up and it was also dependent on 20 acres of Federally -owned land and only IF it came out of the ALR. The capital costs were over $ 100 Million,( as per usual the costs kept increasing from the original cost ) and years ago Richmond Hotels were permitted to levy a room tax to help fund it.
Surrey was also in the process of planning one (I recall 400,000 + sq, ft.) in the Cloverdale area.
Don’t know its current status.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 9:13 am
Joshua tree enema?
Looks mighty painful:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yucca_brevifolia
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Tony Danza Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 9:14 am
Is there a future in trade shows and conventions?
Don’t worry the Realturds, mortgage brokers and home builders will hold their annual conferences there allowing the convention center to turn a profit, those guys are loaded…what?
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Anonymous Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 9:17 am
NO -LYMPICS: You’re a sexist pig.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 9:35 am
28 Anonymous Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 9:17 am
NO -LYMPICS: You’re a sexist pig.
Translation:-
—-You have already e-mailed the “link” onto 100’s of others.
—-You are all down at Kits beach in your speedos holding binoculars.
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Patiently Waiting Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 9:36 am
OT -
So, I was watching BNN and they were saying that this quarter would be the best time to buy a new Japanese car. Reason being the C$ is falling so the current incentives are temporary. Is this just hype or is there truth to it?
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richard1 Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 9:39 am
job losses.
i find this bit interesting… “Construction layoffs drove the decline, as the sector lost 44,300 full-time jobs to register one of the sharpest monthly drops in more than three decades. ”
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Drachen Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 9:42 am
You think Vancouver is bad?
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gadwin Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 9:46 am
Since the SFH detached benchmark has dropped from $771K in May to $648K by December, specuvestors are out $122K in half a year.
Wake up specuvestors, we are in the worst real estate crash in the last 75 years, how much more money will you bleed before you have to declare bankruptcy?
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blueskies Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 9:59 am
i just looked at BC assessment prices for the Pomaria on Howe st.
a lot of these apartments are down
by over $100K from the selling prices that the flippers got.
nice building but that kind of haircut has got to sting……..
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Normally Lurking Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 9:59 am
Just how much are the IOC penalties? If the city is about to blow its (our) brains out on a massive loser condo deal, perhaps simply paying a penalty is a better choice?!?
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Lily pad Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 10:03 am
Patiently Waiting: Yes, Patiently Waiting, I believe it is just hype. They want to take advantage of the “crisis” and their wishful thinking that it is temporary to get your contract on a 5-6 year loan now.
I understand that car leases are no longer an option, so they have to push the loans. Don’t fall for the pressure. Cars will be much cheaper in the future, I believe, because they will include more widely distributed hybrid technology.
From a question-answer with Jeremy Cato:
http://www.globeinvestor.com/s.....2/GIStory/
“Mark Armstrong writes: Many are excited about the Chevrolet Volt and the move towards electric cars. Unfortunately, at the rumoured price of $40,000 it will fail, if it even sees the light. Is this technology really that expensive? If GM is truly believe this is the future, surely they’d make it affordable to the masses, even if it is initially a loss leader.
Jeremy Cato: Hi Mark:
There is that rumoured $40,000 price tag, though nothing is official yet. For the consumer, though, it will be much less. The U.S. Government has already passed legislation for a subsidy program to the tune of $7,500 and the Volt qualifies. So right off, say that $40,000 is real, for the consumer the price will be $32,500. There may also be state and local subsidies to push the real cost down even lower.
The technology is expensive for three reasons:
1. The batteries. Probably worth about $10,000 per car, though the cost should go down a lot once volumes go up.
2. Up front research and development. GM said in its statement to Congress that it’s investing $750 million to develop the Volt. First-year sales are project to be about 10,000 units, ramping up to 60,000 in the second year. GM has to build in its costs to the pricing.
3. Contingencies: The Volt’s batteries and many other technologies are completely unproven. Therefore, GM must build into the pricing structure the worse-case scenario for warranty costs, depreciation and so on. This is just the way business is done.
I would expect to see the price tag of Volt-like technology drop dramatically within two year of launch in 2010. GM wants to make it affordable for the masses, but as you well know, it can’t afford loss leaders right now.”
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 10:07 am
Olympics, Trade and Conventions Centers, et al.
Yeasrs ago I listened to an interview on the radio re the Olympics. An investigative reporter named Andrew Jennings had written a book titled ” Lords of the Rings”.
Sequel is “New Lords of the Rings”.
http://joeclark.org/lords.html
Basically the Olympics is promoted as some altruistic event masking a rather corrupt underbelly full of hidden agendas. Cutting to the chase…much like getting a backstage pass to a rock concert…the Politicians in host-victim Olympic cities are awe -struck and arm -twisted into hosting this 2 week Olympic party.
The Olympic movement breaks it down (2 )ways
(i) IOC sees the given host-victim cities star-struck politicians as the KEY and THE KEY to the vault…as convincing this disproportionately empowered minority of elected representatives is all it takes.
(ii) The Host-victim City’s citizens wil be converted into long -term “cash -cow slaves” and obligated by these star- struck elected representatives to pay and pay dearly for this Olympic party.
Litany after litany of host-victim Olympic cities have lost and lost big time. They have been left with massive debt and the Olympics have not been the long term and comprehensive economic generators as they have been promoted within the bidding cities…only a select few groups benefit from the Olympics in almost formulaic fashion.
–Why does each new host-victim city feel it is different?
–There is NO historical evidence to suggest that it will be any different.
–Why do they continually ignore this ?
–When will the world wake up and gang up on the IOC? ….its almost like their main agenda is to wreak economic havoc throughout the world.
==============================================
The same insidious lobbying side show happens with Trade and Convention Centers.(To be continued…)
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Alexas Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 10:07 am
Let’s forget Olympic Village, leave it as is and instead have City, Olympic Comity or whomever’s in charge to rent fancy condos from flippers/specuvestors for two weeks and give it to athletes during the Games. I guess we have a plenty of available “villages” all over the place, they are already built and this will be a way cheaper for everyone. Needless to say that smart condo investors would make some good profit too.
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Vansanity Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 10:26 am
islander:
I agree, it is wishful thinking. Just a quick look at headlines today and we see:
Job losses mounting, with Flaherty expecting massive job losses for 2009;
Building permits drop 11% in value in Nov from Oct. lowest in 21 months;
Millenium approaching deadline on financing;
Ya… I think we’re about ready for another bubble or two. Why not, eh? lol!
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Bubble Lad Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 10:31 am
RE: front page of Sun/ Olympic Village:
So I’m guessing it’s safe to call this as the “Vancouver wakes up after the kegger in a pile of its own sick” moment?
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Bubble Lad Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 10:38 am
37 NO-Lympics – am currently reading “Confession of an Economic Hit Man” detailing how the US destroys countries around the world. The plan sounds basically the same as the Olympic committee!
1) Sell a mega-project to a country that needs “development” (usually some form of massive infrastructure nightmare). By appealing to a small cadre of powerful people at the top of the economic pyramid who will benefit with contracts, leaving everyone else to “suck it”.
2) Get them so massively in debt to build these “developments” that they will spend the next 2-3 generations trying to pay it off (at the expense of the people at the bottom who never wanted the f-ing thing in the first place).
3) When the country can’t pay (and it’s purposefully designed so it’s not a possibility) dictate different terms: military bases, political decision making etc).
So where are the Olympic People chomping on their over-sized cigars: “I love it when a plan comes together.”
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 10:40 am
35 Normally Lurking Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 9:59 am
Just how much are the IOC penalties? If the city is about to blow its (our) brains out on a massive loser condo deal, perhaps simply paying a penalty is a better choice?!?
======================================================
That IS the problem with the IOC Mafia:
You may never know till the sh*t hits the fan, but by then it’s too late !
The Host City has effectively entered into a quasi P-3 venture , a business agreement with the IOC.
Provincial legislation allows the City to do so, , and they may not be obligated to disclose any of such contracts details due to weasel- words like “Confidentiality” , ” Business/trade secrets ” etc.etc.
Concurrently ,…the IOC would impose the same restrictions on releasing such contact info. That last thing the IOC wants is the Public being made aware in technicolor that they have been sold down the river. We need to maintain this G-L-O-W of being deemed ” a World Class City ” blessed by the benevolent IOC into hosting the Olympics (at least till the IOC bandits leave town in late Feb. 2010 ).
In a rather perverse way “I feel quite confident ” that the IOC would make absolutely sure that the penalties for Non Completion /Breach of Contract in anything Olympic -related will be to such a degree of severity the Host-Victim City will not even think about it. Hence, and cost overruns to be incurred will pale in comparison to F*cking with the IOC’s Olympic baby. Add to that your stooopppiiidd politicians who will not let reality get in the way of their egos.
Or ….put it this way, if you were the IOC , would you not do the same ?
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 10:57 am
Post # 41 Bubble Lad
A ONE – TWO punch
(1)Mega projects to create a debt ridden enslaved society
(2) Exacerbate it, if not camouflage it with false hope to enslaved citizens specuvestors with sub -prime and 0/40 loans
The bubble bursts only after the cream “froth” was skimmed by the vested interests.
Your Economic Hit Man story made me recall a CIA operative who broke his silence on how they work Gov’ts(mostly 3rd world dictatorships). He stated that the US tries a 3 stage approach:
(i) to co-opt the leadership with bribes,
but if that fails
(ii) stir up crowds (say a few hundred to a few thousand) hired to give the “appearance of revolt” against the leadership, then put it in the media…
but if that fails to overthrow them
(iii) outright assassinate them
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kansai_92 Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 10:58 am
I am seeing an insane amount of rental listings on CL in downtown/yaletown.
Coopers Lookout alone has a dozen or more being advertised by Prompton.
H&H completed. Elan, Raffles. Flagship is completing… Mariner. Firenze, Espana, TV Towers 1,2,3, the list just keeps piling on.
Boom, boom, boom! Anybody???
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Bubble Lad Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 11:12 am
43 – No-lympics – that’s in there too! It’s a chilling read. I recommend it.
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realpaul Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 11:13 am
I guess I found out how lonely it is at the top boo hoo. Meanwhile todays jobs numbers are bleak
http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
Statistics Canada disclosed Friday that the rate jumped to 6.6 per cent last month from 6.3 per cent in November, as the economy bled another 34,400 jobs, and federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty warned that the country is facing a “difficult year” and “continuing job losses
The CDN numbers are 58% higher than the numbers the government had been suggesting in the lead up. The US numbers indicate a cascading effect down. YIKES.
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Anonymous Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 11:20 am
RE: #44 post
yeppers
looks like rentals are imploding
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jesse Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 11:20 am
Does anybody know if unemployment numbers include severance payouts. For example if a plant closes and everyone gets 2 weeks per year of service, when is that registered as being “unemployed” or “employed” — as soon as severance starts or after severance is finished?
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Supraboy Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 11:21 am
SEATTLE (AP) — Airplane maker Boeing Co. says it plans to cut about 4,500 jobs this year due to the global economic slowdown.
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realpaul Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 11:21 am
The CMHC has tried to massage the news as best they can but the numbers are just awful.
” The plunge in construction full time jobs is the most in 30 years”. Heres the full article
http://www.globeinvestor.com/s.....9/GIStory/
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 11:22 am
Trade and Convention Centers:
These seem to be like a Wayne Gretzky Rookie Card..everyone has to have one…
It seem to be on the Must Have list in order to be a World Class City
As Post # 20 Van – Zee says…
QUOTE:
Well the sad thing is it seems that trade shows are a thing of the past and not the future or even present. The internet has really changed the way things get done for many businesses. If you are in business where do you get your new information about a product or service? Where are you going to provide information to future prospects?
The internet has Fucked up many of “old ways” of doing things and fundamentally changed most businesses. Things that seemed rock solid like newspapers now seem to be on the endangered list.
==================================
People and businesses may stay lean and mean, and no longer able to afford these “Trade Exhibitions” or “Conventions”
It seem that all over the world especially North America, these things have grown like weeds. The market is oversaturated with them .
We were in Penticton in the fall of 2007…and lo and behold, they have a Trade and Conventions Center. We were there on the Nov. the place was empty except for a Remembrance day ceremony. Penticton is pretty dead in Nov. when the sun goes on holiday.
Nanaimo , anothe small town has built one.(BTW: deal tied to the Millenium group)
My view is the local Tourism industry takes cue from the IOC and simply bamboozles the Local Gov’t that Tourism is a green and growing industry which will create lots of jobs(after the other well paying jobs have disappaeared). The Politicians (who love such large monuments with brass plaques proudly displaying their names as their legacy) drink this special “economic salvation” brand of “Trade and Convention Center kool -aid”.
What they have in common with the Olympics is that they tend to be major white elephants.
However, once they are built, their design and intended use is hard to change, the Tourist industry has again recieved a massive subsidy from the local taxpayers, knowing full well the building won’t be torn down,sold or converted from the original use, as THAT that would be a major political embarrassment to the kool -aid drinking politicians.
Like the internet and a dying newspaper, these Trade and Exhibition centers may be displaced by new technology such as video conferencing etc..whether it be by Go Green zeitgeist, or by pure and simple economics and tax law changes .
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Supraboy Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 11:23 am
“Does anybody know if unemployment numbers include severance payouts. For example if a plant closes and everyone gets 2 weeks per year of service, when is that registered as being “unemployed” or “employed” — as soon as severance starts or after severance is finished?”
Are you next in line to get laidoff? Is that why you ask?
You’ll get 2 weeks, and companies are entitled to give you nothing if they wanted to do that. They’ll just give you the pink slip and make you sit there for 2-4 weeks.
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Patiently Waiting Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 11:24 am
Lily Pad,
Hmmm yeah, its tempting to replace my 8 year-old car but its still running fine. Best keep every penny because I’m not layoff-proof.
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realpaul Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 11:26 am
More than 100,000 jobs lost in the past 2 months. The tsunami is picking up speed and is nowhere near crest. Worse news to come says Finance minister
http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=1159942
I noted yesterday that a famous TV financial commentator had increased her ( Suzy Ormand) nessecary savings number from 2 to RIGHT MONTHS) . Seems like the recession circus is coming to town.
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realpaul Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 11:26 am
sorry that should be 8 months
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realpaul Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 11:31 am
US unemployment at 16 year high !!!!! I guess that cuts out the US surge of buyers for the Olympic Village.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/.....13641.html
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realpaul Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 11:33 am
someone was mentioning squirrel recently
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/foo.....lkers.html
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jesse Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 11:45 am
“Are you next in line to get laidoff? Is that why you ask?”
Who cares why I ask? The question is how statistics track layoffs. From what I can gather the definition of unemployment is people that have been looking to work in the past 4 weeks and are not employed. From that definition, unemployment numbers will take a few months before being registered in the statistics because many people being laid off will be on severance and not necessarily actively looking for work.
The real stat to look at is whether employment is decreasing. Unemployment is a lagging indicator for the reason I mentioned, notwithstanding that layoffs are lagging indicators in themselves. The fact that December unemployment is markedly higher shows that October and November job losses are finally starting to be recognized as people are now needing/wanting to look for work after a few months of paid introspection. With all the layoffs being announced in December and more through January, look for unemployment to increase more in the next few months.
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Supraboy Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 11:58 am
“Who cares why I ask? The question is how statistics track layoffs. From what I can gather the definition of unemployment is people that have been looking to work in the past 4 weeks and are not employed. From that definition, unemployment numbers will take a few months before being registered in the statistics because many people being laid off will be on severance and not necessarily actively looking for work.”
If you can write all that, you should be knowledgeable about severance. You’re just trying to confirm what you already know.
The big bad ugly numbers will be coming in March and April. Then when you get to May, nobody cares anymore because we’re all off on vacation for the summer.
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Supraboy Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 12:01 pm
“More than 100,000 jobs lost in the past 2 months. The tsunami is picking up speed and is nowhere near crest. Worse news to come says Finance minister”
70% of Vancouverites are jobless. Those numbers mean jack to Vancouver. Just go down to Richmond and check out the number of people enjoying dim sum grabbing the Tsing Tao Daily enjoying life. Nobody works in Vancouver, those that do just kill time in offices. I’ve worked in big tech companies in Vancouver and I’ve seen 80% of the employees surfing the net while the other 20% are the suckers holding up the boat and will continue to do so. Even I’m at home today enjoying life “working” from home.
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jesse Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 12:30 pm
“If you can write all that, you should be knowledgeable about severance.”
Wow you don’t read well, Supraboy. The question is one about how unemployment reports recent layoffs, not about what severance is.
“Just go down to Richmond and check out the number of people enjoying dim sum grabbing the Tsing Tao Daily enjoying life. “
They’re not included in the unemployment numbers because they’re not looking for work.
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Van-zee Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 12:35 pm
“Then when you get to May, nobody cares anymore because we’re all off on vacation for the summer.”
I think there’s going to be allot of people “taking some time off”, “freelancing” and ” vacationing” for more than just the summer. I think it sucks, but it seems to be reality right now. I originally thought that a condo seemed a bit pricey now I’m looking at a K wave heading straight for the beach.
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exx Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 1:37 pm
Just came across this ad on Craigslist for a 911sqft 2bed/2bath condo in one of the Infinity towers. It’s full of so much BS that I think I found SATV…
“You have everything to gain and nothing to loose at this price.” That typo must be on purpose right?
“Do the math. Do the market reaserch.” Another intentional typo?
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Reza Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 2:15 pm
The western provinces have been hit hard with unemployment. Perhaps the worst is yet to come
http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....y/Business
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blueskies Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 2:19 pm
7,000 jobs lost in B.C. construction industry
http://tinyurl.com/7wbhzr
i wonder how many of these were renting
“mortgage-helper” basement suites?
or how many bought into the “can’t lose”
investment condo paradigm?
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realpaul Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 2:21 pm
As I said before ” The Mellenium Olympic Village” project will be ‘ the prettiest crack house’ in the city. This from the city’s Olympic bid book
” The site will be either developed by the city or partially or wholly sold or leased to developers or non-profit housing societies.”
Verbatim! Now since they can’t sell it, since the developers gone broke and they can’t lease it ( except back to themselves) where is all the money going to come from?
So far the city is on the hook for the initial $193, MILL plus the bailout $100 MILL for a laughable total of ( drum roll please)
***** $293, 000,000.00 Million Dollars with the debt service charges going up, the costs out of control and the value going down like a stone. “Wheeeeeeeee, we’re all gonna die” says Munchkin Mayor Gregor Roberts.
City council has to meet next week to table docs, it will be interesting to see if little Greggy Roberts even shows up or if he runs off to Mexico like he did when the snow started falling. What a clown this kid is !!!!
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Lily pad Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 2:24 pm
Patiently Waiting: Yes, keep your old car. I traded my mazda in for a mustang gt in 2007 and although I would do it again in the flash because it is so much fun to have a convertible (I doubt I will ever buy a hard-top again), when I think about how much more I could have had in savings I think — now why did I do that? I would feel much more financially independent if I still had the mustang money in the bank. And believe financial security is HIGHLY related to good mental and physical health. So if you do decide to take the plunge I HIGHLY recommend a convertible. You will love it! It is like going on a PNE ride everytime I get into the car, that’s the only way I can describe the feeling.
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The hang over Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 2:26 pm
Blueskies, you wouldn’t believe how many construction workers “invested” in the projects they were working on.
It was a sure thing the experts in the push up bras told them.
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realpaul Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 2:28 pm
exx:
Obviously Patrick Kim ( the listing agent) is an idiot. Yes the market has fallen but how does what he say’s relate to reality?
The market came down 20% already from peak of 2007 september, if the sky falls
and market crashes another 20% you still win at this price.”
The fact is if the market continues to plummet eartward the price of this turkey may me MUCH LOWER VERY SOON. This vendor is one runner in a marathon race to the bottom.
An old maxim in the market is “The market doesn’t care what you paid”. I am going to say that these condos will probably fall well below $100,000.00 before all is said and done. Surrey construction jobs are leading the huge decline in unemployment who’s going to buy this concrete crap.
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realpaul Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 2:37 pm
exx:
And I guess you know that this new comparable ( listing price) resets the value on all units in the building. Wait for the court ordered sales to come onto the market that have to be sold immediatly, then you’ll see some ‘price reductions’. Divorce, estate, bankruptcy, scared shitless, job loss etc., all these factors will force new numbers onto the listing agents who will the have to face the angry vendors into losses of 50% and more.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 2:42 pm
Post # 60
Supraboy says
Nobody works in Vancouver, those that do just kill time in offices. I’ve worked in big tech companies in Vancouver and I’ve seen 80% of the employees surfing the net while the other 20% are the suckers holding up the boat and will continue to do so.
============================
We call that 80 % Civil Servants.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 2:51 pm
Just heard on the news that the Tribune(U.S.) filed for bankruptcy and the Seattle Post Intelligencer may be gone soon.
Makes me think….can Vancouver support (2) daily newspapers ? (ie Sun versus Province )
I don’t think so:
Questions:
Which one do you think WILL go ?
Which one do you think SHOULD go ?
When the RE market rebounds in Spring 2009…where will all the full page ads from Rennie Marketing go ?
Maybe they don’t need advertising, they will be snapped up like hotcakes . I’m guessing that Asian lady aka ” I buy tree an my huzzba buy tree ” will be at the front of the line.
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Greed gets screwed Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 2:52 pm
Read the story of Andy and Fiona:
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009...../#comments
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realpaul Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 2:53 pm
the unemployment numbers are worse than you think. Shadowstats numbers show unemployment may be as high as 17.5%. This is not an article for the thinking challenged.
http://money.cnn.com/2009/01/0.....2009010915
#71 , and unionized workers.
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realpaul Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 3:00 pm
Greed gets screwed:
So, if Calgary is crashing right on cue ( oil and construction biz in alta is down the toilet) then by extension the Okanogan markets must be swirling down the bowl, given that the majority of ‘investors’ in the Okie were from Alta.
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realpaul Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 3:05 pm
OK the official stats just announced stated 46000 construction jobs were lost. They say it’s only going to get worse. If the good folks at “Shadow stats” are correct then the number of jobs which don’t get tracked officially are much much higher, because this would be all the self employed and ancilliary labour and service jobs. Canada unemployment is most likely over 10% now and growing but the government stats only track the ‘filed for unemployment ‘ stats. Everybody knows that if you’re self employed yo can’t collect unemployment Ins.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 3:08 pm
Construction jobs:
Up until the last boom, what I found was a lot of workers at job sites with license plates from Alberta, Saskatchewan etc.
During the more recent boom, I observed a lot more parties whose appearances suggested Hispanic backgrounds and few if any Out – of – Province license plates.
I am curious if many of these (and others )were workers who were allowed in on temporary visas. Will they go back home or will they try to immigrate to Canada or claim refugee status ? I am curious what our immigration policy will be in the near future during an economic downturn.
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realpaul Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 3:14 pm
With all these people losing thier jobs and asset money disappearing like Bob Rennies whistfully limp wristed fanning breeze off the go go boy floats at the Gay Pride Day , will there be anyone left to come to the 2010 games? Don’t count on the Europeans, the Americans , or the Chinese, who’s left?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/.....refer=home
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 3:14 pm
73 Greed gets screwed Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 2:52 pm
Read the story of Andy and Fiona:
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009…../#comments
================================================
That’s NOT Fiona and Andy:
That’s Conrad Black’s wife Barbara Amiel and Gene Hackman using aliases.
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Supraboy Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 3:43 pm
If there was a breakdown of which areas lost jobs in Canada, Vancouver would be a blip on the radar. Our city is well known for retired people to live here. Who the heck wants to work in Vancouver when you can hit the slopes during this time of the year. When summer rolls around, retired rich asians will take their kids to europe or hong kong and enjoy the summer. I’ll be taking a nice 3 month vacation from June till the end of August and I don’t give a rat’s ass about this city. Vancouver’s full of rich snobs and they don’t even shovel their own driveway. I shoveled the front of my house and some fart face parked on my spot, what kind of joke is this?
I hope property prices tank and I’ll buy his house and send him to Surrey where all the bums are.
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macchiato Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 3:43 pm
“Will they go back home or will they try to immigrate to Canada or claim refugee status ?”
I don’t think these temp. construction workers would qualify as refugees. I believe you would have to prove that staying in the home country poses imminent danger or persecution, or something of the like.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 3:49 pm
Post # 80 Supraboy says
QUOTE:
” I hope property prices tank and I’ll buy his house and send him to Surrey where all the bums are “.
Tsk Tsk:
Thse are enlightend times.
Shouldn’t say politicaly incorrect terms like “bums”:
Must instead refer to them as fiscally – challenged crackheads and losers.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 3:55 pm
Post # 78
realpaul says
“……like Bob Rennies whistfully limp wristed fanning breeze off the go go boy floats at the Gay Pride Day ” .
Are you implying Bob’s forte is to shaft people up the ying yang as a normal course of doing business ?
Say it isn’t so !!!
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realpaul Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 4:15 pm
NO -LYMPICS:
I calls ‘em as I sees ‘em
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vancouverboom2 Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 4:26 pm
In short, the profitability of the Olympic Village, whose condos were supposed to be sold to the public at great profit after being used by Olympic athletes, is no longer viewed as such a sure thing. In fact, those close to the deal — now watching condo prices drop dramatically — wonder if the deal will ever make a profit.
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vancouverboom2 Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 4:28 pm
Secondly, it no longer seems the Olympic Village condos can be quickly sold off by 2010, as was expected. That was what made this deal work.
The local real estate market has slowed dramatically. Only 250 of the 750 Olympic Village condos have been sold. The new plan — a prudent one — is to delay the sale of the others until the market rebounds and avoid fire-sale prices at taxpayers’ expense.
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HomesickButNotNuts Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 4:31 pm
Re: post #78 and post #83
As a Homo, I don’t mind being called Bent, Faggot, Shirtlifter, Bum Bandit, or Nancy. I do however draw the line at being called a Bob Rennie. Retract or I will be forced to beat you within an inch of your lives.
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realpaul Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 4:40 pm
#87 Please ( by all means) keep your pants on. Being called a ” Bob Rennie” is a curse reserved for the most reviled, the sick , the twisted, the scum of the earth.
It would certainly never apply to you, unless you’re really Bob ( that shit eating maggot) Rennie.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 4:45 pm
Post # 87
Touche’ !!!
BTW: I never heard of 4 out of those 5 references you made.
especially ” Nancy ” .
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HomesickButNotNuts Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 4:57 pm
Apology graciously accepted. I’m not Bob “spit” Rennie. I’m an expat living in the UK, who’s been watching the Vancouver market for the last couple years.
Back on topic, I have to tell you that this forum is the most astute on the issue. If anything, even it is a bit optimistic. You can feel the storm building, but you won’t believe how fast it turns and how brutal it hits.
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MickeyFinn Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 5:02 pm
My apologies if this has been discussed already but am I the only one questioning why the real estate board has not released the December data?
Typically the information is released by the 4th of the following month… November’s numbers for example were released on December 2nd.
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realpaul Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 5:06 pm
I just heard the 5:00 news with Mayor Roberts saying that Vancouver is on the hook with the Millenium Project for the entire amount of what is now OVER ONE BILLION DOLLARS !!!!
The city has been paying the bills for the past few months because Fortis can not come up with any money!!!
The current outlay from the COV stands at $850 million Dollars, thats just todays dollars. ONE BILLION AND COUNTING. Great deal for the COV taxpayers.
Knock knock knockin on Heavens door. Oh Gregor where was your goofy smile today. Where are we going to come up with the money to eliminate homelessness by 2015? This bozo is just about done.
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alexcanuck Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 5:15 pm
New colloquialisms, just for Vancouver. No more vilified, now you get renniefied!
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Lily pad Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 5:29 pm
MickeyFinn: Try here.
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Lily pad Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 5:29 pm
MickeyFinn: Oops.
http://www.realestatetalks.com.....p;start=15
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Aleks Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 5:45 pm
realpaul:
What’s the big deal? Gregor wanted to house the homeless, the city is being forced to build a 750 unit development. Seems like a good fit. Sure it’s expensive but so is everything governments do. Maybe they can get a homelessness grant from the province or feds.
Additionally, the Olympic Village should have a lot of extra amenities useful for housing the homeless, like cafeterias and exercise equipment. And it shouldn’t be too hard to convert the drug testing facilities into a needle exchange.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 6:15 pm
mayor Gregor is about to go on Global 6 PM News
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realpaul Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 6:19 pm
Right on Aleks, it’s going to a “world class” crack house.
BTW did you hear that the German National Athletes and Contingent will not be staying at Whistler siting aggregious costs. They’ll bunk at Hotels in vancouver instead.
The new motto for Vancouver 2010 ” Feel the Flush !”.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 6:28 pm
Drachen’s link on post # 32 is a must see if you haven’t seen it
Thanks Drachen …..good digging !
This specuvesting is a global epidemic !!!
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realpaul Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 6:33 pm
February 10th is ‘National Bankruptcy Day’ in the US due to a new law. Will Canada follow suit? We should be wagging the dog on this one. We don’t want to be left behind the politically correct mainstream.
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/i.....geId=85542
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 6:36 pm
You can tell it’s BAAAAAADDD news when Mayor Gregor makes the announcement on Friday.
Any media hack will tell you that Friday is the traditional day for bad news…..then the messengers can take off and hope the weekend dilutes people’s memories.
Regardless, he is candidly admitting what many VCI posters have been saying all along, the Olympic Village will be a financial disaster.
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bdk Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 6:41 pm
HAHHA
#32 is awesome!
Hey Satv what do you think of that you idiot?
http://www.videosift.com/video.....-Overnight
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bdk Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 6:42 pm
“in the last month prices are down 50%” this is the place that copied Vancouver.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 7:53 pm
Apparently Mayor Gregor is the grand nephew of Dr. Norman Bethune.
Wheewwww !!!
You know the punchline right…
” ALL THOSE RICH ASIANS WILL FLOCK TO VANCOUVER OUT OF GRATITUDE AND BUY UP ALL THOSE CONDOS , INCRUDING THE ORRYMPIC VIRRAGE ”
How do you say CraigsList in Cantonese or Mandarin ?
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blueskies Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 8:20 pm
NO -LYMPICS:
http://tinyurl.com/7cw3ce
Beijing based craigslist ad flogging AB RE….. whodathunkit?
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vancouverboom2 Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 8:25 pm
Micky #91
Try rebgv.org or click on link below
http://www.rebgv.org/news-stat.....-vancouver
http://www.rebgv.org/housing-p.....2008-12-01
BDK,
Vancouver real estate never go down has a copy right protection means you can adopt it’s model any where in the world however you need to be residence of original city because saying apply on it’s soil only.People in dubai thought it is vancouver but when they were searching for seymoure bombshells?Anyway Vancouver is multicultural society with advantage of international language,rain and beach plus friendly attitudes while in dubai there is a fear of under world don D Ibrahim believe to be hiding along with Sota Shakel and their regiments attending call for opration from bin like daddies.
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bdk Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 9:31 pm
#106
It’s all clear now, that you for the explanation
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realpaul Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 9:33 pm
So lets see, the Millenium Project is now under COV management and they are ONE BILLION DOLLARS in the red at this time. They got the land for free , so they can’t add that into thier costs. They have only finished the concrete shell and foundation (thats the cheap stuff)and the project is a billion in the hole.
Now if they manage to spend as much per sq ft as they did with the Pennsylvania SRO at roughly 4 times market cost using thier union contractors guided by the idiot incompetants at COV we should see the final costs come in at something north of FOUR BILLION DOLLARS using the same cost structure of $326 per SQ FT finished cost.
I’m leaning towards the 4 billion ++ figure because like I said they haven’t even got to the expensive part of the project yet and they are being mangaged by a staff of miscreants, malcontents and no good niks who couldn’t manage a lemonade stand.
This is a real construction project, no one at the city of Vancouver has any experiance doing this type of work. You have to understand the construction buisness, no one at COV has this kind of background, especially the young novice pretender Greggy ( look up my skirt) Roberts.
An entirely new team of project managers will have to be brought in from who knows where on extremly short notice and that is going to be very expensive. They are going to need a lot of time to envision the project or they will not take on the liability. Who would.
They are certainly not going to take on this mess sight unseen on any contract basis except a cost plus open ended contract which does not extend thier own liability.
Hey case in point, look at that smart German firm that walked off the tunnel project in North van when the government started fucking with the plans.
Oh No , little Greggy, you’re in way over your head on this. best to bail now. Or do you have buyers lined up for all the 50 million dollar condos you’re stuck with. I come to this figure by multiplying the current expectation of selling the condos for 6 mill ( as currently advertised) X 4 which is probably where your costs end up.
Dream On sweet Prince. The next time I want to see you in a skirt it better be on the pretty boys float during Gay Pride Week. This town is going to need a good laugh.
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observer Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 9:36 pm
Fortress wasn’t shy to renegotiate, so I don’t see why the city should be either, especially since what’s at stake is the future wealth and well-being of our city. This is a major undertaking involving many parties with a common goal and its success depends on everyone working together. Making one party and its citizens take a disproportionate hit due to bad circumstances could result in a lot of bad will.
Another comment is that the construction cost per unit of these condos is very high. Not exactly sure why that is.
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blueskies Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 9:42 pm
NO -LYMPICS:
http://tinyurl.com/7cw3ce
Beijing based craigslist ad flogging Alberta RE….. whodathunkit?
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MickeyFinn Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 9:42 pm
Thanks vancouverboom2 and Lilypad… the REBGV moved the info on me.
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realpaul Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 10:06 pm
observer:
The bottom line: COV is on the hook for EVERYTHING. That was admitted to by the young mayor today on the 6 PM news.
Shocking, yes, reality bites yes. Fortis walked months ago and COV has taken up the management and the bills.
Nobodys ‘working together towards a common goal”. The rats have leapt over the side. This ship is going down, along with any expectations of new books for the schools, housing for the homeless and everything else. Taxes are going to SCREAM UP. The costs are out of control and will hit the planet Mars before the screwballs at COV and thier union buddies suck the citizens dry.
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islander Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 10:18 pm
Confessions of an Economic Hitman, by John Perkins.
Great book. Confirms what we already know if we’re cynics/realists. Opens your eyes if you’re a dewy optimist or retarded, utopian, world-improver/do-gooder.
I borrowed my copy from the library, so I stole this telling quote from the book’s Wiki entry:
“Economic hit men (EHMs) are highly paid professionals who…funnel money from the World Bank…and other foreign “aid” organizations into the coffers of huge corporations and the pockets of a few wealthy families who control the planet’s natural resources. Their tools included fraudulent financial reports, rigged elections, payoffs, extortion, sex, and murder.”
Perkins wrote that “organizations like the C.I.A. and the N.S.A. (recruited) potential economic hit men like me” and sent them “to work for private consulting companies, engineering firms, construction companies, so that if we were caught, there would be no connection with the government.”
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Supraboy Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 10:43 pm
“Construction layoffs drove the decline, as the sector lost 44,300 full-time jobs to register one of the sharpest monthly drops in more than three decades. ”
These construction workers don’t even live in Vancouver. They’re immigrants. Who cares about those numbers. They’ll get packed up into a container and shipped out to Dubai.
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Supraboy Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 10:45 pm
“MickeyFinn Says:
January 9th, 2009 at 5:02 pm
My apologies if this has been discussed already but am I the only one questioning why the real estate board has not released the December data?”
You should be smart enough to know why you’re the only one who’s questioning about the data, it’s because you’re 5 days behind in life. Everyone’s seen the numbers except you. What planet do you live on?
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 10th, 2009 at 7:08 am
From Nanaimo:
“Analysis: Do we have the council to get us through 2009?”
http://www.chtv.com/ch/cheknew.....4982319e96
QUOTE:
Nanaimo faces some pressing issues as the city moves into 2009 and residents should be concerned about whether or not their city council has the experience and skill to close deals and curtail spending. City staff know how to manage our finances, but ultimately direction has to come from our elected politicians. And with a few newbies and some old-time mainstays at the helm, we need assurance that we voted for the right people to lead the city through the next year, a 12-month stretch that some say will be a treacherous time that requires prudent decision-making and frugal spending.
=================================
Nanaimo is fascinating parallel to Vancouver on many fronts.
New Mayor, new Council and dealings with Millenium re: a hotel project.
QUOTE:
” (Nanaimo) Council appears to have taken a hard line with Millennium, but I guarantee you, this group really just wants to establish a tough-love relationship. Every councillor I’ve talked to wants to stay with the company. Without Millennium, they have to start the process all over again and that means several more years of delays, even if they’re able to find a developer with enough money to spend in these tough times. But a failed deal also means council would have to find a new way to build condos next to Maffeo-Sutton Park, not an easy task considering the differing opinions among councillors about the type of development desired for the downtown. ”
My view is get over it Nanaimo….all the evidence suggests Millenium is in the death throes, it would much prefer to do the Vancouver deal if it could, Nanaimo is off the radar screen. If Millenium can’t do it by NOW it never will, given all the projections show the economy will get worse. Even if you build your Nanaimo hotel…it may sit empty and no one comes to your Convention Center anyway as the global economy tanks. This goes back to my earlier post on how these little political rubes in cities everywhere get suckered into these white elephant projects, where, like the Olympics, they rarely even break even.
———————————————–
They are also looking at serious belt tightening given the economic slowdown.
(To be continued)
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 10th, 2009 at 7:32 am
Curious what, if any , ” W-r-GG..l…E ” room the COV has re the Olympic Village.
Apparently, 1/3 of the units are sold (whatever that means ie downpayment on the VISA card , 0/40 loan ??? My guess is they didn’t want to scare off buyers and bottom -fed to the lowest common denominator of other developers )
Unless Olympic Village had weasel- clauses in the purchase contract that allowed them to cut corners,(CBC show had a very good news feature on this a while back) these units that were sold may have savvy buyers who insist on the terms of the agreement(ie granite countertops,and NOT formica cove top counter with granite look,…. OR stainless steel applicances and NOT lime green rebuilts from the 1970’s ) .
If this is not complied with, these buyers may claim “breach of contract” and get their deposit back(which I am sure they would prefer). In other words, these current buyers may bail, using any/all mean possible to put the agreement under microscopic legal scrutiny. They may even get really smart, organize and rally and try to embarass the City which the image conscious City won’t like and then sign all sorts of mutually agreeable non- disclosure deals.
The City is very vulnerable now, the law of the jungle kicks in (ie go for the throat and the nether regions at the same time).
===========================================
The 2/3 of the Olympic Village units NOT yet sold will be interesting as to if they can or will cut corners in these Unsold units in order to complete.
(To be continued)
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 10th, 2009 at 8:06 am
Olympic Village ( Public – Private venture) VERSUS 100% Private Sector Development .
This harkens back to my earlier posts.
This entire deal has too many overlapping obligations and legalities.
Host Olympic cities are obligated to build accomodations for Olympic athletes.
Rather than tents or perhap Britco trailers or renting out trailer park, it appears that permanent apartment buildings/condos are the norm for Olympic athletes.
Vancovuer, as host City has a land shortage re land for hi dnsity residential. It had a fair amount of land on the South side of False Creek The City mandarins must have either felt they were geniuses (or perhaps lobbied by such outside groups as ” global Economic Hit Men” )to do a joint venture development to build the Olympic Village for the athletes and then sell them at a profit. At the time the deal was announced, the press reports seemed to indicate that Vancouver had outright sold the land for an UNprecedented price per sq. ft.
Later we find out it was a strange Joint Venture.
However, given the IOC has its sticky fingers in, and must be catered to first, I had noted that IOC deal with host cities are often secretive and very confidential. My best guess is COV cannot cut corners on the OLYMPIC Village, because for all intents and purposes IOC and VANOC own it…even if its for a short time. The IOC specificiations can and will be adhered to, that is common practice. That is then a fixed non -negotiable cost. For all we know,…IOC may also insist on the standard of labour used ie certiifed tradesmen.
COV in my view will have squat all wriggle room…simply on the basis of beholden to IOC in this Olympic Village Joint Venture with (i) IOC (ii)Millenium and (iii) COV
THUS:
IOC has basically a (2 )week use, but ironically the IOC has more say and control over the Olympic Village than either Millenium or COV . IOC has no risk…has the lions share of the benefits, but conversley Millenium and COV carry all the risk and increasingly liitle if any benenfit. In fact, as we speak,this is now going down the totem pole with COV left as the last man standing and left carrying the ENTIRE bag.
In sheer contrast,..Private Developers are more savvvy than COV “Donald Trump wannabee” rubes…they can and will have flexible contracts and cut corners, if not have numbered companies set up per project and bail as a last resort.
Private sector developers didn’t get RICH cutting cheques if they can avoid it , and COV and its taxpayers will get POORER and POORER by cutting seemingly endless cheques.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 10th, 2009 at 8:40 am
Post # 108 from realpaul
Quote:
This is a real construction project, no one at the city of Vancouver has any experiance doing this type of work. You have to understand the construction buisness, no one at COV has this kind of background, especially the young novice pretender Greggy ( look up my skirt) Roberts.
An entirely new team of project managers will have to be brought in from who knows where on extremly short notice and that is going to be very expensive. They are going to need a lot of time to envision the project or they will not take on the liability. Who would.
They are certainly not going to take on this mess sight unseen on any contract basis except a cost plus open ended contract which does not extend thier own liability.
=============================
I recall a few weeks back a construction worker being interviewed who had stated they may soon be working on the Olympic Village site 24/7.
That will be a good indicator of how desperate they are if it happens. Any VCI posters eyes out there to keep tabs?
Cost-Plus contract?
If that happens we are talking free fall into a black hole.
On the one hand, there are thousands of construction workers now out of work, one would think that one of the few silver linings is labour costs for the Olympic Village would be much cheaper. However, COV Council has a distinct Left Wing aka ” Union friendly” slant. However, the General Public has no appetite for pork – barrelling favouritism, increased taxes, and snouts in the Public Trough.
My sense is that the Olympic Village contractors in place will stay in place…when things were booming there were shortages and securing any contractors came at a premium.
Given work has dried up, these Contractors are doubly blessed with work and likley at high rates.
All I can see is them ratcheting up the schedule, but I am sure that with the IOC penalty gun at COV’s head…COV is likely on schedule insofar as the work…its simply a matter of securing the financing.
However, just because its a Gov’t body is NO guarantee COV will get any financing. COV Credit Rating ( TRIPLE A ?) will get shot over this one single deal ,and my guess is for years… and of coure this affects all their OTHER financing, the interest rates they pay which of course leads to higher property taxes , …..Catch 22 ad – infinitum .
Seriously , what lenders are going to lend to anyone holding the bag on this Olympic Village ? The demands for collateral from any lenders will be UNprecedented for a Local Gov’t.
We are in quasi Science-Fiction areas if No One lends to COV , the project stops, and the IOC enacts its penalty clauses and sicks its legal pit bulls on the COV.
There are so many “PERFECT STORM” variables lining up as this black hole continually expands it is hard to keep up and keep track of…..one literally has to buy a frikkin program.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 10th, 2009 at 9:15 am
John Perkins (Economic Hitman)is interviewed in movie ” Zeitgeist: Addendum ”
http://video.google.com/videop.....7695921912
————————————————————
Also:
A proposed solution to the global economic mess is the ” Venus Project”.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T.....us_Project
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 10th, 2009 at 9:38 am
( Be right back…time to get more coffee and thank God I ain’t a Vancovuer property owner).
“Olympic Village may cost Vancouver taxpayers $875M: Mayor”
http://www.cbc.ca/sports/story.....llage.html
QUOTE:
‘The Olympic village is a billion-dollar project, and the city taxpayers are on the hook for all of it.’
— Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson
Key word is “ALL” of it.
So, Gregor admits it, must be implying Millenium is toast.
Prediction is Fortress Group is either toast soon,(its share value has tanked….) or playing a dangerous game of bluff to see if the City blinks FIRST and literally gives away the farm ie City assets or other “in kind” leverage mechanisms etc..
Story re Fortress Group:
http://www.streetinsider.com/I.....65257.html
The COV may be in THE weakest position…can it afford to start over and go shopping for financing in such an economic climate ? I don’t think so.
Fortress Group seems to be tanking as well, but may see that its own short term salvation solution will be to put a gun to COV’s head and milk them to the last drop . If this was a private sector debtor, they would simply fold and run. Again , a Gov’t can’t…and Fortress knows it, and knew it going in.
Given the aforementioned ,….My prediction is the City announcement Friday is a preamble to the outright sellout of Vancouver and its citizens next Thursday,( the last deadline day they announced ).
PS I am not counting on any miracles or white knights and especially ANY senior levels of Gov’t. If they do I sense a major revolt.
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blueskies Says:
January 10th, 2009 at 11:14 am
…another possible group of
rich offshore buyers to save YVR RE
“rich Somali pirates”
http://tinyurl.com/76hwuk
…oh wait that didn’t work out too well
supraboy back to you……
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alexcanuck Says:
January 10th, 2009 at 11:16 am
Good article on rental market price declines in LA as a result of the bust.
Here is Calculated Risk putting it in perspective, you can link to the original LA Times article from there.
A snippet. Mark Verge, owner of the property listings service Westside Rentals, said he’d seen rents fall faster in the last three months than at any time since he founded the company 13 years ago.
“I used to have to beg owners to lower rents. Now they ask me, ‘What do you think I should lower it to?’ ” Verge said.
Verge said his service had 24,000 units listed for rent — a 33% increase from the 18,000 he had at this time last year.
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realpaul Says:
January 10th, 2009 at 12:03 pm
NO -LYMPICS:
No lympics, the COV will certainly get financing given it’s cash cow slave base sometimes referred to as citizens, but the question is not only at what cost, but at what terms.
There is certainly not going to be a friendly reduction of labour rates by the cooperative socially concious unions. In fact you can count on ever more onerous conditions and escalating costs of the labour component should the COV move to a 24/7 mandate. These are socialist city managers working with barking mad socialist union ideagogues. None of whom has any experiance in major project development. Not a good combination. WAC BENNETT said ” These socialists ( The NDP ) couldn’t run a lemonade stand”, it’s always proved to be true with the socialists of this Province, it won’t be any differant this time.
The whole thing is more like a circus for it’s entertainment value, except you know that it will end in a steamy slashing bloodbath for the taxpayer. In that it’s more like a Greek tragedy where everyone dies.
” I hear the train a comin, it’s comin round the bend”. Johnny Cash.
Remember the fast ferries and the NDP? This project is going to blow that fiasco out of the water in proportion but instead of being a Provincial disaster which was washed in the huge bucket of ‘General Revenue’ this is a site specific COV issue which I very much doubt will become a Provincial liability.
Campbell isn’t likeable , but he isn’t stupid. Think of how much political sway he will have with COV city councils by hanging this over thier heads. Look at how he can point out the dangers of a socialist administration during elections coming, it’s the NDP fiasco part deux. Greg ( the pretty young boy in a skirt) Roberts and council have handed Campbell a free ride come next election.
I wouldn’t doubt that they will try to float some kind of bond at agregious intrest , something like 11-14%. Lets watch and see shall we? Watching these losers squirm has got to be sweet justice for Sam Sullivan who took that coke poured over his head with a seraphic smile. He obviously knew what was coming. Revenge is sweet.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 10th, 2009 at 12:25 pm
Here’s the Plan
Non -Vancouver BC Citizes start to rally and make it clear a revolution will occur if one dime of BC Gov’t $$$ goes to bail COV. That would be salt in the wounds while other areas of BC have been bleeding.
The COV citizens likewise take the cue and plan a revolt if COV raises taxes.
Then what?
Sue us?
Go ahead, we still won’t pay, can’t get blood out of a stone.
Has the IOC actually taken a Gov’t to court ?
Jimmy Pattison had a saying “your FIRST loss is your BEST loss.
What would the IOC say of everyone said F*ck off IOC we ain’t paying,we shut down and eat our losses to date, in fact why not cancel the 2010 games ?
Seriously if any VCI poster or anyone else was given a choice to
(i)Cancel OR
(ii)Keep paying(and paying and paying for years
what would you do?
I’d laugh like hell as I vote “NO”. I could care less about “world class” BC being notorious for standing up to this IOC black hole…maybe the world would thank us and give us a medal.
There will be a tipping point where a decision to fund something far more important ie “X” will be weighed against the continued 2010 cheque – writing.
We haven’t even started talking about the Security Bill….they LowBalled it at under $ 200 Million, but the lying pimps now hint at $1 Billion, especially when all the last few Olympics have been OVER $1 Billion. To me, this lowball was the first warnign sign these scumbag were lying to us. The Snivel servant cops etc. will be drooling over the gravy train that will be this $1 Billion cost to act as gun- toting macho -looking kevlar- clad bouncers for for this 2 week party.
Maybe the IOC should turn tail and run when an army of 4 Million BC residents says F*ck off IOC.
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OLYMPICS EXPOSED Says:
January 10th, 2009 at 12:29 pm
I think the answer to the Olympic Village Fiasco is to set up an Olympic Rescue Team
Find the best people in to run the organization and pay them well.
My nominees are:
President Bob Rennie
Spokesperson Bill Good
Strategic Planning Ozzie
Risk Management Muir
VP Marketing Helmut Pastick
Comptroller Tsur
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Lis Says:
January 10th, 2009 at 12:36 pm
“These construction workers don’t even live in Vancouver. They’re immigrants. Who cares about those numbers. They’ll get packed up into a container and shipped out to Dubai.”
Oh, boy. I predict many will stay around and try to work with out any papers. Maybe file some refugee claims? If their work situation isn’t good in their country I doubt they’re going to want to go back. Not that it’s a problem. CIC loses several thousand immigrants with removal orders every year.
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OLYMPICS EXPOSED Says:
January 10th, 2009 at 12:37 pm
NO-LYMPICS,I share your frustration, it’s unfair some criminals go to jail for pilfering, and others get rich doing the same thing on a greater scale.
If only people could see the connection between this grand theft and the eventual cut backs which will impact on schools and hospitals-basically the most venerable.
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realpaul Says:
January 10th, 2009 at 12:38 pm
Olympic costs gargantuan and growing
http://www.vancouversun.com/Sp.....story.html
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realpaul Says:
January 10th, 2009 at 12:39 pm
Costs of COV loans ‘hundreds of millions
http://www.vancouversun.com/Ho.....story.html
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realpaul Says:
January 10th, 2009 at 12:41 pm
Olympic village costs getting scary
http://www.vancouversun.com/ne.....story.html
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Moldcity Says:
January 10th, 2009 at 12:42 pm
I get the feeling that looking back on this era “public private partnerships” will be seen as todays version of asbestos. It seemed like a good idea at the time, and the sales pitch was slick, whocouldanode that it would turn out so toxic?
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OLYMPICS EXPOSED Says:
January 10th, 2009 at 12:43 pm
“Oh, boy. I predict many will stay around and try to work with out any papers. Maybe file some refugee claims? If their work situation isn’t good in their country I doubt they’re going to want to go back. Not that it’s a problem. CIC loses several thousand immigrants with removal orders every year.”
Many will work for cash under the table.
It will be interesting to see how some builders will compete paying regular wages to construction workers, while other pay $8.00 cash, plus a bunk bed in a basement shared by 20 others.
No seat belts in vehicle driven to construction site!
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VHB Says:
January 10th, 2009 at 1:16 pm
Check out this thread on the OlyVill if you want to see me going at someone named LB, which presumably stands for ‘Last Bull.’
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CZ Says:
January 10th, 2009 at 1:17 pm
Worth to check out this, New Home Nightmares:
http://www.cbc.ca/marketplace/...../main.html
This is not a single instance – 18 new houses on one street, built by the same builder, without permit to start the building. During the boom days, who knows how many houses were built like those? How do you know if the house was decent built when you buy a brand new one? After thousands dollars spent on the crap (a.k.a. the new house), the couples are still suffering from nightmares, with a lot of mental stresses.
Who are the parties to be blamed for the mess?
1. the builder – Mr. Wright, he is sued as a result eventually
2. the government pointed inspector – seems still in large
3. the insurance company Tarion for the new home guarantee program, who should protect the home owner, but in fact it protected the builder on the contrary – just changed head.
4. anyone else? you guess.
——–
I would think if you are going to buy a home, be extremely cautious on the houses built during the boom time, say during 2004 and 2008. Lessons learned.
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Van-zee Says:
January 10th, 2009 at 1:51 pm
Vancouver host city for 2010 games!
host (hōst)
noun
1. one who entertains guests either at home or elsewhere
2. a person who keeps an inn or hotel; innkeeper
3. a country or area that provides place and services for a competition or event the city will be host to the Olympics
4. any organism on or in which a parasitic organism lives for nourishment or protection
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bdk Says:
January 10th, 2009 at 2:36 pm
Can anyone else see the big protest going on downtown?
They’re on Georgia now.
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Neptune Says:
January 10th, 2009 at 2:42 pm
realpaul:
Ah less we forget, it was Campell and his management that did a wonerful job on the new confention center. How much over budget is it again???
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 10th, 2009 at 2:44 pm
Post 135 CZ
Great link and great digging !
Adds more to my view Local Gov’ts are useless t*ts.
Watch the floodgates unfold from people venting who were stung in so many ways in this latest building orgy boom.
PS:
I hesitated to use the word ” innocent ” in front of people venting….”caveat emptor” aka “buyer beware” is even more relevant and applicable in boom times.
If you think your Local Gov’t gives a shite about your best interest , I have a bridge to sell you and I will throw in a warehouse full of “I’m Backing the Bid ” bumper stickers no one wants to use anymore for some strange life – saving/self – preservation reason.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 10th, 2009 at 2:49 pm
137 bdk Says:
January 10th, 2009 at 2:36 pm
Can anyone else see the big protest going on downtown?
They’re on Georgia now.
=========================
BDK:
Keep us updated if you can.
I am sure it will be on the T.V. News.
Time for BC to rock and roll with a 2009 “anti -2010″ party
YEAH BABY !!!!
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CZ Says:
January 10th, 2009 at 3:01 pm
blueskies: These Somali pirates do have contribution to the financial crunch – they have trimmed down $3-million for the inflated financial world. So in theory, the $500-trillion potential trouble is shrunk 0.0000006%.
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squidly77 Says:
January 10th, 2009 at 3:04 pm
new canadian real estate bear blog
So, looking at that, it really goes without saying that all declines are not equal when it comes to real dollars… especially in Vancouver, where a 10% loss there, would equal an 18% one in Calgary, 29% in Montreal, or 38% in Winnipeg. So just keep in mind, all those plot points are relative.
http://edmontonhousingbust.blogspot.com/
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CZ Says:
January 10th, 2009 at 3:05 pm
CZ:
realpaul, any comments on the possibility of similar cases in YVR? thanks.
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RennieWhereRU? Says:
January 10th, 2009 at 3:11 pm
So the development industry has risen the white flag. Vowed never to buy a Vancouver Sun today but I want to keep the headline from today’s paper regarding Olympics. Only one small tiny section of Westcoast Homes! Anyone remember the days when there were 3 (yes even in January)! I LOVE IT. All that real estate marketing crap and biased commentary used to make me rage. I used to wipe my ass with it, then burn it. Today I will keep it with the front page as the day the industry raised the white flag that there is no point advertising its crap product. There are no buyers and the market is flooded. We will be at $200/SF for conrete Downtown within 2 years.
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bdk Says:
January 10th, 2009 at 3:44 pm
The protesters marched down Georgia and managed to block both lanes for a bit and they needed a police escort.
I think a lot of those protesters are just there to cause trouble and don’t care about the cause furthermore blocking traffic doesn’t prove anything, it’s not like driving down Georgia is restricted to people who support the Israeli occupation..
Maybe I just don’t get it?
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realpaul Says:
January 10th, 2009 at 4:04 pm
CZ:
I never understood why a homebuyer wouldn’t spend a measly $200 to have a lawyer review thier purchase contract before committing themselves to it. This is a perfect example of why you should never ever trust a realturd.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 10th, 2009 at 4:10 pm
Protestors shouldn’t be inconveniencing the public with stunts like blocking traffic..they lose support . Also they also attract rebellious a-holes who cling on and use it as an excuse to wreak havoc, vandalism etc. like the Vancouver Canucks riots.
Need to announce the protests ahead of time and get everyone riled up but civil. Politicians worst nightmare is a large organized mob they can’t arrest.
How about March and April when Local Gov’ts draft their annual budgets? Especially Vancouver !
I’d like to see Shaughnessy trophy wives , business executives, clergy people, handicapped and homeless people (aka just about E-V-E-R-Y-B-O-D-Y) marching arm -in -arm on the Olympic clock and every other Olympic venue
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realpaul Says:
January 10th, 2009 at 4:15 pm
RennieWhereRU?:
The hard costs for the Olympic village are $875 +++ per sq. ft excluding ancilliary costs and growing like a 100 mega ton thermal nuke.
The COV is looking at market costs of comparables and crapping thier pants. They mentioned ‘ holding the condos off the market until conditions improve’. HAHAHAHAHA ad infinitum. You say $200 a sq. ft in 2 years , I say sub $100 within 1 year.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 10th, 2009 at 4:25 pm
144 RennieWhereRU? Says:
January 10th, 2009 at 3:11 pm
So the development industry has risen the white flag.
==================================================
You have to wonder what the Private Developers with an oversupply of condos of their own are thinking now the Mayor Gregor has exposed Vancouver’s worst- kept secret.
City of Vancouver has several hundred condos to unload in the very near future. This is called competing product.
One never knows how desperate City of Vancouver might be. Its like an iceberg of supply looming to flood the market with a fire sale at any moment.
That……plus why would a private developer embarrass themselves trying to flog a dead horse to an increasingly aware public with RE product of value that is depreciating daily.
Vancouver has to have some very good advice to make a good call. There is a point the financing costs continually eat away at the profit(which I think is gone), versus the hold out for a market turnaround which may never happen. In other words, selling at a loss may be the best moves..it may enrage the citizens, but thats why a good bean counter lays out the best-case to minimize the losses, which is what I think will be COV’s best strategy.
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CZ Says:
January 10th, 2009 at 4:26 pm
realpaul:
realpaul,
I guess during boom days, it is not the $200 lawyer expense, but the time of the lawyer review, that makes the buyers to take the short-cut. Think about a long line-up on a new development site.
But either ways, the buyers were fooled, by a group of xyz-tards. The facts are that the buyers are really the *tards, and those xyz-tards are not and they have made a lot of benefits from the miserable buyers.
Where is the monitoring system? Where is the justice system? Where is the government? NO-LYMPICS is right – we may have to take care of ourselves, alone.
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realpaul Says:
January 10th, 2009 at 4:30 pm
RennieWhereRU?:
I quite agree, the bullshit ads in the Sun that have not been disclosed as advertising in the “HOME” section or “WEST COAST Living” are just disgusting. In the US every media has to disclose as ADVERTISEMENT in big bold letters at the top of every page. The media here misuses it’s mandate by this dishonest misrepresentation and does the entire industry a disservice.
When one guy ( IZZY ASPER) owns all the media outlets in a country this is the type of BULLSHIT you get. I will never buy a newspaper for this reason. I want honest journalism not this crap. I want meat not spam. Newspapers are failing for this very reason . The people who still read buy papers do so for an intellectual exercise, the BS is not appreciated.
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../system32\satv\newsflash Says:
January 10th, 2009 at 4:34 pm
Actually we owe thanks to the developers. Mr and Mrs Howmuch a Month( Rennie’s Victims) may hold on to their little boxes, but the developers make money only when they sell, which means more supply on the way.
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realpaul Says:
January 10th, 2009 at 4:34 pm
NO -LYMPICS:
Like Jim Pattison says ” Your first loss is your best loss”. If he’s on the Olympic party circuit then the COV will probably be hearing lots of this. HAHAHAHAHA
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realpaul Says:
January 10th, 2009 at 4:40 pm
CZ:
Yea but CZ , it’s up to every individual to look after themselves. These people that got themselves suckered are more to blame than anyone. This is not a society where everyone gets thier bum dryed by a big government mommy. WTF is wrong with these people?
A smart person doesn’t set themselves up. Hire a lawyer, hire an inspector, total cost $less than $500. If it’s not a bona fide good deal , walk away.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 10th, 2009 at 4:46 pm
138 Neptune Says:
January 10th, 2009 at 2:42 pm
realpaul:
Ah less we forget, it was Campell and his management that did a wonerful job on the new confention center. How much over budget is it again???
=====================================
Also keep in mind, the ” new ” Vancouver Trade Convention Center will be used as the Olympic Broadcast Center.
( It was supposed to go to Richmond but thats another story. )
The Vancouver Trade and Convention Center is already $ 400 + Million OVER budget. That’s almost 1 / 2 of the Olympic Village cost.
My guess is that the Vancouver Trade and Convention Center isn’t accounted for in the Olympic budget, much like the Sea -to -Sky Highway isn’t (as far as I know)…even though construction and upgrades of both are required for the Olympics.
That’s a lot of the usual Olympic BS……how they do so much “creative accounting” to hide and absorb costs as other line items under other budget ledger headings and continually try to fool the public.
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realpaul Says:
January 10th, 2009 at 4:59 pm
NO -LYMPICS:
As much as I differ fundamentally with the NDP I think Harry Bains ( the NDP OLYMPIC critic) has done an excellent job of keeping track of this file. Maybe look up his office and find out exactly how many “off the books” Olympic . projects there are. Last time I heard him speak his figures were over 400% higher than the Libs are letting on.
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markx Says:
January 10th, 2009 at 5:00 pm
bdk, do remember that protesting is about the only outdoor entertainment people get in Vancouver, the No Fun city. It’s a lot more fun than going to a night club, which is very lame in Vancouver.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 10th, 2009 at 5:14 pm
CBS’s “60 Minutes ” will have a feature tomorrow re world “OIL prices” and how these markets actually work.
Can’t wait to see the OIL scam revealed.
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Vansanity Says:
January 10th, 2009 at 5:22 pm
”The Olympic village is a billion-dollar project, and the city taxpayers are on the hook for all of it,” newly elected Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson told reporters late Friday.
”To my great frustration, we can’t turn back the clock on the actions of the last mayor and council. We are financially and legally committed to complete this project.”
Once again… the bloggers were right. This is beyond ridiculous, makes me question whether I want to remain in Vancouver even if the RE prices go down to where I want them to be. Such incompetence is scary, the “Olympic Legacy” will be one filled with great regret.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 10th, 2009 at 5:26 pm
Re : BC’s $ 1 MILLION + Homes
http://www.bclocalnews.com/ric.....62474.html
QUOTE:
Landcor Data Corporation, which analyzed the region’s property assessments, still found 54,183 homes in Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley top the $1-million assessment mark—an increase of 1.5 per cent from a year ago.
The increase is the result of construction of new seven-figure homes as well as renovation of existing homes that increased their value, Landcor president Rudy Nielsen said.
It’s a modest change compared to a year ago, when the number of millionaire properties soared nearly 50 per cent as regional real estate prices were still rocketing towards their peak.
The largest numbers of $1-million-plus homes were counted in Vancouver (28,532), West Vancouver (10,679), Surrey (3,932), North Vancouver District (2,986), Richmond (1,910), Burnaby (1,886) and Langley Township (1,344).
The ranks thin out considerably for homes assessed in eight figures.
Vancouver had 31 homes worth more than $10 million, followed by 23 in West Vancouver, two each in Surrey and Richmond.
$1 million homes by city
Abbotsford – 278
Burnaby – 1,886
Chilliwack – 54
Coquitlam – 715
Delta – 417
Langley City – 3
Langley Township – 1,344
Maple Ridge – 315
New Westminster – 69
North Vancouver City – 336
North Vancouver District – 2,986
Port Coquitlam – 55
Port Moody – 173
Richmond – 1,910
Surrey – 3,932
Vancouver – 28,532
West Vancouver – 10,679
White Rock – 499
More and more convinced Campbell’s assessment freeze is self -serving “political novocaine” to silence and numb the masses, but ultimately delay the inevitable truth.
Wait till next year…the assessments usually have the last years assessment on them as well…wait till next year when people crap with what will likely be a HUGE differential between this year’s frozen assessment and the new assessments come out…,unless Campbell pulls the same stunt. His only out is if there are literally no sales = no comparables…so what is the market price?(…what if eh?)
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Lily pad Says:
January 10th, 2009 at 7:15 pm
Does anyone have a recommendation for which of these buildings is best to rent? I’m talking about the suites between the $1590-$1800 range on the list. Thanks for your input.
http://listings.downtownsuites.....tings.aspx
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Suguar Says:
January 10th, 2009 at 7:43 pm
Lily pad: your next step is to check each building out with the http://www.bedbugregistry.com. This exercise may eliminate some buildings. and save you from cooties.
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Lily pad Says:
January 10th, 2009 at 7:55 pm
Suguar: Thanks Suguar. I just checked and none of the ones I am interested in are registered with bed bugs. Whew!
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domus Says:
January 10th, 2009 at 8:06 pm
Hi guys, have a look at this chart, it is quite stunning!!
“Home prices – in dollars and gold”
http://tinyurl.com/7h2mkc
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bdk Says:
January 10th, 2009 at 9:36 pm
#161 Lily Pad.
H&H (1133 Homer) is brand new, if you like it crosby had a 916 2 bed/2 bath for $1650.. there are a lot of units available right now in that building.
If you want space but an older building the 930 cambie one is over 1100 sq ft. so it’s really inexpensive (20% less than a comparably sized bedbug ridden westend 2 bedroom)
if you’re in that range look at shangry la, there are countless units in there too from $1600-1800 (asking but very negotiable)
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Supraboy Says:
January 10th, 2009 at 9:51 pm
“Wait till next year…the assessments usually have the last years assessment on them as well…wait till next year when people crap with what will likely be a HUGE differential between this year’s frozen assessment and the new assessments come out…,unless Campbell pulls the same stunt. His only out is if there are literally no sales = no comparables…so what is the market price?(…what if eh?)”
New assessments will show more million dollar homes. Face it, the markets are being re-inflated and you missed the boat. You gotta swim harder to catch this boat. Is it too bad there are more millionaires in Vancouver now? The old saying goes, “You’ve been priced out!”
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jesse Says:
January 10th, 2009 at 10:22 pm
“New assessments will show more million dollar homes. Face it, the markets are being re-inflated and you missed the boat. You gotta swim harder to catch this boat. Is it too bad there are more millionaires in Vancouver now?”
If a home is worth $1MM, they’re not necessarily “millionaires” unless they sell and have no mortgage. A lot of these “millionaires” are trying to sell and — funny — not many are succeeding. I wonder how many were spending $ on DimSum and TsingTaos like they had that money locked in. Oops.
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arit Says:
January 10th, 2009 at 10:56 pm
CZ
“I would think if you are going to buy a home, be extremely cautious on the houses built during the boom time, say during 2004 and 2008. Lessons learned.”
I am going to tatoo that sentence on my right forearm so I don’t forget when the time comes.
Rather hire a “realpaul type” for 200$/hr to be my “inspector/advisor from hell” and build the house myself.
Bet regards,
arit
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Anonymous Says:
January 10th, 2009 at 11:51 pm
“not many are succeeding.”
They are lucky because value of properties are higher and going further up,Imagine what type of fools were selling in fear?.Those who did not succeed might going to party whole year by looking at assessments value and bright future.
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MrBear Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 12:18 am
I’ve been thinking about the Olympic Village situation, and I have a theory to run by everyone here.
Imagine for a moment that residential property taxes are increased to cover the entire bill of the Olympic Village, the convention centre, and whatever else Vancouver is stuck with. My theory is that for those of us hoping to eventually buy into Vancouver real estate, it shouldn’t make any difference; home prices should just drop by a similar amount. Banks watch that stuff when they calculate what you can carry in a mortgage, do they not?
So could this end up just being a cost borne by current property owners that the rest of us can blissfully ignore, even if we eventually intend to get into the market ourselves?
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a1 Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 12:18 am
Big developer cuts in prices coming this week!!!!!!!!!
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Anonymous Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 4:39 am
arit: Why would you do that? Realpaul admitted himself he built crap in the 80s and 90s.
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jesse Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 5:37 am
“So could this end up just being a cost borne by current property owners that the rest of us can blissfully ignore, even if we eventually intend to get into the market ourselves?”
MrBear, the City is on the hook for the shortfall and it will be financed with long term debt. The shortfall is made up by increasing property taxes for the next few years and/or by reducing services, including looking hard at the City’s wage structure and staffing levels. Either way residents — and especially property owners and city workers — will suffer for the City leadership’s incompetence.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 6:56 am
Saw on CTV that “Olsen on your side” (on the Evening News) will have a feature on how to buy a home of condo in this market. Includes such things as how to make an offer and how to negotiate, what is fair market price, etc.
I believe it is on tomorrow(Monday), but I am curious as to what tips they can give, especially in a tanking market.
Hope it doesn’t end up being an informercial aimed to suck people into the market.
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alexcanuck Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 7:38 am
Supraboy 166:
Prices ARE coming down, even the realtors can’t deny it any more. But hey, don’t let mere facts get in the way of your beliefs. Do you get great comfort from your faith? It’s true, religion can be a valuable aid in times of adversity, but the congregation of RE true believers is dropping from religion status to that of fringe cult!.
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observer Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 8:40 am
I think things worked out well for the olympic village project given the circumstances (but not so well for taxpayers). A small leak before the civic elections to provide enough suspicions to oust npa and bring in vision. Now Vision can blame npa for mistakes, but nonetheless does exactly what npa would have done anyways to off load the risk to taxpayers. But not a big enough leak to enrage taxpayers to organize and bring in a new party to represent their interests.
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observer Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 8:47 am
(And remember the delicate negotiations which were used to justify the veil of secrecy during the election? I don’t think it was only the Fortress contingent they were worried about, it was the taxpayers!)
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 8:58 am
In Hollywood, they say TRUTH is a COMMODITY.
In the media they say ” If it BLEEDS it leads ” ie bad nes tens to attract rubberneckers.
However, in the recent RE bubble, people were addicted to the good news, and so were the local papers, their commodity of choice was a somewhat ” varnished truth ” compounded by propogandized ads.
However…after the crash there was a lag of denial.
Now the New Commodity is the ” actual UNvarnished TRUTH “, which apparently is bad news.
—Check today’s Vancouver Province. “How safe is your job?”
(sorry ,….a link is not available)
—and a Report out this week predicts loss of 40,000 jobs in BC.
Now the media will have no choice but to use this TRUTH Commodity, cause it may be bad news for the foreseeable future.
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Vansanity Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 9:03 am
alexcanuck:
Don’t waste your time reading Supraboy’s posts. He changes his mind and position constantly. One day he’s neutral rooting for lower prices, next day he’s a bull saying we all missed the boat again… yada yada… troll, who cares?
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 9:08 am
ARTICLE:
Fortress, Backer of Key 2010 Sites, Is ‘Teetering’
Olympic Village, Whistler mother company is ‘tarnished’ says Wall Street analyst.
http://thetyee.ca/News/2009/01/09/Fortress/
QUOTE:
Unless the fortunes of Fortress Investment improve dramatically, Vancouver taxpayers could be left in the lurch. That is the view of Jackson Turner, an analyst for Argus Research, a leading tracker of the U.S. equities market.
Turner told The Tyee that the last few months have not been kind to Fortress, an alternative-investment company based out of New York. The firm is used to being a formidable player in the hedge-fund world, where it invests capital from its clients in a wide range of portfolios.
But tightened credit lines brought on by the economic crisis have battered the company — and the entire hedge fund industry — over the last few months, leading many of its investors to seek redemptions on their investments.
Turner said that redemptions on Fortress’s biggest hedge fund got so bad last December that the company “closed the gates” to stem the outflow of capital, that is, halted redemptions.
————————-
QUOTE:
Turner said the reason that Fortress is asking Vancouver for such high loan guarantees is that it needs reassurance as it sees its own financial position deteriorate in a volatile economic climate. But that means the city’s taxpayers could be held accountable for loans that Millennium can’t pay back, particularly given Vancouver’s obligation to deliver the Olympic village to VANOC by late 2009.
“It looks like the Vancouver taxpayer is going to be footing the bill for more of this Olympics than they had anticipated,” Turner said. “It’s not as though this project isn’t going to be built — it’s going to be built no matter what. It’ll be the taxpayer paying rather than Fortress.”
Asked if Mayor Robertson should be nervous that Fortress is asking for increased loan guarantees, Turner said there is much cause for concern.
“Potentially you have to go to your voters and say ‘look, we’re going to have to pay more money’… That’s not going to make anybody happy,” he said.
=============================================
Translation:
Cut out the crap, get to the point.
Stock up on diapers Vancouver taxpayers !!!
( To be continued )
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 9:38 am
Re Fortress
http://thetyee.ca/News/2009/01/09/Fortress/
” A huge role’ in 2010 games”
QUOTE:
Intrawest’s ongoing financial health would appear key to a smooth running 2010 Games.
In addition to providing land for Olympics venues, Intrawest will be running chairlifts, making parking space available for VANOC, providing first aid and helping maintain competition ski runs during the operations of the Games, said Doug Forseth, senior vice president operations at Whistler/Blackcomb.
Though he couldn’t say how much mountain personnel would be helping out for the length of the event, he said Intrawest would be providing a valuable contribution.
“I’d say we have a huge role in supporting VANOC for the games,” Forseth told The Tyee.
Forseth also confirmed that visits to Whistler could decline by 12 per cent this year given reduced consumer spending across the continent.
The worsening economic picture has some insiders nervously asking what would happen if Intrawest were to face another refinancing emergency, and this time Fortress couldn’t pull through.
Just before Fortress secured the deal that saved Intrawest back in October, VANOC chief executive John Furlong said the Games were safe no matter what the company’s future because the Whistler venues had been completed.
Banks running chairlifts?
Given the turbulent financial history of the athlete’s village and Intrawest, should Vancouverites be concerned about ability of VANOC and the city to stage the 2010 Games? Turner said no.
“I don’t think there’s any reason for people around Vancouver to panic and think ‘wow there’s all these problems with Fortress investment, maybe we’re not going to have the Olympics next year,” he said.
Nonetheless, given Fortress’ financial control over key Olympics host destinations, Turner said the fortunes of the battered company merit consideration.
===================================================
READ the last sentence( after all the other bafflegab )…maybe this is what this is really all about.
Fortress has strategically set itself up that it can’t fail…or can’t be allowed to fail. Fortress , a U.S. hedge fund was bleeding, it halted redemptions, yet is asking a Canadian City, COV , for such high loan guarantess to ensure it gets paid back. One near bankrupt threatens another ?!? to stop the dominos from starting ?.
What does the City have to offer except assets as collateral ( which I don’t think will wotk in a declining market ) or drum roll …… a bottomless “cash cow” called taxpayers.
I laughed at the News when they interviewed an elderly gnet who was perturbed and said they better not ask him for a penny. They won’t,….. it will be LOTS of pennies !!!!!!
In my view Fortress a U.S hedge fund, would be toast by now , but cleverly “hedged” its own bets and covered its ass by tying into the Olympics via Whistler Blackcomb and Olympic Village and in essence using them BOTH as leverage/hostages.
If Fortress goes belly up, it will throw the Olympics into sheer chaos. Then it ultimately falls back to the Gov’t, but Fortress has set up the Vancouver citizens as their saviour, to prevent the dominos from falling. Whistler will be shored up (Fortress did arrange financing several weeks ago), which in theory keeps the Provincial Gov’t out of it, then the last and ultimate scapegoat is the Vancouver taxpayers.
However, they have leverage by saying N-O ,we won’t pay with an organized show of mass protest ….( I am sure some retired folks are crunching numbers as we speak to give spread sheet scenarios of future tax increases and scare everybody shiteless..)…then the backwash is a domino effect at senior levels of Gov’t.
Ah ,…..the permutations and combinations of this ever growing mess. Something will given and very soon.
Stay Tuned !
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 9:58 am
Dredged up an old story on The Olympic Village
ARCHITECTURE
A design marathon disappoints at the starting gate
Stringent site requirements have bled Olympic Village design of verve, TREVOR BODDY writes
http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....EVOR+BODDY
QUOTE:
As if lacking the conviction of its own organic forms, the building is topped by something quite different — a half dozen penthouses arrayed like squared-off country club mansions. These, plus the idea of putting the highest towers on the western portion of the block came from all-powerful marketing consultant Bob Rennie’s “Big View, Big Price” philosophy, says Mr. Lyon. Views to the west are prized most of all, even though this means the family-oriented social housing courtyard next door will remain in shadow when most used — late afternoons and early evenings.
=========================================
“all powerful marketing consultant bob Rennie ” ?
Its been blessed ! How could it possibly fail?
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jesse Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 10:10 am
“And remember the delicate negotiations which were used to justify the veil of secrecy during the election? I don’t think it was only the Fortress contingent they were worried about, it was the taxpayers!”
It certainly looks more bad now. Regardless of whether there was a legitimate reason to keep talks in-camera, the moral of the story is not to f-up in the first place and you won’t have to resort to such tactics. The public will never be able to tell the difference between incompetence and conspiracy, assume the worse, and oust those responsible.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 10:54 am
Post # 183
Unfortunately” RECALL ” legislation does not apply to Local Gov’t.
NPA got purged….but a lot of the VISION/COPE candidates were returned.
If you read the links I posted, Glen ” Fast Ferry/Poop deck ” Clark and Larry “DaVinci” Campbell’s sticky fingers were all over this 2010 Olympic mess . The Lefties on Vancouver Council drank the same kool – aid.
Seems like old Larry Campbell was quite the skids greaser for white elephants….I read an article that his Senate seat was a reward from Chretien for being a big part in making RAV ( “assist Eastern Canada porkbarreling “) line extensions happen . You do recall the initial hesitation by the Metro Vancouver politicians to support RAV , don’t you?
Apparently the COV’s $100 million advance ( news of which became a major issue on the Nov. civic election and effectively wiped out the NPA ) runs out on Jan. 15, which , coincidentally enough,..is this coming THURSDAY which they alluded to this past week re: a new deadline and WHAT they will do next.
In other words, no money left…and they need more funding /advances ASAP or the contractors etc. and everyone else “puttng nails in this $1 Billion coffin ” ….err connected to the “Olympic Village” will W-A-L-K.
Tick -tock -tick -tock….
Mayor Gregor’s Vision/Cope hacks have just as much to answer for as NPA who got nuked, (but I’ll be the NPA wouldn’t trade places and are thanking their lucky stars they got turfed in Nov.)
People making much of this Olympics and Olympic Village mess stick to Gordon Campbell and the Liberals are both ignorant and amusing.
Regardless….The 2010 Olympic party (which many of our politicians wished to be in office during ) may be more like gearing up for a funeral.
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realpaul Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 11:01 am
NO -LYMPICS:
Well if it’s ‘news show’ by a supposedly trusted consumers affairs reporter about ‘how to buy a condo in this market’ obviouisly it is a scam infomercial’ because who in thier right mind is going to want to step into the market today while it’s falling like piano.
This is another example of how easily the pimp media thinks you can be manipulated. Everyone except the entirely brainddead knows that this is not a good time to buy a condo. So,,, they get Chris Olson to try to say ut’s all better. What BS, I’m emailing him today and tell him to stop whoring for the realturds.
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realpaul Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 11:05 am
jesse:
Thats right Jesse it’s only a profit when you sell. There are plenty of $700,000.00aires who were ‘millionaires sim monthe ago.
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realpaul Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 11:06 am
sorry ,, ‘millionaires SIX months ago’
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realpaul Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 11:09 am
Anonymous:
Assesments have nothing to do with value, keep up.
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Anonymous Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 11:18 am
It does that’s how banks approve mortgage and further loan for equity it also expose boards stat.
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realpaul Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 11:25 am
Anonymous:
You are perhaps generalizing ( or I am). Are you talking tax assesment , bank assesment, comparable market assesment, insurance assesment, replacement cost assesment or what, there are many types of evealuation processes all used for differant requirements?
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 11:27 am
Post # 185 realpaul:
I just caught the “ad” re Chris Olson story in passing…we have to be fair and see it first.
It may be something upfront and useful..versus infomercial style-useLESS.
The 60 MINUTES feature re “OIL specuvesting ” is on tonite
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 11:51 am
RE: Assessments
My understanding : An annual property assessment is simply an AVERAGED market value of a given property based on actual sales within a given 12 month period of COMPARABLE properties , and up to a fixed date (JULY ).
The property assessment main purpose is that it is THEN used by the Local Gov’ts who also create a MILL RATE to apply your class of property in order to ultimately determine annual property taxes.
Don’t use your assessment as your market price…that is ridiculous. The market price can fluctuate UP or DOWN in a short time period. In essence the actual value you hope to achieve as a seller is the highest “market” price on the day of sale… unless you are fishing, etc.
Assessments for this year are a perfect example…they are frozen back to near peak prices… they do not reflect the current RE market……the current assessments are already off by a large % .
Most Local Gov’ts will likely keep the same Mill Rate (at minimum) given the assessments have been frozen.
However, expect next year’s property assessments to be LOWER, based on reflection of the collpasing RE market.
Thus, to achieve the same revenue. the Local Gov’ts will have to raise the Mill Rate.
Also note the overall Mill Rate is comprised of a lot of “nickel and dime” mill rates .( ie Translink, schools, sewers…etc.etc.)
(YOUR Property assessment) X ( YOUR Mill Rate )= YOUR Annual Property Tax.
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Vansanity Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 11:54 am
After reading the comments sections on some articles regarding the Olympic Village, one thing is for certain: Vancouver is and will continue to be the laughing stock of the whole country.
It’s unfortunate we’ll all be painted with the same brush, but it’s the way it is, guilty by association. They are overdosing on the schedenfruede.
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arit Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 11:55 am
Good question indeed. I am sure realpaul did not build crap for HIMSELF in the 80ies. I want him on MY side. That’s how life works, my friend. He can recognize crap, I can’t.
Regards
arit
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arit Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 11:56 am
Above post was in response to:
“arit, Why would you do that? Realpaul admitted himself he built crap in the 80s and 90s.”
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realpaul Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 12:03 pm
NO -LYMPICS:
I just saw a pig fly past my window. The media in my opinion is not morally capable or ethically obligated to tell the truth. But in truth it’s like PT Barnum used to say ” Theres a sucker born every minute”. Caveat ‘Empty your wallet’ Emptor
You know theres going to be a full court press by governments etc through the media to ‘happy up’ the situation going towards the 2010 Party. But as one astute poster mentioned earlier they are going to have to start selling bad news soon because theres nothing left to sell.
I haven’t seen Chris Olson step out of his role as a product representative yet. Many of his ‘ news shows’ have been more like the shopping channel than useful information. It would be better if he went to bat for emabattled citizens who are oppressed like a couple of the programs in Seattle do, but Vancouver allways has been a shallow pool. Chris Olson is not an exceptional journalist.
What I think a lot of people may not understand is that these ’segments’ on the ‘News Hour’ ( in the buisness they call it a news show, take note) are independantly produced by various buisness intrests and then advertising is sold in that time segment, the network picks up a commission so to speak while selling the time. The local news shows are presented in the same way with commercials stiching the program together. If it wasn’t for CRTC regs the commercials would run 55 minutes of the hour.
To think that Chris Olson is doing this “how to buy a condo” segment out of alturism or the goodness of his heart to alert or inform is not at all what is happening. Bottom line, someone is paying him to sell a product. He will read a script and act the part. Will there be any truth in it? That is yet to be seen. Personally, I think the local media has proven itself to little more than a shill and a whore for private intrests. Why think the donkey will turn into a swan now?
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 12:03 pm
From Greater Fool
aka Garth “the Mighty Squirrel Hunter”
QUOTE:
Today I gave an interview with a BC radio station and was asked this question by an incredulous announcer: Won’t BC housing prices stay higher because of all the Boomers moving here? That’s why this area is immune, right?
Wrong Bucko. That’s why you’re in trouble.
Boomers from Calgary or Toronto can only move to Lotusland or anywhere else when they can sell their houses back in the snow – a situation now becoming impossible. This is especially true because lots of Boomers have unsalable houses – big suburban suckers with energy-snorfling pools, double car garages, enough bedrooms for a circus and Scarlet O’Hara staircases. So, with their wealth locked into their cul-de-sac traps, they’re not going anywhere.
And just look at what’s happened to US retirement destinations like southern California, Phoenix or Miami, where nuclear winter has descended on the housing market after prices raced unsustainably higher. And this all bodes badly for the overpriced left coast of our confused land.
Some evidence this week supports that. Over 850 houses for sale in Nanaimo, and just 60 changed hands. Of 237 condos on the market in Comox Valley, only one sold – after 254 days on the market. In Parksville/Qualicum 240 single family homes for sale and just 4 buyers. And in Victoria, sales were down by a third for 2008, with a freefall in the final months taking the average price from over $625,000 to less than $550,000. Yeah, still overpriced.
This will continue, despite the best efforts of real estate pumpers, bank economists and reporters named Polyanna to make it otherwise. Soon you will be told that Superman Obama will fix it. Then Harper will fix it. That Canada is not America. That things’ll turn around in 100 days. That all we have to fear is fear itself.
And, yes it’ll get better. But not this year.
That means there’s a long list of things you should do. We’ll cover some of those in the next few days.
====================================================
Pretty radioactive commentary by squirrel- hunting Garth.
This comment below is a bit scary
” question by an incredulous announcer: Won’t BC housing prices stay higher because of all the Boomers moving here? That’s why this area is immune, right?”
It’s this type of Jim Jones kool -aid drinking sermon re “immunity” here in B.C. that is leading many sheep astray…or simply encouraging people to either make OR not make moves that conflict with what sober well-informed objective advice would otherwise guide them into making , thus THE best choices and decisions .
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realpaul Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 12:04 pm
NO -LYMPICS:
Gold Star *
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realpaul Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 12:14 pm
arit:
I remember what Aristotle Onassis said
“When I need an education , I put one on the payroll”.
If you don’t understand whether your product is in proper order, HIRE AN EXPERT TO TELL YOU” . A good inspector is a few hundred dollars. They can save you perhaps hundreds of thousands and a billion headaches.
Not versed in Contract law? Is your Real Turd is a Dim Sum queen who keeps looking at her fancy watch? Get a freakin lawyer for maybe $200. If the Dim Sum queen balks then walk away. Would you rather have a trouble free deal or hurry up to please the Realtard? Deals and realtards are a dime a dozen, like a bus, theres another one coming ten minutes from now.
And yes, the houses I have lived in were constructed under my supervision. I am happy to report I live 100% problem free. This extends far past the property line. I want to know everything!!!!!!!!!!!
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 12:21 pm
Realpaul:
BTW how big was that pig ?
Anyway…to be blunt, I am not expecting much from the Chris Olson story…maybe I am rubbernecking fully expecting to see an informercial then shred it.
Most of these features cater to the average joe/jane…they can only scrape the surface in their limited time.
I am curious what advice they can give to people who want to buy in BUYERS market…which become more of a BUYERS market ever day…strap on the skis and follow the market down the increasing slope …versus Rennie and colleagues “Stairway to condo heaven ” .
If I see a lot or realtors interviewed in the feature, I will be suspicious..or if it is a fluff piece full of the obvious to most except the sucker crowd.
Anyone wanting the buy now in these economic times must be a truly motivated PURCHASER, a truly rare creature.
However, If I was that person, I can assure you I would NOT use a realtor unless it was in my best interests , not look at CraigsList, and be patient while on the hunt and observe the blood trails… and look for the most blood, of which there are ways to find.(……..and I am sure you know a few yourself).
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macchiato Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 12:25 pm
A1 has been saying: “Big developer cuts in prices coming this week!!!!!!!!!”
I can actually corroborate with similar news but probably concerning a different Developer. I have knowledge of upcoming price reductions by a Developer with several multi-unit projects. The figure I came across was that they will be discounting the lot by 1/3.
Is the Developer rush for the exits about to begin? Seems that way, we’ll see.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 12:49 pm
Arit:
The Realtor? …..boiled down…its a service industry … BUSINESS Pure and Simple….so what service do they provide?
(i) Access to the MLS (simply a selection -based “shopping convenience” ..saves time, but actually a monopoly on RE info/insider RE info.
(ii) Quasi-legal …contractual language/sales and purchase agreements ..use T-H-E-I-R standard RE forms vetted by T-H-E-I-R legal counsel (…thus hard to f*ck up), but NOW you are now beholden to them and their way of doing business.
(iii) errors and ommission insurance (if things go bad/south )
(iv) give you a company calendar at Xmas.
Or ……IF you can find a steal of a deal for a well -built house(which are not really that hard to find…if you Keep It SIMPLE ), all you need is a notary or lawyer (who are also insured) to complete the paperwork.
Realtors are basically “RE info swappers” amongst “RE info gatekeepers “.
The rest can be outsourced to other quailified professionals (excluding BIG RE commission) if one wishes to go that route.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 1:04 pm
Post 201:
I had heard that the profit margin in the RE condo market, on average, was approx 30% markup over cost..ie approx.1/3
If that’s true. the developer you refer to is blowing them out “at cost”. This is usually your first warning sign…their crystal ball says no hope on the horizon…”Geronimo”
The Developer? My guess is Concord ( or someone near the Olympic Village, for obvious reasons).
However, didn’t Concord take over the big Infinity project in Surrey ?
What gives?
This may be a means to drive a death blow to their competition…my guess given the aforementioned is Concord can weather the storm….the strategy may be to force the competiton to flood the market and create a “last man standing” bloodbath.
Not sure what other developer would fit this profile.
Or this may be a F*ck You, etc. to COV re: the pending Olympic Village glut.
Regardless: Someone had to blink first in any case.
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macchiato Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 1:26 pm
No-Olympics, re: post 203,
I can say it isn’t Concord Pacific, but you would probably recognize the name. I’ll leave it at that.
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VHB Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 1:32 pm
Re: Olsen on your side.
Actually, Olsen did a series warning people about the RE market in February 2007. He was a year before the top. I am quite sure that this took some balls because the pressure on the media to be bubble blowers / civic boosters is immense. He withstood that pressure and warned people about the market.
So, I would be quite hesitant to bad-mouth Olsen. If I were to guess, his upcoming piece on condo buying might be very skeptical. Wait and see.
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MrBear Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 1:40 pm
macchiato: Pffft, why wait till next week to see developers dropping their… prices? On Friday a coworker showed me an ad in some local WOPRER (waste of paper real estate rag) named “Vancouer View” for a development at 12th and Arbutus called Luzon. I guess that’s the residential version of that grocery chain SaveOn.
Anyhoo, the ad said there were 10 condos available for sale. I forgot the details on the pricing, but I remember they were marked down by quite a bit. So I did a little digging… scroll down on this page for all the details:
http://www.vancouver-real-esta.....d-pre.html
Here’s what the developer is looking at today:
* 1br: $455000 -> $375000 ($80k, 18% reduction)
* 2br: $795900 -> $595000 ($201k, 25% reduction)
* GST and property tax included
And here’s the real kicker; remember those 10 suites left? It is a 10 suite building.
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Neptune Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 2:22 pm
Legacy Towers on Lougheed and Holdom has already slashed priced on all remaining units. I read this in the new home mag that you can pick up outside of Safeway.
I think the biggest reduction is 30k on a 2BR.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 2:23 pm
From the Province newspaper ARCHIVES
B.C. condo projects take another hit
Work on buildings in Vancouver, Surrey, Kelowna and Island halted
Cheryl Chan, The Province
Published: Sunday, October 26, 2008
QUOTE:
Construction along North Vancouver’s waterfront — the future site of a major development project that will include a conference centre, 108-room hotel, an office building and a 20-storey residential tower — also went silent earlier this month.
But developer Michael De Cotiis of Pinnacle International said the stoppage doesn’t have anything to do with economic woes.
“We are waiting for approval for subdivision and service approvals for water pipes and road construction,” he said.
De Cotiis said he expects construction to resume in three to four weeks and for the current project, a 12-storey highrise, to be completed by the target date of August 2009.
===================================================
I wonder how Pinnacle projects are going thse days ?
PINNACLE owns 2/3 of the massive residential developement in North Richmond.
It didn’t even send a REP to the City of Richmond meeting last week , and has till early March to get its act together with its partner(CONCORD) or the City will cancel the entire project, because several 3rd reading ” subject- to ” deadlines have already been missed.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 2:25 pm
TOOOO FUNNY
(Re; U -KNOW- WHO !!!)
B.C.’s Olympics of realty
Canada’s biggest condo Realtor sells of Vancouver’s last waterfront property
http://www.macleans.ca/article.....8738_58738
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markx Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 2:28 pm
No-Lympics: Putting the social housing units in the shadow seem reasonable to me. Actually, if social housing units can be eliminated at this stage, Vancouver might actually get some much needed cash in a presale, whatever the price may be. The social housing units are of lower quality, and can probably be sold at lower prices. The city is in serious cash crunch, with most of its assets really liabilities. I don’t see how you can call social housing units “assets” when it’s a political suicide to kick out the people living in them.
The big view crap is typical of boom time realtor-speak. Once the dust settles, the huge penthouse units will crash the hardest, as they have the worst price/rent ratio. Anyone notice that there’s disproportional number of huge penthouse units for rent in Craigslist, given the targeted buyers who are supposedly mega-rich?
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 2:34 pm
Arit:
Check these numbers
We are approaching “Absolute Zero”
Shows Units listed , Units sold, Active Listings . # of months on market…etc
http://richmondbcrealestates.com/?cat=120
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realpaul Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 3:03 pm
NO -LYMPICS:
If I was a predator I would know that the ‘ blood trail’ is the place to look for an easy feed. The best deals are not going to be found in the ‘mom and pop’ market who will tend to pull thier listings off the market when they don’t ‘get thier price’.
I would go after the specuvestor multi unit holders and especially the small builders. As a real estate school grad mentioned correctly in an earlier string ‘the builders profit is tied up in the last 25% of the project’ although this number isn’t carved in stone it is on the right track. This isn’t just 25% it is actually ALL THIER CASH .
You want to find someone who “HAS” to sell not someone who’ll only sell ‘IF’. i would pay attention to large projects who may suddenly ‘ blow up’ into recievership.
Single family home builders are particularily vulnerable at this point in the cycle. They simply cannot afford to hold on, the COC loan gets pulled every thirty days after the construction phase is completed, this type of builder has the most to lose. This is where the knives are going cut the deepest. I don’t think we’re at that stage yet. I would look for a small project.
Bottomline, as a hunter you must be very patient, the game is still afoot. I would look at every project and start to inventory, without any offers tendered. Research is power.
Last time I bought an investment property I waited for everything to be in my favour. I walked away from dozens and dozens of ‘deals’. I waited to find a true forced sale which turned out to be a marital breakdown and the occupier being transferred suddenly out of Province and they needed to sell immediatly ( that week). I offered all cash, no subjects and quick ( same week ) completion. I got a HUGE discount. I paid far less than other offers because I could make it happen , no subjects.
I waited for that deal to come along for at least four months and that was in a good market. I made money the day I signed that deal, thats the way it should be. I would have waited six months I don’t care about time.
The low ball offer is not an art it is a tool. If you don’t get the deal so what, walk away and keep looking, theres a deal a minute in real estate.
Baron Rothschild said ” Only buy when theres blood in the streets”, we are not quite at that stage yet, but it’s like a big wave coming into view. For now, sit back on your cash and good credit and wait until desperate sellers are begging you to buy. Be predatory, stay alert and don’t fall for some of the slick spin the developers and governments are puking up. They are desperate , you are not.
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realpaul Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 3:13 pm
MrBear:
Good laugh, only 10 suites left……in a 10 suite bldg,,too funny.
Price marks ups are funny things and don’t have any corelation to value. So they marked up the product 500% and now have a 25% off sale. This is done in retail all the time.
These prices will fall more than 50% within six months and the crappy bldgs with tiny coffin suites probably more. It will most likely settle down to the natural equautuion where income from rents support the mortgage payments and provide a market return on investment. In this case these bldgs are 80% overpriced. Buy now and be a fool.
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Yes I'm rational and I am a bear Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 3:14 pm
Did somebody say they smell blood?
When even this guy can’t put a good spin on this:
http://robchipman.net/blog/
-inventory is way down
-sell/list is way down
-the percentage of over 90s is approaching 50%
-weeks of supply is over 1.5 years
-average sales price is down considerably (check the archives for a chuckle)
-the percentage difference between list and sale price is waaaay high (check the archives for, say ‘06)
-DOMs have risen consderably, both for sales and for price changes
Your nostrils would have to be super glued not to smell the blood on Vancouver streets.
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realpaul Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 3:15 pm
Neptune: READ #213
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arit Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 3:36 pm
NO -LYMPICS:
Looking Good, thanks for the links!
Regards
arit
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realpaul Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 4:23 pm
AUKLAND NZ HAS EXACTLY THE SAME PROFILE AS CANC, iNTERESTING COMP
‘ the few buyers are coming in low and hard, they want to see a little blood on the floor.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/4813942a20975.html
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macchiato Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 4:42 pm
MrBear,
“Pffft, why wait till next week to see developers dropping their… prices?”
Actually, I didn’t say it will be next week, it’s in the works this is why I don’t give more details. It will be weeks away.
Further, this is much bigger than one small 10 unit development that you mention, although thanks for pointing your finding out.
I am a bit surprised to have someone ‘pffft’ my post. I don’t know of any Developers on a large scale that are talking 30-35% reductions. cheers
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Paul Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 4:46 pm
Does anyone know what happens to pre-construction buyers if a condo development is only 60% sold and the developer is forced to mark down the remaining inventory to clear it out? i.e. is the developer required to offer the same price discounts to existing buyers or are they “SOL”? I think most buildings are in this situation now.
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realpaul Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 5:02 pm
Paul:
SOL, no one cares what the pre-sale buyers paid. The price they agreed to is stated on the contract.
Lowest price guarantees are only available at Super Store and such.
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realpaul Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 5:05 pm
Bad news for BC
http://www.theprovince.com/Bus.....story.html
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rubberduckie Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 5:06 pm
I had a look at the Province paper today, and the weekend’s “Homes” or whatever it’s called section was a mere 2 pages. So it was title page, then obituaries.
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Vansanity Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 5:41 pm
Paul:
SOL usually, but I’ve heard of cases in the states where buyers were later suing the developer for a breach of contract but I don’t think any of them won. There’s likely some language in the buyer’s agreement which contemplates the developer selling at whatever price regardless. They have to liquidate those shoeboxes, presale buyer beware.
realpaul:
Good find. I think their estimate of 40,000 jobs is light. The construction sector alone, by the time all these projects are compelte, will stand to lose in the neighbourhood of 100,000-125,000 based on the stats I saw last year. The stats I saw said that at normal periods 100,000 are employed and at peak we reached 225,000 employed in construction in BC. This made up for the jobs that were lost across the province in forestry which basically did the opposite.
Regarding the remaining sectors, without global demand, who’s going to buy their supply? Again, I think they are somewhat optimistic, but only time will tell. I just don’t see another commodity bubble happening for the next decade or so.
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arit Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 5:50 pm
Greetings!
Early spring is apparently here, and the trickle of FORCED-LANDLORDS begins to emerge.
As they awake, the FORCED-LANDLORDS are still unaware that they themselves ended up being the Greater Fool, thus setting extremely unrealistic expectations into their wish-price.
Please consider the following example:
$3500 / 2br – Cambie & No 3 (Condo in Ricmond)
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....36071.html
For a comparison, your humble servant rents 3bdr townhouse for 1060$.
Regards
arit
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blueskies Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 6:15 pm
just did a quick scan of craigslist
Van “for rent” entered today ….450
using “brand new” i got 40 for just today
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jesse Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 7:09 pm
“I am a bit surprised to have someone ‘pffft’ my post. I don’t know of any Developers on a large scale that are talking 30-35% reductions.”
I think the cynicism comes from the past where many of those “reductions” were free upgrades and other incentives, not actual price drops. Also the cynic says the price drops may not be enough to clear the books, though historically developers will be the first ones to cut hard and deep into prices. We’ll see if this particular developer can see the writing on the wall. 30% would be substantial.
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Anonymous Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 7:22 pm
arit: Maybe he can recognize crap because he built it. His father apparently built quality but he admits himself he didn’t. Maybe you should go with someone who has a track record for building QUALITY not just recognizing crap. There’s a difference. Buyer beware.
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realpaul Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 7:34 pm
jesse:
30% WOULDN’T EVEN BE A GOOD START. These units make no mathematical or market sense.
But quite right, they’re not going to be able to hide behind a shiny refridgerator.
I agree that at some point they will cut thier losses. It’s not as if this is a local phenomena. Prices are falling hard around the world.
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Anonymous Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 7:34 pm
arit: Give us one reason why you would give your hard-earned money to a self-proclaimed unethical builder who ripped off hundreds maybe thousands of people who bought his crap in the 80s and 90s. One good reason. Have you ever met anyone who had to pay a $60,000 – $70,000 assessment for a leaky condo they bought for $45,000?
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realpaul Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 7:47 pm
Anonymous:
Point of clarity: I sold buisness opportunities (construction project JV’s) to new immimgrants who then turned around and built crap. I was what’s called ‘an aquisitions officer’, or in other words ‘ a rain maker’.
It just happens that I know a good deal about the construction buisness, warts and all from having advanced degrees in Urban Economics and Chartered Survey.
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arit Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 8:02 pm
anon:
“arit: Give us one reason why you would give…”
anon: Pardon my bluntness but I feel uncomfortable maintaining a dialogue with “voices in the dark”. Please chose a nickname and we can have a civil conversation.
Otherwise I do not know if the question is coming from the same person that I previously answered to and it makes my dizzy. Am I addressing a classroom or an individual? It is not the same.
Regards
arit
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realpaul Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 8:11 pm
Anonymous:
I take it that you not only got burned in the leaky condo mess but then expected to make it up on appreciaition but now find the market crushing your dreams yet again. Life’s a beach senor.
I wrote a paper on the first plaster ( Arizona Style)condo built in the City of Vancouver while it was under construction while I was an appraisal student. The Bldg was on West 8th ave in Vanc. Every one was aware then that these buildings would fail. Why were the city inspectors not telling the engineers to tell the architects that the bldgs were failing as they were being built? It was raining hard that year I remember. The real estate agents had big goofy smiles.
Why people who buy a condo ( or anything ( big ticket)for that matter) look at the kitchen decor and sign a contract on the counter provided to them by a realturd without having a proper site inspection and verified by thier lawyer to explain THE WHOLE THING is beyond me. It’s just laughable. The woman likes the pastels and the man go’s all goo goo eyed and signs up. Are these people just plain stupid? The answer is yes yes yes.
Or is it like PT Barnum said ” It’s immoral to let a sucker keep his money”. Honestly , anyone who finds themselves in that situation desrves it if they didn’t cover thier bases to begin with. As an adult you’re supposed to take responsibility for yourself.
People in the business refer to this type ( of idiot)as ’sandwich meat’. This is not unique to the real estate biz. Ever try to return a defective car? Did you hire a master mechanic to check it out first. I allways do, thats why I don’t get ripped off.
And as far as those leaky condo guys that got the huge assesments, I’ve got bad news for them, all those bldgs are still leaking and will continue to do so. Some of them are on thier second or third wrap. Concrete bldgs are even more problematic because the water has damaged the core concrete structure and many with this issue will have to be condemned before they start falling down in chunks. These bldgs can’t be ‘fixed’.
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vancouverboom2 Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 8:45 pm
NO -LYMPICS: That’s what we are talking about,Assessment Values are up beyond 2007 and beyond july,2008 however properties values are frozen upto 2007 by Government,Supraboy’s point is that when ever Government will release it’s lock those value are already exploded.Anyway all home owners knew the value beyond 2007 and beyond july,2008 that’s why whoever going to bring their listing for sale,listing prices could have been dealt in Advance.
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realpaul Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 9:25 pm
more big real estate problems ahead
http://seekingalpha.com/articl.....urce=yahoo
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realpaul Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 9:42 pm
even concrete towers leak
Repairs have also been done at the 26-storey Parkview Tower on 289 Drake St., another Concord Pacific development.
All the windows on the 14-year-old tower were replaced because they leaked, said Alan Cadwell, whose Langley-based company, The Condo Advocate, repaired Parkview Tower.
Cadwell’s company specializes in restoration management for leaky condos in B.C.
“With one good push, the window wall system, in theory, could be kicked out and could be travelling to the floor,” Cadwell said of the condition of the windows.
The cost of the repairs for Parkview Tower amounted to more than $8 million, he said.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 10:10 pm
Post 233
Please translate.
BTW: Property value are not frozen.
If they were, I choose 1955 prices in 2009.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 10:26 pm
Other thing Re Leaky condos:
CAULKING
If the building envelope has overdosed with Caulking in transition areas…ie where there are joints or 2 diffent materials meet …..RUN.
Overuse (or any use) of Caulking on the building envelope is one of the biggest and dumbest mistakes they ever allowed.
Even the best caulking will shrink , dry and loosen over time, leaving the area it attempts to seal exposed to water infiltraion ,and thus leading to rot.
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MrBear Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 10:29 pm
macchiato: Sorry, I didn’t intend to aim any negativity toward you. After all, MrBear is a positive bear. I’m just starting to kind of laugh at all the things that are falling around us these days. Nervous chuckles are getting the best of me, even though I’ve prepared for this meltdown as best I could.
I’m very interested to see your scoop hit the fan. To me, it is looking like the tremors are getting bigger. Maybe we’re going to see a faster overall market capitulation than I’ve been expecting.
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Patiently Waiting Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 10:35 pm
realpaul (and anyone else who wishes to answer),
Are there any good, affordable condos in the Vancouver area? I know there are some nice, expensive condos downtown. I mean, is there anything worth buying for a typical first-time buyer.
Also, how do the condos built today compare to those of the 80s and 90s. Is it true they are even worse? Are there any good builders building decent, affordable condos right now?
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MrBear Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 10:52 pm
realpaul: Mmm, yeah, window walls. The cheap version of curtain walls, but don’t expect to even be told which system is being used during a pre-sale. Ask any sort of question beyond “who do I make the cheque out to” and get ignored or redirected to the stainless appliances and granite counter tops. Sigh.
Yes, I’ve been through a few downtown presentation centres in my day, but just to kick the tires. I would never buy something where you are so guaranteed to not be told anything useful, especially at the prices they were asking.
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Supraboy Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 11:00 pm
“alexcanuck Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 7:38 am
Supraboy 166:
Prices ARE coming down, even the realtors can’t deny it any more. But hey, don’t let mere facts get in the way of your beliefs. Do you get great comfort from your faith? ”
Pick up a Chinese Real Estate paper recently?
There’s been more million dollar homes now than there are a few years ago. So prices skyrocketed from 6 figures to 7 figures. Let’s say from 600,000 to 1.5 million now. Take off 20% and it’s still over a million, how’s that?
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Supraboy Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 11:04 pm
I see a lot of articles saying “price drop on real estate”. Etc…well, just like sports, stats are for losers. The problem with this city is that the Asians don’t care because they won’t sell lower than the price they bought it for. Their mentality is “if I can cover my mortgage, why should I sell? I’ll hold on until it goes higher, which it will.”
You people keep on bashing real estate but whenever I talk to a Chinese person in Richmond, they’re saying, “yeah, go listen to the media, who’s selling below their buy price? I certainly won’t.” Asians ARE different from North Americans, they have a lot of savings while North Americans tend to use a lot of leverage.
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CZ Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 11:39 pm
Supraboy:
I really don’t have any remedy for you. I suggest that you can buy a million dollar home ASAP, otherwise you’ll miss the boat … to a la la land.
Wish you the best!
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betamax Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 12:11 am
Rich asians will prop up the market! Thank god, because otherwise it’s tanking like the Titanic when it went vertical.
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ted Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 12:31 am
Supraboy: Trolling mixed with race-baiting? How original.
Yawn.
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Anonymous Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 1:48 am
realpaul:
“I take it that you not only got burned in the leaky condo mess but then expected to make it up on appreciaition but now find the market crushing your dreams yet again. Life’s a beach senor.”
How wrong you are. I am not your sandwich meat. I just can’t understand how you could have knowingly been involved in building leaky condos and yet seem to be so proud of yourself and blame everyone else for the fiasco but your kind. To me it doesn’t compute. But keep it coming. Having someone with your mentality on the blog is very educational for the rest of us who are basically honest people who care about the underdog, or “sandwich meat”as you call us. Very informative. Maybe Arit is used to people like you so he thinks it is fine.
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Anonymous Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 1:55 am
NO -LYMPICS: realpaul: p.s. People who bought the leaky condos did get them inspected and the home inspectors gave many the thumbs up.
I think your trying hard to rationalize your unethical behavior, but it’s not going to work. It just makes you appear more and more avoidant of taking responsibility in the fiasco. Someday you will have to face what you did head on. Sorry about that.
Have you ever bought a car which someone knowingly made the brakes faulty on (and the mechanic who inspected it was in on the game) and then sold it to you and laughed at you behind your back?
Buyer beware.
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Anonymous Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 1:58 am
arit: Good excuse, Arit. One reason.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 7:07 am
247 Anonymous Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 1:55 am
NO -LYMPICS: realpaul: p.s. People who bought the leaky condos did get them inspected and the home inspectors gave many the thumbs up.
===============================================
re Home Inspection…
Any Home Inspector (and please note they all come from diiferent backgrounds and core expertise ) can only identify blatant “non latent” defects. They can’t run around with hammer and do destructive testing ie Gee I thin their may be rot behind the wall lest opa hole and find out.
They can check many other systems in the house…but things behind walls are a very difficult if not impossible to detect.
The best they can do is an educated guess, though one home inspector was on TV several weeks ago using an InfraRed device (non intrusive )and was able to reveal water migration etc in the walls.
Any credible home inspector cannot go into a new condo an say its a leaker…it hasn’t leaked yet…but he ALSO shouldn’t give thumbs up either, he should identify the building style,and lay out the scenarios for his client based on probabilities from past examples and experiences.
The absolute worst to avoid and ripe for building envelope failure are those with no roof overhang …vertical walls that turn 90 degrees into the roof.
Best credo?
THINK LIKE WATER…water can be insidious…and one should look at how the building envelope will prevent water infiltration at each and every point . Design has become far too complex and this prevention of water infiltration task is made extremely difficult. Such seemingly minor things as outdoor decks whereby a vertical railing post fastened to a horizontal deck being fastened and caulked at the transition point seems insignificant,BUT I say famous last words,as it is ripe for failure to stop water infiltration and rot later on.
Single Family Homes(SFH)
Keep in mind that stratas tend to do the due diligence and keep on top of this. However SFH will become a nightmare,..the owner is not obligated to monitor it,thye are 100% responsble , many don’t know and don’t care… and these McMansions with stucco are built under the same techniques and style ……and exist under the exact same conditions that created leaky condos.
Even after the Leaky Condo inquiry, I still see the same poor practices and we will be due for another wave of the same . Blame your architect and Gov’t, everybody in between is generally following orders according to the plan in front of them.
Buyer Beware !!!
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Dan in Calgary Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 9:30 am
Anonymous at 1:55 am, Regarding “Buyer beware”, this has always been and remains a silly comment, commonly made by people who believe themselves to be wise in the ways of the world.
People are responsiblie for what they do, whether it be buyer, seller, inspector, builder, contractor, architect, plumber or blog poster.
“Buyer beware” has a tendency to put an admittedly practical but nevertheless morally incorrect burden on the buyer. So spare us your juvenile worldly wisdom.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 10:00 am
Dan in Calgary
Agree with what you say…people , “in theory ” are or should responsible for what they do.
However,
“Buyer Beware” is usually what the Judge will say after you have taken the net and swept everybody onto court.
The seller of new product has the upper hand via the legal documents, numbered companies etc. Most buyers are stretched -thin ” One – Ofs ”
Older product…Buyer Beware is no different than a used car… most warranties no longer apply = “As -Is Where -Is ” .
“Buyer Beware” creates finality…which is necessary in the Big Picture.
However, the Buyer is not forced to buy. The flaw lies in the Buyers lack of awareness , lack of due – diligence, and little if any knowledge of the product they are buying. The point of no return is when they sign on the dotted line.
Unless outright deceived or victim of fraud, , the buyer is basically dressed up in a sheep costume and holding up a sign to the seller/vendor ” PLEASE take advantage of ME “.
Unfortunately,…many sellers/vendors take that cue.
I’ve explained the cure/prevention earlier.
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scullboy Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 11:13 am
Ah Supraboy, I love your comments. I really do.
I don’t think you’re a RE troll or a racist. I just think you’re a very young guy (let me guess, between 20 and 25) who spent most of his life in Richmond, except for the odd vacation here and there.
If you replace “Chinese” with “tech worker” and “RE” with “Nortel” you’d be in Toronto in 2000. I can’t tell you how many people I knew who said quite firmly they “would never sell for less then they bought”.
Well, they didn’t. They discovered they were never millionaire, they were just told they were millionaires.
The Asians you know aren’t rich, either. And they’ll still have their cash in the bank, so they probably won’t be homeless. But they sure as hell won’t be “millionaires” either. I suspect Richmond shops will see an awful lot of second hand gold jewelry come flooding in during the next few months.
You’re so cute and naive, I could just pinch you. I can wait to see the surprised look on your face when this all comes down. Really. Do you mind if I take a photo? I think I’ll call it “Millennial discovered the world doesn’t Revolve Around Him.”
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Anonymous Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 12:09 pm
NO -LYMPICS: Blame your architect and Gov’t, everybody in between is generally following orders according to the plan in front of them.
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So you were in on it, too, eh?
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Anonymous Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 12:12 pm
Dan in Calgary: You’re an idiot.
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Straightryder Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 10:43 pm
UBC economist: the Olympic Village may cost less than the city is claiming
Dave White | Monday, January 12th, 2009 9:20 pm
VANCOUVER (NEWS1130) – The costs of the Olympic Village seem to keep going up, but one economist says Vancouverites won’t end up being hit too hard.
One billion dollars is the latest figure released by the City of Vancouver for the Athletes’ Village. Dr. Tsur Somerville is a UBC economist who says our credit rating may be damaged in the short term, but it’s nothing we can’t recover from.
“Clearly they’re going to say the City’s financial position is worse, and that it’s likely to affect the credit rating but not in a severe way.”
Somerville says after retrieving most of the revenue dumped into the project from housing sales, the village should only end up costing Vancouverites about $275 million.
And he says there is more than enough assets in property endowment funds the City could sell to cover those costs.
How much they pay this shhhmuck.
here’s the link.
http://www.news1130.com/news/l.....0716_35852
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