257 Responses to “Friday Free-for-all!”
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January 12th, 2009 at 9:30 am
Anonymous at 1:55 am, Regarding “Buyer beware”, this has always been and remains a silly comment, commonly made by people who believe themselves to be wise in the ways of the world.
People are responsiblie for what they do, whether it be buyer, seller, inspector, builder, contractor, architect, plumber or blog poster.
“Buyer beware” has a tendency to put an admittedly practical but nevertheless morally incorrect burden on the buyer. So spare us your juvenile worldly wisdom.
January 12th, 2009 at 7:07 am
247 Anonymous Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 1:55 am
NO -LYMPICS: realpaul: p.s. People who bought the leaky condos did get them inspected and the home inspectors gave many the thumbs up.
===============================================
re Home Inspection…
Any Home Inspector (and please note they all come from diiferent backgrounds and core expertise ) can only identify blatant “non latent” defects. They can’t run around with hammer and do destructive testing ie Gee I thin their may be rot behind the wall lest opa hole and find out.
They can check many other systems in the house…but things behind walls are a very difficult if not impossible to detect.
The best they can do is an educated guess, though one home inspector was on TV several weeks ago using an InfraRed device (non intrusive )and was able to reveal water migration etc in the walls.
Any credible home inspector cannot go into a new condo an say its a leaker…it hasn’t leaked yet…but he ALSO shouldn’t give thumbs up either, he should identify the building style,and lay out the scenarios for his client based on probabilities from past examples and experiences.
The absolute worst to avoid and ripe for building envelope failure are those with no roof overhang …vertical walls that turn 90 degrees into the roof.
Best credo?
THINK LIKE WATER…water can be insidious…and one should look at how the building envelope will prevent water infiltration at each and every point . Design has become far too complex and this prevention of water infiltration task is made extremely difficult. Such seemingly minor things as outdoor decks whereby a vertical railing post fastened to a horizontal deck being fastened and caulked at the transition point seems insignificant,BUT I say famous last words,as it is ripe for failure to stop water infiltration and rot later on.
Single Family Homes(SFH)
Keep in mind that stratas tend to do the due diligence and keep on top of this. However SFH will become a nightmare,..the owner is not obligated to monitor it,thye are 100% responsble , many don’t know and don’t care… and these McMansions with stucco are built under the same techniques and style ……and exist under the exact same conditions that created leaky condos.
Even after the Leaky Condo inquiry, I still see the same poor practices and we will be due for another wave of the same . Blame your architect and Gov’t, everybody in between is generally following orders according to the plan in front of them.
Buyer Beware !!!
January 12th, 2009 at 1:58 am
arit: Good excuse, Arit. One reason.
January 12th, 2009 at 1:55 am
NO -LYMPICS: realpaul: p.s. People who bought the leaky condos did get them inspected and the home inspectors gave many the thumbs up.
I think your trying hard to rationalize your unethical behavior, but it’s not going to work. It just makes you appear more and more avoidant of taking responsibility in the fiasco. Someday you will have to face what you did head on. Sorry about that.
Have you ever bought a car which someone knowingly made the brakes faulty on (and the mechanic who inspected it was in on the game) and then sold it to you and laughed at you behind your back?
Buyer beware.
January 12th, 2009 at 1:48 am
realpaul:
“I take it that you not only got burned in the leaky condo mess but then expected to make it up on appreciaition but now find the market crushing your dreams yet again. Life’s a beach senor.”
How wrong you are. I am not your sandwich meat. I just can’t understand how you could have knowingly been involved in building leaky condos and yet seem to be so proud of yourself and blame everyone else for the fiasco but your kind. To me it doesn’t compute. But keep it coming. Having someone with your mentality on the blog is very educational for the rest of us who are basically honest people who care about the underdog, or “sandwich meat”as you call us. Very informative. Maybe Arit is used to people like you so he thinks it is fine.
January 12th, 2009 at 12:31 am
Supraboy: Trolling mixed with race-baiting? How original.
Yawn.
January 12th, 2009 at 12:11 am
Rich asians will prop up the market! Thank god, because otherwise it’s tanking like the Titanic when it went vertical.
January 11th, 2009 at 11:39 pm
Supraboy:
I really don’t have any remedy for you. I suggest that you can buy a million dollar home ASAP, otherwise you’ll miss the boat … to a la la land.
Wish you the best!
January 11th, 2009 at 11:04 pm
I see a lot of articles saying “price drop on real estate”. Etc…well, just like sports, stats are for losers. The problem with this city is that the Asians don’t care because they won’t sell lower than the price they bought it for. Their mentality is “if I can cover my mortgage, why should I sell? I’ll hold on until it goes higher, which it will.”
You people keep on bashing real estate but whenever I talk to a Chinese person in Richmond, they’re saying, “yeah, go listen to the media, who’s selling below their buy price? I certainly won’t.” Asians ARE different from North Americans, they have a lot of savings while North Americans tend to use a lot of leverage.
January 11th, 2009 at 11:00 pm
“alexcanuck Says:
January 11th, 2009 at 7:38 am
Supraboy 166:
Prices ARE coming down, even the realtors can’t deny it any more. But hey, don’t let mere facts get in the way of your beliefs. Do you get great comfort from your faith? ”
Pick up a Chinese Real Estate paper recently?
There’s been more million dollar homes now than there are a few years ago. So prices skyrocketed from 6 figures to 7 figures. Let’s say from 600,000 to 1.5 million now. Take off 20% and it’s still over a million, how’s that?
January 11th, 2009 at 10:52 pm
realpaul: Mmm, yeah, window walls. The cheap version of curtain walls, but don’t expect to even be told which system is being used during a pre-sale. Ask any sort of question beyond “who do I make the cheque out to” and get ignored or redirected to the stainless appliances and granite counter tops. Sigh.
Yes, I’ve been through a few downtown presentation centres in my day, but just to kick the tires. I would never buy something where you are so guaranteed to not be told anything useful, especially at the prices they were asking.
January 11th, 2009 at 10:35 pm
realpaul (and anyone else who wishes to answer),
Are there any good, affordable condos in the Vancouver area? I know there are some nice, expensive condos downtown. I mean, is there anything worth buying for a typical first-time buyer.
Also, how do the condos built today compare to those of the 80s and 90s. Is it true they are even worse? Are there any good builders building decent, affordable condos right now?
January 11th, 2009 at 10:29 pm
macchiato: Sorry, I didn’t intend to aim any negativity toward you. After all, MrBear is a positive bear. I’m just starting to kind of laugh at all the things that are falling around us these days. Nervous chuckles are getting the best of me, even though I’ve prepared for this meltdown as best I could.
I’m very interested to see your scoop hit the fan. To me, it is looking like the tremors are getting bigger. Maybe we’re going to see a faster overall market capitulation than I’ve been expecting.
January 11th, 2009 at 10:26 pm
Other thing Re Leaky condos:
CAULKING
If the building envelope has overdosed with Caulking in transition areas…ie where there are joints or 2 diffent materials meet …..RUN.
Overuse (or any use) of Caulking on the building envelope is one of the biggest and dumbest mistakes they ever allowed.
Even the best caulking will shrink , dry and loosen over time, leaving the area it attempts to seal exposed to water infiltraion ,and thus leading to rot.
January 11th, 2009 at 10:10 pm
Post 233
Please translate.
BTW: Property value are not frozen.
If they were, I choose 1955 prices in 2009.
January 11th, 2009 at 9:42 pm
even concrete towers leak
Repairs have also been done at the 26-storey Parkview Tower on 289 Drake St., another Concord Pacific development.
All the windows on the 14-year-old tower were replaced because they leaked, said Alan Cadwell, whose Langley-based company, The Condo Advocate, repaired Parkview Tower.
Cadwell’s company specializes in restoration management for leaky condos in B.C.
“With one good push, the window wall system, in theory, could be kicked out and could be travelling to the floor,” Cadwell said of the condition of the windows.
The cost of the repairs for Parkview Tower amounted to more than $8 million, he said.
January 11th, 2009 at 9:25 pm
more big real estate problems ahead
http://seekingalpha.com/articl.....urce=yahoo
January 11th, 2009 at 8:45 pm
NO -LYMPICS: That’s what we are talking about,Assessment Values are up beyond 2007 and beyond july,2008 however properties values are frozen upto 2007 by Government,Supraboy’s point is that when ever Government will release it’s lock those value are already exploded.Anyway all home owners knew the value beyond 2007 and beyond july,2008 that’s why whoever going to bring their listing for sale,listing prices could have been dealt in Advance.
January 11th, 2009 at 8:11 pm
Anonymous:
I take it that you not only got burned in the leaky condo mess but then expected to make it up on appreciaition but now find the market crushing your dreams yet again. Life’s a beach senor.
I wrote a paper on the first plaster ( Arizona Style)condo built in the City of Vancouver while it was under construction while I was an appraisal student. The Bldg was on West 8th ave in Vanc. Every one was aware then that these buildings would fail. Why were the city inspectors not telling the engineers to tell the architects that the bldgs were failing as they were being built? It was raining hard that year I remember. The real estate agents had big goofy smiles.
Why people who buy a condo ( or anything ( big ticket)for that matter) look at the kitchen decor and sign a contract on the counter provided to them by a realturd without having a proper site inspection and verified by thier lawyer to explain THE WHOLE THING is beyond me. It’s just laughable. The woman likes the pastels and the man go’s all goo goo eyed and signs up. Are these people just plain stupid? The answer is yes yes yes.
Or is it like PT Barnum said ” It’s immoral to let a sucker keep his money”. Honestly , anyone who finds themselves in that situation desrves it if they didn’t cover thier bases to begin with. As an adult you’re supposed to take responsibility for yourself.
People in the business refer to this type ( of idiot)as ‘sandwich meat’. This is not unique to the real estate biz. Ever try to return a defective car? Did you hire a master mechanic to check it out first. I allways do, thats why I don’t get ripped off.
And as far as those leaky condo guys that got the huge assesments, I’ve got bad news for them, all those bldgs are still leaking and will continue to do so. Some of them are on thier second or third wrap. Concrete bldgs are even more problematic because the water has damaged the core concrete structure and many with this issue will have to be condemned before they start falling down in chunks. These bldgs can’t be ‘fixed’.
January 11th, 2009 at 8:02 pm
anon:
“arit: Give us one reason why you would give…”
anon: Pardon my bluntness but I feel uncomfortable maintaining a dialogue with “voices in the dark”. Please chose a nickname and we can have a civil conversation.
Otherwise I do not know if the question is coming from the same person that I previously answered to and it makes my dizzy. Am I addressing a classroom or an individual? It is not the same.
Regards
arit
January 11th, 2009 at 7:47 pm
Anonymous:
Point of clarity: I sold buisness opportunities (construction project JV’s) to new immimgrants who then turned around and built crap. I was what’s called ‘an aquisitions officer’, or in other words ‘ a rain maker’.
It just happens that I know a good deal about the construction buisness, warts and all from having advanced degrees in Urban Economics and Chartered Survey.
January 11th, 2009 at 7:34 pm
arit: Give us one reason why you would give your hard-earned money to a self-proclaimed unethical builder who ripped off hundreds maybe thousands of people who bought his crap in the 80s and 90s. One good reason. Have you ever met anyone who had to pay a $60,000 – $70,000 assessment for a leaky condo they bought for $45,000?
January 11th, 2009 at 7:34 pm
jesse:
30% WOULDN’T EVEN BE A GOOD START. These units make no mathematical or market sense.
But quite right, they’re not going to be able to hide behind a shiny refridgerator.
I agree that at some point they will cut thier losses. It’s not as if this is a local phenomena. Prices are falling hard around the world.
January 11th, 2009 at 7:22 pm
arit: Maybe he can recognize crap because he built it. His father apparently built quality but he admits himself he didn’t. Maybe you should go with someone who has a track record for building QUALITY not just recognizing crap. There’s a difference. Buyer beware.
January 11th, 2009 at 7:09 pm
“I am a bit surprised to have someone ‘pffft’ my post. I don’t know of any Developers on a large scale that are talking 30-35% reductions.”
I think the cynicism comes from the past where many of those “reductions” were free upgrades and other incentives, not actual price drops. Also the cynic says the price drops may not be enough to clear the books, though historically developers will be the first ones to cut hard and deep into prices. We’ll see if this particular developer can see the writing on the wall. 30% would be substantial.
January 11th, 2009 at 6:15 pm
just did a quick scan of craigslist
Van “for rent” entered today ….450
using “brand new” i got 40 for just today
January 11th, 2009 at 5:50 pm
Greetings!
Early spring is apparently here, and the trickle of FORCED-LANDLORDS begins to emerge.
As they awake, the FORCED-LANDLORDS are still unaware that they themselves ended up being the Greater Fool, thus setting extremely unrealistic expectations into their wish-price.
Please consider the following example:
$3500 / 2br – Cambie & No 3 (Condo in Ricmond)
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....36071.html
For a comparison, your humble servant rents 3bdr townhouse for 1060$.
Regards
arit
January 11th, 2009 at 5:41 pm
Paul:
SOL usually, but I’ve heard of cases in the states where buyers were later suing the developer for a breach of contract but I don’t think any of them won. There’s likely some language in the buyer’s agreement which contemplates the developer selling at whatever price regardless. They have to liquidate those shoeboxes, presale buyer beware.
realpaul:
Good find. I think their estimate of 40,000 jobs is light. The construction sector alone, by the time all these projects are compelte, will stand to lose in the neighbourhood of 100,000-125,000 based on the stats I saw last year. The stats I saw said that at normal periods 100,000 are employed and at peak we reached 225,000 employed in construction in BC. This made up for the jobs that were lost across the province in forestry which basically did the opposite.
Regarding the remaining sectors, without global demand, who’s going to buy their supply? Again, I think they are somewhat optimistic, but only time will tell. I just don’t see another commodity bubble happening for the next decade or so.
January 11th, 2009 at 5:06 pm
I had a look at the Province paper today, and the weekend’s “Homes” or whatever it’s called section was a mere 2 pages. So it was title page, then obituaries.
January 11th, 2009 at 5:05 pm
Bad news for BC
http://www.theprovince.com/Bus.....story.html
January 11th, 2009 at 5:02 pm
Paul:
SOL, no one cares what the pre-sale buyers paid. The price they agreed to is stated on the contract.
Lowest price guarantees are only available at Super Store and such.
January 11th, 2009 at 4:46 pm
Does anyone know what happens to pre-construction buyers if a condo development is only 60% sold and the developer is forced to mark down the remaining inventory to clear it out? i.e. is the developer required to offer the same price discounts to existing buyers or are they “SOL”? I think most buildings are in this situation now.
January 11th, 2009 at 4:42 pm
MrBear,
“Pffft, why wait till next week to see developers dropping their… prices?”
Actually, I didn’t say it will be next week, it’s in the works this is why I don’t give more details. It will be weeks away.
Further, this is much bigger than one small 10 unit development that you mention, although thanks for pointing your finding out.
I am a bit surprised to have someone ‘pffft’ my post. I don’t know of any Developers on a large scale that are talking 30-35% reductions. cheers
January 11th, 2009 at 4:23 pm
AUKLAND NZ HAS EXACTLY THE SAME PROFILE AS CANC, iNTERESTING COMP
‘ the few buyers are coming in low and hard, they want to see a little blood on the floor.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/4813942a20975.html
January 11th, 2009 at 3:36 pm
NO -LYMPICS:
Looking Good, thanks for the links!
Regards
arit
January 11th, 2009 at 3:15 pm
Neptune: READ #213
January 11th, 2009 at 3:14 pm
Did somebody say they smell blood?
When even this guy can’t put a good spin on this:
http://robchipman.net/blog/
-inventory is way down
-sell/list is way down
-the percentage of over 90s is approaching 50%
-weeks of supply is over 1.5 years
-average sales price is down considerably (check the archives for a chuckle)
-the percentage difference between list and sale price is waaaay high (check the archives for, say ‘06)
-DOMs have risen consderably, both for sales and for price changes
Your nostrils would have to be super glued not to smell the blood on Vancouver streets.
January 11th, 2009 at 3:13 pm
MrBear:
Good laugh, only 10 suites left……in a 10 suite bldg,,too funny.
Price marks ups are funny things and don’t have any corelation to value. So they marked up the product 500% and now have a 25% off sale. This is done in retail all the time.
These prices will fall more than 50% within six months and the crappy bldgs with tiny coffin suites probably more. It will most likely settle down to the natural equautuion where income from rents support the mortgage payments and provide a market return on investment. In this case these bldgs are 80% overpriced. Buy now and be a fool.
January 11th, 2009 at 3:03 pm
NO -LYMPICS:
If I was a predator I would know that the ‘ blood trail’ is the place to look for an easy feed. The best deals are not going to be found in the ‘mom and pop’ market who will tend to pull thier listings off the market when they don’t ‘get thier price’.
I would go after the specuvestor multi unit holders and especially the small builders. As a real estate school grad mentioned correctly in an earlier string ‘the builders profit is tied up in the last 25% of the project’ although this number isn’t carved in stone it is on the right track. This isn’t just 25% it is actually ALL THIER CASH .
You want to find someone who “HAS” to sell not someone who’ll only sell ‘IF’. i would pay attention to large projects who may suddenly ‘ blow up’ into recievership.
Single family home builders are particularily vulnerable at this point in the cycle. They simply cannot afford to hold on, the COC loan gets pulled every thirty days after the construction phase is completed, this type of builder has the most to lose. This is where the knives are going cut the deepest. I don’t think we’re at that stage yet. I would look for a small project.
Bottomline, as a hunter you must be very patient, the game is still afoot. I would look at every project and start to inventory, without any offers tendered. Research is power.
Last time I bought an investment property I waited for everything to be in my favour. I walked away from dozens and dozens of ‘deals’. I waited to find a true forced sale which turned out to be a marital breakdown and the occupier being transferred suddenly out of Province and they needed to sell immediatly ( that week). I offered all cash, no subjects and quick ( same week ) completion. I got a HUGE discount. I paid far less than other offers because I could make it happen , no subjects.
I waited for that deal to come along for at least four months and that was in a good market. I made money the day I signed that deal, thats the way it should be. I would have waited six months I don’t care about time.
The low ball offer is not an art it is a tool. If you don’t get the deal so what, walk away and keep looking, theres a deal a minute in real estate.
Baron Rothschild said ” Only buy when theres blood in the streets”, we are not quite at that stage yet, but it’s like a big wave coming into view. For now, sit back on your cash and good credit and wait until desperate sellers are begging you to buy. Be predatory, stay alert and don’t fall for some of the slick spin the developers and governments are puking up. They are desperate , you are not.
January 11th, 2009 at 2:34 pm
Arit:
Check these numbers
We are approaching “Absolute Zero”
Shows Units listed , Units sold, Active Listings . # of months on market…etc
http://richmondbcrealestates.com/?cat=120
January 11th, 2009 at 2:28 pm
No-Lympics: Putting the social housing units in the shadow seem reasonable to me. Actually, if social housing units can be eliminated at this stage, Vancouver might actually get some much needed cash in a presale, whatever the price may be. The social housing units are of lower quality, and can probably be sold at lower prices. The city is in serious cash crunch, with most of its assets really liabilities. I don’t see how you can call social housing units “assets” when it’s a political suicide to kick out the people living in them.
The big view crap is typical of boom time realtor-speak. Once the dust settles, the huge penthouse units will crash the hardest, as they have the worst price/rent ratio. Anyone notice that there’s disproportional number of huge penthouse units for rent in Craigslist, given the targeted buyers who are supposedly mega-rich?
January 11th, 2009 at 2:25 pm
TOOOO FUNNY
(Re; U -KNOW- WHO !!!)
B.C.’s Olympics of realty
Canada’s biggest condo Realtor sells of Vancouver’s last waterfront property
http://www.macleans.ca/article.....8738_58738
January 11th, 2009 at 2:23 pm
From the Province newspaper ARCHIVES
B.C. condo projects take another hit
Work on buildings in Vancouver, Surrey, Kelowna and Island halted
Cheryl Chan, The Province
Published: Sunday, October 26, 2008
QUOTE:
Construction along North Vancouver’s waterfront — the future site of a major development project that will include a conference centre, 108-room hotel, an office building and a 20-storey residential tower — also went silent earlier this month.
But developer Michael De Cotiis of Pinnacle International said the stoppage doesn’t have anything to do with economic woes.
“We are waiting for approval for subdivision and service approvals for water pipes and road construction,” he said.
De Cotiis said he expects construction to resume in three to four weeks and for the current project, a 12-storey highrise, to be completed by the target date of August 2009.
===================================================
I wonder how Pinnacle projects are going thse days ?
PINNACLE owns 2/3 of the massive residential developement in North Richmond.
It didn’t even send a REP to the City of Richmond meeting last week , and has till early March to get its act together with its partner(CONCORD) or the City will cancel the entire project, because several 3rd reading ” subject- to ” deadlines have already been missed.
January 11th, 2009 at 2:22 pm
Legacy Towers on Lougheed and Holdom has already slashed priced on all remaining units. I read this in the new home mag that you can pick up outside of Safeway.
I think the biggest reduction is 30k on a 2BR.
January 11th, 2009 at 1:40 pm
macchiato: Pffft, why wait till next week to see developers dropping their… prices? On Friday a coworker showed me an ad in some local WOPRER (waste of paper real estate rag) named “Vancouer View” for a development at 12th and Arbutus called Luzon. I guess that’s the residential version of that grocery chain SaveOn.
Anyhoo, the ad said there were 10 condos available for sale. I forgot the details on the pricing, but I remember they were marked down by quite a bit. So I did a little digging… scroll down on this page for all the details:
http://www.vancouver-real-esta.....d-pre.html
Here’s what the developer is looking at today:
* 1br: $455000 -> $375000 ($80k, 18% reduction)
* 2br: $795900 -> $595000 ($201k, 25% reduction)
* GST and property tax included
And here’s the real kicker; remember those 10 suites left? It is a 10 suite building.
January 11th, 2009 at 1:32 pm
Re: Olsen on your side.
Actually, Olsen did a series warning people about the RE market in February 2007. He was a year before the top. I am quite sure that this took some balls because the pressure on the media to be bubble blowers / civic boosters is immense. He withstood that pressure and warned people about the market.
So, I would be quite hesitant to bad-mouth Olsen. If I were to guess, his upcoming piece on condo buying might be very skeptical. Wait and see.
January 11th, 2009 at 1:26 pm
No-Olympics, re: post 203,
I can say it isn’t Concord Pacific, but you would probably recognize the name. I’ll leave it at that.
January 11th, 2009 at 1:04 pm
Post 201:
I had heard that the profit margin in the RE condo market, on average, was approx 30% markup over cost..ie approx.1/3
If that’s true. the developer you refer to is blowing them out “at cost”. This is usually your first warning sign…their crystal ball says no hope on the horizon…”Geronimo”
The Developer? My guess is Concord ( or someone near the Olympic Village, for obvious reasons).
However, didn’t Concord take over the big Infinity project in Surrey ?
What gives?
This may be a means to drive a death blow to their competition…my guess given the aforementioned is Concord can weather the storm….the strategy may be to force the competiton to flood the market and create a “last man standing” bloodbath.
Not sure what other developer would fit this profile.
Or this may be a F*ck You, etc. to COV re: the pending Olympic Village glut.
Regardless: Someone had to blink first in any case.
January 11th, 2009 at 12:49 pm
Arit:
The Realtor? …..boiled down…its a service industry … BUSINESS Pure and Simple….so what service do they provide?
(i) Access to the MLS (simply a selection -based “shopping convenience” ..saves time, but actually a monopoly on RE info/insider RE info.
(ii) Quasi-legal …contractual language/sales and purchase agreements ..use T-H-E-I-R standard RE forms vetted by T-H-E-I-R legal counsel (…thus hard to f*ck up), but NOW you are now beholden to them and their way of doing business.
(iii) errors and ommission insurance (if things go bad/south )
(iv) give you a company calendar at Xmas.
Or ……IF you can find a steal of a deal for a well -built house(which are not really that hard to find…if you Keep It SIMPLE ), all you need is a notary or lawyer (who are also insured) to complete the paperwork.
Realtors are basically “RE info swappers” amongst “RE info gatekeepers “.
The rest can be outsourced to other quailified professionals (excluding BIG RE commission) if one wishes to go that route.
January 11th, 2009 at 12:25 pm
A1 has been saying: “Big developer cuts in prices coming this week!!!!!!!!!”
I can actually corroborate with similar news but probably concerning a different Developer. I have knowledge of upcoming price reductions by a Developer with several multi-unit projects. The figure I came across was that they will be discounting the lot by 1/3.
Is the Developer rush for the exits about to begin? Seems that way, we’ll see.