Friday free-for-all!
Friday has arrived, lets open up the weekend open topic discussion and news round-up. Here are a few stories I’ve noticed this week:
-Olympic Security costs quintiple to $1 billion
-“Buy American” rule in stimulus package worries Harper
-Good time to bet on the loonie?
-IMF skeptical about Canadian governments rosy forecast
-Deep, long recession predicted by CME CEO
-A 42% mortgage rate on failed MacKenzie mill?
-Record number getting jobless benefits in US
-US New home sales fall to record low
-Hyundai offers job loss assurance on new cars
So what are you seeing out there? Post your news, links and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!
note: any conversation on Vancouver, real estate or economics is allowed, please keep it civilized. When posting articles please only quote pertinent points and link to the original instead of pasting the entire article here. Pasting a link into your comment will automatically create a clickable hot-link. Linking to more than one external link within a single comment may cause your submission to get held up in the spam filter.
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February 2nd, 2009 at 5:08 pm
Lets make this topic an even 300 COMMENTS !!
February 2nd, 2009 at 3:40 pm
I grew up at 8th and Alder in the ’50′s, False Creek was a playground of log booms and mills. The area has always been a swamp fed by run off from a fairly active stream that ran down from Grandview. The steel mills and the cooperage took up a lot of land and I seem to remember a big Bee Hive Burner down where the old Finning site used to be. basically the whole area was sloppy and wet mud, too muddy for brush.
Interesting enough you mention ‘was the site pre-loaded’ good question, I don’t remember seeing any pre-load on the site. They did clear down to quite a depth though and remove the industrial history for the most part. wheteher there was any bedrock down there is another question. If they drove down dolphins then obviously there is no bedrock and it could be soupy.
February 2nd, 2009 at 3:30 pm
NO -LYMPICS:
So they’re not calling it a crash, it’s just that thier buisness has gone to zero? Thats an intresting way to phrase it. Kind of like the cheerleader who swears her poo doesn’t stink. Nice idea but you know she’s full of shit.
I wouldn’t call this a crash. It’s like a market freeze. It’s like everything’s been held in suspended animation.”
The public is refusing to buy and that has caused developers to put on the brakes.
Mr. McAllister, who heads the company Ledingham McAllister, said he was at a gathering recently that included every major developer in town. He asked them how many projects they were starting in 2009. The answer was zero.
And no one is sure when the current cocoon state will end.
February 2nd, 2009 at 3:18 pm
NO -LYMPICS:
a history of False Creek
February 2nd, 2009 at 2:16 pm
The Pope: I am loath to post rumours usually and this is second-hand, which is why I would love for a reporter whose job it is to suss out the details take it and run with it.
This is from a co-worker who has a friend who is an engineer on site. The usual friend-of-a-friend stuff so be careful. He said this is the “next story” in 3-4 months.
BTW the last rumour I threw out there turned out to be true (the Spectrum subletter douchebag) but it took a month for CBC to catch up and report on it. Just sayin’…
but remember past performance is no indication of future returns…
It isn’t necessarily that OV is built on reclaimed land or whatever; there are ways of handling that. It’s whether it was done properly in the first place that we should be finding out, for the benefit of future investors, er, owners. If you’re a taxpayer in COV, maybe you don’t WANT to know until these places have been completely sold!!!
February 2nd, 2009 at 2:02 pm
jesse: Do you have a source for that rumour?
February 2nd, 2009 at 1:57 pm
B.C. housing market in a deep freeze
Developers worry about how to keep companies going during hibernation that some predict won’t break until after the Olympics
http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....ional/home
QUOTE:
VANCOUVER — Ward McAllister has been through five housing-market crashes since he finished university in 1982 and started working in development. But he and other B.C. developers have never seen anything quite like this one.
“I wouldn’t call this a crash. It’s like a market freeze. It’s like everything’s been held in suspended animation.”
The public is refusing to buy and that has caused developers to put on the brakes.
—-
Comment: No more denying what the rest of us have been saying for MONTHS?
==============
At a recent Urban Development Institute event focused on forecasting the future, developers Rob Macdonald and Michael Audain were optimistic in their speeches to the anxious crowd of 1,100. They predicted the market in B.C. will return to something approaching normal this fall, although with a reduction from last year’s peak prices.
But others are less optimistic.
“We don’t think it’s coming back any time soon,” said David Negrin, the immediate past president of the UDI who heads the development arm of Aquilini Investments. “We don’t see it coming back until at least after the Olympics.”
That’s at least a year and a half from now.
Translation:
The realists are distancing themselves from the BS artists.
===================================
QUOTE:
So how do companies keep themselves going in the hibernation period?
That’s a question not just for developers, but for a vast industry. One in every 10 people works in the province’s construction industry, everyone from the guy hired to pound nails to architects to truck drivers to the developers themselves.
In September, the construction sector accounted for 235,000 jobs in the province. By November, it was down to 220,000.
Some developers locally have joked that they’re going to cope with the downturn by going to Phoenix or taking up a new hobby. In reality, most of them are trying to find a way to keep their companies busy, in order to keep their employees working, to prevent losing valuable staff and to continue making money.
Some, as reported in December, are taking a fresh look at the economics of building rental apartments.
=====
Comment: Build Rentals?
Are you nucking futs? What will happen to the oversupply of condos you have sold or tried to sell. You will leave buyers/condo owners further distresed,holding the bag and create a major across- the- board collapse in RE values.
Where will the renters come from? No new ones…you will simply steal and poach them from elsewhere.
What ARE you guys smoking? The last batch got us in this mess to start !
February 2nd, 2009 at 1:38 pm
290 jesse Says:
February 2nd, 2009 at 1:22 pm
RUMOUR ALERT!!!
Olympic Village has foundation problems. Apparently the “piping” used to level and stabilize the ground may not have been done properly. Already there are foundation shifts. I hope a good muckraking reporter (like Kirk Williams) looking to earn his/her stars starts asking some questions with site engineers. It will be interesting to hear if this rumour is true.
———————————–
FYI:( BTW error re: the previous posting)
How many people know that the False Creek area was one of the CoV’s city Dump sites way back when?.
When BC Place and GM place was built..it was a gold mine for bottle collectors etc. when they excavated the site.All sorts of interesting stuff made up the non-indigenous fill material.
Many of the flats surrounding False Creek had a variety of fill material.
Olympic Village was probably built on the same type of uncompacted dump/fill material…or material not necessarily compacted enough /less stable.
Was the area pre-loaded ?
This all goes full circle to the COV’s zeal to undertake such a major project with a looming deadline.
Talk about volatile !
If this is true, man watch out…this could get UGLY. COV can’t get away with being a shitty quickie builder.it would be hooped on numerous fronts.!.
” Haste makes waste “…as the saying goes.
February 2nd, 2009 at 1:30 pm
It also seemes ‘we’re all shopped out’ Macy’s lays off 7000 !
But now the good news IOC accepts Mike Phelps ‘apology’ fro getting photographed smoking dope! What a turn of events !! They hung Ross Rebegliatti out to dry for having smoked pot at some point prior to the games. A bit hypocritical. Is it because the IOC has big advertising plans for the Phelpster?
February 2nd, 2009 at 1:26 pm
290 jesse Says:
February 2nd, 2009 at 1:22 pm
RUMOUR ALERT!!!
Olympic Village has foundation problems. Apparently the “piping” used to level and stabilize the ground may not have been done properly. Already there are foundation shifts. I hope a good muckraking reporter (like Kirk Williams) looking to earn his/her stars starts asking some questions with site engineers. It will be interesting to hear if this rumour is true.
FYI:
How many people know that the False Creek area wa sone of the cV;s dumps way back when
February 2nd, 2009 at 1:23 pm
One other thing:
Richmond’s new City Center Area Plan OCP has taken a major area of Richmond previously Light industrial /Commercial West of #3Rd and to the Oval and given it a High Density residential zoning.
This created higher assessments based on “highest and best” use criteria . Many of the businesses pay “Triple Net”, and are forced to pay the increased property taxes.
However, the market for Hi Rise has tanked , but the OCP stays in place. Many of these businesses will be hit with a double whammy..slow economy yet forced to pay higher property taxes.
My prediction is many will fold…many of them had stated that the area could easily turn into a ghost town. United Furniture , one of the larger businesses has already advertised it is closing forever. So, because of this condo mania, another example of collateral damage is many long term viable businesses may close and create even more unemployment, when really it never should have happened or been allowed to happen
February 2nd, 2009 at 1:22 pm
RUMOUR ALERT!!!
Olympic Village has foundation problems. Apparently the “piping” used to level and stabilize the ground may not have been done properly. Already there are foundation shifts. I hope a good muckraking reporter (like Kirk Williams) looking to earn his/her stars starts asking some questions with site engineers. It will be interesting to hear if this rumour is true.
February 2nd, 2009 at 1:13 pm
287 macchiato Says:
February 2nd, 2009 at 1:08 pm
NO -LYMPICS: It was all over years ago for Mac’s, the day they discontinued the Slush Cat.
==============
Is that true? I haven’t had a Slushie(or equivalent) in a while. I had read that these things were one of the chain convenience stores biggest sellers/profit margins.
February 2nd, 2009 at 1:10 pm
Re Business closures;
The Xmas season has concluded, which many say puts a business in the black. Now they have to try and stay afloat for the next one.
Too many stores were selling overpriced items on credit..volatile brew.
I would keep an eye on the Rodeo Drive types of areas.ie Robson Street. High overhead, usually requires high end and high prices .
Lansdowne Mall has bee dead for years, even in the boom times. City allowed far too much retail expansion elsewhere, especially the Asian Malls like Abderdeen. Lansdowne Mall opened in the late 1970′s and within 10 years came a major influx from Hong Kong.
Re: Lansdowne Mall future ?…will be gone in the future, the City OCP has other plans for that site. My guess is its gone in 10 years.
February 2nd, 2009 at 1:08 pm
NO -LYMPICS: It was all over years ago for Mac’s, the day they discontinued the Slush Cat.
February 2nd, 2009 at 12:58 pm
271 Mr. Happyness and Joy Says:
February 2nd, 2009 at 10:05 am
NO -LYMPICS:
The real estate market in Vancouver operated exactly in the same mathematical model as a typical pyramid scheme. As in every pyramid scheme the mathematics work against every new particapant as it becomes neccessary to suck in ever increasing numbers of new suckers.
=========
Good post !
However, after the crash and burn…hopefully an economic autopsy is made and the ” coroner ” makes recommendations.
The suspects should be identified and the appropriate blame levied. Much of this mess was , in essence , white collar crime, though they will never want to admit it.
Speaking of ” mathematical models ” , I am still not sure how many really appreciate how such things as quants, derivatives etc inflitrated and affected the RE market..especially in the US. The delusional zeal by so called “bright well -educated professionals” to create profits that could never really be acheived in the “real fundamental-based world” took many down with it when the ” black swans ” which hit BIG time .
However, as a personal observation, I find it interesting that the RE product that is being flogged now as in “distress/liquidation” sale mode ie ONNI and H + H is either from Developers many VCI posters have less than positive things to say re quality and service, or is , in essence poorly – designed overpriced shoe boxes which had no value then and will have no value later..
ONNI and the rest of De Cotiis family (Amacon and Pinnacle etc.) remind me of that gal who recently had Octuplets in addition to the 6 children they already had. The De Cotiis family seem to breed condos like rabbits, have far too much product even within ONE De Cotiis company. One almost wonders if the De Cotiis bunch had more of a pissing match internally, they were simply cutting their own throats besides everyone else’s as well.
That rush to build so much product inherently lowers the quality and it is also reasonable to profile them as the first to bail when the market collapses. In other words, the shite from greedy quickie developers will bubble onto the market first before the cream starts(if there really is any good product that has true value and not simply decadent mind candy frills.
It all goes part and parcel with the way certain development groups do business.
That’s the way I see it unfolding.
February 2nd, 2009 at 12:49 pm
jesse:
Strollers ….. makes me sssshuddder just thinking about it. Brrrrrrr, scary. all the same , good point. But no, I remember explicitly that there no vacancies at the the Landsdowne mall in Richmond for awhile, nor on 4th Ave in Vanc as I am there everyday. Now there are.
And I certainly hope that Supraboys obsession with Chinese restaurants in Richmond is not a ‘fetish’ because that implies he’s making sticky either in the washrooms or under the table between servings ( or gasp) with the servings.
Heres a blast from the past which reminded me of the ’80′s recession here in vanc.
MIAMI (WSVN) — The unemployment rate in South Florida is rising, officials said. While the rise serves as a sign of tough times, Miami Fire Rescue is hoping to change that around by accepting hundreds of applications.
The City of Miami will be accepting applications for 35 firefighter positions on Monday, applications will be accepted and there is no guarantee to be hired. Hopeful applicants have been lining up to apply since Saturday.
Fernando Figueroa is hoping for a chance to become a Miami firefighter. He stood amongst thousands Sunday hoping to get a chance at employment. “I’m unemployed. I just got out of active duty for the Marines. I have a son. I have to pay the bills, and pretty much it’s tough times,” Figueroa said.
The line wrapped around an acre of land at Miami Riverside Center and first in line stood Alex Valdez. “It’s hitting really hard. People are trying to survive and people are desperate,” Valdez said
Vancouver deja vu. I remember Vancouver in about 1984 when thousands would line up for an advertised busboy or waiters position. The companies would make them compete with little demeaning games like roller skating with a tray of glasses and crawling through an obstacle coure. I think we’ll get back there again.
February 2nd, 2009 at 11:39 am
“I also noticed a number a number of newly vacant store fronts in Landsdowne Mall and along #3 rd.”
When my wife was pregnant we went to a mall and all of a sudden noticed how many strollers were being pushed around. It’s not that there were suddenly more strollers, we were just more attuned to look for them. The vacant store fronts were always there, only now with a recession underway we start looking for the signs (or lack of signs lol). Same with for sale signs, dark lights in condos, etc. etc.
Same with Supraboy and his voyeuristic fetish with Richmond restaurateurs.
February 2nd, 2009 at 11:26 am
NO -LYMPICS:
I also noticed a number a number of newly vacant store fronts in Landsdowne Mall and along #3 rd. I’ve started noticing more of this since some else mentioned it on this blog over the week end. I saw several blank spaces along 4th ave in Kits/Vanc yesterday too which weren’t there before.
It has just happened recently I think, because I didn’t notice so many closings before.
Signs of things to come?
February 2nd, 2009 at 11:12 am
261 Patiently Waiting Says:
February 1st, 2009 at 10:12 pm
I was on Austin Ave. in Coquitlam today. Between Nelson and Marmont, opposite the Safeway, it seemed like half the storefronts were empty with paper in the windows. About six closed businesses. Two were Payday loan/cheque cashing places so won’t be missed. But also a cafe, a nicnac gift store, medical office etc.
I said to my wife, “This is what a recession looks like.”
=======================================
Absolutely right!
I was driving around Richmond yesterday, and my eye caught a sign – less bunch of flouresecent tubes shining brightly above where a “MAC’s Convenience Store” was.
This MAC’s Store is in the midst of medium -to- high density residential, , no competing convenience store for 1/2 mile in either direction and close to a High School.
However, Signs on the windows say ” Permanenty Closed ” .
Still lots of product on the shelves…yet looks abandoned .
February 2nd, 2009 at 11:00 am
It’s becoming increasingly apparent that the ‘ China Miracle’ was just a flash in the pan. Tens of millions return to poverty as markets die and hundreds of thousands of urban factories close in a continuing death spiral. Apparently the real economy of China was based on Westren spending and nothing to do with internal development. I would expect the Communist Party to crack down, shut the doors and reform the population ( again) to control the false expectations of the people.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/envi.....sion-china
http://www.guardian.co.uk/busi.....ent-unrest
February 2nd, 2009 at 10:56 am
Re Canwest/Global:
Izzy Asper must be rolling in his grave.
His history as a media mogul is an interesting read.
However, his epitaph should include HUBRIS and perhaps believing his own press.
One “could” perhaps, blame this CanWest/Global mess on the old passing of the family business onto the next generation( ie the owners kids screw up the family legacy ), but even if Izzy was alive I think that Canwest could very likely go belly – up.
Like the RE meltdown, I think there will be a major media meltdown, given the media tied much of its own horse to the RE market and other unsustainable revenue generators.
Unfortunately that will likely lead to even greater consolidation of the media as they cobble together the survivors .
February 2nd, 2009 at 10:41 am
“It’s beyond foolish to think that you can make intelligent conclusions based on a random data point in a newspaper ad. That’s like quoting an idiot like Bob Rennie or Cameron Muir and concluding that Vancouver prices are merely “taking a breather”. No disrespect, but you would do well to leave analysis of foreign property markets to people who are actually knowledgeable about those markets”
The information a realtard will give you and what is actually happening are two differant things, no matter what country your in. Well I shouldn’t say that, I was in switzerland not long ago and the realtor agent looked like I’d farted a ripe one in his car when I mentioned negotiation, apparently, “they don’t do that there”. I knew the culture from having lived ther as a kid but I like to screw with salesmen no matter where they are.
I see that you are by extension trying to be polite, but I may point out to you that times have changed ( particluarily in the Orient)and leaving the analysis to ‘professionals’ is exactly the attitude that has got so many people in the pickle they are in.
In HK list prices mean nothing ( but this is the same in every country I have done buisness in in the Orient), negotiation is everything. Location variables are easily understood of course. You have trumpeted yourself as a savvy citizen of the world, and thats nice for you , but I , in my much smaller way am forced to travel to the Orient several times a year (boo hoo for me I know) as a wage slave and see changes taking place ( big whopping price reductions in the property market place there, particularily in Bangkok, Singapore Jakarta, Hong Kong and Beijing. Perhaps it’s been a while for you and you remember a better time? In all due respect of course.
February 2nd, 2009 at 10:41 am
Patriotz quote:
” The only way out of this is to sell to a greater fool. Well guess what, we’ve run out”.
Exactly , and couldn’t have said it better.
What people such as realturds , denialists (and trolls) simply do NOT get is that the RE ramp up was based on greater fools trying to find EVEN GREATER FOOLS, Pure and simple. There aren’t any left, if nothing else the banks have cut them off, hence RE bubble is over and now deflating.
February 2nd, 2009 at 10:33 am
Re: Schools and planning communities
IMHO , City planners and Local Gov’ts have F’d up big time.
In the good old days, the catchment areas were your basic , middle – class neighbourhood.
However, what I have noticed is when a SFH area converts to Higher density, a school is built in the neighbourhood , but few children are coming from these new developments, the logic being that these units do not attract families, but singles, retirees, professionals and child – less couples.
In essence, they have forced parents with school age children to the periphery, resulting in school closures in some areas while concentrating school population in other schools. Unless the RE meltdown turns high – density areas into “quasi – housing projects ” that bring back families based on affordability, Inner Cities will be dead zones as far as attracting a healthy mix of residents. However, these high density units , ironically, are not necessarily “neighbourly” or involve a lot of interaction amongst neighbours.
This ” la -de -da” lifestyle and ” World Class City” pablum to attract people to future ghettos like Yaletown is exactly that , pablum without any merit. Those ads of smiling yuppies living the clean sophisticated urban lifestyle are quite amusing, and moreso now.
Far too many also bought the rest of the kool-aid mantra ie “Build UP , Not OUT”, based on the so-called lack of a land – making machine. This “high -density” crap was exploited to the max and ended up one of the biggest economic black holes our economy has ever seen.
This whole “bad planning” thing is shaping up to be a sociological and societal disaster in addition to the economic one .
February 2nd, 2009 at 10:24 am
Understanding Canwest Globals bleak financial situation may give you an insight into why they are prepared to print any BS , lies or nonsense with absolute disregard. At this point it is probably regretting it has no children to eat.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/.....0920090202
February 2nd, 2009 at 10:09 am
NO -LYMPICS:
Many current purchasers must feel trapped, “caught between a rock and a hard place”, with the fear of court action if they bail…or locked into a purchase they will ultimately lose money on .
If you buy a property for more than its fundamental value, or to approximate when your monthly ownership costs are greater than rent, you have lost money as soon as you bought it. It’s like borrowing $100 to buy a $50 bill. You have committed yourself to servicing debt and property expenses that exceed the value that the property is returning to you.
The only way out of this is to sell to a greater fool. Well guess what, we’ve run out.
February 2nd, 2009 at 10:06 am
266 was m. I never miss an opportunity to take cheap shots at Supratard.
February 2nd, 2009 at 10:05 am
NO -LYMPICS:
The real estate market in Vancouver operated exactly in the same mathematical model as a typical pyramid scheme. As in every pyramid scheme the mathematics work against every new particapant as it becomes neccessary to suck in ever increasing numbers of new suckers.
In the classic ’8-ball’ pyramid scheme there are simply not enough people on the planet for the players to be paid out and the scheme implodes under it’s own wieght. The greateer fool concept was really working in Vancouver because of the constant and unremitting hype spewed out by the media. But like too many rats in a cage , the industry has now become murderous and cannabalistic in a no holds barred ‘screw the public at any cost’ game of self-preservation with the media complicit all the way due to thier greed for ad revenues in a shinking ad pool.
http://www.mathmotivation.com/.....cheme.html
February 2nd, 2009 at 9:56 am
“This blog is an INSULT to free speech an should be regarded as useless tripe propaganda of TOTALLY bored losers.”
You idiot! Get a lawyer and find out what the right to free speech is. It protects speech from GOVERNMENT censorship. Private people like bloggers and newspaper owners can print or not print anything they want.
Start your own blog instead of making idiotic complaints.
February 2nd, 2009 at 9:54 am
Discounting the price of condos is also happening in San Francisco. Glut of inventory, buyeres holding off for better deals in the future, Some active buyers give up and decide to wait.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/.....refer=home
February 2nd, 2009 at 9:53 am
I think the RE meltdown issue also revolves around the various collateral damage.
All sorts of dynamics are going on as we speak.
The bubble has popped, but its also created a literal and figurative leg hold trap for many.
The trap left a bread crumb trail that both attracted and concurrently scraped the bottom of the barrel for the largest pool of RE owner wannabees.
IMHO, there is no-one left in the line-up, its been plucked for the most part.
I am sure many of us have anecdotes of those fully prepared to ” follow the fundamentals” , but felt trapped into making a dive in to the RE market when it heated up (ie ” if we don’t buy now we will be priced out forever ” ). This simply exacerbated the situation .
Then they allowed those 0/40 types of fools into the line-up, the ones who should have waited their turn and tempered the market as a more conservative one than the speculative one it became .
Now, I am wondering if we have almost wiped out a generation of RE purchasers.
The economic meltdown(much of which was RE related ) has, and will continue to , wreak havoc in the job base, as employers fold…many likely never to return.
Many current purchasers must feel trapped, “caught between a rock and a hard place”, with the fear of court action if they bail…or locked into a purchase they will ultimately lose money on .
For young adults now, and similar types starting out, IMHO they will be facing an even worse job market than what existed in the early 1980′s.
Concurrently, a lot of Sellers will have a lot of future plans dashed as well as a result of this mess.
February 2nd, 2009 at 9:53 am
“Not everyone agrees with the doom and gloom CONTINUALLY dished up here … including insulting real estate agents.”
You don’t agree with the Doom and Goom? Funny. I challenge you to refer to any happy and optomistic economic data from the last four months that would suggest good times ahead.
I gues you also will not agree that water is wet.
February 2nd, 2009 at 9:47 am
Anonymous:
“A recession of biblical proportions” says Fortune Magazine. The consumer has played it all backwards by spending all thier savings in the good times and having no safety net to cushion the blow when times are bad
http://money.cnn.com/2009/02/0.....2009020210
February 2nd, 2009 at 8:59 am
Hey Supra:
Wrong…. again. I’m in culinary school and we are quite gleeful; restaurants are the LAST places to see problems in a recession and the first to recover. Mind you the margins are always thin, so it’s a tradeoff.
When people get hired, how do their friends celebrate? Dinner out. When people get laid off, how do their friends console them? Dinner out. When you’re on a first date, where do you go? Dinner. When people get bad news, how do they console themselves? Dinner.
At the end of the day unless there’s a global famine, people eat. If they have less money, the go to less expensive places, but they still go out.
Dumbass.
February 2nd, 2009 at 8:52 am
Well planned, good schools, nice vistas etc.
Well planned? CoV west side for sure, parts of the North Shore yes, but for pretty much all the rest of the metro, you must be joking.
The basic mistake was made in the 1950′s when an extensive transit system was dismantled in favour of the private automobile. In a city of over two million with an obstacle course of natural features this simply does not work. Both drivers and transit users are suffering the consequences, and billions are being spent trying to bring some relief to both. It would have been vastly cheaper if the city and metro had remained transit oriented.
February 2nd, 2009 at 8:15 am
Hi Everyone,
After months of hearing comparisons (and smiling at them) between “The World Class Cities” of London and Vancouver, I can tell you that today London met the high standards set by Vancouver. This morning a foot of snow fell on London and it ground to a halt. 6 million bus commuters were left stranded. 3 of the 4 million tube users were outta luck. 4 of the 5 airports closed down and 400 flights (so far) were cancelled. Hundreds of trains were cancelled.
I love Vancouver, and hope to return one day, but it has got to stop comparing itself to other cities and start revelling in what it is…a nice place to live. Well planned, good schools, nice vistas etc.
This recession may turn out to be a good thing for the city. It may stop the weird disconnect between income and housing that would almost certainly have destroyed the town as a living entity and made it into a rather wet, cold, and grey Monaco. Or made it into a tourist town like Venice where the average age of the few residents left is about 60.
I think you dodged a bullet people. It is going to hurt a lot of people…not just speculators, but in the end, maybe residents will see their houses as homes rather than “investments”. And then Vancouver will start looking less like a urban planners dream of a suburb to a real city and more like a community of like minded people.
February 2nd, 2009 at 1:19 am
“Not everyone agrees with the doom and gloom CONTINUALLY dished up here … including insulting real estate agents.”
Typically reccessions in a capitalist market are an efficient way of cleaning out bad business and out dated practice. In certain bull markets in the states and in canada *electronic* listing services gained as much as 33% of the market share in some cities as a cost saving alterative to an agent. We are now in a recession and it is likely that many realtors will jump ship. As each recession repeats you will have a younger group that is more competent with technology. That being said in the future your time to prove your marketing skills would actually be in a recession rather then in a bull market. That being said the lying and deception which has stained your profession durring this market cycle may not be the best strategy moving forward.
February 2nd, 2009 at 1:03 am
“Restaurants are the first places that you’d see the effects of a recession.”
Historically the’ve actually been near the last. My understanding is that it was “large cap” projcts that are first to go; they have the most risk and are most subseptible to overruns (so building and IT which we’ve seen). Open up an econ book
February 1st, 2009 at 10:12 pm
I was on Austin Ave. in Coquitlam today. Between Nelson and Marmont, opposite the Safeway, it seemed like half the storefronts were empty with paper in the windows. About six closed businesses. Two were Payday loan/cheque cashing places so won’t be missed. But also a cafe, a nicnac gift store, medical office etc.
I said to my wife, “This is what a recession looks like.”
February 1st, 2009 at 9:40 pm
PopeisaDOPE: “This blog is an INSULT to free speech an should be regarded as useless tripe propaganda of TOTALLY bored losers.”
If you think banning someone who is griefing a blog is an offense against free speech, you have a pretty shallow understanding of the concept of free speech.
Nobody is saying you can’t disagree with other people, just show some respect. It really isn’t that hard.
February 1st, 2009 at 9:34 pm
“‘Pang Guixiong, 46, chairman of the Zogood Group, a large sugar corporation, fell to his death from his 23rd-floor apartment in Zhanjiang, a city in the southern Chinese Guangdong province, late last week.’”
Add one more to the places for sale.
February 1st, 2009 at 8:44 pm
The head cheerleader is as dopey as the rest of the girls.
This blog is an INSULT to free speech an should be regarded as useless tripe propaganda of TOTALLY bored losers.
February 1st, 2009 at 8:20 pm
badnewsbear:
“The recession is here and in a year it will be noticeably ugly, things are bound to get ugly during the Olympic party. I think a billion for security will be eclipsed in tear gas cannisters alone.”
Why wait? We don’t need tear gas because most BC citizens are crying tears already because of this Olympic fiasco. They can save the tear gas and hand out boxes of Kleenex tissues.
February 1st, 2009 at 7:19 pm
kissyourassgoodbye:
“Read the real estate section of the “South China Morning Post”.
Look, I’m not trying to be rude, but your statements are absurd. I am a huge housing bear. Not just in Vancouver, where I expect housing prices to fall another 50% or more, but also in NY, HK, etc. I would not be surprised if housing prices continue to decline worldwide for years into the future (rather than “flatlining” a couple of years from now, as some bears have predicted). I’m probably a bigger bear than even some bears on this site.
But glancing at a newspaper ad or some random data in a chinese newspaper, and concluding on that basis that “HK housing prices are more affordable than Vancouver prices” is obtuse. When you see a price point advertised in a HK paper, you need to be familiar with the neighborhood where that property is located in order to make a meaningful comparison to the corresponding “comp” in Vancouver. For example, if the property you saw advertised is located in the “New Territories” area of HK, then a comparable neighborhood in Vancouver might be something like South Surrey or Aldergrove, not Vancouver West. Anyone who is remotely knowledgeable about the Vancouver and HK markets knows that HK property prices are multiples more expensive (in absolute terms) than comparable Vancouver property prices. And that’s how it should be, given economic and demographic profiles of these two cities. What’s next, are you going to read a random ad in a London newspaper and tell us that London prices are more affordable than Vancouver prices?
It’s beyond foolish to think that you can make intelligent conclusions based on a random data point in a newspaper ad. That’s like quoting an idiot like Bob Rennie or Cameron Muir and concluding that Vancouver prices are merely “taking a breather”. No disrespect, but you would do well to leave analysis of foreign property markets to people who are actually knowledgeable about those markets.
February 1st, 2009 at 7:14 pm
Recievership sale after majority of flippers don’t complete on purchases at HH. This is just the beginning gang, get out the popcorn and snacks
http://condohype.wordpress.com/
February 1st, 2009 at 6:31 pm
Supraboy:
This another aspect of spending habits you may consider. People are statistically using more credit recently and paying lesser amounts on thier monthly bills. Things are not as they appear if you’re just looking at the surface, dig deeper and it’s another story.
Consumers are dramatically scaling back how much of their credit card balances they pay each month.
Data released this month show that the credit card payment rate — the percentage of outstanding card debt paid — fell by 2.5 percentage points to 16.1%. The drop in November, the latest month available, is among the largest on record, according to CardTrak.com, a credit card research firm.
“It’s kind of shocking,” says Robert McKinley, founder of CardTrak.com. “It indicates that there are fundamental changes in the way that consumers view and use credit.”
The credit card payment rate is a widely watched indicator of consumers’ financial health. Its plunge comes as consumers have become more reluctant — and less able — to take on debt. Revolving debt, much of it on credit cards, dipped at a 3.4% annual rate in November to $973.5 billion, after flattening in October, preliminary numbers from the Federal Reserve show.
Even with less debt, consumers are struggling to pay their credit card bills. The average household with at least one credit card owed $10,728 in 2008, nearly the same amount as in 2007, according to CardTrak.com.
“People have limited amounts of income,” says James Chessen, chief economist at the American Bankers Association.
Consumers also have less access to balance-transfer offers and home-equity loans these days, other factors behind the lower payment rate, said David Nelms, the chief executive of Discover Financial, in a recent conference call with analysts. November was a “low point” for Discover with card payment rates, Nelms noted.
As the economy slumps, even consumers who can pay their bills may feel it’s prudent to reduce their monthly payments to conserve cash instead, says Cynthia Ullrich, a senior director at Fitch Ratings, which rates corporate debt.
Historically, consumers pay an average of about 18% of balances each month, McKinley says. “The payment rate can drift down in recessionary times, but the (recent) near-collapse is mind-boggling.”
February 1st, 2009 at 6:14 pm
Supraboy:
But what does going to Yum Cha ( another name for ‘little eats’ or Dim Sum except the time of day it’s eaten) have to do with the state of the real estate market?
Dim Sum is a cultural thing, same as ‘no-cooking Friday’ It’s a family thing, you get the kids and the grandparents loaded into the four year old lease and it’s family time. The fact that people are going to tea is meaningless. People will always go to tea, they just order more or less depending on the economy, ask the floor managers.
The kids never notice when the parents cut back of course, they’re ( the kiddies) going ga ga stuffing thier faces with sticky rice and free cokes from the waiters.
February 1st, 2009 at 6:02 pm
Some mortgage payments fall to near zero as British Banks lower intrest rates to one percent.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/new.....tes-1.html
February 1st, 2009 at 5:51 pm
Everyone is welcome to their opinion, as long as it agrees with yours which sucks ass.
Not everyone agrees with the doom and gloom CONTINUALLY dished up here … including insulting real estate agents.
There already is censorship here and that makes this blog JUST AS BAD as any other brain dead, malodourous slavering idiot.