circlingthebowl Says:
“Now you’d think that this mall would be rocking on a Sunday afternoon in this very Chinese community with all the major anchor tenants. Just an observation but I observe some cracks appearing around the edges of your theory.
Could be if you were older you might see things a little differantly from a more critical perspective as opposed to the excitement of going to lunch with Mom and Dad.”
You went to Lansdowne, enuf said. That mall is dead regardless of when you go, boom or not.
Try going to chinese restaurants. Restaurants are the first places that you’d see the effects of a recession.
I’m not a wordpress expert, but I was going to suggest that the plugin bannage looks like it might be helpful in this situation. It doesn’t seem to help sort out who you want to ban, but at least it makes the task of maintaining a list of bans fairly easy.
As for figuring out who to ban, if you have access to any sort of standard apache logs, I’d consider banning anyone who has an unusually high number of hits on this URL:
That looks to be where the up/down ratings happen, and I’m sure some IP address has a thousand or more hits there in the last 24 hours. If you want help sifting through your logs, get in touch with me through the email address registered to my account.
I happened to at Landsdowne Mall today, which is an event I try my best to avoid. It has been about six months since I was there last and I noticed something differant, the mall parking lot and concourse WASN”T full of shoppers. It was primarily the usual suspects milling around with a large family unit in tow. No one seemed to be shopping because there were no shopping bags in hand, It looked like a typical ‘family day’ where people were just getting out of thier crowded homes on a weekend day after church.
One thing I did notice was how many blank retail spaces had opened up, whereas when I was there last I had noticed and commented on the fact that for the first time in a long time the retail holes were seemingly filled. But no more. It would seem that a peak has occured and buisness is falling off as evedenced by the fewer bodies and the increase in ( holes in the wall as we say) vacancies.
Now you’d think that this mall would be rocking on a Sunday afternoon in this very Chinese community with all the major anchor tenants. Just an observation but I observe some cracks appearing around the edges of your theory.
Could be if you were older you might see things a little differantly from a more critical perspective as opposed to the excitement of going to lunch with Mom and Dad. I have kids too, in UNI and in thier early 20′s and honestly they and thier friends are more like a bunch of puppies in a basket as opposed to fully functioning adults, funny but half-baked and easily amused in an annoying yappy reactive way, not the kind of maturity that could handle the family buisness quite yet.
Pope, I really like your work and the time you put to discipline this blog. I just want to let you know that I have been monitoring posts for the past few weeks abd I am finding that, in many cases, the threads have been going down in quality.
There seems to be a lot of incoherent posting and meaningless nagging/bitching.
I used to love this blog and the information it provided. You have all my support in taking a hard line and giving some discipline to posters. I see it as a live or die choice at this stage for the blog.
We need a good, reliable bear blog on vancouver RE. After VHB left, VHI was a good substitute. But for the past month or so, the decline of VHI has become apparent.
Please, don’t take offense, I am trying to give an objective opinion.
MrBear: I’ve just banned one IP address. This is a first, but flooding the comments section with the same message over and over is unacceptable. We’ll see if this also does away with the mass down-rating of all comments that someone was spending a lot of time doing.
Just a great quote from the article from the still stunned 25 year old
She expects more generation Y-ers to pass through her doors as the Canadian economy continues its nosedive. People in their 20s might not be worried about RRSPs or plummeting stock portfolios, but getting thrown into a faltering economy with thousands of dollars in student debts, low income jobs and no benefits is still scary.
Sitting in the seminar, I realize many of us have much in common – and not just the slightly ashamed slump in our unemployed shoulders. We seem to be looking for a more Web-savvy edge from which to leap back into the job market. We are determined to get on our feet by harnessing new media. We think we can use this program’s government-granted cash to upgrade our computer know-how. For me, it will be a career in website management and design.
But we cling to such hope despite evidence right in front of our eyes: a recent computer program graduate sitting at the table. He explains how, several months ago, diploma in hand, he went to his college administration for job-hunting help. They told him there were no jobs in his field.
Welcome to the ’70′s kids, it was really really a life changer. You’ll learn just how tough it is when Mom eventually kicks you out ‘for your own good’. Reality bites.
Reality sets in for ‘Entitlement Generation’ as recession sends then beggered back to Moms house. More Nintendo tourneys in the basement. Yah right, game on dudes. This generation will be fourty before they get back out.
I don’t think it’s a matter of people having stopped spending money on real estate , I think it’s just a typical pyramid scheme collapsing. Asking prices went way beyond every sane measure and are falling to earth like what happens after every mania. There is no value in real estate at current levels, it’s all bubble froth and no substance. Suggesting that propping up this zany realty scam isn’t going to solve the problem, most people are starting to realise that and thats why ever lower intrest rates are not attracting buyers.
Sure a lot of people are going to lose in this collapse, but these are just the spec vesters anyway who got greedy so who cares. As far as a lot of realtards having to find a new gig , whats differant about that, every time real estate craters at least 75% of realtards get bounced, so what?
And a few greedy shoddy developers who walked around like Gods are now broke and selling used cars in Surrey, so what? The bigger they are the harder they fall. Pigs get slaughtered, a story as old as the hills.
Ursus , the blog trolls and reality challenged that emerge from the wreckage of the real estate industry are an amusing aside from what I can see, no one takes them seriously.
I stumbled onto this blog without even realising that the Pope was back in business.
What a shame that it’s been hijacked by a couple of morons who can’t accept reality. After seeing all those posts in praise of Onni, could it be possible that the De Cotiis mob has weighed in?
With some involvement in condo construction, I can asure you that the quality of Onni buildings is not exactly enviable. They are in fact sometimes referred to as the scum of the industry by other contractors.
Fed Reserve Fails to Reflate the US Banking System
For decades central banks set monetary policy according to nonsensical beliefs about credit expansion. The inability of the Fed to stop the current crisis via emergency lending to banks demonstrates that Fed policies are a failure.
“She was aware of the economic turmoil,” says Ms. Lewis. “I tried to sit her down and explain it could take a long time.”
So, after Ms. Lewis warned Ms. Ivens that the house might take as long as three months to sell, the Victorian semi-detached on Brunswick Avenue hit the market on a Friday with an asking price of $464,000. By Monday morning, offers had started rolling in. Later that evening, Ms. Ivens had received seven bids and sold the house for $492,000.
=============
QUOTE:
Joanne Gludish of Royal LePage Real Estate Services recently sold a house near Kipling and Eglinton for 112 per cent of asking after the house was on the market for one week.
The house was listed for $324,900 and sold for $365,000. More than 50 parties toured the three-level backsplit, which Ms. Gludish was aiming at first-time buyers in her marketing.
================
Back on Brunswick, Mr. Freeman listed a detached house in December for $559,000 and was surprised when it sold for $611,000 after seven days on the market.
The house did not show well, he says, because the same owner had lived there for 60 years and accumulated a lot of belongings.
But in the spring of 2008, the semi next door, with no parking, sold for about $900,000.
Mr. Freeman says the house listed for $559,000 had more than 100 people looking at it despite the fact that he didn’t set up a website for it or have interior photos taken.
“There are buyers out there,” he says.
He says bidders figured they could pay about $600,000 for it, invest $150,000 or $200,000 in fixing it up and still feel that they were ahead of the game compared with the high price paid for the renovated semi in the spring.
“It attracted amazing attention,” says Mr. Freeman.
=========
Some commentators on these stories are saying that the Realtors are now in low -ball listing mode..literally telling sellers to go looooooow or they won’t list.
Then they seem to create a bidding frenzy ala on par with pre-sale condo line-up and bidding wars start. Then they can claim “sold for X % over list price , when “list” was low-balled to start.
Methinks Darwinism is kicking in…the last gasp to draw in the suckers at the edge of the black hole.
Interest rates are at historic lows and that means value is really increasing.
This is true if you compare with say 1980′s (for now at least). But they actually haven’t fallen much in real terms since last year. If there is deflation, it is possible that real rates could jump to 1980′s level. In other words, maybe your mortgage payment is low, but prices of everything else are falling in relation to your mortgage payment so for all intents and purposes your payments are high. The other nasty effect of deflation is increased unemployment.
Remember, there is a reason why governments around the world intervening to provide huge stimulus packages and going into deficit.
Van-zee: “Wholly fuck this blog has jumped the shark.
Pull the plug Pope.”
Yeah, this is a pretty ugly thread again. Someone is spending a serious amount of time pushing up and down arrows, but I bet it is one or at most two people. Is there no wordpress plugin that would allow a little analysis and banning by IP address? It would be a shame to pull the plug when there is some really good discussion that happens here at times.
Financial markets are particularly susceptible to manias, panics and crashes, where asset prices rise to extraordinary heights only for confidence and greed to turn to fear and despair, sending the market into freefall. One of the first analysts of these phenomena was Walter Bagehot, nineteenth century editor of The Economist. His 1873 book, Lombard Street, is a powerful account of the psychology of financial markets: how investors overdose on hope and then despair, and how central banking may, to some degree, restrain self-destructive cycles of elation and panic.
Many of the classic stories of market mayhem are told in Charles Mackay’s Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, written in the 1840s. This study of crowd psychology and mass mania through the ages includes accounts of numerous market scams, madnesses and deceptions, notably the Mississippi Scheme that swept France in 1720; the South Sea Bubble that ruined thousands in England at the same time; and the Dutch tulipmania, when fortunes were made and lost on single tulip bulbs.
More recent histories of these extraordinary events include Martin Fridson’s It Was a Very Good Year and Manias, Panics and Crashes by economist Charles Kindleberger. Kindleberger argues that there is a consistent pattern to financial manias and panics – quite apart from the ebb and flow of the business cycle – which can be controlled or moderated. He spells out the stages of the credit cycle of boom and bust:
· The upswing usually starts with an opportunity – new markets, new technologies or some dramatic political change – and investors looking for good returns.
· It proceeds through the euphoria of rising prices, particularly of assets, while an expansion of credit inflates the bubble.
· In the manic phase, investors scramble to get out of money and into illiquid things such as stocks, commodities, real estate or tulip bulbs: ‘a larger and larger group of people seeks to become rich without a real understanding of the processes involved’.
· Ultimately, the markets stop rising and people who have borrowed heavily find themselves overstretched. This is ‘distress’, which generates unexpected failures, followed by ‘revulsion’ or ‘discredit’.
· The final phase is a self-feeding panic, where the bubble bursts. People of wealth and credit scramble to unload whatever they have bought at greater and greater losses, and cash becomes king.
=========================
Funny how the denialists and trolls seem to have all skipped History class.
“Lenin was certainly right, there is no more positive, or subtle or surer means of destroying the basis of society than to debauch the currency.
By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of the citizens
The process engages all of the hidden forces of economics on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner that not one man in a million can diagnose.”
geezer’s getting desperate. This is his comment to the National Post article re: job losses.
Geezer71 said:
“I am just as succeptible to losing my job as anyone but, now is not the time for everyone to get in the bomb shelters and be afraid. We need the same message that came out after the 9/11 attacks. It was kind of peculiar at the time, but “keep spending” is the message that will get the economic train back on track. If we stop spending, the recession wins.” (Or, in other words, I lose my fuc*ing shirt cause I bought way too many Vancouver presale condos!)
Duh. Me cut em and past em. Me sooooo smart. Pat Me Bum.
Me have NO LIFE so I sit on my phat ASS all day, every day,
======
Sorry dude.
Not interested in proof reading your resume’ .
BTW :
THE FLO is sold out, isn’t it?
Can’t ONNI count higher than ” 0 ” ?
Re: Condos….wouldn’t touch ‘em.
Toxic liability ridden investment for the foreseeable future.
An “Honest realtor” would steer clients away from them , which means about 95 % of the Realtors will try to flog them to suckers.
New mantra will soon be:
If it Flies, FLO-ats or F*$ks (or has a strata) … RENT IT !!!!
Remind me how many ‘realtards’ have bailed this year, are you next? Is that what’s got you so worried? And isn’t it time to be setting up for ‘Open House”? Whats wrong, turd, got no listings? A realtard with nowhere to go but a blog site when theres so much money to be made, how telling. Get lost you lieing piece of crap.
Duh. Me cut em and past em. Me sooooo smart. Pat Me Bum.
Me have NO LIFE so I sit on my phat ASS all day, every day, slagging honest realtors who are actually making money and doing something with their lives.
It seems that all the bad reviews have been generated by one blog troll, thats you, asshole. Some people who don’t have a lot of time during the week want the condensed truth and appreciate the people who spend thier own valuable time compling and posting real facts and interesting data for people like myself with little time to spare. Your shitty little rant under your various pseudonyms is just a pain in the ass. Basically, you’re a dumb cunt and a waste of space.
Body count is going parabolic in Canada. TD economist is very negative.
It will be cold comfort to Canadians, but analysts are projecting the relative job losses in Canada’s main export market will be an even greater 525,000 to as many as 600,000.
That would push the losses since the U.S. economy went into recession a year ago, to more than three million, and surpass the losses in the mild U.S. downturn in 2001. They also expect the job losses to boost the unemployment rate there to as much as 7.6%.
“After 12 straight months of job losses, and five consecutive months of triple-digit declines, investors will not be shocked to see the non-farm payroll report ring in the new year with another 500,000 plus of additional pink slips,” said Meny Grauman, another CIBC World Markets economist. “We are a full year into the latest U.S. recession, and the outlook for the labour market remains as dire as ever.”
TD, again, is even more pessimistic, projecting 600,000 jobs were lost in January.
Yeah …Warren Buffet said much the same…called it as when the tide went out , all this BS was exposed as the nude beach it always was. 3 piece suits involved in Ponzi schemes using Fiat money , really was nothing there when the shite hit the fan.
Lets go hide in a cave where we can pat each others’ fuzzy little bums whilst agreeing how smart we are.
What a load of pessimistic and drooling dopes. Search google and be the first to repost something bad to slather over … get a life youse pathetic simians. The sun will come up tomorrow and there will be some GREAT condo deals at SUPER prices in the lower mainland.
The douchebag bankers at Caisse had something in common with the local realtards; that is ‘even turkeys can fly in a hurricane’. When the market momentum didn’t support them anymore thier basic ignorance and general incompetance was exposed.
StatsCan releases jobloss numbers this coming Friday. They say 40,000, but if you’ve been following the country wide news releases by the individual companies layoff notices and industry wide public information circulars ( public information available on the net BTW) the numbers will have to be ‘revised up’ to at least triple that. They will issue a ‘revised number’ within one to two weeks after the government grinds as much political mileage through thier bumboys in the media as they can out of the phony numbers.
Almost no one came through the October market meltdown unscathed. But few endured the debacle that hit the Caisse. Somehow, its vaunted risk management practices had led it into a danger zone no pension fund is ever supposed enter: It ran out of cash.
QUOTE:
No one, however, could imagine Teachers running out of cash. But that is what happened to the Caisse in October of last year. Caught by a wrong-way bet on the Canadian dollar and margin calls on futures contracts, the Caisse – hamstrung by its excessive exposure to its ABCP, which had become completely illiquid – was grappling with a cash shortage. As rumours of the liquidity crisis spread, outsiders watched dumbfounded as the mighty Caisse cowered.
The statistical models, it turned out, had a fatal flaw. Using data series going back only a few years – a period of low volatility in asset prices – they failed to capture the risk of a market meltdown. Portfolio managers who relied on the models had developed a false sense of security as they sought out riskier, unconventional investments – ones without proven track records – in a bid to squeeze out ever higher returns. No one, it seemed, believed the models could be wrong.
The Caisse depended on the mathematical models when it bet so heavily on ABCP. But the models underestimated liquidity risks – the probability the Caisse would be unable to cash in its ABCP when it came due.
That is what happened in the summer of 2007 when investors became concerned about some of the assets behind the paper, such as shaky subprime mortgages and credit default swaps, risky derivatives whose holders bet on the likelihood a debtor will default. Those concerns prevented issuers of non-bank ABCP from selling new paper to pay back existing holders, the biggest of which by far was the Caisse.
Few imagined then just how vulnerable the ABCP exposure could leave the Caisse. But as markets tanked in October, 2008, it became clear that the commercial paper debacle could no longer be considered in isolation. With the toxic paper frozen, the Caisse was forced to liquidate other assets to meet margin calls on its huge position in foreign stock index futures.
In good times, ABCP and index futures produced higher yields than conventional debt instruments and stocks. But as October came around, it became clear that the unconventional investments also produced magnified losses in bad times. Unlike stocks and bonds, futures, for instance, are highly leveraged, so investors can lose much more than their initial investment.
Over the years, the Caisse had been ramping up its position in foreign index futures. By the end of 2007, its holdings tied to the relatively new derivatives had grown to 9.4 per cent of assets, worth $14.6-billion, from 3.4 per cent of assets in 1999.
==================
Interesting points from this article inlcude fund managers trying to keep pension funds topped up, given the demographics show aging population and declining birthrate.
Besides the RE meltdown, these rather dubious moves by Fund managers somewhat related to the RE market are impacting the other future plans of many in a variety of ways. Even the alleged rocket scientists bought and drank the same kool aid, particularly these sophisiticated investment vehicles , and all -the -while ignoring the treat of the “black swans”.
I think it was realpaul who said ” In the recession of the 80′s you could fire a cannon down Robson street and not worry about hitting any one” that seems to happening again as more service and peripheral buisnesses begin to feel the squeeze.
Agreed, SuperRealtor is the troll-o-the-week, probably not even a realtor, if so one with too much spare time and no sales. Sucks to be him either way.
The article I pulled that section out of mentioned something about the GB banks inabilty to refinance at sub zero equity. Apparently the bank law is similar in Britian as it is in Canada. The leverage issue in GB is a big problem I guess with many people taking out big financing with little down and seeing all the equity vanish and then some. The article also mentions the fact that these were ‘council’ flats ( or apartments which had once been social subsidized housing and converted to freehold) which were purchased by tenants who were marginal income earners to begin with.
If I can relocate the full article I’ll post it for you for clarification.
NO -LYMPICS: Relating that to BC , it would be at least 10 miles out from Vancouver to acheive similar price( assuming parity with US dollar).
Pricing is similar to North Delta for comparable lot and house size. But Jericho is a lot more upscale than Nordel. More like North Vancouver.
You can also get to Manhatten in 43 minutes from the LIRR station in nearby Hicksville, just a bit longer than the trip downtown from Nordel via Skytrain I think. But metro New York has over 8 times the population of Metro Vancouver, so in relative terms it is a lot closer in.
February 1st, 2009 at 5:40 pm
circlingthebowl Says:
“Now you’d think that this mall would be rocking on a Sunday afternoon in this very Chinese community with all the major anchor tenants. Just an observation but I observe some cracks appearing around the edges of your theory.
Could be if you were older you might see things a little differantly from a more critical perspective as opposed to the excitement of going to lunch with Mom and Dad.”
You went to Lansdowne, enuf said. That mall is dead regardless of when you go, boom or not.
Try going to chinese restaurants. Restaurants are the first places that you’d see the effects of a recession.
February 1st, 2009 at 5:19 pm
The Pope: Thanks, lets hope it works!
I’m not a wordpress expert, but I was going to suggest that the plugin bannage looks like it might be helpful in this situation. It doesn’t seem to help sort out who you want to ban, but at least it makes the task of maintaining a list of bans fairly easy.
As for figuring out who to ban, if you have access to any sort of standard apache logs, I’d consider banning anyone who has an unusually high number of hits on this URL:
http://vancouvercondo.info/wp-.....ckarma.php
That looks to be where the up/down ratings happen, and I’m sure some IP address has a thousand or more hits there in the last 24 hours. If you want help sifting through your logs, get in touch with me through the email address registered to my account.
February 1st, 2009 at 5:16 pm
Supraboy:
I happened to at Landsdowne Mall today, which is an event I try my best to avoid. It has been about six months since I was there last and I noticed something differant, the mall parking lot and concourse WASN”T full of shoppers. It was primarily the usual suspects milling around with a large family unit in tow. No one seemed to be shopping because there were no shopping bags in hand, It looked like a typical ‘family day’ where people were just getting out of thier crowded homes on a weekend day after church.
One thing I did notice was how many blank retail spaces had opened up, whereas when I was there last I had noticed and commented on the fact that for the first time in a long time the retail holes were seemingly filled. But no more. It would seem that a peak has occured and buisness is falling off as evedenced by the fewer bodies and the increase in ( holes in the wall as we say) vacancies.
Now you’d think that this mall would be rocking on a Sunday afternoon in this very Chinese community with all the major anchor tenants. Just an observation but I observe some cracks appearing around the edges of your theory.
Could be if you were older you might see things a little differantly from a more critical perspective as opposed to the excitement of going to lunch with Mom and Dad. I have kids too, in UNI and in thier early 20′s and honestly they and thier friends are more like a bunch of puppies in a basket as opposed to fully functioning adults, funny but half-baked and easily amused in an annoying yappy reactive way, not the kind of maturity that could handle the family buisness quite yet.
February 1st, 2009 at 5:08 pm
Pope, I really like your work and the time you put to discipline this blog. I just want to let you know that I have been monitoring posts for the past few weeks abd I am finding that, in many cases, the threads have been going down in quality.
There seems to be a lot of incoherent posting and meaningless nagging/bitching.
I used to love this blog and the information it provided. You have all my support in taking a hard line and giving some discipline to posters. I see it as a live or die choice at this stage for the blog.
We need a good, reliable bear blog on vancouver RE. After VHB left, VHI was a good substitute. But for the past month or so, the decline of VHI has become apparent.
Please, don’t take offense, I am trying to give an objective opinion.
February 1st, 2009 at 4:37 pm
MrBear: I’ve just banned one IP address. This is a first, but flooding the comments section with the same message over and over is unacceptable. We’ll see if this also does away with the mass down-rating of all comments that someone was spending a lot of time doing.
February 1st, 2009 at 3:20 pm
Just a great quote from the article from the still stunned 25 year old
She expects more generation Y-ers to pass through her doors as the Canadian economy continues its nosedive. People in their 20s might not be worried about RRSPs or plummeting stock portfolios, but getting thrown into a faltering economy with thousands of dollars in student debts, low income jobs and no benefits is still scary.
Sitting in the seminar, I realize many of us have much in common – and not just the slightly ashamed slump in our unemployed shoulders. We seem to be looking for a more Web-savvy edge from which to leap back into the job market. We are determined to get on our feet by harnessing new media. We think we can use this program’s government-granted cash to upgrade our computer know-how. For me, it will be a career in website management and design.
But we cling to such hope despite evidence right in front of our eyes: a recent computer program graduate sitting at the table. He explains how, several months ago, diploma in hand, he went to his college administration for job-hunting help. They told him there were no jobs in his field.
Welcome to the ’70′s kids, it was really really a life changer. You’ll learn just how tough it is when Mom eventually kicks you out ‘for your own good’. Reality bites.
February 1st, 2009 at 3:13 pm
Reality sets in for ‘Entitlement Generation’ as recession sends then beggered back to Moms house. More Nintendo tourneys in the basement. Yah right, game on dudes. This generation will be fourty before they get back out.
http://www.thestar.com/living/article/578228
February 1st, 2009 at 3:06 pm
AOL announces 700 layoffs late Friday
http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....ology/home
February 1st, 2009 at 2:58 pm
Pooperrealtor:
I don’t think it’s a matter of people having stopped spending money on real estate , I think it’s just a typical pyramid scheme collapsing. Asking prices went way beyond every sane measure and are falling to earth like what happens after every mania. There is no value in real estate at current levels, it’s all bubble froth and no substance. Suggesting that propping up this zany realty scam isn’t going to solve the problem, most people are starting to realise that and thats why ever lower intrest rates are not attracting buyers.
Sure a lot of people are going to lose in this collapse, but these are just the spec vesters anyway who got greedy so who cares. As far as a lot of realtards having to find a new gig , whats differant about that, every time real estate craters at least 75% of realtards get bounced, so what?
And a few greedy shoddy developers who walked around like Gods are now broke and selling used cars in Surrey, so what? The bigger they are the harder they fall. Pigs get slaughtered, a story as old as the hills.
February 1st, 2009 at 2:47 pm
Quote from the Globe and Mail buisness section today
the picture that emerges is grim, with unemployment rising eventually to 13 per cent and staying high for a year or two
http://business.theglobeandmai.....ents2/home
Ursus , the blog trolls and reality challenged that emerge from the wreckage of the real estate industry are an amusing aside from what I can see, no one takes them seriously.
February 1st, 2009 at 2:30 pm
I stumbled onto this blog without even realising that the Pope was back in business.
What a shame that it’s been hijacked by a couple of morons who can’t accept reality. After seeing all those posts in praise of Onni, could it be possible that the De Cotiis mob has weighed in?
With some involvement in condo construction, I can asure you that the quality of Onni buildings is not exactly enviable. They are in fact sometimes referred to as the scum of the industry by other contractors.
February 1st, 2009 at 2:14 pm
Fed Reserve Fails to Reflate the US Banking System
For decades central banks set monetary policy according to nonsensical beliefs about credit expansion. The inability of the Fed to stop the current crisis via emergency lending to banks demonstrates that Fed policies are a failure.
This movie reveals the scale of this disaster.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v.....gspot.com/
February 1st, 2009 at 2:04 pm
An outburst of action in an idle market
Detached house in Toronto listed for $559,000, sells for $611,000 in January
http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....nswick0130
QUOTE:
“She was aware of the economic turmoil,” says Ms. Lewis. “I tried to sit her down and explain it could take a long time.”
So, after Ms. Lewis warned Ms. Ivens that the house might take as long as three months to sell, the Victorian semi-detached on Brunswick Avenue hit the market on a Friday with an asking price of $464,000. By Monday morning, offers had started rolling in. Later that evening, Ms. Ivens had received seven bids and sold the house for $492,000.
=============
QUOTE:
Joanne Gludish of Royal LePage Real Estate Services recently sold a house near Kipling and Eglinton for 112 per cent of asking after the house was on the market for one week.
The house was listed for $324,900 and sold for $365,000. More than 50 parties toured the three-level backsplit, which Ms. Gludish was aiming at first-time buyers in her marketing.
================
Back on Brunswick, Mr. Freeman listed a detached house in December for $559,000 and was surprised when it sold for $611,000 after seven days on the market.
The house did not show well, he says, because the same owner had lived there for 60 years and accumulated a lot of belongings.
But in the spring of 2008, the semi next door, with no parking, sold for about $900,000.
Mr. Freeman says the house listed for $559,000 had more than 100 people looking at it despite the fact that he didn’t set up a website for it or have interior photos taken.
“There are buyers out there,” he says.
He says bidders figured they could pay about $600,000 for it, invest $150,000 or $200,000 in fixing it up and still feel that they were ahead of the game compared with the high price paid for the renovated semi in the spring.
“It attracted amazing attention,” says Mr. Freeman.
=========
Some commentators on these stories are saying that the Realtors are now in low -ball listing mode..literally telling sellers to go looooooow or they won’t list.
Then they seem to create a bidding frenzy ala on par with pre-sale condo line-up and bidding wars start. Then they can claim “sold for X % over list price , when “list” was low-balled to start.
Methinks Darwinism is kicking in…the last gasp to draw in the suckers at the edge of the black hole.
February 1st, 2009 at 2:00 pm
Interest rates are at historic lows and that means value is really increasing.
This is true if you compare with say 1980′s (for now at least). But they actually haven’t fallen much in real terms since last year. If there is deflation, it is possible that real rates could jump to 1980′s level. In other words, maybe your mortgage payment is low, but prices of everything else are falling in relation to your mortgage payment so for all intents and purposes your payments are high. The other nasty effect of deflation is increased unemployment.
Remember, there is a reason why governments around the world intervening to provide huge stimulus packages and going into deficit.
February 1st, 2009 at 1:27 pm
Van-zee: “Wholly fuck this blog has jumped the shark.
Pull the plug Pope.”
Yeah, this is a pretty ugly thread again. Someone is spending a serious amount of time pushing up and down arrows, but I bet it is one or at most two people. Is there no wordpress plugin that would allow a little analysis and banning by IP address? It would be a shame to pull the plug when there is some really good discussion that happens here at times.
February 1st, 2009 at 1:21 pm
Manias, Panics and Crashes
http://www.deanlebaron.com/boo.....mania.html
Financial markets are particularly susceptible to manias, panics and crashes, where asset prices rise to extraordinary heights only for confidence and greed to turn to fear and despair, sending the market into freefall. One of the first analysts of these phenomena was Walter Bagehot, nineteenth century editor of The Economist. His 1873 book, Lombard Street, is a powerful account of the psychology of financial markets: how investors overdose on hope and then despair, and how central banking may, to some degree, restrain self-destructive cycles of elation and panic.
Many of the classic stories of market mayhem are told in Charles Mackay’s Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, written in the 1840s. This study of crowd psychology and mass mania through the ages includes accounts of numerous market scams, madnesses and deceptions, notably the Mississippi Scheme that swept France in 1720; the South Sea Bubble that ruined thousands in England at the same time; and the Dutch tulipmania, when fortunes were made and lost on single tulip bulbs.
More recent histories of these extraordinary events include Martin Fridson’s It Was a Very Good Year and Manias, Panics and Crashes by economist Charles Kindleberger. Kindleberger argues that there is a consistent pattern to financial manias and panics – quite apart from the ebb and flow of the business cycle – which can be controlled or moderated. He spells out the stages of the credit cycle of boom and bust:
· The upswing usually starts with an opportunity – new markets, new technologies or some dramatic political change – and investors looking for good returns.
· It proceeds through the euphoria of rising prices, particularly of assets, while an expansion of credit inflates the bubble.
· In the manic phase, investors scramble to get out of money and into illiquid things such as stocks, commodities, real estate or tulip bulbs: ‘a larger and larger group of people seeks to become rich without a real understanding of the processes involved’.
· Ultimately, the markets stop rising and people who have borrowed heavily find themselves overstretched. This is ‘distress’, which generates unexpected failures, followed by ‘revulsion’ or ‘discredit’.
· The final phase is a self-feeding panic, where the bubble bursts. People of wealth and credit scramble to unload whatever they have bought at greater and greater losses, and cash becomes king.
=========================
Funny how the denialists and trolls seem to have all skipped History class.
February 1st, 2009 at 1:13 pm
Speaking of 9/11
(and not trying to piss of Van-Zee)
It may be prudent to “keep a few staples” around…
If you recall….several months ago there was that spike re: a rise in food prices , as well as supply shortages.
If there is turmoil elsewhere, there could be major shortages of food we take for granted.
Canned goods, pastas, non- perishables, bottled water…etc. etc.
A simple pack of matches may be worth its weight in gold.
February 1st, 2009 at 1:03 pm
“Lenin was certainly right, there is no more positive, or subtle or surer means of destroying the basis of society than to debauch the currency.
By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of the citizens
The process engages all of the hidden forces of economics on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner that not one man in a million can diagnose.”
– John Maynard Keynes
February 1st, 2009 at 12:51 pm
Wholly fuck this blog has jumped the shark.
Pull the plug Pope.
February 1st, 2009 at 12:49 pm
geezer’s getting desperate. This is his comment to the National Post article re: job losses.
Geezer71 said:
“I am just as succeptible to losing my job as anyone but, now is not the time for everyone to get in the bomb shelters and be afraid. We need the same message that came out after the 9/11 attacks. It was kind of peculiar at the time, but “keep spending” is the message that will get the economic train back on track. If we stop spending, the recession wins.” (Or, in other words, I lose my fuc*ing shirt cause I bought way too many Vancouver presale condos!)
February 1st, 2009 at 12:48 pm
226 Dope-LYMPICS Says:
Duh. Me cut em and past em. Me sooooo smart. Pat Me Bum.
Me have NO LIFE so I sit on my phat ASS all day, every day,
======
Sorry dude.
Not interested in proof reading your resume’ .
BTW :
THE FLO is sold out, isn’t it?
Can’t ONNI count higher than ” 0 ” ?
Re: Condos….wouldn’t touch ‘em.
Toxic liability ridden investment for the foreseeable future.
An “Honest realtor” would steer clients away from them , which means about 95 % of the Realtors will try to flog them to suckers.
New mantra will soon be:
If it Flies, FLO-ats or F*$ks (or has a strata) … RENT IT !!!!
February 1st, 2009 at 12:40 pm
Dope-LYMPICS:
Remind me how many ‘realtards’ have bailed this year, are you next? Is that what’s got you so worried? And isn’t it time to be setting up for ‘Open House”? Whats wrong, turd, got no listings? A realtard with nowhere to go but a blog site when theres so much money to be made, how telling. Get lost you lieing piece of crap.
February 1st, 2009 at 12:36 pm
Rioting in Russia over failing economy. Violence around the world keeps growing as poverty spreads and unemployment numbers surge.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/new.....onomy.html
February 1st, 2009 at 12:35 pm
Duh. Me cut em and past em. Me sooooo smart. Pat Me Bum.
Me have NO LIFE so I sit on my phat ASS all day, every day, slagging honest realtors who are actually making money and doing something with their lives.
AWESOME DEALS on FLO condos. UP TO 40% OFF !!!!
February 1st, 2009 at 12:32 pm
President Obama says recovery will take years not months.
http://www.reuters.com/article.....31?sp=true
February 1st, 2009 at 12:29 pm
Dope-LYMPICS:
It seems that all the bad reviews have been generated by one blog troll, thats you, asshole. Some people who don’t have a lot of time during the week want the condensed truth and appreciate the people who spend thier own valuable time compling and posting real facts and interesting data for people like myself with little time to spare. Your shitty little rant under your various pseudonyms is just a pain in the ass. Basically, you’re a dumb cunt and a waste of space.
February 1st, 2009 at 12:27 pm
222 Dope-LYMPICS Says
(???)
The mark of the Beast, as in REvelations
” REBGV and its 666 Realturds ”
========
Mission Control:
A few more posts by these trolls and we can triangulate their positions. Ignore AVTAR BAINS .
10-4
February 1st, 2009 at 12:17 pm
Do you actually HAVE a life?
Get off yer lazy good for nothing ass and find some GREAT DEALS on Vancouver CONDOS !!!!
Look at your reviews. Terrible. Get a hobby.
February 1st, 2009 at 12:14 pm
213 DisgustingLittleWomen Says:
February 1st, 2009 at 11:58 am
The sky is FALLING!!! Ohhhhh!! Ahhhhh!
=======================
DisgustingLittleWomen Identiity revealed !!
http://www.beyondrobson.com/ci.....aye_leung/
BTW :
Whats with the ” Ohhhhh!! Ahhhhh!” ???
Quit playing with yourself on Sunday !!!..have some respect for the Sabbath !
February 1st, 2009 at 12:09 pm
here
http://www.nationalpost.com/ne.....id=1236604
February 1st, 2009 at 12:09 pm
depressionwatch:
read whole article
February 1st, 2009 at 12:07 pm
Body count is going parabolic in Canada. TD economist is very negative.
It will be cold comfort to Canadians, but analysts are projecting the relative job losses in Canada’s main export market will be an even greater 525,000 to as many as 600,000.
That would push the losses since the U.S. economy went into recession a year ago, to more than three million, and surpass the losses in the mild U.S. downturn in 2001. They also expect the job losses to boost the unemployment rate there to as much as 7.6%.
“After 12 straight months of job losses, and five consecutive months of triple-digit declines, investors will not be shocked to see the non-farm payroll report ring in the new year with another 500,000 plus of additional pink slips,” said Meny Grauman, another CIBC World Markets economist. “We are a full year into the latest U.S. recession, and the outlook for the labour market remains as dire as ever.”
TD, again, is even more pessimistic, projecting 600,000 jobs were lost in January.
February 1st, 2009 at 12:07 pm
Gasbag
Yeah …Warren Buffet said much the same…called it as when the tide went out , all this BS was exposed as the nude beach it always was. 3 piece suits involved in Ponzi schemes using Fiat money , really was nothing there when the shite hit the fan.
You couldn’t write better fiction.
February 1st, 2009 at 12:04 pm
DisgustingLittleWomen:
It’s more likely that it’s your prospects, finances and ‘career’ that is falling.
February 1st, 2009 at 12:02 pm
Canada’s recesiion could be worse than US says chief economist today in National Post. Contraction could exceed 5%, far more than previous recession.
http://www.nationalpost.com/ne.....id=1235115
February 1st, 2009 at 11:59 am
job losses to continue in mass lay offs by major industries says Government
http://www.nationalpost.com/ne.....id=1241831
February 1st, 2009 at 11:58 am
The sky is FALLING!!! Ohhhhh!! Ahhhhh!
Lets go hide in a cave where we can pat each others’ fuzzy little bums whilst agreeing how smart we are.
What a load of pessimistic and drooling dopes. Search google and be the first to repost something bad to slather over … get a life youse pathetic simians. The sun will come up tomorrow and there will be some GREAT condo deals at SUPER prices in the lower mainland.
FANTASTIC !!!
February 1st, 2009 at 11:56 am
6000 more layoffs to be announced Thursday at Glaxo
http://www.globeinvestor.com/s.....E/GIStory/
February 1st, 2009 at 11:52 am
NO -LYMPICS:
The douchebag bankers at Caisse had something in common with the local realtards; that is ‘even turkeys can fly in a hurricane’. When the market momentum didn’t support them anymore thier basic ignorance and general incompetance was exposed.
February 1st, 2009 at 11:49 am
StatsCan releases jobloss numbers this coming Friday. They say 40,000, but if you’ve been following the country wide news releases by the individual companies layoff notices and industry wide public information circulars ( public information available on the net BTW) the numbers will have to be ‘revised up’ to at least triple that. They will issue a ‘revised number’ within one to two weeks after the government grinds as much political mileage through thier bumboys in the media as they can out of the phony numbers.
http://www.globeinvestor.com/s.....0/GIStory/
February 1st, 2009 at 11:45 am
How Caisse’s bet on quants went wrong
http://marketpipeline.blogspot.....wrong.html
QUOTE:
Almost no one came through the October market meltdown unscathed. But few endured the debacle that hit the Caisse. Somehow, its vaunted risk management practices had led it into a danger zone no pension fund is ever supposed enter: It ran out of cash.
QUOTE:
No one, however, could imagine Teachers running out of cash. But that is what happened to the Caisse in October of last year. Caught by a wrong-way bet on the Canadian dollar and margin calls on futures contracts, the Caisse – hamstrung by its excessive exposure to its ABCP, which had become completely illiquid – was grappling with a cash shortage. As rumours of the liquidity crisis spread, outsiders watched dumbfounded as the mighty Caisse cowered.
The statistical models, it turned out, had a fatal flaw. Using data series going back only a few years – a period of low volatility in asset prices – they failed to capture the risk of a market meltdown. Portfolio managers who relied on the models had developed a false sense of security as they sought out riskier, unconventional investments – ones without proven track records – in a bid to squeeze out ever higher returns. No one, it seemed, believed the models could be wrong.
The Caisse depended on the mathematical models when it bet so heavily on ABCP. But the models underestimated liquidity risks – the probability the Caisse would be unable to cash in its ABCP when it came due.
That is what happened in the summer of 2007 when investors became concerned about some of the assets behind the paper, such as shaky subprime mortgages and credit default swaps, risky derivatives whose holders bet on the likelihood a debtor will default. Those concerns prevented issuers of non-bank ABCP from selling new paper to pay back existing holders, the biggest of which by far was the Caisse.
Few imagined then just how vulnerable the ABCP exposure could leave the Caisse. But as markets tanked in October, 2008, it became clear that the commercial paper debacle could no longer be considered in isolation. With the toxic paper frozen, the Caisse was forced to liquidate other assets to meet margin calls on its huge position in foreign stock index futures.
In good times, ABCP and index futures produced higher yields than conventional debt instruments and stocks. But as October came around, it became clear that the unconventional investments also produced magnified losses in bad times. Unlike stocks and bonds, futures, for instance, are highly leveraged, so investors can lose much more than their initial investment.
Over the years, the Caisse had been ramping up its position in foreign index futures. By the end of 2007, its holdings tied to the relatively new derivatives had grown to 9.4 per cent of assets, worth $14.6-billion, from 3.4 per cent of assets in 1999.
==================
Interesting points from this article inlcude fund managers trying to keep pension funds topped up, given the demographics show aging population and declining birthrate.
Besides the RE meltdown, these rather dubious moves by Fund managers somewhat related to the RE market are impacting the other future plans of many in a variety of ways. Even the alleged rocket scientists bought and drank the same kool aid, particularly these sophisiticated investment vehicles , and all -the -while ignoring the treat of the “black swans”.
February 1st, 2009 at 11:40 am
double post, the site was slow I guess, scuse moi
February 1st, 2009 at 11:40 am
Unusual for so many sectors to fail simultaneously say s Globe
http://www.globeinvestor.com/s.....0/GIStory/
February 1st, 2009 at 11:38 am
I think it was realpaul who said ” In the recession of the 80′s you could fire a cannon down Robson street and not worry about hitting any one” that seems to happening again as more service and peripheral buisnesses begin to feel the squeeze.
http://www.globeinvestor.com/s.....1/GIStory/
Recession spreads to Canada’s storefronts
http://www.globeinvestor.com/s.....0/GIStory/
http://www.globeinvestor.com/s.....0/GIStory/
February 1st, 2009 at 11:37 am
SuperRealtor is 100% pure right.
Look at historically low interest rates and even a stump can see that value is increasing.
There are AWESOME opportunities for buyers for BRAND NEW condos. UNBELIEVABLE!!!
February 1st, 2009 at 11:27 am
Agreed, SuperRealtor is the troll-o-the-week, probably not even a realtor, if so one with too much spare time and no sales. Sucks to be him either way.
February 1st, 2009 at 10:59 am
kingroland:
Read the real estate section of the “South China Morning Post”.
February 1st, 2009 at 10:54 am
patriotz:
The article I pulled that section out of mentioned something about the GB banks inabilty to refinance at sub zero equity. Apparently the bank law is similar in Britian as it is in Canada. The leverage issue in GB is a big problem I guess with many people taking out big financing with little down and seeing all the equity vanish and then some. The article also mentions the fact that these were ‘council’ flats ( or apartments which had once been social subsidized housing and converted to freehold) which were purchased by tenants who were marginal income earners to begin with.
If I can relocate the full article I’ll post it for you for clarification.
February 1st, 2009 at 10:51 am
NO -LYMPICS:
Relating that to BC , it would be at least 10 miles out from Vancouver to acheive similar price( assuming parity with US dollar).
Pricing is similar to North Delta for comparable lot and house size. But Jericho is a lot more upscale than Nordel. More like North Vancouver.
You can also get to Manhatten in 43 minutes from the LIRR station in nearby Hicksville, just a bit longer than the trip downtown from Nordel via Skytrain I think. But metro New York has over 8 times the population of Metro Vancouver, so in relative terms it is a lot closer in.
http://www.mls.ca/PropertyDeta.....ID=7628440
February 1st, 2009 at 10:35 am
AWESOME OPPORTUNITIES !!!
Perfect time to examine quality Onni condos at FLO at up 40% DISCOUNTS !!!