How much will the Olympic Village cost you?
richard1 just posted a link to this column in yesterdays Vancouver Sun: Olympic Village finances getting scary for taxpayers:
Thinking it couldn’t lose in the real-estate big leagues, a few years ago the City of Vancouver guaranteed the world it could build the Olympic Village for 2010 — and even make a profit. Now the global financial crisis has turned a supposedly sure thing into a high-stakes gamble.
The dilemma is the local condo market has turned. The Olympic condo units, which were supposed to be occupied by athletes during the Games and then turned over to new owners, are probably worth 10-to-20-per-cent less than initially expected.
Even worse, the prospect of fast sales — most were expected to sell by 2010 — has evaporated. If they don’t want to sell at fire-sale prices, city officials now realize sales will probably need to be delayed until the market rebounds, whenever that might be.
Are those that guaranteed these loans with taxpayer dollars really suprised by the turn in the real estate market? Sure the economy is going through a rough patch, but it doesn’t take a global economic downturn for the ‘Olympic Curse‘ to end up costing a host city plenty. Beijing’s slide can be blamed on recession, but Sydney and Athens happened at a time of global economic expansion and still got hit by the post games slump.
Are you ready to pay off your share of the party bill?
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 11:28 am
There is a saying about separating Church and State.
This saying has often been misconstrued.
It was not to imply that the Church influences the state, but to the contrary, so the State does not influence the Church.
Similarly, The City of Vancouver or any Gov’t should not mix the Public’s business with Private Sector ventures. With “perceived” reward there is a risk and a downside, which the taxpaying public should never be exposed to.
Welcome to the IOC mafia.
Oh so predictable.
Cutting to the chase…The IOC has suckered the City (as it has with other Olympic host cities)into allowing the Vancouver citizens to be ” Banker of last resort “.
Vancouver is already a ” world class” ground zero for overpriced Real Estate, an oversupply of condos, NOW THIS potentially major fiscal liability you, the Vancouver citizens cannot avoid ? This sounds like the 1976 Montreal Olympics boodoggle all over again.
Where is the real value in this site…you have waterfront (big deal) in what is stil an industrial/commercial area, and can look North and see the Yaletown towers plastered with “FOR SALE” signs on their windows ? Nice View!!!
At least the dinks in Richmond simply sold their lands adjacent to the Olympic Oval for CASH $$$. Vancouver quasi “joint venture” was both dumb and greedy.
I will envision the Olympic Village deal as a unique one….it has to be built according to plan, no corners can be cut and contractors will milk it to the hilt. Overtime costs may also kick in, but it has to be completed and turned over to VANOC in Nov. 2009.
Now you have a new Council that will be at the mercy of bureaucrats whose own ass is on the line. I can foresee major tax hikes for mid 2009 as they now prepare for their budgets. Vancouvers credit rating will TANK !!!
Don’t want to say I told you so ( but I did and many many times !)
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RVW_0824 Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 11:49 am
The very important point that was missed in that article is that Millennium is NOT going to be able to borrow the remaining money from Fortress to take the project through to completion. Fortress from what I have heard only has to fund the remainder of the facility based on certain presale milestones being met which will not happen no matter how hard Bob Rennie tries to spin it. Either way Fortress likely does not have access to the capital they would need to advance further funds. Keep your eye out for the next announcement (unless they try and keep it quiet) for the City or Province borrowing the additional funds to continue to finance the construction. I would guess this has either happened or will happen in the next 60 days as the last $100MM is going to run out soon if it has not already. I have also heard that the developer is cutting back on the quality of fixtures and amenities to save costs. Please tell me the City will not let this prime piece of real estate go to public housing when they are unable to sell any of the units. This should be on on the front cover of the Vancouver Sun.
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kansai_92 Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 11:56 am
They should have tried to pre-sale the entire project from the get-go.
I don’t know if they were holding back units to make a further killing later on or what they where thinking.
Guess the city will rent them out and flood the rental market until prices recover.
There’s your affordable housing!
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 12:09 pm
Re Olympic Village
It would be good to know the actual Fortress – to- Millenium connection and the pertinent/relevant details.
Regardless, the writing on the wall appears to be that Fortress and Millenium do not have the financing to complete, it will thus now be Taxpayer -financed.
If not mistaken(and the general rule that politial ego trumps all else), the top priority would be to complete “ON TIME” and avoid IOC penalties.
Social Housing?
I doubt it… given the City does have an obligation to its citizens to maximize a return, given this was intended to be a profit -driven investment. Social Housing ,either long term or short term , won’t allow for that, and will ultimately depreciate the value.
Provincial Loan or Bail-Out?
No Frikkin way…even City of Montreal had to eat their cost overruns.
All told….They are giving birth to a white elephant, no sense throwing good money after bad…especially in these tough economic times.
Vancouver actually had a vote on the 2010 Olympics…they approved it… live with the decision and its consequences. Or conversely was Vanocuver prepared to share their anticpated mega profits from the Olympic Village with the rest of BC? I think not, so they can’t have it both ways !!!
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jesse Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 12:23 pm
NO -LYMPICS, good calls, especially the last one. The potential gains would not have been shared and so should be the case with the shortfalls.
What will be the consequences of the fail? Higher taxes? Reduced services? Wage freezes for city workers? Increased parking meter fees and fines? All four?
Maybe to avoid some of this pain there are innovative things the City can do. Anybody have some constructive ideas?
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kuroame Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 12:37 pm
Invoice my portion of the bill to the morons who voted yes for the olympics.
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Matt Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 12:37 pm
Attract high tech industry with corporate tax rebates. British Columbia is overly dependent on resources and has very little in the way of value added industries. Vancouver is perfectly placed as Canada’s gateway to asia. Why is our financial services sector so small? Vancouver also has two very good universities whose grads, if they’re worth a damn, leave for the US or Toronto. The post-secondary education system in BC is excellent but the graduates have no local jobs to go to. Finally, with all the wood that BC exports, why are there virtually no furniture makers? Why are our carpenters so hopeless at building wooden houses and condos that don’t leak and rot?
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YLTNboomerang Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 12:37 pm
I’m looking forward to a complete and utter failure of the OV. I don’t own in Vancouver city so any tax hikes won’t affect me other than perhaps pushing those that are already over-leveraged to sell at a loss.
As for parking meters, they only serve as a rationing device for a scarce resource, not a profit center, so an increase in rates won’t happen; fines might, but this is ok by me too as one should be punished for shirking the law.
Speaking of parking tickets, I got an impark ticket at best buy downtown and called them up to find an address to drop off cash – guess what, they don’t have one, cheque or credit only….hmmm, I didn’t know that companies are allowed to descriminate against cash in Canada.
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I told you so Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 12:39 pm
I have an idea, put an additional income tax on real estate agents and any company related to the RE business.
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jesse Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 12:47 pm
YLTNboomerang: the Canadian government says:
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 12:58 pm
Good points jesse !
It inspired me to put myself into Mayor Gregor and Premier Gordo’s shoes, given how integrated this web of intrigue is.
Gordo has an election in 5 months, and it may be close…or closer if more sh*t hits the fan.
If he tries to buy votes in Vancouver by assisting in this Olympic Village fiasco, other areas of the Province will scream blue bloody murder.
However, IF Gordo gets back in office , there is a tiny window of time (ie May-June)for him to help Vancouver before the Property Taxes have to be paid in early July.
I am not even remotely thinking this economic mess we are in is going to turn around. Vancouver needs HELP and desperately, and they aren’t even worried about the future sales and sales prices yet…they HAVE to build this Olympic village by Nov. 2009.
My best guess is they will access some sort of funding/loan from somewhere, and possibly , as you suggest, raise the taxes,freeze salaries,cut services, and nickel and dime everywhere else.
It was reported a few weeks back that Vancouvers so called “reserves” are actually a bean -counting of assets that can’t be liquidated very easily , ie many of them are real estate . It appears Vancouve blew most of its cash on hand on the Olympic Village already
However, they will try to delay/defer the impact of the solution till after 2010 and then I predict the Vancouver taxpayer will get whacked hard after the Olympic party has left town , starting with the July 2010 property taxes
The Joker in the deck is what Gordo will OR will not do, but Vancouver ain’t getting a freebie. The political(versu pragmatic) strategy I foresee is how much of a delay can they plan out till 2010 party is over , and thus not inspire a non partisan revolt and protest from everyone between Point Grey and Boundary Road.
PS one other thing;
If you do win the lottery and still want one of these condos… I am curious how the warranties would be honoured. Most Local Gov’ts(and I know Vancouver has its own Charter)have statutes of limitation for civil suits…often 6 months, so Vancouver “in theory” could be the last man standing as the General Contractor , but also the most protected if the units become lemons ie leakers etc. and their fall back position is this statute of limitations.
Buyer Beware !
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Neptune Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 1:13 pm
The Olympic Villiage will not be a legacy of the 2010 Vancouver Olympics it will be a legacy of the RE crash in Vancouver.
Vacancy rates of luxury condo’s in the area is already high (ie. The Rise only 70% leased). Watch for vacancies to rise and prices to drop.
It will be a reminder for all to see of the consequences of a RE bubble.
POP
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Neptune Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 1:19 pm
Actully I went to The Rise website and only counted 15 out of 28 units that are currently leased. Thats a little over 50%.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 1:21 pm
Post # 9
” Speaking of parking tickets, I got an impark ticket at best buy downtown and called them up to find an address to drop off cash – guess what, they don’t have one, cheque or credit only….hmmm, I didn’t know that companies are allowed to descriminate against cash in Canada”.
===========================
Parking Companies are D-bags.
I ignore them based on the premise that cost to take you to court (ie just the filing fees) often exceeds the ticket’s value.
In addition(and Playing “Lawyer” ) have a good look and take a digital photo of the signage they posted and compare this to the details of the infraction as the ticket should note .
Often there is a lot of inconsistency.
One major D-Bag parking company “Di*mond Parking.”..has signs posted that are unclear and ambiguous. They claim you will get “a ticket”. Yeah OK, a ticket to what??? the World Series?, Phantom of the Opera?, The Beatles Reunion?
Many of them do not lay out explicity the terms and conditions of the “parking” contract , these only show up and you are only aware after you receive a ticket.
They simply take advantage people’s fears and naivety(sort of like Realturds).
Or simply go to the store you were in an plead a good case so that they will tell the parking company to waive the ticket. Stores need customers, and this may be the quickest solution.
N/C !
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Patiently Waiting Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 1:26 pm
I guess if this gets really bad, it will force down Vancouver property values compared to some suburbs.
As for the next election, the BC NDP seems too weak. Normally, I’d prefer them to the Liberals (note: I’m currently voting Green) but the NDP just doesn’t have it together under Carole James.
In other parts of Canada, the NDP is trying to distance itself from unions. But here, I know from personal experience, CUPE runs the show. Not good.
They are also having harder time connecting to the ordinary lunchbox crew as they pursue extreme political correctness (white men can’t run in winnable seats). Until they start appealing to more than union activists and hardcore feminists, people like me will keep their distance.
The next election goes to the Liberals by default.
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MickeyFinn Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 1:42 pm
Can you say “House of Cards?”
Pretty much all of Vancouver’s numerous condo projects which are under development have one thing in common: leverage.
The developers have levered the projects pre-sales (and their own equity) against constructions loans and the buyers generally lever their purchases with mortgages.
Guess what happens when that leverage fest meets face-to-face with a global economic crisis that is focused on de-leveraging. Can you say melt down.
This is exactly what crushed the 37-storey Jameson House project… even though it had a very significant level of pre-sales.
The Vancouver real estate market is akin to a huge house of cards sitting on top of a coffee table… and someone just let the family dog back into the house.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 1:43 pm
# 16 Good point re: property values!
The pretty boy/girl looks of “world class” Vancouver may simply mask the lurking fiscal liabilities. People will begin to focus on their wallets versus the locale/view propoganda.
People may simply pull- up stakes , cross a bridge or bounce across Boundary Road to avoid this pending fiscal mess in Vancouver. Vancouver’s losses may be Richmond, North Van, Burnaby, New Westminsters etc. gain.
Get out while the getting is good ? , and be curious to track the increase in listings once word does gets out.
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vancouverboom2 Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 1:51 pm
Buy or Rent? Which is better
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/blogs/hometurf
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realpaul Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 2:02 pm
“Broadly speaking, financial crises are protracted affairs. More often than not, the aftermath of severe financial crises share 3 characteristics. First, asset market collapses are deep and prolonged. Real housing price declines average 35% stretched out over 6 years, while equity price collapses average 55 percent over a downturn of about 3.5 years. Second, the aftermath of banking crises is associated with profound declines in output and employment.”
The above quote is economic history. There are so many good points on this string I congratulate you all, so far it’s a very sensible day on VCI.
Those who reject the lessons of history are doomed to repeat thier mistakes, I think that was Marcus Aurelias. It seems the City of Vancouver simply got caught up in the hype and now they are going to pay. But come on…. is there anyone left out there that believes that any of these vacant 6 million dollar condos at Millenium are going to be held in abeyance until the market recovers as was stated in the article?
IT TOOK TWELVE YEARS FOR THE REAL ESTATE MARKET TO RECOVER FROM THE DOWNTURN STARTING IN 1992.
Gregor Roberts is a novice, he’s fresh meat. Campbell is not going to ride in and save this bozo, as it’s been stated, Vancouver is on it’s own with this screw up.
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Anonymous Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 2:29 pm
“Gregor Roberts is a novice, he’s fresh meat. Campbell is not going to ride in and save this bozo, as it’s been stated, Vancouver is on it’s own with this screw up.”
Whats with the Gregor hating. He wasn’t part of this deal. Campbell IMHO is the biggest bozo of them all. Campbell was the one in the front seat while our RE prices climbed out of control and raised government salaries while the goings were good. He’s a tool.
Campbell should have reviewed his history texts on the aftermaths of a RE boom and may be he would have been a little more prepared. The only thing he is going to do is delay the inevitable by trying to fast track small infrustructure projects so that the construction workers can have a couple more months off work before they get layed off.
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betamax Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 2:32 pm
There is a saying about separating Church and State….It was not to imply that the Church influences the state, but to the contrary, so the State does not influence the Church.
A bit of clever revisionism which ignores centuries of history in which European states were grossly influenced by the Catholic church, hence the perceived need to strip the church of state-sanctioned power.
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Aleks Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 2:37 pm
Patiently Waiting,
I agree. The BC NDP remind me of the US Democrats in 2004. The election is there for the taking but I think they’ll f*** it up because they’re focused on things other than winning the election. I’ll still vote NDP though because they’re the only ones who could kick Campbell to the curb. Plus the Green’s non-environmental policy is scary.
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cashisking Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 2:37 pm
Dec Benchmark GVRD C$ 648,421 – down another 2.7% or $18k for the month.
Can they go after renters for VANOC screw up? Don’t worry< I know the answer.
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Neptune Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 2:39 pm
“Soon after its peak (of land values and construction), the real estate market enters a slow phase. It is observed that prices are no longer rapidly advancing. Nominal asking prices stay high, but there are now few buyers. Vacancies rise. Building declines. The sale of bare land drops rapidly, and prices level off. In some instances, a financial panic or crash shatters real estate optimism, though it does not cause an immediate real estate price crash. The commercial crisis and business depression usher in unemployment.
The slackening of industry wears down land values. When the decline begins, it is longer than stock market crashes due to: a) the lack of short selling, b) the tenacity to which owners cling to mortgaged property, and c) the slow process of foreclosure (Hoyt, 1933, p. 407). During the downswing, the net income of real estate falls due to falling rents and increased vacancies, while mortgages and other operating costs remain rigid in the short term. There are widespread defaults on mortgages and other loans. The foreclosure rate increases. Unemployment and lower real wages further reduces demand for real estate. Some residents “double up.” To secure occupants, rents decrease. Many banks fail, having loaned large amounts to illiquid and fallen real estate, a phenomenon clearly evident in the recession of the early 1990s.”
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Patiently Waiting Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 3:11 pm
“Can they go after renters for VANOC screw up? Don’t worry< I know the answer.”
There is no way they can. If landlords try to pass on tax increases, again, just leave the City of Vancouver. Same goes if they nickel and dime renters with fees or there is a decline in services.
As for Gregor, he had the good sense to leave a provincial NDP that was going nowhere. He has a tough job ahead, but let’s give him a chance.
I’m not too worried about Green policies as its just a protest vote. If they get close to government, I’ll be more careful. There’s nobody to vote for, really.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 3:14 pm
# 22
Not really betamax
I actually used to think the same thing, but became party to an enlightening discussion on the topic.
When the CHURCH and STATE “separation” was made…the Church tends to be a relative constant in contrast to Gov’t which tends to be in a constant state of flux , a non constant, and catering to whatever will sway a majority of votes .
The ” state ” also granted ” Freedom of Religion ” in many jurisdictions.
Regardless, the Church still has “power” to influence the state through the democratic process,(though admittedly not to the same degree they used to) but not vice – versa. Gov’t tends to get its grimy greasy fingers in most areas of our lives…but has agreed not to regulate the Church. If Gov’t tried to, my guess is Gov’t would lose,lose badly and Gov’t knows it.
Gov’ts , in drafting this deference to the Church and immunity from Gov’t interference , was likely another political move to avoid future compromising situations/problems. (One could almosy classify it under the “Corporatism ” model whereby certain groups are given monopolistic powers to run their own affairs) .
This aforementioned Church vs State relationship exists, both overt and subtley…its not simply my “opinion”.
Think about it.
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realpaul Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 3:46 pm
#24, you’ve been reading up on the facts, good for you.
#20 Anon, Gregor is a novice, thats just stating a fact nothing more. This is ‘his’ problem now no matter how you slice it.
#25 theres no guarantee that COV won’t introduce ‘residency taxes on renters’. Desperate cretins at Translink are pushing a ‘car’ tax again, why think tenants are safe when the billions owed on the Vancoc fiasco come due. After all, where is all this money going to come from?
Draconian policiy initiatives are being floated in every juridiction as revenues shrink and city /municipal budget projections implode. Expect to see some real idiocy emanate from the folks at City Hall. You don’t think they’re going to roll back thier raises do you?
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Aleks Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 4:12 pm
“I’m not too worried about Green policies as its just a protest vote. If they get close to government, I’ll be more careful. There’s nobody to vote for, really.”
True enough. In a lot of ways I hope Campbell does win, because he created this mess over the last term and deserves to bear the brunt of the blame during the next. The majority of people are not smart enough to do more than blame the government in power.
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MickeyFinn Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 4:30 pm
December benchmark is down $18k for the month… that is more than $500/day saved by not buying.
I recall when guys in Calgary were bragging about the fact that their housing was rising by $500/day. Sweet coincidence.
By the way, in my opinion, that whole benchmark price thing is way too ripe for manipulation… and it’s in the hands of a biased group. The properties that I have been watching for the past year or so have dropped their asking prices by a larger amount than the benchmark has fallen. Make of it what you want, but that’s my two bits as regards the benchmark.
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Anonymous Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 4:46 pm
MickeyFinn, see HPI and Benchmark Comparison. Both the new Case-Shiller style HPI and the REBGV benchmark track each other pretty well. I don’t see conspiracy but maybe I’m missing something.
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Strataman Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 5:03 pm
Matt Says “Why are our carpenters so hopeless at building wooden houses and condos that don’t leak and rot? ”
Because basically they are NOT IN CHARGE only certified engineers and architects!! And THAT my friend is why we have sloppy workmanship because as a rule none of them have the faintest idea of how to build anything other than for cosmetics!
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Patiently Waiting Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 5:15 pm
Considering that most people make less than $250/day, the FBs are losing at least $2 for every $1 they earn. OUCH!!!
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MickeyFinn Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 5:17 pm
Anonymous #30… yes okay the two benchmarks look like they are track pretty similar. Maybe I’m too distrustful of the benchmark but as I mentioned the places I have been following appear to have already dropped by more than the benchmark… then again, my sample size is small.
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realpaul Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 5:21 pm
#29 Mickeyfinn, you’re right to find this discrepancy staring you in the face. Even during an overall collapse there are figures introduced into micro market stats that skew the data for a variety of reasons, it depends on who wants what and whos paying the statistician.
It helps if you’re the one compiling the data, remember the ‘glory hole’ numbers that came out of the BCREA, GVREA, CREA and the real estate pimps like the Credit Unions etc. Where did those numbers come from.
A sane approach to take when dealing with any information coming from these pimps is to treat it with rank suspicion.
It’s easy to add or subtract data from a sample. When someones paycheque relies on not understanding the truth then why expect anything but lies. Remember the old line
” Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics”.
be afraid, be very afraid.
You have to look at the market in pieces ( sub areas of sub areas)to get an actual value for one unit on one block. The REBGV and untrained Realturds use broad samples, too much data for an accurate sampling.
An epicentic approach is one way to better gauge an individual market value through the undestanding of economic factors within that specific micro market. Even in the best neighbourhoods/sub areas, there are better and worse micro markets. Overlapping these stats are how the realturds mistakenly skew values up by compiling all data from broad swatches together with areas which have a differant economic profile. The term ‘location, location’, is allways bandied around but allmost no one understands what it actually entails.
You can’t expect a realturd with a five week license to understand the fine points of forensic evaluation concepts used by professionals trained in urban economics.
An example of false market estimation is seen in the Property Tax Assesments out today. In this case no data was collected instead the government relied on a political value. Bottom line, keep smart, as you are being in assuming that all is not right in the Real Estate Industry.
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cashisking Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 5:22 pm
May benchmark 771k
Dec benchmark 648k
diff = 123k in 6 months or 184 days
$666/day (rounded down $2 for obvious reasons)
Sign of the beast …. aaaaggggghhhhh
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betamax Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 5:25 pm
This aforementioned Church vs State relationship exists, both overt and subtley…its not simply my “opinion”.
Put that way, I agree, and there is long historical precedent for power struggles from both sides; however, the historically recent, deliberate separation was not so much to avoid secular influence as to avoid another Inquisition.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 5:28 pm
Mayor Gregor and Vision Vancouver already tried to ” play with the condo market”
Georgia Straight article from Nov. 2008
” Vision Vancouver’s condo policy questioned”
By Charlie Smith
A promise by Vision Vancouver to end street homelessness by 2015 has garnered a lot of attention following the November 15 civic election. But another part of the party’s platform—a pledge to “unlock vacant condo units as rental properties”—hasn’t generated nearly as much coverage.
Prior to winning Vision’s mayoral nomination, Gregor Robertson mused publicly about imposing a speculator’s tax on vacant condos to entice owners to add them to the rental pool. The Vision platform claimed there are “thousands” of these empty units across the city.
=====================
However, one of the city’s most experienced condo managers claims that whoever dreamed up this plank of the Vision Vancouver platform has a “poor understanding” about how strata corporations operate. Gerry Fanaken, CEO of Vancouver Condominium Services Ltd., told the Straight in a phone interview that there aren’t thousands of vacant units in the city. “The whole premise here is false,” Fanaken insisted. “There may be a few that are sitting vacant. It’s true that maybe developers in a down market might have vacant strata lots…but in terms of properties that are already established, there is simply not that kind of inventory.”
Fanaken’s company manages 175 buildings containing approximately 16,000 units. He said that under the Strata Property Act, strata corporations can create bylaws banning rental units. He said that about half of the buildings under his company’s management have no such bylaws; the rest typically set rules allowing no more than 25 percent of the units to be rented.
He added that it’s “highly unlikely” the provincial government would change the law to prevent strata corporations from banning rentals, because it would anger condo owners. “Strata corporations, as a general rule, try to discourage rentals because they are supposed to be owner-occupied premises,” Fanaken said. “That’s not anything against tenants, but it’s a different mindset.”
The city would have to offer huge incentives to encourage more units to be rented, Fanaken said. “Strata corporations and strata councils are not going to unlock, to use that phrase, on nickels and dimes,” he claimed. “It would have to be substantial, and I think that would defeat the whole purpose of the scheme.”
================================
If Gregor and crew had any remote clue about stratas, they wouldn’t have embarrased themselves with this idea which apparently has not been brought up again. I’ll still give them the benefit of the doubt, but time is running out, as they are already showing signs of poor judgement in making important decisions
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highlands Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 5:33 pm
December benchmark is down $18k for the month… that is more than $500/day saved by not buying.
So if you paid less than $500 a day on rent in Dec, than you’re better off renting than buying?
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YLTNboomerang Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 5:38 pm
Condo rents dropping, check this out:
Listed at $2500 Dec 26
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....09186.html
Dropped to $2380 4 days later
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....70294.html
Dropped to $2500 yesterday
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....75457.html
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 5:47 pm
Post # 28
Realpaul said
QUOTE:
#25 theres no guarantee that COV won’t introduce ‘residency taxes on renters’. Desperate cretins at Translink are pushing a ‘car’ tax again, why think tenants are safe when the billions owed on the Vancoc fiasco come due. After all, where is all this money going to come from?
Draconian policiy initiatives are being floated in every juridiction as revenues shrink and city /municipal budget projections implode. Expect to see some real idiocy emanate from the folks at City Hall. You don’t think they’re going to roll back thier raises do you?
=======================
Local Gov’ts are obligated to balance their budgets.
They have (2) basic choices:
(i) raise taxes etc. or
(ii) request permission of the taxpayer for a loan via a referendum.
My guess is the Vancouver Public would shoot down/ “nuke” the referendum, and the City doesn’t want to get embarrased by this.
That leaves the only ” sure thing ” financing option…an across- the -board raise in taxes, fees , fines and most likely a cut in services.
The Sun columnist threw around a bunch of numbers.
If one considers just the interest costs for the required financing , they are talking Tens of Millions of Dollars of debt to service annually.
( I wonder how bad the hit is if they just cancel the 2010 Olympics…can’t be all that bad, can it? )
Yep
2010= “Go for the Gold ”
( as in gold watch, gold jewelry, gold teeth …)
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cashisking Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 5:48 pm
highlands
Don’t forget carrying costs (strata fees/taxes etc) …
42
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Rado@freemarkets.ca Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 5:50 pm
The detached price is 16% below peak.
I believe that the prices will stabilize for the next 3 to 4 months and then continue their downward trend for the remainder of the year. December 2009 will be another 15% to 20% down from today’s prices.
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cashisking Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 6:09 pm
Q4 economic #’s will reflect to seizing up of the credit markets – numbers will be BRUTAL … I believe most the damage will be done in the first 6 months especially after the “everything will be better in the spring – house price rebound” doesn’t materialize.
15-20% downside in benchmark and 20-25% in real price declines on there way.
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realpaul Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 6:33 pm
#37 . IPSOs REID poll announced today that 74% of British Columbians expect property prices to decrease further in 2009. That doesn’t help the cheerleaders case does it.
BCTV however differs with published stats saying on the news hour tonight that prices were only down 11% ( was that supposed to read ‘this month’.
Gregor Roberts flubbed his first test at Mayoral leadership leaving Vancouverites up to thier ying yangs in snow. He fled to Mexico when he got snowed in after two weeks of indecision, leaving behind all the seniors, schools , hospitals and residents to fend for themselves. ” Let them eat Cake” says Queen Gregor.
#39 Thanks for the pointers, people who complacently file the tax assesment they recieved today ( saying ‘Oh Thats not to bad’) should also have considered that it is not the tax bill they will recieve from thier city / municipality when the huge holes in thier budgets have to be public information.
I wouldn’t think that a cut in services is going to be the first option, tax/service cost hikes are coming , big time, no doubt.
***** Think ’snap provincial election’ before the tax bills come out.
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arit Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 6:55 pm
Greetings
“How much will the Olympic Village cost you?”
This is the topic of the thread. I ask myself the same question. So assuming I am a renter in Richmond:
I do not pay property taxes.
I rarely park downtown Vancouver.
I do not use public transportation.
So the answer is… Nothing? Can it be that simple?
Best regards,
arit
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dboy Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 6:59 pm
# 43
11 percent is for the year. If the stats from peak in May are used it is probably more like 16 percent.
47
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rubberduckie Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 7:16 pm
This may be slightly off topic, but HGTV is premiering a new home porn show this month about RENTING! It’s called “For Rent”. I’m sure that it will be in line with the rest of HGTV’s pro-home-enslavement mandate and they won’t be congratulating renters on savvy money smarts, but rather helping them to buy more home accessories to ease the paint of this transient state.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 7:36 pm
Hmm :
Idea for TV Show:
( Sick of the renovation shows)
More timely topic:
” Condo Survivor “, how to ride it out .
No holds- barred methods to keep from being foreclosed on as price crashes.
10 people are each given a condo with a 0/40 mortgage.
Winner = ____?(keeps it? OR can bail ?)
==========================================
From Wall Street Journal
“In Avondale there was a 576-square-foot shack which was owned by a bankrupt woman with a history of substance abuse and was recently declared unfit for human occupancy. Less than two years ago a local mortgage lender arranged a $103,000 mortgage for the unemployed occupant, Marvene Halterman. The mortgage, of course, was destined to go into foreclosure because Halterman had no money and hadn’t worked in 13 years.
But the lender, Integrity Funding, which picked Halterman out of a phone book to cold call, didn’t care. That company made $9,000 in fees, and then sold the loan to Wells Fargo bank, which sold it to a unit of HSBC bank which packaged it into a securitization with 4,050 other mortgages and sold it to scores of investors, after Standard and Poor’s and Moody’s had given a Triple-A rating to the offering. One of the investors was the Teacher’s Retirement System of Oklahoma, which put half a million dollars on the line.
The Halterman property went into foreclosure, of course, was bought by neighbours for $18,000 and torn down. More than 1,000 of the mortgages that HSBC packaged and sold have turned to dust, which means tens of millions of dollars evaporated. Across the US, just over $4 trillion in similar loans were sold in a single year. Many investors are only discovering now, they – and the massive banks that financed these – are ruined.
Meanwhile in Avondale, where about 70,000 people live, one house in nine is now in foreclosure. ”
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realpaul Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 7:54 pm
#45 dboy, if you believe that you have either just arrived, been away for a year, like to listen to the news stoned or want to buy this really cool bridge I have for sale.
#47, you might like this site
http://dollarcollapse.com/
they have a great real estate section
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vancouverboom2 Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 8:45 pm
HOLY SMOKES
LOOK There is no fear whatsoever on the face of superstar city of this world,hard rock inventory has been collapsed and new numbers are at 9810 while snow pile is still on the street,Oh Vancouver Boom2 Countinue to take Vancouver into boom2 by storm.WHAT AN AMAZING SUPERSTAR CITY ON EARTH.
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Rado@freemarkets.ca Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 9:05 pm
Inventory in Greater Vancouver is at 13,597, after year-end expirations. Those expired listings will be back in the market soon.
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vancouverboom2 Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 9:22 pm
Rado those numbers 13,500 were posted for december,2008 and 9810 is for January 3,2009. http://agentwill.com/weekly-stats/ but yes paul has recently posted new numbers 13,597 for december 5,2008.
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Anonymous Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 9:28 pm
December 5,2009
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blueskies Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 9:34 pm
vancouverneverboom2
agent will covers a different area than paulb and rob chipman covers a different area than either of the first two…
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Rado@freemarkets.ca Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 9:42 pm
vancouverboom2, the number is for January 5th 2009. NOT December 2008. http://www.nvcondos.ca/aPage.jsp?aPageId=8
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vancouverboom2 Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 9:53 pm
Blueskies,
Those are all excuses other area does not exit in mls system but these three people makes a huge differences same way board states price drop but assessment value goes up because that area is not under their radar.
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realpaul Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 10:02 pm
This statement from the EL Presidente ( EL REALTARDO GRANDE ) of REBGV Dave Watts makes you want to ask yourself if the biggest concern now is to manage the message.
” Low prices are not the concern as much as the view that prices are falling”.
It would appear the EL PRESIDENTE either can’t control his mouth or has a mouth -brain disconnect or in fact is just a total moron and speaks for treats like a trained dog.
This appeared in the Vanc Sun Dec 5/08 PG A17
Apparently they ( the dipshit realturd community and the developers lackeys)) would prefer we don’t know whats happening. Disinformation and misrepresentation are hard at work. This is exactly why these information exchange forums are so important.
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Anonymous Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 10:07 pm
Then you and olympics flood your own gibberish on this forum,hey paul you are totally disconected from reality that’s why you bark in response.
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realpaul Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 10:30 pm
#57 I didn’t realise that this forum was interdimensional.Cool.
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Supraboy Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 11:03 pm
Is it fact or is it propaganda? My dad just read the chinese newspaper here and he said Vancouver real estate will turn upwards in mid 2009.
So who should we believe now?
That Chinese newspaper, I think, is a bunch of bull. They’re trying to keep the Chinese in Vancouver upbeat thinking they’ll be richer.
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Anonymous Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 11:26 pm
“So who should we believe now?”
Well, you’ve got your dad’s opinion, so why don’t you go get mom’s?
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Supraboy Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 11:38 pm
Mom’s busy watching TV and she doesn’t care.
Real Estate agent once said, “you’re speculating if you’re hoping that prices go down.”
That’s the dumbest thing I’ve heard in my life. I’ll sit and watch what happens the next 3-4 months. Nobody really knows but if I was a betting man, I say at least another 10% downfall in prices in the next 3 months.
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asalvari Says:
January 5th, 2009 at 11:43 pm
#60 LOL
This is THE BEST joke on this blog, ever!
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CZ Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 12:17 am
#60 – please be respectful.
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CZ Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 12:25 am
Supraboy,
Have you heard the Chinese byword: “瞎子算命老来好” (the blind fortune teller always predicts that you will be happier when you get elder)?
Just to delay your feeling of the current miserable state and give you a hope in the far future in order to sell you some spiritual comfort. A little bit better than the kool-aid.
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islander Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 1:02 am
I told you so wrote: “I have an idea, put an additional income tax on real estate agents and any company related to the RE business.”
I’ve got a better idea: Put an additional tax on economic retards and comment boarders who support such stupid ideas.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 6:46 am
Last nights 6 PM news on Global was funny.
Global commissioned some sort of opinion poll re: the economy.
One gal talked about the Olympics and how they will be an economic generator, attract lots of people etc. (typical wide -eyed naiveness).
I guess there is still some unfrozen kool aid circulating.
Helmut Pastrick was on as well….his economic numbers were absolutely goofy as well. Looking more and more like a sideshow barker.
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blueskies Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 6:59 am
Fake landlord takes cash from international students
http://tinyurl.com/9opaft
A B.C. condo owner is fighting to get her downtown Vancouver property out of the hands of a convicted criminal who posed as a tenant and leased her suite, then turned around and rented it out to several students from Japan and Korea — while not paying rent to her.
….and so it goes
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 7:26 am
Seriously…who gives a sh*t re: the so – called “offical RE Inventory numbers” ?
It’s like Pet Rock inventory and putting on a “Best Before” date.
There is a pool of interested sellers. The ones currently listing ie the ” Type A ” are either dumb or desperate.
The other group ” Type B ” wants to sell but can see the writing on the wall, the market is flatlining , and will pull back for now. Call these sellers potential listers, but the numbers won’t reflect them. Type “B” listings may be able to hold on (ie fishing for the right price ) or may not be able to hold on for too long, but regardless don’t show up in quantifiable numbers.
I continually drive by recently completed condo product, with few signs of life. Its getting easier and easier to identify these specuvestor units. If they haven’t been owner occupied by now , nor rented, they form “Type C” potential listers. This group has either lost value or will be foreclosed on…and many of these will soon burst onto the listing scene.
This is a whole different market, with new fundamentals.
The listing groups are comprised of :
“Type A” + “Type B” + “Type C” = Total Listing
All we see are TYPE “A” listers so far…
Type B is fickle and could burst onto the scene at any time.
This type may be more pragmatic and make an educated guess as to the RE market. Will they or can they wait out another cycle ?
Type “C” could be a Tsunami of listings and very soon.
Throw the other “offical” listing data in the garbage.
Only REBGV and other Realturd cult members want to beleive this and have their clients beleive this as well.
We’ll see who has the last laugh.
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alexcanuck Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 7:37 am
No-lympics:
Are marginal owner-occupied, who are one lay-off or unexpected expense away from default, included in your types above? If the economy doesn’t recover strongly and soon, all your categories will see considerable pressure. The perfect storm indeed.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 8:58 am
# 70 alexcanuck:
Good point…perhaps a 4th category…. ” Type D ”
for innocent victims caught up in circumstances beyond their control. Type “D” has always existed….” Type C ” came to mind more as a recently – evolved owner species produced in bulk.
I will expand further on “Type B”.
Many of these may be retired or near retired…bought their home cheap say less than $100,000 on the West Side…….it peaked at say $1 Million…they may moan they missed the peak selling price, (many people are psychologically fixed on $ 1 Million ) but after the dust settles it simply becomes a relativity game. Unless the prices crash in a mushroom cloud…they will still be ahead.
They may hav envisoned moving to Kelowna…but “Kelowna Housing Armaggedon blog” talks about 70 % crash in Kelowna.
So here is the scenario.
Sell at the Peak here for $ 1 million , Buy at the Peak in Kelowna say for $500,000
Or sell now for $700,000 …buy in Kelowna for $200,000.
(Note: I will use these prices as “examples” for sake of discussion )
Same difference of $500,000 .
So what is the difference..its the spread, not necessarily a trophy selling price.
In fact the spread may be greater AFTER the dust settles.
If we assume that Vancouver areas will continue to be the “relative” ground zero of peak prices…outlying areas and especially those with the most bogus fundamentals may suffer the biggest collapse.
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jesse Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 9:01 am
“Throw the other “offical” listing data in the garbage.
Only REBGV and other Realturd cult members want to beleive this and have their clients beleive this as well.”
Funny how high months of inventory correlates nicely with price drops. From this we can infer that the proportion of “Type A B or C” sellers does not significantly change. I think what we are seeing is a significant portion of listings are still trying to speculate. The speculation continues all the way down which is why inventory is high with unrealistic prices.
The difference now is Mr. Market isn’t cooperating. Greed and speculation are still in abundant supply only this time it confirms these types weren’t as smart as they thought.
You are more than welcome to second-guess the listings numbers. Personally I think they give a decent guide as to how FAST things will correct. The end destination of prices after the bubble fully deflates, however, has always been assured.
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jesse Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 9:07 am
“So what is the difference..its the spread, not necessarily a trophy selling price.”
So which is more important, percentage gains or actual dollar amounts? Typically whichever gives the more palatable answer.
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scoop Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 9:19 am
Some “good news” for the remaining RE bulls in today’s Globe. Royal Lepage says this is a correction, not a crash. And even though they call for Vancouver to experience steeper declines than the rest of the country (further 9%), you’ll be glad to know that this is a “natural cyclical reaction” and certainly not a “U.S.-style collapse”.
I love the semantic games some realtors play.
http://tinyurl.com/7nequc
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scoop Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 9:22 am
And then there’s this one – Even though December sales were down over 50% year over year, Dave Watt clings desperately for hope to the fact that December sales were up a bit from November.
http://tinyurl.com/9gojyb
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kuroame Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 9:27 am
No-lympics; “It was not to imply that the Church influences the state, but to the contrary, so the State does not influence the Church”
The seperation is not Church vs. State, it is meant to prevent the power of the state being used by the church to influence the spiritual beliefs of the individual.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 9:53 am
jesse
My comments were inspired by how the experts love to play the stats with quaint verbiage especially when things are flushing in spiral fashion downward.
I have duly noted over the various RE cycles the Real Estate boards and Realturd “RE Bible quotes” that they pull out of the bag depending on the current market reality.
An expensive home(one of those $30 million ones ) that sells to “the class of rich who don’t care re price” can seriously skew the numbers they call “benchmark” etc. . They would play that as ” Ooo , see the market is UP ! Time to buy !”
If number of listings decline, ” they ” will use that as inventory is down ….therefore less supply….. thus less supply = demand will rise = prices will rise.
If benchmark price goes down…”oh that is a market correction, that is common…overheated market…but inventory will be pulled off and we can expect demand to exceed supply and prices will rise”.
In their perfect world, both listings, sales and prices rise in sync… then the siren call of ” Buy now or forever be kept out of the market “.
“Plus don’t forget 2010 !”
Round round goes the Realturd spin cycle.
They spin every scenario as a positive… its their job….they are SALESMEN …(it is borderline illegal for them to tell the truth after they get their license in 5 weeks).
PS
The numbers I will watch is how many actually re-new their Realtors license. (Even Bob Rennie’s )
They have access to the real relevant RE stats, no matter how they try to spin it to the rest of us .
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highlands Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 10:43 am
By the way, in my opinion, that whole benchmark price thing is way too ripe for manipulation…
What would be the point? It’s not like they can change fundamentals or the economy. Once prices start dropping they need to find a sensible level, if the stats where changed to make them look better or worse it doesn’t change reality. There would be no benefit to altering the stats.
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john Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 10:48 am
I can tell you right now that the Olympic Village will be a huge success for everyone involved. Everyone wants a piece of the olympics after they’re done so they’ll probably sell the condos on Ebay to rich asians and rich Americans who want to live the olympic dream. Any condos not sold on Ebay will be rented out to wealthy businessmen who need to be close to downtown during the week. I’ll probably buy a few of the condos as investments. This is the boom town of the world.
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I told you so Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 10:53 am
To Islander:
told you so wrote: “I have an idea, put an additional income tax on real estate agents and any company related to the RE business.”
I’ve got a better idea: Put an additional tax on economic retards and comment boarders who support such stupid ideas.
————————————————————
Can’t you tell the difference between a fun, spontaneous comment from a serious proposal? I wont even insult you back because I consider life has already punished enough by giving you such limited mental capability.
Are you in RE?
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realpaul Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 10:54 am
#74 They’re certainly not rushing the Dec numbers to market are they? Could it be that little lesson in crowd control that the REBGV is trying to exercise?
#76 On the money as allways
I was just listening to an analyst from RBC Capital who said
” We’re in for a pretty serious downturn, it is going to get a lot worse before we see any recovery.”.
Our own Finance Minister saide the same thing this week as did President Obama, just yesterday.
Anyone thinking that real estate is going to start turning up in ‘mid-09′ is just deluded.
Helmut Pasterick looked like he had a gun to his head on Global last night. His body language was telling us how big a lie he was into.
Dave Watts is slopping out the snake oil while the entire industry is falling on it’s ass. Is he perpetrating some kind of real estate PONZI SCHEME, trying to sucker new money in to bail out the old?
You’d think public servants would be more responsible or moral or ethical, no such luck with Dave Watts.
82
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realpaul Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 10:58 am
#78 Where are all the Rich Asians buying into Utah, Beijing and Athens etc. The ‘living the Olympic dream’ you mention is apparently non-existent in any of the cities the Olympic train wreck has crashed into.
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gadwin Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 11:14 am
2008 May detached benchmark: $771,250
2008 June detached benchmark: $765,654
2008 July detached benchmark: $753,165
2008 August detached benchmark: $737,985
2008 September detached benchmark: $726,331
2008 October detached benchmark: $695,962
2008 November detached benchmark: $666,525
2008 December detached benchmark: $648,421
As per the latest REBGV stats, what a disaster.
84
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realpaul Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 11:19 am
#82 I don’t believe the Dec numbers at all from REBGV look around
http://news.moneycentral.msn.c.....id=9487813
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realpaul Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 11:26 am
Crash numbers from Britian, don’t look if your a ‘true believer’
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article8080.html
86
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realpaul Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 11:28 am
shades of ‘29
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/.....refer=home
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realpaul Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 11:36 am
So much good stuff on the desk this a.m. heres an excerpt from a research paper I had to read today
“What should be noted regarding Japan’s experience is that the enthusiasm of market participants, together with the inconsistent projection of fundamentals, contributed to a large degree to maintaining temporarily high asset prices at that time. Such enthusiasm is often called euphoria, excessively optimistic but unfounded expectations for the long-term economic performance, lasting for several years before dissipating.”
“It was thus excessive optimism rather than consistent projection of fundamentals that mainly supported temporarily high asset prices.”
So on this point, we are similar. That is, market fundamentals had nothing to do with price rises and the justification given for the boom was usually excessive optimism transmitted by “real estate never goes down” or some other form of delusional thinking.
Does anything here seem familiar. Aren’t the Japanese Rich Asians? Oh Yeah, they are the richest.
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Aleks Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 11:37 am
“You are more than welcome to second-guess the listings numbers. Personally I think they give a decent guide as to how FAST things will correct. The end destination of prices after the bubble fully deflates, however, has always been assured.”
Raw listing numbers are pretty arbitrary, but months of inventory is one of the best leading indicators you can look at because it captures changes in both supply and demand. There’s a pretty consistent 1-3 month lag between MOI and price changes.
Back in October the realtors were still talking about a soft landing or even a recovery, but the MOI spiked up around 16 and sure enough we’ve seen some massive price drops since then. Things like days on market and average/median selling price can get skewed or manipulated, but the MOI number is just the number of sales and listings. Doesn’t matter whether those were re-lists or million+ properties or pre-sales people didn’t complete on, nor does it really matter whether the total number of listings is 5,000 or 10,000 or 20,000, because a lack of sales is just as bad for the market as a surge in listings.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 11:42 am
79 john Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 10:48 am
I can tell you right now that the Olympic Village will be a huge success for everyone involved. Everyone wants a piece of the olympics after they’re done so they’ll probably sell the condos on Ebay to rich asians and rich Americans who want to live the olympic dream. Any condos not sold on Ebay will be rented out to wealthy businessmen who need to be close to downtown during the week. I’ll probably buy a few of the condos as investments. This is the boom town of the world
=============================================
Ah John…(aka Bob Rennie)
A-L-W-A-Y-S look forward to your posts.
Seriously now (or am I doing a John?)
Go up to Hizzoner Mayor Gregor and Vision 20/10 crew and see if you can buy one or more Olympic Village condos for below list price…(put in a bunch of weasel-out subject -to’s like “no raise in taxes” etc. ).
Once they see your SUV collection they know they got a sincere(?) purchaser (?) .
Report back.
PS
Ask Gregor if he will be in Mexico during the 2010 Olympics just like he was when the snow clogged the city streets.
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scullboy Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 11:56 am
A friend of mine owns a townhouse near Tinseltown and he’s convinced prices will rise 10% in 2009…. apparently he heard it on “the news” (didn’t get the specific source).
Some people are really gullible They’ll believe anything as long as it’s told to them by someone on TV or in the papers. I don’t get how you can reconcile what’s going on in the rest of the world, and I mean EVERYWHERE ELSE EXCEPT VANCOUVER, with the idea that Vancouver’s real estate is on the rise. It’s a sunning example of cognitive dissonance.
People are still drinking the ol’ Olympic koolaid too. I think it’s like I said earlier. Nobody wants to lose money, so they convince themselves that they aren’t. I think we’re still near the top of the downward slope. Prices are dropping but the seller community as a whole aren’t yet in a panic. House price drops are still happening to other people, as it were, not to them.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 11:58 am
There is a point that the numbers posted by the REBGV etc. reach a quantum leap of UNdeniable truth..ie they get so bad, they simply can’t get spun in the positive mode, no matter how hard they try.
Just because they report the RE stats doesn’t mean they are trying to be upfront and altruistic, they may have no bloody choice BUT to report them . OR, IF they actually had a choice , they may not report them .
I am wondering if the Realtors are brainstroming in behind the scenes and even reaching a consensus to turn down listings…like a DeBeers cartel would purposely restrict supply. There has to be a “critical mass” point whereby too many obvious listings begins to work against them ie scares off buyers (except for lowballing sharks).
Me?
I’ll take the grassroots stats data …more “FOR SALE “signs are going up on all types of Real Estate, and still haven’t seen a single “SOLD” sign. “For Rent” signs are becoming more and more frequent. I will take those “visual picture is worth a thousand words stats” over what the Pros try to sell me/us on.
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Brittanny Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 12:11 pm
PREDICTION: DETACHED BENCHMARK 2009
JANUARY….$628,421
FEBRUARY…$618,421
MARCH……$598,421
APRIL……$578,421
MAY……..$558,421
JUNE…….$528,421
JULY…….$488,421
AUGUST…..$438,421
SEPTEMBER… SORRY FOLKS,NO ONE TO DO NUMBERS THIS MONTH AS REBGV IS NOW CLOSED FOR BUSINESS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
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read on Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 12:34 pm
gadwin Says:
…….
As per the latest REBGV stats, what a disaster.
—————
I see no disaster. Not from my POV, at least.
94
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Lily pad Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 12:56 pm
I found a website that explains the foreclosure process for those of you who are interested.
http://www.foreclosures.ca/rea.....mbia.lasso
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Supraboy Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 1:15 pm
Realpaul,
“I was just listening to an analyst from RBC Capital who said
” We’re in for a pretty serious downturn, it is going to get a lot worse before we see any recovery.”.
Our own Finance Minister said the same thing this week as did President Obama, just yesterday.
Anyone thinking that real estate is going to start turning up in ‘mid-09′ is just deluded.”
You know what? There were a lot of jokers like Bernanke and Paulson that swore under oath saying things were fine a year ago and raised rates. Now when things are bad, everyone does the opposite. Now who should you believe? Should people who have cash be buying during bad times? We’ll wait and see. I’ll sit on the sidelines and watch this unfold the next 6 months.
96
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Supraboy Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 1:16 pm
Forgot to mention, bulls and bears are both deluded. They all want things to swing one way for their own benefit.
97
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JD Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 1:22 pm
The new year re-listing flood has begun! My VOW listings usually come in about 10 to 12 a week, but yesterday alone i recieved 16 new listings with my parameters. I bet we see a flood of listings through Jan and end the month way up from where we started it, since buyers seem to be mostly extinct in this market.
98
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Lily pad Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 1:25 pm
If you tune into BNN now you will see a guy from “you walk away” being interviewed.
The show is called “The Close” and just had the head dude from the Canadian Homebuilder’s Assoc. saying there is no problema in Canada.
The clip should show up on here http://www.bnn.ca/ within the next hour when it is finished on “live” TV.
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Lily pad Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 1:32 pm
Correction on post #97:
The guy being interviewed on BNN is not from “you walk away” but rather “walk away” which is a Canadian company that helps people walk away from their hyundai cars due to illness or job loss.
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realpaul Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 1:34 pm
#77 you would think that it would be that way but it’s not. manipulating the statistics are what these chimps are trying to do to manage the publicity campaign during the crash
#87, I just listened to a report on BNN at 1;18pm saying that 56% of all new home inventory remains unsold. Add to this the new (119K) units coming into the market by builders who missed the signals and you’ve got an inventory overhang which should tip the RE market into the abyss.
#88 right on the money
#94 Supra boy ( an intelligent comment for a change) Did you buy a brain on Second Life or did you put down the crack pipe today? Just kidding since you actually sound reasonable today, congrats.
Welcome to reality. As far as buying in a falling market, particularily with a non fungable asset like real estate you risk a direct capital loss . Statistics do not align with even the best babble talk we hear from the RE cheerleaders. Prices are falling and the momentum is gaining speed.
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realpaul Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 1:41 pm
#97 Lilypad the ‘walk away ‘ guy was not the ‘walk away’ guy from Calif. It’s a CDN insurance underwriting scheme doing buisness with Hyundai to sell cars on a “if you lose your job within 12 months of buying a Hyundai we’ll take the car back under certain conditions” scheme.
There are allways some interesting new buisnesses that spring up from the result of recessions take the “Dollar Store’ concept for example which popped out of the 80’s recession and went worldwide. Liquidation World type shops are another ex. Can you think of any others? Oh yeah, Big Box stores.
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blueskies Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 1:44 pm
this is what 2% per month decline over 24 months
does to a house worth $600K….. ain’t purty at all…
hopefully the formatting works
factor/% price month discount new price
2 $600,000.00 1 $12,000 $588,000
0.02 $588,000.00 2 $11,760 $576,240
0.02 $576,240.00 3 $11,525 $564,715
0.02 $564,715.20 4 $11,294 $553,421
0.02 $553,420.90 5 $11,068 $542,352
0.02 $542,352.48 6 $10,847 $531,505
0.02 $531,505.43 7 $10,630 $520,875
0.02 $520,875.32 8 $10,418 $510,458
0.02 $510,457.81 9 $10,209 $500,249
0.02 $500,248.66 10 $10,005 $490,244
0.02 $490,243.68 11 $9,805 $480,439
0.02 $480,438.81 12 $9,609 $470,830
0.02 $470,830.03 13 $9,417 $461,413
0.02 $461,413.43 14 $9,228 $452,185
0.02 $452,185.16 15 $9,044 $443,141
0.02 $443,141.46 16 $8,863 $434,279
0.02 $434,278.63 17 $8,686 $425,593
0.02 $425,593.06 18 $8,512 $417,081
0.02 $417,081.20 19 $8,342 $408,740
0.02 $408,739.57 20 $8,175 $400,565
0.02 $400,564.78 21 $8,011 $392,553
0.02 $392,553.49 22 $7,851 $384,702
0.02 $384,702.42 23 $7,694 $377,008
0.02 $377,008.37 24 $7,540 $369,468
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 1:52 pm
Toyota just announced an 11 day shut down , too much unsold product
http://www.guardian.co.uk/busi.....y-closures
QUOTE:
Toyota, Japan’s biggest carmaker and the world’s second-biggest behind General Motors, said today it would close all of its domestic plants for 11 days in an unprecedented attempt to stave off redundancies and shift its stock of unsold cars amid a catastrophic decline in sales.
The decision, coming soon after the Japanese carmaker announced plans to close 11 of its 12 factories in Japan for three days later this month, is expected to increase the pressure on other makers to follow suit.
Toyota is heading for its first operating loss in more than 70 years, largely due to plummeting demand in the US.
The firm is bracing itself for an operating loss through to the end of March of ¥150bn (£1.1bn), compared with a ¥2.27 trillion profit last year. Global sales are expected to total 7.5m vehicles, down 8.5% from last year.
Toyota’s sales in the US dropped 37% last month, the biggest monthly drop for more than 25 years, and by 18% in Japan.
Lower fuel prices saw sales of the Toyota’s best-selling hybrid, the Prius, fall 45% in the US.
The Japanese firm’s performance in the US was even worse than those of its struggling US rivals, with Ford’s sales dropping 32% and GM 31%
=======================================
So, what is often seen as a better quality product , been profitable for 70 years, has seen its sales in the US cut more than even the U.S. domestic automakers.
Yep..good thing we live in Canada..we are immune to all this global meltdown !
Pass the backbacon and beer
I’m Bob McKenzie in the Great White North signing off
” Coo Rooo Coo CooCooCoooCoo Coo Coooooo”
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Lily pad Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 1:52 pm
realpaul: “#97 Lilypad the ‘walk away ‘ guy was not the ‘walk away’ guy from Calif. It’s a CDN insurance underwriting scheme doing buisness with Hyundai to sell cars on a “if you lose your job within 12 months of buying a Hyundai we’ll take the car back under certain conditions” scheme.”
Ya, I realized that and corrected myself. My bad
The first part of my posting was accurate, though, and the interview with head of the Canadian Homebuilder’s Assoc. is worth watching. That’s the clip where they said unsold inventory of new homes increased 56% ACROSS CANADA.
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realpaul Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 1:56 pm
How about a Monty Python moment
http://www.thesmokinggun.com/a.....vail4.html
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realpaul Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 2:05 pm
“lies, damned lies, statisitics”. Is Royal Le Page including housing in Nunuvut, North West Territories and off -reserve farmland in Northern Saskatchewan in it’s “National Statistics” of course they are. These puff pieces are designed to confuse the uneducated.
http://www.globeinvestor.com/s.....6/GIStory/
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realpaul Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 2:14 pm
Alcoa slashes 13,5oo jobs, predicts ‘lengthy recession’
Bad news for bulls
Alcoa slashes jobs, output to conserve cash
Aluminum giant to take four-quarter charge of at least $900 million
By Matt Andrejczak, MarketWatch
Last update: 4:36 p.m. EST Jan. 6, 2009Comments: 63SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) – Alcoa Inc. said Tuesday it is cutting 13% of its workforce, closing plants, and further curbing aluminum output to conserve cash as it battens down for a lengthy recession
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jesse Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 2:29 pm
“Forgot to mention, bulls and bears are both deluded.”
You don’t think it’s possible to objectively look at a market and figure out the most likely outcome based upon data and logic? You do yourself and many other posters here a disservice. You have some interesting comments and, up until now, your motives have been pretty much irrelevant.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 2:38 pm
Realpaul:
Here is some sound financial advice
What’s old is new again.
(From E. Idle, Esquire)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v.....mp;index=0
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jesse Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 2:39 pm
“Raw listing numbers are pretty arbitrary, but months of inventory is one of the best leading indicators you can look at because it captures changes in both supply and demand. There’s a pretty consistent 1-3 month lag between MOI and price changes.”
Agree however I should add that high inventory and low sales are closely related. Much of the market is effectively house trading; that is, many a house that doesn’t sell means another cannot be bought.
We are seeing the entire real estate food chain gummed up. Interestingly a small change in the number of willing and able buyers will cause things to wildly swing — every first-time-buyer and investor-buyer has 2-3 sellers who depend upon them. Leverage isn’t just in finance, it’s inherent in the way the housing inventory system works as well!
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Lily pad Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 3:13 pm
If you go to this site
http://www.bcassessment.bc.ca/.....ndex0.aspx
you can see the 2008 property sales transactions for 2008. (I’m not sure which month is the cut off).
You can see the assessed value for 2007 (which I believe was based on March figures) compared to the assessed value for July 2008. If you didn’t know that house prices decreased approx. 16% from May 2008 and you looked up the “value” of your house you might just think it increased in value since last year.
This is really depressing and will cause all sorts of emotional confusion on the part of the seller. How can a person reconcile the “Wow, my house is worth 6% more this year — I’m rich” with “Nobody wants to buy my house, not even for 20% below the 2007 assessment price”. Also, it makes life so much more difficult for us in the know who have to deal with our friends and colleagues going through this roller coaster ride.
What to do?
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Lily pad Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 3:14 pm
Try
http://www.bcassessment.bc.ca/
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Lily pad Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 3:28 pm
Ok, I see that the sales transactions reported are from January, 2007 and October 31, 2008 as it says right on the BC Assessment website:
“For this year only, the 2009 Property Assessment Value reflects market value as of July 1, 2007 or July 1, 2008, whichever is lower. Sales information is from properties that sold between 01 January 2007 and 31st October 2008. Each year you may review additional details for up to eight properties per PIN. Click here to see a list of details available. To proceed, you require the Assessment Roll Number and the PIN from your assessment notice. Check the box beside properties you want to review and click More Info. Property details are available until midnight (PST) on the 2nd February 2009″
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realpaul Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 3:37 pm
#108 hilarious THX
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blueskies Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 3:40 pm
Also, it makes life so much more difficult for us in the know who have to deal with our friends and colleagues going through this roller coaster ride.
What to do?
you have to appear sympathetic while
changing the subject subtly ……
you may have to practice in a mirror
“Hey how ’bout them Canucks eh?”
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realpaul Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 4:05 pm
112 The assesed values (for purpose of tax assesments) have nothing to do with individual values. Tax assesments are designed to reflect a cachement area general values. The appraisal process does attempt to adjust however imperfectly for anomalies in the specific sub areas.
The court requires that tax evaluations fall within a range of plus or minus five percent. The City and Municipality develop a ‘mill-rate’ from the generalized numbers and divide the budget ( financial wish list) into the average values overall. This can be detrimental to an individual property owner which is why the court allows for a generous appeals process. Appeal adjust anomalistic assesment allmost 100% of the time. You just have to apply.
Heres an example of how people can be fooled by published statistics/average values.
10 homes in a cachement ( sub sector) sell for 300,000
1 home sells for 2,000,000
10 X 300,000 = 3,000,000
1 X 2,000,000 = 2,000,000
number of units = 11
total value = 5,000,000
Average value = ( 5,000,000 divided by 11) = $454,545.00
(note this the mathematical average not a mean average)
A ’smart real estate publication quickly sees that ‘average values are now $454,545 up from 300,000 !!!!!! a year ago
( forgetting that one stat has scewed the average).
These crazy numbers get published and unfortuneatly a few people who are extremly math challenged are going to believe them. Thats why when I look at Royal Le Page numbers, REBGV numbers, etc., I laugh so hard I allmost pee myself.
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Thompson Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 4:18 pm
Supraboy Says: “Is it fact or is it propaganda? My dad just read the chinese newspaper here and he said Vancouver real estate will turn upwards in mid 2009.
So who should we believe now?
That Chinese newspaper, I think, is a bunch of bull. They’re trying to keep the Chinese in Vancouver upbeat thinking they’ll be richer.”
Immigrants from China will continue to arrive in Greater Vancouver 40000 – 50000 strong every year as in the past. Yuan to C$ is 5.6:1 compare to 6.8:1 in the past, so more buying power.
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Lily pad Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 4:36 pm
realpaul: “(note this the mathematical average not a mean average)”
What is the difference between the two, if you don’t mind my asking?
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Vansanity Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 4:47 pm
Once the olympics are over, what flavor koolaid will they drink?
Stick a fork in this market. The numbers speak for themselves and are much more meaningful than rhetoric and opinion from either bull or bear viewpoints.
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jesse Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 5:56 pm
“Immigrants from China will continue to arrive in Greater Vancouver 40000 – 50000 strong every year as in the past.”
That’s good for them because they’ll have lots of choices where to live, whether they rent or buy. Guess which one they choose to do when prices are dropping 2% per month.
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realpaul Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 6:43 pm
#118 lilypad, a mean average is an arbitrary number which separates the sample ( in this case real estate sales figures) into two
:EX
If there are ten sales from 100K to 1 million then sale number five ( 500K) represents the ‘mean’ average , It’s often used by the realturd industry to confuse the math challenged. It’s simply the number in the middle, it means absolutly nothing.
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M- Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 6:53 pm
Realpaul: you mean “median”.
2 2 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 9
Given this set of numbers:
Average = Mean = (75/11) = 6.8
Median = middle value = 8
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Lily pad Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 9:43 pm
Thanks M-
For a minute there I thought might have missed a “New Math” concept! Glad to know I’m not that out of it
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Supraboy Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 9:59 pm
“#94 Supra boy ( an intelligent comment for a change) Did you buy a brain on Second Life or did you put down the crack pipe today? Just kidding since you actually sound reasonable today, congrats.”
I think I got a second life since I’m making money from stocks.
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Franco Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 3:08 am
Never,believe what Chinese media which is extremely bias and interpret international event with naive sino-insanity.
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Franco Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 3:08 am
Never,believe what Chinese said media which is extremely bias and interpret international event with naive sino-insanity.