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January 6th, 2009 at 1:34 pm
#77 you would think that it would be that way but it’s not. manipulating the statistics are what these chimps are trying to do to manage the publicity campaign during the crash
#87, I just listened to a report on BNN at 1;18pm saying that 56% of all new home inventory remains unsold. Add to this the new (119K) units coming into the market by builders who missed the signals and you’ve got an inventory overhang which should tip the RE market into the abyss.
#88 right on the money
#94 Supra boy ( an intelligent comment for a change) Did you buy a brain on Second Life or did you put down the crack pipe today? Just kidding since you actually sound reasonable today, congrats.
Welcome to reality. As far as buying in a falling market, particularily with a non fungable asset like real estate you risk a direct capital loss . Statistics do not align with even the best babble talk we hear from the RE cheerleaders. Prices are falling and the momentum is gaining speed.
January 6th, 2009 at 1:32 pm
Correction on post #97:
The guy being interviewed on BNN is not from “you walk away” but rather “walk away” which is a Canadian company that helps people walk away from their hyundai cars due to illness or job loss.
January 6th, 2009 at 1:25 pm
If you tune into BNN now you will see a guy from “you walk away” being interviewed.
The show is called “The Close” and just had the head dude from the Canadian Homebuilder’s Assoc. saying there is no problema in Canada.
The clip should show up on here http://www.bnn.ca/ within the next hour when it is finished on “live” TV.
January 6th, 2009 at 1:22 pm
The new year re-listing flood has begun! My VOW listings usually come in about 10 to 12 a week, but yesterday alone i recieved 16 new listings with my parameters. I bet we see a flood of listings through Jan and end the month way up from where we started it, since buyers seem to be mostly extinct in this market.
January 6th, 2009 at 1:16 pm
Forgot to mention, bulls and bears are both deluded. They all want things to swing one way for their own benefit.
January 6th, 2009 at 1:15 pm
Realpaul,
“I was just listening to an analyst from RBC Capital who said
” We’re in for a pretty serious downturn, it is going to get a lot worse before we see any recovery.”.
Our own Finance Minister said the same thing this week as did President Obama, just yesterday.
Anyone thinking that real estate is going to start turning up in ‘mid-09′ is just deluded.”
You know what? There were a lot of jokers like Bernanke and Paulson that swore under oath saying things were fine a year ago and raised rates. Now when things are bad, everyone does the opposite. Now who should you believe? Should people who have cash be buying during bad times? We’ll wait and see. I’ll sit on the sidelines and watch this unfold the next 6 months.
January 6th, 2009 at 12:56 pm
I found a website that explains the foreclosure process for those of you who are interested.
http://www.foreclosures.ca/rea.....mbia.lasso
January 6th, 2009 at 12:34 pm
gadwin Says:
…….
As per the latest REBGV stats, what a disaster.
—————
I see no disaster. Not from my POV, at least.
January 6th, 2009 at 12:11 pm
PREDICTION: DETACHED BENCHMARK 2009
JANUARY….$628,421
FEBRUARY…$618,421
MARCH……$598,421
APRIL……$578,421
MAY……..$558,421
JUNE…….$528,421
JULY…….$488,421
AUGUST…..$438,421
SEPTEMBER… SORRY FOLKS,NO ONE TO DO NUMBERS THIS MONTH AS REBGV IS NOW CLOSED FOR BUSINESS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
January 6th, 2009 at 11:58 am
There is a point that the numbers posted by the REBGV etc. reach a quantum leap of UNdeniable truth..ie they get so bad, they simply can’t get spun in the positive mode, no matter how hard they try.
Just because they report the RE stats doesn’t mean they are trying to be upfront and altruistic, they may have no bloody choice BUT to report them . OR, IF they actually had a choice , they may not report them .
I am wondering if the Realtors are brainstroming in behind the scenes and even reaching a consensus to turn down listings…like a DeBeers cartel would purposely restrict supply. There has to be a “critical mass” point whereby too many obvious listings begins to work against them ie scares off buyers (except for lowballing sharks).
Me?
I’ll take the grassroots stats data …more “FOR SALE “signs are going up on all types of Real Estate, and still haven’t seen a single “SOLD” sign. “For Rent” signs are becoming more and more frequent. I will take those “visual picture is worth a thousand words stats” over what the Pros try to sell me/us on.
January 6th, 2009 at 11:56 am
A friend of mine owns a townhouse near Tinseltown and he’s convinced prices will rise 10% in 2009…. apparently he heard it on “the news” (didn’t get the specific source).
Some people are really gullible They’ll believe anything as long as it’s told to them by someone on TV or in the papers. I don’t get how you can reconcile what’s going on in the rest of the world, and I mean EVERYWHERE ELSE EXCEPT VANCOUVER, with the idea that Vancouver’s real estate is on the rise. It’s a sunning example of cognitive dissonance.
People are still drinking the ol’ Olympic koolaid too. I think it’s like I said earlier. Nobody wants to lose money, so they convince themselves that they aren’t. I think we’re still near the top of the downward slope. Prices are dropping but the seller community as a whole aren’t yet in a panic. House price drops are still happening to other people, as it were, not to them.
January 6th, 2009 at 11:42 am
79 john Says:
January 6th, 2009 at 10:48 am
I can tell you right now that the Olympic Village will be a huge success for everyone involved. Everyone wants a piece of the olympics after they’re done so they’ll probably sell the condos on Ebay to rich asians and rich Americans who want to live the olympic dream. Any condos not sold on Ebay will be rented out to wealthy businessmen who need to be close to downtown during the week. I’ll probably buy a few of the condos as investments. This is the boom town of the world
=============================================
Ah John…(aka Bob Rennie)
A-L-W-A-Y-S look forward to your posts.
Seriously now (or am I doing a John?)
Go up to Hizzoner Mayor Gregor and Vision 20/10 crew and see if you can buy one or more Olympic Village condos for below list price…(put in a bunch of weasel-out subject -to’s like “no raise in taxes” etc. ).
Once they see your SUV collection they know they got a sincere(?) purchaser (?) .
Report back.
PS
Ask Gregor if he will be in Mexico during the 2010 Olympics just like he was when the snow clogged the city streets.
January 6th, 2009 at 11:37 am
“You are more than welcome to second-guess the listings numbers. Personally I think they give a decent guide as to how FAST things will correct. The end destination of prices after the bubble fully deflates, however, has always been assured.”
Raw listing numbers are pretty arbitrary, but months of inventory is one of the best leading indicators you can look at because it captures changes in both supply and demand. There’s a pretty consistent 1-3 month lag between MOI and price changes.
Back in October the realtors were still talking about a soft landing or even a recovery, but the MOI spiked up around 16 and sure enough we’ve seen some massive price drops since then. Things like days on market and average/median selling price can get skewed or manipulated, but the MOI number is just the number of sales and listings. Doesn’t matter whether those were re-lists or million+ properties or pre-sales people didn’t complete on, nor does it really matter whether the total number of listings is 5,000 or 10,000 or 20,000, because a lack of sales is just as bad for the market as a surge in listings.
January 6th, 2009 at 11:36 am
So much good stuff on the desk this a.m. heres an excerpt from a research paper I had to read today
“What should be noted regarding Japan’s experience is that the enthusiasm of market participants, together with the inconsistent projection of fundamentals, contributed to a large degree to maintaining temporarily high asset prices at that time. Such enthusiasm is often called euphoria, excessively optimistic but unfounded expectations for the long-term economic performance, lasting for several years before dissipating.”
“It was thus excessive optimism rather than consistent projection of fundamentals that mainly supported temporarily high asset prices.”
So on this point, we are similar. That is, market fundamentals had nothing to do with price rises and the justification given for the boom was usually excessive optimism transmitted by “real estate never goes down” or some other form of delusional thinking.
Does anything here seem familiar. Aren’t the Japanese Rich Asians? Oh Yeah, they are the richest.
January 6th, 2009 at 11:28 am
shades of ’29
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/.....refer=home
January 6th, 2009 at 11:26 am
Crash numbers from Britian, don’t look if your a ‘true believer’
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article8080.html
January 6th, 2009 at 11:19 am
#82 I don’t believe the Dec numbers at all from REBGV look around
http://news.moneycentral.msn.c.....id=9487813
January 6th, 2009 at 11:14 am
2008 May detached benchmark: $771,250
2008 June detached benchmark: $765,654
2008 July detached benchmark: $753,165
2008 August detached benchmark: $737,985
2008 September detached benchmark: $726,331
2008 October detached benchmark: $695,962
2008 November detached benchmark: $666,525
2008 December detached benchmark: $648,421
As per the latest REBGV stats, what a disaster.
January 6th, 2009 at 10:58 am
#78 Where are all the Rich Asians buying into Utah, Beijing and Athens etc. The ‘living the Olympic dream’ you mention is apparently non-existent in any of the cities the Olympic train wreck has crashed into.
January 6th, 2009 at 10:54 am
#74 They’re certainly not rushing the Dec numbers to market are they? Could it be that little lesson in crowd control that the REBGV is trying to exercise?
#76 On the money as allways
I was just listening to an analyst from RBC Capital who said
” We’re in for a pretty serious downturn, it is going to get a lot worse before we see any recovery.”.
Our own Finance Minister saide the same thing this week as did President Obama, just yesterday.
Anyone thinking that real estate is going to start turning up in ‘mid-09′ is just deluded.
Helmut Pasterick looked like he had a gun to his head on Global last night. His body language was telling us how big a lie he was into.
Dave Watts is slopping out the snake oil while the entire industry is falling on it’s ass. Is he perpetrating some kind of real estate PONZI SCHEME, trying to sucker new money in to bail out the old?
You’d think public servants would be more responsible or moral or ethical, no such luck with Dave Watts.
January 6th, 2009 at 10:53 am
To Islander:
told you so wrote: “I have an idea, put an additional income tax on real estate agents and any company related to the RE business.”
I’ve got a better idea: Put an additional tax on economic retards and comment boarders who support such stupid ideas.
————————————————————
Can’t you tell the difference between a fun, spontaneous comment from a serious proposal? I wont even insult you back because I consider life has already punished enough by giving you such limited mental capability.
Are you in RE?
January 6th, 2009 at 10:48 am
I can tell you right now that the Olympic Village will be a huge success for everyone involved. Everyone wants a piece of the olympics after they’re done so they’ll probably sell the condos on Ebay to rich asians and rich Americans who want to live the olympic dream. Any condos not sold on Ebay will be rented out to wealthy businessmen who need to be close to downtown during the week. I’ll probably buy a few of the condos as investments. This is the boom town of the world.
January 6th, 2009 at 10:43 am
By the way, in my opinion, that whole benchmark price thing is way too ripe for manipulation…
What would be the point? It’s not like they can change fundamentals or the economy. Once prices start dropping they need to find a sensible level, if the stats where changed to make them look better or worse it doesn’t change reality. There would be no benefit to altering the stats.
January 6th, 2009 at 9:53 am
jesse
My comments were inspired by how the experts love to play the stats with quaint verbiage especially when things are flushing in spiral fashion downward.
I have duly noted over the various RE cycles the Real Estate boards and Realturd “RE Bible quotes” that they pull out of the bag depending on the current market reality.
An expensive home(one of those $30 million ones ) that sells to “the class of rich who don’t care re price” can seriously skew the numbers they call “benchmark” etc. . They would play that as ” Ooo , see the market is UP ! Time to buy !”
If number of listings decline, ” they ” will use that as inventory is down ….therefore less supply….. thus less supply = demand will rise = prices will rise.
If benchmark price goes down…”oh that is a market correction, that is common…overheated market…but inventory will be pulled off and we can expect demand to exceed supply and prices will rise”.
In their perfect world, both listings, sales and prices rise in sync… then the siren call of ” Buy now or forever be kept out of the market “.
“Plus don’t forget 2010 !”
Round round goes the Realturd spin cycle.
They spin every scenario as a positive… its their job….they are SALESMEN …(it is borderline illegal for them to tell the truth after they get their license in 5 weeks).
PS
The numbers I will watch is how many actually re-new their Realtors license. (Even Bob Rennie’s )
They have access to the real relevant RE stats, no matter how they try to spin it to the rest of us .
January 6th, 2009 at 9:27 am
No-lympics; “It was not to imply that the Church influences the state, but to the contrary, so the State does not influence the Church”
The seperation is not Church vs. State, it is meant to prevent the power of the state being used by the church to influence the spiritual beliefs of the individual.
January 6th, 2009 at 9:22 am
And then there’s this one – Even though December sales were down over 50% year over year, Dave Watt clings desperately for hope to the fact that December sales were up a bit from November.
http://tinyurl.com/9gojyb
January 6th, 2009 at 9:19 am
Some “good news” for the remaining RE bulls in today’s Globe. Royal Lepage says this is a correction, not a crash. And even though they call for Vancouver to experience steeper declines than the rest of the country (further 9%), you’ll be glad to know that this is a “natural cyclical reaction” and certainly not a “U.S.-style collapse”.
I love the semantic games some realtors play.
http://tinyurl.com/7nequc
January 6th, 2009 at 9:07 am
“So what is the difference..its the spread, not necessarily a trophy selling price.”
So which is more important, percentage gains or actual dollar amounts? Typically whichever gives the more palatable answer.
January 6th, 2009 at 9:01 am
“Throw the other “offical” listing data in the garbage.
Only REBGV and other Realturd cult members want to beleive this and have their clients beleive this as well.”
Funny how high months of inventory correlates nicely with price drops. From this we can infer that the proportion of “Type A B or C” sellers does not significantly change. I think what we are seeing is a significant portion of listings are still trying to speculate. The speculation continues all the way down which is why inventory is high with unrealistic prices.
The difference now is Mr. Market isn’t cooperating. Greed and speculation are still in abundant supply only this time it confirms these types weren’t as smart as they thought.
You are more than welcome to second-guess the listings numbers. Personally I think they give a decent guide as to how FAST things will correct. The end destination of prices after the bubble fully deflates, however, has always been assured.
January 6th, 2009 at 8:58 am
# 70 alexcanuck:
Good point…perhaps a 4th category…. ” Type D ”
for innocent victims caught up in circumstances beyond their control. Type “D” has always existed….” Type C ” came to mind more as a recently – evolved owner species produced in bulk.
I will expand further on “Type B”.
Many of these may be retired or near retired…bought their home cheap say less than $100,000 on the West Side…….it peaked at say $1 Million…they may moan they missed the peak selling price, (many people are psychologically fixed on $ 1 Million ) but after the dust settles it simply becomes a relativity game. Unless the prices crash in a mushroom cloud…they will still be ahead.
They may hav envisoned moving to Kelowna…but “Kelowna Housing Armaggedon blog” talks about 70 % crash in Kelowna.
So here is the scenario.
Sell at the Peak here for $ 1 million , Buy at the Peak in Kelowna say for $500,000
Or sell now for $700,000 …buy in Kelowna for $200,000.
(Note: I will use these prices as “examples” for sake of discussion )
Same difference of $500,000 .
So what is the difference..its the spread, not necessarily a trophy selling price.
In fact the spread may be greater AFTER the dust settles.
If we assume that Vancouver areas will continue to be the “relative” ground zero of peak prices…outlying areas and especially those with the most bogus fundamentals may suffer the biggest collapse.
January 6th, 2009 at 7:37 am
No-lympics:
Are marginal owner-occupied, who are one lay-off or unexpected expense away from default, included in your types above? If the economy doesn’t recover strongly and soon, all your categories will see considerable pressure. The perfect storm indeed.
January 6th, 2009 at 7:26 am
Seriously…who gives a sh*t re: the so – called “offical RE Inventory numbers” ?
It’s like Pet Rock inventory and putting on a “Best Before” date.
There is a pool of interested sellers. The ones currently listing ie the ” Type A ” are either dumb or desperate.
The other group ” Type B ” wants to sell but can see the writing on the wall, the market is flatlining , and will pull back for now. Call these sellers potential listers, but the numbers won’t reflect them. Type “B” listings may be able to hold on (ie fishing for the right price ) or may not be able to hold on for too long, but regardless don’t show up in quantifiable numbers.
I continually drive by recently completed condo product, with few signs of life. Its getting easier and easier to identify these specuvestor units. If they haven’t been owner occupied by now , nor rented, they form “Type C” potential listers. This group has either lost value or will be foreclosed on…and many of these will soon burst onto the listing scene.
This is a whole different market, with new fundamentals.
The listing groups are comprised of :
“Type A” + “Type B” + “Type C” = Total Listing
All we see are TYPE “A” listers so far…
Type B is fickle and could burst onto the scene at any time.
This type may be more pragmatic and make an educated guess as to the RE market. Will they or can they wait out another cycle ?
Type “C” could be a Tsunami of listings and very soon.
Throw the other “offical” listing data in the garbage.
Only REBGV and other Realturd cult members want to beleive this and have their clients beleive this as well.
We’ll see who has the last laugh.
January 6th, 2009 at 6:59 am
Fake landlord takes cash from international students
http://tinyurl.com/9opaft
A B.C. condo owner is fighting to get her downtown Vancouver property out of the hands of a convicted criminal who posed as a tenant and leased her suite, then turned around and rented it out to several students from Japan and Korea — while not paying rent to her.
….and so it goes
January 6th, 2009 at 6:46 am
Last nights 6 PM news on Global was funny.
Global commissioned some sort of opinion poll re: the economy.
One gal talked about the Olympics and how they will be an economic generator, attract lots of people etc. (typical wide -eyed naiveness).
I guess there is still some unfrozen kool aid circulating.
Helmut Pastrick was on as well….his economic numbers were absolutely goofy as well. Looking more and more like a sideshow barker.
January 6th, 2009 at 1:02 am
I told you so wrote: “I have an idea, put an additional income tax on real estate agents and any company related to the RE business.”
I’ve got a better idea: Put an additional tax on economic retards and comment boarders who support such stupid ideas.
January 6th, 2009 at 12:25 am
Supraboy,
Have you heard the Chinese byword: “瞎子算命老来好” (the blind fortune teller always predicts that you will be happier when you get elder)?
Just to delay your feeling of the current miserable state and give you a hope in the far future in order to sell you some spiritual comfort. A little bit better than the kool-aid.
January 6th, 2009 at 12:17 am
#60 – please be respectful.
January 5th, 2009 at 11:43 pm
#60 LOL
This is THE BEST joke on this blog, ever!
January 5th, 2009 at 11:38 pm
Mom’s busy watching TV and she doesn’t care.
Real Estate agent once said, “you’re speculating if you’re hoping that prices go down.”
That’s the dumbest thing I’ve heard in my life. I’ll sit and watch what happens the next 3-4 months. Nobody really knows but if I was a betting man, I say at least another 10% downfall in prices in the next 3 months.
January 5th, 2009 at 11:26 pm
“So who should we believe now?”
Well, you’ve got your dad’s opinion, so why don’t you go get mom’s?
January 5th, 2009 at 11:03 pm
Is it fact or is it propaganda? My dad just read the chinese newspaper here and he said Vancouver real estate will turn upwards in mid 2009.
So who should we believe now?
That Chinese newspaper, I think, is a bunch of bull. They’re trying to keep the Chinese in Vancouver upbeat thinking they’ll be richer.
January 5th, 2009 at 10:30 pm
#57 I didn’t realise that this forum was interdimensional.Cool.
January 5th, 2009 at 10:07 pm
Then you and olympics flood your own gibberish on this forum,hey paul you are totally disconected from reality that’s why you bark in response.
January 5th, 2009 at 10:02 pm
This statement from the EL Presidente ( EL REALTARDO GRANDE ) of REBGV Dave Watts makes you want to ask yourself if the biggest concern now is to manage the message.
” Low prices are not the concern as much as the view that prices are falling”.
It would appear the EL PRESIDENTE either can’t control his mouth or has a mouth -brain disconnect or in fact is just a total moron and speaks for treats like a trained dog.
This appeared in the Vanc Sun Dec 5/08 PG A17
Apparently they ( the dipshit realturd community and the developers lackeys)) would prefer we don’t know whats happening. Disinformation and misrepresentation are hard at work. This is exactly why these information exchange forums are so important.
January 5th, 2009 at 9:53 pm
Blueskies,
Those are all excuses other area does not exit in mls system but these three people makes a huge differences same way board states price drop but assessment value goes up because that area is not under their radar.
January 5th, 2009 at 9:42 pm
vancouverboom2, the number is for January 5th 2009. NOT December 2008. http://www.nvcondos.ca/aPage.jsp?aPageId=8
January 5th, 2009 at 9:34 pm
vancouverneverboom2
agent will covers a different area than paulb and rob chipman covers a different area than either of the first two…
January 5th, 2009 at 9:28 pm
December 5,2009
January 5th, 2009 at 9:22 pm
Rado those numbers 13,500 were posted for december,2008 and 9810 is for January 3,2009. http://agentwill.com/weekly-stats/ but yes paul has recently posted new numbers 13,597 for december 5,2008.
January 5th, 2009 at 9:05 pm
Inventory in Greater Vancouver is at 13,597, after year-end expirations. Those expired listings will be back in the market soon.