The bubble has burst!

There are a lot of quotes in the media these days from local developers and politicians with variations on the theme ‘nobody saw the Vancouver housing bust coming‘.  This is surprising when you consider how many blogs we have out there dedicated to the concept that Vancouver house prices got way out of hand and are in for the mother of all corrections.

But lets not blame the experts too much, perhaps the extent of their research was a Google search for the term ‘Vancouver house prices‘ which yields this reassuring CBC article as the first result: Vancouver house prices expected to rise 9 percent in 2008.  If you’re expecting a 9 percent increase in house prices, I suppose a 15% drop from market peak could really catch you off guard.

So this is my ‘told you so‘ moment.  Not that the real estate market would see a sharp correction.  Nope, I certainly wasn’t the only one to predict that. Most of the long-time readers here at vancouvercondo.info made the same prediction, as did many other local bloggers, so that’s no unique feat.  I do believe however, that I was the only one to correctly call the Vancouver Bubble Blog Bubble at the beginning of 2007.  Here’s the updated version of that chart along with my count of local bubble blogs:

1. March 2005: Vancouver Housing Blog – the original, closed in Feb 2007
2. Nov 2005: Rob Chipmans – gets a half point for being moderately bearish
3. June 2006: VancouverCondo.Info – Hey that’s us right here!
4. Oct 2006: Vancouver Unrealestate – Looks to be closing down January 2009
5. Dec 2006: BC Housing -Uncertainbuyer closed down end of 2008
6. Jan 2007: Financial Planning and Personal Sanity -now Housing Analysis
7. March 2007: Condohype – Still disowning the lifestyle
8. Dec 2007: North Vancouver Homes – stats and housing market data
9. Feb 2008: Vancouver Real Estate Anecdote Archive – just as the title says
10. Jan 2008: Fishy Real Estate – FishRE closed down the blog in 2008 Q3
11. Feb 2008: Coco News – shared economic news stories, closed 2008 Q3
12. Feb 2008: Vancouver Housing Crash – last post September 2008

Have I missed your favorite Vancouver housing market blog?  Add it to the Wiki!

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ellery
ellery
11 years ago

This is really sad.

Illegal immigrants are not responsible for the global financial crisis.

"Our civilization in Europe took a thousand years to develop what we have today, the third world players have been around just as long and have chosen violence, mayhem and filth as they chosen medium, "

This level of ignorance and hatred is disgusting, and does not belong here. Change the subject back to finance now please.

realpaul
realpaul
11 years ago

Sidelines:

Was anything I said untrue?

Sidelines
Sidelines
11 years ago

"this thread has taken a really ugly turn"

I could not agree more emphatically. Holy sh*t! I, too, have travelled extensively to 3rd world countries. I saw nothing but people struggling to do their best. How you come to your conclusions conclusions, realpaul, is beyond me, beyond my comprension. It seems some history reading would be helpful here to help gain understanding and context. I'm not kidding. Wow. I have no time to get into it all – and this is not the place. Let's just talk about RE, I suppose. Having said that, may all those of us who witness (or read) intolerence remember to speak out. It's totally unacceptable – as is remaining silent in the face of it.

Anonymous
Anonymous
11 years ago

"I have traveled extensively and have come to the conclusion that peoples in the third world are thier own worst enemies."

this thread has taken a really ugly turn.

Stoxxman
Stoxxman
11 years ago

Mexico has replaced Guatamala, Honduras, and San Salvator as the greatest source of "refugees" in Canada over the past few years.

Unknown it is what life threatening "danger" they face returning to Mexico, but whatever, there are THOUSANDS here thanking you for your generous support.

realpaul
realpaul
11 years ago

NO -LYMPICS: I have traveled extensively and have come to the conclusion that peoples in the third world are thier own worst enemies. They support absolute corruption as normal, make no attempt to improve thier own societies. Exercise extreme tribal, religious, language , geographic, economic and racist wars and systemic violence upon each other and have generally been the master authors of thier own destruction to the point where they have turned thier own countries, homelands and economies into unlivable toilets which now they are trying to escape. IMHO western countries should be putting more pressure on these people to clean up thier own act before springing into political correctness action and allowing the overflow of these malcontents into our country to drain our already scarce resources. Imagine a world where tribes weren't murdering each other, where Islam could decide… Read more »

Brittanny
11 years ago

There are alot of for sale signs popping up here recently in the Fraser Valley.I would predict listings to hit 32,000 in the REBGV by the end of May. Anyone have a prediction?

NO -LYMPICS
NO -LYMPICS
11 years ago

The refugee ( which is in essence a sub group of the immigration total ) question should be based on the given current cirumstances within the potential host country. What is the obligation of any given country to accept these parties , do we have the resources to accept them and what is the impact on the current citizen base(which itself is made up of both immigrant (including past refugees)and native born citizens. We can never accept every legitimate refugee or any other immigrant. There is a limit to that. So, where do we draw the line? IMHO, when times get more diffiult, we have to tighten up and allow less. If not, then we drag this country down to thel owest common denominator and enter into frontier territory and a race to the bottom.. This conflicts with the very… Read more »

ellery
ellery
11 years ago

sidelines, thanks for stepping up to say something. we have quite enough problems without bringing out racists nonsense.

Stoxxman
Stoxxman
11 years ago

Regarding the "problem" of refugees "41,900 refugee claims are now pending in Canada. They take at least a year to resolve and much longer if appealed. In 2005 12,000 people made the cut, implying 3 out of 4 refugee claims are bogus." Lets assume there are 4,200 "refugees" in the lower mainland. Lets further assume 3000 of them are bogus. Welfare pays around $ 600 per month for a single male. Thats $ 1.8 million per month for the scammers. If the bogus "refugee" appeals their deportation they will be here at very least 2 years. The direct cost of these scammers is now $ 43 million. All refugees are provided room and board immediately. Those beds are unavailable for Canadian homeless. But that ain't all. Lets assume 80% of the scammers are working "under the table". Thats 2400 jobs… Read more »

VanLoverBoy
VanLoverBoy
11 years ago

All you doomers need to chill:

http://www.househunting.ca/story.html?id=849817&a

NO -LYMPICS
NO -LYMPICS
11 years ago

VANOC chairman believes buyers will snap up Olympic village condos http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGA… QUOTE: This piece of property … is the tenderloin of real estate left in the city," Mr. Poole said yesterday, while stressing that he was speaking as a veteran real estate developer and not as a spokesman for the Vancouver Olympic Organizing Committee (VANOC). "It's the last remaining piece of waterfront. It's something we would all covet. This is it." =============================================== QUOTE: Many believe that post-Olympic sales of the project's luxury condominiums will not be enough to enable the city to recoup all the money shelled out to finish the village in time, given plummeting real estate prices. Mr. Poole, however, said he thinks the city will do quite well. "As a taxpayer, I am not losing any sleep that the city is going to lose money on this.… Read more »

alexcanuck
alexcanuck
11 years ago

Patriotz: If you claim something is happening, the onus is on you to prove it. Not on the person who claims something isn’t happening. Same argument as tobacco companies used against those nutty health risk alarmists, as Exxon-sponsored "scientists" are using against global warming, as is commonly used by anyone making tons of money in a societally-harmful way. Do you realize the process by which a new food additive is approved? As long as the mouse doesn't die within days, all good to go! Anyway, I agree with most of your posts, but you should really stick to business and economics. It's pretty deep mud everywhere else! There are both real refugee claimants fleeing terrible threats, and bogus system-scammers. Also about 5-6 BILLION people who don't have it as good we do here. Let's take them all!!! At taxpayer expense!!!… Read more »

NO -LYMPICS
NO -LYMPICS
11 years ago

FINANCIAL MELTDOWN The unreality of the 'real' business cycle Not to mention capitalism's 'gale of creative destruction' http://www.theglobeandmail.com//servlet/story/LAC… QUOTE: Testifying recently before a U.S. congressional committee, former Federal Reserve Board chairman Alan Greenspan said the financial meltdown had shattered his "intellectual structure." I am keen to understand what he meant. Since I have had no opportunity to ask him, I have to rely on his memoirs, The Age of Turbulence, for clues. But that book was published in 2007 – before, presumably, his intellectual structure fell apart. In his memoirs, Mr. Greenspan revealed that his favourite economist was Joseph Schumpeter, inventor of the concept of "creative destruction." In his summary of Mr. Schumpeter's thinking, a "market economy will incessantly revitalize itself from within by scrapping old and failing businesses and then reallocating resources to newer, more productive ones." Mr. Greenspan… Read more »

NO -LYMPICS
NO -LYMPICS
11 years ago

Post # 116 This begs the question, where do these people come out with all that money to buy those condos? ———– This type of buyer was somewhat predictable. Not sure if they had the means to purchase, and the so called "discount" was their affordability benchmark. OR …were they "bears" in their own mind….thinking they are great bargain hunters, and need to have bait thrown at them to pounce. This type sems to be the ones that if they hear the word "sale", they react like Pavlov's dog with open wallets, and feel its true, the facts and details be damned. In a declining market, one can predict and define various buyer groups. The aforementioned types would tend to be naive and unsophisticated, with a clear lack of understanding of the normal real estate cycles, but even worse, not… Read more »

macchiato
macchiato
11 years ago

UPDATE: all layoffs confirmed as per company announcements:

Microsoft 5000

Unisys 1300

Hewlett – Packard 25000

Sun Micro systems 6000

patriotz
patriotz
11 years ago

Lily pad: patriotz: You might find this site a good place to start. Well sure, I agree the refugee system needs improving. I have already said so. But one of the biggest problems with the system is that there are too many spurious claimants. They take up too many resources and impair our ability to help genuine claimants. Because the system works so slowly the spurious claimants have an opportunity to marry or have children in Canada to make it more difficult to remove them. If we had a fair and expeditious system the incentive for spurious claimants would be much smaller. Also the fewer resources that are available to investigate claims, the more likely the board members are to give claimants the benefit of the doubt whether genuine or not. It should also go without saying that the prevalence… Read more »

macchiato
macchiato
11 years ago

HPs EDS, Sun and Unisys are all confirmed, thanks for posting the link on the details supraboy, not sure how you thought they were all rumours. MS is the only non-confirmed … but news will come out any day on MS plans. " it is also being rumored that Microsoft is planning to fire 15,000 employees this month; about 17 percent of its workforce. That's a much bigger hit. Server maker and services provider Unisys just announced 1,300 layoffs, about 5 percent of its workforce. Hewlett-Packard announced last fall that as part of its acquisition of services giant Electronic Data Systems, the company would be cutting 25,000 jobs over two years, or about 7 percent of its global workforce; you can bet a lot of those job cuts have nothing to do with EDS, but this way HP only has… Read more »

macchiato
macchiato
11 years ago

Sun Microsystems: 6000 is already in motion …. this was announced last month by Sun.

Supraboy
Supraboy
11 years ago

#89

"Let me get this straight

Sale lasted 2 1/2 hours, sold 55 units:

Did anyone even kick the tires ?

PS Supraboy: do you think they got a bargain?"

As much of an a** that I am here, I think those people are idiots buying those junk units by Onni. The granite they used on the kitchen tops aren't even half inch thick.

This begs the question, where do these people come out with all that money to buy those condos?

Supraboy
Supraboy
11 years ago

"more digging more tech layoff news

http://www.itjungle.com/tfh/tfh011209-story02.htm

Microsoft 15000

Unisys 1300

Hewlett – Packard 25000

Sun Micro systems 6000"

RealPaul, those are only rumors, don't read too much into it till it happens.

Anonymous
Anonymous
11 years ago

"June 2006: VancouverCondo.Info – Hey that’s us right here!"

I believe VancouverCondo.info start around Jan or Feb,2006 Nope?

Lily pad
Lily pad
11 years ago

patriotz: You might find this site a good place to start.

http://www.cpj.ca/content/safety-and-dignity-refu

There is so much criticism of the immigration system it's not even funny.

patriotz
patriotz
11 years ago

Evidence, please?

You have to show us evidence of genuine claimants being refused. If you claim something is happening, the onus is on you to prove it. Not on the person who claims something isn't happening.

Do you have any examples of rejected refugee claimants facing retribution after being returned to their country of origin?

realpaul
realpaul
11 years ago

BC personal banruptcies 'skyrocket', hmmmm that can't be good for buisness

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/real-estate/