The bubble has burst!

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136 Responses to “The bubble has burst!”

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  1. 100
  2. patriotz Says:

    Stoxxman:
    41,900 refugee claims are now pending in Canada…In 2005 12,000 people made the cut

    This is a MAJOR problem

    In other words, the pending refugee claimants amount to just over one tenth of one percent of the Canadian population, and the accepted claims each year amount to .04% of the Canadian population.

    Compare that to about 200,000 legal immigrants accepted each year.

    If you think that’s a major problem, why don’t you ask your role models in the Reform party to do something about it. They’re running the country now you know.

    There is also another solution to employers using unskilled and/or illegal workers to undercut the wages of skilled workers. It’s called “unions”.

    Current score: 3
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  3. 99
  4. realpaul Says:

    observer:

    I think you’re on the right track, both the tech bubble bust reflation and the real estate bubble inflation were coordinated by G-7 governments in what is now being referred to as “the failed experiment”. It is now looking highly likely that a global coordinated deflation is being used to reset asset and commodity prices. Sort of a ’setting the clock back’ without having to apply any of the basic economic principals. IMHO the superinflationary effects of juicing the world with excess low intrest cash will just create another bubble. It’s just a matter of time. Personally I think it will be an infrastructure bubble, that should be good for commodities.

    Meanwhile, all thats just idle speculation. I see that two of the worlds smartest economies are projecting contraction of 5% GDP over the course of 2009. Our government is telling us that Canada will contract only 1.3% . I’m going to side with the smart guys.

    http://www.google.com/hostedne.....wD95RC3N00

    Current score: 1
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  5. 98
  6. observer Says:

    Had a bit of a problem posting for some reason so I used a different name for post 96.

    Current score: 1
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  7. 97
  8. testingobserver Says:

    “And a global asset bubble like the housing bubble can only happen with the connivance of governments and central banks, which is a form of central planning in itself.”

    What you say makes a lot of sense. But if you listen to what economists say, and surely they know a little something about this, they keep on arguing for lower interest rates and more credit. Most people in their gut know this isn’t right, but how does one argue with nobel prize winners, and how does one ignore that 4.25% mortgage rate and friends/family/baristas urging/ridiculing you to buy at nonsensical prices?

    I think the discrepancy is in what the objective is. Most economists measure progress on the basis of a few narrow indicators like GDP and employment and their whole theories are meant to improve performance on these indicators, which may or may not be correct.

    For example, I read this from somewhere: if you and your neighbor pay each other $100 to dig up a hole and then cover it up, the economy benefits because two jobs were created and GDP increased by $200. The government benefits from the taxes collected. Everyone is happy. So if lowering interest rates and enough credit allows people to do this, then that is good economic policy.

    But of course this is ridiculous because digging up the hole and covering it is not a valuable economic activity in any reasonable sense. So where is the flaw in the economists’ analysis?

    You could say this is fine because then if your economy is based on digging and covering up holes, eventually it collapses and people have to switch to growing food for instance or else everyone starves. In the meantime, many people have to stave before people learn the lesson because they don’t listen to reason, but they listen to hype and greed.

    Paul Krugman refers to economics as a dismal science. I think it will remain that way until it can suggest good policy which will prevent people from learning the lessons the hard way over and over again.

    One major flaw I see right away is that most economists only seem to only care about GDP and employment. For instance, had they also considered the net worth of its citizens as something to monitor, they might have realized giving out too much easy credit might increase GDP and employment but only by creating a nation of consumers in debt.

    So it seems to me their theories are incomplete in what they are trying to achieve and model.

    Another problem is the practice in accounting of including assets whose price depends on a market price. Some mechanism needs to be introduced whereby such assets are flagged and their role in determining net worth and further borrowing is only considered with a diminished role. Not sure exactly how, but surely this is something they should be thinking about if they want to prevent the bubble/crash cycle.

    Maybe the right thing to do is to only ever value an asset at the average of its estimated fundamental price and its current market price as standard accounting practice so when it comes to determining net worth or further borrowing, the bubble doesn’t feed itself as much.

    Current score: 6
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  9. 96
  10. observer Says:

    patriotz said: And a global asset bubble like the housing bubble can only happen with the connivance of governments and central banks, which is a form of central planning in itself.

    What you say makes a lot of sense. But if you listen to what economists say, and surely they know a little something about this, they keep on arguing for lower interest rates and more credit. Most people in their gut know this isn’t right, but how does one argue with nobel prize winners, and how does one ignore that 4.25% mortgage rate and friends/family/baristas urging/ridiculing you to buy at nonsensical prices?

    I think the discrepancy is in what the objective is. Most economists measure progress on the basis of a few narrow indicators like GDP and employment and their whole theories are meant to improve performance on these indicators, which may or may not be correct.

    For example, I read this from somewhere: if you and your neighbor pay each other $100 to dig up a hole and then cover it up, the economy benefits because two jobs were created and GDP increased by $200. The government benefits from the taxes collected. Everyone is happy. So if lowering interest rates and enough credit allows people to do this, then that is good economic policy.

    But of course this is ridiculous because digging up the hole and covering it is not a valuable economic activity in any reasonable sense. So where is the flaw in the economists’ analysis?

    You could say this is fine because then if your economy is based on digging and covering up holes, eventually it collapses and people have to switch to growing food for instance or else everyone starves. In the meantime, many people have to stave before people learn the lesson because they don’t listen to reason, but they listen to hype and greed.

    Paul Krugman refers to economics as a dismal science. I think it will remain that way until it can suggest good policy which will prevent people from learning the lessons the hard way over and over again.

    The major flaw I see is that most economists only seem to only care about GDP and employment. For instance, had they also considered the net worth of its citizens as something to monitor, they might have realized giving out too much easy credit might increase GDP and employment but only by creating a nation of consumers in debt.

    So it seems to me their theories are incomplete in what they are trying to achieve and model.

    Another problem is the practice in accounting of including assets whose price depends on a market price. Some mechanism needs to be introduced whereby such assets are flagged and their role in determining net worth and further borrowing is only considered with a diminished role. Not sure exactly how, but surely this is something they should be thinking about if they want to prevent the bubble/crash cycle.

    Maybe the right thing to do is to only ever value an asset at the average of its estimated fundamental price and its current market price as standard accounting practice so when it comes to determining net worth or further borrowing, the bubble doesn’t feed itself as much.

    Current score: 0
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  11. 95
  12. realpaul Says:

    on an earlier string there was some questions going back and forth about capital gains tax emeptions and holding periods on new construction. No one seemed to know the ‘real deal’. I hope this helps.

    http://www.cra-arc.gc.ca/E/pub.....#P92_14422

    Current score: 0
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  13. 94
  14. NO -LYMPICS Says:

    Post 83 realpaul

    It will be interesting to watch.

    Myself, I am becoming conditioned to cringe when the word “Olympics” is mentioned.

    There has NOT been any Olympics that have made a profit. People mention that LA Olympics in 1984 did . However they were only profitable(or is it broke even?) because they already had much of the infrastructure they needed. …..plus they really went big time with corporate sponsorship. That 1984 Olympics alleged success probably sucked in a lot of future “Olympic sucker” hosts.

    I knew the Olympics would lose money, but the shite that hit the fan for COV is truly unbelievable.

    Wouldn’t be surprised if we see lots of Olympic event tickets show up for sale…and in the next few months my guess is we will see hotels etc. crying the “2010 blues” with cancelled reservations or lack thereof. Didn’t VANOC put a lock on a lot of local hotel rooms?

    2010 could easily become the greatest Olympic bust in history.

    Current score: 0
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  15. 93
  16. realpaul Says:

    realpaul:

    sorry thats 1000 ( one thousand jobs) at UAL

    Current score: 0
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  17. 92
  18. realpaul Says:

    unemployment climbs for 11th straight month in Britian, now over 2 million

    http://news.sky.com/skynews/Ho....._Due_Later

    United Airlines cuts an additional 100 jobs on top of the previous 1500 layoffs in the 3rd quarter ‘08.

    http://www.wcpo.com/business/s.....OV8UA.cspx

    Current score: 0
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  19. 91
  20. NO -LYMPICS Says:

    Did anyone catch the Global TV 6 PM news?

    Old Jack Poole’s nose must be growing in a delayed reaction.

    Feels these units will be snapped by groups like Pension Funds ?

    The standard kool – aid mantra is this is the last prime waterfront real estate left ?

    Propoganda in overdrive.

    Sad that a guy once in the same business has either gone senile or been forced to lie.

    Current score: 3
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  21. 90
  22. cbc source Says:

    Games tainted: organizers
    The City of Vancouver planned to sell some of the 1,100 condos following the Olympics to recoup its investment, but the worldwide recession has caused housing prices to drop.

    While the Vancouver Organizing Committee, known as VANOC, has repeatedly said the village’s problems rest with the municipality, its executive vice-president in charge of marketing and sponsorship acknowledged Tuesday that the problems are tainting the Games as a whole.

    “When you hear the words Olympic bailout, people assume that these are costs that are being spent because of the Games, which is simply not the case,” Dave Cobb maintained.

    “If the village, for example, … makes $200 million, I don’t think people are going to be saying that’s Olympic profit and contributing it to us.”

    Current score: 0
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  23. 89
  24. NO -LYMPICS Says:

    Richmond News :

    Flo ignites fire sale
    Buyers camp out for condo liquidation

    http://www.canada.com/richmond.....1d6159e34b

    QUOTE:
    The sale didn’t begin until 5 p.m. Monday. At 1 p.m., a 25-strong line was snaking along the sidewalk as sales staff hurriedly arranged tables and ropes next to patio heaters, where they expected the throng to gather.

    By 5 p.m., more than 100 people were eagerly waiting their turn to snap up a $360,000 bargain.

    First in the lineup was a tired-looking Zena Zuo and her parents, all from Vancouver.

    “I’ve been here since 9:30 p.m. last night (Monday) with my parents,” she laughed.

    She set up folding chairs to spend the night in, but ended up sleeping in her car.

    “It was too cold to stay outside. But our chairs were there to keep our place. I think it’s worth it.”

    The man sitting second in line, huddled in a blanket, arrived Sunday night five minutes after Zuo. “I’m hoping to get a good deal,” he said.

    Farther down the line, a trio of realtors was standing in line on behalf of clients.

    “We need the business,” Jeanette Vetter, of Dexter Associates Realty, said.

    “But I didn’t realize it was going to be this cold. It’s not that uncommon for us to do this, though.”

    Shortly after 7:30 p.m., all 55 apartments had been sold.

    ============================
    So:

    Let me get this straight

    Sale lasted 2 1/2 hours, sold 55 units:

    Did anyone even kick the tires ?

    PS Supraboy: do you think they got a bargain?

    Current score: 7
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  25. 88
  26. truthin'advertising Says:

    !0,000 more lay offs

    BT Group [BT 18.79 -0.19 (-1%) ], the UK telecommunications firm, will cut 10,000 jobs, or 6.3% of its global work force, inthe first quarter of 2009.

    These are just the tech job losses that don’t make it into our local rags, apparently finance, mortgages etc are also being decimated.

    We all know that fisheries , forestry and mining jobs numbers are getting bleaker by the day. have our local papers just gotten bored with the fate of these poor schmucks?

    Do you know of any labour issues that aren’t getting reported. Who got laid off in your buisness recently?

    Go Go Olympics, I guess it’s more important to keep us gleefull and smiling like idiots.

    Current score: 1
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  27. 87
  28. realpaul Says:

    1700 layoff at Advanced Micro Devices confirmed along with 20% paycuts

    http://www.theinquirer.net/inq.....ts-layoffs

    Current score: 0
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  29. 86
  30. realpaul Says:

    Intel lays off 6000

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....ology/home

    Current score: 0
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  31. 85
  32. realpaul Says:

    400 more layoffs in western canada

    http://business.theglobeandmai.....iness/home

    Current score: 0
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  33. 84
  34. shitsinthefan Says:

    COV has no lending facility lined up. It has to continue to fund project out of city revenue through Feb. Seeks ‘less risky’ CDN lender. Fortress wn’t extend it’s original loan amount. It just gets better by the day. LOLOLOLOLOLOL

    http://www.vancouversun.com/Va.....story.html

    Current score: 1
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  35. 83
  36. realpaul Says:

    NO -LYMPICS:

    I thought you’d like this article

    Q-if all these Brits ( read europeans& asians , aussies, yanks etc generally are going through a major downturn, losing savings, investments and mass declines in house prices, not to mention the BP going down the toilet, what will be the incentive for them to come to vanc for the olympics? If thier broke, even a free ticket into an event won’t be worth the paper it’s printed on if they can’t afford to travel. I think there will be an avalanche of tickets on EBAY. Who’s gonna buy them that s the question

    http://www.vancouversun.com//O.....story.html

    Current score: 1
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  37. 82
  38. realpaul Says:

    Stoxxman:

    The vacumn created would suck the moisture out of the wood and still fuck up the drywall bigtime and the tape would peel off anyway. The bldg would have to be heated if sealed in the way you suggest , I theeeeenk.

    Current score: 2
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  39. 81
  40. markx Says:

    Back to the topic: The blogging industry is in a crisis and desperately need a bailout! I think pope and most posters here agree that VCI should be consider “too big to fail”. Let’s jump on the Olympic bailout wagon.

    Current score: 7
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  41. 80
  42. realpaul Says:

    ted:

    must have ‘clicked ‘ on the wrong artice. i hope this is the current one.

    http://www.nationalpost.com/re.....id=1178109

    while looking for this I see that Nortel may be moving towards Chapter 9 bankruptcy which will wipe out the company standard pensions of current and past employees and reduce benefits to all, eliminating some. what a mess.

    http://www.ottawacitizen.com/L.....story.html

    Ted, I really think that a lot of people are walking around in a daze and this information has to be diseminated to the general public. The press isn’t interested, there are people still buying condos and then ending up on the news yapping about how unfair it is that the market has ’suddenly’ gone down. We hear stories about people getting screwed everyday it seems. I have allways thought that people should be better informed but have never taken the time to say so, until now.

    It may be that many people choose not to keep themselves informed but I really think there is a great deal of mis information that should be ‘outed’ The unemployment crash is at the nexus of the ongoing real estate crash and if people get to understand how many people are losing thier jobs every day , then maybe they would understand the corelation between jobs and a crashing real estate market.

    I hear on the TV from the bitches , sluts and liars of the real estate biz that everything is OK and unfortunatley people are still getting sucked. If VCI was mandatory reading we would have a lot fewer suckers. I don’t post job loss figures because I enjoy seeing people lose thier jobs. I hate to see good people getting suckered by the likes of the villians oft mentioned on this forum.

    Thanks for bringing my oversight to my attention though.

    Current score: 6
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  43. 79
  44. Boombust Says:

    What I find quite interesting nowadays, is how “quiet” people are in workplaces and in social settings about the housing downturn. Interestingly enough, the topic is rarely even mentioned.

    ESPECIALLY the people who have owned for awhile. They were cooing with delight when things were on the way up, but now? SSShhh!

    Current score: 17
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  45. 78
  46. Stoxxman Says:

    No Glass = No Mas

    The Millenieum PM let slip about the non appearance of the Korean glass. Look around that site and there are holes EVERYWHERE.

    I have absolutely NO IDEA how to finish a hirise when you DON’T have a building envelope completed first. Are you REALLY going to send in the boarders and tapers when the interior is completely filled with moisture and open to the elements?

    Only other alternative is to board and seal every opening then ripping it out when the glass arrives.

    Current score: 4
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  47. 77
  48. NO -LYMPICS Says:

    2 Stoxxman Says:

    January 21st, 2009 at 3:55 pm
    Sarting price in the 2 buildings that make up Millenieum Water 4 was $ 1.1m with the penthouses going for $ 5.4m.

    I’m STILL wondering how the hell the inside work can be proceeding. Where the fork is all the glass? Top 2 floors on MW 4 are boarded over and there isn’t a completely sealed envelope on that site yet.
    ==============================================

    Simple:
    Whenever you get Gov’t at any level involved in something like this , it will end up a Royal f*ck- up

    However :
    …..if its now a contingency plan based on a drop dead deadline you have a SUPER SIZED Royal f*ck -up in the making .

    Current score: 1
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  49. 76
  50. Sidelines Says:

    Piddlesbby:

    “This is historical fact, no need to provide proof on this blog.”

    How about this: you’re wrong, no need to provide proof on this blog.

    Whew, this kind of debating’s easy! Weee!!

    Current score: 6
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  51. 75
  52. nobody!!!!! Says:

    ergopolis: Market Watch main page is green on the top and on the right,links are also green.Is there any lesson for bears to learn? I think Obama is a president? Who woulda hava thinka of it i mean if he is teaching some lesson through the green headlines?.What was topic for this thread again?.Oh yeah,Nobody saw it coming.

    Did You?

    Current score: -9
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  53. 74
  54. NO -LYMPICS Says:

    Man:

    You have to think the Food Banks must be getting overwhelmed by now.

    I wonder how they are coping ?

    Current score: 4
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  55. 73
  56. exx Says:

    My co-worker finally got his first offer. He listed in August for exactly his assessed value, and has since reduced to 18% below assessment. The offer came in 22% below his asking price, so he immediately rejected it. The same person then followed up with an offer 14% below asking. Still, he rejected it.

    Part of me thinks he should’ve tried to negotiate the 14% below down to 10% and taken it. At 10% he’ll still make a 50% return! But instead he’s upset that he could’ve had a 100% return had he sold earlier this year (some of his neighbors sold in Spring for his original asking price). Good for his neighbors, but seriously sucks for those that bought and are now watching my co-worker sell his unit for a huge discount.

    Now he’s talking about moving back in to the property if he can’t sell it in the next couple of months. Human psychology is so fascinating. I remember at his original list price he would’ve refused an offer 3% below! Now after many reductions he’s willing to accept 7% below.

    Hopefully he gets an offer that fits his criteria and gets it sold, otherwise 2 months from now I can see him reducing it another 10%… rinse and repeat..

    Current score: 21
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  57. 72
  58. Stoxxman Says:

    Sarting price in the 2 buildings that make up Millenieum Water 4 was $ 1.1m with the penthouses going for $ 5.4m.

    I’m STILL wondering how the hell the inside work can be proceeding. Where the fork is all the glass? Top 2 floors on MW 4 are boarded over and there isn’t a completely sealed envelope on that site yet.

    Current score: 1
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  59. 71
  60. Bubble Lad Says:

    “Olympic mausoluem” – that’s a great mental image. Fits well with the overwhelming Stalinist feeling of the huge, featureless complex.

    Current score: -1
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  61. 70
  62. NO -LYMPICS Says:

    Re Millenium:

    If not mistaken all the cheaper units were sold, leaving the more expensive units UNsold.

    If they couldn’t sell the more expensive Millenium “Olympic Village” condos THEN, before the crash..what do they think will happen now?

    Do they have a Plan B to cut the overhead , cut back on the frills, and perhaps cater to the mainstream clientele? .
    —-Or could they if they wanted to , but they still insist that Wealthy buyers will crawl out from under a gold -plated rock?

    Even the odd rich “sucker” won’t feel comfortable living in a 90 % vacant “Olympic” mausoluem and paying the lions share of the strata fees.

    Current score: 1
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  63. 69
  64. Bubble Lad Says:

    Has anyone else heard those strange commercials on the radio by (I think) the BC Business Council – people reading in an unnerving monotone some PR release about how great the BC economy is? Talk about amateur hour.

    Current score: 5
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  65. 68
  66. Bubble Lad Says:

    Sorry about the last post – answered my own question at Condohype.

    Current score: 0
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  67. 67
  68. ted Says:

    Bubble Lad: Wow. weird one. I think some BC politicians should really pre-register for that, they seem to be on the lookout for speculative real estate deals. Why limit taxpayer money only to owe-lympic related construction?

    Current score: 1
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  69. 66
  70. ted Says:

    realpaul: Dude, check dates before posting. That article was from June 17th, 2008. Things are bad enough in the economy with lots of layoffs. No need to exaggerate.

    Current score: 5
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  71. 65
  72. Stoxxman Says:

    Regarding “refugees”

    41,900 refugee claims are now pending in Canada. They take at least a year to resolve and much longer if appealed. In 2005 12,000 people made the cut, implying 3 out of 4 refugee claims are bogus.

    http://www.irb-cisr.gc.ca/en/m.....acts_e.htm

    This is a MAJOR problem, and one that will become even more outrageous as the economy sewers.

    Current score: 0
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  73. 64
  74. Bubble Lad Says:

    Can someone explain this cryptic website:

    http://www.macbulk.com

    Is this the same as Onni, or some new monster? I hear about three commercials a day for it on the radio.

    Current score: 2
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  75. 63
  76. NO -LYMPICS Says:

    Hey..who said VCI ain’t educational?

    I am learning lots of Espanhole

    Now “hágase humo, vuele de aquí” OK you “idiota, estúpido, tarado”

    Current score: -3
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  77. 62
  78. ted Says:

    Stoxxman:
    the initial breathlessly spewed figure of $ 350m “worth” of condos

    Newly revised figure is $ 150m “worth” of condos.

    Wow! Markets falling faster than I thought! :D

    Current score: 6
    Reply to this comment
  79. 61
  80. realpaul Says:

    Piddlesbby:

    they’ll be joined by 2000 Air Canada workers who got lated off this morning

    http://blog.macleans.ca/2008/0.....#more-2112

    Current score: 1
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  81. 60
  82. Piddlesbby Says:

    Sidelines: “However, as mentioned, you provide no proof to support your controversial allegations.”

    Regarding illegal workers, if you have lived in Vancouver for the past 50 years, illegal workers are what developers have depended on to bring down costs on a project or simply fill the void duing a time of high employment.

    Before the Hispanic workers, most sites had East Asian workers, and before that Asian, and so on and so on. This is historical fact, no need to provide proof on this blog.

    Just ask anyone older than you and they’ll tell ya.

    Current score: 0
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  83. 59
  84. Stoxxman Says:

    The rules for “refugees” in Canada are a joke and that is why when one gets on the system they quickly bring their many friends and family to enjoy the wealth too.

    For example. A BC resident has a 2 week waiting period to receive welfare. Much better to be a “refugee”, you’ll get a cheque instantly, along with free room and board too.

    So. Over time “refugees” dominate the unskilled and semi-skilled construction trades and nobody complains about it when times are good.

    Well times they ain’t so frikkin good. Why are taxpayers still supporting “refugees” whose only purpose here is to take work away from Canadians illegally and scam the system as much as possible before eventually being deported because their “refugee” claims are bogus?

    Current score: 1
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  85. 58
  86. EB Says:

    “That’s an ironic reference to Orwell, given that what may be deceitful here is espousing unfounded conclusions (which some here have no qualms parroting, sadly) regarding Latino refugees and the “threat” they pose to the livelihood of construction workers who work here legally.”

    Orwell was specifically worried about both socialism and the domination of dogmatically “correct” dialog over reality. I’d call it apropos.

    Current score: 2
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  87. 57
  88. shitsinthefan Says:

    realpaul:

    Add this to your collection. United Tech is is layoff mode.

    http://query.nytimes.com/gst/f.....A965958260

    Current score: 2
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  89. 56
  90. realpaul Says:

    Anonymous:

    nobody takes this asshole seriously. he/she/it is obviously a mental masturbator without having ever said anything of any relevance.

    Current score: 2
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  91. 55
  92. realpaul Says:

    more digging more tech layoff news

    http://www.itjungle.com/tfh/tfh011209-story02.html

    Microsoft 15000
    Unisys 1300
    Hewlett – Packard 25000
    Sun Micro systems 6000

    It seems that tech is getting pounded in the lead up to the recession.

    Current score: 4
    Reply to this comment
  93. 54
  94. Anonymous Says:

    “If you don’t like it, beat it kid.”

    Right. the guy who still plays with marvel action figures is calling other people “kid”.

    Current score: 9
    Reply to this comment
  95. 53
  96. Supraboy Says:

    The point I have for you is that you better get used to seeing mexicans and latin americans. They’re immigrating here in waves.
    Better pick up some chinese or spanish or be side swiped by employers.

    Current score: -12
    Reply to this comment
  97. 52
  98. Supraboy Says:

    #27
    “PS . I was by a site on No.#3 and Granville yesterday and the entire drywall crew was Mexician.”

    I got three words for you, hijo de puta!

    Current score: -13
    Reply to this comment
  99. 51
  100. realpaul Says:

    Supraboy:

    as allways Supersillyboy misses the point. Soopie, maybe lay off the constant masturbation.

    Current score: 1
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