Spring 2009 - a bad time to sell real estate in Vancouver?

Waiting for spring 2009

-arit

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179 Responses to “Waiting for spring 2009”

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1 X Anonymous Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 6:27 am

Arit: Those graphics are really bad. God bless you.

Current score: -2
2 X NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 6:33 am

Envelope please…
…and the Golden Globe for ” Picture is worth a thouand words ” goes to

Arit !!!! (of VCI Ltd.)

Arit:
Too Funny:

Current score: 18
3 X Anonymous Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 6:35 am

Don’t quit your day job

Current score: -19
4 X alexcanuck Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 6:54 am

Nicely done, Arit! But where is the final frame, with the multiple “price reduced” stickers?

Current score: 7
5 X NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 7:29 am

SPECUVESTING

Did Speculation Fuel Oil Price Swings?
60 Minutes: Speculation Affected Oil Price Swings More Than Supply And Demand

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories.....7770.shtml

VCI and other Conspiracy Theorists: Pay attention !

A VCI poster had noted a while back a story whereby some fund manager confessed to another party that the many of his colleauges had hit the RE specuvesting bubble “wall” , that golden goose was milked… and needed another cash cow, and that cash cow ended up being specuvesting in OIL.

60 Minutes had it on yesterday.
I provided the link,(above) and you have a choice of video or written transcripts.

I’ll post some nuggets.

WHAT IS FUTURES MARKET?
To understand what happened to the price of oil, you first have to understand the way it’s traded. For years it has been bought and sold on something called the commodities futures market. At the New York Mercantile Exchange, it’s traded alongside cotton and coffee, copper and steel by brokers who buy and sell contracts to deliver those goods at a certain price at some date in the future.

It was created so that farmers could gauge what their unharvested crops would be worth months in advance, so that factories could lock in the best price for raw materials, and airlines could manage their fuel costs. But more than a year ago those markets started to behave erratically. And when oil doubled to more than $147 a barrel, no one was more suspicious than Dan Gilligan.

QUOTE:
(New age specuvesting scam)

“Approximately 60 to 70 percent of the oil contracts in the futures markets are now held by speculative entities. Not by companies that need oil, not by the airlines, not by the oil companies. But by investors that are looking to make money from their speculative positions,” Gilligan explained.

Gilligan said these investors don’t actually take delivery of the oil. “All they do is buy the paper, and hope that they can sell it for more than they paid for it. Before they have to take delivery.”

“They’re trying to make money on the market for oil?” Kroft asked.

“Absolutely,” Gilligan replied. “On the volatility that exists in the market. They make it going up and down.”

QUOTE:
(aka who are these scumbags?)

Asked who was buying this “paper oil,” Masters told Kroft, “The California pension fund. Harvard Endowment. Lots of large institutional investors. And, by the way, other investors, hedge funds, Wall Street trading desks were following right behind them, putting money – sovereign wealth funds were putting money in the futures markets as well. So you had all these investors putting money in the futures markets. And that was driving the price up.”

In a five year period, Masters said the amount of money institutional investors, hedge funds, and the big Wall Street banks had placed in the commodities markets went from $13 billion to $300 billion. Last year, 27 barrels of crude were being traded every day on the New York Mercantile Exchange for every one barrel of oil that was actually being consumed in the United States.

“We talked to the largest physical trader of crude oil. And they told us that compared to the size of the investment inflows – and remember, this is the largest physical crude oil trader in the United States – they said that we are basically a flea on an elephant, that that’s how big these flows were,” Masters remembered.

QUOTE:
(Record gouge/rip-off day)

If anyone had any doubts, they were dispelled a few days after that hearing when the price of oil jumped $25 in a single day. That day was Sept. 22.

Michael Greenberger, a former director of trading for the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal agency that oversees oil futures, says there were no supply disruptions that could have justified such a big increase.

“Did China and India suddenly have gigantic needs for new oil products in a single day? No. Everybody agrees supply-demand could not drive the price up $25, which was a record increase in the price of oil. The price of oil went from somewhere in the 60s to $147 in less than a year. And we were being told, on that run-up, ‘It’s supply-demand, supply-demand, supply-demand,’” Greenberger said.

QUOTE:

(More damning evidence)

“From quarter four of ‘07 until the second quarter of ‘08 the EIA, the Energy Information Administration, said that supply went up, worldwide supply went up. And worldwide demand went down. So you have supply going up and demand going down, which generally means the price is going down,” Masters told Kroft.

“And this was the period of the spike,” Kroft noted.

“This was the period of the spike,” Masters agreed. “So you had the largest price increase in history during a time when actual demand was going down and actual supply was going up during the same period. However, the only thing that makes sense that lifted the price was investor demand.”

(To Be Continued)

Current score: 5
6 X alexcanuck Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 7:54 am

That 60 minutes piece was fairly simplistic. Of course speculation played a part, but it neither started the bubble nor ended it. Peak oil and the economy are more powerful underlying factors. Speculation just exaggerated it, that’s all.
See Barry Ritholtz for more.

Current score: -1
7 X NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 7:55 am

CBS 60 Minutes Specuvesting Scam (continued)

QUOTE:
( “Peak” Oil? Yeah right !!!)

Masters believes the investor demand for commodities, and oil futures in particular, was created on Wall Street by hedge funds and the big Wall Street investment banks like Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Barclays, and J.P. Morgan, who made billions investing hundreds of billions of dollars of their clients’ money.

“The investment banks facilitated it,” Masters said. “You know, they found folks to write papers espousing the benefits of investing in commodities. And then they promoted commodities as a, quote/unquote, ‘asset class.’ Like, you could invest in commodities just like you could in stocks or bonds or anything else, like they were suitable for long-term investment.”

QUOTE:

( Deregulation )

Asked if there is price manipulation going on, Dan Gilligan told Kroft, “I can’t say. And the reason I can’t say it, is because nobody knows. Our federal regulators don’t have access to the data. They don’t know who holds what positions.”

“Why don’t they know?” Kroft asked.

“Because federal law doesn’t give them the jurisdiction to find out,” Gilligan said.

It’s impossible to tell exactly who was buying and selling all those oil contracts because most of the trading is now conducted in secret, with no public scrutiny or government oversight. Over time, the big Wall Street banks were allowed to buy and sell as many oil contracts as they wanted for their clients, circumventing regulations intended to limit speculation. And in 2000, Congress effectively deregulated the futures market, granting exemptions for complicated derivative investments called oil swaps, as well as electronic trading on private exchanges.

QUOTE:
(Enron Rises like Dracula)

(CBS) “Who was responsible for deregulating the oil future market?” Kroft asked Michael Greenberger.

“You’d have to say Enron,” he replied. “This was something they desperately wanted, and they got.”

Greenberger, who wanted more regulation while he was at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, not less, says it all happened when Enron was the seventh largest corporation in the United States. “This was when Enron was riding high. And what Enron wanted, Enron got.”

Asked why they wanted a deregulated market in oil futures, Greenberger said, “Because they wanted to establish their own little energy futures exchange through computerized trading. They knew that if they could get this trading engine established without the controls that had been placed on speculators, they would have the ability to drive the price of energy products in any way they wanted to take it.”

“When Enron failed, we learned that Enron, and its conspirators who used their trading engine, were able to drive the price of electricity up, some say, by as much as 300 percent on the West Coast,” he added.

“Is the same thing going on right now in the oil business?” Kroft asked.

“Every Enron trader, who knew how to do these manipulations, became the most valuable employee on Wall Street,” Greenberger said.

QUOTE:
(The fat lady sings)

But some of them may now be looking for work. The oil bubble began to deflate early last fall when Congress threatened new regulations and federal agencies announced they were beginning major investigations. It finally popped with the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and the near collapse of AIG, who were both heavily invested in the oil markets. With hedge funds and investment houses facing margin calls, the speculators headed for the exits.

“From July 15th until the end of November, roughly $70 billion came out of commodities futures from these index funds,” Masters explained. “In fact, gasoline demand went down by roughly five percent over that same period of time. Yet the price of crude oil dropped more than $100 a barrel. It dropped 75 percent.”

QUOTE:
(How bad was the OIL Specuvesting?)

Last year, 27 barrels of crude were being traded every day on the New York Mercantile Exchange for every one barrel of oil that was actually being consumed in the United States.

( 27 -to- 1 ratio WTF ??? )

======================================================

So, whether it be Olympics,Global Real Estate, OIL…etc. that was a huge bubble created and manipulated behind the scenes in the backrooms which we all heard go poooffff , but leaving an unprecedented mushroom cloud in its wake..

They are all fairly well -integrated as well. Every time one filled- up….one had to sense there was a major scam in behind the scenes.

We need to re-draft International Laws…and re-define “Crimes against Humanity” , to include such blatantly abusive (and borderline criminal ) white – collar crime which had no intent other than to lie cheat steal and wreak havoc, and in such cowardly fashion.

Current score: 7
8 X blueskies Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 8:43 am

NO -LYMPICS:

we know who the “winners” are/were….
who got burnt?
who had the asses handed to them on a platter?
would be interesting to know…….

Current score: 1
9 X blueskies Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 8:44 am

btw arit:

grody graphics

step away from the photoshop making machine…!

Current score: 2
10 X NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 8:59 am

Post # 6:

I read the rebuttal by Ritholz:

All I can say is he must be a Bob Rennie protege’.

He’s using the same BS propoganda since OPEC became a major player.

Look at the team and the players, not re-hash urban myths.

His point #6 borderline ad hominem attack on Mike Masters? What is he implying ?
Ox gored?
Actually, There is nothing better than someone who’s Ox has been gored…whose investments in energy sensitve stocks get compromised by sheer specuvesting greed from these hedge funds. They are the best to expose the chicanery. If Mike Masters Auto and Airline investments collapse, the OIL firms have lost a huge customer base that may never return.

These Oil specuvestors remind me of a haberdasher who shites in his customer’s hat, and expects not only full payment , but a big tip to boot.

If Ritholz was a realtor..he’d be saying Rich Asians will be flooding the BC market right after Chinese New Year.

Current score: 0
11 X paulb Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 9:04 am

LOL! I hope its not quite that bad.

Current score: 0
12 X RJB Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 9:05 am

Western countries don’t produce real goods anymore. We’ve become nations of paper shufflers. Without scams like excessive real estate debt and oil speculation we would have felt the full pain of losing our production capabilities. Thankfully the oil and real estate bubbles were over in a relatively short period of time.

Current score: 6
13 X NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 9:09 am

Blueskies:

who got burnt?

ANSWER:
Burn victims = ( Worlds population ) – ( the hedge fund oil specuvesting profiteers )

who had the asses handed to them on a platter?

ANSWER: I am sure the asses you refer to had a “golden parachute” $$$tuffed up the sphincter/poop -chute.
If they were over water….Shite floats.

The rest of us were , as usual, meat in the grinder.

Current score: -1
14 X vancouverboom2 Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 9:40 am

BOOM2 ASSESSMENTS
Notice of assessments are a result of three different value in comparision for example: 2007,2008,and 2009.Last year CM thought that property values might going to collapse in 2009 assessments notice but results are totally opposite now what?.CM just wanted to keep his words as soon they will release assessments beyond july,2008 those values are already advanced.
BOOM2 INVENTORY
Most of you knew it very well that future inventory has sold out based on their year and months of sales, only five percent rebounds are expected when projects will come to complete by months of year,five percent of 3779 unit would make total of 189 units( approximatley). Resale Inventory in Vancouver Is at 10056 Only.
$1 MILLION HOMES IN VANCOUVER
The largest numbers of $1-million-plus homes were counted in Vancouver (28,532), West Vancouver (10,679), Surrey (3,932), North Vancouver District (2,986), Richmond (1,910), Burnaby (1,886) and Langley Township (1,344).Because hey Vancouver Real Estate Never Go Down.

Current score: -32
15 X gadwin Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 9:49 am

Inventory is going to explode this spring and prices will drop so fast, we’re going to have a real estate apocalypse.

Move over Phoenix, because Vancouver is going to become the biggest real estate meltdown in North America!

Current score: 63
16 X arit Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 10:06 am

gadwin,

I am with you. Vancouver will put the rest on North America to shame. My rudimentary gif might actually be underestimating it…

Best regards

arit

Current score: 34
17 X arit Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 10:07 am

BTW: It’s an animated gif, so you can actually right click it, save it, and mail to you preferred Realtor TM. Just so they know what’s coming their way…

Cheers,

arit

Current score: 11
18 X Anonymous Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 10:14 am

Gadwin,

Vancouver is going to be the biggest meltdown EVER!!!!!!

Its the perfect storm. There is absolutely no hope of Vancouver Real Estate recovering in real dollars.

NONE!!!

Vancouver will be paying off their olympic debt for the next 40 years. Look at Montreal, they just finished paying it off. 35 years of slump.

Current score: 17
19 X NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 10:15 am

Yep..

I can see some guy/gal that looked at their A-S-S-E-S-S-M-E-N-T from last year.., saw the house assessed at say $999, 995..pissed right of it wasn’t $1 Million …..and going to Home Depot with their debit card and spending $ 10,000 on new fixtures including Brass address numbers and granite toilet seat.

Then they call BC Assessment and insist on a new (higher)assessment. Then they say “I am now a Millionaire… My house (aka ATM) make me rich “!!!

These are probably the Rich Asians SupraBoy says will not sell for less…..YET !!!!…while their “round eyes” neighbour takes $800,000 in a collapsing RE market with a shite- eating grin on their faces as the U – Haul leaves for Kelowna.

Current score: 0
20 X Spectrum Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 10:19 am

Love the graphic, sending it to people that plan to buy or think the market is going to turn positive in the spring.

Current score: 10
21 X Tony Danza Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 10:23 am

Arit can you add a frame with vancouverboom2/satv/time etc jumping from one of the high rises? That would be sweet.

Current score: 11
22 X NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 10:34 am

VancouverBoom2 (aka legpuller)

I posted this yesterday

QUOTE:

Landcor Data Corporation, which analyzed the region’s property assessments, still found 54,183 homes in Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley top the $1-million assessment mark—an increase of 1.5 per cent from a year ago.

The increase is the result of construction of new seven-figure homes as well as renovation of existing homes that increased their value, Landcor president Rudy Nielsen said.

It’s a modest change compared to a year ago, when the number of millionaire properties soared nearly 50 per cent as regional real estate prices were still rocketing towards their peak.

The largest numbers of $1-million-plus homes were counted in Vancouver (28,532), West Vancouver (10,679), Surrey (3,932), North Vancouver District (2,986), Richmond (1,910), Burnaby (1,886) and Langley Township (1,344).

======================================================

NOTE the REPORT:
” It’s a modest change compared to a year ago, when the number of millionaire properties soared nearly 50 per cent as regional real estate prices were still rocketing towards their peak.”

It clearly states 50% or HALF the “Millionaire” properties were created over a year ago (ie in a relatively short time period).

It’s fair to predict most of these nouveau riche’ will have tipped BELOW $1 Million as we speak, as well as many of the others that were already at $1 Million plus before this latest 50% joined the ” Millionaires Club “.

” Poof” goes the House/ATM.

Current score: 1
23 X questionmark Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 10:45 am

vancouverboom2: are you retarded? I don’t mean to be insulting, if you have a learning disability I think its good that you’re able to operate a computer, but its very confusing that you keep posting barely understandable comments about assessments and prices never going down. Our market is crashing bad and everyone but you seems to know it.

I know its shocking that Vancouver house prices have dropped by over $100,000 in just 6 months, but its time to face reality man. House prices in Vancouver are crashing bad and have a long way to go yet.

Closing your eyes and plugging your ears doesn’t change reality, it just means you don’t know whats going on.

Current score: 42
24 X scullboy Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 11:24 am

Questionmark:

Dude, you’re wasting your time. VB2 isn’t a bull, he’s a poo-flinging monkey that somehow escaped the testing facility (and plainly they were testing something nasty), found refuge in an office with a computer and has been flinging his poo all over VCI ever since. He doesn’t understand anything you tell him and…well… obviously he doesn’t really get English either.

Remember that saying about an infinite number of monkeys in front of an infinite number f typewriters producing the works of shakespeare?

VB2 is the exact opposite of that scenario. I used to try insulting his mom with extremely graphic descriptions of her night time occupation, but that just annoyed some of the real posters here.

Since he’ll never go away, and he’ll never change his tune, you just have to either ignore him, or consider him to be the unrestricted id of the local RE owners, too greedy and stupid to understand cold hard reality.

Current score: 21
25 X squidly77 Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 11:32 am

vancouver now down $122,900..plunge o metre

Current score: 12
26 X MrBear Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 11:36 am

scullboy: Some decorum, please. Poo flinging monkeys resent being compared to inarticulate trolls.

Current score: 12
27 X NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 11:46 am

Scullboy :

VB2 is the exact opposite of that scenario. I used to try insulting his mom with extremely graphic descriptions of her night time occupation,(=_____________?) but that just annoyed some of the real posters here.

REQUEST: Please fill in blank.

P.S.
Are we talking graveyard shift worker at Surrey Tim Hortons or that Telephone solicitor from the call -center in Mumbai ?

Current score: -1
28 X alexcanuck Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 11:55 am

NO -LYMPICS:
No-lympics:
Have you read any of Barry Ritholtz before? Because he is anything but a boom-booster as you seem to think. He is one of the few who did call the bust we are currently in, he also called that oil was going to spike like it did BEFORE it took off. You may not like the way speculators can affect the market and the huge damage done along the way, I certainly don’t like it, nor do I think capital should be allowed to run amok the way it does, but to try to deny the reality of how the world works can be very detrimental to your personal financial health.

Barry is well worth taking seriously. I like your rants, don’t stop, but do try to stay grounded as well. You seem to imply that peak oil, the worldwide credit crunch and recession are irrelevant factors, and to believe that takes a stunning amount of faith, the faith normally seen only in Vancouver RE specuvestors. Faith in the opposite direction, of course, but faith nonetheless.

Current score: 4
29 X realpaul Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 12:35 pm

squidly77:

Arit, great flames

unemployment figure show the situation muich worse in the US than is being touted. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to extrapolate these numbers onto the CDN labour scene

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm

And BTW anonymous there are over 200K leaking condos in Vanc, they were all built to code. You are being hornswaggled with the same info/BS from COV that the media has bizarrly left unchallenged all this years. They don’t want to accept any liability for having designed, engineered and inspected these structures.

You’re running around with your hair on fire when the real enemy is your elected representative. Look Kiddo, as builders we submit plans to city hall they are either code or not, it’s the city that demands the type of design and materials used, if you don’t know that then you shouldn’t think you’re qualified to voice an opinion.

The CONDOS LEAKED BECAUSE THE CITY KNEW THEY WOULD. Figure that out if you can. I think it was input from union orgs that were trying to build obselesence into construction projects to make work for thier members.

Current score: 8
30 X richard1 Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 12:40 pm

Need $458 million? sure, just change the city charter

this is so sad.

Current score: 6
31 X Anonymous Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 12:43 pm

realpaul: As long as you can sleep at night that’s the main thing. I’d rather pay $2,000 for the olympics than $70,000 for an assessment on one of your leaky condos. Figure it out.

Sounds like you have rationalized away any responsibility a long time ago and the more you tell yourself you are an honourable guy the more you believe it. Well, not everyone thinks the way you do.

It’s just like the city council who are rationalizing away their olympic spending.

Current score: 0
32 X NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 12:48 pm

Alexcanuck

As I said , I read the link…

I never said Peak oil, the worldwide credit crunch or recession were irrelevant, per se, in fact these variables are often intertwined.

Peak Oil? yes it exist …..but when?
There is “X” amount of oil on this planet. How much? Who really knows? I don’t think anyone does…but it is a DeBeer- like cartel. Sometimes they get greedy and there is a major backwash in the economy.

Credit Crunch? the evidence suggests a variety of massive ponzi schemes throughout the world that denied the fact these houses of cards always collapse. This latest one on a global scale even sucked in many of the so called smarter and bigger players into the same black hole.

Recession(see above)

My cynicism goes waaaaaay back in the early 1980’s…the huge RE bust… reading “LIARS POKER”……scared money from Hong Kong……the Dot.com bomb in the 1990’s ..and seeing so much development at a pace previously unheard of.

This latest was simply a broken record no- one seemed to see as a re-issue/ sequel of history.

60 Minutes feature = simplistic?
Well they say if you use Occam’s Razor methodology to tie the supposedly loose ends together, it becomes the more probable conclusion.

I think 60 Minutes does that and quite well. I don’t think Ritholtz gets it.

PS

FYI: they are not “rants”, but worthy candidates for future Pulitzer /Nobel prizes dammit !!!

Current score: 0
33 X Anonymous Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 12:58 pm

realpaul: So the builders are innocent angels.

Current score: 0
34 X wolfey Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 1:09 pm

anybody here from John?

You know the guy with SUVs and Van condos guy. He believes the beaches here are better than the ones’ is california ie Venice, Hermosa Beach, Manhattan Beach. They have year round usage we have 2 months tops

Current score: -3
35 X NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 1:20 pm

Re COV and Millenium deal

Anyone catch the news afew minutes ago ?

Just heard that the Mayor Gregor had a press conference.

Details :
–won’t be asking the Feds for a bailout(Translation = the COV probably asked the Feds and were told to F*ck – off).

– will be going to the Province of B.C. for “INdirect” assistance

In essence they are requesting permission to amend the City Charter so that they can borrow funds directly ( which implies that they will not use the only option normally available to them ie holding a referendum and seeking voter approval . Obviously they know what the Voters answer will likley be (Hint: see Feds answer above aka F*ck – Off)

Conclusion…if this is true, and the details will undoubtedly be forthcoming soon,… what I read into this is Fortress Group is either toast, or won’t cough up any more funds….and the City of Vancouver is seriously H-O-O-P-E-D !

The very fact that such powers exist to actually limit a Local Gov’ts powers to borrow money above and beyond the annual budget WITHOUT direct Voter approval , and now Mayor Gregor and crew wants this “Voter protection” amended …..should concern each and every Vancouver citizen.

In essence, the writing on the wall looks fiscally pornographic. This will get U-G-L-Y .

Watch the shite hit the fan….. RE collapse and otherwise.

PS
Supraboy…tell you and your familes Rich Asian friends
to bail now !!!

Current score: 8
36 X Anonymous Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 1:25 pm

there is no way vancouverboom2 is serious.
He/She is just a disturbed freak who thinks saying really dumb things on the internet all day is fun. it probably doesn’t even live in vancouver it just mimicks what it reads others writing.

Current score: 2
37 X Supraboy Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 1:27 pm

“PS
Supraboy…tell you and your familes Rich Asian friends
to bail now !!!”

I told them, but they’re not listening. They said, “as long as we don’t sell, we haven’t lost.”

You know what the problem is? I’ve stated all along, as long as they’re not selling, and as long as they can continue to make mortgage payments (which is a piss in the bucket for them), prices aren’t coming down anytime soon. Even if a million dollar home is now worth 600k, they’ll still listed for 1.2 million. So in the end, no supply, no demand, therefore, too bad, “you’ve been priced out by rich asians.”

Current score: -18
38 X Anonymous Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 1:29 pm

NO -LYMPICS: You’re getting tiring. Yawn.

Current score: -6
39 X MrBear Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 1:32 pm

NO -LYMPICS: “Peak Oil? yes it exist …..but when?
There is “X” amount of oil on this planet. How much? Who really knows?”

Peak oil speaks to production, not reserves.

To expand: Yes, there is lots of oil around, and lots of things approximating oil, like oil sands and oil shale. The thing about peak oil theory is that none of this matters; the important conclusions in peak oil theory have nothing to do with the amount of stuff in the ground, but with the rate and cost at which it can be extracted. In a nutshell, peak oil theory observes that we tend to go for the easy stuff first, which leaves us with an increasingly difficult task to get out what’s left. Technology helps, in fact it is crucial, but it is unlikely we’re going to ever compete with the old days when you could drive a pipe into the desert and get essentially pressurized gasoline flying out of the ground.

We passed US peak oil production in the ’70s. I don’t know off hand whether or when Canadian production peaked. Price volatility is a predictable outcome of reaching global peak oil production, and it is reasonable to suspect that our recent price run-up was in part due to reaching a production ceiling which may or may not be a global peak in oil production. Yes, speculators went stupid, yet again. But if anyone could produce more oil at US$150 a barrel, you bet they would have.

I guess I’ve outed myself as a peak-ist, haven’t I? MrBear is a positive bear, but he lives close to his workplace.

Current score: 0
40 X blueskies Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 1:42 pm

john and supraboy are what you could call
“collateral damage”

otoh bv2/satv has an actual title: MFA
(monkey feces analyst)

most of his postings come after the taste test

Current score: 0
41 X realpaul Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 1:49 pm

economic tsunami headed for canada

http://www.theprovince.com/Bus.....story.html

this can’t be good for the real estate market

Current score: 2
42 X NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 1:56 pm

253 Anonymous Says:

January 12th, 2009 at 12:09 pm
NO -LYMPICS: Blame your architect and Gov’t, everybody in between is generally following orders according to the plan in front of them.
———————————————————-
———————————————————-

So you were in on it, too, eh?

=================
BTW I copy and pasted this from the previous “Friday Free For All ” discussion

If you don’t understand that , Anonymous, which realpaul also posted a similar reply in Post # 29 , then you are simply a DUMB-ASS Troll ……versus simply a Ha ha Funny Troll or ……even a Devil’s advocate Troll

You are making VanncovuerBoom2 look like Einstein.

Gov’t could create a far more stringent code that would reduce or eliminate the problems.

So why doesn’t it ?

I mentioned a few weeks back a PBS documentary which followed the planning and construction of a NYC Hi Rise. The Developer took the design of their building envelope, built a mock up, and subjected it to testing in a Lab. Any flaws that allowed such things as water infiltration were detected and fixed before actual construction commenced.

Why doesn’t Vancouver or BC insist on such due – diligence?

I have heard “rumours” that they (Gov’ts)do not want things to last more than 25 years…they want building turnaround….”planned obsolescence”.

Remember that strata comples(name escapes me..on PoCo or Burnaby I think)built under the Barrett NDP Gov’t which was a legendary leaker disaster..maybe the original leaky condo..it got so bad a developer came in and bought them all out and tore it down and built new condos (BTW they needed 100% ownership consensus and I recall it was down to one holdout before they to gave in)

That may be the wave of the future.

BTW Anything I build is built like brick shithouse.
It is actually easier to do than build crap.
Crap takes much more effort and charges more.

BTW I have done Home Inspections for people.

PS: If you are yawning, that is a sign we should put you to sleep.

Current score: 1
43 X realpaul Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 2:00 pm

Anonymous:

you must be a child or be havin’ one of them thar larnin’ disabilities. I sold building projects and buisness opps to new immigrants. I watched them build the crap the city signed off on. Maybe you’re dislexic or have a reading comprehension issue.

Today I see idiots making offers on condos that have been registered as leakers, thats the type of stupid we are all talking about on this forum.

Today I see ’sandwich meat’ making offers on condos even while the bottom is falling out of the market. Are all these people going to come back and want the government to get thier losses back? Thats the kind of folly we are trying to point out in this forum.

Trusting government, media and quasi public orgs like REBGV , CREA, CMHC, Credit Union Economists, RealTurd spokes/salesmen is where 100% of your problems begin. You are simply to stupid and naive to understand which tree to bark up.

Current score: 13
44 X NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 2:10 pm

SupraBoy

QUOTE:
“You know what the problem is? I’ve stated all along, as long as they’re not selling, and as long as they can continue to make mortgage payments (which is a piss in the bucket for them), prices aren’t coming down anytime soon. Even if a million dollar home is now worth 600k, they’ll still listed for 1.2 million. So in the end, no supply, no demand, therefore, too bad, “you’ve been priced out by rich asians.”

True.
In many cases, you only lose IF you sell
However, why make mortgage payments???…that does not imply they are “rich”…. but does imply their financing is subject -to monthly cash flow, which may be disrupted given the global economy.

You don’t own it till the final payment is made, it’s “rent to own ” till then.

Also “Life’s a dim sum bitch and then you die”.
Are these friends of your immortal ?

If and when they do die, my guess is the estate will sell at current market price, cash in and run for lots of Tsingtao beer .

Current score: 6
45 X realpaul Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 2:12 pm

NO -LYMPICS:

You’re right to point this ‘obselesence’ thing out. I always wondered why the government was so silent on these well known issues. These failing envelope issues were well known in professional circles long before the bulk of the units were built. The very first building failed while under construction ” The Galleria” on West 8th ave in Vanc. I studied the ongoing mess as an appraisal student. The interior hallway ceilings were bowed down with water intrusion.

The argument is ‘are the staff at city halls everywhere in the GVRD simply grossly incompetant’, or did they have something else in mind, like ‘building turnover”?

There was an old saying I remember from the 60’s that stuck with me, it went ” Just because you’re not paranoid, it doesn’t mean they aren’t after you”.

I believe personally that there is a social engineering agenda and a high level of incompetance and thatis showing up in spades on the Millenium Project as an example du jour.

Current score: 5
46 X realpaul Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 2:27 pm

I’D LOVE TO SAY ” I TOLD YOU SO”!!!!!!

As I posted several days ago I proposed that Vancouver would try to float a bond issue at egregious rates of intrest. And TaTA !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Here it is.

These bozo’s may be getting thier ideas from VCI !!

http://www.vancouversun.com/Ci.....story.html

This means no more new books in the classroom for at least two generations, but don’t be surprised if the teachers and other civic workers go on strike to suck any extra dollars out of the basket. You heard it here first.

Current score: 3
47 X alexcanuck Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 2:30 pm

Realpaul:
Don’t let that trollish anonymous get to you, I like your posts, and want someone like you as my inspector when the time comes. You come across as someone with a clue or two, not just a poo-flinging monkey intent on stirring up discord.

Current score: 1
48 X realpaul Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 2:32 pm

A Perfect example of government gibberish. They say in this article that prices are both going up and down, at the same time!!!!! This is very funny. Maybe a bit sad for those who have any faith in the veracity of government statements.

http://www.vancouversun.com/Va.....story.html

Current score: 2
49 X realpaul Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 2:34 pm

alexcanuck:

THX. I like to fling poo as much as the next guy, I just like to fling it in the right direction. And don’t worry about me, I have a few good lines left in the old quiver.

Current score: 2
50 X realpaul Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 2:43 pm

O Please read this carefully. “Asking to change the Charter to BYPASS THE REFERENDUM PROCESS AS REQUIRED BY LAW !!!!!”

The current city council wants to expunge the rights of the citizens. This is COMMUNISM at it’s very ugliest manifestation.!!!!!!!!!

“VANCOUVER – Vancouver city council will ask the provincial government to convene an emergency sitting of the legislature to give the city the power to borrow nearly $500 million to finish the Olympic Athletes’ Village.

Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson told reporters Monday that civic legislation requires the city to go to city voters to approve capital spending in a referendum.

The city wants the province to change the Vancouver Charter to allow it bypass the referendum requirement. He said the city needs $458 million to finish the village project.

Robertson underscored the urgency of the request, noting that the last $21 million of a $100-million civic loan to the project developer, Millennium Developments, will be exhausted by Feb. 14.

“The changes that we require would allow the city to borrow,” the mayor said. “The city is not authorized to borrow, particularly an amount of this significance, without the consent of taxpayers.”

NOw the citizens of Vancouver have no democratic right to question the actions of an out of control incompetant and fiscally violent political party????????

I don’t know about you but we need to be in the streets over this!!!!!!!!!!!

Current score: 13
51 X arit Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 2:49 pm

NO -LYMPICS:

“BTW I have done Home Inspections for people.

PS: If you are yawning, that is a sign we should put you to sleep.”

I am adding you to my list of highly paid consultants for my house.

Regards

arit

Current score: 5
52 X realpaul Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 2:50 pm

anytime you hear this from a politician with no experiance it means very bad things

“Now we need to act quickly,” he said. “The intention is to get the project to stability. There is no indication that we won’t be able to complete the Olympic village. But we are really going to have to bear down on the construction side.”

In other words ‘piss money at it until the pigs eat little Billy”.

From Vanc mayor today in the Sun Newspaper

Current score: 7
53 X asalvari Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 3:06 pm

realpaul:
The current city council wants to expunge the rights of the citizens. This is COMMUNISM at it’s very ugliest manifestation.!!!!!!!!!

No buddy, this is not a communism. A communism would be when the citizens rights are expunged, newspaper reporting this get closed, journalist writing this up are jailed due to terrorist acts they performed , taxes raised, and everybody ordered to city square to celebrate the Olympics, including the kindergarten classes.

Well, we are getting close to it, but not yet there.

Joke mode off//

I freaked out as well when I read what they are trying to do – is there a way to stop them ?

Current score: 5
54 X NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 3:09 pm

Click on link below

Sign up NOW! Garth the Mighty Squirrel Hunter already did

This is the future !

Stock up on the items you see ASAP
Forwarned is ForeARMED

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FV74rbgIsr8

Current score: 1
55 X Supraboy Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 3:15 pm

Guys, about the bailout, you think they’ll put it through a referendum? Is it going to be only a Vancouver vote?

Current score: -4
56 X Supraboy Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 3:20 pm

“True.
In many cases, you only lose IF you sell
However, why make mortgage payments???…that does not imply they are “rich”…. but does imply their financing is subject -to monthly cash flow, which may be disrupted given the global economy.

You don’t own it till the final payment is made, it’s “rent to own ” till then.

Also “Life’s a dim sum bitch and then you die”.
Are these friends of your immortal ?

If and when they do die, my guess is the estate will sell at current market price, cash in and run for lots of Tsingtao beer .”

Most of the asians that I know of isn’t selling because it’s their primary home. Their thinking is, “I need to live somewhere.”
Asians are smarter than most North Americans financially, they don’t over-leverage. They don’t need to use credit cards on LV and Gucci bangs like your typical hot blonde dating some old white man.

There are other types of asians, eg, vietnamese, who grow marijuana buying mercedes and beamers all in cash, 20 dollar bills. There’s no way the government can track all that.

Current score: -24
57 X Lis Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 3:40 pm

Supraboy,

Your Asian friends must be different from mine. The girls I went to school with in university all had fancy bags and were over-leveraged. They were second or third generation, or younger folk, so they didn’t have the same thinking as their parents.

I hail from another country so I’m pretty much a paranoid maniac who stuffs the mattress with dollar bills. I also buy large amount of food to stuff in the storage closet. I can probably eat for six months if a zombie apocaylpse happens and I board up the apartment.

Sue me, I grew up having to guess if we would have milk the next week.

Current score: 18
58 X NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 4:01 pm

55 Supraboy Says:

January 12th, 2009 at 3:15 pm
Guys, about the bailout, you think they’ll put it through a referendum? Is it going to be only a Vancouver vote?
==================================================

Supraboy:

It has been explained several times;

A Local Gov’t (ie City) has an annual budget.
This takes care of usual costs of running a City.
Local Gov’t can NOT run deficits.

They can borrow .

At times there are extraordinary expenditures…ie to build a large civic structure (ie Rec center , Library etc).or perhaps to fund a long term infrastructure plans(ie major sewer upgrade bridge, . etc etc.)

In such cases, the City will require a large LOAN, and must go to REFERENDUM and request Voter approval.

If the voter say NO…then it cannot borrow the money.

If the Voters say Yes..it will appear as an extra tax on your property tax notice till it is paid off. Referendums are usually brought forward during the civic elections(every held 3 years )..its more convenient and cost effective to put them with the other ballots .

Vanocuver has effectively admitted it is all alone.
NO HELP FROM ANYONE ELSE!
My guess is this knew this month ago, hence could have put it onthe ballot 2 months ago….but wanted to hide this from the public and hope for a mircale.

Well, the shite hit the fan . No Miracle now or in the future.

Vancouver deftly danced around the referendum, betting that the Olympic Village condos would sell and all would be well , trust them, not to worry .

OOPS!!!!

A referendum provides accountability and transparency which the taxpayers are OWED with such extraordinary and risky ventures. COV and other Local Gov’t have been deftly avoiding referendums for far too long and engaging in risky P3 etc. ventures .

After the crash and burn , my guess (and sincere hope !!!)is Campbell and Co in Victoria re-visit the laws and stop this nonsense and demand referendums , no more P3 and also stop Local Gov’ts from engaging in activities best left to the Private Sector.

This was bound to happen one day and it is happening BIG TIME !

Current score: 3
59 X realpaul Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 4:07 pm

Supraboy:

They don’t need to use credit cards on LV and Gucci bangs like your typical hot blonde dating some old white man.

Soopie, soopie , soopie , is the bsmt at your parents house hermetically sealed?

There is a higher percentage of poverty among new immigrant groups than any other. The majority of new canadaian Chinese are far from rich .The highest percentage of family violence cases are from the Chinese community in Richmond.

A recent mental health report from Richmond indicated that the greatest number of case of emergency cases come from the Chinese community. Is your read just wrong or is there trouble in your bsmt paradise.

The main streets of Richmond are lined with massage parlours, prostitution in China and HK is super prevalent. I have to drive by the T&T distribution center everyday ( on Greybar Rd) the people working there are all new Canadians from Chinese origin. The streets are lined with all kinds of new cars, but the people inside are all making soup packets and prepping sandwiches and other grocery items. These are all rental and leased vehicles obviously because the people workinhg in the T&T site are only making minimum wage.

You really don’t do the Chinese community any service by misrepreseenting them as arrogant rich dim sum queens and parasites. This racisct diatribe you espouse is sicko dude.

Current score: 13
60 X Supraboy Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 4:12 pm

“I hail from another country so I’m pretty much a paranoid maniac who stuffs the mattress with dollar bills. I also buy large amount of food to stuff in the storage closet. I can probably eat for six months if a zombie apocaylpse happens and I board up the apartment.

Sue me, I grew up having to guess if we would have milk the next week.”

Are you also asian? You’re not the only asian that would do such a thing. Therefore, the ones who load up on pretty bags are the minority of asians.

Current score: -16
61 X Supraboy Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 4:16 pm

“You really don’t do the Chinese community any service by misrepreseenting them as arrogant rich dim sum queens and parasites. This racisct diatribe you espouse is sicko dude.”

Have you talked to any of the Chinese people in Richmond and see what kind of life they live? Also, the more chinese people there are, the more renters there are, therefore, prices get jacked up, whether they’re rich or poor, rental rates go up because of them.

Current score: -18
62 X NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 4:42 pm

Post # 51

Arit:

Not a problem….you get the VCI posters discount !

Current score: -1
63 X Anonymous Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 4:54 pm

As an Asian Canadian I find Supraboy to be offensive and do not believe he is Chinese. He is obviously a racist jerk.

Current score: 19
64 X NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 5:00 pm

Man this soap opera will get interesting:

Gordo is the BC Premier
Gordo is also a VANCOUVER MLA
A Provincial election in May 2009.
Olympics in 2010

SO:
Will Gordo bend and allows Mayor Gregor to bypass the REFERENDUM?

Gordo and Vision Vancouver are like oil and water.

Gordo allowing it sets a precedent, as other Local Gov’ts will request similar allowances and then ALL B.C citizens become vulnerable, given the intent of the legislation is to stop what is happening in Vancouver.

In addition, if Gordo allows it, he cuts the throat of the Province as it will end up “Bail Out City galore” for the Province due to irresponsible Cities.

This will be a true test of leadership.
My guess is Gordo won’t allow it.

Vancouver will be used as an example and set an example.

Vancouver’s only out will be to sell assets (???).

Regardless…This was 100% self – inflicted by COV.

Current score: 3
65 X MrBear Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 5:06 pm

Anonymous: “As an Asian Canadian I find Supraboy to be offensive and do not believe he is Chinese. He is obviously a racist jerk.”

I think a lot of people here would agree with you. I know I wouldn’t feel too welcome on this board if I were an Asian Canadian, and Supraboy is a big part of the reason why. But it would be easier to sort your post out from the anonymous trolls if you just picked a handle.

Current score: 16
66 X realpaul Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 5:21 pm

Juicy news hint dropped by Vaughn Palmer. The province has stated that it is not obligated to provide accomadation for visiting atheltes at the Olympic Village site. “They may just rent out hotel rooms or lease space elsewhere.”

The Milllenium, project may be doomed to become a rotting concrete shell on the false creek site.

The idea that COV can rough -ride over the civic charter rights of the citizens is not going to sell well with the citizens of the province overall. We have an election coming up, the optics of having a wacko-political party pull a quasi dictatorship precedent established by expunging the rights of citizens isn’t going to be an easy item for the Libs to back. Don’t expect the Libs to ride into this one.

Invested in the Oly Village? Did you just crap your pants? Yes, the stinky smell is you.

Current score: 6
67 X realpaul Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 5:28 pm

NO -LYMPICS:

I should have read your post before I posted mine. you are right on with that summation.

Current score: 1
68 X MrBear Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 5:42 pm

realpaul: Speaking of rotting concrete shells…
What happens when a major construction project is abandoned? If someone digs a 40′ hole next to your building and abandons it, how long can the shoring be counted on to keep your building structurally safe? That seems like the worst case scenario to me, if you had the misfortune to be a neighbour of one of these disasters.

Current score: 7
69 X blueskies Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 5:59 pm

f someone digs a 40′ hole next to your building and abandons it,

the spot where Espana is being built
and where Firenze is was a nice bucolic
duck pond for the longest time some trees
actually grew more than 10 feet tall…..
so it’s all good…..

Current score: 7
70 X Alex Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 6:21 pm

I can’t understand why they didn’t get insurance of some sort to account for cost overuns or receivership of the builder.

Now what, maybe let it go bankrupt and then the City take it over from there. Maybe the athletes can be set up in Atco trailers or they can lease a few Love Boats.

Current score: 3
71 X Normally Lurking Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 6:31 pm

Re 70

There are a couple of un-used boats tethered up in North Van. They were going to be called Fat Cat Fairies or something like that.

They should be gutted and turned into giant rooming-house boats to house the atheletes. Tow them over to false creek and let it be a floating atheletes village. Much more environmentaly friendly than building a whole bunch of buildings that will only be used for two weeks!

Current score: 1
72 X Skye Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 6:31 pm

2009 is sure shaping up to be an interesting year so far. Try not to face-palm too hard when you start hearing the chorus of “Nobody could have seen this coming!”

Current score: 2
73 X realpaul Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 6:49 pm

MrBear:

Thats a really good question. I can wing an answer and speculate that the shoring integrity would depend on the subsoil conditions and the type of site prep or pre – load is involved. I would watch very carefully for any cracks appearing in the sideyard of the adjacent property(s) and photograph the site on a semi-regular basis for insurance purposes.

Water intrusion may also become an issue and you could possibly experiance erosion of subsoil around the foundations of the structures adjascent to the pit as it fills up and changes the percolation quality of the surrounding area, so, continue to monitor for soft spots on the lawn, rapid moss growth, uneven settling, cracks on roadways , driveways etc., and new moisture on the interior walls of the ( your) foundation. This would indicate that the structural integrity of your own property ( or the areas around the pit) is being compromised.

Really though, this is an engineering question and maybe even a legal one at some point. I would begin to create a paper trail ( what my lawyer calls ‘a pile of files’) by contacting the developer ( in writing) and asking for the status of the project and contacting City Hall ( in writing)and issue a letter of concern to your insurance company.

I don’t have all the by-laws for every community memeorized, but there may bne some kind of statute or by law timeline you can trigger by filing some paperwork.

Current score: 4
74 X NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 6:50 pm

66 realpaul Says:

January 12th, 2009 at 5:21 pm
Juicy news hint dropped by Vaughn Palmer. The province has stated that it is not obligated to provide accomadation for visiting atheltes at the Olympic Village site. “They may just rent out hotel rooms or lease space elsewhere.”

—————————————————

Yes, realpaul… I heard that on the news.

It might be PLAN B (or C)

However, in a TV clip it showed Penny Ballem , the new COV City Manager stating the Olympic Village must be completed.

So …..we ” may ” have a flexible IOC which simply says “All we demand is “some” accomodations not “specific”ones, and they find these accomodations elsewhere.

However, keep in mind that the other “hat” or side of the equation is a ” Speculative Condo investment project by COV ” with contracts in place with various contractors etc. They would likely sue for breach of contract unless compensated.

The rotting concrete shells you envision would be poetic justice, but IMHO they have long ago reached the point of no return.

However:
It would be funny if some City beancounter said STOP RIGHT NOW, it IS cheaper to do the following:
— we can put the athletes up in local hotels (which will give us a discount)
— we buy out all outstanding contracts,
— demolish what we built so far and
— get the land back.
Save $$$ Millions

Wishful thinking .

Typical hubris from Gov’ts who never analyze all the scenarios.

Current score: 0
75 X realpaul Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 7:00 pm

I just watched the “Olsen on your Side ” segment some of us were talking about on an earlier string. To his credit Olsen wasn’t pimping a specific project and stuck to a fairly vanilla presentation around getting an inspector, looking at a lot of product before deciding as it is a buyers market now and you have the time to do so.

The couple mentioned that they made an offer on a used condo ( it looked like New West in the background -shudder) at $30,000 under list price and the vendor folded very quickly. I wonder what a -100K offer could have done in the right situation.

They said that they’d looked around a lot and found the a majority of product was abused and overpriced. The place they purchased had been reno’d somewhat by the look of it, meaning it hadn’t been a grow op, or maybe it had, it was New West after all. New West, Surrey ( Sewery), The Valley uugh all pretty creepy.

Current score: 4
76 X NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 7:01 pm

Flipped between Global and CTV News.

Can’t believe there are people like Ex- Mayor Philip Owen who still think it was a good deal and the RE market will turn around in 2-3 years.

He wasn’t the only one who felt that.
Ignorance is epidemic.

PM Harper politely told Vancouver to F*ck – Off re: any help.

Tsur Sommerville at least admitted a long time before prices climb back up.

Peter Ladner and Sam Sullivan wouldn’t be interviewed ( being fitted for Kevlar underpants ?)

PS :
“Olsen on your side feature” re: RE purchases was nothing many of us haven’t heard before.

Current score: 3
77 X realpaul Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 7:09 pm

NO -LYMPICS:

If they went with plan B then there would be no ‘Olympic Village’ timelines or deadlines and no need to spend an additional 500 Mill plus costs which would be with union math at least another 100% on top for good measure. With Plan b COV would really be hard pressed to justify further expense. In a few years the exposed concrete would lose it structural integrity and the place could be bulldozed and turned into a beer garden. That would be poetic justice.

If there is more talk about housing athletes in alternative accom then why proceed with the timelines at all. The COV could as they they have glibbly announced ” hold the sales off until the market improves” HAHAHAHA Woops I think I’ve had an accident

Current score: 3
78 X NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 7:20 pm

realpaul:

Re: Olsen on your side feature:

Yeah ,I was trying to peg their new digs.

It was a river view…it may have been that South Vancouver project ( below Marine Drive , West of Boundary )

New West possibly.

Can’t recall much possibility up River past New West.

Curious what the strata ” Minutes ” say , amount in the contingency fund etc.
Olsen should hav expanded the feature into more of the “meat” versus just the “hunt”.

2 hour inspection on a strata? One has to inspect the broader strata….does one not? (Back to “Minutes”)
Your neighbours problems can and will become your problems as well , do they not, based on how stratas are legally structured ? It’s not just about YOUR unit.

I don’t see a downside for the media to be more like a “white knight” these days (especially when RE is tanking) and make everybody a better – informed consumer.

With all this glut of product, effectively there will be no such thing as new product for a long time…..the “used” meter for wear and tear starts ticking sooner and sooner.

Current score: 0
79 X Silviamg Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 7:38 pm

York University did a study on ethno-racial groups in Toronto in 2006 which addresses economic earnings. They found the economic gap between members of European and non-European ethno-racial groups has been increasing over the last 30 years. The study showed about 30 per cent of the members of East Asian groups, and 20 per cent of the South Asian groups lives in poverty. By comparison, only 10 per cent of European group members were below the poverty line, and for some European groups the figure was only about five per cent.

Just for people who are curious about the study:

http://www.yorku.ca/isr/downlo.....1-2001.pdf

If you are curious about recent immigrants in particular, they have higher poverty rates and make less money than native Canadians. In 1980, recent immigrant men earned 85 cents for every dollar of their Canadian-born counterparts. In 2005, that number was 63 cents according to Stats Canada.

The idea that immigrants are mostly very wealthy is silly.

However, I will admit that among us immigrants there are lots of efforts to save face. None of us like to admit we may not be making enough money (specially when going to visit our homeland). This may create the appearance of more wealth than there really is. There’s also deep differences in attitudes of young versus older people. In short: rich immigrants are not the norm. I wouldn’t count on them to save the housing market (or to sink it).

Current score: 12
80 X observer Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 7:54 pm

Something doesn’t jive to me about this olympic village fiasco and I get the feeling we are still being kept in the dark about the exact situation.

For instance, it doesn’t make sense to me that COV would have agreed to delivering the village or pay penalties to the IOC, however complex the contract. COV isn’t building it so why would they have ever agreed to such a clause. I see a post above alluding to the fact that this may not even be true and that we only need provide accommodation for the athletes.

Second, if they did, surely even an incompetent negotiator would have put a clause that Millennium must deliver the village or pay fines to COV. If such a clause exists, then I don’t see why COV is sweating right now, it should be Millennium.

It is Fortress that is asking COV to provide a loan guarantee because it feels it might not get its money back from Millenium. But other lenders might not.

So why is COV already jumping in to borrow on behalf of Millennium when it could be the case other lenders are willing to lend money to Millennium without a COV guarantee. If Millennium won’t do this, then COV (together with provincial and federal governments) need to threaten to take every cent from them. Period. I think we need to see Millennium pay before the citizens of COV pay.

As for changing the charter, there is moral hazard in this for any provincial government that does this. And elections are coming up soon.

Current score: 5
81 X NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 8:37 pm

observer:

Of course its confusing…that’s the way they like it.
However contracts are kept confidential , very little is ever revealed.

I suppose the IOC could try to do this privately, perhaps ask GM or IBM to host them( but they could go broke )….but the IOC insidiously promotes this to countries as a feather in their cap, when its aim is to shaft them up the ying yand by making absolutely sure the (Olympic side)show WILL go on , and there is no greater guarantee than the taxpayers, on the premise GOV’T CANNOT GO BROKE.

The news mentioned the possibilty of other accomodations being used.

Credit is tight and especially for this project. My guess is the profit is gone by the time it completes this fall. Vancouver is awash with unsold condos and cancelled projects, and many project further price depreciations.

Who in their right mind would loan to finish this huge project without proper guarantees and collateral ?

Unfortunately, at the end of the IOC sucked in another set of STOOOPID politicians who think they are different than every other City that has hosted the Olympics and cost the citizens dearly.

Vancouver is not the first nor the last IOC sucker/victim.

Current score: 6
82 X condohype Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 8:49 pm

Observer, the city’s obligation to the Olympics is to provide accommodation to athletes. There’s no hard requirement for the housing to be the Olympic Village at Millennium Water. The city could book the Holiday Inn and fulfill their obligation.

The Olympic Village isn’t a problem with VANOC or the IOC. The problem is the deal the city made with the developer’s financier, Fortress Investment Group. In 2007, the city agreed to a completion guarantee. This ensured that if Millennium went into default, the city would backstop the project. Effectively, it turned the city into the developer. Millennium defaulted in September and Fortress cut off their loans. Today, there’s about $475-million left to build. The completion contract forces the city to finish the job with Fortress. We’re hooped. There’s no way out.

Nobody is willing to lend to Millennium. Their project is not viable. Banks will lend to the city because the city has assets and a tax base. The thing is, the completion deal with Fortress restricts financing options. The city may face penalties if it builds the project with money from other lenders.

Current score: 13
83 X realpaul Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 9:12 pm

NO -LYMPICS:

Right about the neighbours and goings on in the bldg which could be exposed by a reading of the minutes. If I was to live in an apartment I would want to interview every one to make sure that they weren’t insane or up to something that only presented itself the day after I moved in.

Current score: 0
84 X vancouverboom2 Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 9:28 pm

questionmark: Closing your eyes and plugging your ears doesn’t change reality, it just means you don’t know whats going on.its time to face reality man,If you know all those words why don’t you act on it ?.QESTIONNMARK?.

Boom again and feel the beat of
the rythem
rythem of the night
Boom again and hear the voices
calling
creatures of the night
Boom again and see the shadows
dancing
in the pale moonlight
Boom againa and feel your
heartbeat pumping
now the time is right
so go walk out the door
get down….get on the floor
let’s shout break out
come on once again let’s hear it
BOOM2 Now Playing

Current score: -17
85 X CZ Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 9:45 pm

Stop those racist BS – we are Canadian, CANADIAN!

No mater where are the million dollar home owners originated from, as long as they have mortgages, they need to pay big bucks on a regular basis. If they own outright – good luck to them, but they still need to pay maintenance, property tax (Are you in Vancouver? Good luck to you thanks to VANOC), and your other bills on the houses.

At the end, their equity will shrink, regardless, just like everyone else. When the bloodboth starts, there is no difference in the nature between a million dollar home or a 200K condo, they are all shrunk by a certain number of %.

Cash is king – holding a job is much more preferred than holding a real estate in 2009/2010 period (or longer).

Current score: 12
86 X Vic Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 9:46 pm

I just talked to my banker and she told me that the bank was doing “interesting” tactics to prevent the mortgages from going belly up. From what she told me, the bank is allowing customers to only pay the interest of the mortgage — especially customers who would default otherwise. Given current interest rates — this would prevent some defaults. However, if rates do increase, I see big problems ahead.

Somebody mentioned that people should continue to pay their $1M mortgage on a house that is worth 50% of its value. I think the bank will reposes that house long before then.

Current score: 3
87 X CZ Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 9:54 pm

Love the lyric in the #84, with “Boom” replaced by “Doom”.

Current score: 0
88 X observer Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 9:56 pm

Thanks for the explanation condohype, that helps, but some things are still puzzling.

When you say Millennium went into default in September, what does that mean? As I understand it, going in to default means one stops making periodic payments that are owed. But what payments was Millennium supposed to make to Fortress in September that it failed to make? It doesn’t quite make sense to me since Fortress didn’t even release all the money yet. So it must be something else that Millennium failed to satisfy in its contract with Fortress. But why aren’t we being told exactly what was the nature of that default?

Every keeps on referring to a completion guarantee that COV provided to Fortress in 2007. But this could mean a lot of things and why isn’t the exact nature of that completion guarantee being disclosed.

This is all very confusing and I agree with no-olympics that it is likely the whole thing is being deliberately kept that way, even by our recently elected civic officials.

Current score: 0
89 X CZ Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 9:57 pm

arit,

Great work! It would even better if you could get the above “Doom” lyric with music in.

Current score: 1
90 X MrBear Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 10:03 pm

realpaul: Thanks for ‘winging it’, as you say. That sounds like a reasonable analysis to me. I remember hearing about an excavation partially collapsing in the West End a few years back, and it has made me pretty conscious of those holes when I walk past them.

Fortunately, MrBear is a renting bear, so condos collapsing into excavations won’t be my problem. But I’ve walked by ‘Kore’ at 3rd and Burrard quite often, and that hole is right tight against the neighbouring condo. I bet they were happy when they saw the developers start to pour concrete! Not that they’ve poured much mind you, but at least they’ve stopped digging.

Current score: 2
91 X NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 10:22 pm

Ad from Millenium

http://www.millenniumwater.com/

Click on the various features at the bottom.

Current score: 0
92 X observer Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 10:26 pm

Okay, I was reading the slides from the city manager

http://www.canada.com/vancouve.....anager.pdf

It seems the loan went “out of balance” in September. I don’t know what that means.

The completion guarantee is that the COV is responsible (to Fortress) to complete the project to original specifications.

Seems like a strange clause for lender to require. Don’t lenders just want their money back with interest? Okay, so maybe COV couldn’t guarantee the full amount of the loan perhaps, without going to a referendum. But it might be borderline to guarantee completion without a referendum.

Why do I get the feeling this was actually quite carefully and deliberately crafted?

Current score: 1
93 X NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 10:36 pm

Fortress:

” Fortress Investment Group (NYSE: FIG) is a New York, NY-based asset management firm which manages private equity, hedge funds, and real estate and railroad-related investments, with announced plans to move into casinos and horse racing. The company went public on February 9, 2007.[1]”

Fortress lent funds to Millenium. It is no longer willing to fund the project, just as many other lenders have suspended funding to other developers.

Fortress is having its own financial problems and has frozen redemptions. It was playing “chicken” with the City.

If Millenium is out of the picture…and the Olympic athletes can be housed elsewhere, and Fortress refuses to fund the project any further, could the City then walk away and cut its losses under those conditions ?

There has been no such talk.

Obviously there is more to it.

Current score: 5
94 X observer Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 10:37 pm

(and as for the veil of secrecy during the election to protect delicate negotiations, one can’t help but wonder now if the reason was to put a lid on things until it reached a point that COV no longer had any choice but to make a quick decision in order to get the village built, albeit at great taxpayer expense)

Current score: 3
95 X observer Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 10:46 pm

No olympics – you’re right, not much has been said about Millennium’s current financial situation, which is obviously relevant. By the way, the manner in which Robertson is trying to push through the loan reminds me of Naomi Klein’s Shock Doctrine – create the conditions for a crisis and use that to push through the desired result amid confusion and a tight deadline, even in a democracy.

Current score: 3
96 X NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 10:54 pm

Thanks for the link observer…makes it clearer

If Millenium and the City borrowed from a hedge fund, it seem obvious the Banks were saying NO(and maybe for good reason)

If that is the case, my guess is that the COV guarantee for completion was simply Fortress also acknowledging the risk and it had included the right to withdraw funding on the project at any point in time.

It appears that the COV guarantees to complete is simply Fortress being assured of some secured /guaranteed return on its loan.

In other words , I read this as Fortress will be THE first creditor in line to be paid, even if the project is later sold at FIRE SALE prices.

If THAT is the case,after the dust settles , COV may be left with nothing after possibly contributing the most given its obligation to complete.

Fortress did not want to see any of its investment sitting wasted as 1/2 completed rotting condos, hence worded the contract language as such so that the City would be forced to acquire funds elsewhere in order to complete. This reduced the risk/exposure for Fortress.

Perhaps a clever move by Fortress to a gullible COV?

Current score: 1
97 X observer Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 11:13 pm

You are probably right, but I wouldn’t be surprised if there were in fact safer alternatives given the daily watergate like news. I wonder if Concord Pacific put in a bid and who their proposed lender was if that was the case.

Judging from what I seen, these hedge fund guys seem pretty clever in the conditions set.

And that’s quite the point you make. I do seem to remember Fortress is the first creditor from previous articles. As you say that means it has first dibs on getting its money back and only if there is any remaining money, does COV get any.

Then all this talk about the project still having value and COV getting back at least some money doesn’t hold water. It has also been mentioned that COV might wait until RE prices rise enough to make the project profitable (in itself a dubious assumption). But wouldn’t Fortress have the right to fire sale when it sees fit as first creditor?

Current score: 0
98 X Anonymous Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 11:20 pm

realpaul: I don’t know about you but we need to be in the streets over this!!!!!!!!!!!
————————————————————————
————————————————————————

You go first. Oh, wait. Then you would have to get up off your chair.

Current score: -7
99 X realpaul Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 11:29 pm

Anonymous: Huh?

Current score: 1
100 X observer Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 11:37 pm

I wonder what the penalties are to Fortress if COV doesn’t complete?

If Fortress imposes refinancing penalties, maybe what COV should do is borrow money to mount a hostile take over of Fortress (given its depressed share price, it could be around the same ball park as the amount they are now seeking), rescind the original deal, then liquidate Fortress assets to complete the project and retain full title to the development. Problem solved.

Current score: 0
101 X realpaul Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 11:43 pm

Anonymous:

Blog Troll 35 up, 8 down
1.(n) -A pathetic and moronic person who maintains a blog with an unhealthy obsessive-compulsive drive, especially angsty goths (sorry to all the likeable goths out there). The content of their blogs usually includes events that no sane person would care about. Here’s sample of what a blog troll might write on their blog:
“today, I ate a sanwich. It bad – it was just ok, mediocre, I guess you could call it. After that I read a few chapters out of an Anne Rice book and was deeply moved by her erotic descriptions of gay vampires fornicating. . Then I took a nap.

2.(n) -A depraved individual who sits in front of a computer all day and posts flames of an idiotic or pseudo-intellectual nature on public forums and private websites. Many of these people actually become emotional about what is said on the afore-said mediums and feel it is their duty to punish those who disagree with them. They too may pursue this object in an obsessive-compulsive manner.

Current score: 1
102 X condohype Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 12:23 am

Out of balance refers to a scenario where the borrower starts incurring cost-overruns and fails to obtain financing on the over-budget amount. If you watch Olympic Village presentation by the city manager, she says this happened to Millennium starting in May 2008. There were technical issues with “construction and commitments” that threw the budget out of whack and, on September 15, Fortress chose to pull the plug.

Concord Pacific put in a bid but I believe they came in several million lower on the land buy. Wall Financial also bid.

Current score: 2
103 X Moldcity Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 12:50 am

observer: Awesome idea, and may just be the most sensible option for the city as this point. We wouldn’t come out ahead, but at least we wouldn’t be stuck in as deep a hole.

Somebody should pay for this mess, unfortunately it looks like it will be us the taxpayer.

Current score: 3
104 X scullboy Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 1:11 am

Supra, you really are a git.

I’ve tried to like you or at the very least, to find you slightly more amusing then our resident poo – flinging money, VB2.

YOu remind me so much of this Chinese dude who used to work for me. He’d try *everything* to convince us he was an “entrepreneur” who was destined to be rich. When SARS broke out in Toronto, he ordered a bunch of masks he was planning on selling. He was sure he was on to something.

Of course the masks arrived in a cardboard box. Unsterilized. With “made in China” on the label.

We called him “nurse Wu” and “the Wu – man” for a while after that. It took him quite a while to get the joke.

He leased a BMW 3 series, which actually struck me as somewhat sensible, except that he told people he’d earned the money to buy it in a business deal. The guy was forever trying to import cheap junk from China and make a profit at it, even though all the other young Chinese guys in Toronto were doing the same thing, and selling the junk for less.

Like you he had, shall we say, an interesting view on the intelligence and work ethic of his caucasian counterparts, and his boss (me). He spent so much time trying to figure out how to wiggle out of work, he’d have been better off just doing his job. The guy just never pulled his weight, and yet he was convinced he worked harder then anyone else.

Once, he claimed to have a sprained ankle, yet someone snapped a photo of him at the company picnic playing volleyball, going for a shot perfectly balanced on his “sprained” ankle. It was a lot of fun seeing the look on his face when I busted him on that one. “Gwai lo ain’t so stupid after all, huh?” I said, just to watch the colour drain out of his face.

Eventually I caught him pulling some shady business and fired him. He swore he’d have his high – powered lawyers all over the company.

Needless to say, it never happened.

Eventually I caught him calling back into work, asking his colleagues to give him a reference and confirm he was the “head of the department”. Needless to say, that didn’t happen either.

You, my friend are *exactly* like that dude.

I can’t quite figure out if you’re trying to convince us of the things you write, or if you just believe without question the appearances around you. Either way it’s painfully clear you’re a very young man, either just out of high school or community college. You don’t know enough about the world to put on a convincing act; the only person you’re fooling is yourself. Literally.

Now go drink some nasty – ass Chinese beer, dude. There’s a reason nobody outside Richmond orders or drinks the stuff. It’s the equivalent of duck piss.

Real men drink Keith’s.

Current score: 6
105 X scullboy Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 1:56 am

No-Lymics,

You asked about VB2’s mom’s evening occupation.

Let’s just say she operates out of TV towers, and many men have enjoyed her “seven treasure surprise”. Mind you, they all needed a dose of penicillin afterwards.

Current score: -3
106 X Anonymous Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 5:00 am

In case you missed it:

78
realpaul Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 1:20 pm
It can happen anywhere including here. Houses for $1000.00
http://money.cnn.com/video/#/v…..e.cnnmoney
#71 you’re quite right. In the 1991 market those McMansion prices ( From 1.2 Mill down to 650K) peaked and crashed within months (of the final completion of my last 3 projects in Richmond Broadmoor area). I was there just FYI for the new real estate promoters.
The prices stayed at 1991 levels until 2002 and then slowly crept back up but have never recovered to the 1.2 mill level. The fact is that they became functionally obselete as time passed ( a decade) and newbie owners sat on them making payments waiting to recover losses. Many now are rooming houses. But in all fairness renting rooms in your house is very common to the culture in HK and China.
I was a 3rd generation builder ( retired now from the racket) , I hammered nails after school and on weekends when I was six. My point being that we did a lot of the work ourselves with quality in mind, people took pride in that stuff back in the 60’s.
When I was building in the 80’s and 90’s I seldom visted the sites, I never met most of the contractors or the buyers. I was hiring contractors and functionaries who havn’t the least interest in quality, we were more interested in scheduling.
Those structures that were built in that time ( beginning in the 80’s) were all built out of the worst crap and materials that a builder can get away with. This includes the SFH’s, condo’s and concrete in every sub area that were built back then. I saw crap built in the very best areas which was doomed to fail because of the crap material and faulty engineering, and I’m talking multi-million dollar home and mega million high rises. DUH, wonder why they leak now?????
We figured if they would pass inspection that they were ‘good enough’. In the 60’s it would take close to a year to build a house. We’d build a few at a time. In the 80’s it would take 3 months, they were just slapped together. The inspectors, city engineers and architects were idiots and should have been prosecuted for the leaky condo mess on the commercial side and frankly we in the industry were shocked and amused when they slid out the back door unscathed. The city’s lawyers were really on thier game shielding layers of scum from tainting the skirts of the mucky mucks.
But thats a big ’so what’ in the building community today. Nobody gives a shit about quality, they really don’t. They might say they do in the ads, but thats because the realturds and the ad men haven’t a clue, today is all about decorating the kitchen because thats where the sale is made.
When an experianced builder walks through a site today it’s all he can do to keep from spitting his lunch through his nose it’s so funny and in many case dangerous, but if the inspectors don’t give a shit and the city doesn’t give a shit and the architect signed off then who’s going to give a shit?
The new Canadian Indian builder, the new Canadian Chinese builder, most of these people have never worn lace up shoes for Petes sake, they have zero understanding of mechanics or construction in this country or thier own, it is just a ‘buisness opportunity’subsidized by the temple bank, half the time with grow op money. Have any of you ever been on a construction site in India? YIKES !!!!!
Oh yeah , they’re famous for quality products and food exports. LOL, thats why when buildings fail in China and India the entire structure crumbles into a pile of dust. If you want a quality home built you have to hire a European ( or someone)with a lifelong understanding of this type of structural development. If you have to explain electrical wiring is or what a hot water tank is to a ‘builder’ then maybe you should rethink your contract. I have had this experiance.
In the 60’s a builder put his name on a product and stood by it for generations, by the 80’s I was creating numbered company ( zero liablity entities) and contracting projects to new immigrants for a profit and half the time I never set foot on the land. Most of home owners had never lived in SFH and couldn’t find thier way up a set of stairs, never mind ask how the studs were spaced.
Building Tommorows Ghettos Today, I allways got a laugh from that idea.
Another line I like is from the Pirates of the Caribbean movie where Capt. Jack says in a toast “Take what you can and give nothing back.” This seems to have become the maxim for buisness in Vancouver.

Current score: 1
107 X realpaul Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 6:04 am

Anonymous:

in case you missed it

2.(n) -A depraved individual who sits in front of a computer all day and posts flames of an idiotic or pseudo-intellectual nature on public forums and private websites. Many of these people actually become emotional about what is said on the afore-said mediums and feel it is their duty to punish those who disagree with them. They too may pursue this object in an obsessive-compulsive manner.

so anonymous hows the weather up there?

Back on earth

The City is now faced with financing charges of 8++% to finance the balance of the project finances. Article in the National Post this AM

Current score: 0
108 X realpaul Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 6:08 am

Anonymous:

by the 80’s I was creating numbered company ( zero liablity entities) and contracting projects to new immigrants for a profit and half the time I never set foot on the land.

Thats right troll, I never set foot on the land, it was a case of new immigrants being allowed to build out projects under thier own supervision as ‘buisnessmen’.

Definition of a troll with a reading comprehension disability

“They too may pursue this object in an obsessive-compulsive manner.”

Current score: 1
109 X Anonymous Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 6:22 am

realpaul: As long as you can sleep at night, that’s the main thing.

Current score: 0
110 X Anonymous Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 6:31 am

realpaul: Question: Would you do it all over again knowing how much anguish (monetary and emotional costs) the leaky condos that you were involved in building caused to honest hard-working people who did hire an inspector and a lawyer for their transaction and were simply buying a place to live in?

Current score: 1
111 X NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 6:42 am

House prices collapse?

A person I know owns a 5000 + sq. ft. house he bought brand new in Richmond.
It sits on a 10,000 sq. ft. lot.
Paid under $500,000 for it in 1991.
Waaaay under what it normally would have sold for.

How?

There was a slump at the times, the builder was overextended with a few unsold homes, and Bush had just entered the GULF WAR.

ie a Perfect Storm for the Seller.

The person I know smelled blood,..and the builder wanted to stop the bleeding.

Quick deal, Cash , no (or few ) subject- to’s etc.

Was offered $ 1 million for it a few months ago before things tanked.

Current score: 1
112 X Anonymous Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 6:44 am

NO -LYMPICS: That situation sounds typical.

Current score: -1
113 X Anonymous Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 6:52 am

NO -LYMPICS: Question: What type of home inspector were you, i.e., what are your credentials? Were you an independent home inspector?

http://www.independentinspecto.....umbia.html

Current score: 0
114 X NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 7:05 am

Anonymous:

With respect to Single Family Homes

Besides simply trolling, why criticize realpaul for doing business the way he did ?

It was the norm in those days.
It was the Wild West with all sorts of parties entering the fray. RealPaul and I swapped memories of one company we both know that went from a rinky dinky builder to one of Vancouvers biggest SFH home builder. I don’t see them much anymore. The rise and fall is typical.

For whatever reason…the rationale and methodology became established, aka ” the trend “,(such as McMansions based on Feng Shui) and it became the template thousands of other builders and developers had to follow.

Non ” Rich Asians ” who build new houses are told by their realtors to incorporate certain features into their homes if they ever want to sell them,(ie such as in – floor radiant heating ) assuming a Rich Asian will be the likely future buyer.

If you don’t cater to the given market, you are left behind in the dust.

If you try to stand on a soapbox and preach, the lemmings will simply run right past you. Not saying it’s right, but that’s the way it is.

Current score: 1
115 X Anonymous Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 7:24 am

From today’s Vancouver Sun:

“About one-third of the condo units have been sold and while construction activity was humming Monday, a sales presentation centre operated by Rennie Marketing Systems was devoid of potential customers at midday.

The presentation centre — with project site models, display kitchens and Olympic-style posters — features a luxurious two-bedroom, 1,273-square-foot unit with a listing price of $1,590,000, or nearly $1,250 a square foot.”

http://www.vancouversun.com/En.....story.html

$1250/SF – didn’t they get the memo? The market has dipped.

Current score: 0
116 X Anonymous Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 7:31 am

NO -LYMPICS: If you don’t cater to the given market, you are left behind in the dust.

If you try to stand on a soapbox and preach, the lemmings will simply run right past you. Not saying it’s right, but that’s the way it is.
———————————————————————–
———————————————————————–

Well, I guess that is one way of looking at the world. “If we don’t join the corruption we can’t survive.”

You do realize there are other ways of living, don’t you?

Current score: -1
117 X Anonymous Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 7:33 am

NO -LYMPICS: What other kinds of activities have you been involved in that you would like to tell us about?

Current score: -2
118 X NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 7:40 am

Home Inspection:

I stated earlier that I had inspected homes for some parties that asked me to , but I haven’t hung out a shingle advertisng ” Home Inspection “.

I’ve taken home inspection and related courses,(including BCIT) and taught courses, and held hands – on seminars.

In my view, the Home Inspection field is an ART of its own.
It relies on a lot of instinct and experience , not much different than detective work.

A lot of people in it were Ex – Tradesmen. ie an Ex plumber. Many Home Inspectors come from a wide variety of backgrounds . However, can they cover all the other bases ?

One house I looked at had already been inspected for the potential buyer. The potential buyer pointed out 2 galvanized water pipes that were cut off and dangling between the floor joists in the basement ceiling. The previous inspector had NO clue what they were. I said those are a pair of old H/C water pipes running up to what used to be a “suite” in the attic….not uncommon for a house this age and style.

For what may seem like a straight forward profession, a science is actually not, its more of an art.

It is things like keeping an ear out for little info -nuggets like a roofer I know who said the quality of a lot of tar -based roofing products has declined, given what used to be considered junk after the refining process ( but excellent for roofing ) has now had more extracted from it by the refining process , thus a lesser quality raw material for roofing products .

No inspector can give you guarantees, it is a balance of probabilities with a rider clause re: latent defects ie if they can’t see it(ie buried in a wall) they can’t be responsible.

Caveat Emptor applies not just to objects , but to “Services” as well.

Current score: 4
119 X Anonymous Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 7:45 am

NO -LYMPICS: It was the norm in those days.
It was the Wild West with all sorts of parties entering the fray.
——————————————————————
——————————————————————

Good excuse for unethical behavior. I guess anyone could use that excuse and you would accept it, right. Would you accept that excuse from city council? Hummmmm? Or is it reserved for only the special ones?

Current score: 0
120 X Anonymous Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 7:48 am

NO -LYMPICS: Yeah, right. Verbosity doesn’t make you right.

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/briti.....ector.html

Current score: -2
121 X NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 7:53 am

117 Anonymous Says:

January 13th, 2009 at 7:33 am
NO -LYMPICS: What other kinds of activities have you been involved in that you would like to tell us about?

=========================================================
Sure:

I have won 5 consecutive Super Bowls as a relief pitcher for the Boston Celtics.

Nobel Laureate in arm wrestling .

Advised Jimmy Pattison to hire Glen Clark.

Update:
I am currently developing a device that can track Trolls and send a Taser -like current to the same Troll when they touch any vowels on the keyboard.

Should be ready by Noon(Eastern Time).

Current score: 8
122 X alexcanuck Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 8:04 am

You do realize there are other ways of living, don’t you

Do mean like flinging poo anonymously and garnering down-clicks?

Pope:
Re. the ratings. Could it be jiggered so anonymous comments disappear at minus 10?
I don’t like the idea of just shouting down unpopular voices, but an exception would be nice for some-one who can’t even make up a name?
Or just ban the idiot, he really doesn’t add anything to the fairly good conversation here.

Current score: 5
123 X Anonymous Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 8:07 am

alexcanuck: No, I mean like treating people respectfully and not thinking of them as “sandwich meat”.

Current score: -6
124 X NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 8:08 am

120 Anonymous Says:

January 13th, 2009 at 7:48 am
NO -LYMPICS: Yeah, right. Verbosity doesn’t make you right.

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/briti…..ector.html

===========================================================

Huh?

That’s old news…re: the link .

That’s corporatism in action.
It’s simply creating an Old Boy’s Club to the exclusion of others . Then the politics and the infighting and becomes a quasi union. . Gov’t likes this, it simply a legal deflection so Gov’t doesn’t have to carry the bag and wash its hands (like it did with Leaky condos passed by Gov’t inspectors ).

Its like saying if your are not a UNION tradesmen any work you do is substandard. Yeah Right.

Why don’t they PROPERLY certify D-bag Architects and GOVERNMENT Inpectors who design at one end of the spectrum and ultimately pass the crap at the other end everybody bitches about ?
Therein lies the joke with these bandits.

BTW. Anonymous You must work for Gov’t.
Besides being a professional troll, I get the distinct feeling you are disconnected from the real world and how it works.

Current score: 1
125 X crabman Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 8:18 am

From Calculated Risk

In Florida, California, Arizona and Nevada, the flood of unsold condominiums is entering the apartment market and the excess supply is lowering rents in those areas, Barclays Capital analysts say.

Does this sound familiar? Does anyone still think it’s different here?

Current score: 12
126 X beatstreet Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 8:25 am

For years the property tax structure in Vancouver has subsidized residential construction. That is gone forever (at least in my life time) thanks to the Olympic legacy.

Just like Montreal post Big-Owe, Vancouver real estate is on its long-term slide from over-priced, to affordable then to a bargain. Should be done somewhere in the next 10-20 years.

Current score: 4
127 X alexcanuck Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 8:45 am

Anonymous:
No, I mean like treating people respectfully and not thinking of them as “sandwich meat”.
A) Like you treat people?
B) Troll meat, after a very long slow-cooker session, can be delicious. In case you haven’t noticed, it is kind of up to you to protect yourself in this big mean world. Always has been, always will be. Sorry for that, sucker!
I strongly support fining predatory scam artists into bankruptcy to teach them to play nice, but also saying too bad, so sad to their victims to teach them not to be such greedy and naive fools.
As far as the builders, that’s just how the game was set up. I can’t really fault them, I just can’t. If they didn’t play by the rules they would go broke and be forced to leave the game. The planners, inspectors, code-writers, law-makers who allow them to hide behind a disposable liability shield, builder-sponsored “insurers” and so on bear far more responsibility in my view.

I’m sure there were and are some contract builders who stay small and do excellent work for ones willing to pay for it. But who, other than the long-term prideful owner, is willing to pay extra for a benefit that doesn’t show up until long after everyone else has left the table?
Realpaul; When the time comes, can you recommend a custom builder who meets that description?

Current score: 3
128 X Anonymous Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 8:53 am

NO -LYMPICS: I have worked in many different industries, and believe me I have never heard of anyone referring to people as “sandwich meat”. It must be unique to the housing industry, because that is one industry I haven’t worked in and the way I hear you guys talking I wouldn’t last a day in that industry. It turns my stomach to hear the way you guys talk about people.

Current score: -6
129 X Anonymous Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 9:03 am

alexcanuck: If readers don’t like my point of view they will click me down. That is the nice thing about the internet. It allows for democracy. Cheers.

Current score: -6
130 X MrBear Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 9:11 am

NO -LYMPICS: I agree that certifying home inspectors is a bit of a fig leaf. What I’d be more concerned about as an inspector (or in hiring one) is having Errors and Omissions insurance.

Current score: 1
131 X NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 9:37 am

100 observer Says:

January 12th, 2009 at 11:37 pm
I wonder what the penalties are to Fortress if COV doesn’t complete?

If Fortress imposes refinancing penalties, maybe what COV should do is borrow money to mount a hostile take over of Fortress (given its depressed share price, it could be around the same ball park as the amount they are now seeking), rescind the original deal, then liquidate Fortress assets to complete the project and retain full title to the development. Problem solved.
===========================================================

Observer:
That may be a brilliant strategy in the real world, but unfortunately “politics” and “politicians” are involved.

From todays SUN article:
http://www.vancouversun.com/En.....story.html

QUOTE:
No one knows for sure who will cover the $1-billion project’s future bills, but workers scurrying about the Southeast False Creek job clearly have a mission to finish on time so Vanoc can take possession this November.

——————————

It has been discussed that Plan B may be to literally put up the Olympic athletes in local hotels.

However, the press releases continually talk about VANOC taking possession in NOVEMBER.
That implies a “Given”, NOT an Option, and hence the deadline to complete appears to be set in stone and IOC/ VANOC is the driving force.

Fortress may be cleverly using this as piggybacked leverage as well, ie we have a limited number of days which tick down to Nov., NO extensions , NO abandoning the project.

Also… I highly doubt the IOC or VANOC would allow athletes to bunk at local hotels… that is ridiculous, could get ugly under any number of scenarios , and drive up the already outrageous security costs.

Conclusion:
–VANOC wants the keys in November.
–The last man standing (ie (COV) has to pay for completion and hand the keys over to VANOC/IOC , or else.
–Fortress has a teflon suit , and is at the sidelines laughing and reading P.T . Barnum’s biography and quotes .

=================================================
ALSO from the SUN story

QUOTE:
“He also noted about 40 per cent of the unique curved glazing used on the buildings came from a Korean supplier who didn’t understand right away the tight schedule Millennium was working under. So the glass was late in arriving at first, which set other related construction activities back.”
————–
Huh?

Dumb Dumb Dumb…
How can these people be involved in such a tight schedule and allow that to happen , especially when you need to get to lock – up , windows are crucial.

Did Bob Rennie advise them to go with such frivolous architectural embellishmnets. How much else was outsourced offshore ?

Can’t wait for more of the details to ooze out.

Current score: 2
132 X NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 9:56 am

Anonymous:

That’s my understanding why VCI was created…there is far too much “sandwich meat” out there as many of us VCI posters have unfortunately seen and discussed.

My own Thesaurus refers to sandwich meat as : sheep..lemmings..kool – aid swallowers,..Bob Rennie cult followers etc.etc.

That’s reporting a fact, not that we VCI posters are creating them nor have any intention of creating them.

As some have noted….there are still people willing to buy new condos in this collapsing market or even condos that are leakers.

If you want to get up on a soapbox and rant against the tide like King Kanute……go ahead. What amazes me is that I am getting this uneasy sense that too many people really think the current economic mess is a minor fart…all will be well in spring 2008 or certainly by early 2010.
(Cringe)

You have heard of Free Will:

No one is born sandwich meat….its a personal choice to BECOME sandwich meat.

Current score: 3
133 X NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 11:06 am

130 MrBear Says:

January 13th, 2009 at 9:11 am
NO -LYMPICS: I agree that certifying home inspectors is a bit of a fig leaf. What I’d be more concerned about as an inspector (or in hiring one) is having Errors and Omissions insurance
=======================================

MrBear

Well said.

However Re: Home Inspection …..Its waaaay too deep a topic to get into.

ERRORS and OMMISSIONS ?….is certainly something to keep in mind ( as with any professional ).

However, if the shite hits the fan…ERRORS and OMMISSIONS insurance is simply the defendant (ie Inspector)having ” bought or rented a Lawyer ” working for the deep pocketed Insurer , ……its not a blank -cheque settlement for the agrieved client, who is a lowly ” One – Of ” likely mortgaged to the hilt.

All I am saying is be very careful.
It is or can be a mine- field out there.

If you as a potential home purchaser do not have a clue about building, or what constitutes good building practices, you WILL be ” meat in the sandwich ” .

Clearly understand the obligations:
(i) Govt has to you (ie F*ck all )
(ii) the Developer has to you …often D*ck all (see Warranty)
(iii)Warranty(if still in effect and read the fine print)
(iv) and Reatlturd has to you ( ahahahahaaha)

Understand now ?

Find ways to educate yourself….it is one of THE most important decisions in your life.

Now…off the soapbox I go.

Current score: 1
134 X Anonymous Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 11:37 am

scullboy:

Wow!

You are onto something here
“He spent so much time trying to figure out how to wiggle out of work, he’d have been better off just doing his job.”

I refer to this exact same behaviour as: “They put more effort into deflecting the work than doing it.” See it every day.

regards

arit

Current score: 2
135 X NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 11:50 am

Gallery of photos for the Olympic Village

http://www.vancouversun.com/En.....story.html

Current score: 0
136 X realpaul Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 12:08 pm

1) Values in Europes most successful economy ” The Irish Miracle” is tanking bigtime. Vancouvers economy is ranked below Arkansas. We do not have a ‘world class’ economy. Adjust for the scenery and Vancouver is little more than two table stall in a flea market. The economy of tourism was growing when the CDN dollar was trading at fifty cents to the US buck and 3-1 on an English pound but that is not happening anymore and since it’s not cheap as suds anymore people aren’t going to come here for the precious little Vancouver has to offer compared to othe destinations world wide.

http://www.irishtimes.com/news.....20759.html

2) I said that the VOC would try to float a bond issue, they have made that announcement. This ‘tax and spend’ mentality is so typical of the socialist politicians. In fact they have assets to sell, staff to lay off, benefits to claw back, contracts to renegotiate, projects to postpone, favours to cancel etc etc. These socialist dipshits just don’t get it. Instead of rationalizing thier buisness structure by running simple normal efficiencies , the only thing they can dream up is
” Lets lay another blanket of tax on the citizen”. The citizens of Vancouver are just ‘SANDWICH MEAT” for the greedy maw of socialist greed in city politics.

In todays market the best they can do is around 11% ( I confirmed that with a money guy I know) this will run the city approx., $110 Million a year on intrest charges alone for the 1 Billion they forecast the costs to be. Thats over 2 million a week thats not going into school books for the classrooms.

It’s started to be mentioned by COV publicist circles that the asset can be realised and the costs mitigated over time. They envision holding the condos off the market ‘until things improve’. The Professor from the Sauder School of Business at UBC that BCTV interviewed a couple of nights ago confirmed what I have previously said in that the average recovery time of a real estate market has been 6 years!!!!! 6 years is a long time to leave 1 million sq ft of condos vacant. Don’t even think about the carrying costs at 11% over 6 years and depreciation and maintenance and mgmt etc etc etc. In fact the last ‘recovery’ took 11 years.

I also heard one of the COV apologists say that Vancouver was the the only city in the world with waterfront build out, what freaking nonsense. Every country in the world that has waterfront has build out. I just visited Amsterdam, HK and Singapore , and guess what, all had waterfront build out. Singapore has a five billion dollar casino project that has stalled and Singapore is ten times the world class city the Vancouver media drones claim it to be.

Current score: 8
137 X observer Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 12:12 pm

no-olympics: COV doesn’t have the expertise to do something like that, but it was fun imagining it anyways.

As I see it, there are two obligations COV needs to meet. One is to IOC and probably it would be hard to come up with an alternative in such a short time.

The other is the penalties to Fortress if it doesn’t complete. If Millennium can’t complete on its own, COV needs to step into provide funds to fulfill its obligation. If there are refinancing penalties, it should normally be Millennium who has to pay I should think (because COV only has to ensure completion, it doesn’t necessarily mean it has to borrow from Fortress), but I guess ultimately, they will just tack that on what they ask from COV.

Although it is possible COV can get back this money from future sales, the fact that Fortress seems to be the first creditor doesn’t bode well in this regard as you pointed out.

Ultimately, it boils down to saving face and maintaining our ‘world class status’. The question is whether this will mean the city will deteriorate in standard of living due to future lack of funds for other things. It is often said the olympics boosts the local economy. On the contrary, I think the opposite is true. It is meant to be a drain on the host citizens as a test to see if they can withstand it without descending into a slum like conditions. If they can, then they can call themselves ‘world class’.

Current score: 2
138 X NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 12:26 pm

Olympic Village:

As the detail ooze out…it looks like they also bought the “GREEN” Coloured Kool – Aid.

By that I refer to all those LEEDS standards etc.
If not mistaken, they will have “Green Rooves” on some buildings.

City of Richmond made “Green Rooves”mandatory for certain classes and sizes of Non Residential buildings, and acknowledged that would add approx 20 % to the construction costs.

So… if the Olympic Village is going this route…maybe time to cut back on this “GREEN” frill ? Any smart condo shopper may see the premium that gets rolled into the price , balk and then walk.

However, the dipshites in COV probably locked LEEDS and “Green Rooves” into the Olympic Village contract. It will end up being another waste of $$$ Millions of Taxpayer dollars.

Current score: 2
139 X realpaul Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 12:42 pm

1) Does this sound familiar. Is this a parellel or what

In discussing the €110 billion given in loans to developers, Mr Kelly said a typical regional housing collapse in the US saw banks sustain a 20 per cent loss on these loans, but the narrowness of the Irish market increased the risk of “substantially larger losses” for Irish banks.

A future headline will read;

‘ The narrowness of the Vancouver market increased the risk of substantially larger losses.’ You read it here first.

Current score: 2
140 X realpaul Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 12:47 pm

If you have a nagging feeling like the world is a bit to contrived,. If you can handle a good dose of reality in the morning.

read George Ure at Urban Survival

http://www.urbansurvival.com/week.htm

Current score: 0
141 X NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 12:55 pm

You probably saw that older fellow who said on the News (re the Olympic Village bailout) who said ” What? they better not ask me for a single penny”…or words to that effect.

They have repeated that video clip.

PREDICTION: It will become a rallying cry.

As realpaul has researched…it may cost over $ 100 Million per year in just the INTEREST payments. That is over 10% of COV annual budget….again just the I-N-T-E-R-E-S-T payments , with the goal to fulfill its contractual obligations…and avoid penalties.

JOB # 1:
The COV is in a major stickhandling exercise with ” COV Citizen-Taxpayer Bank “.
Simply stated, the objective is to fund the Olympic Village “White Elephant” to birth on NOV. 2009 , when VANOC then adopts it.

What happens AFTER Feb 2010 is not even a concern/focus right now for the COV.

The PERFECT STORM has placed the COV in between a Rock and a Hard Place.

You will see a COV Citizen based in Revolt re Tax Increases. They don’t care who is to blame. In a declining RE market,… they will already feel robbed with more salt rubbed in the wounds, it’s simply Human Nature.

COV Vision party will be forced to slash and burn City services…Staff layoffs…it won’t have any choice.

Citizens will harbour grudges to City Civil Servants who have “safe jobs” as their own jobs are dubious if not already laid – off.

Batten down the hatches.

PS
I don’t wish for this to happen, but I cannot for the life of me not see it unfolding as outlined.

Current score: 9
142 X realpaul Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 12:59 pm

No-lympics you wrote about the CBS oil report

Some additional info

http://seekingalpha.com/articl.....b_articles

Current score: 0
143 X realpaul Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 1:07 pm

London is hosting ‘ the real Olympics’ in 2012 so shouldn’t the real estate market be booming. I mean isn’t London a ‘world class city’ like Vancouver?

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9e94.....ck_check=1

Vancouver may follow Salt Lake, Athens, Sydney and Beijing as a post Olympic Mega Bomb. Taxpayers and all those wonderful pre olympic fluff pieces have blown up in taxpayers faces everywhere. It seems a few dozen very well placed people get lucky and rich while evryone else gets left holding the bag. Facts speak for themselves.

Current score: 4
144 X Anonymous Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 1:13 pm

realpaul: Give it a rest, sandwich meat man.

Current score: -5
145 X asalvari Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 1:21 pm

realpaul:
..follow Salt Lake, Athens, Sydney and Beijing as a post Olympic Mega Bomb. …

realpaul, try to look at the bright side, at least we know Vancouver is not going to follow up Sarajevo’s post Olympic mega bomb..

Current score: 4
146 X NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 1:29 pm

Post # 144 aka “Poo flinger”

Don’t you ever run out of ammo ?

Are you down to the vital organs soon/yet ?
Let us know.

Current score: 1
147 X NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 1:36 pm

Well ….think of the Positive.

Think of the Olympics like a visit to the Dentist

2010 “root canal” is over in about a year

The Brits have got 3+ years to live in sheer fear , loathing and dread of the same before its over.

At least we held “Olympics LITE” ie the cheaper Olympic WINTER games.

Her Majesty Q.E. may have to put the Family Jewels in hock.
Prince Harry can be an opening act for Andrew Dice Clay .

Think positive !

Current score: 6
148 X NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 1:42 pm

142 realpaul Says:

January 13th, 2009 at 12:59 pm
No-lympics you wrote about the CBS oil report

Some additional info

http://seekingalpha.com/articl…..b_articles

======================================================
realpaul

Read it … Mucho Thanks.

60 Minutes gave a very good primer on how Futures Markets work.

Overall , the 60 Minutes Report made too much sense for a denialists to shoot it down.

They tend to do their research/homework , and their investigative credibility is their main asset.

Current score: 1
149 X I voted 'No' Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 1:45 pm

It seems a few dozen very well placed people get lucky and rich while evryone else gets left holding the bag. Facts speak for themselves.

Some get to be senators.

Current score: 6
150 X Anonymous Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 1:52 pm

I voted ‘No’: Some get to retire early off the money they made from the “sandwich meat” and then they start complaining when they have to pay a few thousand to the city whose hand they so handsomely fed from.

Current score: -3
151 X realpaul Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 1:55 pm

Anonymous:

Blog Troll 35 up, 8 down
1.(n) -A pathetic and moronic person who maintains a blog with an unhealthy obsessive-compulsive drive, especially angsty goths (sorry to all the likeable goths out there). The content of their blogs usually includes events that no sane person would care about. Here’s sample of what a blog troll might write on their blog:
“today, I ate a sanwich. It bad – it was just ok, mediocre, I guess you could call it. After that I read a few chapters out of an Anne Rice book and was deeply moved by her erotic descriptions of gay vampires fornicating. . Then I took a nap.

2.(n) -A depraved individual who sits in front of a computer all day and posts flames of an idiotic or pseudo-intellectual nature on public forums and private websites. Many of these people actually become emotional about what is said on the afore-said mediums and feel it is their duty to punish those who disagree with them. They too may pursue this object in an obsessive-compulsive manner.

Current score: -1
152 X realpaul Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 2:12 pm

Meanwhile back in this galaxy, real concerns are showing up.

I have been noticing more and more local professionals being laid off. I know several of several cases myself. Ex: A friends wife who’s bio-tech lab was shuttered ( staff of around 25 and other examples , several engineers , top flight managers, one lawyer, and a notary whose buisness is on life support due to the real estate market implosion resulting in the layoff of several clerical staff. These are just people I know. How about you? Whats the actual bodycount? I don’t see this story in the local rags. Aside from the announced layoffs at Microsoft, Nokia, telus IBM, and 40,000 construction jobs etc etc the news has become suspiciously silent?

Are any of you seeing the same thing? This article brought the subject back into focus. There has been a LOT of high end lay offs in Vanc, not just the construction jobs.

One article I posted about Ireland stated that it will be difficult to retrain the construction workers because of a general lack of education ( same case here especially among the South Asian community , the boys barely if ever graduate high school , put no emphasis on education) but what happens to these other really smart people when there is simply no work anywhere on the continent?

BTW , many of these high tech jobs are held by new Canadians.

These are the bullwark of the upper end housing market; what happens when this demographic is stymied in it’s economic advancement? Who is going to support the higher end products on Wahhhhhncouvers ‘world class’ waterfront.

http://www.marketwatch.com/new.....F62B227%7D

Current score: 3
153 X NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 2:21 pm

How can troll posts be recognised?

No Imagination – Most are frighteningly obvious; sexist comments on nurses’ groups, blasphemy on religious groups .. I kid you not.

Pedantic in the Extreme – Many trolls’ preparation is so thorough, that while they waste time, they appear so ludicrous from the start that they elicit sympathetic mail – the danger is that once the group takes sides, the damage is done.

False Identity – Because they are cowards, trolls virtually never write over their own name, and often reveal their trolliness (and lack of imagination) in the chosen ID. As so many folk these days use false ID, this is not a strong indicator on its own!

Crossposting – Any post that is crossposted to several groups should be viewed as suspicious, particularly if unrelated or of opposing perspective. Why would someone do that?

Off-topic posting – Often genuine errors, but, if from an ‘outsider’ they deserve matter-of-fact response; if genuine, a brief apposite response is simply netiquette; if it’s a troll post, you have denied it its reward.
Repetition of a question or statement is either a troll – or a pedant; either way, treatment as a troll is effective.

Missing The Point – Trolls rarely answer a direct question – they cannot, if asked to justify their twaddle – so they develop a fine line in missing the point.

Thick or Sad – Trolls are usually sad, lonely folk, with few social skills; they rarely make what most people would consider intelligent conversation. However, they frequently have an obsession with their IQ and feel the need to tell everyone. This is so frequent, that it is diagnostic! Somewhere on the web there must be an Intelligence Test for Trolls – rigged to always say “above 150″

Current score: 2
154 X realpaul Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 2:22 pm

Move over squirrel lovers, theres a new dark meat in town

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/251/story/59566.html

Current score: 0
155 X NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 2:23 pm

“Internet Trolls”

Intelligence Test

http://www.flayme.com/troll/quiz.shtml

Current score: 1
156 X NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 2:25 pm

More on TROLLS

http://www.flayme.com/troll/angler.shtml

Current score: 1
157 X NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 2:28 pm

Realturds;

Surplus inventory

Soylent Green : The Sequel

Yummmm ?!?

Current score: 1
158 X asalvari Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 3:23 pm

back on the topic(of interest, I think)

I am watching the Dunbar area in Vancouver west side. The number of listings are quite flat, sitting on 66 total for January so far (no change after the expired listings got removed at the end of the year)

Is anybody seeing inflow of new listings, and where?

Current score: 1
159 X realpaul Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 3:52 pm

Shiller said “Vancouver is the most bubbly city in the world, I believe,” he said. “They’ve had very volatile prices in the past. The rest of Canada, I don’t get quite such extreme stories.”

Indeed, during a two-year period between 1979 and 1981, house prices in Vancouver jumped nearly 120 per cent — only to be followed by a spectacular crash that wiped out nearly all of those gains.

I was just touching on the rent-buy ratio in Vancouver today. It is so out of whack ( second highest in the world)
that prices can easily be seen falling 80%.

It was brought to my attention today that Sydney Australia ( a sister city to Wahhhhncouver in many ways) has been in freefall for much longer and continues to adjust. The fall off started to happen during the Olympics and has deteriorated due the global recession. So goes the world, so goes a backwater service provide like Wahhhhhncouver.

Current score: 3
160 X NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 3:57 pm

Globe and Mail

” Minutes of 2007 meeting show council knew athletes village was already in trouble ”

http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....tory/Front

QUOTE
VANCOUVER — Vancouver City Council knew as far back as the summer of 2007 that the Olympic athletes village was in jeopardy and that the city’s own financial investment in the project was at risk, The Globe and Mail has learned.

At an in-camera meeting held that June, staff informed councillors that project developer Millennium Development Corp. was in “anticipatory default” – in other words, it was anticipated the company would not be able to meet its financial obligations to the city, according to minutes of the meeting.

QUOTE
Out of that meeting, the Non-Partisan Association party majority on council agreed to provide Fortress with the loan guarantee and a completion guarantee, obligating the city to complete the project in the event Millennium was unable to. That also meant the city would be responsible for paying the Fortress loan in the event Millennium defaulted.

QUOTE:

And that point, the city’s exposure was $500-million. Fortress, meantime, had first charge on the property, which meant that in the event of a default by Millennium, Fortress would be first paid of any creditors.

===================================================

So……this actually goes waaay back almost 18 monthe ie summer of 2007.

Now I am curious if Fortress , in effect, has a lien on the COV’s land , or will COV have to surrender it soon.

Current score: 1
161 X NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 4:00 pm

Wanker-couver

Wankers running for cover

Current score: 2
162 X brokerealtor Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 4:01 pm

Very few new listings, sellers not reducing enough to sell, but still people buying(very few).Most # of sales in smaller west side condo’s $200-400K taking the lead currently showing 15 units sold this year. These are currently percieved by buyers as good value, all units selling below tax assessed value.

Current score: 1
163 X Anonymous Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 4:18 pm

NO -LYMPICS: Try to stay on topic.

Current score: -1
164 X NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 4:22 pm

163 Anonymous Says:

January 13th, 2009 at 4:18 pm
NO -LYMPICS: Try to stay on topic.
==================================================

I am
Trolls = Wanker Couvers = running for cover

Current score: 1
165 X Anonymous Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 4:26 pm

NO -LYMPICS: Nobody wants to hear about your obsession with the olympics anymore.

Current score: -2
166 X realpaul Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 4:40 pm

Our new troll Anonymous has become a regular poster so it deserves a handle

I think something like

2.(n) -A depraved individual who sits in front of a computer all day and posts flames of an idiotic or pseudo-intellectual nature on public forums and private websites. Many of these people actually become emotional about what is said on the afore-said mediums and feel it is their duty to punish those who disagree with them. They too may pursue this object in an obsessive-compulsive manner.

will do

Current score: 2
167 X realpaul Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 4:43 pm

brokerealtor:

1)So the report is that 15 people have lost money in your area of intrest.

2) Assesments mean nothing, the government just proved that by asking everyone to disregard the assesed value printe on thier recent tax assesment notice.

Current score: 0
168 X arit Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 4:44 pm

I wonder if it’s the same anonymous all the time or there’s a whole bunch of guys who are so insecure with themselves they cannot chose a nickname.

Just stay in the dark, fire at will, never assume responsibility for their words.
Even our beloved satv has a nick (5, actually), so when we belittle him, he knows it’s aimed at him and it is done because of something he said.

Staying anon is the virtual equivalent of spitting at someone from a roof and hiding. Want to spit? Come face to face. Then spit.

Regards

arit

Current score: 1
169 X arit Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 4:45 pm

Anon, I also have a nick suggestion for you: How about “Anonymouse”?

Current score: 1
170 X realpaul Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 4:54 pm

arit:
Right on, and so polite to, such restraint. Admirable.

I have been thinking about this rent-buy ratio all day. I seem to rememeber as a student that the average historically was below 10. I just did a quick calc off the current median of 640K and got 44!!!!!!!. This market is so out of whack with reality it’s insane. I read that this ratio was the second highest in the world and that got me thinking. Timberrrrrrrrrrrr !!!!!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_estate_bubble

Current score: 4
171 X markx Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 5:18 pm

NO-LYMPICs: I think Vancouver get the worst timing. Brits at least get to have their party at a time the world economy is likely in slow recovery. They also got 3 years to find cheap constructions and materials, rather than building facilities with the highest cost in two decades. Plus with Vancouver as a precedent, they get to downsize the Olympics while telling the IOC to get lost on many agreed on constructions. The head of IOC already said repeated that no Olympics is better than another, and the games is in “survival mode”. I’m pretty sure London can get away with housing Athletes in university dorms and hosting competitions in high school gyms, if they so choose to. Vancouver on the other hand, are way too far along the line in building the white elephants. IOC wouldn’t complain too much if Vancouver downsize the Olympics now, but the money is spent, and tickets are already sold. Tough luck. One thing though, I’m not fond of all the security measures. Tell the tourists and atheletes to hire their own bodyguards if they feel insecure. To hell with the 1 billion bill.

I still believe that China single-handedly delayed the financial crisis by a few months, just so that they can have the last party in at least a decade. Once the Olympics is over and the hype cools a bit, they gave up holding back the tide. I would call that the true cost of the Beijing Olympics. As far as I know, it’s 100 billion+ USA, and they don’t even have white elephants to show for it.

Current score: 1
172 X NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 5:32 pm

2012 Games

Cost of 2012 Olympics ‘up £900m’

The costs of the games have gone up 38% in just over a year
The expected cost of the 2012 London Olympic park has risen 40% since the games were won in July 2005, Culture Secretary Tessa Jowell has told MPs.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_.....167504.stm

QUOTE:

Asked who would meet the extra £900m cost, Ms Jowell said discussions were on-going, but the earlier “memorandum of understanding” had been for overspends to be met by a mix of London council tax payers, and lottery games.

‘Entirely predictable’
QUOTE:
Shadow Olympics minister Hugh Robertson said: “The secretary of state has admitted to a 40% increase.

“She has failed to disclose the true cost of VAT, contingency, building cost inflation and security, much of which was entirely predictable at the time of the bid.

================================================

Same Olympic Shite, different City

Current score: 0
173 X brokerealtor Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 5:37 pm

I just check these blogs out every few days for curiosity sake But looks like Realpaul+No-lympics+Arit-supraboy You guys need to get out more often and see what’s happening in the Real Vancouver. Try to get away from your computer for a few hours a day. Way too much on the stats side. Rent/Buy truthfully, if you could have ever afforded to buy you would have over the last 5 years, Looks to me like the ‘morons’ are having all the FUN! I have lost more real money & real estate in a divorce than RE phantom value appreciation/depreciation could ever get. If I didn’t read the blogs or newspaper I would have to ask Are things really that bad, even though I see they are, C’mon living in a van down by the river in Vancouver aint so bad! Once the floods receed and I clean out my van. Point is-how long can you guys re-iterate the same gloom & doom info? Call a girl & go out on a date! Wisdom from Living is far more interesting than internet bred intelligence. This is only a outside observation-do not take it personnally. Some of you need a liitle more LIFE experience.

Ps Beware of that cheap sugar coated chinese food you like so much!
OK I’m ready for the name calling

Current score: -2
174 X asalvari Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 5:46 pm

brokerealtor:
Thanks for the good info, its very succinct.

Current score: 0
175 X arit Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 5:48 pm

brokerealtor:

” Try to get away from your computer for a few hours a day”

What???? Are you kidding me? How can I do that? Is it done at all? Where? How?

Current score: 0
176 X brokerealtor Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 6:29 pm

#174 asalvari

C’mon ’succinct’ridiculous, bad word, not the right meaning

Current score: 0
177 X arit Says:
January 13th, 2009 at 7:49 pm

succinct: brief and to the point; having characteristics of both brevity and clarity.

I think he used it correctly.

Current score: 0
178 X NO -LYMPICS Says:
January 14th, 2009 at 9:38 am

# 173 Brokerealtor

Good post…LOL
BTW cheap sugar coated chinese food is the best…and I know how to make it too.

YOU sound like you have had an intersting life as well as the rest of us…good on ya.

I highly doubt many, if any, VCI posters haven’t been in the ” REAL world” and for a LOONNGG time with the rat race /war wounds to show for it. I highly doubt what is posted is sanitized fiction drafted by the vivid imagination of an Englsh Lit student.

Each of us gets something different out of this VCI blog…I just happened to stumble across it via a “link”, but once I started reading I was sorry I hadn’t found it sooner.

I have had suspicions re the RE market for years, since the late 1970’s early 1980’s… none of it made any real sense, especially seeing the lemmings dive into the market say every 6-8 years when in between cycles the product was cheaper.

I make no bones about criticizing the Olympics… but its more symbolic of how our so-called democracy is run…it is more a soft dictatorship. Our leaders actually fear, if not outright detest their constituents.

DEMOCRACY? We, the General Public are simply ATM’s for the politicians and their “cling -ons entourages” agendas, and they kiss our asses just before the elections to re-load for the next go around.

We VCI posters may be future leaders or lead the charge to provide the enema our leaders and their cling -ons desperately need, in my view they have been exposed as “Emperors with NO Clothes” as they twist in the wind…..clearly the paths we have been on, or lead onto even on a global front , were not in anyone’s long -term best interest.

RE market is often the THE key indicator in any given economy, and looks what has happened…question is was the collapse a passive reflection of the global ecomomy or an active manipulation that created a global tanking of all else ?

You chose the handle “brokerealtor”…
I guess we can read into that something…but maybe that handle may have been different if things had been done differently.

You seem to be an upbeat person….and I think most of the VCI posters are as well , and very content with our personal lives. However it’s not “doom and gloom” as an objective .., its reporting on the global crash and burn which many of us had feelings was not a matter of IF but WHEN.

If our leaders hadn’t failed us and failed us miserably, maybe VCI wouldn’t even exist…but recall VCI was kept going by popular demand. It’s an info and opinion swap,and most posters back up their opinions with FACTS and FIGURES etc .

Knowledge IS Power.
I have learned a lot from VCI and I thank my fellow posters for that valuable gift of their contributions and hope I can reciprocate.

Current score: 1
179 X Hhhaawt Says:
January 15th, 2009 at 8:10 pm

I really liked the “movie”. Finally some real reportage.

Today, by the PNE, a for sale sign.. and it posted the price too! 1st time Ive seen that.
Naah, not buying.. what if it burns down? Oh.. there is a thought, will we have more house fires now? Insurance money.

Current score: 0

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