40% of employers freeze pay
From this mornings Globe and Mail 40 percent of employers freeze pay:
More than 40 per cent of Canadian companies have now imposed, or plan to impose, salary freezes this year, according to a survey released Tuesday by consulting firm Towers Perrin.
And “salaries for senior executives are more likely to be frozen than any other group,” Towers Perrin found in a survey of 246 organizations.
The report comes a day after three major Canadian banks – the Bank of Montreal, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce and Bank of Nova Scotia – reported that their chief executive officers have agreed to voluntarily give up more than $15-million in compensation.
Towers Perrin reported that only 7 per cent of its survey participants have made significant reductions in staff levels, although another 18 per cent are considering major layoffs, the firm reported.
On the same subject, I’ve heard of a number of Vancouver companies that have been offering pay cuts / reduced hours in lieu of layoffs. How are you and your family being affected by the accelerating downturn in the local economy?
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February 3rd, 2009 at 12:13 pm
AWESOME time to buy Vancouver condos.
Look at those deep discounts off market prices. Its an amazing opportunity to get quality construction at an affordable price.
Mortgage rates are at historic lows and that brings affordability up!!!
February 3rd, 2009 at 12:16 pm
condomania..you should BUY!!
February 3rd, 2009 at 12:17 pm
Time to BUY!!!!
February 3rd, 2009 at 12:25 pm
This is the worst time to buy real estate, with the economy in the state that it is. Specuvestors, you know deep down in your heart, that Vancouver real estate prices will drop harder and faster this year because of the economic crisis – if you’re a smart specuvestor, you will cut price and sell. Once again, is there any doubt that real estate prices in Vancouver will drop 50% or more from its peak in May of 2008?
February 3rd, 2009 at 12:37 pm
Developers are running scared and offering FANTASTIC incentives. Polygon was giving away a BMW with a townhome purchase and sales were FRANTIC!!!! with 13 units sold in a single weekend.
Doom and gloom of the masses is OPPORTUNITY for the sharp knives in the drawer.
February 3rd, 2009 at 12:51 pm
They gave away those cool SUV type BMWs too.
This is just the start. If Polygon is gonna give away $ 70,000 worth of BMW just think what kind of a bargain a body can get if they try.
ABSOLUTELY no question the time to buy is here.
February 3rd, 2009 at 1:05 pm
40%, yup. We found out last week that salaries are frozen for 2009. The exceptions are those being promoted or those that are underpaid compared to industry averages. The decision was made in late 2008; guess it beats being laid off… however, with 10 years on the job, my severance would be pretty nice and then with extended EI and no mortgage to pay, I could pretty much take a package and then enjoy the time off skiing hiking etc as I could easily make it last over a year by which point things should be looking brighter!
I work in hi-tech, well financed public company; we could stop selling product tomorrow and keep going for 4-5 years before cash runs out.
February 3rd, 2009 at 1:06 pm
30% down in the of 2009.Party time just starts.
February 3rd, 2009 at 1:30 pm
Is it just me or does paulB’s numbers say that we have price increases in Jan? expected?
February 3rd, 2009 at 2:03 pm
Jan stats out:
http://www.rebgv.org/sites/def.....ease_0.pdf
HPI went up slightly from December. On RealEstateTalks VHB points out this could be due to the low sales volume this month making estimation difficult.
Expensive areas (Van West, North Van, West Van) got crushed YOY. West Van detached down 21%.
February 3rd, 2009 at 2:06 pm
looks like the desperation squad in posts 1,2,3,5,6. I think it used to be called ‘pissing into the wind”.
February 3rd, 2009 at 2:09 pm
Lots of bored realtors on this blog nowadays. Sucks to be you! Fortunately, your Association had some foresight when they changed the rules to allow you all to moonlight and keep your license. My industry won’t allow that, but we’re professionals.
Front page of Van Sun business section prices coming down another 13% this year… conservative. Must’ve been painful for them to publish that. Try 30% this year.
Good luck specuvestors and realtors you’ll need it.
February 3rd, 2009 at 2:12 pm
crashcart – I think post 2 was meant to be sarcastic.
February 3rd, 2009 at 2:23 pm
Mohican has more on the HPI:
http://housing-analysis.blogsp.....using.html
February 3rd, 2009 at 2:33 pm
OPPORTUNITY for the sharp knives in the drawer.
smart people know that housing markets move like molasses and we’re going into a worsening economic climate. Developers know this, that’s why they’re undercutting speculators and trying to unload inventory before things get worse.
The sharp knives aren’t in the drawer anymore. They’ve just started falling. Go ahead and try to catch one if you want.
February 3rd, 2009 at 2:38 pm
I would like to revisit the news release put out yesterday by the BCREA. I think something was missed and stinks like more of the usual crap.
Quote from CondoHype
Blame it on the recession. Blame it on high prices. Blame it on Liam Neeson being a total badass. The thing is, it doesn’t matter who you blame because at least we’re on the same page. According to the B.C. Real Estate Association, real estate prices will continue to fall in 2009. Experts and renters unite?!
The BCREA forecasts a 13 per cent price dip across the province. In Greater Vancouver, the projected dive is 14 per cent. While this may seem modest, even optimistic, give the pumpers points for making it to the party. Their forecast report refers to the collapse as “some additional downward pressure.” You have to laugh at the language. Downward pressure? What is this, a back massage?
Here’s the spin-free version: The BCREA expects the average home value in Greater Vancouver to decrease $7,147 a month, every month, in 2009.
Firstly , where does the 13% number come from. It does not corelate to any historical or statistical data, published or implied. The data indicates that the price may in fact drop 45% to 80%. Current employment trends, population and demographic trends or economic projections by the BC government give no credence to the BCREA ‘whisper number’ of 13%.
Second, I think this is a market psychology ploy dreamed up by the executive at the BCREA to attempt to forecast a ‘bottom’ to the market so as to set people up to start believing it if it is advertised often enough. Remember what the Nazi’s said about propaganda, ” If you tell a lie often enough, people will start to accept it as truth”.
This an exercise in the ‘big lie theory” because it isn’t based on any truth. It’s just a number flippantly grabbed out of the air down at the BCREA war room offices. I think the conversation went something like this
” Look, we obviously look like total liars to the general population by continuing to put out press releases saying the opposite of the truth.”
So, lets start putting out press releases that contain some massaged facts and we’ll obfuscate the truth by pushing a bogus number that looks official, that will be painful to some people but will be a number that people can grab on to and say”
” OK 10%, that’s not to bad, I can take a 10% hit”.
“This way we can try to work in the idea that it’s not going to be so bad, that there will a small but managable price drop. Maybe if we can hold the story up long enough we can induce some people to buy when the drop hits that 10% from here.”
” But, ” someone askes ” Aren’t we already down 10%? I read that in all the papers already today”
“Never mind” says the head turd, ” people forget easily what happened yesterday”
“It’s our job to create a new reality based on what we want to happen, not on what has happened or what actually may happen”
The BCREA is desperatly trying to manage the real estate downturn by managing the truth.
Well thats what I got out of the BCREA press release. Buyers Beware
February 3rd, 2009 at 2:53 pm
overzealous: Remember that their prediction of 13% drop is for 2009 only, and is on top of the drop so far. So their rosy scenario is that the benchmark house price in Vancouver drops ‘only’ by $200,000 from the peak by the end of’09.
I don’t think that’s impossible, though I wouldn’t be surprised to see it drop more, and then going into 2010 we’ll have been through a year filled with price drops, layoffs and wage freezes. How do you think the local market psychology will be doing then?
Either way, it’s hardly a recommendation to go out and invest in overpriced real estate.
February 3rd, 2009 at 3:06 pm
Re Oversupply:
What are the R-E-A-L numbers?
Yeah..how do we know that developers are not holding back a lot of info /data that could otherwise be made public ?
Maybe they have a lot of parties who have bailed which they could take to court, but don’t want to. The absolute last thing they want is raw ” gross ” data of what volume of product is actually available for sale.
If those hard core numbers ever came out…everyone starts to wear the low-balling sharks hat, and the market could tank so bad a Part- Time McDonald’s employee could pick one up.
February 3rd, 2009 at 3:20 pm
Now that 4,000 new units come and no buyers is
Metro Vancouver real estate markets in January recorded their lowest level of sales since the early 1980s, the region’s real estate board reported today, with benchmark prices down 11 per cent from the same month a year ago. The region’s realtors saw 762 Multiple-Listing-Service sales in January, 58 per cent below sales recorded in January a year ago, the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver said.
February 3rd, 2009 at 3:35 pm
crashcart: I don’t think of the CondoMania/TimetoBuy types as pissing into the wind, I think of them more as performance art. Echos from a future past, if you will.
On a related note, Pope clearly banned the right IP address on the weekend, didn’t he? Bravo, Pope!
February 3rd, 2009 at 3:40 pm
All this dooming and glooming and real estate prices are still holding up in Vancouver, what gives? People are listing houses higher than 6 months ago on the Chinese Newspapers.
February 3rd, 2009 at 3:49 pm
NO -LYMPICS: NO -LYMPICS:
The staggering numbers that came out in the US this morning were telling . It had been ‘sort of’ bandied about that there were ‘about 2 or 3 million units involved in the US and the press and public had become blase’ about the stats.
When it came out this morning that in fact the number of bank owned houses sitting vacant sitting vacant was actually 19 MILLION a lot more people woke up. It was like a slap in the face, a real eye opener. I’m a bit surprised it wasn’t front page news, but maybe the REAL numbers are just so huge it’s hard to get your head around if your a reporter or spokesman for the industry who has been soft selling the problem. The issue will be for the real estate industry spokesmen and apologists is probably something like,
“Holy Shit, how do we down play this !!!!”
Obviously the banking industry thinks releasing the actual numbers was something they had to get out of the way. we’ll get to that point when the tsunami is just too big to hide. Like the slow trickle of managed truth coming out of the BCREA we can expect ‘news’ to trickle out in what is probably being thought of as a prudent ploy to manage down the problem.
February 3rd, 2009 at 3:50 pm
Supraboy:
List prices don’t mean anything.
February 3rd, 2009 at 3:52 pm
Supraboy:
All Non Asians know that Dim Sum is the greatest gold mine!
How come you haven’t started one yet?
McDim Sum..nice ring to it.
Did you know that most Rich Asians with McMansions own Dim Sum ? Get the connection ?.
BTW: Good luck selling your neighbours house short… your neighbours shorts … whatever.
February 3rd, 2009 at 3:56 pm
realpaul:
Re the 19 million VACANT homes
Love them or hate them, I think the Yanks cultural mentality is to bring out the bad news, warts and all.
Unfortunately here in Canada, its either shoot, bury or ignore the messenger, if there is in fact,any messenger with the jam to lay it all out.
You can thank Comrade P.E.Trudeau for that….
February 3rd, 2009 at 3:58 pm
Supraboy: Troll.
February 3rd, 2009 at 4:15 pm
No Londonernow, he’s just you’re typical average no-nothing Vancouverite. For people that live in a people, they sure no nothing about bubbles and their properties.
February 3rd, 2009 at 4:16 pm
“List prices don’t mean anything.”
What about Benchmark prices?
Enjoy this bears:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_sDCK.....age002.gif
Detched: +1.7%
Attached: +.5%
Apartment: +.4%
February 3rd, 2009 at 4:22 pm
Supraboy:
The only thing your graph shows is the sales have been in a steady decline
February 3rd, 2009 at 4:36 pm
To Supraboy – and all the other hapless saps who think fighting this blog and all the others sources of information about the impending Vancouver real estate market crash – please recognize that your efforts are useless.
Just look at the latest real estate board numbers… notice anything? I’ll point it out for you… sales are way down.
To quote the real estate board’s news release: “Sales volumes in January were the lowest for that month since the early 1980′s”
Oops, missed that one didn’t ya Supraboy?
Guess what happens when nothing is selling? Okay, I’ll answer it for you again… “the overhang in the market will grow.”
It may not show up as listings just yet, but it’s like air that continues to silently fill a balloon. Eventually it’s going to burst onto the market. And prices will crash farther in 2009 than we saw in 2008.
You can vote down this comment. And you can fill-up this blog and all the other blogs with you silly comments. You can huff and puff but guess what, none of your efforts will make any difference. The Vancouver real estate market is going to collapse because people are not buying.
Vancouverites are realizing that we are not immune to economic devastation and with that realization comes a freeze-up in real estate buying. Next stop 50% down from the peak.
February 3rd, 2009 at 4:45 pm
MickeyFinn:
Even in New York the greed and denial is palpable and laced with ” Quiet Listings”. The lesson is ‘ask whatever you want, if it doesn’t sell it isn’t worth anything.
http://www.observer.com/2009/r.....t-listings
February 3rd, 2009 at 4:53 pm
San Francisco was supposed to be a ‘bullet proof’ real estate market, a market so tight that prices couldn’t possibly go down. Now with prices suddenly down 19% and sales tanking hundreds of billions of home equity has been vanished.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/.....15LT56.DTL
February 3rd, 2009 at 5:18 pm
Did anyone catch the new benchmark prices out today? I thought I heard it went under $500K on the 5 o’clock news. I may have mis heard. Thats quite a differance from the $648,421 posted last Jan 2008.
if you get , post it.
February 3rd, 2009 at 5:26 pm
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02.....01cov.html
So we are world class or not?
Free 1 month rent downtown Manhatten! If we do not have this we are not world class!
February 3rd, 2009 at 5:27 pm
That’s the composite benchmark that includes both attached and detached. Detached was $659,638, up slightly from last month.
And for those who think this indicates a market bottom, well all I can say is get out and buy. Keep a Realtor in his Beamer.
February 3rd, 2009 at 5:46 pm
Economic uncertainty drives real estate plunge across Lower Mainland
Home sales at lowest point since early 1980s, according to reports
http://www.vancouversun.com/Ho.....story.html
QUOTE:
In Metro Vancouver, realtors recorded 762 Multiple-Listing-Service sales in January, down 58 per cent from the same month a year ago, and the so-called benchmark price for a typical detached home down 11 per cent to $659,638 compared with January of 2008.
In the Fraser Valley, realtors booked a similar 59-per-cent decline in sales at 359, and the so-called benchmark for a typical single-family home down 9.6 per cent from the same month a year ago.
February 3rd, 2009 at 5:55 pm
Exchange risk could cost city $60 million
Loan for Olympic Village must be repaid in U.S. dollars bought when the loonie was aloft
http://www.vancouversun.com/ne.....story.html
QUOTE:
Well, here’s a simple scenario, to give you an idea of the enormous risks involved in what’s called “swap” financing. Don’t try this at home.
If you need to pay back $300 million in U.S. dollars, borrowed when the loonie was flying high, at today’s currency rates it would entail raising $360 million Canadian. Yes, that’s $60 million more than what you would have paid for the money if you borrowed the original $300 million when the loonie was at par.
How exposed is Millennium — and the City of Vancouver? Who knows? The cone of silence continues to hang over this mess. But the risk is real.
“Complicating this issue is the fact that the [Olympic village] loan is funded to [Fortress] in Canadians dollars, requiring the U.S. funds being pledged to be ‘swapped’ into Canadian currency,” Kenneth Bayne, the city’s director of finance, warns in a memo to council. “This exposes the loan to both interest rate and currency risks between the two countries [hedging risks].”
==============================
QUOTE:
Vancouver’s newish Mayor Gregor Robertson has ordered his staff to extract Millennium and the city from the loan with Fortress. A prudent move. But at what cost?
Add up the interest owed on the loan (at up to 11.5 per cent per annum), stiff penalties for early cancellation and the potential currency losses and the bill adds up. I’d be surprised, from those I talk to, if the Fortress payout is anything less than $100 million.
======
The plot thickens…
February 3rd, 2009 at 6:07 pm
The future of retail in Vancouver
New York’s most elegant shopping corridor, the Gold Coast of Madison Avenue, from 57th Street to 72nd Street, is pockmarked with vacancies as retailers flee sky-high rents. More than two dozen retail spaces are on the market and are either empty now or about to be. Windows that once showcased hand-tooled leather suitcases are now plastered with for-rent signs.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02.....mp;emc=rss
February 3rd, 2009 at 6:13 pm
Buy flat, get step-dad free
A woman is selling a flat along with its contents – that include her stubborn step-father who refuses to move out.
The Swedish lawyer inherited the top floor studio apartment when her mother died a few years ago, and now she wants to sell it.
But she has failed to convince her step-father to budge from the property, which overlooks Stockholm’s trendy Södermalm district, despite a court order obliging him to do so, reports the Daily Telegraph.
The 52-year-old man has remained in the flat under a joint ownership clause – but that has now been ruled invalid.
So, in a bizarre case of buy-one-get-one-free, the woman says the apartment will be sold to the highest bidder – furnished, complete with the step-father.
Mats Ljungquist, a lawyer involved in the sale, warned it could get “very messy”.
“Whoever buys the flat will have to organise the current tenant’s eviction, as clearly outlined in the advertisement we ran in the weekend’s papers,” he told The Local, Sweden’s English-language newspaper.
The apartment on Bergsundsgatan 13 in Södermalm will go up for auction on 26 August.
But prospective buyers should be warned that viewings ahead of the sale may prove difficult – as the current tenant is refusing to let anyone in.
February 3rd, 2009 at 6:43 pm
NO -LYMPICS:
Exchange risk could cost city $60 million
Loan for Olympic Village must be repaid in U.S. dollars bought when the loonie was aloft,
This is the same sort of thing that is sinking the RE markets and economies of places like Iceland, Ukraine, Latvia, etc.
World-class toxic financing.
February 3rd, 2009 at 7:08 pm
Oops! Previous post was supposed to be “for people that live in a BUBBLE…” I was being distracted at work. How embarassing.
February 3rd, 2009 at 7:43 pm
Probably half a dozen bored and boring bum patters, not even bothering to read each others’ gibberish.
Put all yer collective dead brain material together and it STILL wouldn’t equal the average 6th grade realtard.
Probably all fukkin COMMUNISTS too. Polygon giving away BMWs and THAT offends the little glee club bum patters?
Fork off. I wanna 70k BMW too.
February 3rd, 2009 at 8:03 pm
Where’s Drachen?
February 3rd, 2009 at 8:43 pm
Ship O’ Fukkin Fools:
I have a car, it’s quite nice, paid cash, got a real sharp deal for cash. I don’t covet. I own a 14 suite apartment building, I bought it in 1979, it’s paid for and has a great cash flow, but I wouldn’t touch an overpriced deal with A TEN FOOT POLE, even though I can well afford whatever I want. I got into my situation by not getting suckered into butt head deals like the ones the dipshits are so desperate to tout. I for one am enjoying the entertainment provided by the local developers shitting thier pants in public.
You are obviously one of the people (sheeple) that got suckered big time and are losing bigger. You can’t figure out how to stop the pain because you’re not very smart, you don’t have a plan and you’re frustrated and lashing out.
Maybe it’s your job thats gone, your income, your wifes or a number of things, but listen, why not really piss us all off and jump out a tall window. I hate seeing stains on the sidewalk, I’d be furious. But the bottom line is , nobody gives a fuck whether you’re dead or alive and you know it. You wake up every day knowing that you’re just a piece of shit. You’ll wake up at 3 AM tonight and want to hurt yourself. You dream about it every night from now on.
BTW Any idea what the true cost of the BWM to you is after you get suckered into the cheap misdirection ploy? Are you in possesion of a calculator.
February 3rd, 2009 at 8:52 pm
patriotz: Thanks for your endeavours in telling bears the truth.
Supraboy: Restaurant business sizzling.you were right
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/princ.....-busy.html.
February 3rd, 2009 at 8:58 pm
Aaaarghhh, really bad tech news after hours today.
EA now will cut 12 Facilities and layoff an additional 1100 people. This is really bad for the local tech community.
http://www.shacknews.com/onearticle.x/57072
February 3rd, 2009 at 9:06 pm
The topic is ” 40% of employers freeze pay.” It would appear that the other 60% are laying people off like theres no tommorow.
http://layoffblog.com/2009/02/
February 3rd, 2009 at 9:18 pm
aaaarghhh:
A really bad time for tech as Seagate cuts another 8600 on top of the 1000 + announced earlier. This is turning into an avalanche.
Seagate Technology (SEG) today said it will slash another 8,600 jobs worldwide, greatly expanding cost-cutting efforts as demand for its products continues to stall.
The layoff announcement adds to Seagate’s earlier statement that it would cut 1,400 jobs. All of the layoffs will take place before the end of the March quarter, reducing the storage and network management software manufacturer’s worldwide workforce by a total of 10 percent.
The majority of the layoffs will be in the Asia Pacific region, but the company also will consolidate its five U.S. research and development facilities into three. Seagate’s research facilities in San Jose, California, and Moorpark, near Los Angeles, both will be closed.
February 3rd, 2009 at 9:23 pm
IBM just announced 4th quarter profit of $4.43 billion, bright expectations for 2009 and layoffs of 16,000 employees world wide, or about 4% of its total staff. Toronto was hard hit with 2,900 jobs lost at the venerable Toronto IBM software lab. IBM is trying to remain low-key about the layoffs, which were revealed by “alliance@ibm” the union blog. Corporate layoffs are classic business response to a downturn and reflect the policy of taking opportunities to economize when the public expects it.
February 3rd, 2009 at 9:34 pm
Eric Sprott, Canada’s most successful investor says, ” If you thought 2008 was bad, 2009 is going to be a lot worse.
Smart read reserved for smart people.
http://www.321gold.com/editori.....20409.html
February 3rd, 2009 at 9:43 pm
aaaarghhh:
I am sorry pal but your numbers do not add up.
Toronto Lab is 2500 total people. IBM Canada is 20K people give or take. maybe MAYBE this 2900 (if correct) is for whole IBM Canada – which adds up to almost 15%.
February 3rd, 2009 at 10:11 pm
MrBear: “On a related note, Pope clearly banned the right IP address on the weekend, didn’t he? Bravo, Pope!”
Spoke too soon, didn’t I. Our griefer is back, and focusing largely on NO-LYMPICS. That wordpress karma plugin obviously needs some tweaking.
February 3rd, 2009 at 10:19 pm
Wow, VCI is clearly under attack. Some guys are really pissed and are now trying to shut up cruel reality, they probably blame us bears for their lack of immoral business and the fact that VCI contributes to have a better informed buyer. I wonder what the traffic numbers are for the site.
“Keep going Sancho, if the dogs are barking is a sign we are advancing. Don Quixote”
February 3rd, 2009 at 10:56 pm
timm,
They are in the Anger stage. It will soon be followed by Bargaining and then Depression.
RE the topic:
My pay is frozen. No bonuses or overtime. All kinds of stupid internal cutbacks messing with my ability to do my job. I could easily be laid off anytime. At this point, I think I’d be happier on EI.
February 4th, 2009 at 10:10 am
asalvari:
amigo, that section was cut out of an industry press release. The numbers from IBM are accurate unless the industry spokesman was wrong and you’re right. I didn’t write it.
Meanwhile I see Canfor announced another multi mill shutdown laying off an additional 2600 in BC. How many more layoffs in forestry before they just shut down altogether. 20000+++ in the past year. Ouch!
Panasonic announced a huge lay off today also whacking 20,000.
Garth Turners blog is excellent today. It’s all about Surrey. One thing I don’t think he considered was the extent of the lay offs from the construction industry implosion in one particularily large ethnic community. These people are being really whacked due to a serious specializtion in SFH construction jobs where every income in the household is dependant on SFH construction.
These people have by cultural preferance bought multiple homes to house the ever expanding families.
Typically as the money comes in the family bank will buy a second house for a brother and he’ll take a few bodies with him , then the process repeats itself through the brothers, cousins, nephews, grandchildren etc as finances allow.
Now however, the family income is dried up, no income, zip, because they all worked either for one another and that company has gone bust due to lack of work or they have laboured for another similar family business and that one being occupied in the same SFH buisness has also imploded, bam , gone, no more work.
Bottom line, I forecast many of these family constructs will have to start selling the extra properties in an attempt to get cash back into the unit and they will have to start moving back in with one another. I believe this hypothesis will prove to be correct and we will see a massive new inventory move onto the market far and above what Garth has suggested in his excellent article today.
Now , specialization has it’s additional economic drawbacks, as we have witnessed throughout history. The hugely insular immigrant community (with no name) in Surrey has primarily developed around servicing it’s community members only. Now that that community is getting whacked hard by the recession and no end in sight to an upturn in SFH construction, that will ripple through the SME community like a tidal wave of buisness failure due to cash drying up.
I expect to hear a major hew and cry from that community soon about government funding etc issues. However as most of the younger generation left high school ( as is evidenced by the higher than average drop out rate in Surrey) for work in SFH construction there will be very few opportunities to see a recovery quickly in that sector.
The new inventory will do nothing good for prices in Surrey.
February 4th, 2009 at 10:23 am
Odd cat defies laws of gravity
February 4th, 2009 at 10:48 am
CARNAGE IN THE LABOUR MARKET
OTTAWA – The carnage in Canada’s labor market persisted in January as the recession forced layoffs across a wide array of industries, analysts say, predicting the worst multi-month string of job losses since the early 1990s.
Employers are expected to have cut 40,000 jobs in January in the third straight month of employment decline, according to the median forecast of analysts surveyed by Reuters.
http://www.vancouversun.com/Ca.....story.html
They predicted the unemployment rate would jump to 6.8 per cent from 6.6 per cent in December, its highest level since June 2005.
The vicious circle of the economic downturn causing businesses to cut staff — which in turn causes a further slowdown — is in full effect, said Eric Lascelles, chief economics and rates strategist at TD Securities.
“The ball really can get rolling here and I think that’s probably the stage we’re at right now,” Lascelles said.
“We’re starting to see the layoffs happen. The economy is already clearly in recession. The question is how far does it go — and I think it probably goes a fair bit further,” he added.
If the forecasts are right, the economy will have shed 124,00 jobs from November to January — a magnitude of back-to-back job losses not seen since late 1991 and early 1992, according to Statistics Canada data.
February 4th, 2009 at 10:54 am
Economic uncertainty drives real estate plunge across Lower Mainland
http://www.vancouversun.com/Ho.....story.html
If this article suggests that we’re blasting through the 1980′s numbers then the next stop is the 1970′s and let me tell ya’ the 1970′s were much much worse.
hello mass poverty
February 4th, 2009 at 10:58 am
What? Tourism down in an Olympic world class city, say it ain’t so ma! Gordo, you’ve got some ‘splainin to do.
Layoffs hit B.C.’s tourism industry
http://www.vancouversun.com/Ho.....story.html
February 4th, 2009 at 11:07 am
Wage freezes are really just veiled layoff notices. Employers admit to planning for ‘reductions’ due to recessionary forces.
Gee, I’m glad my boss lied to me. The job I thought was secure is the differance to paying my huge mortgage or not. It’s a good thing I didn’t go out and ‘upgrade’ to a new house and rely on the BS that the real estate industry is puking out.
http://www.vancouversun.com/Ho.....story.html
I would suppose that it wouldn’t be a stretch to assume that because of Global Media being 4 toes into bankruptcy that they would be printing ( for money) any sort of nonsense that comes across the desk. I saw a news infomercial about some guy wanting to charter his boat on BCTV yesterday, what kind of ‘news’ is that.
February 4th, 2009 at 11:13 am
Oh Oh, the new Port Mann bridge is allready more than doubled in price after being announced only one week ago. Any guesses what it will be once it’s broken ground. My question is, given that the Provincial revenues are tanking into depression era numbers ( -10% for an extended period) where is the money coming from? Higher taxes? Huge debts and deficits? Thank you Gordon Campbell for being a spineless fair weather leader.
http://www.vancouversun.com/Po.....story.html
February 4th, 2009 at 11:15 am
That’s the scary thing about what they currently refer to as layoffs.
Are the layoffs temporary?
Or permanent ?
Many companies can only hold on for so long…lay off… then more lay offs…then ” last one to leave please turn out the lights ” !!!
Our leadership has clearly failed us, so is their only true role to spew white lies in a desperate attempt to soften the blows ?
This meltdown will wipe out jobs that will never come back.
February 4th, 2009 at 11:24 am
Great quote from Condo Hype today
oneangryslav Says:
February 4, 2009 at 1:15 am
Troy, are you for real? Sometimes it’s hard to tell snark from sincerity. Let me try to make you understand where you went wrong.
First, the 7k/monthly decline is based on the 14% drop predicted by Cameron Muir for Greater Vancouver between Jan 1/2009 and Dec 31/2009. This would take the average price of a Greater Vancouver home from $593,767 to $508,000. So, subtracting and dividing by 12, we get an average monthly drop for the average Greater Vancouver home of exactly $7,147.25.
Now, let’s assume that there are only two different types of properties in Greater Vancouver–houses that sell for $600,000 and houses that sell for $1.4 million. Let’s further assume that they lose value at the same rate, so that over twelve months each type of house will have lost 14% of its value. So, the cheaper house will be losing value at the rate of (600000-(600000*0.86))/12=$7000 a month.
The $1.4 million house will be decreasing in value by (1400000-(1400000*0.86))/12=$16333.33/month.
Here’s an added bonus for you, MTL:
Answer true or false: assuming hell freezes over and Cameron Muir is correct that a 14% drop in prices will occur in 2009 and assuming in addition that pigs start flying and real estate prices begin to recover in 2010, would a 14% increase in value from Jan 1/2010 to Dec 31/2010 bring prices back up to where they began on Jan 1/2009?
February 4th, 2009 at 11:38 am
NO -LYMPICS:
When a retail store or similar SME goes out of business, it’s gone, permanently. When Panasonic announced the layoffs this morning it was on the back of announcing that it was also closing 17 facilities. The mills that are idled are deemed ‘temporary’ even though many workers haven’t seen a paycheck for 24 months. The Fish plants are ‘out of fish’ how long will that last.
The construction industry is years away from recovery due to the inventory piling up. Even now in vancouver there is approx 18 months of product and that number is expanding exponentially. Think of all the door manufacters, window, roof tiles etc etc, and all the industries that support the major industries affected , these guys are all running thier last shifts if they’re not out the door allready.
What does ‘permanent’ mean , as opposed to temporary, it’s subjective isn’t it. The government is soft selling the story , they think you can’t handle the bad news.
February 4th, 2009 at 11:51 am
condohypefan: “Answer true or false: assuming hell freezes over and Cameron Muir is correct that a 14% drop in prices will occur in 2009 and assuming in addition that pigs start flying and real estate prices begin to recover in 2010, would a 14% increase in value from Jan 1/2010 to Dec 31/2010 bring prices back up to where they began on Jan 1/2009?”
In high school I used to work retail, and we weren’t allowed to do US/CA currency conversions because too many people were incapable of figuring out whether to multiply or divide by what. All conversion math had to be referred to our HR/payroll staff. I was surprised at the time, since that is elementary school math, but now I’m guessing a fair number of adults wouldn’t be able to correctly answer your question.
February 4th, 2009 at 12:14 pm
55 aaaarghhh
Good points:
The community you refer to may indeed be seriously impacted, which is unfortunate. The dynamic worked well when times were good. However, being so dependent on such a system can leave them quite vulnerable when things tank.
It’s a no -brainer that things will go from bad to worse, and all the collateral impacts that will be visited on them and others.
February 4th, 2009 at 12:28 pm
Fellow VCI posters;
I have had to contact the moderator twice this week about how the VCI site is being hi-jacked in various ways, …and was informed that the moderator is getting a bit overwhelmed by the trolls.
My own definition of troll is those idiots who think advertising ONNI is a good deal for umpteenth time and that type of BS.
If a troll wants to post that continually THEN PUT UP THE FACTS OR SHUT UP !!!!
SUGGESTION: Perhaps a warning from the Pope and then a 3 strikes YER OUT rule should apply to these trolls.
We have to keep in mind that the TROLL CONSPIRACY /PLOT may be to piss off the Pope/Moderators so he pulls the plug on VCI and the TROLLS win…(BAD!!!). In addition , many of us have the suspicion that many of these TROLLS are the Realturds etc. who don’t want free speech and the facts to affect their bottom line and that the “Big Lie” if repeated enough is beleived by greater fools (IF there are any left).
February 4th, 2009 at 12:40 pm
Watched Premier Campbell on the news and the Bridge announcement.
Man, does he look like he needs medication (or a stiff drink??) to calm the nerves…..he looks choked and shaking, can his hair go any whiter?
However, re the Bridge…IS now the time to build a $3 Billion bridge?(and double the size that previously suggested)?
Who will gain and who will pay ? The economy is tanking, the news is more and more in sync with what we VCI posters are stating…so Campbell has no way to accurately determine what funds he will have available. Back to deficit financing ?
Sorry, throughout the world there are bridges far older than the Port Mann…and still in use.
If its getting “too old”, that is often the fault of the maintenance aspects, or the old trick of delaying or denying maintenance so it looks old and decrepit “as the paint peels and the rust exposed ” so as to foster the hidden agenda, which is often lobby groups who “coincidentally ” benefit from the new replacement.
February 4th, 2009 at 12:51 pm
NO -LYMPICS: Thanks for your concern, but I can guarantee that the poster who has been doing this is neither a realtor nor a salesperson. Their goal is to make local developers look bad. It is someone who up until recently was very negative about the local market. It’s possible that they recently purchased a condo and are trying to talk up the market, but I believe it’s far more likely that they’re simply bored and this has become a game for them.
We’ve been quietly banning IPs to try to cut down on the trolling, and we’re working on fixing the comment rating system to stop abuse. If you try to load up this site and see this page instead, you’re on a banned IP.
February 4th, 2009 at 1:00 pm
depressionwatch
Yes…
Unlike other commodities, RE tend to last. Oversupply in perishable items (such as farm prodicts)relegates them to be recycled or even outright composted. Marketing boards are used to keep supply and demand in a stable equilibrium.
However, our Gov’ts have failed us miserably, by allowing the market to reach such “Tulipmania” levels that it has not just flatlined, it has imploded like a black hole and taken everything down with it. IMHO, we have a Metro Vancouver which should work in sync, but each member seemed to want to enter a pissing match of their own individual Local Gov’t share of the development pie . Drving throughout the Lower Mainland, I couldn’t beelive the pace of construction, and I have lived through several booms.
These new homes condos will not be recycled or composted like a perishable…..they will instead sit until they attract a buyer. Given this oversupply there is little or no demand for new, the normal cycle has been both corrrupted and overwhelmed.
I still predict the condo market will be the worst disaster, for many reasons….which leaves townhomes and detached SFH. My prediction is while all RE will be subject to declines… townhomes and SFH will do “less badly”, as in my view many prefer this to hi rise..hi- rises simply lured more suckers into a BIG TRAP yet all sorts of BS Marketing tried to state otherwise.
February 4th, 2009 at 1:05 pm
Thanks Pope:
Good to hear you are on top of it.
February 4th, 2009 at 1:12 pm
Pope, please share the banned IPs with everyone. We need to form a mob and track them down.
February 4th, 2009 at 1:28 pm
The Pope: That is a brilliant link for troll redirection. No wonder you are The Pope!
February 4th, 2009 at 1:37 pm
The Pope: “Thanks for your concern, but I can guarantee that the poster who has been doing this is neither a realtor nor a salesperson.”
I notice that the Friday’s open discussion, where we first saw major arrow clickage, resulted in my good friend blackdog being seriously modded up. I’m assuming our troll wouldn’t be stupid enough to highlight his own handle, would he?
Anyway, I have some UNIX/Apache/PHP skillz, if you need some help in that department.
February 4th, 2009 at 2:11 pm
The IBM layoffs really put the lie to anyone who thinks their job is safe because they work for a big company that is in good financial shape. I’m sure IBM will survive the depression just fine; that doesn’t mean IBM employees can say the same.
February 4th, 2009 at 2:35 pm
NO -LYMPICS:
I laughed hard when The Great Gordo said that because the ” Port Mann’ bridge was now forty five years old that it would have to be torn down anyway”. And that was the reason he was spinning to us as to why we should be willing to fork over many billions for the new 10 lane fantasy bridge over the Fraser.
May I remind myself how old the 1st and 2nd narrows Bridges are? What about Burrard St? All tear downs Gordo? Howz’ about the nasty old Brooklyn Bridge or San Francisco’s Golden Gate. All functionally obselete according to the Mighty Gordonski.
He also went loo loo in his speech when he said ‘that BC infrastructure development was good for the country”. Is that a hidden threat that you’re leaving us for national politics Gordy? And since when should additional BC tax dollars go for national Infrastructure when we’re alleady taxed through the nose by the Feds? Isn’t that double taxation Gordy?
Is Gordo really just setting us up for a big tax hike to mitigate the huge deficit he thinks he needs to get him through the Olympics?
I’ll betcha Gordo steps down ” for personal reasons’ the day after the Olympic games. I think thats why Carole Taylor bailed in advance.
Man , he really thinks we’re gullible.
February 4th, 2009 at 5:13 pm
blackdog:
Golden Gate Bridge? Exactly what came to mind….there would be riots in San Fran if they ever thought about demolishing that. Same with other classic bridges.
I am no fan of the NDP, but I am getting tired of Campbell, I think he is seriously losing it. His autocratic style has left him with a bunch of ass -kissers…with few if any challengers to his Crown. Pulling a $3 Billion bridge out of his ass? , WTF is he smoking ? He’s exposing himself as a wonk for vested interests ONLY, probably setting himself up for nice Private Sector job as a reward .
You are right…I also predict he’s gone after the Olympics…but then again he has legislated fixed election dates has he not? or will he change that too ?
February 4th, 2009 at 6:12 pm
NO -LYMPICS:
I say he appoints a successor and bails. We had that fiasco rained on us when the NDP kept naming ‘nominee premiers’ remember. We had three years of unelected government culminating in the unelected idiocy of Ujjal Dosanj when the NDP wanted to run out the clock and pound through all those crazy union contracts.
February 4th, 2009 at 7:25 pm
This just happened to a friend. I have no idea what to do so I’m asking: can you do something if you were laid-off after 20 years for no reason? They just cut personnel at the company where my friends works and she doesn’t know if she has any legal recourse. They’ve given her two months notice and that is it.
February 4th, 2009 at 7:40 pm
Via: Sorry, if you’re laid off from downsizing, that’s it. Two months is pretty generous by normal standards, sounds like they had some respect for the fact that she’s been there for 20 years at least. If you don’t have anything else in your employment contract, I believe they only have to give you two weeks notice.
Hopefully your friend has some savings cushion built up. There can be a long gap before the EI kicks in after you lose your job, you need to be able to cover about a month of lost income before you get the reduced income from EI, which is usually about half the normal income you’ve just lost. I don’t know how anybody would be able to get by on welfare in Vancouver.
Support your friend by taking them out (or better yet, inviting them over) for dinner. Pass on any contacts you have that would help her find new work. It’s tough out there, this is the time to be a good friend.
February 4th, 2009 at 8:14 pm
Thanks for the info. My friend is very depressed. He has worked there since he was 25. He also supports his father (who is sick) and is overwhelmed by this.
My husband just had a shuffling of his schedule but no hour cuts. I think I’m getting a wage freeze, but at least I’m not on the chopping block yet. Tough times.
February 4th, 2009 at 8:16 pm
It should be “she” in the paragraph above, sorry.
Anyway, it sucks all around. My friend worked in customer service for a large company btw. Most of us are scared as more and more friends seem to be heading to the chopping block.
February 4th, 2009 at 8:37 pm
blackdog:
We had three years of unelected government culminating in the unelected idiocy of Ujjal Dosanj
Unelected you say? What member of the government was unelected?
When you vote in a provincial election, you are electing your MLA for the next 4 years. The party with the most MLA’s forms the government, and the leader of that party becomes premier. It’s up to the parties to choose their own leaders, and they can do it any time they want. If you don’t like their choice, you can vote for the other party in the next election.
February 4th, 2009 at 8:49 pm
I’d like to say this in general to everyone: be there for your friends.
I’ve been laid off before. I thought I’d look forward to the time off, I have enough emergency savings to cover the bills, and I’ve got a lot of side projects I’d like to do.
It didn’t work out the way I planned. After just a few days I started getting depressed and I’m generally a positive person. The low feeling caught me completely off-guard, because there were all these thing I wanted to do with my free time.
The thing I missed was the moment to moment feeling of people NEEDING what I was providing that I had regularly while I was at work. The one thing that helped distract me from my self-pity was visiting with friends.
Go for coffee, invite them out for lunch, have them over for a chat. Just be there for them. Let ‘em rant a bit. Don’t complain about your job if you have one, because they miss the very things that you’re complaining about.
Be there for them now and it’s far more likely that they’ll be there for you in the future when you need them.
February 4th, 2009 at 9:01 pm
Via,
Remind your friend to use all resources. Being on EI gives him access to retraining programs and counseling. He can even make something good out of this if can train for an even better career.
There is no shame in using these resources as he has paid for them all those 20 years through his premiums.
To be blunt, if I landed in EI tomorrow, I wouldn’t just grab at any job. I could just get laid off again. I would concentrate on the skills upgrade while living on reduced income.
February 4th, 2009 at 9:17 pm
Re politics: I don’t know who to vote for. I can’t vote for the Campbell Liberals or the James NDP. A Green vote is just a protest vote as they won’t win any seats (not to mention their policies are a mishmash). But I still feel obligated to vote after so many have died for the right.
February 4th, 2009 at 9:25 pm
Patiently Waiting Says
“But I still feel obligated to vote after so many have died for the right”
Yes I agree wholeheartedly, go and vote, we owe them a lot for their sacrifice.
===
Also good to see the empathy out there for others…the economy may have a silver lining in that it forces us, or reminds us or makes us realize what IS truly important in life, and to be there for friends and family.
February 4th, 2009 at 9:49 pm
Via:
Thats the pits alright. 2 months is a generous notice these days. In some business they just walk you out one day and take your pass. The EI peeps aren’t your friends either. If your friend gets any severance EI divides it up into the sum you would recieve in weekly terms and you have to exhaust the severance before they will kick in.
Am I wrong anyone? I think thats how they work.
February 4th, 2009 at 9:51 pm
patriotz:
OK silly buggers it is then.
February 4th, 2009 at 9:58 pm
WORLDS GREATEST LOVER:
The good old days of getting laid off and going on UI are long gone for sure. Back in the good old days you could go to Mexico 6 to 8 months and surf Puerto Escondido and have your housemates fill out the UI cards for you when they came in the mail.
YES YES YES NO YES, this was the sequence of questions on the card. Houseloads of people were rotating in and out filing each others cards. The checks would pile up in your bank account and another groovy year would pass. It was a real blast to be on UI in the 70′s. Ah the good old days.
February 4th, 2009 at 10:08 pm
Patiently Waiting:
The big downside to voting is that when you do it seems to put you at the top of the list for jury duty. Anyone else have that experiance?
The justice system is so fucked up that they sentence 99% of the criminals to either a native healing circle or Nintendo time at home with go out privelages since the court never follows up on sentencing. Whats the point of getting screwed up by an indeterminate time in jury duty when the judge disregrds everything thats said or proven during the trial and sends the perp home to shoot dope for 6 months.