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February 3rd, 2009 at 9:34 pm
Eric Sprott, Canada’s most successful investor says, ” If you thought 2008 was bad, 2009 is going to be a lot worse.
Smart read reserved for smart people.
http://www.321gold.com/editori.....20409.html
February 3rd, 2009 at 9:23 pm
IBM just announced 4th quarter profit of $4.43 billion, bright expectations for 2009 and layoffs of 16,000 employees world wide, or about 4% of its total staff. Toronto was hard hit with 2,900 jobs lost at the venerable Toronto IBM software lab. IBM is trying to remain low-key about the layoffs, which were revealed by “alliance@ibm” the union blog. Corporate layoffs are classic business response to a downturn and reflect the policy of taking opportunities to economize when the public expects it.
February 3rd, 2009 at 9:18 pm
aaaarghhh:
A really bad time for tech as Seagate cuts another 8600 on top of the 1000 + announced earlier. This is turning into an avalanche.
Seagate Technology (SEG) today said it will slash another 8,600 jobs worldwide, greatly expanding cost-cutting efforts as demand for its products continues to stall.
The layoff announcement adds to Seagate’s earlier statement that it would cut 1,400 jobs. All of the layoffs will take place before the end of the March quarter, reducing the storage and network management software manufacturer’s worldwide workforce by a total of 10 percent.
The majority of the layoffs will be in the Asia Pacific region, but the company also will consolidate its five U.S. research and development facilities into three. Seagate’s research facilities in San Jose, California, and Moorpark, near Los Angeles, both will be closed.
February 3rd, 2009 at 9:06 pm
The topic is ” 40% of employers freeze pay.” It would appear that the other 60% are laying people off like theres no tommorow.
http://layoffblog.com/2009/02/
February 3rd, 2009 at 8:58 pm
Aaaarghhh, really bad tech news after hours today.
EA now will cut 12 Facilities and layoff an additional 1100 people. This is really bad for the local tech community.
http://www.shacknews.com/onearticle.x/57072
February 3rd, 2009 at 8:52 pm
patriotz: Thanks for your endeavours in telling bears the truth.
Supraboy: Restaurant business sizzling.you were right
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/princ.....-busy.html.
February 3rd, 2009 at 8:43 pm
Ship O’ Fukkin Fools:
I have a car, it’s quite nice, paid cash, got a real sharp deal for cash. I don’t covet. I own a 14 suite apartment building, I bought it in 1979, it’s paid for and has a great cash flow, but I wouldn’t touch an overpriced deal with A TEN FOOT POLE, even though I can well afford whatever I want. I got into my situation by not getting suckered into butt head deals like the ones the dipshits are so desperate to tout. I for one am enjoying the entertainment provided by the local developers shitting thier pants in public.
You are obviously one of the people (sheeple) that got suckered big time and are losing bigger. You can’t figure out how to stop the pain because you’re not very smart, you don’t have a plan and you’re frustrated and lashing out.
Maybe it’s your job thats gone, your income, your wifes or a number of things, but listen, why not really piss us all off and jump out a tall window. I hate seeing stains on the sidewalk, I’d be furious. But the bottom line is , nobody gives a fuck whether you’re dead or alive and you know it. You wake up every day knowing that you’re just a piece of shit. You’ll wake up at 3 AM tonight and want to hurt yourself. You dream about it every night from now on.
BTW Any idea what the true cost of the BWM to you is after you get suckered into the cheap misdirection ploy? Are you in possesion of a calculator.
February 3rd, 2009 at 8:03 pm
Where’s Drachen?
February 3rd, 2009 at 7:43 pm
Probably half a dozen bored and boring bum patters, not even bothering to read each others’ gibberish.
Put all yer collective dead brain material together and it STILL wouldn’t equal the average 6th grade realtard.
Probably all fukkin COMMUNISTS too. Polygon giving away BMWs and THAT offends the little glee club bum patters?
Fork off. I wanna 70k BMW too.
February 3rd, 2009 at 7:08 pm
Oops! Previous post was supposed to be “for people that live in a BUBBLE…” I was being distracted at work. How embarassing.
February 3rd, 2009 at 6:43 pm
NO -LYMPICS:
Exchange risk could cost city $60 million
Loan for Olympic Village must be repaid in U.S. dollars bought when the loonie was aloft,
This is the same sort of thing that is sinking the RE markets and economies of places like Iceland, Ukraine, Latvia, etc.
World-class toxic financing.
February 3rd, 2009 at 6:13 pm
Buy flat, get step-dad free
A woman is selling a flat along with its contents – that include her stubborn step-father who refuses to move out.
The Swedish lawyer inherited the top floor studio apartment when her mother died a few years ago, and now she wants to sell it.
But she has failed to convince her step-father to budge from the property, which overlooks Stockholm’s trendy Södermalm district, despite a court order obliging him to do so, reports the Daily Telegraph.
The 52-year-old man has remained in the flat under a joint ownership clause – but that has now been ruled invalid.
So, in a bizarre case of buy-one-get-one-free, the woman says the apartment will be sold to the highest bidder – furnished, complete with the step-father.
Mats Ljungquist, a lawyer involved in the sale, warned it could get “very messy”.
“Whoever buys the flat will have to organise the current tenant’s eviction, as clearly outlined in the advertisement we ran in the weekend’s papers,” he told The Local, Sweden’s English-language newspaper.
The apartment on Bergsundsgatan 13 in Södermalm will go up for auction on 26 August.
But prospective buyers should be warned that viewings ahead of the sale may prove difficult – as the current tenant is refusing to let anyone in.
February 3rd, 2009 at 6:07 pm
The future of retail in Vancouver
New York’s most elegant shopping corridor, the Gold Coast of Madison Avenue, from 57th Street to 72nd Street, is pockmarked with vacancies as retailers flee sky-high rents. More than two dozen retail spaces are on the market and are either empty now or about to be. Windows that once showcased hand-tooled leather suitcases are now plastered with for-rent signs.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02.....mp;emc=rss
February 3rd, 2009 at 5:55 pm
Exchange risk could cost city $60 million
Loan for Olympic Village must be repaid in U.S. dollars bought when the loonie was aloft
http://www.vancouversun.com/ne.....story.html
QUOTE:
Well, here’s a simple scenario, to give you an idea of the enormous risks involved in what’s called “swap” financing. Don’t try this at home.
If you need to pay back $300 million in U.S. dollars, borrowed when the loonie was flying high, at today’s currency rates it would entail raising $360 million Canadian. Yes, that’s $60 million more than what you would have paid for the money if you borrowed the original $300 million when the loonie was at par.
How exposed is Millennium — and the City of Vancouver? Who knows? The cone of silence continues to hang over this mess. But the risk is real.
“Complicating this issue is the fact that the [Olympic village] loan is funded to [Fortress] in Canadians dollars, requiring the U.S. funds being pledged to be ‘swapped’ into Canadian currency,” Kenneth Bayne, the city’s director of finance, warns in a memo to council. “This exposes the loan to both interest rate and currency risks between the two countries [hedging risks].”
==============================
QUOTE:
Vancouver’s newish Mayor Gregor Robertson has ordered his staff to extract Millennium and the city from the loan with Fortress. A prudent move. But at what cost?
Add up the interest owed on the loan (at up to 11.5 per cent per annum), stiff penalties for early cancellation and the potential currency losses and the bill adds up. I’d be surprised, from those I talk to, if the Fortress payout is anything less than $100 million.
======
The plot thickens…
February 3rd, 2009 at 5:46 pm
Economic uncertainty drives real estate plunge across Lower Mainland
Home sales at lowest point since early 1980s, according to reports
http://www.vancouversun.com/Ho.....story.html
QUOTE:
In Metro Vancouver, realtors recorded 762 Multiple-Listing-Service sales in January, down 58 per cent from the same month a year ago, and the so-called benchmark price for a typical detached home down 11 per cent to $659,638 compared with January of 2008.
In the Fraser Valley, realtors booked a similar 59-per-cent decline in sales at 359, and the so-called benchmark for a typical single-family home down 9.6 per cent from the same month a year ago.
February 3rd, 2009 at 5:27 pm
That’s the composite benchmark that includes both attached and detached. Detached was $659,638, up slightly from last month.
And for those who think this indicates a market bottom, well all I can say is get out and buy. Keep a Realtor in his Beamer.
February 3rd, 2009 at 5:26 pm
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02.....01cov.html
So we are world class or not?
Free 1 month rent downtown Manhatten! If we do not have this we are not world class!
February 3rd, 2009 at 5:18 pm
Did anyone catch the new benchmark prices out today? I thought I heard it went under $500K on the 5 o’clock news. I may have mis heard. Thats quite a differance from the $648,421 posted last Jan 2008.
if you get , post it.
February 3rd, 2009 at 4:53 pm
San Francisco was supposed to be a ‘bullet proof’ real estate market, a market so tight that prices couldn’t possibly go down. Now with prices suddenly down 19% and sales tanking hundreds of billions of home equity has been vanished.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/.....15LT56.DTL
February 3rd, 2009 at 4:45 pm
MickeyFinn:
Even in New York the greed and denial is palpable and laced with ” Quiet Listings”. The lesson is ‘ask whatever you want, if it doesn’t sell it isn’t worth anything.
http://www.observer.com/2009/r.....t-listings
February 3rd, 2009 at 4:36 pm
To Supraboy – and all the other hapless saps who think fighting this blog and all the others sources of information about the impending Vancouver real estate market crash – please recognize that your efforts are useless.
Just look at the latest real estate board numbers… notice anything? I’ll point it out for you… sales are way down.
To quote the real estate board’s news release: “Sales volumes in January were the lowest for that month since the early 1980′s”
Oops, missed that one didn’t ya Supraboy?
Guess what happens when nothing is selling? Okay, I’ll answer it for you again… “the overhang in the market will grow.”
It may not show up as listings just yet, but it’s like air that continues to silently fill a balloon. Eventually it’s going to burst onto the market. And prices will crash farther in 2009 than we saw in 2008.
You can vote down this comment. And you can fill-up this blog and all the other blogs with you silly comments. You can huff and puff but guess what, none of your efforts will make any difference. The Vancouver real estate market is going to collapse because people are not buying.
Vancouverites are realizing that we are not immune to economic devastation and with that realization comes a freeze-up in real estate buying. Next stop 50% down from the peak.
February 3rd, 2009 at 4:22 pm
Supraboy:
The only thing your graph shows is the sales have been in a steady decline
February 3rd, 2009 at 4:16 pm
“List prices don’t mean anything.”
What about Benchmark prices?
Enjoy this bears:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_sDCK.....age002.gif
Detched: +1.7%
Attached: +.5%
Apartment: +.4%
February 3rd, 2009 at 4:15 pm
No Londonernow, he’s just you’re typical average no-nothing Vancouverite. For people that live in a people, they sure no nothing about bubbles and their properties.
February 3rd, 2009 at 3:58 pm
Supraboy: Troll.
February 3rd, 2009 at 3:56 pm
realpaul:
Re the 19 million VACANT homes
Love them or hate them, I think the Yanks cultural mentality is to bring out the bad news, warts and all.
Unfortunately here in Canada, its either shoot, bury or ignore the messenger, if there is in fact,any messenger with the jam to lay it all out.
You can thank Comrade P.E.Trudeau for that….
February 3rd, 2009 at 3:52 pm
Supraboy:
All Non Asians know that Dim Sum is the greatest gold mine!
How come you haven’t started one yet?
McDim Sum..nice ring to it.
Did you know that most Rich Asians with McMansions own Dim Sum ? Get the connection ?.
BTW: Good luck selling your neighbours house short… your neighbours shorts … whatever.
February 3rd, 2009 at 3:50 pm
Supraboy:
List prices don’t mean anything.
February 3rd, 2009 at 3:49 pm
NO -LYMPICS: NO -LYMPICS:
The staggering numbers that came out in the US this morning were telling . It had been ‘sort of’ bandied about that there were ‘about 2 or 3 million units involved in the US and the press and public had become blase’ about the stats.
When it came out this morning that in fact the number of bank owned houses sitting vacant sitting vacant was actually 19 MILLION a lot more people woke up. It was like a slap in the face, a real eye opener. I’m a bit surprised it wasn’t front page news, but maybe the REAL numbers are just so huge it’s hard to get your head around if your a reporter or spokesman for the industry who has been soft selling the problem. The issue will be for the real estate industry spokesmen and apologists is probably something like,
“Holy Shit, how do we down play this !!!!”
Obviously the banking industry thinks releasing the actual numbers was something they had to get out of the way. we’ll get to that point when the tsunami is just too big to hide. Like the slow trickle of managed truth coming out of the BCREA we can expect ‘news’ to trickle out in what is probably being thought of as a prudent ploy to manage down the problem.
February 3rd, 2009 at 3:40 pm
All this dooming and glooming and real estate prices are still holding up in Vancouver, what gives? People are listing houses higher than 6 months ago on the Chinese Newspapers.
February 3rd, 2009 at 3:35 pm
crashcart: I don’t think of the CondoMania/TimetoBuy types as pissing into the wind, I think of them more as performance art. Echos from a future past, if you will.
On a related note, Pope clearly banned the right IP address on the weekend, didn’t he? Bravo, Pope!
February 3rd, 2009 at 3:20 pm
Now that 4,000 new units come and no buyers is
Metro Vancouver real estate markets in January recorded their lowest level of sales since the early 1980s, the region’s real estate board reported today, with benchmark prices down 11 per cent from the same month a year ago. The region’s realtors saw 762 Multiple-Listing-Service sales in January, 58 per cent below sales recorded in January a year ago, the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver said.
February 3rd, 2009 at 3:06 pm
Re Oversupply:
What are the R-E-A-L numbers?
Yeah..how do we know that developers are not holding back a lot of info /data that could otherwise be made public ?
Maybe they have a lot of parties who have bailed which they could take to court, but don’t want to. The absolute last thing they want is raw ” gross ” data of what volume of product is actually available for sale.
If those hard core numbers ever came out…everyone starts to wear the low-balling sharks hat, and the market could tank so bad a Part- Time McDonald’s employee could pick one up.
February 3rd, 2009 at 2:53 pm
overzealous: Remember that their prediction of 13% drop is for 2009 only, and is on top of the drop so far. So their rosy scenario is that the benchmark house price in Vancouver drops ‘only’ by $200,000 from the peak by the end of’09.
I don’t think that’s impossible, though I wouldn’t be surprised to see it drop more, and then going into 2010 we’ll have been through a year filled with price drops, layoffs and wage freezes. How do you think the local market psychology will be doing then?
Either way, it’s hardly a recommendation to go out and invest in overpriced real estate.
February 3rd, 2009 at 2:38 pm
I would like to revisit the news release put out yesterday by the BCREA. I think something was missed and stinks like more of the usual crap.
Quote from CondoHype
Blame it on the recession. Blame it on high prices. Blame it on Liam Neeson being a total badass. The thing is, it doesn’t matter who you blame because at least we’re on the same page. According to the B.C. Real Estate Association, real estate prices will continue to fall in 2009. Experts and renters unite?!
The BCREA forecasts a 13 per cent price dip across the province. In Greater Vancouver, the projected dive is 14 per cent. While this may seem modest, even optimistic, give the pumpers points for making it to the party. Their forecast report refers to the collapse as “some additional downward pressure.” You have to laugh at the language. Downward pressure? What is this, a back massage?
Here’s the spin-free version: The BCREA expects the average home value in Greater Vancouver to decrease $7,147 a month, every month, in 2009.
Firstly , where does the 13% number come from. It does not corelate to any historical or statistical data, published or implied. The data indicates that the price may in fact drop 45% to 80%. Current employment trends, population and demographic trends or economic projections by the BC government give no credence to the BCREA ‘whisper number’ of 13%.
Second, I think this is a market psychology ploy dreamed up by the executive at the BCREA to attempt to forecast a ‘bottom’ to the market so as to set people up to start believing it if it is advertised often enough. Remember what the Nazi’s said about propaganda, ” If you tell a lie often enough, people will start to accept it as truth”.
This an exercise in the ‘big lie theory” because it isn’t based on any truth. It’s just a number flippantly grabbed out of the air down at the BCREA war room offices. I think the conversation went something like this
” Look, we obviously look like total liars to the general population by continuing to put out press releases saying the opposite of the truth.”
So, lets start putting out press releases that contain some massaged facts and we’ll obfuscate the truth by pushing a bogus number that looks official, that will be painful to some people but will be a number that people can grab on to and say”
” OK 10%, that’s not to bad, I can take a 10% hit”.
“This way we can try to work in the idea that it’s not going to be so bad, that there will a small but managable price drop. Maybe if we can hold the story up long enough we can induce some people to buy when the drop hits that 10% from here.”
” But, ” someone askes ” Aren’t we already down 10%? I read that in all the papers already today”
“Never mind” says the head turd, ” people forget easily what happened yesterday”
“It’s our job to create a new reality based on what we want to happen, not on what has happened or what actually may happen”
The BCREA is desperatly trying to manage the real estate downturn by managing the truth.
Well thats what I got out of the BCREA press release. Buyers Beware
February 3rd, 2009 at 2:33 pm
OPPORTUNITY for the sharp knives in the drawer.
smart people know that housing markets move like molasses and we’re going into a worsening economic climate. Developers know this, that’s why they’re undercutting speculators and trying to unload inventory before things get worse.
The sharp knives aren’t in the drawer anymore. They’ve just started falling. Go ahead and try to catch one if you want.
February 3rd, 2009 at 2:23 pm
Mohican has more on the HPI:
http://housing-analysis.blogsp.....using.html
February 3rd, 2009 at 2:12 pm
crashcart – I think post 2 was meant to be sarcastic.
February 3rd, 2009 at 2:09 pm
Lots of bored realtors on this blog nowadays. Sucks to be you! Fortunately, your Association had some foresight when they changed the rules to allow you all to moonlight and keep your license. My industry won’t allow that, but we’re professionals.
Front page of Van Sun business section prices coming down another 13% this year… conservative. Must’ve been painful for them to publish that. Try 30% this year.
Good luck specuvestors and realtors you’ll need it.
February 3rd, 2009 at 2:06 pm
looks like the desperation squad in posts 1,2,3,5,6. I think it used to be called ‘pissing into the wind”.
February 3rd, 2009 at 2:03 pm
Jan stats out:
http://www.rebgv.org/sites/def.....ease_0.pdf
HPI went up slightly from December. On RealEstateTalks VHB points out this could be due to the low sales volume this month making estimation difficult.
Expensive areas (Van West, North Van, West Van) got crushed YOY. West Van detached down 21%.
February 3rd, 2009 at 1:30 pm
Is it just me or does paulB’s numbers say that we have price increases in Jan? expected?
February 3rd, 2009 at 1:06 pm
30% down in the of 2009.Party time just starts.
February 3rd, 2009 at 1:05 pm
40%, yup. We found out last week that salaries are frozen for 2009. The exceptions are those being promoted or those that are underpaid compared to industry averages. The decision was made in late 2008; guess it beats being laid off… however, with 10 years on the job, my severance would be pretty nice and then with extended EI and no mortgage to pay, I could pretty much take a package and then enjoy the time off skiing hiking etc as I could easily make it last over a year by which point things should be looking brighter!
I work in hi-tech, well financed public company; we could stop selling product tomorrow and keep going for 4-5 years before cash runs out.
February 3rd, 2009 at 12:51 pm
They gave away those cool SUV type BMWs too.
This is just the start. If Polygon is gonna give away $ 70,000 worth of BMW just think what kind of a bargain a body can get if they try.
ABSOLUTELY no question the time to buy is here.
February 3rd, 2009 at 12:37 pm
Developers are running scared and offering FANTASTIC incentives. Polygon was giving away a BMW with a townhome purchase and sales were FRANTIC!!!! with 13 units sold in a single weekend.
Doom and gloom of the masses is OPPORTUNITY for the sharp knives in the drawer.
February 3rd, 2009 at 12:25 pm
This is the worst time to buy real estate, with the economy in the state that it is. Specuvestors, you know deep down in your heart, that Vancouver real estate prices will drop harder and faster this year because of the economic crisis – if you’re a smart specuvestor, you will cut price and sell. Once again, is there any doubt that real estate prices in Vancouver will drop 50% or more from its peak in May of 2008?
February 3rd, 2009 at 12:17 pm
Time to BUY!!!!
February 3rd, 2009 at 12:16 pm
condomania..you should BUY!!
February 3rd, 2009 at 12:13 pm
AWESOME time to buy Vancouver condos.
Look at those deep discounts off market prices. Its an amazing opportunity to get quality construction at an affordable price.
Mortgage rates are at historic lows and that brings affordability up!!!