Friday Free-for-all!
It’s Friday! Here are a few stories I’ve noticed lately:
-Helmut Pastrick predicts BC will lose 42,000 jobs in 2009
-BC loses 35,000 jobs in January
-Canada facing worst economic crisis since 1970s
-Credit crunch tests the mettle of P3s
-Ontario RE/Max offices investigated
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So what are you seeing out there? Post your news, links and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!
note: any conversation on Vancouver, real estate or economics is allowed, please keep it civilized. When posting articles please only quote pertinent points and link to the original instead of pasting the entire article here. Pasting a link into your comment will automatically create a clickable hot-link. Linking to more than one external link within a single comment may cause your submission to get held up in the spam filter.
February 10th, 2009 at 1:14 pm
Notwithstanding the economic downturn, there are just too many restaurants to support current business levels.
Since many mid-high end restaurants have thin margins on food, even a small a drop in beverage sales (where all the profits are) over a year can really put them in trouble.
You can bet that many people who do dine out now, are opting out of the bottle of Bordeaux, in favour of a glass or even a beer.
February 10th, 2009 at 11:43 am
"the strip joints in Montreal also appears to be hurting, "
Ok, recessions and housing busts are one thing, but if anything happens to Chez Paree or club supersexe then this is clearly a DEPRESSION.
February 10th, 2009 at 11:20 am
'We do realism', Bank chief defends recovery projections.
February 10th, 2009 at 11:19 am
Restaurant business sizzling in recession,Business continues to be good, report Island restaurants (CBC) http://www.cbc.ca/canada/prince-edward-island/sto…
February 10th, 2009 at 10:03 am
I can see restaurants in Yaletown having a contraction this year, but likely not right now. The tech sector is not doing very well, so I can't see Yaletown thriving like it used to be in the next year or two. A similar thing is happening in Kanata of Ottawa, the high tech village. Office vacancy is 20% there, and a lot of newly renovated or opened restaurants likely won't survive. Yaletown will likely get hit harder, though, with all the realtors getting a 60% pay cut year over year. The RE downtown likely hit Yaletown business harder than the tech downturn. My feeling is, Yaletown is overhyped. As the RE meltdown drags on, we'll see who the long term end-user of all the condos are, once all the bubble jobs are lost.
On a separate note, the strip joints in Montreal also appears to be hurting, with the lost of New Yorkers going to Montreal for weekend trips.
February 10th, 2009 at 9:37 am
Economy will rebound in 2010, with the central bank still projecting real GDP growth of 2.8 per cent.'We do realism at the Bank of Canada. We don't do spin.'—Mark Carney.
February 10th, 2009 at 9:27 am
Wow the BS is strong in that one. As if the restaurant owners in Yaletown get together and talk, and invite a gold-bug post-apocalyptic blogger like that. I was at Glowbal last Friday, it was packed. Here are some facts:
1) Yaletown rent is incredibly high. Many restaurants and stores have come and gone in good and bad years.
2) Jan-Feb is notoriously the worst months of the year for any restaurant owner. Almost all lose money. If these "owners" didn't expect that, they have no business running a restaurant.
3) Further to 2), restaurants are extremely risky ventures, approx 50% end in failure, regardless of the economy.
February 10th, 2009 at 9:22 am
From Garths blog
Poster TheComingDepression
Just left a party with some restaurant owners in Yaletown. ALL the restaurants in Yaletown are on the verge of CLOSING. Most are just about bankrupt they said. From the front lines..in VANCOUVER.
================
Anyone in Yaletown seeing this ?
I would consider this quite a canary in the mine especially for the Yaletown area .
February 10th, 2009 at 9:13 am
No drug clean-up for Olympics
http://www2.canada.com/theprovince/news/story.htm…
QUOTE:
Vancouver police Chief Jim Chu admitted yesterday that Downtown Eastside squalor and drug addiction will be essentially the same one year from now when tens of thousands of journalists and visitors descend on the city for the Winter Olympics.
In a wide-ranging exclusive interview with The Province, Chu said he knows stories about the Downtown Eastside will be broadcast back to countries around the world.
"I hope it's a little better than it is, but it still will be a big problem, absolutely," said Chu.
The best we can hope for is that we can tell the world we have a plan, and that we're trying to do things differently."
==========
Not surprised in a pragamtic sense.
However, what's the big picture here ?
Growth in gangs.
Gang violence is ramping up. Daytime shootings.
What will tourists think ?
BC is becoming a laughing stock, the only "growth" is in crime.
Then we have this $1 Billion Olympic security budget for some boogey -man terrorist threat ,when we can't even fix the messes we currently have and thus can't even protect our very own citizens who have to pay for this $ 1 Billion security to protect a few thousand foreigh athletes and 2 weeks of Olympic tourists?
If that same $1 Billion was instead used to clean up our current frikkin rampant domestic crime mess that would be a much better investment would it not?
All seems typical of this "ignore the problem and it will go away …. out of sight out of mind " BS from our politicians and Justice Industry.
February 10th, 2009 at 3:44 am
Western Canada hit hardest by decline
B.C. and Alberta see swifter, sharper downturn than other provinces as housing slumps and bankruptcies soar
"The global recession is cutting through British Columbia and Alberta with such alarming force and speed that the two provinces are bracing for an economic downturn as powerful as the rise that until recently defined a new West.
Fresh economic data on housing starts and personal bankruptcies show B.C. and Alberta – once holdouts to the U.S. and Central Canadian slumps – leading the country in decline."
Where were you in '82?
I'm looking forward to the Albertans trying to blame Trudeau for this one. Gordo will of course blame everything on the bubble economy south of the border, as though his own province wasn't the most bubbly thing since the Lawrence Welk Show.
February 9th, 2009 at 11:39 pm
oh yeaah nutstars! sounds good boobs and buffets at las vagueass! arit and draken missing in action at area 51
February 9th, 2009 at 11:20 pm
DAVID BAINES is the true law in Vancouver(Extremely Righteous Dude)
Give this man full honours for uncovering the TRUTH behind all the SCAMMERS and doing as much as he can and getting it out there to all of you!
I admire this man, still alive, wonder what his take is on pre-sales/speculators,current RE situation?
Anybody heard his take on current economic woes!
February 9th, 2009 at 11:00 pm
Vancouverboom2:
I have watched your poo – flinging antic for years. At first I thought you were another garden variety idiot but frankly you seem to have come completely off the rails. You used to at least TRY to come up with some kind of argument but lately you aren't even doing that.
So I gotta ask: Why the hell do you bother?
February 9th, 2009 at 10:58 pm
Skye:
I do indeed give cooking lessons. Check http://www.thelaughingchef.info for my contact information, and feel free to drop me a line. We can talk about your needs there. Heck you'll be by second VCI client, I should probably be giving Pope a cut of the action
February 9th, 2009 at 10:32 pm
Lily pad:
I bid $1.00, is that high enough?
February 9th, 2009 at 10:30 pm
Lily pad:
Hire a family of actors to schill when/if anyone walks in the door. Give them a script about wanting to put in an offer above the selling price right away. Have the husband and wife scream at each other,
" No, I buy treeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!"
February 9th, 2009 at 10:18 pm
89 sales today at the price of 1 gold brick=1 square feet.Vancouver Real Estate is absolutley showing no respect to it's opponents cities and sitting out dumbs,Stats are available in High Definition Multimedia Interface.
February 9th, 2009 at 10:02 pm
She has it priced at 85% of assessed value. Is that low enough?
February 9th, 2009 at 10:00 pm
Sorry, meant muchas gracias. Duh.
February 9th, 2009 at 9:59 pm
Turn off the HGTV and tune into reality. There is only one thing that sells a house today – price.
February 9th, 2009 at 9:55 pm
I am helping a friend sell her PG home. Please give me some staging tips including dining room, flower beds (red tulip beds?), kitchen, music, smells, etc. Muchos gracias!!! Open house is on Saturday.
February 9th, 2009 at 9:46 pm
"When they abandoned real journalism years ago, their days were numbered. No self respecting fish would be caught dead wrapped in the Sun!"
I give David Baines full marks. Some of the other reporters I agree are not worth the ink. Remember when Baines ripped apart problem child Realtor Robert Zoost? I was always hoping Baines would start drilling into the Millenium stuff but these days there's more than enough to keep him busy.
February 9th, 2009 at 8:12 pm
"On that note, the Vancouver Sun must also be hurting right now."
I hope so! The Sun is the worst paper of all time! When they abandoned real journalism years ago, their days were numbered. No self respecting fish would be caught dead wrapped in the Sun!
February 9th, 2009 at 7:52 pm
If the bill does not pass the end times will be around the corner. It's your choice. Embrace change by giving all your change to me for the rest of your life or be prepared for the end of the world.
February 9th, 2009 at 7:16 pm
172 circlingthebowl
Yeah…I know….
I was just testing the VCI waters if anyone caught the irony/inconsistency .
BTW: You win a 40 % off coupon for the next ONNI sale.
Enjoy !
February 9th, 2009 at 7:13 pm
Whistler debt Mini version of COV?
http://www.whistlerquestion.com/article/20090115/…
QUOTE:
With rising costs for services such as transit and an expected reduction in hotel tax revenue because of a decline in visitation, Whistler is facing a budget shortfall of more than $1.3 million in 2009, Lisa Landry, the municipality’s general manager of economic viability, told a crowd of about 30 people at the library on Monday (Jan. 12).
==============================================
QUOTE:
In response to questions from the crowd, she said the long-term debt is at a 20-year term at a fixed interest rate of about 5.5 per cent. With previous debt associated with Whistler Housing Authority rental buildings, Whistler’s long-term debt total is $44 million.
In addition, Whistler has secured a short-term loan of up to $100 million to fund construction of the athletes village and there seemed to be some disagreement among councillors, community members and staff about whether that amount should be included in the municipality’s total debt calculation.
Landry said so far $60 million has been accessed, and Councillor Ted Milner said that takes Whistler’s total outstanding debt today to $104 million ($44 million long-term, plus the $60 million short-term). “I’m not sure a lot of people know that,” he said.
HUH ? YOU ARE NOT SURE IF THEY K-N-O-W THAT ?
====================================
QUOTE:
Chief Administrator Bill Barratt said the athletes’ village loan should be separated from Whistler’s total debt because it’s a construction loan and all the units are expected to be sold by spring.
"…..all the units are expectd to be sold by spring?
W-H-E-R-E have I heard THAT before ?
Jeeves sell the Whistler penthouse suite ASAP !
February 9th, 2009 at 7:06 pm
NO -LYMPICS:
It's well known that Bobby has zero intrest in womens boobs. Unless there are go go boys in Vegas, you won't see the suddenly limp wristed and lispy Mr. Runniepants anywhere around. I thought this flaming personality issue was well known.
February 9th, 2009 at 6:53 pm
Sea-to-Sky Highway
http://www.ritchiewiki.com/wiki/index.php/Sea-to-…
QUOTE:
With the announcement of the upcoming winter Olympics taking place in Vancouver in 2010, and Whistler being a keystone to those events, the B.C. provincial government authorized the upgrading of the Sea-to-Sky.
==========
My understanding is that many public sector projects have been planned years ago…the plans sit on shelves till the Gov't of the day dusts them off with proclamation of the project being a done deal and yet trying to BS the public that THEY thought of it and no one else did.
How they want to BS the public on the 5 W's for self- serving reasons is simply what we can come to expect.
My own view is the Sea to Sky wouldn't have been upgraded without the Olympics… Campbell is full of shite to claim otherwise.
February 9th, 2009 at 6:37 pm
165 depressionwatch
I agree totally:
That's the sad thing…
One's ethics are compromised from public service to a bloody whore(though some would say whores are a public service).
Stuff some prophylactics in one's ears just to cover all bases.
February 9th, 2009 at 6:34 pm
166 john Says:
QUOTE:
That’s my advice to all of you at this time. I’m off to Vegas to look at condos and boobs.
======
Boobs?
Bob Rennie will be there?
Must be cheap drinks and buffet.
February 9th, 2009 at 6:20 pm
Gordon Campbell…you stinking LIAR?
He was just on CTV being interviewed by Bill Goon and claimed that his govt decided to improve the Sea to Sky highway 10 months before they won the bid. This is patently false!
If anyone here remembers the IOC said they would not consider Vancouver unless the highway was improved and that's the reason the project was launched at the time it was.
February 9th, 2009 at 5:36 pm
More than 1,000 banks may fail during the next three to five years as the recession intensifies and loan losses climb, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets estimated on Monday.
A MAJOR RECESSION LASTING THREE TO FIVE YEARS !!!!!!!
OK to buy now says Global TV …. HUH ? RANDENE NIEL IS NOW AN INVESTMENT ANALYST ….. HUH?
1000 more banks will fail over the next 3 to 5 years says RBC Captial Markets
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/More-1000-b…
February 9th, 2009 at 4:22 pm
America has always and will always prevail. If you bet against America you will lose everytime. That's my advice to all of you at this time. I'm off to Vegas to look at condos and boobs.
February 9th, 2009 at 3:56 pm
NO -LYMPICS:
" I was only following orders" said the death camp guard.
Sorry, if these people feel it neccesary to lie cheat and steal to keep thier jobs it is thier moral and ethical destruction that should be challenged. Theres no excuse for turning a blind eye and leading some poor fool down the path to ruin just because " they told me to".
February 9th, 2009 at 3:35 pm
Skye:
The term tsumani is oftn used in these economic meltdown discussions
When an earthquake is registered in say the middle of the ocean…most agencies almost assume an tsunami wil be a collateral effect even thousands of miles away…until proven otherwise.
Why people feel immune is probably based on conditioning along the same lines that got them in this mess…a flawed belief system and then denial when the aftershocks begin to kick in.
Assume the worst , and if it doesn't happen great…its a bonus.
If the worst happens you are prepared.
It usually end up something in the middle of the two aforementioned scenarios.
February 9th, 2009 at 1:37 pm
One thing I've noticed in general conversation is that while on bear blogs of course we're all girding for the worst, in general conversation most Vancouverites are completely clueless about the huge sh!tstorm coming down the pipe. They say "What job loss? I have my job and so do my friends". They don't read economic forecasts and don't realize that these layoffs are going to trickle up and hit them hard. Most can only make their mortgage payments if both are working and have borrowed from their parents. Somehow they think the global recession isn't going to effect us here, that we're not part of the globe. They probably won't until they lose THEIR job, like that old joke about correction, recession, depression. Anyway it makes me really nervous that so few people have changed their habits at all to prepare for what's coming this year and next. I try and nudge them towards educating themselves because I don't want them to get hurt, but any more than that and I'm some crazy doom & gloom guy. Maybe its because I grew up in a logging town and when the mill went on strike, we knew how to get by with a garden and cutting coupons. Damn bourgeoisie
February 9th, 2009 at 1:31 pm
NO -LYMPICS: I could swear I saw a news story about lots of Aussies and Kiwis leaving Whistler for home this year because there's not enough work. Of course I can't find it now because any time you search for Whistler all the marketing crap comes up.
Re: the Hwy 99 construction, apparently they shut down over winter to prevent the traffic snarls from last year:
The schedule of construction-related delays and closures on Highway 99 is in wintertime mode, with no closures and only minimal delays anticipated until Feb. 28. During off-peak periods, construction delays are coordinated to follow the 15-15-20 rule.
You can probably find more info reading between the lines at
http://www.whistlerquestion.com/section/whistler0…
Apparently the Whistler city council is facing a $3 million budget shortfall due to lower hotel occupancy.
February 9th, 2009 at 1:27 pm
I know its tempting to keep nailing the RE shills…whether it be TV, Newspapers etc.
IMHO, there are the same historical talking points they whip out continually in knee -jerk fashion . RE is the uber pimpable commodity, its like it must never have a negative angle to it. Maybe that's one major reason why we are in this mess.
However, that "spin list" is getting shorter and shorter as some historical points are now deemed to be outright deceit if repeated.
In addition, I read that CanWest is trying to shed assets..its "E!" station is on the block..it it can't sell it they may fold it.
Media jobs, especially Journalism are collapsing, thousands are being laid off. The ones that exist realize more and more they "best toe the company line",…they can be far more objective when times are good. The irony is bad news sells more…but not if the bad news is their bread and butter.
If the media message is not objective, but instead increasingly tainted as "shill", many of us already tuned it out…and they simply will get tuned out by more and more that are on the epiphany learning curve when the shill is diametrically opposed to the bitter reality.
Ignore them and simply be glad we are not in THEIR shoes.
The shilling will simply implode, sooner or later.
February 9th, 2009 at 1:01 pm
realestatesplatter:
BTW, for those who don't use the venacular for overleveraged mortgages, it's an 'alligator', Because it costs you more than it brings in.
February 9th, 2009 at 12:54 pm
Kudo's to VCI posters. The unadjusted unemployment numbers a VCI poster posted caught my eye and I forwarded the unadjusted 410,000 number to Garth Turner. He includeed this in his blog today. The stats can be found at statscan labour stats ( hyperlink in the comments sec of Garths Blog). Truth is good, public awareness of the truth is really good.
Keep up the good work boys and girls. These stats are unerringly used to massage public perception. People are shocked to learn the truth and I'm sure the governments don't like that.
Another email I recieved this AM is worth posting in it's visual.
"alligators are slipping up the toilet drains of new condo owners and ripping thier balls off, or cunts as the gender may be. It's all blood and guts anyway, and a lot of lawsuits and puking up of regrettable dreams thrown in."
February 9th, 2009 at 12:51 pm
I was looking forward to the "movie", but this is movie that got so powerful that the cinema caught on fire, then the block, then the city, then the country, continents, world.
I thought becoming an eskimo mouse was safe: hide in the arctic.. but the ice is melting.
Beware of water front properties.. I would not be surprised of some "unloading".. Ice is melting faster than anticipated.
I like roller coasters too: anybody has an updated robert shiller chart?
February 9th, 2009 at 12:31 pm
Anyone just catch global noon news? What a brutal pump on real estate. lol, They just know its the bottom of the cycle!!! Randene just begging people to buy as she mentions her recent mortgage refi.
February 9th, 2009 at 12:28 pm
pointystickintheeye:
You can't blame the Vancouver Sun for towing the party line being spewed by the REBGV, CREA etc… since the Vancouver real estate industry has been the single largest source of advertising revenue in that publication for many years. Not so long ago the Saturday edition of the Vancouver Sun would have two "Homes" sections… with numerous full page and even multi-page ads from the local developers.
On that note, the Vancouver Sun must also be hurting right now.
February 9th, 2009 at 12:11 pm
"Consumer Bankruptcy Filings Surge"
http://www.bnn.ca/news/6952.html
"The number of Canadian consumers filing for bankruptcy in December soared 50.6 percent, although filings fell from a month earlier, the Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy Canada said Monday. Almost 8,000 people filed for bankruptcy in December."
February 9th, 2009 at 12:00 pm
Desperate times come to deperate measures. They will do everything to keep some air in the bubble. That you can bank on this may be the only fact that we can bank on. The hot air the RE business is trying to keep enough air in the bubble to try and blow out the condo glut and then more to come… You can't blame em really. It is kind of pathetic.
February 9th, 2009 at 10:13 am
Another day another bizarre unsubstantiated nostradamus moment from the whacko's at CREA. Real Estate market 'all better by 2010', how surreal. My immediate reaction is,
"Why , all of a sudden. is there a press release from either CREA, REBGV or the construction industry aplogists EVERYDAY now? Is this what we'd call a 'full court press'? Are they trying out the 'Big lie theory', wherein by repeating the lie often enough they may single handedly change the perception of a gullible and faith starved herd?
http://www.vancouversun.com/Homes/home+sales+expe…
These prognostications that are now coming fast and furious from the publicists of the real estate marketing aplogists are always unsubstantiate guesswork, factually antipodal hope-filled flights of fancy and often downright threats used against a staggerd and directionless public.
The media is shameless in all this. The Vancouver Sun has become a rag of epic proportion. It is doesn't have a focus on integrity. Wasn't the reporters basic principle " wheres the truth?'; this rag is nothing more than a small town advertiser without editorial oversight, shameful for such a world class city flagship.
Meanwhile , in the real world, layoffs today are too numerous to post individually. Personal and small buisness bankruptcies skyrocket ( and these are all the little shleps in the burbs running a basement SB). Benjamin Tal of CIBC said something interesting this morning. he said that the banks are experianceing a new phenomena in personal bankruptcy filings, these he called " Sudden bankruptcies", where persons are going straight past the delinquency process and going straight to zero, no stopping for tea.
For those apologists at the CREA etc I would ask you to put up some factual data instead of spewing nonsense and at least allow the public the benefit of making clear decisions based on facts and not on your own greedy self intrest.
February 9th, 2009 at 8:54 am
crabman: Wow, yaletown for $450/sq.ft
February 9th, 2009 at 8:31 am
Beach Rat comment 135
Cost of Capital … anyone who owns a 1.4mm house is already paying that. DOES NOT include depreciation, working capital and taxes. Add those up and we are looking at 20-25k a month for the pleasure of living in Van.
Shake your head people.