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Friday Free-for-all!

It’s Friday!  Here are a few recent news stories to kick off the open topic weekend discussion:

-House prices to go down for a decade?
-Experts say first-timers needed in housing market
-Real estate boom over.. Ya think?
-BC leads way in rising unemployment
-Commercial Property outlook bleak
-BC bleeding ‘good paying jobs’
-Making bad times good
-Big deficits in US budget
-US House prices drop at record rate

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news, links and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

93 Responses to “Friday Free-for-all!”

Pages: [2] 1 » Show All

  1. 93
  2. read on Says:

    Ok, I have no opinion on the rightness or lack of of what the RCMP did. But let’s take a look at your post, shall we?

    First up, lets call the police “pigs” – that’s really helping. I personally have sibling in the police (not the RCMP), and if you called them pigs while I was around I’d kick you in the balls.

    Next – The Polish government have no legal juristiction in Canada. They are simply media grandstanding.

    It is “obvious” they would have been convicted of murder? Well, nice to know someone out there has a crystal ball.

    “These 4 pigs should be extradited to Poland like any other criminal would be.” What a load of crap. Since when does someone committing an alleged crime _in Canada_ get extradited to another country?

    “Wouldn’t Canada expect the same courtesy and doesn’t it demand it.” No, it does not, and it never has. As an example think of Canadian tourists murdered in Mexico. If anyone is charged, they are tried in Mexico, under Mexican law. This is a basic principle of legal jurisdiction.

    Oh, and by calling them “nazis” you’ve already lost any debate that you might have wished to answer.

    Finally, this is a RE blog, no? Less OT hate.

    Current score: 5
    Reply to this comment
  3. 92
  4. Anonymous Says:

    factcracker you are absolutely correct. I and many people I know agree with you 100%. Shameful and disgusting.

    Current score: -1
    Reply to this comment
  5. 91
  6. factcracker Says:

    I just watched the 6 PM news coverage on the Robert Djiekanski ‘murder by cop’ Braidwood inquiry. Is it just me or should these pigs have been put on trial before the prosecutor decided not to charge them prior to all evidence being examined by ALL paties concerned?

    All 4 RCMP killers have been shown to be baldfaced liars, incompetant and ill trained thugs in uniform who thought nothing of murdering an innocent man.

    Today the public was so aghast at the extent of the lies being told that cat calls were heaved at the actual killer of Robert Djikanski who continued to read the script the RCMP lawyeres had given to the pricks that had testified before him, only now, after cross examination, all the RCMP statements have proved to be false and it is obvious that the 4 cops that killed Robert would have been found guilty of murder had the government not stepped in to shield them from justice under the law. Its outrageous and shameful.This makes us look like we’re a third world country where justice is waived for certain people and citizens can be killed and brutalized without any recourse to justice.

    Now it is being reported that the Polish government is going to charge the 4 pigs with murder and the RCMP is trying to block all the evidence from being transferred to the Polish authorities. SHAME !!!!! I hope the Polish government insists on a trial at the Hague and puts these nazi’s on trial for murder as they should have been in this country. The RCMP is citing obselete treaty documents unrelated to anything and attempting to sway international justice the way they have subverted canadian justice. These 4 pigs should be extradited to Poland like any other criminal would be. Wouldn’t Canada expect the same courtesy and doesn’t it demand it. Apparently not when it comes to hiding killers wearing uniform.

    I hope everyone around the world can somehow be made aware that they are not safe when confronting these vicious untrained thugs in uniform when coming to Canada for the Olympics. I hope they all think twice before coming here.

    Current score: 4
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  7. 90
  8. patriotz Says:

    circlingthebowl:
    Whatever the reason a few houses went into the market at whatever price, the fact is all prices are down.

    Well of course all prices are down. I said that San Diego is 40% off peak. My point is that the Case-Shiller index, which is not sensitive to market mix, is the most accurate measure of how much prices have actually gone down, not the statewide median which has been biased by a huge increase in sales at the low end.

    Current score: 2
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  9. 89
  10. depressionwatch Says:

    I keep hearing the local pundits assure us that everything will be back on track when the US housing market is back up again. I keep reading material that indicates that it’s the entire economy and not only real estate thats fallen off a cliff. There are so many reasons why this recession will accelerate into 2009 and 10. People are generally so optimistic that it will be short term. Thats never how recessions end. They always end badly. Not to put to fine a point on this but you can expect the pain to get many times worse before it gets better, thats how recessions end, when the blood is streaming down Main St.

    http://www.time.com/time/busin.....29,00.html

    Current score: 0
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  11. 88
  12. circlingthebowl Says:

    NO -LYMPICS:

    #81 no-lympics, There is no brinksmanship on cynicism on this forum for the most part. We are a very wary bunch. I am merely pointing out/to the obvious.

    Current score: 0
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  13. 87
  14. NO -LYMPICS Says:

    Condo buying seminar

    Also noted

    Strata Bylaws : Are they registered ?

    Rick noted an example whereby a couple with a young child bought into a strata.

    As they entered the strata with their child one day they met another strata owner.
    The other party asked if they were visiting.
    The couple said no, they lived there.

    The other party had this surprised look on their face , and then asked whose child that was?
    The couple replied it was their child.

    Shortly after, they had a letter under their door stating the strata had a ” no children policy” via its strata bylaws .
    The couple were not aware of that, so went to their Lawyer.

    The Lawyer did some research and found the Strata’s Bylaws were NOT registered at the Land Title’s Office .
    Apparently there is a default provision that if this is the case , a more basic/ standard Strata Bylaws then applies ( ie which would not exclude children)

    Conclusion:

    The Couple and their child were allowed to stay in the strata they bought.

    Lesson: See that the Bylaws are registered, or use it in your favour.

    Current score: 1
    Reply to this comment
  15. 86
  16. sam Says:

    those 3 musketeers released more hot air than can fill Richard Bransons hot air baloons. What a waste of time reading their interview. Beating round the bush say that eventually house prices will stabalize. I could have told you that. The fact is these overpaid fat cats are trying to do all they can trying to stop the vancouver house price reaching the affordibilty level they should be. I can understand the high price paid for ral estates in London England, New York, Tokyo where people get million dollar bonuses as standard, but vancouver !!. You’ll be lucky to get paid 100,000.

    Current score: 1
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  17. 85
  18. circlingthebowl Says:

    patriotz:

    #82 patrioz , so you are agreeing with the article with the fact that house prices have and are continuing to go down. It’s hard to argue the myriad reasons why prices are down from the previous peak, there are in fact many, but the underlying bottomline is that prices are down irregardless of how they got there. Whatever the reason a few houses went into the market at whatever price, the fact is all prices are down. Whether they were foreclosed product or from a forced divorce sale or death in the family they are all down in price. It’s not just foreclosed SFH prices that are down.

    Current score: 0
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  19. 84
  20. NO -LYMPICS Says:

    Re: Remediated Buildings

    Rick provided all sorts of stats and anecdotes.
    One was that only 20 % of condos that have been built and will be leakers have been fixed .
    That implies that 80 % of the condo product out there will need repairs .

    At the very start he stated some buildings are on there 3rd restoration.

    New remediation standards require a Professional Engineer specialized in Building Envelopes.

    GIVEN: All buildings leak.
    The question is to what degree do they leak ?

    OLD condos can be classified as having no report to identify a buildings degree of leaking

    NEW buildings have to be given time to have the flaws exposed.
    ( BTW: Warranties were discussed , which was another eye opener)

    REMEDIATED buildings are, in essence, old buildings that have exposed their warts and have had a Specialist make recommendations that exceed the building code so as to make the building better than many new buildings .

    I discussed with him a situation with some family members that are having their strata unit undergoing a remediation.
    The entire complex is having the exterior stucco stripped, OSB removed and re-sheathed in plywood.
    I said that in my estimation that rot is very sporadic, most of the sheathing gleams like new wood…so isn’t this a bit of expensive overkill?
    He said that if one is purchasing a condo…and doing due diligence, one doesn’t want to hear 1/2 a wall was done or 3 walls were left etc.
    The key is potential purchaser wants assurances..not the current owners trying to save money with a false sense of economy.

    IMHO: Look for this to be a future selling point ( if one can wrap ones head around it ).

    Current score: 0
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  21. 83
  22. Anonymous Says:

    NO -LYMPICS:
    Looking forward to that should be interesting! Be quiet deathspiral! :-)

    Strataman

    Current score: 1
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  23. 82
  24. patriotz Says:

    Note that the reason why the median in California has dropped so much in just a year is the huge increase in foreclosures or other distress sales in the disaster areas of the Inland Empire and Central Valley.

    The metro with the greatest decline in the Case-Shiller index is San Diego, which is about 40% off the peak, which was in late 2005.

    Current score: 1
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  25. 81
  26. NO -LYMPICS Says:

    deathspiral:

    I went in possibly more cyncial than you…but I attended.
    If you weren’t there, then your comments are off base.

    I’ve been to other RE seminars which were mostly BS.

    I’ve already stated I myself wouldn’t be a condo buyer…and after listening to his seminar I am even more convinced from his seminar condos ain’t for me, but that is based on how much information and due diligence should go into any condo purchase , which is what he made clear.

    That may sound counterproductive…but there are parties that still want condos, so Rick’s seminar would benefit.

    This was the first one he held on Lower Mainland.My guess is 50 people attended , from all ages and backgrounds.

    Current score: 2
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  27. 80
  28. NO -LYMPICS Says:

    deathspiral:

    I went in possibly more cyncial than you…but I attended.
    If you weren’t there, then your comments are off base.

    I’ve been to other RE seminars which were mostly BS.

    I’ve already stated I myself wouldn’t be a condo buyer…and after listening to his seminar I am even more convinced from his seminar condos ain’t for me, but that is based on how much information and due diligence should go into any condo purchase , which is what he made clear.

    That may sound counterproductive…but there are parties that still want condos, so Rick’s seminar would benefit.

    This was the first one he held on Lower Mainland.My guess is 50 people attended , from all ages and backgrounds.

    Current score: 1
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  29. 79
  30. circlingthebowl Says:

    “California’s housing market has weathered a sobering downturn in recent years, and figures released Thursday show how far things have fallen. In January, the state’s median home price for an existing single-family home topped out at $254,350. That was off 9.5 percent from the previous month but down a whopping 40.5 percent from a year earlier, according to the California Association of Realtors.”

    http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=5295

    Current score: 2
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  31. 78
  32. deathspiral Says:

    deathspiral:

    PS:

    “Rick’s background was worked witht the CMHC, then as a builder..Home Inspector now a Realtor.”

    1)He works for the banking slime and peddles BS to people paying a huge premium for mortgages they haven’t got a standard downpayment for. You need no training no education no qualification of any sort and generally only get the numbers from CMHC that are entirely inaccurate and at best so far out of date to be totally useless.

    2) An inspector is an unlicensed , unregulated industry that anyone with zero qualificatiion can get into with an ad in any paper, no degree or certificate required.

    3) He worked as a realtard, no education, no qualification, no training, 2 week exam period, max. Always full of shit desperate commission only saleman.

    Great qualifications to be classed as any kind of expert alright.NOT !!!!!!! In fact the guy sounds like the worst combination of huckster imaginable.

    Looks like you got taken in by a realslime saleman . maybe they were pumping Rennie Farts into the auditorium air system.

    Current score: 8
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  33. 77
  34. Informer10 Says:

    Canada’s central bank looks set to deliver a hefty half-point interest rate cut on Tuesday that should boost the country’s dollar and bonds, but it may also signal its aggressive 15-month rate-cutting campaign is near an end.
    http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reu.....da_markets

    Current score: 3
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  35. 76
  36. deathspiral Says:

    NO -LYMPICS:

    #74 no-lympics, I have seen many remediated condo projects that have leaked time and time again, I drive past several every day as a reminder that are on the third ‘remdiation’.

    The designs are at fault and it seems that no amount of resurfacing will ever solve the problem, the buildings are not designed for this climate and will have to be torn down eventually.

    There was a post on this board not too long ago by someone who had just finished off paying for the first wrap of 45 thousand dollars from the special assesment and the second’remediaition’ was assesed at $180 thousand and this was impossible for her to finance because the unit wasn’t worth that much in equity to her.

    Another example in the Sun paper 2 weeks ago was of a guy who had his unit sold from under him because ho couldn’t pay the special assesment and his fellow owners refused to pay ( one was a realtard) so the judge sold the entire project to a developer for land value and the guy lost everything.

    Any realtard that is recommending you buy a leaker is just so full of shit on so many levels. I’m surprised you didn’t pick up on the bullshit the guy was slinging. You have to be insane to ever buy into a project that is or ever has leaked, they will continue to do so and it never stops until you end up broke or in court having your property taken away from you by a judge. Were you drunk or high when you were at this ‘salesinar’.

    Current score: 7
    Reply to this comment
  37. 75
  38. NO -LYMPICS Says:

    I attended that Rick Couvelier Condo Buying seminar yesterday at Langara:

    Conclusion: It was AWESOME.
    Approx. 6 hours long…but time flew by.

    Rick’s background was worked witht the CMHC, then as a builder..Home Inspector now a Realtor.

    Re Strata…man there is a lot to know. It is a minefield on so many fronts, but sure was empowering once the seminar was finished.

    I’ll submit posts re: some of the things he talked about.

    One interesting tid bit was he submitted a “what was the best choice of 3 following condos?”

    OLD Condo ?
    or
    Remediated Condo ?
    or
    NEW Condo ?

    He stated Remediated Condo for a number of good reasons.

    More later

    Current score: 4
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  39. 74
  40. NO -LYMPICS Says:

    Buffett says economy in shambles

    http://www.theprovince.com/Bus.....story.html

    QUOTE:

    NEW YORK — Berkshire Hathaway Inc, Warren Buffett’s insurance and investment company, barely broke even in the fourth quarter because of losses on derivatives contracts tied to the stock market.

    Profit fell 96 percent, the fifth straight quarterly decline, and Berkshire’s net worth tumbled $10.9 billion in the year’s final three months. Net worth per share fell 9.6 percent in 2008, only the second decline since Buffett began running Berkshire in 1965. It fell 6.2 percent in 2001.

    In his eagerly anticipated annual letter to Berkshire shareholders, Buffett also offered a gloomy economic outlook, saying “the economy will be in shambles throughout 2009 — and for that matter, probably well beyond.”

    ======
    Berkshire generates about half its results from insurance, including auto insurer Geico Corp, but operates more than 70 businesses that offer such things as carpeting, ice cream, paint, real estate services and underwear.

    Current score: 2
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  41. 73
  42. Vancouverite Says:

    Is everyone enjoying the RAIN?
    Oh Ya it rains a lot in this Vancouver ‘World Class City’

    Current score: 2
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  43. 72
  44. patriotz Says:

    Singapore’s luxury property bubble bursts

    “Just over half – 55% – of the 2,200 luxury homes constructed in Singapore between 2006 and 2008 remain unsold, according to a recent report compiled by CB Richard Ellis.

    The housing slowdown in the city-state was further illustrated in an additional report issued by the Swiss bank UBS which revealed that homes in two high-profile residential schemes recently sold for 20% under their launch prices.

    Furthermore, various reports suggest that a house in the upscale waterfront development of Sentosa Cove, is on the verge of being repossessed, which this time last year, was thought to be unthinkable, and further reinforces the fact that the financial slump is even effecting the country’s wealthiest individuals.”

    Well there’s another blow to the “running out of land” and “rich Asian” chestnuts.

    Current score: 8
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  45. 71
  46. read on Says:

    I’m a potential FTB (a little older than most – mid 30s, too many years in school) who is definitely still in the woodwork. I’ll burrow my way out in a year or two when things make sense to buy again.

    Current score: 11
    Reply to this comment
  47. 70
  48. patriotz Says:

    Dan in Calgary:
    Haven’t we used up first-time buyers for a few years?

    At current prices, certainly. But a lot of FTB’s came out of the woodwork in the mid-80′s when prices made sense again, and I think we’ll see the same in a couple of years. Not nearly as many as were buying during the bubble, mind you, but there will be buyers. It’s just a matter of price.

    Current score: 3
    Reply to this comment
  49. 69
  50. NO -LYMPICS Says:

    1 NO-LYMPICS Says:

    February 26th, 2009 at 7:52 pm
    I’m #1 I tink

    Current score: -73

    A Record !!!

    Current score: -16
    Reply to this comment
  51. 68
  52. observer Says:

    It would be interesting to see what these shills are actually doing in practice. Are they buying like they are preaching? Or are they taking the opportunity to off load their units while they still can, as the stimulus keeps things afloat momentarily (i.e. market is being propped up momentarily for some people to off load to greater fools).

    Current score: 8
    Reply to this comment
  53. 67
  54. da mouse Says:

    #63 & #64

    Yeay, squeak !

    Current score: 0
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  55. 66
  56. Dan in Calgary Says:

    We need to find a way to get the first-time buyers back in and engaged.
    and
    The way is called lower prices, Phil.

    Haven’t we used up first-time buyers for a few years? Didn’t the fear of being priced out forever induce many to buy who, by virtue of where they were in life’s journey, wouldn’t normally have bought yet? Didn’t we borrow demand from the future?

    Current score: 20
    Reply to this comment
  57. 65
  58. exx Says:

    Bad neighbour Jonathan Bacon draws fire in Port Moody

    People are definitely concerned,” says realtor Joy Bagga, of Keller Williams Results Realty, who is listing a two-bedroom condo on the eighth floor. “I know that there are some sales that are because of that.”

    Bagga herself gets nervous when she has to show the unit in Jonathan’s building, she says.

    Wow, she’s STILL trying to sell that unit. That’s the unit I looked at in Spring 08 when it was listed at $350K. I told her I wouldn’t pay more than $250K, so she dropped it to $299K and called me back. It’ll be interesting to see how much this affects the sales in that development. I wonder, does she tell those attending the open house about this information? “Here’s the kitchen, master bedroom, a picture of the high profile gangster you should avoid, ensuite bathroom, lovely view…”

    Current score: 7
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  59. 64
  60. deathspiral Says:

    Inventory:

    #63 Inventory, good post. it looks like we’re in record territory now, heading for record lows that is. It looks like 15 years of activity is getting wiped off the books in a matter of months. Is it any wonder why the tards are in free flow bullshit psychosis. Theres a lot of people with an axe to grind who are not going to get a paycheck for a long long time, and IMHO they don’t deserve one either.

    Forget listening to the barking seals like Bob Realfullofshit, Pastrick ( the credit union was pushing for 50 year mortgages weren’t they) and the CREA and REBGV etc etc, these guys are all selling desperatley because they know they’re at the end of the line. The idea that any of the specuvestors deserve some sort of preferential treatment through government incentives to keep prices up is absurd.

    It used to be that buying a place for investment had to make financial sense and give you a positive return. The postings today clearly show that until real estate falls at least another 30% you won’t break even and to make a bond rate or better return prices MUST come down 35 to 45% from current levels.

    I am not trying to bash because its fun, I look at the numbers as they are and not how I would like them to be and can only conclude that there is no value in real estate and there is absolutley no reason to buy at this time.

    I understand that eveerything I read in the newspapers and hear on the radio is complete BS and don’t believe anything that is being said by the paid representatives of the involved organizations. This turkey is going to crash into the dirt big time IMHO.

    Current score: 20
    Reply to this comment
  61. 63
  62. Inventory Says:

    REBGV SFH+TH+APT Unit sales Feb 1995 to 2009
    Year SOLD LISTED ACTIVE GROSS YOY %Change
    1995 1550 5466 17377 536977647
    1996 2208 5742 17025 627824642 42.45%
    1997 2535 5086 17506 728796001 14.81%
    1998 1585 4842 17988 459610245 -37.48%
    1999 1742 3682 15663 469361560 9.91%
    2000 1697 3836 14149 509009160 -2.58%
    2001 1846 3732 14091 528006464 8.78%
    2002 3095 4194 10349 928596777 67.66%
    2003 2872 3793 9692 902944343 -7.21%
    2004 3173 4144 7667 1123670576 10.48%
    2005 3150 4287 10599 1220393068 -0.72%
    2006 3020 4504 8310 1479813342 -4.82%
    2007 2905 4338 10414 1544552876 -3.81%
    2008 2733 5467 11420 1704072177 -5.92%
    2009 1494 4052 15578 810705546 -45.33%

    Current score: 15
    Reply to this comment
  63. 62
  64. Inventory Says:

    Finan numbers for Feb.

    FEB 2009 ReBGV SFH+TH+APT (FEB 1-28)
    Gross Sales 810,705,546 (-52%)
    Units Listed 4,052 (-25%)
    Units Sold 1494 (-45%)
    Sale Success Ratio 43%
    Sales to Listings 36%
    Avg Price/Unit 542,640 (-12%)
    Active Listings 15,578 (+36%)

    FEB 2008 ReBGV SFH+TH+APT
    Gross Sales 1,704,072,177
    Units Listed 5,467
    Units Sold 2,733
    Sale Success Ratio 67%
    Sales to Listings 49%
    Avg Price/Unit 623,517
    Active Listings 11,420

    Current score: 13
    Reply to this comment
  65. 61
  66. Strataman Says:

    http://paul-northvancouverhomes.blogspot.com/

    Current score: 4
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  67. 60
  68. Strataman Says:

    Any one want the numbers? Paul has gotten rid of some trash, maybe give him and the new fellow some feed back! :-) Check the latest post by Paul. (addendum under the original).

    Current score: 1
    Reply to this comment
  69. 59
  70. MickeyFinn Says:

    observer:
    Observer (post #56)

    Here’s why even those numbers are not supportable.

    Rent of $1,507 per month has to be reduced by the monthly strata fee… say $300/month (maybe too high) and then there are property taxes and maintenance… say $1,500/year (maybe too conservative).

    So $1,507 minus $300 = $1,207 times twelve months = $14,484

    and $14,484 minus $1,500 = $12,984

    In other words, the net annual rent from that “average” condo unit is only $12,984

    A very generous way of valuing that net annual rent is to divide by the five year mortgage rate (say 5.25%) but that is very generous… a more appropriate cap rate is like 8% and historically, for one-off residential condo units a real estate investor would expect a cap rate of 10% or even more.

    To calculate the value therefore you divide the net rent by the required return:

    At 5.25% (the 5 yr. mtge rate) = $247,000

    At 8% = $162,300

    and,

    At 10% = $130,000

    So the $334,000 – which you correctly note is likely an understatement of current average pricing – is in fact way over-valued.

    If it dropped to $234,000 then it is arguably appropriately valued. Or in other words, if prices fall a further 30% from where they are today it will be approaching appropriate value.

    Markets don’t typically re-correct to an equilibrium but generally “overshoot.” That’s where the Vancouver market is headed… full-on crash. It’ll take patience to sit back and watch it unfold. Lot’s of people will try to catch the falling knife… many of those will lose some fingers (metaphorically speaking of course).

    Current score: 15
    Reply to this comment
  71. 58
  72. realpaul Says:

    observer:

    #57 observer, you said

    “Unfortunately, these times are unprecedented (once in a lifetime or two lifetime type of event) so what held true before may no longer be the case.”

    And thats a point many people have missed, even the ‘professionals’ interviewed in the Sun article. History does not repeat itself in exactly the same way in every cycle. Mark Twain said

    ” History does not repeat itself but it sometimes rhymes”.

    There is no evidence that details the recovery event, timing or profile of the tail end of this recession. The numbers certainly seem to be getting worse. These Polyanna’s who ‘forecast’ the bottom and the recovery are doing so based on nothing but an ability to blow smoke up each others asses. All this “past casting” is nothing short of mental masturbation and most people with an ounce of common sense know that.

    Current score: 5
    Reply to this comment
  73. 57
  74. observer Says:

    http://www.vancouversun.com/Bu.....story.html

    Move up buyers are probably not the most vulnerable, especially if they have built up equity from a long time ago. The worst thing that could happen is the downturn gets nasty and they lose what they had (as they say easy come easy go).

    First time buyers are more vulnerable as they stand to lose much more than than their down payment in a severe correction.

    The article paints a rosy picture, and indeed it has been for property owners over the past decade. Unfortunately, these times are unprecedented (once in a lifetime or two lifetime type of event) so what held true before may no longer be the case.

    Current score: 2
    Reply to this comment
  75. 56
  76. observer Says:

    http://www.vancouversun.com/Bu.....story.html

    Anyone read this article?

    It says currently average two bedroom condo in metro van is 334,602 and this could rent out for 1,507 per month. The numbers don’t feel right in that the rent estimate of 1,507 per month seems just a bit high for the type of 2 bd apartments in the price range of 334,602, but perhaps this is really the case.

    If property taxes and condo fees are put in, total payments for owning are still higher than for renting.

    Of course, this hasn’t stopped people from buying in the past because they expected price appreciation to make up for the difference (and then some) in the purely financial calculation of rent versus buy.

    Now that housing prices are declining, this reason no longer remains however (though judging from recent articles in the media, the hype still does).

    Another more subtle effect is decreasing cpi inflation which effectively means even though your mortgage interest is less now, in real terms it isn’t as little as it seems. Same for house prices. If we didn’t have inflation or had some deflation, the figure of 334,602 in real terms is worth more than you think. This effect unfortunately isn’t one which most people think of unless there is a clear trend over a long period of time. For this you need a historical perspective.

    I like the clip below which was posted here recently by no-lympics (don’t know how accurate the scary chart is though!)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ca_aOvZPh-g

    Current score: 2
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  77. 55
  78. SiteSucksSuperAss Says:

    Little kiddies and Pope the dope have completely ruined this waste of time site.

    Its not even funny any more.

    Bye losers.

    Current score: -31
    Reply to this comment
  79. 54
  80. jesse Says:

    From oneangryslav’s link. Tsur goes toe-to-toe with Michael Audain from Polygon later on in the interview. Audain says there is not much oversupply compared to the 1990s. Tsur says that’s changing rapidly [likely referring to the scary housing starts/completions data presented on mohican's blog]. Audain’s excuse for why those numbers are bunk: people have second homes!

    Tsur retorts, which ones would a distressed buyer sell first? Obviously he spotted the gaping hole in Audain’s argument. Audain responds he doesn’t care because the second home they don’t sell won’t be in Vancouver. WTF. This is the most bizarrely circular argument I’ve heard in a while.

    I don’t always agree with Tsur but in this interview he’s calling it as it is, in a subtle way mind you, and obviously sees Audain as a fool. He didn’t even try with Patsy Hui. I assume he only has so much patience.

    Current score: 5
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  81. 53
  82. jesse Says:

    oneangryslav: Here is what Tsur said:

    When you’re looking on the investment side, from what I hear and what I’ve been told, the banks are much stricter on providing funds for people who are not going to be owner occupiers. So there’s a piece that was an important piece of driving the market in the aggregate, not for individual projects and I doubt particularly for your projects they were as much of a piece versus some of the high rise towers, and that’s a market where the financing is really hard to get. The investment side is completely dried up.

    Tsur was hardly bullish in that interview and I doubt they’d ask him back if he was overtly bearish. When Tsur is saying this sort of thing you know there’s a lot of pain coming. I had some hope then he says this:

    A couple of issues: No. 1, we don’t actually really understand what goes on with investment real estate. When you look at research and studies, it is because home owner/occupiers are such a big piece….

    Since we don’t actually 100 per cent know which unit is which. But if you take the Lower Mainland and [calculate] 2.5 million people, 2.6 people per household, that’s 800,000 households, 60 per cent homeownership [so] 480,000 households.

    The investment piece is still very small in the overall number. It’s highly concentrated in certain product types, downtown condos, certain suburban high rise buildings. Overall, it’s not a big story.

    Did he just basically say that 40% of existing housing stock owned by investors is “very small”? Dr. Somerville is about to find out what prices being “set at the margins” means for owner-occupiers. Wow.

    Current score: 7
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  83. 52
  84. NO -LYMPICS Says:

    Municipal Stimulus

    Free building permits and tax holiday offered by Langford, B.C.

    http://www.joconl.com/rss/id32497

    A municipality near Victoria B.C. is taking a novel approach to kick starting construction within its boundaries.

    Mayor Stew Young and Langford city council is offering it’s own $2.5-million stimulus package that will waive building permit fees for residential construction and provide a 10-year tax holiday for new federal and provincial office space, as well as new rental accommodations.

    ======

    They still don’t get it.
    Stimulate W-H-A-T ?

    More debt?,
    More of a glut?
    The problem is due to past OVERstimulation and ignoring the fundamentals

    This forces other Local Gov’ts to match this?…then there is no edge for the City that started it and a bigger /faster race to the bottom ?

    Current score: 5
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  86. NO -LYMPICS Says:

    From Garth’s blog

    Milton, Ontario, on the 401 west of Mammon, has 65,000 people living in approximately 14,000 houses. Right now more than 1,500 of those houses are for sale, or one listing per 40 residents. Compare that with the GTA where there are 21,000 active listings and 5.3 million, for a listing-to-pop ratio of one to 26,000. Did I mention they were doomed?

    In fact last month, of the 1,500 homes for sale just 60 sold, and even fewer the month before. This means a homeowner listing today (and new offerings are flooding in by the vatfull) could expect a two-year wait to find a buyer.

    Current score: 4
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