January’s Housing Starts Decline
From the CMHC website today, January Housing Starts Decline. While the seasonally adjusted urban rate declined 15.6%, it is BC at 29.1% and The Prairies at 30.3% that are driving the national stats down:
The seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of housing starts declined to 153,500 units in January from 172,200 units in December of 2008, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).
“To a certain extent, the decline in housing starts coincides with recent developments in the existing home market. Reduced sales and increased listings in the existing home market have led to reduced spillover demand in the new home market,” said Bob Dugan, Chief Economist.
The seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts decreased 15.6 per cent to 126,700 units in January. Urban multiple starts decreased 12.2 per cent to 76,700 units, while urban single starts fell 20.2 per cent to 50,000 units in January.
January’s seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts moderated in all of Canada’s five regions. Urban starts declined 8.6 per cent in Atlantic Canada, 1.4 per cent in Quebec, 14.6 per cent in Ontario, 30.3 per cent in the Prairies, and 29.1 per cent in British Columbia.
-YTWNboomerang
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February 10th, 2009 at 12:25 pm
I find these “Housing Starts” numbers confusing:
BC is only down 29.1 %
What are the reference points?
Was a start not tabulated when the foundation was started ?
I don’t see much evidence of new starts…mostly projects far past that point and on their way to completion soon.
In Richmond…a couple of very small multi – family developments are now proceeding, but that’s about it.
In Vancouver, I see the odd SFH being built…but nothing to any major degree.
February 10th, 2009 at 12:49 pm
On a side note, the Conservatives have tabled legislation proposing a “belt tightening” for the salaries of all federal workers (this may include the RCMP I’m not sure).
On first blush this seems like a fine idea given the economic crisis. But some of these employees agreed to an arbitration process years ago. Now, whatever an arbitration panel decides will be ignored. Instead, salaries will be set by legislation.
Seems undemocratic to me..
Am I the only one who sees that employees of all types will probably avoid arbitration in the future?
Instead, Canada will now see a lot more worker’s on strike trying to get employers to agree to wages and benefits. After all, why agree to arbitration if it can be ignored?
We are going to become like the French where it seems there is a strike every other week..
February 10th, 2009 at 12:58 pm
The Conservatives have to tighten belts around the federal workers so they can afford the Home Depot bailout they announced in the budget.
February 10th, 2009 at 1:08 pm
Belt tightening?
So what’s wrong with that?
Are we going to do this across the board? Or pick and choose?
I’d mentioned this before as the economy was unravelling.
The private sector would get hit, and no one in it was immune.
That leaves the public sector.
Q: Who ultimatley pays/funds the public sector?
A: The private sector !
If the public sector maintains delusions of entitlement…
eventually they will kill their own golden goose and they will be getting pink slips as well.
We’re A-L-L in this together folks !
February 10th, 2009 at 1:22 pm
I went to last years release:
http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/.....8-0815.cfm
Whose tagline was “Housing Starts Rebound in January”
Corporate Information > Newsroom > News Releases > 2008 > Housing Starts Rebound in January
——————————————————————————–
Housing Starts Rebound in January
OTTAWA, February 8, 2008 — The seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of housing starts was 222,700 units in January, up from 184,700 units in December, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).
“Historically low mortgage rates, solid employment and income growth as well as a high level of consumer confidence continue to underpin the high level of housing starts”, said Bob Dugan, Chief Economist at CMHC’s Market Analysis Centre. “Housing starts in January returned to a level more consistent with our expectation that housing starts will total 211,700 units in 2008, remaining above the 200,000 mark for the seventh consecutive year.”
Comparing the actual numbers in the releases for BC Urban:
Jan04: 2,365
Jan05: 1,891
Jan06: 2,238
Jan07: 2,538
Jan08: 2,342
Jan09: 925
Comparing the SAAR numbers in the releases for BC Urban:
Jan04: 29,700
Jan05: 26,000
Jan06: 31,900
Jan07: 35,300
Jan08: 33,600
Jan09: 14,100
Looking at the SAAR factor for each year:
Jan04: 12.6
Jan05: 13.7
Jan06: 14.3
Jan07: 13.9
Jan08: 14.3
Jan09: 15.2
What do I see? The SAAR factor increases each year except 2007 when we actually had really high starts; is CMHC trying to fudge the numbers to look better as seasonality factors really shouldn’t change that much year especially not an increasing trend – oh wait, global warming, ha ha ha
February 10th, 2009 at 2:11 pm
Less housing starts = less inventory = higher prices.
February 10th, 2009 at 2:21 pm
That’s right, Supraboy – higher nominal prices… in about 5 years or so. That is what you meant, right?
February 10th, 2009 at 2:40 pm
Another day of ludicrous statements by the CREA. In thier statement today , they announce differant numbers than yesterday. Are they making these reports up anew by the minute? Laughably todays statement suggests that prices in BC will continue to deterirate at the same time as improving in 2009. Keeeerist on the cross, what a joke. Theye are just throwing this shit out hoping something will stick. What desperation!!!!
http://www.theprovince.com/Hom.....story.html
Meanwhile BOC Governor Marc Carney has dipped deep into the ’suasion’ file and come out with an equally bizarre statement by reacting to reporters questioning his constantly shifting ( caan I say shifty) statements. He states that ” the BOC deals with reality) . How absurd. Mr. Carney states that by 2009 the Canadian economic GDP will push at 3.8%!!!! What bullshit, 3.8% would represent the best GDP performance this country has produced in the past 2 decades. We weren’t doing 3.8% at the height of the boom.
Doe’s anyone think that the million jobs that have been lost this year are suddenly going to reappear and on top of that another million jobs will be additionally created? Talk about denial.
Garth talked about UNI grads applying for jobs at the fertilizer plant. The fact is that none of those 500 apps will be successful. Companies like Mosaic, Agrium and Potash are laying off thousands of workers dur to the downturn in the fert biz. Even the ethanol and by prod co’s are getting shuttered.
Mr. Carney is obviously ‘jawboning’ the markets as BOC governors are prone to do. They do it when they want to talk the dollar down, they do it when they want to talk the economy up, they do it when in fact they plan to nothing but influence the market with suasion tactics. This bullshit used to work in the decades before electronic trading because it gave the government some time to adjust before the markets reacted. But these days , people just call it bullshit.
February 10th, 2009 at 2:45 pm
YTWNBoomerang:
hahahahahahaheehhehheheeehhheeehhheeehahahahah
Housing Starts Rebound in January
OTTAWA, February 8, 2008 — The seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of housing starts was 222,700 units in January, up from 184,700 units in December, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).
“Historically low mortgage rates, solid employment and income growth as well as a high level of consumer confidence continue to underpin the high level of housing starts”, said Bob Dugan, Chief Economist at CMHC’s Market Analysis Centre. “Housing starts in January returned to a level more consistent with our expectation that housing starts will total 211,700 units in 2008, remaining above the 200,000 mark for the seventh consecutive year.”
I think this story was filed from a smokey room in Jamaica.
February 10th, 2009 at 2:59 pm
Re: Honest reporting
In the previous post someone mentioned the Vancouver Suns David Baines. I had the same name in mind when assessing the media’s integrity. I came across this article
” The Most Hated Man in Business”
http://www.bcbusinessonline.ca/node/342
QUOTE:
The next year brought the longest strike in Pacific Press’s history (11 months) – the event ended PacPress’s unchallenged dominance of West Coast news. After crossing the picket line for four or five months, Baines quit once more, signing on as a commercial account manager at his father’s old haunt, the Bank of Montreal.
There followed some wild and useful years. Working at “an obscure branch at Carrall and Hastings,” Baines “spent the first couple of years shoveling money out the door and the last couple trying to collect it.” Interest rates ran to 20 per cent, the Vancouver housing market collapsed and, suddenly, it became critical to study what Baines calls the four C’s of lending: credit, character, capacity and collateral.
He made some mistakes – mistakes that would later colour his vision and harden his heart against the dream merchants who populated the Vancouver Stock Exchange. In one memorable case, he was working with the young owner of a troubled insurance company. Baines doesn’t say he pushed any banking boundaries but “worked hard” to keep the client aloft. He adds, almost apologetically: “I liked the guy.”
Then, one darkening evening as Baines was leaving the office in his rusted-out Rabbit, he stopped at a red light and noticed the “troubled” borrower sitting next to him in a brand new, bright orange Mercedes convertible. “It was completely incompatible with the austerity that was appropriate,” Baines says, adding, “I knew at that moment that I was going to pull his loan.”
The experience left him with “a deep distrust of hedonism” –another bias that was sure to colour his later reporting.
=============
It’s a very interesting article, he has quite a fascinating background. He most certainly did not have things come easy and learned a lot through trial and error.
Ah..the VSE I wonder where all the “rogues” (politically correct word for scumbags) ended up?
In RE maybe ?
February 10th, 2009 at 3:44 pm
“Less housing starts = less inventory = higher prices.”
haha you fail.
February 10th, 2009 at 3:50 pm
Watch the markets reload. Rich Chinese are flocking here left right and center. The minimum amount to qualify for a canadian citizenship for a Chinese is $400k of investment. There are more than a billion people in china. Imagine 10% of those people flocking here with 400k each.
February 10th, 2009 at 3:52 pm
@crashbug
The subhead in that Province article is ludicrously misleading (even for one of our rags):
B.C. to take another big home-sales hit
Average prices to drop 0.6 per cent to $404,000
In the article it says
2009 -10.6%
2010 -0.6%
possible explanations:
1. They left out a parenthetical (after dropping more than 10% this year)
2. They made a typo and left off the 1 from 10.6 (A Bob Rennie bounce, in football parlance)
3. That browntown goof hacked their website
February 10th, 2009 at 3:57 pm
Forget the numbers, look at the verbs:
“In 2010, B.C.’s overall house sales will rebound by a nation-leading 28.4 per cent. Nationally, the association foresees sales growth of 9.9 per cent next year.”
Apparently CREA still uses their crystal ball for national stats but has stated emphatically that BC “WILL” rebound 28.4%.
I gotta get their take on the equity markets as I need them to tell me which stocks to buy.
February 10th, 2009 at 4:05 pm
Supraboy:
Sorry to pop your bubble.
That was the worst thing the Gov’t ever did.
Allowing the investor immigrant fund to classify Real Estate as an eligible investment for immigrants is exactly the reason RE will tank here.
The investor fund should have excluded RE as an investment. That would have forced REAL jobs to be created… not cyclical ones such as in construction. This would have avoided the bizarre economy of low paying McJobs yet $1 Million McMansions for homes.
If we had supported the middle class with a far more appropriate direction of these immigrant investments, people could have had real jobs , afforded real homes less specuvesting and cushioned the shock…ie a much more stable RE market.
I could see this mess coming years ago…and I am sure that I am not the only one either.
February 10th, 2009 at 4:23 pm
“Allowing the investor immigrant fund to classify Real Estate as an eligible investment for immigrants is exactly the reason RE will tank here”
Sorry to inform you but when there’s more money coming in, it will trickle to more chinese restaurants and stay within the chinese community for a long time. If you don’t have a chinese business, you’re shieet out of luck. The rich asians go for dim sum everyday and spend most of their money in richmond. That means only the lucky few, eg, Costco, Futureshop and Best Buy in Richmond will survive. It will result in a few bucks going to the white men.
February 10th, 2009 at 4:46 pm
Supraboy:
Richmond? bwahahahahaha
The Rich Asians will get slaughtered…
One poster gave a great link to a hot bed of specuvesting…the Hemlock Road area of Richmond.
The number of listings are unreal for such a relatively small area.
Q: Why aren’t the Rich Asian snapping them up?
A: Because “my huzzba and me buy tooooo frikkin m-a-n-y…” = no more Rich Asians.
The Ex- Rich Asians will be giving them away to the round eyes at Dim Sum…..bwaaaahahahahaha
That’s the way the fortune cookie crumles !
February 10th, 2009 at 4:52 pm
BC Teachers Take Pension Hit
Cuts could affect up to 100,000 retired and working, K through college.
http://thetyee.ca/News/2009/02/10/TeacherPensions/
QUOTE:
The ivory tower is no safe haven from the economic downturn, as B.C. teachers and retirees are learning this winter.
Tens of thousands of educators are being told their pensions will no longer grow with the cost of living, and their payouts for medical care will be axed.
For faculty in the B.C. colleges and “teaching universities,” the bad news came last month. The College Pension Plan announced on its website that in September it will stop paying for retirees’ extended health and dental benefits. And as of January 2011, the plan will no longer increase pensions to keep pace with inflation.
============
Another ” economic ” canary in the mine ?
February 10th, 2009 at 5:01 pm
What may be getting lost in all the huge unemployment numbers are the ACTUAL TOTAL NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED. We are getting burned out by seeing a thousand jobs here and 20,000 there. People are becoming numb to the truth.
There are now 12 MILLION unemployed in the US.
http://www.moneymorning.com/20.....nt-rate-2/
Although the Canadian Government doesn’t release the numbers you have a trail of breadcrumbs to lead you out of the forest of obfuscation and ignorance promoted by the stooge media.
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/subje.....pa-eng.htm
Denial is rampant. The truth is much worse than your leaders are willing to publish.
February 10th, 2009 at 5:06 pm
Supraboy:
Sooper Dooper Denier, I was at FutureShop and BestBuy Richmond last weekend ( looking for a wii-fit sys) and I could have fired a lucky bronze cannon loaded with kung fu swords down any of the aisles and not hit anyone. Where are all these ‘rich ‘ people you speak of.
February 10th, 2009 at 5:08 pm
Fixing the Crazy Cost of Housing
http://thetyee.ca/News/2009/02/10/CrazyHousing/
QUOTE:
The best solution: Boost family income by 85 per cent
There are two ways to narrow B.C.’s housing gap: Either raise incomes, or lower the cost of housing.
Social policy experts claim raising incomes is the better option. They note that B.C. households bring home lower median incomes than Canadians as a whole. They warn that as the income-to-housing-cost gap expands, hundreds of thousands of British Columbians fall within a few missed paycheques of becoming homeless.
Economists also believe that raising incomes is the better option. They note that renters who spend 42 per cent of their income on housing are a drag on the economy because they have that much less to spend on cars, clothes, furniture and other goods that stimulate the economy.
“We argue that the ultimate solution to the affordable housing problem is to raise market incomes and develop a more effective and equitable income transfer regime to help lower-income households,” wrote TD Economics chief economist Don Drummond in a 2003 paper on affordable housing.
How much would family incomes have to rise in order for an ordinary family to purchase an ordinary home?
About 85 per cent.
Median family income would have to almost double in order for an ordinary family to afford an ordinary home in Metro Vancouver
==========================
Uh Huh.
I like the bubble burst theory = higher probability reality.
BTW: The TYEE will be running a series on this ” housing affordability ” topic.
February 10th, 2009 at 5:18 pm
UK property sales fall below thirty years ago. Prices continue to fall.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/fin.....years.html
February 10th, 2009 at 5:22 pm
NO -LYMPICS:
So let me understand this. If income has to rise 85% to afford a house, then isn’t it just as likely that prices could fall 85%? After all, which has more elasticity, the ability of an average employer to increase wages 85% or average prices coming down 85%?
February 10th, 2009 at 5:27 pm
Supraboy – I think maybe you are not a real person.
If all the rich asians are buying, then ummm, why are they at the same time trying to sell their houses in predominantly asian communities??
Check out the massive number of listings for Westwood Plateau(asian Mcmansions) or Richmond.
My very unscientific study of asking asians I work with what’s up with that, is that they tell me a lot of their community is returning to their homeland. More upside there for them. Heck, I may go with them !
February 10th, 2009 at 5:31 pm
I also find it unbelievable that the bulls like Supraboy have the audacity to believe Vancouver will be decoupling from the global economy.
That would be quite the feat…and also quite impossible no matter what economic theory you subscribe to….
February 10th, 2009 at 5:32 pm
“The best solution: Boost family income by 85 per cent”
Sounds like the quote’s author doesn’t have any savings. I have savings and would not want this to happen. Of course, if income increased that amount, it would signify significant inflation and the accompanying interest rate hike. Which would increase my savings while putting negative pressure on housing prices due to higher mortgage rates. Buyers can only afford according the mortgage they qualify for.
February 10th, 2009 at 6:09 pm
circlingthebowl:
So let me understand this. If income has to rise 85% to afford a house, then isn’t it just as likely that prices could fall 85%?
No, RE prices would only need to fall 46% to match an 85% income gain.
I’d put my money on price drops, not income gains. In fact, 46% price drop seems like a conservative estimate!
February 10th, 2009 at 6:14 pm
Supraboy says:
Richmond will survive. It will result in a few bucks going to the white men.
hmmmm…. a little racist are we? Would you like me to call you a yellow man?
February 10th, 2009 at 6:26 pm
Some interesting observations from my recent 3-BR rental (of course, it can’t be a purchase—not for a VCI disciple!) search in Richmond:
In one townhome complex near #4 and Alderbridge two of the townhome units lowered their rentals from $1700 and $1650 to match another unit asking $1560 (Compare that to 1-BR rates in Vancouver). I even got a call back from the landlords enquiring whether rent was a factor which was a pleasant surprise! What was interesting here was that in these two particular units, young folks had bought only a year ago and in both cases they were transferred out East.
In a large farm house, one independent portion of the home containing 4 large BRs Bathrooms with 3300 sq ft. space, had the rent lowered from its original ask of $1850 to $1600. (Initially I was offered the reduced rent, privately, but about a week after I declined mainly due to the location on #6 Road, I observed an ad for the place with the reduced rent).
I finally settled for a 1700 sq ft. duplex some blocks south of City Hall for $1650 with a slight rent reduction and a bonus 1/2 month rent waiver. The landlord, an affable gentleman, mentioned that his previous tenant had lost his job but that wasn’t all: the tenant in the other duplex (a salesman) and his son (in construction), had also lost their jobs, but with the new bridge coming, he seemed to think that the son would probably be okay.
Definitely a buyers and a renters market! The stories down south are frightening, but the fallout disccussed in VCI over the last many months is certainly hitting home.
February 10th, 2009 at 6:52 pm
“I was at FutureShop”
I was there the other night. Had to leave because the sales dudes were driving me nuts.
Every time I turned a corner, a red shirt greeted me. Then one sort of latched on to me when I stood in front of a TV for too long. I’m familiar with how FS works but this was overkill.
February 10th, 2009 at 7:03 pm
Sold2Soon: What were your main sources for rental listings. The tsunami of rental listings in craigslist are littered with delusional, ‘accidental’ landlords. My wife and I are starting to look for rentals for our family of 4.
We have a big down payment locked and loaded but are waiting for sane pricing. My folks sold last May (with Paul B’s help) to a family of greater fools who are now holding on to 2 houses (was not subject to the sale of their home).
February 10th, 2009 at 7:29 pm
anon: I didn’t see that many rental listings in the Vancouver Sun, so I searched exclusively on craigslist and the vancouver rental sites that some ads would link to. I had likely through this site, already gotten the impression that craigslist rental listing were overpriced and, in fact, as you put it there were mostly “accidental” landlords listing their townhomes.
My requirement was for 2.5 or 3 baths and so I didn’t visit any condos. In the end I felt that the duplex I selected was fairly priced (freshly painted, ample space, with good carpets and newer appliances—the owner even agreed to put in a new stove). While I suppose a lease protects both ways, I wasn’t asked to sign one, only write out 6 post-dated cheques as my landlord was not new at this and judged I wasn’t some transient. He was exceptionally patient in giving me time to check out the place (I went there three times!) and himself pointed out things he was fixing up for the place.
February 10th, 2009 at 7:54 pm
supraboy is a white racist pretending to be chinese
NOLYMIPICs is a supraboy wanna be
February 10th, 2009 at 8:19 pm
Why many of you here care what an idiot like supraboy says? He may not even be a Chinese but a racist white just like #33 said. I know lots of Asian, mainly Chinese and Korean who bought Mcmansions in Vancouver West and Westwood Plateau with a huge mortgage. The the biggest mortgage I saw for a VW McMansion is $2.5 million completed in last May. As new immigrants they took advantage of banks’ new immigrant program and borrowing money with declared income. Some people have big income back to China or Korea to support the mortgage but I do know lots of them don’t. They only have 35 or 40% plus some extra cash enough to pay their mortgage for couple of year. They moved here and no longer have any business back home. They are the ones will be forced to sell very soon.
February 10th, 2009 at 8:27 pm
Can someone explain how any of the experts predicting anything but a deep recession right now are coming up with their figures?
It’s all arbitrary isn’t it? It’s ridiculous. What’s worse is they are given such a loud voice.
February 10th, 2009 at 8:54 pm
NO -LYMPICS:
The best solution: Boost family income by 85 per cent
There are two ways to narrow B.C.’s housing gap: Either raise incomes, or lower the cost of housing.
Boost incomes! Wow, why didn’t I think of that! Everyone can just ask their boss for a 85% raise!
That has to be a nominee for the Most Ridiculous Economic Idea Award.
Who is going to “boost” incomes? God? Incomes are determined by the labour market. The labour market has resulted in real incomes falling since 1982. That’s not going to change. In a serious recession of all times.
There is only one way for the housing affordability question to be resolved, and that’s for prices to come down, big time, just like everywhere else with inflated prices.
February 10th, 2009 at 8:55 pm
It does seem funny that the BOC is predicting a rebound in 2010 given that the job losses are just starting now. If they had said 2011, that might have been more plausible (though not necessarily more likely).
It seems the private industry economists are not in agreement with the BOC and neither is the IMF. And just today, Carney qualified that this rebound is dependent on US stimulus working. Clearly, but if that is the case, and he can’t predict how likely the stimulus is going to work, then one wonders exactly how useful are his predictions in the first place?
February 10th, 2009 at 9:07 pm
“Belt tightening?
So what’s wrong with that?”
What’s wrong is that belt tightening during a recession worsens things. People tend to think of the economy as if it was their personal household – meaning, debt is bad and saving money is good. The economy is different than this, it needs activity to keep alive and when people get scared they stop spending, start saving, and this causes a nasty downward spiral. Consumer A stops spending on business B, business B therefore stops buying supplies from business C, etc.
February 10th, 2009 at 9:08 pm
What’s funny is how no economist who’s for the bailouts can explain how it will create demand for their goods. Because it won’t. It’s life support. It’s waste.
February 10th, 2009 at 9:11 pm
NO -LYMPICS:
Hey don’t get me wrong, I’m all for a little belt tightening. But don’t you think legislating your way around what was supposed to be “binding arbitration” is going to come around to bite the gov’t in the ass?
I hated my time in France. Damn strikes. Every second plane train or museum was shut due to some strike or another. And the farmers with their tractors blocking the roads.. give me arbitration anyday.
February 10th, 2009 at 9:15 pm
NO -LYMPICS: That tyee article is hilarious, as if some entity has a magic knob to juice incomes. No really, Monte, just HOW would you raise incomes exactly? I’d really like to see your plan in more detail.
“While there is no one solution that will close the $200,000 canyon between what British Columbians earn and the homes they seek…”
How about lower prices? It is so simple it boggles the mind. WTF. The tyee can do better than this.
February 10th, 2009 at 9:18 pm
observer: “It does seem funny that the BOC is predicting a rebound in 2010 given that the job losses are just starting now. “
Actually job losses typically lag GDP drops as job gains lag GDP recoveries. I agree though a rebound in early 2010 is optimistic.
February 10th, 2009 at 9:49 pm
34 trollbuster Says:
February 10th, 2009 at 7:54 pm
supraboy is a white racist pretending to be chinese
NOLYMIPICs is a supraboy wanna be
===
Who is NOLYMIPICS ?
February 10th, 2009 at 9:58 pm
41 Hovering Says:
February 10th, 2009 at 9:11 pm
NO -LYMPICS:
Hey don’t get me wrong, I’m all for a little belt tightening. But don’t you think legislating your way around what was supposed to be “binding arbitration” is going to come around to bite the gov’t in the ass?
===========
My point was more aimed at the culture of entitlement some groups seem to have. A lot of labour peace was bought to coincidentally tide over till after the Olympics.
Those contracts were signed under certain economic projections. I highly doubt a black swan event was on their radar.
So, with revenue projections shot…and these groups having higher, if not THE highest job security, do we go into deficit financing to fund these…or do things like the price of many things (ie cost of living)will have come down during the contracts ,…so its the same difference.
Or maintaining these contracts in tough economic times is almost tantamount to double -dipping ? The private sector would honour it, but then lay them off.
February 10th, 2009 at 10:07 pm
Good point. I guess what I was thinking was that once job losses happen it would weigh down on GDP even more because of decreased spending, hence it would delay recovery in GDP. Kind of like a traffic jam, once it forms, no matter how much your push on the pedal, it only moves so fast.
February 10th, 2009 at 10:27 pm
British paper tells ‘ DIVA GENERATION ‘ grads that the jobs party is over. As opposed to ads here in that are still spooning out the kool aid how ‘companies that are hiring’. The jobs available were for prison guards, nice career.
In a report today, students are warned they no longer have the ‘upper hand’ in the job markets.
A growing number of ‘diva’ or ‘ Generation Y’ graduates, who expect everything to fall into their laps, are rapidly ‘coming down to earth’, it concludes.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/new.....ncies.html
Maybe our local grads should consider a nice career in rickshaw pushing during the Olympics?
If the savings rate is zero, and the job prospects are zero then who makes the rent payment? Escort services are probably getting more resumes than ever.
February 10th, 2009 at 10:27 pm
NO -LYMPICS:
Those contracts were signed under certain economic projections. I highly doubt a black swan event was on their radar.
The pre-sale contracts that people are now getting sued for were also signed under “certain economic conditions”. That’s not a reason for the purchasers to ask to get out of them.
The City of Vancouver guaranteed the completion of the Olympic Village under “certain economic conditions”. It can’t walk away from that just because times have changed.
A contract is a contract. The government employees cannot go to the bank and ask them to drop the rate on their mortgage just because times are tough. If the little guys cannot walk away from their obligations, why should the big guys be allowed to?
The government employees are entitled to receive their contracted compensation until the end of the contract, just like anyone else. The government has no right to renege on its obligations just because it thought the good times would last forever.
February 10th, 2009 at 10:36 pm
patriotz:
Gov’t CAN do anything..( except go broke ).
In lean economic times, whats your call if ( and the assumption is to avoid deficit financing )it’s a choice between clawback of wages to allow for crucial funding for say health care….or deficit financing to honour the contracts.
Again keep in mind there would be no layoffs.
February 10th, 2009 at 10:41 pm
47 globbyblatt Says:
February 10th, 2009 at 10:27 pm
British paper tells ‘ DIVA GENERATION ‘ grads that the jobs party is over.
====
Hey:
That’s deja vu all over again.
That’s a sequel to the early 1980’s
TV pilot show…
” That 80’s Show ”
…20% interest rates , job market crashes and burns…PhD’s driving cabs and waiting tables.
February 10th, 2009 at 11:06 pm
39 Cympl Says:
February 10th, 2009 at 9:07 pm
“Belt tightening?
So what’s wrong with that?”
What’s wrong is that belt tightening during a recession worsens things.
=====
There is ” belt tightening ” …….and then there is BELT TIGHTENING.
Too much fiat money was floating around and debt was packaged and flipped many times as a commodity .
Gov’ts are the worst perpetrators in serious need of BELT TIGHTENING. They piss so much $$$ down rat holes at the best of times…, yet when times are bad they re-discover crumbling infrastructure . Have it totally ” bass ackwards ” .
” Belt tightening” for us lesser mortals is aligned more with feeding/starving the credit monster. Non sustainable , provides badly skewed perspective on the economy and due to implode sooner than later . In other words, I don’t feel I have an obligation to society to ” Pay ZERO down and O interest till year 3000 “.
February 10th, 2009 at 11:13 pm
whats your call if ( and the assumption is to avoid deficit financing )it’s a choice between clawback of wages to allow for crucial funding for say health care….or deficit financing to honour the contracts.
Deficit financing. The government has decided to resort to deficit financing to honour its obligations to a two week snow party next year, so why can’t it do the same to meet its obligations to its own employees?
The idea that any level of government should be allowed to break its contracts with its employees, or anyone else, just because it has been incompetent at forecasting future economic trends is just nonsense. We can’t do it as individuals, and there is no excuse for us to do it collectively (through government).
February 10th, 2009 at 11:14 pm
From Garth’s blog:
In Ottawa the governor of the Bank of Canada told the House of Commons finance committee, with a straight face, that the economy will grow next year by an astonishing amount. One of the greatest growth spurts in modern times, in fact.
Meanwhile the Canadian dollar crashed by almost two full cents, and the price of a barrel of oil tumbled 5% in one day, to less than $38 US.
Also in Ottawa, the CRTC announced that the profits of Canadian television networks collapsed by 93% last year, an indication of how companies everywhere are turning off their marketing taps as job-stressed consumers shut their wallets.
===========================================
Media profits collapsed 93 % ?
Ouch !
February 10th, 2009 at 11:14 pm
Vancondobear:
I can’t believe people like you STILL even read or respond to Supraboy. P A G E D O W N.
February 10th, 2009 at 11:25 pm
Patriotz:
But then it comes full circle, does it not ?
The deficit financing is, ultimately, an extra obligation incurred onto the taxpayers, correct ? The taxpayer’s own income stream is reduced, but a greater proportion (ie increased taxes)may be demanded by Gov’t to cover the deficit financing used to honour the contracts.
ALSO:
Keep in mind that the current contract may be honoured, but the next one may have an offer tabled that demands a roll back as a starting point. Hence, the same difference .
February 10th, 2009 at 11:51 pm
No it’s not the same difference. Every contract has its own starting and ending points. If the government wants to roll back salaries or benefits in the next contract, it’s their right to bring this to the table. Just as it’s the right of the unions to ask for a raise. Once a contract is signed, it becomes binding on the parties for the duration.
The fact is that the provincial government is seeking to break its contractual obligations only to its own employees. If it wants to save money, why doesn’t it just rip up its commitment to the Olympics and tell the IOC and its corporate friends to pay for their party themselves? Well that hardly requires asking does it?
You can’t have the rule of law when the big guys can decide whether or not to stick with their contractual commitments, but the little guys are stuck with them.
February 11th, 2009 at 12:33 am
“The fact is that the provincial government is seeking to break its contractual obligations only to its own employees. If it wants to save money, why doesn’t it just rip up its commitment to the Olympics and tell the IOC and its corporate friends to pay for their party themselves? Well that hardly requires asking does it? ”
I agree with what you say but If you ask me what I prefer is that they reevaluate their obligations to both parties. They also have an obligation to the taxpayer. And when the government is not an honest broker to the taxpayer I say the tax payer has the right to say I void this contract. So unless each contract is put through by a referendum I say the will of the people should rule. I say the hell with the cronies, and the hell with the over paid government workers.
February 11th, 2009 at 1:06 am
And when the government is not an honest broker to the taxpayer I say the tax payer has the right to say I void this contract. So unless each contract is put through by a referendum I say the will of the people should rule.
People get the government they elect. The government has the constitutional authority to levy taxes, borrow money, spend money, and enter into contracts. This is the will of the people – it is exactly what government is elected for.
Just because you are unhappy with the way the government has been run is not a justification for it abandoning obligations that it has legally entered into.
People who are unhappy with the government will have the opportunity to do something about it May 12.
February 11th, 2009 at 3:04 am
Wait a second there, Other Ted. I’m one of those government workers and I can tell you I’m not exactly raking it in. They pay the tradesmen only a fraction of what you can make privately. And where I work there is NO overtime. I make a livable wage and that is it. Nobody is getting rich where I work.
February 11th, 2009 at 5:20 am
Union Jack: What fraction is that Union Jack? 99%? Are you including your massive benefits and pension as well? Are you at risk of being laid off? What is your livable wage for what you do? As a tax payer I am in favor of honoring all labor contracts but am also in favor of massive layoffs to the bloated public sector especially when the private sector is being overwhelmed with layoffs. Too many people are sucking off the public tit and I as a taxpayer am sick of paying for it.
February 11th, 2009 at 6:40 am
Anon, government employees don’t give themselves jobs. The government gives them jobs. If you think public sector employment is too high, or that they are paid too much, don’t get mad at the workers.
Get mad at the guy at the top – Gordo. The buck stops there.
February 11th, 2009 at 7:17 am
Patriotz:
The various lobby groups have already started their pre-election campaigns.
The BCTF is already beating the same old tired drum about school closure and class sizes. IMHO, its coded language for featherbedding and keeping membership levels up. The BCTF is so focussed on the lowest common denominator … its social engineering agenda as opposed to a good basic a-political education .
Re Unions:
Having been in 3 unions myself… IMHO the union movement has failed its members. Solidarity is BS. Unions have allowed 2 tier wage scales , which creates 2 classes of workers in the same workplace. The older workers wanted to save their bacon so in return for their ” I’m all right Jack” they threw the new members with less seniority to the wolves with lower wages for the same work.
re Public Sector?
Like Anonymous said…I never had any say in the recent contracts. Provincial and Local Gov’ts wanted labour peace to carry over past the Olympics. As typical, they seemed to ignore the grassroots,and their ability to pay, perhaps setting them up for a major revolt as the economy unwinds. Gov’t and the public sector jump into bed far too often and giving the rest of us the indigent digit .
In essence, its job security and wage increases.
Please tell me where in the private sector that exists?
Gov’t won’t tear up the contracts now, that would defeat their original goal of labour peace.
I predict a clawback after 2010
February 11th, 2009 at 7:34 am
Post # 61 patriotz:
It’s not that simple
Certain Publc Sector unions ARE the Gov’t.
BCTF went through an illegal strike a few years back and the schools were out approx. 2 weeks. Parents and students get caught in the middle, lives disrupted. Gov’t was over a barrel and gave in. Students are and always will be used as hostages. Non miltant /Non left wingers need not apply
for the membership’s executive.
After the dust settles, its all about money. The upfront wages may not always have major gain( though it often exceeds the private sector) , but the generous benefits and pensions are not as obvious to the public.
February 11th, 2009 at 7:46 am
On the news:
Canada recorded its first trade deficit in over 30 years.
aka we imported more than we exported.
Not surprised… but fasten your seatbelts !
February 11th, 2009 at 7:55 am
From Garth’s blog:
QUOTE:
Speaking of Canadian banks,
One of my patients revealed to me that a prominent bank she works at in Richmond has just laid off its entire mortgage division a few days ago.
This is indeed tough times, I better start flipping through my copy of After The Crash which was sitting on my desk for the past few days!
========
Besides realtors…the collateral damage must be mounting. Notaries, Lawyers in general practice ( ie RE ), bankers….conventioanl and non conventional lenders….Moving companies…the list goes on.
February 11th, 2009 at 8:21 am
NO -LYMPICS:
The BCTF is already beating the same old tired drum about school closure and class sizes.
You mean the BCTF is spending its own money to promote its own interests? Well that’s just shocking. Next thing you know groups like the BC Real Estate Association will be doing it.
I do not approve of the unilateral abrogation of labour contracts by either party, and that includes illegal strikes. Illegal actions by the BCTF or anyone else do not in any way justify the abrogation of obligations by any employer.
In the 1980’s Bill Bennett brought in his “restraint” program which involved imposing salary caps on new public sector contracts. His government had every right to do this. He did not try to back out of the government’s obligations on existing contracts.
You either have the rule of law, or the law of the jungle. Take your pick.
February 11th, 2009 at 8:24 am
Happy times return! Obama fixing housing market big mortgage plan soon. Good times again for everyone by spending money. Best thing to happen to anyone.
February 11th, 2009 at 8:35 am
patriotz:
QUOTE:
” You mean the BCTF is spending its own money to promote its own interests? ”
BCTF’s war chest (ie own money) is ultimately sourced from US taxpayers,…ie the wages WE pay the teachers are used to fund the BCTF.
Gov’t and the Public Sector have a symbiotic relationship … a Faustian bargain…they need each other and often to the detriment of the public.
Any sabre rattling is often token…if push comes to shove the Gov’t will back up the Staff, unless a scapegoat is needed, which is usually a higher -ranking bureaucrat. See COV for examples .
BCREA is private sector.
February 11th, 2009 at 8:51 am
“Too many people are sucking off the public tit and I as a taxpayer am sick of paying for it.”
Oh dear. Well, OK, then. No more taxes from you, I’m sure you have better things to do with your money.
Please don’t use our roads anymore, though, OK? You’ll have to make some new roads by hand. And, if you happen to have a crash on one of your new roads, don’t expect any ambulances (or hospitals, if you can make it yourself). Please start inspecting your own food, and while you’re at it, I suggest you get a water purification kit. I certainly hope your home doesn’t burn down or get robbed, but if it does, please don’t call 911, that’s a special number for people who live in a society.
Enjoy your time in the woods, Anonymous.
February 11th, 2009 at 9:12 am
NO -LYMPICS:
BCTF’s war chest (ie own money) is ultimately sourced from US taxpayers,…ie the wages WE pay the teachers are used to fund the BCTF.
Well yes of course they are. Just what is wrong with that? The teachers have just as much right to spend the money they earn to promote their own interests as anyone else.
Are you saying that just because someone works for the public sector, the wages they earn don’t really belong to them?
February 11th, 2009 at 9:53 am
patriotz:
Are you saying that just because someone works for the public sector, the wages they earn don’t really belong to them?
====
Not at all.
Unfortunately, what should be a group representing professionals gets co-opted into a politicized entity with a limited tunnel – vision agenda. The end result is usually about money and lack of accountability.
If they could present me a message I could buy into, a Win- Win for all concerned, more power to them, that’s healthy within a true democracy.
I could have brought the Nurses’ union into this discussion re: it’s recent media campaign.. but their’s is a message that I can often buy into.
When I compare the current public school system versus the past, it is so feather – bedded I am not surprised Johnny and Suzy can’t read, spell or do math, and that Kumon and Sylvan franchises pick up the slack.
The ultimate backwash from the products of the Public School system is the type of “sheepie” we VCI posters often refer to… a me -first “kool -aid swallowers” and lacking in critical thinking skills.
February 11th, 2009 at 10:01 am
Strength of Housing success comes from Canadian Developer,Main strength come from” DEVELOPERS IN VANCOUVER”, They had act accordingly,builders themselves were responding to the changing climate.Capping starts and slowing down building is good for house values in the long run. Cutting that supply when it is needed is crucial to avoid the housing crisis the US had when they did nothing but go gangbuster with loans to unqualified homeowners and builders alike.”New housing starts slashed in half”.-CMHC. IN result month over month prices are up in Vancouver and further stats are also carring same trends in it’s pocket,Inventory in core area is down from last month,Inventory in entire area is also down compare to last months.Sales are up as first seven bussiness days sales stand at 491 units compare to 773 sales for entire month in January.Vancouver Real Estate Boom2 Acquisition Is Countinue In A Progress because hey VANCOUVER REAL ESTATE NEVER GO DOWN.
February 11th, 2009 at 10:39 am
PG A 10 of today’s Vancouver Province
Full page ad. ( QUADRA HOMES )
Not a Condo Liquidation, but…
“We cannot properly describe our offer as a LIQUIDATION because:
- We are not under financial pressure from our bank to sell, in fact we are using our financial strength to provide our clients with 2.49 % – 5 year term mortgages.
– We are not “LIQUIDATING” picked over inventory, we are offering recently completed ultra – luxury condos.
Deposit on any unit is $5000.
Additional downpayment on “Move In” is between $13,000 to $14, 000 .
On a one bedroom suite, the price has already dropped from $398, 900 to $338,900
Most expensive unit a 2 master bedroom 2 garage was $444,900 , now dropped to $368,900 .
These are located at 990 Adair Ave. Coquitlam(near IKEA/ behind Sammy J Pepppers )
===============
Interesting…Are they trying to distance themselves from MAC Marketing ?
Why the big drops ? Isn’t the start of the prime RE season coming up?
Are the floodgates of recently completed inventory ready to burst?
link is http://www.BeautifulCondos.ca
======
February 11th, 2009 at 10:42 am
“If they could present me a message I could buy into, a Win- Win for all concerned, more power to them, that’s healthy within a true democracy.”
Except they are paid to represent their membership’s interest, not provide you with a message you can “buy into”. Pleasing you isn’t the hallmark of a healthy democracy.
“When I compare the current public school system versus the past, it is so feather – bedded I am not surprised Johnny and Suzy can’t read, spell or do math, and that Kumon and Sylvan franchises pick up the slack”
And isn’t that the bailiwick of the govt that sets the curriculum? It’s not the teachers that set the agenda, determine class sizes or decide what programs get funded. You got a beef about education policy and school performance? Take it up with the Ministry of Ed.
“lacking in critical thinking skills”
Pot, meet kettle.
February 11th, 2009 at 10:43 am
ella,
“Oh dear. Well, OK, then. No more taxes from you, I’m sure you have better things to do with your money.”
Your entire comment is a straw man. The original poster did not maintain that he wishes to pay no taxes. He merely said that he does not want to see tax dollars wasted. Those are entirely different claims, and I am at a loss to see how anyone with half a brain could conflate them.
February 11th, 2009 at 10:55 am
dingus:
Quote:
And isn’t that the bailiwick of the govt that sets the curriculum? It’s not the teachers that set the agenda, determine class sizes or decide what programs get funded. You got a beef about education policy and school performance? Take it up with the Ministry of Ed
=========
Are you speaking from experience, or simply postulating ?
It appears to be the latter.
February 11th, 2009 at 10:57 am
Anonymous:
He merely said that he does not want to see tax dollars wasted.
Nobody does. The problem is that people do not agree on what constitutes “wasting” tax dollars. If they did there would be no debate about it.
I, for example, consider the Olympics a colossal waste of money. However the other citizens of Vancouver disagreed with me by a margin of two to one. That is, until it suddenly dawned on them that they might end up paying for a good chunk of it. Amazing how that suddenly changes one’s point of view.
February 11th, 2009 at 10:58 am
“Are you speaking from experience, or simply postulating ?
It appears to be the latter.”
Huh??
February 11th, 2009 at 11:01 am
NO-OLYMPICS:
I think the threat of chronic strikes are real, and Harper is making a mistake in taking away arbitration without taking away the public servant’s right to strike. In other words, a downsizing of government is preferable to setting a bad precedent of not honouring arbitration. The long term damage to the arbitration process outweights the short term pain of pushing through layoffs.
February 11th, 2009 at 11:06 am
“Your entire comment is a straw man.”
The “too many people sucking off the public tit” is a straw man argument itself, so I’d say it’s a fair counter.
Nobody likes taxes. Everybody expects services. Those that rave about too high taxes or too many public servants don’t seem to get too granular about what they’d be willing to sacrifice, or make any sort of nuanced suggestion that there’s an optimal level of taxation balanced well with adequate service delivery. It’s just all waste. Until it impacts something near and dear to them, of course. Sure cut taxes to the bone. But complain about poor schools and crowded emergency rooms, crumbling infrastructure, inadequate laws that are poorly enforced, on and on and on. It’s straw man through and through.
February 11th, 2009 at 11:09 am
dingus: Teachers’s union do run the education system in this province, as they have for a long while. They’re probably the largest special interest group in this province. Teachers are probably the least accountable public employees at the provincial level. If hospitals are run like schools, it would be a horror show every day.
February 11th, 2009 at 11:15 am
PIP “Farewell”
Paul went down,blogs and stats are up till end of month.
February 11th, 2009 at 11:22 am
78 dingus Says:
February 11th, 2009 at 10:58 am
“Are you speaking from experience, or simply postulating ?
It appears to be the latter.”
Huh??
========================
Ok.
Try again:
Do you have any family members that have been in the BC Public School System in the last 10 -15 years ?
Have you been an active volunteer in a BC public school( ie PAC member, etc. )
February 11th, 2009 at 11:33 am
Post # 79 Markx:
I am not implying that :
It all goes back to my original premise of ” entitlement “.
IMHO….Okay… honour the current agreements, but our own leaders best be talking to the union leadership about seriously reduced expectations, and not “lather up with hollow self- serving rhetoric ” when the next round of negotiations comes up. It always comes down to the taxpayer’s ability to pay.
Many of these same upper echelon Civil Servants can be brutal wonks who can only justify their existence ( and paychecks) by creating more red tape lacking anything resembling public need nor benefit.
February 11th, 2009 at 11:37 am
Yes and yes, but what’s your point? No question teachers play a strong role and all that. I didn’t just fall off a turnip truck. But I’ll say again — policy is set by the govt. Standards are set by the govt. Funding is decided by the govt. Benchmarks for outcomes are set by the govt. Think schools are a feather bed that leave Suzy and Johnny to the tender mercies of Kumaon? Take it up with the govt instead of bitching about unions.
February 11th, 2009 at 11:38 am
“Many of these same upper echelon Civil Servants can be brutal wonks who can only justify their existence ( and paychecks) by creating more red tape lacking anything resembling public need nor benefit.”
Are you speaking from experience or just postulating?
February 11th, 2009 at 12:03 pm
Informer10: PaulB will be terribly missed. Bon voyage, PaulB, and best wishes for you and your family. Thanks for ALL you have saved us in mortgage principle and interest costs! We will NEVER forget you!!! God bless.
February 11th, 2009 at 12:10 pm
Big housing plan passed! Everyone getting a new house! Market going up soon. Government just print the money.
February 11th, 2009 at 12:21 pm
#87 – Do you ever get tired of trying to be funny, while all the time, being the farthest thing from it?
Time to show some maturity huh?
February 11th, 2009 at 12:47 pm
markx: “If hospitals are run like schools, it would be a horror show every day.”
Before you judge a man, try walking a mile in his shoes. Believe it or not there are good teachers around as there are bad health care workers. It’s easy to blame the workers when perhaps the larger problem is the environment handed to them by our train of elected leaders.
Let me ask you this, would you be willing to give teachers 25% raises if they improved their performance standards?
February 11th, 2009 at 12:51 pm
If there were ever any “brutal wonks” in the civil service the private sector head-hunted them long ago.
February 11th, 2009 at 1:18 pm
dingus:
re: Your “yes and yes”
If there is curriculum , why does the BCTF fear for FSA ? If they are following the curriculum, should each district have approx. the same bell curve? If not, then perhaps this requires closer scrutiny.
Much like B.C. Local Gov’ts are given a lot of autonomy, so is each B.C. School District. Then, within the given school district, is the autonomy within each school
Your school administrators (Principals) should be managers,and deal with parent issues as a top priority if they are valid..aka “customer service”. but these Principals often get eaten alive by the teachers if certain lines get crossed.
My experience has been grades K – 7 are the self esteem mantra aka dumbing -down ….and core skills like Math seem to be beyond the grasp of many teachers. They seem to fluff things up in the so -called curriculum….almost on a “fine arts” track.
I will admit High School is different, more focus…but by that point a lot of walking wounded from K – 7 that will struggle because they have been moved along from one grade to the next and told “everything is fine” till the actual truth states otherwise.
I’ve been an active Volunteer at public schools…and lived to tell the tale. If anyone thinks the Public system does not have a nasty underbelly run by an “old boys club”…you really don’t get out much.
When I read the various horror stories about what has happened to the “sheepies in society”, it doesn’t surpise me one bit , given people’s self -induced denial and ignorance of what goes on in various public and private institutions .
February 11th, 2009 at 1:21 pm
actually jesse, teachers get paid very well at the moment..
February 11th, 2009 at 1:32 pm
90 kuroame Says:
February 11th, 2009 at 12:51 pm
If there were ever any “brutal wonks” in the civil service the private sector head-hunted them long ago
=====
I only wish !
What you will find is an Old Boys Club “swap meet” .
Many senior bureaucrats will be “removed” from a Local Gov’t. Often they have had clash with the City CAO.
Then, and after perhaps a severance package they magically re-appear at a nearby Local Gov’t. This often happens with City Planners .
Without mentioning names..Surrey lost a couple of planners to Richmond. They were in Richmond for a few years….. then gone.
Where did they go ?
Back to Surrey. !
Richmonds Head Planner a few years back got bounced…then I see them on TV working for another local City.
The ones that are left are likely lick- spittle spineless toadies and thus often bad for the given City…hence my ” brutal wonk” comment.
This “swap’em and trade ‘ em” system creates a balance(?) and more importantly a relief valve for all Local Gov’ts to change or remove staff “for whatever reason” and stop lawsuits etc.
February 11th, 2009 at 1:49 pm
Post 85 dingus
Answer: LOTS and LOTS and LOTS of experience.
Truth is often much stranger than postulation.
Actually I was talking to a colleague yesterday. They had a meeting with senior staff member(ie #2 guy ..right hand man of the City CAO ) of a Local Gov’t.
This wonk had an army of (6) OTHER senior staff from various departments to sit in on the meeting.
Total: 7 versus 1 .
My colleague had very basic questions that the wonk should have answered…and then the wonk gets frsutrated and claims my colleague is wasting money by using up these other peoples time ??
My colleague retorts :
(i) he never asked the others to be there
(ii)it is HIS taxes that pay their salaries, thus its his taxes they are wasting in this snivel servant effort at bullying/ intimidation .
At the end this City Hall “brain trust”( which collectively must be sucking close to $1 million in annual salaries) stiil couldn’t give my colleague a straight answer.
Brutal wonks supreme. !!!
February 11th, 2009 at 2:24 pm
read on: Teachers get paid really well? Yet you agree there is definite variance between ability and quality amongst teachers? The question is, are you willing to pay more for a higher quality product?
February 11th, 2009 at 3:24 pm
NO -LYMPICS:
I have some first hand experiance with the varied competance of individual school districts having put a child through school in three. I made the huge mistake of putting my child into the Surrey school district in Gr 1. I thought the cheap real estate was of some benefit so I bought a house close to a school in Cloverdale.
By the time Gr. 3 came around I was seriously concerned that the school wasn’t teaching the kids to read or write. When I brought this up with the teacher I was told that the students would learn from each other at their own pace. When I began correcting my childs homework I was chastised by the teacher because this was not how they wanted things done.
They were actively not teaching the kids to read, write and develop math skills. They also cancelled awards ceremonies and excellance awards, everyone got a green ribbon. When I complained to the principal I got the impression that I wasn’t welcome.
I promptly moved to the Richmond school district, it was like night and day. The staff formed a kind of reaction team and spent the entire year bring my child up to speed. He began to excel.
I began to research. I found that Surrey graduates the fewest kids, has the highest drop out rate and has only 1.7% of graduates able to enter University with the neccesary grades. Less than 2 in 100 !!
It hit me that this was why the GR 12 curriculum at the Cloverdale high school was auto shop and cooking. The school system was socially engineering low end workers and had no interest in higher education.
Richmond graduates 70% of it’s kids and 15% are getting high enough marks to qualify for University entrance. This is the information that the BCTF is fighting to suppress. They don’t want to know what they are doing with the school system. They do not want to answer for the failure rate. All schools and districts are not equal.
But even in Richmond it was uneven, some schools performing much better than others. In my kids 9th year something happened, a new Principal came to the top performing school where I was and changed the direction of the curriculum. They were no longer willing to discuss University preperation. It started to sound very Surrey to me.
Luckily my child recieved an offer from Vancouvers top Private school and ecieved a full 3 year scholarship to attend there. The school had 100% graduation and 99% University acceptance grades.
I thank the Fraser Institute for publishing the school stats ( FSA) it was a real eye opener and I saved my child from a slow drift into hell by realizing I had to pull out of the Surrey School district and fast.
Last point. Why is it during the build up to and during every strike the BCTF is shouting about ‘the kids’, class sizes, special needs, libraries etc etc, and then as soon as they get a big signing bonus you never hear another peep from them.
It seems to me that they are just using as children as pawns in the union greed swill game of use the publics weaknesses against them so “e can get a big fat bonus and more diamond studs in our pension plan” It is kind of sickening after the 10th time or so.
Don’t let anyone tell you that the FSA isn’t the tool that tells the truth about school performance. If you want your kid to fail trust the BCTF, if you want your kid to succeed put your trust in the Fraser Institute and get into a better performing school right away.
February 11th, 2009 at 3:57 pm
realestatesplatter
Awesome post !
Re the FSA’s
I don’t claim the FSA are the be all and end all ..but they at least give one some sort of point of reference.
However, I do not find it a coincidence that schools with good reputations do well on FSA’s
I have found the evolution of teaching fascinating. There is a person (name escapes me ) in the US who was on ex hippy..bought the edcuation kool aid..till LO AND BEHOLD had his own chidren in the public system. He then re-evaluated it and harkened back to the public school system he went through in NYC the 1950’s and the modern day one.
Now he is a vocal critic of the current public school system, when comparing it with what he considerd was an excellent public system that he had graduated from .
He makes a lot of keen observations. He stated that something as simple as the desk orientations ie in a circle are not conducive to learning , that the old rows of desks created a better learning environment. The BCTF etc would state that the circle/hexagon configuration is more social justice communal oriented.
One amusing anecdote he had was a person that looked dishevelled and homeless wandering around the school playground which conerned him. Upon further inquiry, he found out that person was actually a school district employee that they couldn’t fire(strong union) and was simply sent to that school for appearances of a job .
February 11th, 2009 at 5:05 pm
realestatesplatter: “I thank the Fraser Institute for publishing the school stats ( FSA) it was a real eye opener and I saved my child from a slow drift into hell by realizing I had to pull out of the Surrey School district and fast.”
You did the right thing by being selfish and self-selecting. Look at it from the BCTF’s standpoint though. If everyone does what you do the disadvantaged schools start slipping farther down the slope and allowing them to fail is the government and the teacher’s problem to clean up in the end. Whether you agree or not, we need a meritocracy and that involves helping and advocating for underperforming districts. The alternative is social stratification. Just saying, don’t completely blame a school district’s failures on the union. A lack of vision at the provincial level is equally to blame IMO.
As far as this relates to housing and condos, well now you know why some areas have higher prices than others.
February 11th, 2009 at 5:47 pm
jesse just made the point I would have.
Nolympics seems to think kids’ performance on that test will be equal across all schools provided an equal level of instruction is provided (and the FSA would therefore evaluate teacher performance) which is nonsense. Obviously different areas of town will have kids of different social and economic backgrounds and therefore different outcomes on testing like this. Point Grey vs. E Hastings, for example.
The one major objection to the testing is to not to get into a self fulfilling prophecy where more engaged parents of brighter kids select schools with better test scores, which results in better test scores for those schools because the brighter kids happen to be there. With the result that those kids are creamed off from the rest of the system, and the schools with poorer test scores get more kids with “issues” or from unstable family contexts or what have you, and therefore get poorer test scores. And hey presto, the local school turns into a hellhole because the smart privilged kids are commuting to the west side.
But, hey, I have kids and I did my utmost to get them into a really good school. Lofty ideas about equity and systemic balance fly right out the window when you talk about your own kids. So, mark me down as ambivalent.
February 11th, 2009 at 5:52 pm
realestatesplatter
Last point. Why is it during the build up to and during every strike the BCTF is shouting about ‘the kids’, class sizes, special needs, libraries etc etc, and then as soon as they get a big signing bonus you never hear another peep from them.
It seems to me that they are just using as children as pawns in the union greed swill game of use the publics weaknesses against them so “e can get a big fat bonus and more diamond studs in our pension plan” It is kind of sickening after the 10th time or so.
=========
Most of us old school types graduated from the public school system, and received an excellent education , both formal and informal.
That has allowed many of us to cut throught the BS.
The school system has got it all bass ackwards. It coddles and confuses people with terms of reference like ” social justice ” and ” self -esteem “.
In my view that creates weak and selfish people, ie the exact opposite via the chase to the lowest common denominator.
There is all the featherbedding with support staff, who the teachers pawn the students off on if the concepts are not grasped. That starts its own vicious circle of the student as a badminton birdie left treading water.
Granted there are some very good public schools…but why is it so hit and miss ?
All it takes is such things a new Principal with a new so-called vision and it can go downhill very quickly.
In essence its all about money , benefits ,membership numbers = union dues and political influence to achieve the aforementioned.
February 11th, 2009 at 6:02 pm
dingus:
This is what I said earlier:
“If there is curriculum , why does the BCTF fear for FSA ? If they are following the curriculum, should each district have approx. the same bell curve? If not, then perhaps this requires closer scrutiny.”
Of course the results would show a difference between say Point Grey versus East Side. Are we afraid to identify that?
One you identify a school that has problems, shouldn’t that be one to focus the resources on?
Hollywood has made several movies on how the shittiest “real life” inner city ghettos school have had a few determined Principals and Staff turn them into top achieving schools.
Unfortunately here in BC…militant unions would kibbosh that progressive move at REAL Social Justice and TRUE Self Esteem
February 11th, 2009 at 6:19 pm
“shouldn’t that be one to focus the resources on?”
Yup. Or blame the teachers. We’ve talked a lot here about blaming teachers. Not so much about resources. And you wonder why teachers would be less than thrilled.
Your model for reform is a Michelle Pfeiffer movie?
February 11th, 2009 at 6:34 pm
I thought the cheap real estate was of some benefit so I bought a house close to a school in Cloverdale…
I promptly moved to the Richmond school district, it was like night and day.
But the teachers in both Richmond and Cloverdale are all BCTF, aren’t they?
Isn’t it obvious what really matters about public education? What really matters is the attitude and motivation toward education in the pupil’s homes. If kids come from homes where the parents don’t really care about education, the game is lost from the word go.
That’s the real problem – not the BCTF, not the Ministry of Education, not the school boards, but a popular culture that does not value intellectual achievement and is hostile to the fact that some kids just happen to be smarter than others.
February 11th, 2009 at 6:43 pm
no-lympics: “Unfortunately here in BC…militant unions would kibbosh that progressive move at REAL Social Justice and TRUE Self Esteem”
Save the rhetoric. An attitude like that will not accomplish anything. The unions are here so might as well find some common ground and work from there. Starving the school system then turning around claiming it’s not adequate and blaming the unions for getting in the way of the public’s wishes is an old yarn and still I have yet to see it a successful gambit.
February 11th, 2009 at 6:44 pm
dingus;
Ok, obviously we have struck a chord…
I’ve been there , done that … have you ?
I’m not blaming teachers,per se , its the system and environment that has evolved in which they pursue their profession and cannot do their jobs properly.
IMHO, many children get passed along like a bucket brigade from K – 7.
Seen too many examples of ” write-offs ” that left the public system then prospered outside it.
Care to share some insight and experience ?
February 11th, 2009 at 6:52 pm
“I’m not blaming teachers,per se , its the system and environment that has evolved in which they pursue their profession and cannot do their jobs properly.”
“I’ve been there , done that … have you ?”
[slaps head, moves on, is now thinking about butterflies]
February 11th, 2009 at 6:58 pm
Patriotz:
Sorry but the system does not have clear and definitive parametes for the parents to assess how Johnny and Suzy are doing. parents are told all is well and all sorts of subjective rhetoric.
That’s why the BCTF dislkes the FSA.
=====================================
jesse…
Starving the system ?
BCTF ? Theres’ your rhetoric.
If they want to play politics run for office or STFU !
About 92% of the school district budgets goes to salaries.
School Districts are not starved for funds. That’s the rhetoric . It’s how they determine priorities that’s the problem.
February 11th, 2009 at 7:03 pm
jesse:
Hi Jesse, isn’t what you describe the very opposite of a meritocracy?
“Whether you agree or not, we need a meritocracy and that involves helping and advocating for underperforming districts.”
I thought that a meritocracy allows for the recognition of the best performers. No?
It was my experiance that some schools have an ability to engender excellence and some don’t. These are the numbers that show up on the FSA. These are the numbers the BCTF hates to have made public. It’s all in the Fraser Institutes annual reports.
The focus on excellence at the private school I was involved in was the raison d’etre of the school and they persued it vigourously. Why not such attention on quality in the public system? When you have an entire district producing only 1.7% of graduates able to enter University and another 1000% more doesn’t that cut across all social strata. The data suggests that it is the school district not the kids who come from a variety of backgrounds. The private school had excellent art and sport and social oriented programs but they did it along side a focus on what will get you into University ie your actual marks.
They didn’t sacrifice one to the exclusion of the other. The sports teams were Provincial Champs, The artists also recognized etc etc. Public schools, not so much. Why? It’s not funding, it’s willpower.
I really thought that it ( the public schools with zero emphasis on academics) was an experiment in social engineering the numbers varied so widely, what explanation can there be? It’s not as if there isn’t affluence in Surrey.
Yes of course I did the right thing by being ’selfish and selective’, but I did manage to navigate the maggot soup of the educational system in BC and got my son away with a full resident scholarship at a top flight University and not into short order cooking or auto shop which was all that was available to the kids of the poor braindead smhucks who traded cheap real estate for thier childrens future.
Thats not selectivity as you suggest, thats just good parenting on my part.
February 11th, 2009 at 7:07 pm
NO -LYMPICS:
Sorry but the system does not have clear and definitive parametes for the parents to assess how Johnny and Suzy are doing. parents are told all is well and all sorts of subjective rhetoric.
Who give a rat’s ass what parameters the system has? It’s the duty of every parent to evaluate their child’s own educational progress. The reason schools aren’t frank with parents is because the parents don’t want them to be frank.
Want to know if your kid can add? Why not sit them down and ask them to do some addition? Just how hard is that?
Children from families where education is valued do well at school.
February 11th, 2009 at 7:15 pm
patriotz:
You’re quite right on the nature nuture argument. It does take parenting, for sure. When two cars and a second set of golf clubs is more important than the kids focus thats where the cracks appear in the who what where of individual achievement department.
Yes they are all BCTF, thats what makes it so bizarre. I found the Surrey schools were not teaching scholastics and left and when I went to the Richmond school ( I had pinpointed this school using the Fraser Institute numbers and bought a house in the cachement) they understood right away without testing or asking.
They set about right away and began re-educating my child in a completly differant way with emphasis on scholastics. Private tutor, the whole nine yards. It really was an eye opener.
I can only suggest that it was a well known fact that the Richmond people knew exactly what a Cloverdale pupil was not being taught. Go figure.
My suggested bottom line, find a house or an accomadation in the best school district witht he highest test scores, thats where you’ve got the best chance of finding success for your children. Letting yourself get caught up in that social engineering nonsense and if your child fails you only have yourself to blame. Thats a heavy price to pay for supporting the politically correct dogma and experimentation of the BCTF.
February 11th, 2009 at 7:16 pm
realestatesplatter:
They didn’t sacrifice one to the exclusion of the other. The sports teams were Provincial Champs, The artists also recognized etc etc. Public schools, not so much. Why? It’s not funding, it’s willpower/
Really it’s a group of students who would have done well no matter what school they went to.
The reason why students at the “top” schools do better is that the “top” schools get the best students. It’s that simple.
If you bused the students from the FI’s “top-rated” school across town to the bottom-rated school, and vice versa, the students would not achieve any differently.
So maybe you can get an idea why public school teachers don’t like those ratings? Why should teachers be judged on the quality of the students in the local area of their school?
February 11th, 2009 at 7:17 pm
patriotz:
It was my experiance that certain schools are deliberatly not teaching kids to add and subtract.
February 11th, 2009 at 7:24 pm
patriotz:
Then how do you explain how an entire school district only gets 2 out of 100 kids into University? It’s not the kids , it’s the schools, for sure. They are teaching a very differant education to the kids in Surrey. And not to rag on Surrey alone, there are many schools in affluent areas which do very poorly. The entire enviornment is tainted by a lack of excellence in some schools and that causes kids to seek the lowest common denominator to fit in.
February 11th, 2009 at 7:27 pm
Doesn’t surprise me at all. So why aren’t they?
They can be only one answer – the parents don’t care. There can be only one explanation for the difference in schools between Richmond and Surrey – the parents in Richmond care enough to elect a school board that takes education seriously, and the parents in Surrey don’t.
In a democracy ultimate responsibility rests with the voters.
February 11th, 2009 at 7:29 pm
realestatesplatter:
Then how do you explain how an entire school district only gets 2 out of 100 kids into University? It’s not the kids , it’s the schools, for sure.
Sorry, I don’t buy that. I grew up in a small town where everyone went to the same schools. It’s the kids. Some kids are just smarter and better motivated than others. That’s all there is too it.
February 11th, 2009 at 7:39 pm
patriotz:
As a victim of a hundred thousand PAC meetings and various info sessions I can affirm that it was always the same parents showing up.
February 11th, 2009 at 7:54 pm
C’mon patriotz
I really enjoy reading your posts, intelligent, often some of the best, but I think you are really off base on this.
The textbooks I had ( I will refer to MATH specifically )were works of art insofar as breaking down a topic, creating clarity and understanding for the student. If one didn’t understand a question…one could refer back to the background material.
The text books now are pure junk…they look like coloured comic books and leave serious gaps of logic and continuity.
Teachers send home “One of ” photocopied sheets that have no background to refer to. ie what IS the question asking ?
One year a given school had a ” fine arts” focus. Math homework consisted of bizarre geometric designs I had never seen before… and I have seen other examples of this same BS foisted onto students deemed weak in math skills, (ie it fills the “math” void and counts for math ??)
Please don’t blame the home environment… it can be as frustrating for the concerned pro-active parent as the student.
February 11th, 2009 at 8:09 pm
Wow, a new purpose-built market rental building in Coquitlam:
http://greenboroughapartments.com/
IIRC that may have been a City requirement for approval of the larger Windsor Gate development.
February 11th, 2009 at 9:01 pm
Yell Town?
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....10784.html
Browntown/SATV/Nutslapper? Is that you?
“beautiful vew, 2 years new jim parking locker.”
February 11th, 2009 at 10:58 pm
“I thought that a meritocracy allows for the recognition of the best performers. No?”
You need to abstract it to the next level. Stratification is a sort of self-fulfilling meritocracy — those with means percolate to the best schools and perform at a high level, those without means perform below. This is what the BCTF argues is wrong with the FSA system. The issue is do we cripple a bright child without the economic means or do we give him/her a fighting chance? If you think there is any hint of genius being born, not taught, there must be a method of allowing these children the means to succeed regardless of lot in life: a meritocracy. FSA, so the argument goes, acts counter to this and is not in the best interests of maximising the province’s long term potential.
February 11th, 2009 at 11:10 pm
“My suggested bottom line, find a house or an accomadation in the best school district witht he highest test scores, thats where you’ve got the best chance of finding success for your children. Letting yourself get caught up in that social engineering nonsense and if your child fails you only have yourself to blame.”
Agree for sure. The micro reality is the system will slap you around unless you figure it out and look out for #1. I totally get that. The consequences of this is the question. I believe there needs to be a mechanism to enable class mobility and how the school system is set up is an integral part of this. “Social engineering” still exists by doing nothing and letting schools self-select; it’s a conscious choice of the government to let that happen in the first place.
February 12th, 2009 at 1:28 am
Anon#59,
Sorry it took so long to get back to you…
My friends who do the same job as I do make about twice what I make. There is the chance that they could be laid off soon but they’ve been making that money for years now. If they’d put it away instead of buying huge flat screens and big expensive pickups they might be able to ride out the slow times. And when times are good they ask me what I’m doing wasting my time where I am. I tell them “the pension”. Yes, I have a pension. Don’t hate me. But I sacrificed the big bucks for security. And please don’t call it a diamond studded pension. It’s not. Find out what pensioners are “raking in” before you comment. And besides, they earned it by showing up every day for 30+ years.
Now for those of you who are staunchly anti union…
Unions were created so that the little guy could have a voice. Otherwise the bosses, in my case the provincial government, might just decide to tear up it’s contracts. I can guarantee this government would like to. And it’s not because we are paid too much. It’s because they want to pay us less. Which is different.
If you’re looking for someone to blame for the current economic downturn, look somewhere else. We got 2% after years of getting 0%. All this when real estate was going up double digits. And we’ll very likely get nothing again in the next round of negotiations. There might even be concessions. By the way, what kind of raise did Campbell give himself?
Finally, I can’t speak for the teachers but in my time I’ve known a few. Some are good, some not so good. Some are great. As far as the strike went the way I see it is this government is a bully. They pushed and pushed and the teachers were forced to push back. The public was dragged into it but it wasn’t the teachers’ fault. It was this governments obnoxious habit of tearing up legally binding and intensely negotiated contracts.
February 12th, 2009 at 4:53 am
“My friends who do the same job as I do make about twice what I make.”
I don’t believe that. Name the trade and branch of government and hourly rate.
February 12th, 2009 at 6:23 am
With my job there is NO OVERTIME. When my friend showed me his paystub it was almost the same as mine. Only difference is, he gets his every week. In other words TWICE MINE. I’m tired of explaining it. Either believe me or don’t. Fact is, the turn over rate for tradesmen where I work was very high during the boom because they knew they could make a lot more money elsewhere. Now of course, I have people calling to see if there is any openings.
February 12th, 2009 at 3:08 pm
jesse:
Everyone should consider the best needs and outcomes of the child and everyone rich or poor has the option to move thier children out of a bad school and move into the cachement of a better one.
The FSA provides proof that the school is either teaching foundation skills or it isn’t. Bright children are being crippled ( as I found out personally) by schools and school districts that are not teaching basic academic skills. When I got my kid out of a bad school and into a proven good one he went scholarship all the way and hasn’t stopped since. I didn’t move to a rich are, I’m not rich, I saw that a particular school had a better attitude and it showed up in the better FSA results.
Taking that further, why was our second high school St.Georges, ( which my son attended on a full scholarship) achieving 100% graduation and 99% Uni entrance? There were a lot of rich kids for sure but if all the kids are the same then why should all of this group be so successful? Shouldn’t there have been an average number of failures such as there is in the public system. It would seem that the provincial curiculum when properly taught gives every kid a shot, rich or poor. The public system does not provide the kids willing teachers who are interested in producing excellance.
My conclusion was that the school district was purposefully dumbing down the expectations of the students by not pushing excellence and instead handing out green ribbons for all. I shudder to think how many other bright kids in that school have had thier potential downgraded by not taught basic skills.
The proof is in the pudding, Surrey has the highest drop out rate and the lowest FSA scores, hence only 1.7% of grads can go to University. These are the flotsam and jetsam of the future union movement.