Welcome!
Comments
- SuperSmartBull: @Devore: You guys are hilarious, setting up straw men left and right. I said a 90’s type drift...
- SuperSmartBull: @VRENGD: You lost me at Prices are up in Vancouver over 300% in the last 5-6 years. Flat out not...
- Devore: @SuperSmartBull: The early 80’s? Are you asking seriously why that isn’t comparable to today? - Prices...
- r_j_b: @NO-LYMPICS: Gotta love the bx cable sitting on the wet floor.
- NO-LYMPICS: Re Sugar Living video. There ya go…..still trust Gov’t and regulation? What a nightmare. The...
BC blog links
Blogroll
charts and data
other provinces
rental listings
usa market
VCI Wiki
-
Recent Posts
- Friday Free-for-all!
- advice: lock in for 25 year term
- Vancouvers Olympic Ghost Town
- The banks are struggling
- Income properties: $65k per bedroom
- Friday Free-for-all!
- BMO cuts rates “great time to buy”
- Don’t say ‘bubble’
- The MLS under seige
- The death of the American Dream
- Friday free-for-all!
- Leaky condo music video
- US Housing market continues plummet
- Government policy and house prices.
- Vancouver Land Development Guide
In the Forum:
- September data
Last Post By: vanpro
Inside: Market Data - Olympic Village
Last Post By: vangrl
Inside: General Chatter - Total Inventory for all REBGV
Last Post By: bearishbull
Inside: Market Data - REBGV August 2010 Stats
Last Post By: Starving Artist
Inside: Market Data - Aug/10 REBGV Stats
Last Post By: vanpro
Inside: General Chatter - August numbers
Last Post By: vanpro
Inside: Market Data
- September data
Wordpress theme by Abhishek Tripathi of Mediawick Digital Solutions
February 10th, 2009 at 11:06 pm
39 Cympl Says:
February 10th, 2009 at 9:07 pm
“Belt tightening?
So what’s wrong with that?”
What’s wrong is that belt tightening during a recession worsens things.
=====
There is ” belt tightening ” …….and then there is BELT TIGHTENING.
Too much fiat money was floating around and debt was packaged and flipped many times as a commodity .
Gov’ts are the worst perpetrators in serious need of BELT TIGHTENING. They piss so much $$$ down rat holes at the best of times…, yet when times are bad they re-discover crumbling infrastructure . Have it totally ” bass ackwards ” .
” Belt tightening” for us lesser mortals is aligned more with feeding/starving the credit monster. Non sustainable , provides badly skewed perspective on the economy and due to implode sooner than later . In other words, I don’t feel I have an obligation to society to ” Pay ZERO down and O interest till year 3000 “.
February 10th, 2009 at 10:41 pm
47 globbyblatt Says:
February 10th, 2009 at 10:27 pm
British paper tells ‘ DIVA GENERATION ‘ grads that the jobs party is over.
====
Hey:
That’s deja vu all over again.
That’s a sequel to the early 1980’s
TV pilot show…
” That 80’s Show ”
…20% interest rates , job market crashes and burns…PhD’s driving cabs and waiting tables.
February 10th, 2009 at 10:36 pm
patriotz:
Gov’t CAN do anything..( except go broke ).
In lean economic times, whats your call if ( and the assumption is to avoid deficit financing )it’s a choice between clawback of wages to allow for crucial funding for say health care….or deficit financing to honour the contracts.
Again keep in mind there would be no layoffs.
February 10th, 2009 at 10:27 pm
NO -LYMPICS:
Those contracts were signed under certain economic projections. I highly doubt a black swan event was on their radar.
The pre-sale contracts that people are now getting sued for were also signed under “certain economic conditions”. That’s not a reason for the purchasers to ask to get out of them.
The City of Vancouver guaranteed the completion of the Olympic Village under “certain economic conditions”. It can’t walk away from that just because times have changed.
A contract is a contract. The government employees cannot go to the bank and ask them to drop the rate on their mortgage just because times are tough. If the little guys cannot walk away from their obligations, why should the big guys be allowed to?
The government employees are entitled to receive their contracted compensation until the end of the contract, just like anyone else. The government has no right to renege on its obligations just because it thought the good times would last forever.
February 10th, 2009 at 10:27 pm
British paper tells ‘ DIVA GENERATION ‘ grads that the jobs party is over. As opposed to ads here in that are still spooning out the kool aid how ‘companies that are hiring’. The jobs available were for prison guards, nice career.
In a report today, students are warned they no longer have the ‘upper hand’ in the job markets.
A growing number of ‘diva’ or ‘ Generation Y’ graduates, who expect everything to fall into their laps, are rapidly ‘coming down to earth’, it concludes.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/new.....ncies.html
Maybe our local grads should consider a nice career in rickshaw pushing during the Olympics?
If the savings rate is zero, and the job prospects are zero then who makes the rent payment? Escort services are probably getting more resumes than ever.
February 10th, 2009 at 10:07 pm
Good point. I guess what I was thinking was that once job losses happen it would weigh down on GDP even more because of decreased spending, hence it would delay recovery in GDP. Kind of like a traffic jam, once it forms, no matter how much your push on the pedal, it only moves so fast.
February 10th, 2009 at 9:58 pm
41 Hovering Says:
February 10th, 2009 at 9:11 pm
NO -LYMPICS:
Hey don’t get me wrong, I’m all for a little belt tightening. But don’t you think legislating your way around what was supposed to be “binding arbitration” is going to come around to bite the gov’t in the ass?
===========
My point was more aimed at the culture of entitlement some groups seem to have. A lot of labour peace was bought to coincidentally tide over till after the Olympics.
Those contracts were signed under certain economic projections. I highly doubt a black swan event was on their radar.
So, with revenue projections shot…and these groups having higher, if not THE highest job security, do we go into deficit financing to fund these…or do things like the price of many things (ie cost of living)will have come down during the contracts ,…so its the same difference.
Or maintaining these contracts in tough economic times is almost tantamount to double -dipping ? The private sector would honour it, but then lay them off.
February 10th, 2009 at 9:49 pm
34 trollbuster Says:
February 10th, 2009 at 7:54 pm
supraboy is a white racist pretending to be chinese
NOLYMIPICs is a supraboy wanna be
===
Who is NOLYMIPICS ?
February 10th, 2009 at 9:18 pm
observer: “It does seem funny that the BOC is predicting a rebound in 2010 given that the job losses are just starting now. “
Actually job losses typically lag GDP drops as job gains lag GDP recoveries. I agree though a rebound in early 2010 is optimistic.
February 10th, 2009 at 9:15 pm
NO -LYMPICS: That tyee article is hilarious, as if some entity has a magic knob to juice incomes. No really, Monte, just HOW would you raise incomes exactly? I’d really like to see your plan in more detail.
“While there is no one solution that will close the $200,000 canyon between what British Columbians earn and the homes they seek…”
How about lower prices? It is so simple it boggles the mind. WTF. The tyee can do better than this.
February 10th, 2009 at 9:11 pm
NO -LYMPICS:
Hey don’t get me wrong, I’m all for a little belt tightening. But don’t you think legislating your way around what was supposed to be “binding arbitration” is going to come around to bite the gov’t in the ass?
I hated my time in France. Damn strikes. Every second plane train or museum was shut due to some strike or another. And the farmers with their tractors blocking the roads.. give me arbitration anyday.
February 10th, 2009 at 9:08 pm
What’s funny is how no economist who’s for the bailouts can explain how it will create demand for their goods. Because it won’t. It’s life support. It’s waste.
February 10th, 2009 at 9:07 pm
“Belt tightening?
So what’s wrong with that?”
What’s wrong is that belt tightening during a recession worsens things. People tend to think of the economy as if it was their personal household – meaning, debt is bad and saving money is good. The economy is different than this, it needs activity to keep alive and when people get scared they stop spending, start saving, and this causes a nasty downward spiral. Consumer A stops spending on business B, business B therefore stops buying supplies from business C, etc.
February 10th, 2009 at 8:55 pm
It does seem funny that the BOC is predicting a rebound in 2010 given that the job losses are just starting now. If they had said 2011, that might have been more plausible (though not necessarily more likely).
It seems the private industry economists are not in agreement with the BOC and neither is the IMF. And just today, Carney qualified that this rebound is dependent on US stimulus working. Clearly, but if that is the case, and he can’t predict how likely the stimulus is going to work, then one wonders exactly how useful are his predictions in the first place?
February 10th, 2009 at 8:54 pm
NO -LYMPICS:
The best solution: Boost family income by 85 per cent
There are two ways to narrow B.C.’s housing gap: Either raise incomes, or lower the cost of housing.
Boost incomes! Wow, why didn’t I think of that! Everyone can just ask their boss for a 85% raise!
That has to be a nominee for the Most Ridiculous Economic Idea Award.
Who is going to “boost” incomes? God? Incomes are determined by the labour market. The labour market has resulted in real incomes falling since 1982. That’s not going to change. In a serious recession of all times.
There is only one way for the housing affordability question to be resolved, and that’s for prices to come down, big time, just like everywhere else with inflated prices.
February 10th, 2009 at 8:27 pm
Can someone explain how any of the experts predicting anything but a deep recession right now are coming up with their figures?
It’s all arbitrary isn’t it? It’s ridiculous. What’s worse is they are given such a loud voice.
February 10th, 2009 at 8:19 pm
Why many of you here care what an idiot like supraboy says? He may not even be a Chinese but a racist white just like #33 said. I know lots of Asian, mainly Chinese and Korean who bought Mcmansions in Vancouver West and Westwood Plateau with a huge mortgage. The the biggest mortgage I saw for a VW McMansion is $2.5 million completed in last May. As new immigrants they took advantage of banks’ new immigrant program and borrowing money with declared income. Some people have big income back to China or Korea to support the mortgage but I do know lots of them don’t. They only have 35 or 40% plus some extra cash enough to pay their mortgage for couple of year. They moved here and no longer have any business back home. They are the ones will be forced to sell very soon.
February 10th, 2009 at 7:54 pm
supraboy is a white racist pretending to be chinese
NOLYMIPICs is a supraboy wanna be
February 10th, 2009 at 7:29 pm
anon: I didn’t see that many rental listings in the Vancouver Sun, so I searched exclusively on craigslist and the vancouver rental sites that some ads would link to. I had likely through this site, already gotten the impression that craigslist rental listing were overpriced and, in fact, as you put it there were mostly “accidental” landlords listing their townhomes.
My requirement was for 2.5 or 3 baths and so I didn’t visit any condos. In the end I felt that the duplex I selected was fairly priced (freshly painted, ample space, with good carpets and newer appliances—the owner even agreed to put in a new stove). While I suppose a lease protects both ways, I wasn’t asked to sign one, only write out 6 post-dated cheques as my landlord was not new at this and judged I wasn’t some transient. He was exceptionally patient in giving me time to check out the place (I went there three times!) and himself pointed out things he was fixing up for the place.
February 10th, 2009 at 7:03 pm
Sold2Soon: What were your main sources for rental listings. The tsunami of rental listings in craigslist are littered with delusional, ‘accidental’ landlords. My wife and I are starting to look for rentals for our family of 4.
We have a big down payment locked and loaded but are waiting for sane pricing. My folks sold last May (with Paul B’s help) to a family of greater fools who are now holding on to 2 houses (was not subject to the sale of their home).
February 10th, 2009 at 6:52 pm
“I was at FutureShop”
I was there the other night. Had to leave because the sales dudes were driving me nuts.
Every time I turned a corner, a red shirt greeted me. Then one sort of latched on to me when I stood in front of a TV for too long. I’m familiar with how FS works but this was overkill.
February 10th, 2009 at 6:26 pm
Some interesting observations from my recent 3-BR rental (of course, it can’t be a purchase—not for a VCI disciple!) search in Richmond:
In one townhome complex near #4 and Alderbridge two of the townhome units lowered their rentals from $1700 and $1650 to match another unit asking $1560 (Compare that to 1-BR rates in Vancouver). I even got a call back from the landlords enquiring whether rent was a factor which was a pleasant surprise! What was interesting here was that in these two particular units, young folks had bought only a year ago and in both cases they were transferred out East.
In a large farm house, one independent portion of the home containing 4 large BRs Bathrooms with 3300 sq ft. space, had the rent lowered from its original ask of $1850 to $1600. (Initially I was offered the reduced rent, privately, but about a week after I declined mainly due to the location on #6 Road, I observed an ad for the place with the reduced rent).
I finally settled for a 1700 sq ft. duplex some blocks south of City Hall for $1650 with a slight rent reduction and a bonus 1/2 month rent waiver. The landlord, an affable gentleman, mentioned that his previous tenant had lost his job but that wasn’t all: the tenant in the other duplex (a salesman) and his son (in construction), had also lost their jobs, but with the new bridge coming, he seemed to think that the son would probably be okay.
Definitely a buyers and a renters market! The stories down south are frightening, but the fallout disccussed in VCI over the last many months is certainly hitting home.
February 10th, 2009 at 6:14 pm
Supraboy says:
Richmond will survive. It will result in a few bucks going to the white men.
hmmmm…. a little racist are we? Would you like me to call you a yellow man?
February 10th, 2009 at 6:09 pm
circlingthebowl:
So let me understand this. If income has to rise 85% to afford a house, then isn’t it just as likely that prices could fall 85%?
No, RE prices would only need to fall 46% to match an 85% income gain.
I’d put my money on price drops, not income gains. In fact, 46% price drop seems like a conservative estimate!
February 10th, 2009 at 5:32 pm
“The best solution: Boost family income by 85 per cent”
Sounds like the quote’s author doesn’t have any savings. I have savings and would not want this to happen. Of course, if income increased that amount, it would signify significant inflation and the accompanying interest rate hike. Which would increase my savings while putting negative pressure on housing prices due to higher mortgage rates. Buyers can only afford according the mortgage they qualify for.
February 10th, 2009 at 5:31 pm
I also find it unbelievable that the bulls like Supraboy have the audacity to believe Vancouver will be decoupling from the global economy.
That would be quite the feat…and also quite impossible no matter what economic theory you subscribe to….
February 10th, 2009 at 5:27 pm
Supraboy – I think maybe you are not a real person.
If all the rich asians are buying, then ummm, why are they at the same time trying to sell their houses in predominantly asian communities??
Check out the massive number of listings for Westwood Plateau(asian Mcmansions) or Richmond.
My very unscientific study of asking asians I work with what’s up with that, is that they tell me a lot of their community is returning to their homeland. More upside there for them. Heck, I may go with them !
February 10th, 2009 at 5:22 pm
NO -LYMPICS:
So let me understand this. If income has to rise 85% to afford a house, then isn’t it just as likely that prices could fall 85%? After all, which has more elasticity, the ability of an average employer to increase wages 85% or average prices coming down 85%?
February 10th, 2009 at 5:18 pm
UK property sales fall below thirty years ago. Prices continue to fall.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/fin.....years.html
February 10th, 2009 at 5:08 pm
Fixing the Crazy Cost of Housing
http://thetyee.ca/News/2009/02/10/CrazyHousing/
QUOTE:
The best solution: Boost family income by 85 per cent
There are two ways to narrow B.C.’s housing gap: Either raise incomes, or lower the cost of housing.
Social policy experts claim raising incomes is the better option. They note that B.C. households bring home lower median incomes than Canadians as a whole. They warn that as the income-to-housing-cost gap expands, hundreds of thousands of British Columbians fall within a few missed paycheques of becoming homeless.
Economists also believe that raising incomes is the better option. They note that renters who spend 42 per cent of their income on housing are a drag on the economy because they have that much less to spend on cars, clothes, furniture and other goods that stimulate the economy.
“We argue that the ultimate solution to the affordable housing problem is to raise market incomes and develop a more effective and equitable income transfer regime to help lower-income households,” wrote TD Economics chief economist Don Drummond in a 2003 paper on affordable housing.
How much would family incomes have to rise in order for an ordinary family to purchase an ordinary home?
About 85 per cent.
Median family income would have to almost double in order for an ordinary family to afford an ordinary home in Metro Vancouver
==========================
Uh Huh.
I like the bubble burst theory = higher probability reality.
BTW: The TYEE will be running a series on this ” housing affordability ” topic.
February 10th, 2009 at 5:06 pm
Supraboy:
Sooper Dooper Denier, I was at FutureShop and BestBuy Richmond last weekend ( looking for a wii-fit sys) and I could have fired a lucky bronze cannon loaded with kung fu swords down any of the aisles and not hit anyone. Where are all these ‘rich ‘ people you speak of.
February 10th, 2009 at 5:01 pm
What may be getting lost in all the huge unemployment numbers are the ACTUAL TOTAL NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED. We are getting burned out by seeing a thousand jobs here and 20,000 there. People are becoming numb to the truth.
There are now 12 MILLION unemployed in the US.
http://www.moneymorning.com/20.....nt-rate-2/
Although the Canadian Government doesn’t release the numbers you have a trail of breadcrumbs to lead you out of the forest of obfuscation and ignorance promoted by the stooge media.
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/subje.....pa-eng.htm
Denial is rampant. The truth is much worse than your leaders are willing to publish.
February 10th, 2009 at 4:52 pm
BC Teachers Take Pension Hit
Cuts could affect up to 100,000 retired and working, K through college.
http://thetyee.ca/News/2009/02/10/TeacherPensions/
QUOTE:
The ivory tower is no safe haven from the economic downturn, as B.C. teachers and retirees are learning this winter.
Tens of thousands of educators are being told their pensions will no longer grow with the cost of living, and their payouts for medical care will be axed.
For faculty in the B.C. colleges and “teaching universities,” the bad news came last month. The College Pension Plan announced on its website that in September it will stop paying for retirees’ extended health and dental benefits. And as of January 2011, the plan will no longer increase pensions to keep pace with inflation.
============
Another ” economic ” canary in the mine ?
February 10th, 2009 at 4:46 pm
Supraboy:
Richmond? bwahahahahaha
The Rich Asians will get slaughtered…
One poster gave a great link to a hot bed of specuvesting…the Hemlock Road area of Richmond.
The number of listings are unreal for such a relatively small area.
Q: Why aren’t the Rich Asian snapping them up?
A: Because “my huzzba and me buy tooooo frikkin m-a-n-y…” = no more Rich Asians.
The Ex- Rich Asians will be giving them away to the round eyes at Dim Sum…..bwaaaahahahahaha
That’s the way the fortune cookie crumles !
February 10th, 2009 at 4:23 pm
“Allowing the investor immigrant fund to classify Real Estate as an eligible investment for immigrants is exactly the reason RE will tank here”
Sorry to inform you but when there’s more money coming in, it will trickle to more chinese restaurants and stay within the chinese community for a long time. If you don’t have a chinese business, you’re shieet out of luck. The rich asians go for dim sum everyday and spend most of their money in richmond. That means only the lucky few, eg, Costco, Futureshop and Best Buy in Richmond will survive. It will result in a few bucks going to the white men.
February 10th, 2009 at 4:05 pm
Supraboy:
Sorry to pop your bubble.
That was the worst thing the Gov’t ever did.
Allowing the investor immigrant fund to classify Real Estate as an eligible investment for immigrants is exactly the reason RE will tank here.
The investor fund should have excluded RE as an investment. That would have forced REAL jobs to be created… not cyclical ones such as in construction. This would have avoided the bizarre economy of low paying McJobs yet $1 Million McMansions for homes.
If we had supported the middle class with a far more appropriate direction of these immigrant investments, people could have had real jobs , afforded real homes less specuvesting and cushioned the shock…ie a much more stable RE market.
I could see this mess coming years ago…and I am sure that I am not the only one either.
February 10th, 2009 at 3:57 pm
Forget the numbers, look at the verbs:
“In 2010, B.C.’s overall house sales will rebound by a nation-leading 28.4 per cent. Nationally, the association foresees sales growth of 9.9 per cent next year.”
Apparently CREA still uses their crystal ball for national stats but has stated emphatically that BC “WILL” rebound 28.4%.
I gotta get their take on the equity markets as I need them to tell me which stocks to buy.
February 10th, 2009 at 3:52 pm
@crashbug
The subhead in that Province article is ludicrously misleading (even for one of our rags):
B.C. to take another big home-sales hit
Average prices to drop 0.6 per cent to $404,000
In the article it says
2009 -10.6%
2010 -0.6%
possible explanations:
1. They left out a parenthetical (after dropping more than 10% this year)
2. They made a typo and left off the 1 from 10.6 (A Bob Rennie bounce, in football parlance)
3. That browntown goof hacked their website
February 10th, 2009 at 3:50 pm
Watch the markets reload. Rich Chinese are flocking here left right and center. The minimum amount to qualify for a canadian citizenship for a Chinese is $400k of investment. There are more than a billion people in china. Imagine 10% of those people flocking here with 400k each.
February 10th, 2009 at 3:44 pm
“Less housing starts = less inventory = higher prices.”
haha you fail.
February 10th, 2009 at 2:59 pm
Re: Honest reporting
In the previous post someone mentioned the Vancouver Suns David Baines. I had the same name in mind when assessing the media’s integrity. I came across this article
” The Most Hated Man in Business”
http://www.bcbusinessonline.ca/node/342
QUOTE:
The next year brought the longest strike in Pacific Press’s history (11 months) – the event ended PacPress’s unchallenged dominance of West Coast news. After crossing the picket line for four or five months, Baines quit once more, signing on as a commercial account manager at his father’s old haunt, the Bank of Montreal.
There followed some wild and useful years. Working at “an obscure branch at Carrall and Hastings,” Baines “spent the first couple of years shoveling money out the door and the last couple trying to collect it.” Interest rates ran to 20 per cent, the Vancouver housing market collapsed and, suddenly, it became critical to study what Baines calls the four C’s of lending: credit, character, capacity and collateral.
He made some mistakes – mistakes that would later colour his vision and harden his heart against the dream merchants who populated the Vancouver Stock Exchange. In one memorable case, he was working with the young owner of a troubled insurance company. Baines doesn’t say he pushed any banking boundaries but “worked hard” to keep the client aloft. He adds, almost apologetically: “I liked the guy.”
Then, one darkening evening as Baines was leaving the office in his rusted-out Rabbit, he stopped at a red light and noticed the “troubled” borrower sitting next to him in a brand new, bright orange Mercedes convertible. “It was completely incompatible with the austerity that was appropriate,” Baines says, adding, “I knew at that moment that I was going to pull his loan.”
The experience left him with “a deep distrust of hedonism” –another bias that was sure to colour his later reporting.
=============
It’s a very interesting article, he has quite a fascinating background. He most certainly did not have things come easy and learned a lot through trial and error.
Ah..the VSE I wonder where all the “rogues” (politically correct word for scumbags) ended up?
In RE maybe ?
February 10th, 2009 at 2:45 pm
YTWNBoomerang:
hahahahahahaheehhehheheeehhheeehhheeehahahahah
Housing Starts Rebound in January
OTTAWA, February 8, 2008 — The seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of housing starts was 222,700 units in January, up from 184,700 units in December, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).
“Historically low mortgage rates, solid employment and income growth as well as a high level of consumer confidence continue to underpin the high level of housing starts”, said Bob Dugan, Chief Economist at CMHC’s Market Analysis Centre. “Housing starts in January returned to a level more consistent with our expectation that housing starts will total 211,700 units in 2008, remaining above the 200,000 mark for the seventh consecutive year.”
I think this story was filed from a smokey room in Jamaica.
February 10th, 2009 at 2:40 pm
Another day of ludicrous statements by the CREA. In thier statement today , they announce differant numbers than yesterday. Are they making these reports up anew by the minute? Laughably todays statement suggests that prices in BC will continue to deterirate at the same time as improving in 2009. Keeeerist on the cross, what a joke. Theye are just throwing this shit out hoping something will stick. What desperation!!!!
http://www.theprovince.com/Hom.....story.html
Meanwhile BOC Governor Marc Carney has dipped deep into the ’suasion’ file and come out with an equally bizarre statement by reacting to reporters questioning his constantly shifting ( caan I say shifty) statements. He states that ” the BOC deals with reality) . How absurd. Mr. Carney states that by 2009 the Canadian economic GDP will push at 3.8%!!!! What bullshit, 3.8% would represent the best GDP performance this country has produced in the past 2 decades. We weren’t doing 3.8% at the height of the boom.
Doe’s anyone think that the million jobs that have been lost this year are suddenly going to reappear and on top of that another million jobs will be additionally created? Talk about denial.
Garth talked about UNI grads applying for jobs at the fertilizer plant. The fact is that none of those 500 apps will be successful. Companies like Mosaic, Agrium and Potash are laying off thousands of workers dur to the downturn in the fert biz. Even the ethanol and by prod co’s are getting shuttered.
Mr. Carney is obviously ‘jawboning’ the markets as BOC governors are prone to do. They do it when they want to talk the dollar down, they do it when they want to talk the economy up, they do it when in fact they plan to nothing but influence the market with suasion tactics. This bullshit used to work in the decades before electronic trading because it gave the government some time to adjust before the markets reacted. But these days , people just call it bullshit.
February 10th, 2009 at 2:21 pm
That’s right, Supraboy – higher nominal prices… in about 5 years or so. That is what you meant, right?
February 10th, 2009 at 2:11 pm
Less housing starts = less inventory = higher prices.
February 10th, 2009 at 1:22 pm
I went to last years release:
http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/.....8-0815.cfm
Whose tagline was “Housing Starts Rebound in January”
Corporate Information > Newsroom > News Releases > 2008 > Housing Starts Rebound in January
——————————————————————————–
Housing Starts Rebound in January
OTTAWA, February 8, 2008 — The seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of housing starts was 222,700 units in January, up from 184,700 units in December, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).
“Historically low mortgage rates, solid employment and income growth as well as a high level of consumer confidence continue to underpin the high level of housing starts”, said Bob Dugan, Chief Economist at CMHC’s Market Analysis Centre. “Housing starts in January returned to a level more consistent with our expectation that housing starts will total 211,700 units in 2008, remaining above the 200,000 mark for the seventh consecutive year.”
Comparing the actual numbers in the releases for BC Urban:
Jan04: 2,365
Jan05: 1,891
Jan06: 2,238
Jan07: 2,538
Jan08: 2,342
Jan09: 925
Comparing the SAAR numbers in the releases for BC Urban:
Jan04: 29,700
Jan05: 26,000
Jan06: 31,900
Jan07: 35,300
Jan08: 33,600
Jan09: 14,100
Looking at the SAAR factor for each year:
Jan04: 12.6
Jan05: 13.7
Jan06: 14.3
Jan07: 13.9
Jan08: 14.3
Jan09: 15.2
What do I see? The SAAR factor increases each year except 2007 when we actually had really high starts; is CMHC trying to fudge the numbers to look better as seasonality factors really shouldn’t change that much year especially not an increasing trend – oh wait, global warming, ha ha ha
February 10th, 2009 at 1:08 pm
Belt tightening?
So what’s wrong with that?
Are we going to do this across the board? Or pick and choose?
I’d mentioned this before as the economy was unravelling.
The private sector would get hit, and no one in it was immune.
That leaves the public sector.
Q: Who ultimatley pays/funds the public sector?
A: The private sector !
If the public sector maintains delusions of entitlement…
eventually they will kill their own golden goose and they will be getting pink slips as well.
We’re A-L-L in this together folks !
February 10th, 2009 at 12:58 pm
The Conservatives have to tighten belts around the federal workers so they can afford the Home Depot bailout they announced in the budget.
February 10th, 2009 at 12:49 pm
On a side note, the Conservatives have tabled legislation proposing a “belt tightening” for the salaries of all federal workers (this may include the RCMP I’m not sure).
On first blush this seems like a fine idea given the economic crisis. But some of these employees agreed to an arbitration process years ago. Now, whatever an arbitration panel decides will be ignored. Instead, salaries will be set by legislation.
Seems undemocratic to me..
Am I the only one who sees that employees of all types will probably avoid arbitration in the future?
Instead, Canada will now see a lot more worker’s on strike trying to get employers to agree to wages and benefits. After all, why agree to arbitration if it can be ignored?
We are going to become like the French where it seems there is a strike every other week..
February 10th, 2009 at 12:25 pm
I find these “Housing Starts” numbers confusing:
BC is only down 29.1 %
What are the reference points?
Was a start not tabulated when the foundation was started ?
I don’t see much evidence of new starts…mostly projects far past that point and on their way to completion soon.
In Richmond…a couple of very small multi – family developments are now proceeding, but that’s about it.
In Vancouver, I see the odd SFH being built…but nothing to any major degree.