On-topic Tuesday: logic, perception, moderation
We’re going to try something new for this post; an antidote to the anarchy in the Friday Free-for-all thread. This is a round up of a few of the higher rated comments from the Friday free-for-all post, but this thread will be moderated. Off topic comments, trolls , insults and pissing contests will be removed from this thread. If you want freedom of speech, the previous open topic thread is still open and you can post there. Ok? Here goes:
Comment by Declan regarding this article in the Tyee. Currently rated +54
That really was a bizarre article on the Tyee. People have said some strange things about Vancouver real estate over the last few years, but saying that supply and demand doesn’t apply to this market really takes the cake.
Comment by Vansanity regarding this article in the Sun. Currently rated +48
I don’t think I will ever grasp the defensiveness that some people exhibit against the idea of lower home prices. Reading that Sun article and then reading the comments beneath it… you’d think real estate was a religion and the real estate bulls were religious fanatics. At least the equivalent of it. It’s truly disturbing to me.
Comment by Fools Uncle on Craigslist presales listings. Currently rated +24
My nephew got caught up in a pre sale hype and purchased a condo in October 2007, it will complete in late 2009.There is still a sale’s centre and amazingly more than a few sales lately, proving Barnum’s fool theory. What I find ironic is that when he post’s an ad on Craigslist , offering his 15% deposit in an attempt to assign, it is flagged as inappropriate and removed. He does not mention the project or the developer, but obviously the real estate board or developers monitor these sites and flag anything competing with their product for removal. How low can they get in their desperation?
Please keep your comments focused on these topics for this thread.
RSS 2.0 comments feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
February 19th, 2009 at 7:57 pm
Big Mac marketing ethics. I notice that ads on the bargain basement condo liquidation sale on 980. They say selling” way below market price” for these units. I don’t think this is true. They are probably selling the units at market. Nothing is selling right now so prices are way way down. I would like to see some comparables units in the area in which they are selling to see if it is below market prices.
Case of misleading advertising!! and again buyer beware.
February 18th, 2009 at 4:16 pm
i know of one currency trader in Surrey who put a deposit on 15 pre construction apartments in surrey.
I have just heard he is in surrey memorial hospital in acritical condition ,stroke i believe …
February 18th, 2009 at 2:09 pm
Patriotz:
Re cars.
Your argument may hold up if the blinkers are focussed on cars per household URBAN vs SUBURBAN pro-rata type of arguments only . A SFH in the suburbs could easily have 3-4 autos, whereas a condo may have an allotment of 2 max.
However…on say an acre of land in the City Core, one could build a hi- rise with several hundred condo unit and an parking allotment of say (1) car per unit. Do the math on the potential impact of vehicles.
Conclusion:
Densification attracts far more cars…it goes hand -in- hand.
February 18th, 2009 at 2:08 pm
Real Retard Paul:
Boo hoo wahhwahhh , mommy look at me mommy, I must have something say. Whats that mommy, I’m an idiot with nothing interseting to say Wahhhhhhhhhh
you haven’t got a clue. you’re so deperate for attention that you’re fixated on an issue that nobody here cares about.
OK quick set your hair on fire and say something stupid, make us all laugh.
February 18th, 2009 at 12:35 pm
Ignorance of the market dynamic by a bored and stupid 13 year old geek is revealed in little time.
GM last at $ 2.04, down from 3.50 a few days ago when the Dow was 350 points higher. Citibank plumbing new all time lows.
More horrid economic numbers as US production was off 10% year over year.
February 18th, 2009 at 12:26 pm
NO -LYMPICS:
Re: my post # 65
Anonymous has an open mind and gets it.
Patriotz doesn’t…(take the blinkers- off SVP)
Just what don’t I “get”?
Having an open mind does not mean willingness to believe a contention which is patently false. A common strategy of the neocon movement, of which Jonas has of course been a propagandist for decades, is to accuse someone who is unwilling to believe complete nonsense as being “closed minded”. Which reached its apogee during the reign of that great spewer of nonsense, George W. Bush.
The plain fact is that densely populated urban areas have lower rates of car ownership than suburbs or small towns.
Which is directly at odds with Jonas’ claim that “the more you crowd and densify area, more cars will be the result”.
Everyone get that?
February 18th, 2009 at 12:14 pm
Calgary realtors seeking new jobs as business dries up
http://www.vancouversun.com/Ho.....id=1299689
February 18th, 2009 at 12:01 pm
Tiny almost hidden tidbit in today’s Vancouver Province (PG. A 32)
CONVENTION POSTPONED
The Council of Forest Industries has postponed its Vancouver convention , originally scheduled for April 1 to 3 .
=======
Are the floodgates about to open ?
February 18th, 2009 at 11:57 am
Re: my post # 65
Anonymous has an open mind and gets it.
Patriotz doesn’t…(take the blinkers- off SVP)
Autos also provide S-T-R-E-S-S ReL i e F
Our own experience is , on average transit takes twice as long to to get from A to B most often 3 X’s . It ain’t exactly cheap either and life’ too short.
Secondly, in some ways, it was good those condos were specuvested and sit empty..otherwise they would be occupied and thousands of more cars on the road, given the shitty transit and limited capacity .
February 18th, 2009 at 11:45 am
Skye, further to your query “who’s losing thier jobs in Metro Vanc”
UPDATE 2-Transcontinental cuts 1,500 jobs to reduce costs
Transcon has a big plant in Delta for printing circulars and locally distributed magazines.
I’m sure if you start looking into all the similar and related businesses in this industry you’ll find many new redundancies. How about all the support services like courier, drivers, chemicals, raw materials transpo mechanics , parts suppliers etc etc. Theres also the spin off from kids not going to dance classes , karate classes missed etc etc, mom not shopping, house not getting painted, cars not getting bought ,all down the line.
February 18th, 2009 at 11:11 am
Great quote from
“REMEMBER TO BE HUMAN” Garths blog today. HIS IS A LIFE LIVED IN REAL TIME.
One conversation I struck up was with two guys in the HR office of a major international manufacturing conglomerate with 36,000 employees. A third of those fabricate auto parts, with plants across North America.
“Well, we got the letter just last week from the big guy,” one of them commented as he fingered his boarding pass. “Be respectful, it said, and remember to be human, because what’s coming will not be easy to do.”
The job terminations, he said, will probably be in the thousands. “And it will be a tragedy. I hardly want to go back.
It’s an old saying that goes.
“It’s a downturn when you read about job loss, a recession when your neighbour loses his job, a depression when you lose yours”.
“Before the end many more thousands will go home to weep.” Thats great writng Garth.
February 18th, 2009 at 11:00 am
House prices in the US will fall at least as far as rent equivalence regardless of what the government does. I don’t think anyone in the Obama administration thinks the bubble can be re-inflated, even if they wanted to do it, which I doubt. Every economic fundamental is aligned massively against that happening.
IMHO the administration is simply trying to prevent house prices from sinking below rent equivalence as was the case during the Great Depression. They may well be able to pull this off in all but the most overbuilt markets as it’s pretty much just a matter of making credit available.
February 18th, 2009 at 10:58 am
harsh but true:
Will it be a ‘first in first out’ scenario as you see it then? Where are we now along that time line? Are prices now back to 2005 or 2003? I’m just positing the question. There is obviously a cut off line somewhere wherein everyone who bought after a ‘certain time and at a ‘certain price’ has to be now deeply underwater. My suggestion is that this cohort forms the bulk of the ‘problem properties which have lost the most and are more likely to be sold at at loss’and that this group of properties is where the bulk of inventory movement over the past 5 years has been.
So, what is the line? I see that generally we have gone back to around 2004 and we are rapidly moving down towards 2003. If the current price chart ( which is useless because it’s 3 months behind) is any indication were a chart of the stock market ( which it’s not) IT WOULD SHOW THAT SOME LINES OF TECHNICAL SUPPORT IN THE 2001-2002 PRICE LEVEL. But that is the idle speculation of a person who likes to play with numbers. I reiterate that the stock market has only a distant corelation to real estate in that people who lose money in the stock market generally are not buying homes and so there is that distant relationship and it will show up on comparison stats. I’m not suggesting we tear apart the functions of all markets and set our hair on fire. I am suggesting that while all markets are down thatthis will over the longer term affect peoples real estate buying decisions and this will cause a hollowing out of the buyer pool. Obviously not everyone is directly affected by the goings on of every single market. Plenty of gainfully employed teachers who have great pensions and never invest a dime in the stock market so it being down doesn’t catch thier interest.
I just want to see if anyone is looking for a rational approach as to where we may end up and where. The price chart of the 80′s boom-bust had a definate ebb and flow pattern which moved the peak back down to a line on the chart which showed that the bubble had been totally deflated by the end of the recession. Where will that put Vanc prices if we should relive that same scenario?
Of course the real estate market is nothing like the equity market but the current recession is worse in scope than any we have see in 80 years.
Meanwhile another group of tens of thousands of layoffs have been announced again today, so sad for those affected.
Interestingly, shipping of goods is deteriorating which indicates no new growth is anticapted by manufactureres or retailers etc. Of course the numbers aren’t published for Canada so we need to adjust for pop and GDP comps
Longbeach Calif, yesterday reported at 23.4% drop in January containers shipped in
Port of Seattle and Tacoma show similar drops. This will invaribly means fewer goods coming in and higher prices ahead.
http://www.portseattle.org/dow.....t/mcps.pdf
February 18th, 2009 at 10:52 am
The valid part of Jonas’ argument is that you need a car to get out of the city and experience nature in any meaningful sense. Of course, you can rent cars (that’s what I do!)
February 18th, 2009 at 10:30 am
The US has unveilled their plan to aid ailing homeowners:
http://money.cnn.com/2009/02/1.....2009021809
$75 billion spread amongst 9 million homeowners that need help is equal to $8,333.33 per household. Will it help? Sure, slightly. Will it solve the problem? What problem? It’s the market in action.
Two things stand out when I read that: 1) the number of sheeple 9M; 2) The $8k number. That’s anywhere from 1-6 months salary. I think it buys them some time but… reinflate the bubble? Not even close.
February 18th, 2009 at 10:27 am
NO -LYMPICS:
Jonas’s contention was the more you crowd and densify area, more cars will be the result as people feel the need to escape and enjoy some short lived freedom and independence.
That’s ridiculous. What’s the per capita car ownership in Manhatten versus Long Island or New Jersey? San Francisco versus San Jose? Or closer to home, in the CoV versus the outer suburbs, or the City of Toronto versus 905?
The guy can’t even be bothered to check out his theory against reality.
The plain fact of course, is that lower density areas have higher rates of car ownership because people have a greater need to drive to get to everyday activities like work or shopping.
February 18th, 2009 at 10:11 am
Re: Cars etc.
George Jonas once wrote an interesting column on this very topic .
When all the “go green” crowd was ranting about the evils of the auto, and concurrently lobbying for more public transit, Jonas rebutted this with a view the automobile was one of the last expressions of individual freedom. One of many reasons for the automobiles popularity was a means for one to escape one’s current urban environment and seek a new one, even for a short time, at minimum to keep one’s sanity.
With increasing density, people are effectively crowded like sardines , feel claustrophobic , and the need to get away.
Public Transit is simply a mobile version of hi – density development , a mobile sardine can.
The current planning models are to build hi -density along public transit, yet at the same time claim we are a “world class city ” with lots of natural wonders like oceans and mountains etc. Jonas’s contention was the more you crowd and densify area, more cars will be the result as people feel the need to escape and enjoy some short lived freedom and independence . It will get worse here in BC and our planning models have always been a joke…..except more recently the Local Gov’ts have blatantly tipped their hand as dupes, stooges and puppets of developers .
Local Gov’ts and developers know they have to allocate at least one parking space for any potential purchaser of a high -density RE unit , or the sales would plummet .
So, when you see all that traffic, there are many many things to be read into it.
February 18th, 2009 at 9:54 am
scullboy – this is a bit off topic and not meant in jest – what culinary schools in Vancouver are worth applying too?
February 18th, 2009 at 9:35 am
Interesting re: TELUS:
A company REP called us about some package they were offering. We thought they were upselling.
No , in fact the Telus Rep said that under our current package, we could get an added feature thrown in with NO extra cost.
Our conclusion was they must be getting a bit concerned re: losing business if they are offering “freebies”.
February 18th, 2009 at 9:05 am
Truth #54:
Agreed about what’s happening at the telcos. Telus in particular is letting go of all the contractors they can cut, as soon as they can cut them. For them it’s perfect, they don’t have to report any job loss numbers because contractors aren’t technically employees, they avoid negative press and they save tons of money by farming the contract work out to India.
This is what has people like Supra completely fooled. The day after massive layoffs, the sum comes up, same as always. Cars are on the road (with people looking for work rather then boosting productivity), same as always. Cafes and restaurants are full (of job seekers, not workers) same as always. So they say :
“Economic meltdown? But there are still cars on the road and everyone’s packed in the dim sum restaurants, same as always!”
I am soooooo glad I don’t own a place in BC. In four months I’ll complete my education in one of the finest culinary schools in the world (seriously, Vancouver does have that going for it) and I’ll be able to go ANYWHERE. If the whole world’s going through a meltdown, you might as well end up in Tuscany or the Mediterranean learning how to cook……
February 18th, 2009 at 8:53 am
harsh but true:
I truly feel sorry for the buyers who just wanted to buy a home as a place to live.
The market price of a property is just someone else’s opinion of what your property is worth. If someone thought the purchase price of a property was worth it at the time they bought it, why should future changes in the market price matter?
If people just bought a property as a place to live, they would be making the same payments whether the market price went up, stayed flat, or went down. They still have exactly the same property they paid for.
So just what is there to feel sorry for them about?
February 18th, 2009 at 8:09 am
I agree that the real human tragedy is still to come.
Many of the people selling today “at a discount to market” have owned for a number of years and are only discounting their paper profit in order to crystallize a cash profit. These people have not lost anything, rather, they have gained from the inflated market and their only “loss” is the opportunity cost of not selling at the peak last year.
The real painful losses will come when the majority of the newer owners, i.e. “the last ones in”, start to panic when they see the “correction” is not correcting.
I truly feel sorry for the buyers who just wanted to buy a home as a place to live. Regrettably, the reality is that not many buyers that fit that description. Most were under the mistaken expectation that they were “guaranteed” capital appreciation on their home. People who bought homes thinking they would make money on the capital appreciation deserve no more sympathy than those who lost money in the stock market. They are both just investments that didn’t work out the way one hoped.
February 18th, 2009 at 8:05 am
Patriotz:
It is agreed that people have to accept personal responsibility.
It is also clear that many have expertise in certain fields, but are sufficiently lacking in others.
However, after the economy gets its major shakedown, what will rise out of the ashes is the Phoenix of regulation. Regulation was in place, and much of it created to address historical lessons that WERE learned.
If one does a bit of research, key bits of safeguard legislation were lobbied by key players for either amendment or outright removal. Once they were gone, the fuse was lit.
It is overwhelming for people to be up on everything..and regulations bridge that gap to create more of a level playing field. DE-regulation simply widened that gap and tilted the field
February 18th, 2009 at 12:31 am
Garth:
On this board we are very often critical of people who fall for the real estate hype. But you have to realize that these people don’t hang out on real estate discussion boards.
BFD. They live on Planet Earth, don’t they? Every one of them was around for – or knows someone who was around for – the great 1980′s RE bust and recession, and the dot-com bubble and bust. And every one of them has been bombarded with horror stories on TV about the US RE meltdown for the last two years.
If that isn’t enough to clue people in, just what is? Those who are not prepared to deal with reality are going to have reality deal with them.
February 17th, 2009 at 10:55 pm
truthin’advertising:
And PS Skye, I knew all 200 of the high end engineers that were laid off at Nokia, so these aren’t just ‘somebody else’s second hand story, these are real people.
If I know this about the situation , and I’m only one guy, think of how many stories you could unearth if you got a few people in a room just to talk about this subject.
The fact is , the media is not reporting on this story. Why? Well thats another story.
February 17th, 2009 at 10:51 pm
Skye:
#61 Skye I should add that it hasn’t just been the tech, industrial and construction jobs that are being lost in Vanc big time I know many actors and others in the film, art and support industry ( writers , editors , actors , set people , musicians etc etc including all kinds of other artists who haven’t worked for a year or more.
I have two friends who have won every kind of award the Canadian arts industry can give and they still haven’t worked in a year. Some are picking up bits and pieces but overall people in the arts are getting killed
For ex:
Dancers devastated by Ballet BC layoffs
Drop in ticket sales in tough economic times costs 38 people their jobs
Kevin Griffin, Vancouver Sun
Published: Wednesday, November 26, 2008
VANCOUVER – Ballet B.C. has laid off all its dancers, most of its administrative staff and artistic director John Alleyne because of dropping ticket sales in tough economic times
February 17th, 2009 at 10:40 pm
Skye:
#61 Skye, heres one example of Vanc tech layoffs just at one company, think about all the contractors and support services that went along with these jobs
Downsizing in Vancouver’s video-game industry has been rampant of late with Electronic Arts, Propaganda Games, and Nexon Publishing leading the way. To date an estimated 800 people have lost their jobs in the gaming sector as a result of the downturn. Kenton Low, president of New Media BC, told Kyllo that he is concerned about BC is losing its competitive edge in the gaming space.
Read more: “Technology news in Vancouver – Layoffs – Techvibes Blog” – http://www.techvibes.com/blog/.....z07RanTAeO
February 17th, 2009 at 10:33 pm
Skye:
I personally know of many hundreds through my close contacts with the tech industry ( engineering, games dev and publishing, marketing, admin, etc etc) all IN Vancouver. I know of several hundreds of others at Telus, Rogers and contractors. I see a huge number of construction projects on hold or in limbo, thats carpets not being laid, doors , windows, cabinets, studs not delivered, framers, tapers, boarders etc not being manufactured, transported or installed or sold or orders taken or accounted for.
Take a long thought about how many people are out of work just in the past ninety days in Metro Vanc. I could be here all night.
Patiently waiting is on track, I think it’s far more than 68K.
February 17th, 2009 at 9:55 pm
Skye,
BC lost 68,000 full-time jobs in January alone.
So its safe to say Vancouver has lost many tens of thousands of jobs in the last few months. The carnage is real. I know of it first hand.
Not all employment loss is reported in the stats. People with contracts suddenly lose half or all their income. Small businesses go under.
Its brutal out there.
February 17th, 2009 at 9:39 pm
truthin’advertising: “The Canadian tech, mining, forestry, construction, financial, retail sectors ( to name but a few) are all individually , continuously announcing substantial job losses in trade and industry press releases and publication circulars. Personally bankruptcy stats are skyrocketing.”
True, but how many of these job losses are in Metro Vancouver? Are there any numbers? Like someone else said, since we don’t have any major headquarters in Vancouver, it’s going to be “death by a million paper cuts”, a few here, a few there.
February 17th, 2009 at 9:30 pm
not sure if anyone is interested in the City of Vancouver’s budget consultation meeting tomorrow at the SFU Wosk Centre for Dialogue, but it will be webcasted live from 6:30pm-9:30pm here:
http://www.lidc.sfu.ca/broadcast/186
might be an interesting (gong)show…
February 17th, 2009 at 8:12 pm
COV Olympic Village
Social Housing cost rise
City Staff Report
http://vancouver.ca/ctyclerk/c.....ts/a10.pdf
Millenium gets a fee of approx $8 million
Other interesting details included.