On-topic Tuesday: logic, perception, moderation

We’re going to try something new for this post; an antidote to the anarchy in the Friday Free-for-all thread.  This is a round up of a few of the higher rated comments from the Friday free-for-all post, but this thread will be moderated.  Off topic comments, trolls , insults and pissing contests will be removed from this thread.  If you want freedom of speech, the previous open topic thread is still open and you can post there.   Ok?  Here goes:

Comment by Declan regarding this article in the Tyee.  Currently rated +54

That really was a bizarre article on the Tyee. People have said some strange things about Vancouver real estate over the last few years, but saying that supply and demand doesn’t apply to this market really takes the cake.

Comment by Vansanity regarding this article in the Sun. Currently rated +48

I don’t think I will ever grasp the defensiveness that some people exhibit against the idea of lower home prices. Reading that Sun article and then reading the comments beneath it… you’d think real estate was a religion and the real estate bulls were religious fanatics. At least the equivalent of it. It’s truly disturbing to me.

Comment by Fools Uncle on Craigslist presales listings.  Currently rated +24

My nephew got caught up in a pre sale hype and purchased a condo in October 2007, it will complete in late 2009.There is still a sale’s centre and amazingly more than a few sales lately, proving Barnum’s fool theory. What I find ironic is that when he post’s an ad on Craigslist , offering his 15% deposit in an attempt to assign, it is flagged as inappropriate and removed. He does not mention the project or the developer, but obviously the real estate board or developers monitor these sites and flag anything competing with their product for removal. How low can they get in their desperation?

Please keep your comments focused on these topics for this thread.

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Phil

Big Mac marketing ethics. I notice that ads on the bargain basement condo liquidation sale on 980. They say selling" way below market price" for these units. I don't think this is true. They are probably selling the units at market. Nothing is selling right now so prices are way way down. I would like to see some comparables units in the area in which they are selling to see if it is below market prices.

Case of misleading advertising!! and again buyer beware.

JACK

i know of one currency trader in Surrey who put a deposit on 15 pre construction apartments in surrey.

I have just heard he is in surrey memorial hospital in acritical condition ,stroke i believe …

NO -LYMPICS

Patriotz:

Re cars.

Your argument may hold up if the blinkers are focussed on cars per household URBAN vs SUBURBAN pro-rata type of arguments only . A SFH in the suburbs could easily have 3-4 autos, whereas a condo may have an allotment of 2 max.

However…on say an acre of land in the City Core, one could build a hi- rise with several hundred condo unit and an parking allotment of say (1) car per unit. Do the math on the potential impact of vehicles.

Conclusion:

Densification attracts far more cars…it goes hand -in- hand.

Real Retard Paul Say

Real Retard Paul:

Boo hoo wahhwahhh , mommy look at me mommy, I must have something say. Whats that mommy, I'm an idiot with nothing interseting to say Wahhhhhhhhhh

you haven't got a clue. you're so deperate for attention that you're fixated on an issue that nobody here cares about.

OK quick set your hair on fire and say something stupid, make us all laugh.

Real Retard Paul

Ignorance of the market dynamic by a bored and stupid 13 year old geek is revealed in little time.

GM last at $ 2.04, down from 3.50 a few days ago when the Dow was 350 points higher. Citibank plumbing new all time lows.

More horrid economic numbers as US production was off 10% year over year.

patriotz

NO -LYMPICS:

Re: my post # 65

Anonymous has an open mind and gets it.

Patriotz doesn’t…(take the blinkers- off SVP)

Just what don't I "get"?

Having an open mind does not mean willingness to believe a contention which is patently false. A common strategy of the neocon movement, of which Jonas has of course been a propagandist for decades, is to accuse someone who is unwilling to believe complete nonsense as being "closed minded". Which reached its apogee during the reign of that great spewer of nonsense, George W. Bush.

The plain fact is that densely populated urban areas have lower rates of car ownership than suburbs or small towns.

Which is directly at odds with Jonas' claim that "the more you crowd and densify area, more cars will be the result".

Everyone get that?

Anonymous

Calgary realtors seeking new jobs as business dries up

http://www.vancouversun.com/Homes/story.html?id=1

NO -LYMPICS

Tiny almost hidden tidbit in today's Vancouver Province (PG. A 32)

CONVENTION POSTPONED

The Council of Forest Industries has postponed its Vancouver convention , originally scheduled for April 1 to 3 .

=======

Are the floodgates about to open ?

NO -LYMPICS

Re: my post # 65

Anonymous has an open mind and gets it.

Patriotz doesn't…(take the blinkers- off SVP)

Autos also provide S-T-R-E-S-S ReL i e F

Our own experience is , on average transit takes twice as long to to get from A to B most often 3 X's . It ain't exactly cheap either and life' too short.

Secondly, in some ways, it was good those condos were specuvested and sit empty..otherwise they would be occupied and thousands of more cars on the road, given the shitty transit and limited capacity .

truthin'adverti

Skye, further to your query "who's losing thier jobs in Metro Vanc"

UPDATE 2-Transcontinental cuts 1,500 jobs to reduce costs

Transcon has a big plant in Delta for printing circulars and locally distributed magazines.

I'm sure if you start looking into all the similar and related businesses in this industry you'll find many new redundancies. How about all the support services like courier, drivers, chemicals, raw materials transpo mechanics , parts suppliers etc etc. Theres also the spin off from kids not going to dance classes , karate classes missed etc etc, mom not shopping, house not getting painted, cars not getting bought ,all down the line.

realpaul

Great quote from "REMEMBER TO BE HUMAN" Garths blog today. HIS IS A LIFE LIVED IN REAL TIME. One conversation I struck up was with two guys in the HR office of a major international manufacturing conglomerate with 36,000 employees. A third of those fabricate auto parts, with plants across North America. “Well, we got the letter just last week from the big guy,” one of them commented as he fingered his boarding pass. “Be respectful, it said, and remember to be human, because what’s coming will not be easy to do.” The job terminations, he said, will probably be in the thousands. “And it will be a tragedy. I hardly want to go back. It's an old saying that goes. "It's a downturn when you read about job loss, a recession when your neighbour loses his job, a depression… Read more »

patriotz

House prices in the US will fall at least as far as rent equivalence regardless of what the government does. I don't think anyone in the Obama administration thinks the bubble can be re-inflated, even if they wanted to do it, which I doubt. Every economic fundamental is aligned massively against that happening.

IMHO the administration is simply trying to prevent house prices from sinking below rent equivalence as was the case during the Great Depression. They may well be able to pull this off in all but the most overbuilt markets as it's pretty much just a matter of making credit available.

realpaul

harsh but true: Will it be a 'first in first out' scenario as you see it then? Where are we now along that time line? Are prices now back to 2005 or 2003? I'm just positing the question. There is obviously a cut off line somewhere wherein everyone who bought after a 'certain time and at a 'certain price' has to be now deeply underwater. My suggestion is that this cohort forms the bulk of the 'problem properties which have lost the most and are more likely to be sold at at loss'and that this group of properties is where the bulk of inventory movement over the past 5 years has been. So, what is the line? I see that generally we have gone back to around 2004 and we are rapidly moving down towards 2003. If the current price… Read more »

Anonymous

The valid part of Jonas' argument is that you need a car to get out of the city and experience nature in any meaningful sense. Of course, you can rent cars (that's what I do!)

Vansanity

The US has unveilled their plan to aid ailing homeowners:

http://money.cnn.com/2009/02/18/news/economy/obam

$75 billion spread amongst 9 million homeowners that need help is equal to $8,333.33 per household. Will it help? Sure, slightly. Will it solve the problem? What problem? It's the market in action.

Two things stand out when I read that: 1) the number of sheeple 9M; 2) The $8k number. That's anywhere from 1-6 months salary. I think it buys them some time but… reinflate the bubble? Not even close.

patriotz

NO -LYMPICS:

Jonas’s contention was the more you crowd and densify area, more cars will be the result as people feel the need to escape and enjoy some short lived freedom and independence.

That's ridiculous. What's the per capita car ownership in Manhatten versus Long Island or New Jersey? San Francisco versus San Jose? Or closer to home, in the CoV versus the outer suburbs, or the City of Toronto versus 905?

The guy can't even be bothered to check out his theory against reality.

The plain fact of course, is that lower density areas have higher rates of car ownership because people have a greater need to drive to get to everyday activities like work or shopping.

NO -LYMPICS

Re: Cars etc. George Jonas once wrote an interesting column on this very topic . When all the "go green" crowd was ranting about the evils of the auto, and concurrently lobbying for more public transit, Jonas rebutted this with a view the automobile was one of the last expressions of individual freedom. One of many reasons for the automobiles popularity was a means for one to escape one's current urban environment and seek a new one, even for a short time, at minimum to keep one's sanity. With increasing density, people are effectively crowded like sardines , feel claustrophobic , and the need to get away. Public Transit is simply a mobile version of hi – density development , a mobile sardine can. The current planning models are to build hi -density along public transit, yet at the same… Read more »

Human778

scullboy – this is a bit off topic and not meant in jest – what culinary schools in Vancouver are worth applying too?

NO -LYMPICS

Interesting re: TELUS:

A company REP called us about some package they were offering. We thought they were upselling.

No , in fact the Telus Rep said that under our current package, we could get an added feature thrown in with NO extra cost.

Our conclusion was they must be getting a bit concerned re: losing business if they are offering "freebies".

scullboy

Truth #54: Agreed about what's happening at the telcos. Telus in particular is letting go of all the contractors they can cut, as soon as they can cut them. For them it's perfect, they don't have to report any job loss numbers because contractors aren't technically employees, they avoid negative press and they save tons of money by farming the contract work out to India. This is what has people like Supra completely fooled. The day after massive layoffs, the sum comes up, same as always. Cars are on the road (with people looking for work rather then boosting productivity), same as always. Cafes and restaurants are full (of job seekers, not workers) same as always. So they say : "Economic meltdown? But there are still cars on the road and everyone's packed in the dim sum restaurants, same as… Read more »

patriotz

harsh but true:

I truly feel sorry for the buyers who just wanted to buy a home as a place to live.

The market price of a property is just someone else's opinion of what your property is worth. If someone thought the purchase price of a property was worth it at the time they bought it, why should future changes in the market price matter?

If people just bought a property as a place to live, they would be making the same payments whether the market price went up, stayed flat, or went down. They still have exactly the same property they paid for.

So just what is there to feel sorry for them about?

harsh but true

I agree that the real human tragedy is still to come. Many of the people selling today "at a discount to market" have owned for a number of years and are only discounting their paper profit in order to crystallize a cash profit. These people have not lost anything, rather, they have gained from the inflated market and their only "loss" is the opportunity cost of not selling at the peak last year. The real painful losses will come when the majority of the newer owners, i.e. "the last ones in", start to panic when they see the "correction" is not correcting. I truly feel sorry for the buyers who just wanted to buy a home as a place to live. Regrettably, the reality is that not many buyers that fit that description. Most were under the mistaken expectation that… Read more »

NO -LYMPICS

Patriotz:

It is agreed that people have to accept personal responsibility.

It is also clear that many have expertise in certain fields, but are sufficiently lacking in others.

However, after the economy gets its major shakedown, what will rise out of the ashes is the Phoenix of regulation. Regulation was in place, and much of it created to address historical lessons that WERE learned.

If one does a bit of research, key bits of safeguard legislation were lobbied by key players for either amendment or outright removal. Once they were gone, the fuse was lit.

It is overwhelming for people to be up on everything..and regulations bridge that gap to create more of a level playing field. DE-regulation simply widened that gap and tilted the field

patriotz

Garth:

On this board we are very often critical of people who fall for the real estate hype. But you have to realize that these people don’t hang out on real estate discussion boards.

BFD. They live on Planet Earth, don't they? Every one of them was around for – or knows someone who was around for – the great 1980's RE bust and recession, and the dot-com bubble and bust. And every one of them has been bombarded with horror stories on TV about the US RE meltdown for the last two years.

If that isn't enough to clue people in, just what is? Those who are not prepared to deal with reality are going to have reality deal with them.

truthin'adverti

truthin’advertising:

And PS Skye, I knew all 200 of the high end engineers that were laid off at Nokia, so these aren't just 'somebody else's second hand story, these are real people.

If I know this about the situation , and I'm only one guy, think of how many stories you could unearth if you got a few people in a room just to talk about this subject.

The fact is , the media is not reporting on this story. Why? Well thats another story.