C’mon over here and let me introduce you to my little friends, the Shun sisters. No matter how bad things get, people will always pay for a cook. That alone will see me through this economic situation. We’ll see how many IT people, marketers, real estate gurus and overextended landlords will be able to say the same thing.

Sucker.

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market value is way way down from here. C’mon… a 2 bedrm concrete coffin for 1/2 mill in Coquitlam Bwahahahahahahahahahahahahah x 2. You’d really have to be stupid x 10

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Hey Islander, do you ever use the preview button to look at your post before you submit it?

“Perma” stands for permanent which means “all the time”. Not “right now”. For everyone. Bulls and bears.

I couldn’t make stuff like that up.

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I’m proving Dave’s point: “What is the purpose of correcting nominal dollars from the perspective of an individual homeowner?” He said: “Who cares?”

First off, apologies if this was covered in a previous post. A couple of hours off this blog and I am so far behind.

My answer to your post above is that the utility of converting to real dollars is to allow comparisons of values and profits made at different points in time in terms of purchasing power. For instance, you might like to know if the $1 profit you made in 1900 was good compared to the $1 profit you made yesterday. Or if you sold now versus in five years, you might like to know how much value the transaction produces in terms of purchasing power. That’s all.

I’ll have to read over the voluminous shell fire which went on … but on another note, anyone notice the mom from teranet from dec-jan declined as opposed to increased every so slightly using mls benchmark (overall it seems the two are within range of each other though).

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“A few blocks away, the condos are so thick they blot out the sun. But looking up into the maze there are scores of units staring blankly back without curtains or occupants. Everyone here is so aware of the collapse of the giant $500-million Ritz project, and now the desperation sales of unsold units in half-built buildings.

Turned out the floor manager in the hotel I spoke at was a Toronto refugee, here for more than a decade. The recession, he confides, is a monster. Hotel business has plunged all across the city. The complex across the road, in the heart of Van’s most fashionable shopping district – Louis Vitton, Hermes — has found it necessary to close off an entire tower as occupancy rates crash.

The group I spoke to was uniformly professional, serious money managers, investment bankers, specialty corporate lawyers and accountants, the kind of folks who regularly flit around the continent on business. The conversations inevitably turned to real estate, as they all do in the Lower Mainland. I don’t think anyone liked the words coming from my lips. The declines here, I said, have just begun. And don’t even think about the aftermath of the 2010 games…”

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Banks are far more interested in reinflating the price of $500,000 homes now fallen to $300,000 than taking care of urban blight. However, reinflating home prices cannot work because home prices needs to fall to levels that are affordable.

Homes in Flint and other such areas, have indeed fallen to their true value (less than zero). No one wants them at any price. Moreover there’s little incentive for anyone to do anything about this. Thus the discussion involves “shutting down portions of Flint, officially abandoning them and cutting off police and fire service.”

Our throw-away society has effectively reached a new level of efficiency: the throw-away city.

Did you just think ‘Whalley’ ? , so did I.

http://globaleconomicanalysis......ities.html

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“Economic dirty bomb goes off in New York
By Tom Engelhardt

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/G.....6Dj01.html

Theres a new catch phrase created here for BC – Before the Collapse. We’ll see it soon enough.

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This will affect the workers ability to make mortgage paymnets and all other debt issues, not to mention food on the table.

At the same time it is estimated that a majority of forestry workers currently laid off are running out of EI benefits. There is nothing but forced sales and then welfare ahead for many as there has been no announcement from any level of government to provide further assistance.

I guess it’s too early to tell these guys and girls that condo’s are cheap and intrest rates are at record lows? If another 10,000 forestry wworkers go down how many more peripheral buisnesses and ancilliary jobs dissapear with them?

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If anything a modern depression will look like Japan in the 90s.

Well, Paul Krugman and I think you might be right.

Given what happened to the Japanese Real Estate market in the ’90s, I’m surprised to see you acknowledge that. But you are a wriggly fish, and love to flip and love to flop, don’t you?

(You don’t mind if I snap at you twice, right )

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That’s not entirely true. There are some specific similarities. For example, bankers hadn’t made this much in earning (since 1929), and that has to do with the amount of risk they were allowed to take on. Loose credit allowed for massive Real Estate bubbles across the US, including Florida in the 20s. We’ve got the return of Hoovervilles, now called shantytowns sprining up (see front cover of new York Times). And then there is this, from NPR:

Alex Blumberg: I talked to a guy who has something to say to people who want to pin this whole thing on banks. I talked to David Beim at Columbia Business School. He’s in his office showing me a graph showing how much debt we the citizens of America are in — how much we all owe on our mortgages and credit cards compared to the economy as a whole, the GDP. For most of American history it was below 50%. And then…

David Beim: I’m glad you asked me that. And guess what! The earlier peak way off on the left part of the chart is 100% of GDP in 1929. This is a map of twin peaks. One in 1929. One in 2007.

http://www.democraticundergrou.....id=5161059

Our government debt in Canada is better, but the savings rate in BC is -8%, and our economy won’t escape a US Depression unscathed.

If anything a modern depression will look like Japan in the 90s.

Well, Paul Krugman and I think you might be right.

Given what happened to the Japanese Real Estate market in the ’90s, I’m surprised to see you acknowledge that. But you are a wriggly fish, and love to flip and love to flop, don’t you?

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Risk of a Japan-Like Scenario
The real worry is that the U.S. economy could do even worse. The parallels between the U.S. today and Japan at the beginning of the 1990s are too clear for comfort. In both cases, heavy capital losses resulting from property loans constrained the banking system. In Japan, that led to a decade of stagnation, with growth averaging 0.8% from 1992 through 2002. Home prices remain 25% below their peak, and the Nikkei stock index is still trading at one-third its level of 20 years ago. Although there are differences, the risk of the U.S. falling into a Japan-like scenario is frighteningly real.

The U.S. reliance on foreign capital adds more risk. America’s current account deficit reached a record of 6.4% of GDP in third-quarter 2006, but it was a still-high 4.7% in 2008. Private money was almost entirely financing it—at very low interest rates.

Now, foreign investors have lost confidence in most U.S. securities, and money is not so easy to come by. With markets likely to remain tight, we expect the current account deficit to narrow to 2.1% of GDP in 2009. However, for now at least, increased risks abroad have investors sending money into the U.S. and into the safe haven of Treasuries, strengthening the U.S. dollar and bringing 10-year Treasury yields down to 2.83% on Mar. 5, up from the 54-year low of 2.08% on Dec. 18. A rising dollar cuts into U.S. exports and supports the trade surpluses of other U.S. trading partners. But shrinking trade flows also add the risk of protectionist action, which would hurt global growth.

We expect investor fears outside the U.S. about the risk of a dollar decline and credit risk to increase, so the result could be both a sharp drop in the dollar and a sharp rise in U.S. interest rates, extending the recession.

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#199 Dave , so, when all these people who are going onto EI now ( around the world as well as CDA) and industry is still deteriorating ( as stated by the budget office this am) where will they hide them so as to avoid using the term Depression? This is a very differant situation from Japan in the 90′s . In the 90′s Japan had an in-country specific event and was able to pour money into bad banks to shore up a weakened industrial base while keeping the yen down for export growth. That is not the case today where irregardless how much yen they print they cannot create market share. Like here, Japans unemployment is skyrocketing. When the social safety net dries up look for a rapid deterioration in ‘news quality’.

You can be correct if the recession is over before all of these people run out of EI benefits. Whats that ? 6 mo’s from now? You are cutting in kind of close Dave. Most global economists and even our local apologists in Ottawa don’t agree with you if thats what you’ll need to happen to make your prediction come true.

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Looking at world events right now: we’ve got China trying to shift its relationship with the US; the existing military and financial superpower is insolvent and we’re facing a global downturn.

All those factors lead me to believe that in some way or another, we are more likely to go through a period of volatility and violence. If a soothsayer told me we would go through WW3 I wouldn’t find it implausible (except that I don’t believe in soothsayers).

However…

There is nothing I can do about it. And, unless a more specific, clear threat emerges, there is nothing I will do about it. Ie, I will keep my investment strategy, keep saving and when the time is right, I intend to buy a home (just because I want one, not to get rich).

There is a big difference between the following:

DOOM & GLOOM: GENERAL BEAR STYLE
information considered : many financial institutions are facing insolvency, non-FIRE related production has fallen in N. America; savings have fallen; real incomes have been almost flat awhile; many markets have been overvalued (stock, real estate, art, etc.)
prediction : overvalued markets will fall, joblessness will increase etc. UNTIL we’ve gathered some savings again and begin a new cycle of production.
solution make sure you have savings, keep your risk low, don’t take on too much debt, keep an eye on your job and network in case you lose job

and

DOOM & GLOOM: LIBERTARIAN STYLE
- information considered general global political gongshow. Iceland is insolvent, people are freaked out
prediction : (this is a real prediction, taken from Glenn Beck’s “War Room” on Fox News) The cities are going to look like Dodge City. They’re going to be uncontrollable. You’re going to have gangs in control, motorcycle marauders. You’re not going to have enough police or federales, just like Mexico, to control the situation.
solution panic, don’t trust anyone, buy a lot of gold, get a gun, invest in a bunker

There’s a difference, is what I’m sayin’

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IBM to cut 5,000 jobs in U.S.March 25, 2009 4:51 PM ET advertisement

Article tools E-mail this article Print-friendly version Discuss this articleStocks mentioned in this articleInternational Business Machines Corp (IBM) Stock Quote, Chart, News, Add to WatchlistSun Microsystems Inc (JAVA) Stock Quote, Chart, News, Add to WatchlistRelated newsBusiness HighlightsWall Street gives up some ground after huge gainsHospira, Carnival, Walt Disney are big moversGold prices fall on move out of safe-haven assetsOil rallies to near $54 a barrel
All Thomson Reuters newsNEW YORK (Reuters) – IBM will cut about 5,000 jobs in the United States, adding to similarly large cuts in the past few months, sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters on Wednesday.

The job cuts will account for over 4 percent of IBM’s U.S. workforce, which totaled around 115,000 at the end of 2008. The sources, who were not authorized to speak publicly on the issue, said the cuts will mostly be in IBM’s global services business, which includes outsourcing and consulting services.

I know Nokia has also added another 1000 layoffs to the list in addition to the previous announcements.

Anyone thinking that just because it hasn’t been announced on CKNW doesn’t mean it’s not happening

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The odds of a depression scenario have dropped considerly from the perception 6 months ago.

If we enter a depression, it will have little resemblence to the one in the 30′s. So many things have changed since then that comparisons are simply wild guesses. If anything a modern depression will look like Japan in the 90s.

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Why this recession is so bad
First things first: Even though it may seem obvious to most that this is the worst downturn since the Great Depression, the economy has experienced other serious recessions in the past, particularly in the mid-1970s and early 1980s.

But this recession dwarfs those two for several reasons.

In terms of length, the longest post-Depression economic decline was 16 months, which occurred in both the 1973-75 and 1981-82 recessions. This recession began in December 2007, which means that it will enter its 17th month next Wednesday.

The current recession is also more widespread than any other since the Depression. The Federal Reserve’s readings show that 86% of industries have cut back production since November, the most widespread reduction in the 42 years the Fed has tracked this figure.

http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/2.....2009032517

The only thing thats differant is the social safety net which delays total collapse. The economic numbers are in fact worse than the Great Depression and eventually even the spin doctors will have to come out of the ‘happy closet’ and admit it. That will only happen when they have lost thier own jobs and htey no longer hold a maandate to lie.

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No, I’m just speaking English.You commended perma-bulls for their foresight. By your definition a perma-bull could not have foresight. It’s a completely pointless argument.

But you only came on here to insult people anyway, not for a real discussion.

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“Seven in 10 Canadians believe the economy is getting weaker, which is one of the highest levels since Environics started tracking this question in 1986. In Greece, 78 per cent think the economy is worsening.
Half of Canadians believe their economy is already in recession, while 91 per cent of Japanese think theirs is.
Fifty-six per cent of Canadians say the current economic climate is the worst in their lifetimes, which puts Canada in the middle of the global pack on the issue. By comparison, nearly 89 per cent of Americans feel this way, while only 29 per cent in China do.
Twenty-nine per cent of Canadians believe the U.S. and former president George W. Bush are to blame for the economic situation, while 45 per cent of Japanese think so and only 17 per cent of Americans do. Globally, national governments were blamed most often for the crisis.
After the U.S./Bush, 14 per cent of Canadians feel their federal government is to blame for the crisis, followed by the financial industry (six per cent) and corporate greed (six per cent).
Consumer confidence has weakened globally, with negative sentiment ranging from 20 per cent in China and Germany to 83 per cent in South Korea. Half of Canadians say this is a bad time to buy, putting Canada in the middle of the pack.
Three in 10 Canadians are worried about losing their jobs, a level that is well below other countries. In Russia, for example, 71 per cent are very concerned or somewhat concerned about job loss. ”

From the looks of it, Canadians are just catching up on the bad news which has been prevalent throughout the world for many months. It’s getting worse out there and it’s going to get a lot worse there. And I agree with the hypothesis that someone posited ” Why would developers desperatly discount now if they thought it was going to get better and be able to get full price or more by this fall”. The fact is they know it’s getting worse and they’re trying to get out now by finding the last dregs of the Greater Fools out there.

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Immigrant detention system ensnares American citizens
Our view: Process leaves detainees in cruel netherworld, cries out for reform.

Hector Veloz, 37, is a U.S. citizen. His father is a decorated Vietnam War veteran. Yet for more than a year, until last summer, Veloz experienced what can only be described as a Kafkaesque nightmare. He was swept up into the U.S. immigration detention system and held in a prison in Arizona, far from his California home, as officials tried to deport him.

A unique case? Unfortunately not. The bursting-at-the-seams U.S. immigration detention system is all too often an arbitrary and cruel netherworld where normal U.S. justice standards don’t apply.

Immigration officials detained about 378,000 people last year, at least three times the number detained a decade ago. On any given day, about 33,400 people are held in some 350 facilities, including in regular prisons among criminals.

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I stand by my point: perma-bulls want everyone to believe that all the time is “a good time to buy real estate.” The perma-bears want everyone to believe “you’d be nuts to buy real estate right now.”

Yes, there are current bears who are cautious right now. But there are perma-bears on this site you will permanently reside in their parents’ basement.

Patriotz can’t even recognize inflation risk, even when he/she’s been exposed by Raven. But the perma-bears don’t want to engage Raven (or Dave). Easier to hand out a minus than to debate.

My point is illustrated by how the scoring gets dished out by the readers of these comments:

Confirm your bearish world view: +30

Argue something less than a bearish world view: relentlessly minus until the comment disappears.

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Outed by TA? LMAO. Nope, try again.

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Home price drop sharpest in Calgary: report

OTTAWA — Canadian home prices continued to slide in January, falling at an annual pace of 2.4% and continuing a retreat in value that started in February 2008, the Teranet-National Bank composite house price index shows.

Price declines were sharpest in Calgary, down 8.2% year-over-year, while Vancouver was off 4.2% per cent.

“This reading extends and deepens the home-price disinflation that began last February. It confirms that in early 2009, after more than five years of seller’s market conditions, Canadian housing as a whole was a buyer’s market,” the report said. “January was also the fifth straight month in which the composite index was down from the month before, extending the first run of consecutive monthly declines since March 2007.”

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