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Subprime foreclosures jump in BC

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This is an extension of the previous thread with some local coverage from the Vancouver Sun:

The Pirillos are among hundreds of B.C. property owners who have been caught by slumping real-estate prices and high-interest, subprime mortgages.

They bought their five-bedroom house five years ago for $114,000, but Pirillo owes Accredited Home Lenders, a U.S.-based subprime lender, $140,000 after borrowing against their house equity.

Their mortgage called for interest payments of 8.25 per cent, but when it came to renew recently, the company wouldn’t renew at any price because the bottom had fallen out of the housing market.

“My mortgage lenders evaporated. We couldn’t find anybody to lend us money,” said Pirillo.

In default, he put the house on the market but was unable to unload it for $215,000. It is currently listed at $169,000.

An extra thought for discussion: It’s taken three years for the housing market in the US to fall apart to its current level, but their collapse started before there was any really bad economic news, prices simply started to fall after getting too high.  Every spring the US markets seem to have a small rally, then fall dramatically over the rest of the year (sacramento for example).  With the current global economic climate will our market fall faster and hit bottom at a relatively quicker rate, or will the US market be recovering for years before our local market does?

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asp

#53 deathspiral Says:The Canadain government has been printing money at exactly the same pace as the US devaluing every dollar of savings accordingly. #55 VanBanker Says: Do you have information/graph of this somewhere? I haven’t heard about Canada buying long-term GOC’s yet, although they have been threatening. The federal government via CMHC has been buying mortgages from Canadian Banks. Up to $125 Billion so far, though the banks are starting to say that they have had enough. While not a traditional way for a government to "print money", the goal (and effect, I assume) is the same. Speaking of that goal, Harper talks about loosening credit markets because banks are too scared to lend. But the banks insist that they are lending. At least to worthy creditors. What has changed is that the unworthy creditors can not longer borrow from… Read more »

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TUT

Indeed "Vanvouver World Class City" may be an exageration but that's exactly true for almost every city I've visited in my life.

In one of them they say that: "Obviously Jesus Christ was a very humble man because being God, therefore able to do anything, he choose to be born in Bethlehem instead of here.."

An so the circus goes on…

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ella

"I have been pretty much everywhere and have never heard Vancouver refered to as ‘ World class’ anywhere except here."

Yeah, that's the same for me. But I did live briefly in Toronto as a child, and I remember they had "world-class" and "New York of the North" phrases which I thought were a bit sad. Now it seems to be here, too.

I actually like Vancouver. However, I have a had a weird feeling the it's grown away from me the last few years. It is starting to feel more like a mall and people are very consumerist (myself included, sometimes). I often think about leaving, but I love my friends and family, so I probably won't.

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no-lympics

Post # 64 Deathspiral:

Good post !

IMHO, Vancouver has sold out since the 1980's. The citizens are propogandized into this World Class mode/belief. Marketed to attract suckers within and attract others globally. Few gain and more lose each day…it's been a bad dream. People make a City, not the mountains nor the ocean nor the architecture…thats simply hollow window dressing.

I think it's catching up with us now…this World Class Potemkin Village will show its cracks after the make-up falls off.

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deathspiral

ella: #62 is it swagger or insecurity? Is it real or just part of an advertisement campaign for local consumption that a segment of the vacuous pop has swallowed hook line and sinker. I have been pretty much everywhere and have never heard Vancouver refered to as ' World class' anywhere except here. Is it just another tag line like 'staycation, super natural bc, vancouver nuclear free zone? I think it all began somewhere in the bowels of the tourism bc offices and was facillitated by the whoreish local media. It's all been about playing on the basic fears, ignorance and insecurity of the local population. Even the average house started to heel click and zeig heil during the nazi hey day when all the advertising was directed at that behaviour. Lets face it, a lot of people have been… Read more »

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deathspiral

VanBanker: #54 VanBanker M0 M1 M2 M3 Annual Monetary Supply Growth IQ 2008 China 13,0% 18,0% 18,0% N/A Russia 26,0% N/A 33,0% N/A Indonesia 22,0% 28,0% 15,0% N/A Norway 11,0% 8,0% 14,0% N/A U.A.E. 19,0% 51,0% 42,0% 38,0% Kuwait 11,0% 28,0% 23,0% 23,0% India 19,0% 20,0% 22,0% 22,5% Saudi Arabia 13,0% 27,0% 22,0% 22,0% Denmark 11,0% 19,0% 22,0% Turkey 20,0% 20,0% 21,0% 21,0% South Africa 14,0% 12,0% 20,0% 21,0% Australia 5,2% 3,3% 17,0% 20,0% U.S. 1,6% 1,5% 6,0% 19,0% Venezuela 1,6% 1,5% 6,0% 19,0% Brazil 21,0% 17,0% 26,0% 17,0% Sweden 0,5% 11,0% N/A 16,0% Republic of Korea -0,6% 16,0% 15,0% Poland 5,0% 17,0% 17,0% 15,0% U.K. 6,0% 16,0% 13,0% 14,0% Mexico 9,2% 10,0% 12,0% 14,0% Canada 3,4% 8,0% 8,8% 13,0% Singapore 10,0% 29,0% 12,0% 12,0% E.U.-13 7,5% 2,3% 10,0% 10,5% Japan 1,9% -1,2% 7,0% 9,0% Switzerland 0,2% -2,0% -4,5% 2,6%… Read more »

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ella

"we’re #1 in the world"

Why are canadians so obsessed with this these days? I don't remember all this world-class, best-in-the-world stuff when I was a kid.

It's kind of embarrassing.

I love Canada, but there are a LOT of great places in the world. When I come across a person who swaggers, I always assume that deep down they're a loser. So, I wish we would lose our swagger, it's so much worse than cool, diffident confidence.

We've really tied our national pride into house prices. Too bad we didn't decide to tie it to amazing landscaping, city planning and architecture 🙂

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no-lympics

From Doctor Housing Bubble: Personal Story by a Lawyer from a Previous Asset Bubble. Can we Learn from the Past and How will the Housing Decline Impact You? http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/personal-story… Rather poignant story by a lawyer from the 1930's(in BOLD hi-lighted print) Here is sample: “The boom period of the last years of the World War and the extremely inflationary period of 1919 and 1920 were like the Mississippi Bubble and the Tulip Craze in Holland in their effect upon the general public. Farm prices shot sky high almost over night. The town barber and the small-town merchant bought and sold options until every town square was a real estate exchange. Bankers and lawyers, doctors and ministers left their offices and clients and drove pell mell over the country to procure options and contracts upon this farm and that, paying a… Read more »

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no-lympics

Post # 58 Skye:

I agree:

I have been looking over Greater Fool archives and seeing Garth's predictions unfold ( which were in contrast to what the Gov't was saying ).

Garth more recently said the big banks will not fail…which is likely coded language that Gov't will have to step in at some time.

This is a global economic crisis, Canada is small potatoes,highly dependent on solvent international customers, and if the bigger countries and their own banks are near collapse, WTF is this BS re: Canadian banks being solid, stable etc. Its simply a relativity game , not an absolute, and eventually they can ALL go over the cliff.

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ella

" and that CIBC is starting to do it too."

Well, that's good. That they're starting to do it 😉

"Oh, to the idiot who’s a lender at three banks"

For someone who just signed on the dotted line for a wealth-building empire, and got great deals on stock, you're awfully testy today.

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Starving Artist

Almost every night on the news I hear them crowing about how great our Canadian banks are, how solid and stable and we're #1 in the world etc. The more they talk them up, the more I expect them to come crumbling down at some point.

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blueskies

excellent photos!

john should pay particular attention to #17…..

the sea of SUVs' fading off into the distance….

powerful statement indeed!

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Van-zee

Thanks for the link to the photo essay, a really powerful set of images and a great commentary on the scope of things as a global issue.

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no-lympics

From Garth's blog , mid 2008 QUOTE: I think part of the problem in smaller cities is the agents. With small cities, “Realestate” agents can control markets especially with younger buyers and this is what happened to me. I recently sold my home in Winnipeg, MB. The potential to make some coin was to great and my wife and I decided to flip and wait for the market to crash. Plus we could rent the same house for way less then mortgage. My house was listed for $159,900…….double what I paid 4 years ago. The agents had one open house and then offers were accepted the following night. There was only one offer and it was well under list. My agent told me I should expect more then my list so when I saw this I was surprised but then… Read more »

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VanBanker

"deathspiral Says:

March 19th, 2009 at 3:15 pm

The Canadain government has been printing money at exactly the same pace as the US devaluing every dollar of savings accordingly. "

Do you have information/graph of this somewhere? I haven't heard about Canada buying long-term GOC's yet, although they have been threatening.

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no-lympics

Interesting photos " picture is worth a thousand words" re the global economic collapse.

Financial Armageddon

http://www.financialarmageddon.com/

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deathspiral

The Canadain government has been printing money at exactly the same pace as the US devaluing every dollar of savings accordingly. The effects will be rising costs of imports as our dollar continues to be artificially devalued. Fewer jobs means fewer buyers , it's pretty simple. The CDN economy is dependant on the strength of the US economy. It's pretty simple , we are a single hemmoriod on the ass of the US economy. Hope they don't get an even more serious bout of diharrea.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29771904/

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/dev/null

deathspiral: So a guy posting an editorial on a site called "321gold.com" is predicting that the dollar is a crappy investment? Shocked, I am.

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The Dude

We hear more and more about looming inflation in the US from the printing presses churning out bailout billions. What does the forum think about the impact of US inflation on the Canadian economy and our local re market.

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deathspiral

The Mother of All Depressions (MOAD) Bob Moriarty Archives Mar 19, 2009 The US government lit the fuse to the $683 trillion dollar derivative's debt bomb on Wednesday March 18, 2009 with the announcement the Fed would purchase $300 billion dollars worth of US Treasury used toilet paper and an additional $750 billion dollars worth of mortgage backed used toilet paper. In total the commitment to counterfeit over a trillion dollars leaves only $682 trillion dollars worth of derivatives to sort out. Economics is all about price discovery. No one knows what the real value is of the $683 trillion dollars in derivatives. No one knows who owns what. No one knows who owes what. If left to its own devices, the market would lower prices until all assets had a value to someone. The government in its infinite wisdom… Read more »

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/dev/null

That vacancy rate (Sun story) is commercial, not residential.

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dingus

What does reporting the proportion foreclosures that are subprime really tell you? Anything? It gets you a nice fat number, but what are you to take away from the number? That bad credit risks are at more risk of default than good credit risks? Well, duh. That's why they're bad credit risks and end up with subprime lenders in the first place. Hardly surprising that they're overrepresented in the foreclosure numbers. The real issue is the threat that subprime foreclosures present to the overall market. Given that only 7% of the mortgage market is subprime, I'd have to say big whoop. (Though is 7% a big number? Hard to know. What was the proportion in the US, as a comparative?) In the US, "subprime" mortgages were 100+ LTV, interest only or negative amortization. Here, "subprime" just means "high rate". Subprime… Read more »

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gasbag

Eugene:

#43 isn't this something like a 700% increase YOY?

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gasbag

patriotz:

#45 there's nothing to indicate that this is any kind of sustained rally. The three months prior proved to be a suckers rally and the market can very well re test the November lows. It's what markets do. If anything it's 'traders' rally in a down trend where in fact the price channels indicate the potential for further weakness. When the traders are finished watching the MACD weaken they'll sell out and leave the hopeful with thier hopes but no cash.

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patriotz

joycer:

Well of course, because stock market investors are on the buy side and the RE shills are on the sell side. So stock market investors may get it wrong, but they don't have an incentive to get it wrong.

I agree we will see a bottom in housing well after a bottom in the stock market. RE cycles are incredibly sluggish. But don't take a recovery in the stock market as any indication the RE prices are going detach from fundamentals even after a lag of a few years. I think this bottom is going to be a very long one. The bottom in the 80's lasted essentially for four years, and there were a number of factors pulling the RE market up in the late 80's that are not going to be around this time.

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