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March 19th, 2009 at 2:51 pm
The Mother of All Depressions (MOAD)
Bob Moriarty
Archives
Mar 19, 2009
The US government lit the fuse to the $683 trillion dollar derivative’s debt bomb on Wednesday March 18, 2009 with the announcement the Fed would purchase $300 billion dollars worth of US Treasury used toilet paper and an additional $750 billion dollars worth of mortgage backed used toilet paper. In total the commitment to counterfeit over a trillion dollars leaves only $682 trillion dollars worth of derivatives to sort out.
Economics is all about price discovery. No one knows what the real value is of the $683 trillion dollars in derivatives. No one knows who owns what. No one knows who owes what. If left to its own devices, the market would lower prices until all assets had a value to someone. The government in its infinite wisdom has just short-circuited this discovery mechanism.
This is the end of the dollar. Everyone with any sense on earth will be unloading both their treasuries and mortgage-backed crap on the Fed. The Fed has just pissed $1 trillion of counterfeit money into a $683 trillion dollar cesspit. It can’t possibly fix the problem. When the world realizes the impact of the Fed monetizing all debt, there will be a total default. And then what happens?
The Mother of All Depressions.
The ability to publicly fund its debt has been what has kept the US government spending. Once that ability is dead, so is the government.
The meeting of the G20 in London on April 2, 2009 will be the most important financial meeting in history. If the delegates do not adopt a new gold standard of honest money, the dollar will totally default within a few months. The fuse has been lit. There is nothing the government can do beyond what they have already done. Nothing has worked. Nothing can work.
March 19th, 2009 at 2:08 pm
That vacancy rate (Sun story) is commercial, not residential.
March 19th, 2009 at 1:22 pm
What does reporting the proportion foreclosures that are subprime really tell you? Anything? It gets you a nice fat number, but what are you to take away from the number? That bad credit risks are at more risk of default than good credit risks? Well, duh. That’s why they’re bad credit risks and end up with subprime lenders in the first place. Hardly surprising that they’re overrepresented in the foreclosure numbers.
The real issue is the threat that subprime foreclosures present to the overall market. Given that only 7% of the mortgage market is subprime, I’d have to say big whoop. (Though is 7% a big number? Hard to know. What was the proportion in the US, as a comparative?)
In the US, “subprime” mortgages were 100+ LTV, interest only or negative amortization.
Here, “subprime” just means “high rate”. Subprime is a scary word, but like the Globe article, you wonder if there’s more than a little overdramatization of the problem.
Look at it the other way. A little more than half of the foreclosure numbers are “prime” mortgages! Not much of a story, is it.
March 19th, 2009 at 1:15 pm
Eugene:
#43 isn’t this something like a 700% increase YOY?
March 19th, 2009 at 1:13 pm
patriotz:
#45 there’s nothing to indicate that this is any kind of sustained rally. The three months prior proved to be a suckers rally and the market can very well re test the November lows. It’s what markets do. If anything it’s ‘traders’ rally in a down trend where in fact the price channels indicate the potential for further weakness. When the traders are finished watching the MACD weaken they’ll sell out and leave the hopeful with thier hopes but no cash.
March 19th, 2009 at 12:58 pm
joycer:
Well of course, because stock market investors are on the buy side and the RE shills are on the sell side. So stock market investors may get it wrong, but they don’t have an incentive to get it wrong.
I agree we will see a bottom in housing well after a bottom in the stock market. RE cycles are incredibly sluggish. But don’t take a recovery in the stock market as any indication the RE prices are going detach from fundamentals even after a lag of a few years. I think this bottom is going to be a very long one. The bottom in the 80′s lasted essentially for four years, and there were a number of factors pulling the RE market up in the late 80′s that are not going to be around this time.
March 19th, 2009 at 12:56 pm
Oh, to the idiot who’s a lender at three banks, who was blabbing something about only credit unions reporting mortgages to the credit bureau, who intimated that lenders commit mortgage fraud…well, I just came back from signing my mortgage papers with a lending office and asked her about Scotiabank reporting mortgages. She said Yes, they report on ALL their mortgages (not just the “special product mortgages”) and that CIBC is starting to do it too.
Mr. Lender, you’re very out of the loop.
March 19th, 2009 at 12:54 pm
Vancouver vacancy rate jumps 7.3%.He he he.
http://www.vancouversun.com/bu.....story.html
March 19th, 2009 at 12:47 pm
“You didn’t answer the question. How much those people lost if they bought after the market dropped by 50% in 1929? Since the total drop was 90%, did they lost 45% or they lost 80%???”
Google it!
March 19th, 2009 at 12:23 pm
patriotz:
Agreed, but I trust the collective thoughts of the market more than the real estate pundits telling me there’s never been a better time to buy or politicians saying Canada is immune to a US style meltdown. There may be many dead cat bounces to come that give some false indication that the economy is improving. It’s the rally that is confirmed by corporate guidance (not necessarily present earnings) that is going to last and signal we’re turning a corner. I don’t think we’ll see a bottom in housing until then.
March 19th, 2009 at 12:09 pm
The stock market is a leading indicator whereas the housing market is a lagging indicator. In any event, look for a stock market recovery long before housing prices begin to rise again on a sustained basis (once they find a bottom, they’ll be relatively flat for some considerable period).
March 19th, 2009 at 11:39 am
joycer:
A turn in the stock markets doesn’t indicate that the worst is over. It just means that stock market investors think the worst is over.
March 19th, 2009 at 11:16 am
Now is not the bottom, we are still headed into bad economic times and housing is a lagging indicator of the economy.
For example, as the economy starts to turn lower, housing still trucks along because even as people are laid off, they do everything they can to try to hold on to their home. It’s not until some time later that they realize they are not going to be able to make their payments and need to sell before they have it taken away by the bank. So there is a delay in the reaction of the housing market following the general economy lower.
On the other hand, people do not anticipate their employment and savings and say “gee, things are crappy right now, but in 6 months I bet I’ll have a job again and we’ll have some savings put aside, let’s go tell the bank our plan and get a mortgage to buy a house now”. Of course it works the opposite way, especially now that banks are scared to lend to only well qualified buyers with sizable down payments. The economy needs to pick up first, so a person can get a job that shows some stability and then put savings away in order to be approved for a mortgage to buy the house. So again there is a delay from when the economy improves to when housing reacts.
Given that the savings rate has been negative for sometime now, there is even less padding/support to act as a buffer this time around. People will not be able to hold out as long as before nor will they be able to enter as early as before when a recovery does start to surface.
Whatever blips show up until the economy recovers will be just blips, there is no fundamental support until after the economy has turned. I for one tend to agree with Garth Turner, that since the stock market is forward looking, we need to first see a sizeable and sustained rally in the overall markets indicating that the economy is 3-6 months from the bottom before we even bother to look at the housing market. I’m looking for a 30-40% rally in the DOW/TSX/S&P etc. from theirs lows that is sustained at least a month before I feel the markets have indicated the worst is over.
March 19th, 2009 at 10:50 am
Rents:
My anecdotal evidence is that rents are decreasing. My place which I am vacating has been re-rented for $25/month less than what I was paying. My landlord has been having trouble renting their semi-highend properties until they adjusted their asking rents downward. Someone my wife knows had been renting out a South Granville townhouse for $3K/mo and is currently asking $2600/mo with no takers, but they were recently offered $2400/mo.
Foreclosures:
The front page newspaper articles say one thing, and then there’s this article on the news1130 site:
http://www.news1130.com/news/l.....14152_7992
so I have to wonder where the truth really lies, and does anybody really know?
March 19th, 2009 at 10:46 am
Raven:
You didn’t answer the question. How much those people lost if they bought after the market dropped by 50% in 1929? Since the total drop was 90%, did they lost 45% or they lost 80%???
March 19th, 2009 at 10:31 am
“It certainly is. What matters is price/income and price/rent. Everything else is just details.”
You say it more succinctly that I
March 19th, 2009 at 10:01 am
If you ever want to get an idea for how stupid Vancouver condos are have a look at condos for sale in Honolulu. You can get a 2 bed condo in Waikiki for well under $300K. If you’ve ever been to Hawaii you know that it’s a way better place than Vancouver could ever hope to be even if you discount the climate.
March 19th, 2009 at 10:00 am
man, they are pumping RE hard on the Bill Good Show this morning… rents will never go down, says Good… Ozzie saying it’s a great time to buy, blah.. blah.. blah. Some good callers though.
March 19th, 2009 at 9:27 am
ella:
The subprime versus prime issue is really just a sidetrack.
It certainly is. What matters is price/income and price/rent. Everything else is just details.
March 19th, 2009 at 9:21 am
The subprime versus prime issue is really just a sidetrack.
There are plenty of prime borrowers who either bought at the extreme edge of their means (and cannot generate savings to protect themselves from future downturns).
There are plenty of prime borrowers who couldn’t handle a small jump in interest rates.
There are plenty of prime borrowers who have borrowed heavily against the assessed value of their home.
There are plenty of prime borrowers who have speculated and bought up multiple cash-flow negative properties. (And most investors think they’re “long-term” until things get scary.)
Markets have fallen without the aid of massive subprime lending in the past and they will do again. Subprime is just kindling.
March 19th, 2009 at 8:45 am
Subprime in the US represents 22%, and its characterized as an unprecedented disaster. Canada’s subprime represents 7%, (likely higher in the Lower Mainland) roughly a third of the US’s, and its characterized as a non-issue.
We may be floating at a higher level than the US, but in the subprime context we’re still circling around the same porcelain convenience.
March 19th, 2009 at 8:43 am
Raven:
Brian Peterson, President of the Mortgage Brokers Association of B.C. says:
- like many others, he tries to give us the impression that Canada-wide statistics are relevant to BC. They’re not.
- doesn’t mention that the reason that mortgage arrears were recently at record lows is that at the top of the market anyone can sell for cash or refinance. It’s only when prices start falling that the properties become upside down and the borrowers get into trouble. Mortgage arrears were also at record lows at the top of the market in the US.
March 19th, 2009 at 8:25 am
Nope, never said I was an expert. Just chiming in with my opinions like the rest of you.
March 19th, 2009 at 8:21 am
Brian Peterson, President of the Mortgage Brokers Association of B.C. says blah blah blah blah.
March 19th, 2009 at 8:20 am
You worked in a bank…quite the expert. Keep buying penny stocks, Pollyanna.
March 19th, 2009 at 8:19 am
http://www.news1130.com/news/l.....14152_7992
Brian Peterson, President of the Mortgage Brokers Association of B.C. says: “There are not as many subprime mortgages done in Canada. In fact, subprime is a very small percentage and the mortgage arrears rate is up, but it’s up from record lows.”
March 19th, 2009 at 7:59 am
PITY PARTY!!! Aren’t they so much fun? Man, I’m a breath of optimism you don’t see HERE everyday, lol.
I’m a Sr Business Analyst, in IT, not a financial analyst, although I went to school for finances and worked in a bank for a decade. This ain’t 1929 and the feds came out yesterday with a heavy artillery to fight the recession, something they didn’t do back in the Great Depression. I have every faith the USA will pull out of this recession.
Whoohoo! And the loonie takes flight and inflation is back. I think we’ll be OK, my man. Group HUG!
March 19th, 2009 at 7:52 am
Raven:
As a Senior Financial Analyst, you are saying AIG, GE and all the banks are good value and cheap. I don’t know what kind of qualification you have but assume you are an accountant. Most financial analysts are accountants with CA or CGA. As a CFA and CFP, I can tell everyone here you know nothing about stock analysis and have no clue about economy. I totally agree with Patriotz. Those companies are insoluvent. The several major US banks are holding GIGANTIC derivative portfolios. JP Morgan with 90 trillion. How much AIG had in derivative portfolio? They only had 2.8 trillion and now down to 1.6 trillion. They need 180 billion bailout to stay soluvent. How much more they need? Who knows. Our solid Canadian banks also have those lovely things. RBC with 4.6 trillion, CIBC with the smallest portfolio just under 2 trillion. If you invest all your money into those financial instititions, good luck for you. You may endup to make a good profit. Those stocks may endup just like your 6 properties.
March 19th, 2009 at 7:37 am
In yesterday’s thread, RAVEN claimed the market already down 50%, not much room for further downturn. Probably he never checked what happened in 1929. From the top to the trough during 1929 to 1932, the DOW dropped nearly 90% (89.2%). RAVEN, as a Senor Financial Analyst, can you tell us for those people who bought after the market dropped 50%, how much loss they incureed?
March 19th, 2009 at 3:56 am
Raven,
you were, at times, in the other thread, speaking _some_ sense. however to claim that AIG or GE is currently a good buy is frickin looney-tunes (for the very simple reason patriotz mentions). have fun with that.
March 19th, 2009 at 2:12 am
Raven,
This isn’t a pump & dump website.
Go back to calling widows and orphans.
March 18th, 2009 at 11:42 pm
Patriotz, I just realize you’re not very bright. Just a suggestion–don’t use absolutes.
March 18th, 2009 at 11:37 pm
Raven:
BTW, if anyone here picked up AIG, BAC, GE, or C last week, you would’ve been up over 100% by now. These stocks were trading WAY below their value, like penny stocks that they aren’t.
What value? A company that cannot continue operating without government support is worthless. All the major US financials are probably insolvent. The market is betting on continued handouts to them. I’m not sure whether that’s a good bet.
March 18th, 2009 at 11:15 pm
“Raven: in response to your post #147 yesterday, this link’s for you, about those pesky P/E ratios in the stock market…”
This article was useless to me. I don’t look at Future P/Es–I look at actual P/Es (current stock price over the latest earnings per share). Like any indicators, it’s just one of many ratios I look at to determine whether I should buy the stock or not.
BTW, if anyone here picked up AIG, BAC, GE, or C last week, you would’ve been up over 100% by now. These stocks were trading WAY below their value, like penny stocks that they aren’t. I own three of them and I expect them to double within three years from their current levels. Financials index was already up 54% just from last week!
I’ve NEVER seen these stocks, along with blue chips like Coca Cola company, Johnson & Johnson, and strong Canadian banks trade so cheap.
March 18th, 2009 at 10:29 pm
ulsterman: Oh, man. Mark me down! LOL Where are my spectacles anyway?
March 18th, 2009 at 10:23 pm
Lily Pad, i think Other Ted became aware of that fact around 4.40pm.
March 18th, 2009 at 9:51 pm
other ted: other ted, ahem, the first sentence says they are from Port Alberni.
And to answer the question put forward, yes, I see Canada’s (especially Vancouver’s) housing market recovering much later that that of the U.S. We’re always a step-and-a-half behind.
March 18th, 2009 at 7:51 pm
With the current global economic climate will our market fall faster and hit bottom at a relatively quicker rate, or will the US market be recovering for years before our local market does?
Well first of all you have to define “recover”. Do you mean prices will stop falling, or do you mean prices will start going up? To what level?
US house prices are going to fall to or below rent equivalence and stay there. Look at the fundamentals: 19 million empty properties (almost 1 in 7), massive consumer debt, unemployment at post WWII highs, interest rates at historic lows which will rise at the first sign of inflation, loss of retirement assets by boomers.
As we have seen all through this cycle, BC is just a microcosm of the US, or more precisely US bubble states such as California. I can see no other outcome for BC than for the US. There is just no getting out of it.
March 18th, 2009 at 7:35 pm
Raven: in response to your post #147 yesterday, this link’s for you, about those pesky P/E ratios in the stock market…
http://tinyurl.com/d9mlj6
March 18th, 2009 at 6:41 pm
http://business.theglobeandmai.....iness/home
Looks like the fed is buying bonds to push down rates. Maybe mortgage rates will in fact go down further (assuming the CDN RE market doesn’t develop other cankers like widespread default risk).
The fed is certainly living up to its promise that it is going to do anything to keep things afloat. Quantitative easing is risky so it is a little worrying that they are resorting to this measure (doesn’t give me much confidence in believing all the reassurances given in recent media blitzes that the economy will start to recover by year’s end).
March 18th, 2009 at 6:39 pm
john:
#8, don’t forget world class dim sum and special massage parlours with real live sex slaves from China
March 18th, 2009 at 6:37 pm
Singapore is a service industry, tourism, export driven economy much like BC. It is in many ways like Vancouver except that the government is so much smarter than that of any BC governance entity. In fact these people make the BC government and buisness people look like a rocket scientist versus a kindergarten kid. And the Singapore economy is in the toilet. Exports are down 35%, tourism is down and services are down across the board. I’ve been there several times, it’s real world class. The hotel services are real world class ( I stay at the Oriental) make Vancouver’s bed bug infested flea pits look pathetic.
If anyone could get out of an economic jam it’s the Singapore team. I wouldn’t put my hopes on Vancouver getting better until the REALLY smart economies of the world start to improve. Smarts wise, Vancouver is something like ass pimple goo. Bed bug infested ass pimple goo.
http://www.channelnewsasia.com.....89/1/.html
March 18th, 2009 at 6:31 pm
Now that Vancouver has a bigtime soccer league the economy is going to takeoff. Now we have 3 big time sports teams in this town! Rich asian investors like sports and SUVs and strippers.
March 18th, 2009 at 6:18 pm
The experts are at each others throats. Dodge vs Harper battle to the death ( oh still my beating heart) for the hearts and minds of the Canadian sheeple.
David Dodge ex BOC Governor has been vey blunt with his rather negative assesment of the prospects for the Canadian economy. Dodge is lined up with International opinion and the official canadian opinions voiced by the Finance Minister and the current BOC Governor at the current G20 meeting.
Stephen Harper is cheerleading,saying exactly the opposite for local consumption, at odds with every published prognosis by world economists, buisness leaders and the ugly fact parade.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com...../politics/
March 18th, 2009 at 5:00 pm
Nice post, especially the sacramento bit. It’s interesting to see the usual shills screaming “the bottom is in, get in before getting priced out forever”.
March 18th, 2009 at 4:40 pm
I guess i should have started from the beginning not read down from where the post left off
March 18th, 2009 at 4:40 pm
I am bad mark me down it starts off with saying port alberni
March 18th, 2009 at 4:38 pm
no should read know
March 18th, 2009 at 4:37 pm
What a horrible article. It made no sense. It did not say what city in BC but I do no 2700 block 5th ave sounds like vancouver. What 5 bedroom house went for 115000 5 years or even 25 years ago. Forget realtors lets tar and feather reporters.
March 18th, 2009 at 4:25 pm
I’m #1 …..I tink