BC real estate on 3 month rally

Housing markets tend to run in multi-year cycles, but the Vancouver Sun is reporting that spring sales and prices are up in BC since January:

“[March sales are] actually quite an improvement from what we experienced in the winter months, and really, right now are trending on what we might expect,” said Cameron Muir, chief economist for the B.C. Real Estate Association, in an interview.

Extrapolating March sales out over the rest of the year, Muir said sales will trend at levels somewhere around sales levels experienced during 2000-01.

“That’s what we would expect given a weaker economy [and] rising unemployment.”

From November to January, Muir said sales levels resembled the mid-1980s, which saw much worse economic conditions.

Muir said unemployment levels at the beginning of the current decade were higher than they are today, though “we’re expecting, of course, continued erosion of employment levels over the coming months.”

However, he said the combination of falling prices and interest rates continues to draw buyers back into the market.

Full article at the Vancouver Sun.

Rather than ramble on about spring bounces I’ll just show a picture of the last three years in Sacramento from the Sacramento Land(ing) Blog – the only spring that hasn’t bounced is this one:

46 Comments
newest
oldest most voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Patiently Waiting
Patiently Waiting
11 years ago

JOE,

So what? Their house would have sold at over 800K last year.

Where are going get your info now? Let me guess…a realwhore?

sammy
sammy
11 years ago

house prices seem to be rising. looked at a house 3 months ago, which was taken of market. Similar home on next street at 30K more this month. pretty distressing.

JOE
JOE
11 years ago

I feel so stupid.

After having followed this forum quite regularly i told my neighbour in Surrey,that their house would never sell at the 2009 price they put it on the market for last week. Guess what it sold in 2 weeks at asking price of 695,000. SO MUCH FOR THIS VANCOUVER HOUSING CRASH. Pretty pessimestics on my site in my opinion. Wont be reading this info ANY more !!!!

Aleks
Aleks
11 years ago

VanBanker:

"Very true, I look forward to rent equivalence as well.

However, what mortgage terms do you compare to rents? 20-35 year am? What size deposit?"

I still think the old standard 25%/25 year will apply. Any time I hear that there's a new paradigm, I'm skeptical. That to me is bubble talk, so when the bubble is over that talk will be over.

Denialisrampant
Denialisrampant
11 years ago

Patiently Waiting:

Considering the lowest rate of 3.25 1 year fixed won't be available in a years time let alone two the current payment would be $2000+ p/m. You'd have to be uber stupid to fall for this scam if $999 p/m is why you're buying.

Patiently Waiting
Patiently Waiting
11 years ago

A project on Westwood Plateau called Whitetail Lane is offering 0% mortgages for two years. That's how you buy something for $419K and get $999/month payments.

There are simple-minded fools who will say, "Gee, that's less than my rent."

And what happens at the end of two years…? This ain't no TV set.

observer
observer
11 years ago

Now that the bubble of air has become a bouncing ball, it's going to be hard to keep the ball from its natural tendency to fall back to earth. There are just too many gravitational and frictional forces. Actually, the ball is made of lead, but it is not yet widely known.

Anonymous
Anonymous
11 years ago

“[March sales are] actually quite an improvement from what we experienced in the winter months, and really, right now are trending on what we might expect,” said Cameron Muir, chief economist for the B.C. Real Estate Association, in an interview.

——————

Can't believe he is actually getting paid for burping up this shit.

read on
read on
11 years ago

“Or is majority of our population really fools who have no comprehension of basic math? “

Yes, it is. But that is beside the point.

jesse
11 years ago

Anon: "Or is majority of our population really fools who have no comprehension of basic math? "

Not exactly. Most people bought when prices were significantly lower. They choose not to do the math because:

a) they don't need to

b) it won't affect whether they will sell or not

c) if they do and learn the horrible truth, they'll be ostracised at dinner parties. I should know.

Denialisrampant
Denialisrampant
11 years ago

Big trouble in paradise. The jumbo Option Arm and Alt-A reaet wave is chewing up the middle class borrowers like a woodchipper. Oh it's coming all right. Hawaii foreclosures soar 503% in March Increase in March was 2nd only to North Dakota, which saw 563 percent rise A decline in property values and continued constriction of home sales have made avoiding foreclosure harder for many people who can't pay or refinance their mortgage in a poor economic climate that has included widespread cuts in wages and jobs. http://www.honoluluadvertiser.com/article/2009041… You think that like Vancouver, Hawaii had a never ending supply of rich foreigners, international retirees and investors waiting to snap at every listing. And talk about running out of land….. on an island . Like Vancouver , prices should be going up not down, Hmmmmmmmmmmm….? Is there something wrong with the… Read more »

VanBanker
VanBanker
11 years ago

"Aleks Says:

April 16th, 2009 at 3:25 pm

When current prices are in line with or slightly lower than current rents, that’s when we’ll be able to say fairly confidently that the bottom is in."

Very true, I look forward to rent equivalence as well.

However, what mortgage terms do you compare to rents? 20-35 year am? What size deposit?

squidly77
squidly77
11 years ago

Aleks..woops i missed the spirit of your post..my bad 🙂

squidly77
squidly77
11 years ago

For example, I knew some people who thought prices were too high in 2001 (the bottom of the last cycle)”

no one could have possibly fore-casted the rot and corruption that allowed this housing bubble to form..and i mean no one

sub-crime $0 down and NINJA mortgages were impossible to predict..

anyone remember the california strawberry picker who made $18,000/yr that was given a $800,000 mortgage by countrywide

predict that..

Fiscalcomedy
Fiscalcomedy
11 years ago

onanimus.

Canadian immigration rules for investors /entrepeneurs are the laughing stock of the global crime community.

Hand over $400000, which you get back after 5 years and you and your extended family are in for the best free health care and education in Western world for life. You just have to run a money laundering nail bar / restaurant etc for a few years and buy a condo or two. Its easier than becoming a realtor. Read the book MacMafia and you'll get the picture and wonder why the gunfire didnt break out sooner.

pricedoutfornow
pricedoutfornow
11 years ago

Aleks: "There are plenty of economists who believe we’re in a generational bubble caused by the baby boomers" That's a very good point, I agree that we're in a generational bubble-how many times have your relatives told you "I bought this house in 1970 for $40k and now it's worth $400k" I'm not sure this is a sustainable trend, especially with all boomers set to retire and sell their houses around the same time (or just die, thus sell) and with fewer of us young people around to sell to..doesn't take a genius to see that this housing as an investment idea may have run its course. Of course, I could be wrong and housing will always go up (I'm not just talking about inflation). But it sort of reminds me of the people who are arguing that GM should… Read more »

Aleks
Aleks
11 years ago

"You should be careful Anon. When you’re waiting for a bottom, you need to discern the difference between a realistic bottom based on history and fundamentals, and what you would LIKE the bottom to be. For example, I knew some people who thought prices were too high in 2001 (the bottom of the last cycle)" It's not that simple. There are plenty of economists who believe we're in a generational bubble caused by the baby boomers, in which case 2001 was not the real bottom of the market and extrapolating from it won't tell you anything. Yes, the market could only drop 30%, but it could also go much lower. If you look at business cycles going back more than 50 years, we are indeed due for a depression. If that happens, even 75% may not be the bottom. What… Read more »

Denialisrampant
Denialisrampant
11 years ago

IMPLOSION !!!!!!!!!! General Growth Properties files for bankruptcy By Steve Goldstein & Andria Cheng, MarketWatch Last update: 2:20 p.m. EDT April 16, 2009Comments: 179NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — After several rounds of waivers from creditors and a long struggle to stay afloat, the nation's second largest mall operator, General Growth Properties, on Thursday filed for bankruptcy protection, saying it couldn't reach an out-of-court consensus on how to restructure its $27 billion of outstanding debt. The Chicago-based firm, which operates malls in 44 states, was brought low by an aggressive growth and acquisition strategy funded by debt, and is symbolic of the crisis growing in the commercial real estate market. And the trouble for firms like General Growth are likely to continue, according to the latest report about U.S. economic conditions released this week in th eso-called Beige Book. "Nonresidential real estate… Read more »

Kareas
Kareas
11 years ago

onanimus: I remember another city that was supposed to be different because of all the drug money and wealthy foreigners that wanted to live there.

It's called Miami and it's suffered one of the biggest US market crashes.

The bigger the hype the harder the bust.

ragingbull
ragingbull
11 years ago

Great news ! Only 610,000 seasonably adjusted jobs were lost this past WEEK !

In jobs data, initial claims dropped by 53,000 to a seasonally adjusted 610,000 in the week ended April 11, the fewest total claims seen for a week since Jan. 24, the Labor Department reported. See Economic Report.

Sweep aside the 'adjustment, the U6 and the hedonics and it's probably closer to a million.

digger
digger
11 years ago

Copied from Garths blog. PS: Good read for SB The Canadian Real Estate Association must be stretching it now. They compare March 09 sales to February 09 sales. Of course the numbers are up as they always are. And April should be better than March. What a scam! Just look at TREB stats on http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/consumer_in… Here is tell the real truth about numbers. The percentage of sales relative to total listing inventory is the real picture. Example from TREB: 2008 sales were 74,552 on 162168 listings availabe. Thats about 45% down from about 57% in 2007when they posted 93,193 sales. Unfortunately they do not like to track inventory very well. When you see their chart of past years this can show you what can happen… example 1990 (last recession) sales 26778 and listings 94480 (28.3%) average price $254,490. The word… Read more »

Supraboy
Supraboy
11 years ago

Cash holders, better get in before the rally continues.

digger
digger
11 years ago
arit
11 years ago

Strataman:

You own a farm outside and rent in the city.

Could you elaborate more, please. I'm curious.

Realpaul,

Cool posts, as always!

Regards

arit

realpaul
realpaul
11 years ago

VanBanker: #17 VB, it's hard to say isn't it? The total % decline may take everyone by surprise depending on the extent and duration of the recession. I have to give the MSM full props for sliding the spin away from reality and that has the sheeple unaware of the bigger picture. But…like your friends who capitualted at the top and the bottom it is so typical of the effect of propaganda. It often has people falsely convinced to buy at exactly the wrong time due to the emotion a good ad campaign can generate. Sad but true. Frankly, I don't want to hazard a guess at what level the market Will fall to. We know that 10 X's income is simply way too high. Fundamentally the market has room to fall a full 75%, no doubt. I guess the… Read more »