Friday Free-for-all!
Alrighty, time for our end of the week news round up and open topic discussion. Here are a few stories I’ve noticed lately:
-BOC: Economy contracted 7.3% in first 3 months of 2009
-Low interest rates revive Vancouver rental market
-Economy blamed for shorter camping season
-Consumers see glimmer of hope for economy
-Canadian have more home equity than Americans
-Canada prepared to offer auto giants $6 billion
-Vancouvers affordability problem
-Recession weary consumers crank up booze consumption
-Bank of Canada prepares to fight record slump
-Hope of USA spring bounce gets a setback
-Critics stress out over US bank stress tests
So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!
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April 28th, 2009 at 11:35 am
Bilbo Bloggins: As a former resident of New York, I can tell you that you have to be very careful when evaluating the actual monthly costs of owning in the city. Most owned units in NYC carry ridiculously high co-op fees. In many cases, these monthly fees are equivalent to what you would pay in rent in Vancouver for a similar unit. Fees regularly reach $1,500 a month–or more.
I’ve never figured out exactly why all this money is needed, but that’s the way it works there. When you add in the fees, which you will have to pay during the entire time you own (and which will inevitably go up), it makes you think twice about owning in NYC.
April 28th, 2009 at 11:35 am
Bilbo Bloggins: As a former resident of New York, I can tell you that you have to be very careful when evaluating the actual monthly costs of owning in the city. Most owned units in NYC carry ridiculously high co-op fees. In many cases, these monthly fees are equivalent to what you would pay in rent in Vancouver for a similar unit. Fees regularly reach $1,500 a month–or more.
I’ve never figured out exactly why all this money is needed, but that’s the way it works there. When you add in the fees, which you will have to pay during the entire time you own (and which will inevitably go up), it makes you think twice about owning in NYC.
April 27th, 2009 at 12:23 pm
“eat me Says:
April 27th, 2009 at 2:44 am
patriotz writes: “If you had a 100% speculation tax you would never have a housing bubble, because all bubbles are based on expectations of speculative gains, and if you tax away those gains, you will have no speculative buying. Period.”
Marxist. Who decides what is a speculation and what is an investment. Is buying gold an investment? Protection against a devalued currency? Speculation?
But good for you, thinking that you or whatever saviour you vote for would be wise enough to divine the difference.”
Haha, wow, what a knee-jerk reaction. God forbid people not be allowed to flip their properties at will, how will people “get on the property ladder” if that happens?
Here is some economics for you my friend: having people spend their income servicing mortgage debt provides less economic benefit to society than saving (which eventually works its way into the system as investment in capital goods).
April 27th, 2009 at 8:14 am
eatme wrote at 2:36 am “Maybe after you’ve learned something you’ll be able to afford to move out of your mom’s place in Rundle and into a non-degenerate part of Cowtown.”
Hey, when you addressed “squabbly” in your post, you gave yourself away as the goof who posts at albertabubble.blogspot.com under the monicker “Art Vandelay”, the fictitious fool played by the fictititious idiot George Costanza from Seinfeld re-runs, which you presumably were watching while posting at 2:36 am.
You got the wrong blog, bubba. Most people in Vancouver won’t know about “Rundle” and “Cowtown”. Some will think that “Cowtown” refers to Guelph, Ontario, not Calgary. btw, I can guess about your other monickers. Give it up, you have nothing to say of any importance. I’m tired of your trolling under different names.
April 27th, 2009 at 8:03 am
Olympic Village lies backs in the news with new leaked memo surfacing. Disaster was well known but a coverup took palce behind the scenes.
FRANCES BULA
Special to The Globe and Mail
April 27, 2009 at 8:13 AM EDT
Vancouver’s then-chief financial officer wrote only one memo to express her concerns about the financing of the Olympic village before leaving her post, but it was a telling one, according to a freedom of information request.
That lengthy memo from Estelle Lo, apparently written last October after The Globe and Mail had revealed the project’s shaky finances, raised a raft of questions about what would happen if real-estate prices fell at the luxury Millennium development and where the city would find the money to back up its loan guarantee if needed.
Every one of the questions she raised before her resignation later that month became subjects of public debate after it was revealed that the $1-billion project had extensive cost overruns, could no longer get financing from Fortress Investment Group – the U.S. hedge fund it had originally borrowed from – and was requiring emergency loans from the city to pay its bills.
“In the worst-case scenario of the city continuing to provide financing in the future if the project faces additional financing shortfalls (due to escalating costs, presale collapses, declining sales value or inability of Fortress to finance or any other reason), how can the city protect itself in recovering these funds?” Ms. Lo asks in her 11-point memo.
April 27th, 2009 at 8:01 am
Canada now on travel advisories from several countries. Oh Oh summer tourism could be a big flop. Thousands are already on the razors edge in BC tourism, this could be the death knell.
TORONTO — Several countries have issued advisories or advice about travelling to Canada after confirmation of six cases of swine flu.
India’s government has issued a travel advisory, telling its citizens to restrict visits to Canada, Mexico, the U.S. and New Zealand to essential travel because of swine flu. The Times of India reports all travellers flying into India from Canada and other countries that have confirmed cases of swine flu will be individually checked for symptoms such as a fever and upper respiratory tract infection.
Media reports from Malaysia say that country’s Health Ministry is advising Malaysians against travelling to Canada, Mexico and selected U.S. states where there are swine flu cases.
Australia’s Foreign Affairs department makes note of the Canadian swine flu cases on its Web site, telling Australian travellers to Canada they should consult a doctor or go to a hospital if they develop flu-like symptoms.
April 27th, 2009 at 7:49 am
Did you need another reason not to buy that time share in Mexico aside from the brain scan? As if the murder count and corruption wasn’t enough to disuade you?
EU issues heatlh warnings agianst EU citizens travelling to Mexico.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/......html?.v=7
April 27th, 2009 at 7:23 am
The larger underpinnings of the economy continue to fall apart. Why anyone could be stupid enough to misunderstand that facts is mind boggling.
http://www.globeinvestor.com/s.....7/GIStory/
The thousands of people in BC who work in and around the travel industry must be shit scared about the swine flu epidemic, this will put thousands out of buisness. Kudo’s to Air Canada for a change for offering a no penalty ticket option to re book a flight after the pandemic is over, if it ever is. A big ” YOU SUCK” to the travel agents association who said yesterday that thet will continue to sell peopel into the epicenter of the epidemic ” because they don’t feel it’s widespread’ , what bullshit. The news out of Mexico is that it’s nation wide and all public events and buildings are being closed as a pre caution. Screw you trave agents, you greedy pigs, you’ll get what you deserve. I hope people spit on you and you realtard friends when you’re standing in the EI line ups after you’ve hit the food bank.
April 27th, 2009 at 2:46 am
Peter Griffin writes at a previous poster: “RE #62:
Take your shameless bait-and-switch comments somewhere else Realtard. With posts like this on your blog, it’s obvious you’re not on the same page as the rest of us.”
Must be nice, having all the answers. All you have to do in life is come on this board and read comments that confirm your world view. Awesome.
April 27th, 2009 at 2:44 am
patriotz writes: “If you had a 100% speculation tax you would never have a housing bubble, because all bubbles are based on expectations of speculative gains, and if you tax away those gains, you will have no speculative buying. Period.”
Marxist. Who decides what is a speculation and what is an investment. Is buying gold an investment? Protection against a devalued currency? Speculation?
But good for you, thinking that you or whatever saviour you vote for would be wise enough to divine the difference.
April 27th, 2009 at 2:36 am
squabbly writes: “your (sic)locked in for 25 years and will be forced into dealing with a realtor (cough choke) and if you need to move who will extort an extortionist ransom from you…”
No. You will not be FORCED to use a realtor. After you check out a dictionary and maybe take some high school equivalency course in English to help you fix your mangled syntax, visit a library and bone up on the concept of “free will.”
Maybe after you’ve learned something you’ll be able to afford to move out of your mom’s place in Rundle and into a non-degenerate part of Cowtown.
April 26th, 2009 at 9:57 pm
“patriotz Says:Reply to this comment
April 26th, 2009 at 9:20 pm
VanBanker:
I’m curious as to why people think the Liberals deserve so
much responsibility for the housing bubble in BC.
Go back and read my post “The Elephant on the Campaign Platform”. If you had a 100% speculation tax you would never have a housing bubble, because all bubbles are based on expectations of speculative gains, and if you tax away those gains, you will have no speculative buying. Period.”
I do agree with you about some sort of capital gains/speculation tax. It would be very difficult to sell though, most people are psychologically invested in the current status quo and will fight it, even if it would actually benefit them in the long run!
April 26th, 2009 at 9:35 pm
The runup in prices is the ndp’s fault. Created an environment where no one wanted to build real estate, caused a shortfall in housing. Continued population increases, the liberals at least tried to keep up enough development to meet the need. The liberals at least created an environment that helped try to meet demand. I thank liberals for making real estate affordable in vancouver now. Prices go up maybe next year.
April 26th, 2009 at 9:29 pm
RE #62:
Take your shameless bait-and-switch comments somewhere else Realtard. With posts like this on your blog, it’s obvious you’re not on the same page as the rest of us:
“The city is so brilliant it makes living in such small quarters livable. So we are all hearing about how the economy is dwindling and you can safely say the condo market here in Vancouver is now a buyer’s one.”
P.S. Could you put a little more advertising all over your site – what, your real estate job not paying enough these days?
April 26th, 2009 at 9:20 pm
VanBanker:
I’m curious as to why people think the Liberals deserve so much responsibility for the housing bubble in BC.
Go back and read my post “The Elephant on the Campaign Platform”. If you had a 100% speculation tax you would never have a housing bubble, because all bubbles are based on expectations of speculative gains, and if you tax away those gains, you will have no speculative buying. Period.
Gordo is a professional RE developer and he knows this just as well as I do.
The Liberals have been in charge of this province for 8 years. They and their allies (and yes that includes Gordo’s brother and the rest of the usual suspects, and the media with the honourable exception of the Georgia Strait) have done everything they could to pump this RE bubble. They are entirely responsible for it and they should be held entirely responsible for the outcome of its collapse.
And I never claimed the NDP would have done anything differently. But they haven’t been running the province for the last 8 years. They are not responsible. The Liberals are.
April 26th, 2009 at 9:07 pm
“patriotz Says:Reply to this comment
April 26th, 2009 at 8:44 pm
realpaul:
Let Gordo take the rap as he richly deserves and the NDP can have another 4 years to come up with a more relevant platform next time.”
I’m curious as to why people think the Liberals deserve so much responsibility for the housing bubble in BC. It is the federal government that: increased amortizations; lowered down payment requirements; and sponsors residential mortgages through CMHC.
What would the NDP have done differently if they were in power? At least the Liberals brought in the carbon tax.
April 26th, 2009 at 8:44 pm
realpaul:
Why the NDP hasn’t been throwing the truth in thier face is a bit surreal, it seems like the NDP is totally broken down.
The NDP can’t even acknowledge that there is a housing bubble in BC. As I said, that’s the elephant on the campaign platform. RE is the only thing left driving the BC economy and when that goes down it’s lights out.
It’s clear to me that the NDP campaign strategy was drafted last year prior to the recession. It’s basically “axe the tax” plus the usual tweaking of social programs. It’s really just rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic, when what they really should have been doing for the last couple of years was pointing at the iceberg ahead. Then when it hit they would have had some credibility.
I don’t know whether the NDP really wants to lose or it’s just running one of its usual uninspired campaigns, but I think it would be best for them and for the province if they lose. If by some chance they won people would be blaming the upcoming economic debacle on them for the next 50 years, and it’s not their fault. Let Gordo take the rap as he richly deserves and the NDP can have another 4 years to come up with a more relevant platform next time.
Vancouver Condo News & Links | Vancouver Condo Blog Says:
April 26th, 2009 at 8:36 pm
[...] Huge List of Economy Links From One Of My Favorite Blogs – Vancouver Condo Info [...]
April 26th, 2009 at 8:30 pm
realestatecrack:
I believe the rules for financing a mortgage change dramatically when you hit 65 years old.
I’m not a banking expert, but I think that would be illegal. You cannot discriminate in lending based on the borrower’s age, only ability to repay. Of course if someone is only getting CPP+OAS that factors into ability to repay.
The other issue, of renewing a mortgage say 30 years after purchase when the borrower is 70, is a non-issue. By that time almost all the principal will have been paid off and the balance will be way under the value of the collateral. Also if the original loan was CMHC insured that will still be in effect.
Bottom line is that the reason banks make mortgage loans in the first place is to get the payments, and if you keep making the payments, they’re happy, They don’t want your house.
April 26th, 2009 at 8:27 pm
“Inventory Says:Reply to this comment
April 23rd, 2009 at 11:39 pm
REBGV SFH+TH+APT Unit sales April 1995 to 2009
Year SOLD LISTED ACTIVE GROSS YOY% MOI AVG$
2009 2042 3518 15417 $1,126,214,353 -38% 7.55 $551,525
**April 22, 2009 ”
If Inventory’s numbers are correct, then it looks like we’ve probably hit the Sales peak for 2009 in April, and things should plateau and then drop for the rest of the year, which prices dropping as well once the MOI ratio gets high enough again, probably in fall.
I’ll tell you though, there all of these guys at my office trying to push me “Why don’t you buy now? We’ve hit the bottom, this is the best chance to buy!” I tried to explain the spring bounce but their eyes just glaze over, people don’t like to have their “bubble bursted” (ha!).
April 26th, 2009 at 8:05 pm
ealestatecrack Says:Reply to this comment
April 24th, 2009 at 5:46 pm
Anonymous:
#38 anon, Quick query to you or VanBanker ( anyone?). I believe the rules for financing a mortgage change dramatically when you hit 65 years old. You can no longer get a conventional financing ( don’t blow a gasket I ‘m just asking). What happens to persons who are say 40 and step into a 35 year amortization and make thier regular mortgage payments? They will still owe a considerable sum but will no longer qualify for financing for the approx ten years of mortgage left on the property?”
Good question, but sorry, I only do construction/development loans so I don’t know anything about residential mortgage financing. I will try to find out though.
April 26th, 2009 at 7:22 pm
http://www.economist.com/opini.....d=13492469
You have been warned.
April 26th, 2009 at 2:04 pm
The NDP does NOT want to be elected. They are very aware of what the future is going to bring and don’t want to be in power when the SHTF as they may get blamed for it.
You will probably see the NDP push alot harder 4 years from now.
April 26th, 2009 at 2:00 pm
Not everyone is being hoodwinked by the BS of the MSM, especially in the US where they have a much broader platform on which to observe and critique facts from lies.
We are looking at the reality of counting 24 million unemployed/underemployed citizens in the US, the cloak is slowly being lifted.
“You would think that with only 18 percent of Americans having some confidence in their banking system that the media would be shedding a more critical eye on the banks. That is not case. And as I will show with the following four graphs, nearly 2 years into this financial crisis, the vast majority of Americans have not seen any noticeable help. A country with 24 million unemployed and underemployed citizens and we are asked to bailout the perpetrators of one of histories greatest debt bubbles.”
http://www.mybudget360.com/200.....s-reserve/
Although it seems pleasent enough todat from my perch at a population cafe, I know that a great proportion of these people around me are ‘in the shit’. I am over hearing a lot of chatter of new self employment schemes and lot of talk about economic concerns. I just wonder about how many of these Diva shitheads is on thier last few weeks of EI. I expect to see at least a few of these over dressed babes and metro sex boys on Craigslist soon selling ’special massage’ It’s sounding more like crunch time is fast approaching in Van Queasy.
April 26th, 2009 at 12:13 pm
crabman:
#54 crab, we haven’t been getting ANY unemployment or economic numbers since the advent of the Liberal Party’s push for re-election in BC. Why the NDP hasn’t been throwing the truth in thier face is a bit surreal, it seems like the NDP is totally broken down. There is no spirited opposition even though there would be plenty of popprtunities to rally whole towns of unemployed miners, loggers, fisheries and tourism people who have been out of work for months and even years in the cases of mill workers .
The screaming protests of angry villagers that a decent campaign organizor could easily manifest is strangely absent. Even so, I think that more real information will be allowed to leak out after the LIB’s get another four year stranglehold on the government. Too bad the NDP are fighting like girls in this election because there is certaily a lot of fodder for a good fire. I think the masses of hitherto silent unemployed is relativley strange all the same.
Whoever gets the cat bird seat will have to deal with the very real issue of rapid growth in the unemployment of rural and increasingly urban dwellers in BC. I agree with the comment the the denial syndrome will abate when the bulk of EI cheques starts to run out in the late summer.
April 26th, 2009 at 11:02 am
Check out the unemployment graph for Oregon, then compare it to the one for BC. They look very similar, with Oregon being a few months ahead of BC. If we follow Oregon’s path, we could be at 11% unemployment in a few months!!!
Oregon:
http://www.qualityinfo.org/pubs/pressrel/0409.pdf
BC:
http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/pubs/lfs/lfs0903.pdf
April 26th, 2009 at 11:00 am
Looks a little like a little dead cat bounce in the market, probably last for a couple of months stimulated by significant drop in the price of money to try and stimulate the last few suckers to buy. BUT WAIT, I bet you by this October, November when the UI benefits run out for those out of work. TIMBER!!!!!! The next leg down within 6 months.
April 26th, 2009 at 10:26 am
“The worst thing for the world economy would be to assume the worst is over”
The economist on the idea of a quick global economic turnaround.
http://tinyurl.com/dafmc
April 25th, 2009 at 10:52 pm
Watching the tech wreck. It’s the gift that keeps on giving. Think of the tremendous job opps for new talent when all the aged dead wood of Diva’s is cut away.
http://www.techcrunch.com/layoffs/
April 25th, 2009 at 11:57 am
If Vancouver real estate is to follow the path of the US, take a look at this Palm Springs web page. They no longer only report YOY changes….now it looks like WOW stats are showing up which stands for both “week over week” and WOW look at those price drops! I can’t wait to see WOW drops in the Vancouver area.
http://www.trulia.com/real_est.....alifornia/