Friday Free-for-all!
Alrighty, time for our end of the week news round up and open topic discussion. Here are a few stories I’ve noticed lately:
-BOC: Economy contracted 7.3% in first 3 months of 2009
-Low interest rates revive Vancouver rental market
-Economy blamed for shorter camping season
-Consumers see glimmer of hope for economy
-Canadian have more home equity than Americans
-Canada prepared to offer auto giants $6 billion
-Vancouvers affordability problem
-Recession weary consumers crank up booze consumption
-Bank of Canada prepares to fight record slump
-Hope of USA spring bounce gets a setback
-Critics stress out over US bank stress tests
So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!
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April 23rd, 2009 at 11:26 pm
Back a few years ago, I was contemplating a move out to New York as I was getting calls from head hunters.
It seemed like I could make double what I made in Vancouver for virtually the same job.
I mean the job requirements and duties were an exact match as what I was doing in Vancouver (working for a financial company that trades energy products).
In the end, due to a combination of not wanting to be apart from my girlfriend (now fiance) and people telling me Manhattan costs of living would wipe out my salary gains, I didn’t pursue it any further.
Today I was checking out the rents and prices in Manhattan.
Chelsea area to be exact.
I find rents to be way higher than over here. But on the purchasing side, it’s not that far off.
Rent for 750sf is around $2500 and up.
However, I can purchase a new place for $500s.
My friend owns a 740sf condo in Yaletown worth almost $500K, but he can only rent it out for $1400!
So Manhattan prices being expensive is justified because it would cost just as much to rent.
Vancouver is another story altogether.
This is just one example of how out of whack we are.
April 23rd, 2009 at 11:39 pm
REBGV SFH+TH+APT Unit sales April 1995 to 2009
Year SOLD LISTED ACTIVE GROSS YOY% MOI AVG$
1995 1712 4944 19298 $555,488,381 11.27 $324,467
1996 2715 5268 19374 $799,778,368 59% 7.14 $294,577
1997 2987 5932 18969 $865,923,335 10% 6.35 $289,897
1998 1788 4837 20578 $511,341,151 -40% 11.51 $285,984
1999 2101 4054 16958 $593,594,877 18% 8.07 $282,529
2000 1813 3682 15823 $542,861,195 -14% 8.73 $299,427
2001 2314 3726 14921 $654,817,421 28% 6.45 $282,980
2002 3877 5457 12275 $1,172,552,258 68% 3.17 $302,438
2003 4302 4302 10213 $1,027,663,154 11% 2.37 $321,949
2004 4215 5864 9913 $1,591,703,199 -2% 2.35 $377,628
2005 4174 5933 11638 $1,723,152,448 -1% 2.79 $412,830
2006 3434 4598 9638 $1,726,772,292 -19% 2.81 $502,845
2007 3481 5770 12135 $1,964,590,038 1% 3.49 $564,375
2008 3308 7264 15216 $2,035,426,921 -5% 4.6 $615,304
2009 2042 3518 15417 $1,126,214,353 -38% 7.55 $551,525
**April 22, 2009
April 23rd, 2009 at 11:47 pm
Canadians continue to have more than two-thirds more equity in their home than Americans, according to a new survey.
The study for the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals shows Canadian homeowners have, on average, 72% equity in their house, compared with 43% for Americans.
Well of course they do. The US is two years ahead of us in the bust. US home equity looked pretty good two years ago too.
That said, we are not going to see the degree of equity decline Canada wide that the US has, because the bubble nation-wide in Canada has been smaller than in the US. But BC is, as always, a very different story.
Another thing to watch for is how “average home equity” is calculated. Is that the average of the % for each house, i.e. (Σ(RE valuation – debt)/(RE valuation))/n, or is it (Σ RE valuation – Σ debt)/(Σ RE valuation). The latter figure will fall much more, because property values are so skewed toward BC, Alberta, and Toronto.
April 23rd, 2009 at 11:49 pm
When you can rent out a place for as much as the mortgage is is when you should buy a house.
Rents should essentially be the same as a mortgage payment in a stable market. The only difference here in vancouver?
You need to put down forty to fifty percent as a deposit, when it should be closer to 20-30.
Find out how much a place could rent for. With a comparable Mortgage payment, how much credit you could get. Add to that credit your down deposit. And that is what a house should be worth.
April 24th, 2009 at 12:05 am
Oh and the other thing is interest from the mortgage of your primary residence is tax deductible in the US.
Another bonus.
April 24th, 2009 at 12:09 am
when you buy
a down payment is required
you roll the risk/reward dice
you pay all taxes and maintenance
your locked in for 25 years and will be forced into dealing with a realtor (cough choke) and if you need to move
who will extort an extortionist ransom from you
when you rent
there is no down payment required (small dd)
a very short cheap to break lease is expected
you have no maintenance or taxes to pay
your free to move at will
and you never have to go within 100 yards of a realtor
by the last line alone..renting should come at a premium
so really it should cost more to rent than buy
April 24th, 2009 at 1:12 am
Good points on rental value vs. selling prices. Things can get out of whack temporarily, but they always correct to fundamentals.
How many other things can you think of that RENT for less than the SELL for over the long term?
April 24th, 2009 at 1:27 am
Bears are only whining kids who are jealous of home owners.
Be position and start saving enough for down payment to buy you a fortune in RE.
Vancouver RE has never failed anyone who joined the game in the past 40 yrs; each minor adjustment will be followed by an even bigger boom in RE. Don’t forget Van RE is mainly supported by Chink population. Today I passed by six houses along 49 and each of them are sold like a flash.
April 24th, 2009 at 3:18 am
Franco, “be position”? WTF?
April 24th, 2009 at 3:34 am
delete #this comment. Completely unacceptable for a blog of this calibre.
April 24th, 2009 at 7:29 am
No matter what never ever forget to “be position” lol!
April 24th, 2009 at 7:39 am
Bilbo Bloggins:
Rent for 750sf is around $2500 and up.
However, I can purchase a new place for $500s.
My friend owns a 740sf condo in Yaletown worth almost $500K, but he can only rent it out for $1400!
So Manhattan prices being expensive is justified because it would cost just as much to rent
Curent Manhatten prices are not justified, they will fall as the recent NYT article posted previously has noted. They are just overpriced, not absurdly overpriced as in Vancouver.
When calculating rental equivalence you cannot use the current historically low rates. They will last only as long as the economy is in the dumpster and asset prices are declining. You must use at least 6%.
Really condos are worth at most 120x rent, and that’s for a well-constructed well-located building. Not the crapboxes that have been thrown up all over Vancouver during the bubble.
Houses in Vancouver were selling for 100x rent in the mid-80′s. That’s right, houses.
April 24th, 2009 at 8:15 am
Vancouver IS adjusting the sell/rent ratio:
http://news1130.com/news/local.....31222_9244
Tenants in Seafield Apartments in Vancouver’s West End have been handed a 38 per cent rent increase.
Funny situation given the current economic turmoil.
April 24th, 2009 at 8:38 am
CZ_:
Vancouver IS adjusting the sell/rent ratio:
Those are purpose built rentals.
When we talk about price/rent on this forum, we are talking about the price and rent for the same house or condo. Not comparisons of a condo against a purpose built rental. And condo rents are falling, as many posters have pointed out.
I notice that, in the best “journalistic” tradition, news1130 gives a % amount for the rent increase but doesn’t bother to tell us what they were paying in the first place. So we have no way of judging whether the old rents were really below market.
April 24th, 2009 at 9:28 am
The Canadian economy shrank by 7.3% in the first quarter of 2009? A depression is considered to be a contraction of 10% or more over the course of a year? WOW! I cannot believe that the general public is not more alarmed about this. Talk about denial at the maximum.
April 24th, 2009 at 10:05 am
Brittanny: I’m beginning to think the general public doesn’t know what you’re talking about. Interest rates are at 3%, not 7.3%, silly…
April 24th, 2009 at 10:08 am
I believe that was 7.3% annualized, so an actual shrinkage of (presumably) of 1.825% for the quarter. Someone correct me if I am wrong.
April 24th, 2009 at 10:10 am
RE #14 : Yes, isnt it interesting how they (media) somehow “forget, or over look, or got distracted, or dont have the information yet, or not aware of, or felt it was not important” .
Sheesh..no wonder I think scott paper is a far better paper – Not pre soiled with “fertilizer”. (pardon my double speak)
April 24th, 2009 at 10:16 am
Not so many jobs from a Vancouver perspective, but this must hit hard in Kamloops:
http://www.bclocalnews.com/business/43584242.html
A call centre that outsources for American Express is laying off 240 in Kamloops.
From the story:
“Convergys is also struggling with a recession-related drop in call volume at its call centers, said Chairman Philip Odeen.”
April 24th, 2009 at 10:39 am
And so the GESTAPO Tactics begin against the citizens of Vancouver. Remember we discussed how Olympic venues and the IOC overlords would be ringed with razor wire, barking dogs and shoot to kill nazi cops and IOC mercenary’s. It’s already started. I will now forecast the first ‘precautionary arrests’ to begin very soon, we will definatley see the community of the protest movement and DTES culled. Rememeber, the court houses will be closed ‘for security reasons’ as are all public buildings, if you are arrested expect to stay in jail for weeks, even months, before you can see a magistrate. There will be a huge backlog of detainees so your jail time could be extended indefinatley. NAZICOUVER here we come.
“METRO VANCOUVER — When 73-year-old Peter Scott reads something he doesn’t like in a newspaper, he cuts the offending article out, stuffs it into an envelope, scribbles his opinions on the outside in black felt pen and mails it off to the object of his ire.
Recipients have been prime ministers and premiers (all of them, he says), MPs and MLAs and not a few mayors and councillors. His notes on the outside are a way of getting attention.
For the most part, he says, he’s simply ignored. Once in a while, someone will write back. But never in all of his many years of writing biting notes has he ever had the reaction he got this week from the police protecting the Vancouver Organizing Committee for the 2010 Winter Olympics.
http://www.vancouversun.com/sp.....story.html
April 24th, 2009 at 1:05 pm
realpaul:
#20 realpaul, Right you are again. I expect we’ll see the same gun barrel democracy that the Australians experianced during the Sydney games. Reporters were roughed up after shadowing IOC ‘ thugs in limo’s’ from the airport straight to whore houses and areas known for young male prostitution. The hotels and resorts were quickly surrounded by the National police and the IOC’s own mercenary’s creating a ‘guilt free zone’ where employees were intimidated into silence. The story had been that apparently the IOC ‘overlords’ as you call them, had a history of whoreing and disregarding the laws of any country they had bought and paid for. The Aussie journalists provided the proof.
They ( the IOC dirtbags) have a history of exploiting thier positions and are hugely corrupt, living like kings off the backs of the Olympic movement.
April 24th, 2009 at 1:38 pm
Greetings,
Anecdote.
Yesterday as wife and I were driving home after work (we carpool) we suddenly saw Linda Reid, MLA for Richmond standing in the corner of Cambie and No 4 road. She was waiving to the drivers with signs to vote for her.
As I do not know what I want to vote, we screeched the old minivan to a halt and I got off to ask here a question. Wife thought (yet again) that I am very weird…
So I approached Linda reid and we had the folowing exchange:
-”Hello” says her, extending her hand
-”Hello, I am arit, I do not know who I want to vote for and I would like to ask you a question”.
-”Please Do”
-”What about house prices: Where will they go and is that OK?”
-” Well, it’s a very difficult topic… Houses are very expensive but they have dropped 10%”
-”Will they drop more or go higher?”
-”Well, economists are divided on that topic, hard to say. Maybe up maybe down. Do you own in richmond?”
-” No, I believe it will crash 50%”
-”Really?”
-”Yes, thank you good luck!”
-”Thanks Bye”
-”Bye”
Regards
arit
April 24th, 2009 at 1:45 pm
The FoRenter desperation is reaching a fevered pitch at the moment. I feel for all you I really do but stop trying to drag other people into your FoRenter misery. We all get it ok. You lost your chance to own in Vancouver. With every day that goes by the boat appears to be sailing further and further away. You keep hoping the market will crash and you can finally be released from the FoRenter chains. And the market continues to rise and you continue to lose hope. It’s a cycle. The only way out is to buy or to leave.
April 24th, 2009 at 1:58 pm
#23 Executive Summary: Buy now or be priced out forever!
Good luck with that theory.
April 24th, 2009 at 2:00 pm
recent home buyers are now
priced in forever..
April 24th, 2009 at 2:35 pm
thefixisin:
#21 Fixisin, don’t forget that the IOC thugs are mostly third world dictatorship reps who come out of the most vicious and brutal regimes in the world. Most IOC members travel under the auspices of diplomatic passport otherwise they would be subject to arrest. Among the IOC memebers you have rapists, baby killers, genocide freaks, mass murders, the corrupt sons, daughters and relatives of the crown assholes of the world. Most of the IOC member country reps are form countries which have the most brutal record of civil, human, womans rights and institutional torture and political imprisonment.
They use the lily white whores like Dick Pound as a front man because he’s willing to whore himself as long as he gets to wallow in the trough splatter. He doesn’t get the insiders largesse so he realy is the worst kind of collaborator, the kind the looks away when the baby’s are getting thier limbs chopped off so he can say he didn’t see anything. His masters throw him a bone and he dips it in the blood of millions of dead babies. What a great Canadian.
We think of the Olympics in terms of little Jane and little Mikey at the pool running and swimming and jumping. What the reality is is that you’ve got a mafia of thugs and warlords creaming off billions of dollars and travelling outside the bloodbath country’s without fear of criminal charges because they are IOC rep ‘officials’.
If you buy an Olympic ticket you are supporting the rape of women , the murder of children, the massaacre of populations and the train wrecked economies the IOC misery leaves behind. Hope you can sleep fine knowing what your money really supports.
April 24th, 2009 at 2:47 pm
Olympimess:
Re post 26
do you have examples of IOC members who are baby killers?
I too am disgusted by the commonly held image of IOC fat cats living off the Olympics (yet they probably couldn’t run up a flight of stairs) but I was not aware they were such villans.
Please provide some proof to go along with your statement.
April 24th, 2009 at 2:50 pm
Unemployment numbers still skyrocketing, getting worse, the press is obviously lying.
Mass Layoffs Continue
Just so we’re clear on the numbers here, the latest report this morning from the Labor Department on Mass Layoffs is important to watch:
Employers took 2,933 mass layoff actions in March that resulted in the separation of 299,388 workers, seasonally adjusted, as measured by new filings for unemployment insurance benefits during the month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported to- day. Each action involved at least 50 persons from a single employer. The number of mass layoff events in March increased by 164 from the prior month, while the number of associated initial claims increased by 3,911. Over the year, the number of mass layoff events increased by 1,348, and the number of associated initial claims increased by 137,891. In March, the manufacturing sector experienced 1,259 mass layoff events, seasonally adjusted, resulting in 155,909 initial claims. Over the month, mass layoff events in manufacturing increased by 24, and initial claims increased by 3,291. (See table 1.) Layoff events and initial claims rose to their highest levels on record, with data available back to 1995; events in the manufacturing sector also reached its highest level.
During the 16 months from December 2007 through March 2009, the total number of mass layoff events (seasonally adjusted) was 31,414, and the number of initial claims (seasonally adjusted) was 3,227,201. (December 2007 was the start of a recession as designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research.)
The national unemployment rate was 8.5 percent in March 2009, sea- sonally adjusted, up from 8.1 percent the prior month and from 5.1 per- cent a year earlier. In March, total nonfarm payroll employment de- creased by 663,000 over the month and by 4,795,000 from a year earlier.
April 24th, 2009 at 2:52 pm
Hovering:
#27 it’s called ‘Google’, do your own DD if you’re that far out of the loop.
April 24th, 2009 at 2:55 pm
Most IOC “officials” are decendants of the original kings of the canonite empire which secretly ruled the world behind a cloak of darkness for many years. Over the years these overlords have evolved from running world expositions to running world wide sporting events as cover for their secret iron fisted grip on world affairs. Ocasionally the cover is lifted on various blogs such as this one but it’s rare indeed.
April 24th, 2009 at 3:05 pm
olympimess,
while most of us agree that the IOC are a corrupt bunch of autocrats, you can’t just say “google” as proof. One can find any kind of evidence, pro or con, on the “interwebz”…
April 24th, 2009 at 3:44 pm
read on:
#31 I get the impression you live under a rock, bit many Canadians do. I’ll still insist that you do your own homework so that you can learn something.
Lesson 1) Google ” most violent regimes of the 20th century. Now ask yourself wether any of these countries have IOC membership and why. Include any information you can glean from your preliminary sweep as to some of the names of the dictators and thier supporters.
When you complete the initial research post your conclusions and I will give you a response and some additional guidance.
Good hunting, enjoy the project
April 24th, 2009 at 3:47 pm
IOCBloodBath:
#30 You’re confused, we are not discussing Scientology.
April 24th, 2009 at 3:58 pm
The new police state is forming
Guilty of Being Poor
by Eric Ruder / April 23rd, 2009
The jailers of the 19th century — even in the pre-Civil War South — largely abandoned the practice of imprisoning people for falling into debt as counterproductive and ultimately barbaric. In the 1970s and ’80s, the U.S. Supreme Court affirmed that incarcerating people who can’t pay fines because of poverty violates the U.S. Constitution.
Apparently, though, some states and county jails never got the memo. Welcome to the debtors’ prisons of the 21st century.
“Edwina Nowlin, a poor Michigan resident, was ordered to reimburse a juvenile detention center $104 a month for holding her 16-year-old son,” the New York Times wrote in an editorial.
http://dissidentvoice.org/2009.....eing-poor/
April 24th, 2009 at 4:05 pm
If anyone has wondered why the market could appear to being up, down and sideways all at the same time, read this interesting parellel from California. Looking at thier past could be a very clear vision of our future.
http://www.doctorhousingbubble.....rms-unite/
April 24th, 2009 at 4:55 pm
Everyone,
No wonder everyone is getting wrong information. Try using Yahoo. Not Google.
April 24th, 2009 at 4:57 pm
olimpiness:
“#31 I get the impression you live under a rock, bit many Canadians do. I’ll still insist that you do your own homework so that you can learn something.”
——-
dude, I was agreeing with you – chill. I was just pointing out that one of the necessary ingredients in an argument is evidence. if you just make statements without backing them up, and tell yr readers to find the evidence for themselves, then you aren’t making an argument, you’re just stating opinions. basic rules of rhetoric.
April 24th, 2009 at 4:57 pm
Buy now and you will have a mortgage forever. You will also have negative equity for most of it.
April 24th, 2009 at 5:16 pm
Buy now and you will have a mortgage forever. You will also have negative equity for most of it.
yes but you will be a home owner!
it don’t get better’n that!
April 24th, 2009 at 5:46 pm
Anonymous:
#38 anon, Quick query to you or VanBanker ( anyone?). I believe the rules for financing a mortgage change dramatically when you hit 65 years old. You can no longer get a conventional financing ( don’t blow a gasket I ‘m just asking). What happens to persons who are say 40 and step into a 35 year amortization and make thier regular mortgage payments? They will still owe a considerable sum but will no longer qualify for financing for the approx ten years of mortgage left on the property?
Lets say we have another recession and equity values again fall. Will all these homeowners again fall short of financing. Is the new price regime just a set up for a perpetual motion machine ‘o failure?
April 24th, 2009 at 6:08 pm
Hovering:
#27 Hovering, heres the entire list , a dogs breakfast, a cornucopia of murderous regimes who all suck off the IOC teat. BTW these are the assholes who demanded and gotan outrageous package of perks from VANOC. Sweet dreams. The dates are indicitive of when they joined the IOC, and started recieving the benefits one assumes. Of course not all of the nations listed are war criminals but you cannot miss the ones that are.
AFGHANISTAN (11 March 1991) ALBANIA (26 January 1993) ALGERIA (Jul. 1964/Nov. 1965) ANGOLA (26 October 1982)* ARGENTINA (Before November 1961)* AUSTRALIA (Before November 1961) AUSTRIA (Oct. 1962/Jun. 1964) AZERBAIJAN (27 January 1998) BAHAMAS (29 January 1979) BANGLADESH (29 October 1982) BARBADOS (18 December 1985)* BELGIUM (Before November 1961) BELIZE (22 September 1995) BENIN (23 October 1986)* BRAZIL (Before November 1961) BULGARIA (Oct. 1967/Dec. 1969) CAMEROON (Nov. 1971/Nov. 1973)* CANADA (Before November 1961) CAPE VERDE (20 August 1984)* CHILE (Before November 1961)* CHINA (Before November 1961)* COLOMBIA (Oct. 1967/Dec. 1969) COMOROS (08 February 2000) CONGO (Nov. 1961/Sep. 1962) COOK ISLANDS (21 January 2006) COSTA RICA (28 February 1975) COTE D’IVOIRE (Before November 1961) CROATIA (24 December 1992)* CUBA (Before November 1961) CYPRUS (05 December 1977) CZECH REPUBLIC (20 June 2005) DEMOCRATIC PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (31 October 1978) DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF TIMOR-LESTE (19 October 2005) DENMARK (Before November 1961) DJIBOUTI (6 january 2006) DOMINICA (21 September 1999)* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC (Before November 1961)* ECUADOR (Before November 1961)* EGYPT (Oct. 1969/Nov. 1971) EL SALVADOR (16 February 1993) ERITREA (12 November 1993) ESTONIA (10 March 1992) ETHIOPIA (05 March 1976) FIJI (09 July 1974) FINLAND (Before November 1961)* FRANCE (Before November 1961) GABON (26 October 1977) GAMBIA (30 August 1985) GEORGIA (09 July 1993)* GERMANY (Before November 1961)* GHANA (Before November 1961)* GREECE (Oct. 1962/Jun. 1964) GUATEMALA (Dec. 1965/Oct. 1967) GUINEA (01 May 1982) GUINEA-BISSAU (26 January 1984) GUYANA (20 July 1977) HAITI (23 March 1976) ICELAND (Oct. 1962/Jun. 1964)* INDIA (Before November 1961)* INDONESIA (Oct. 1962/Jun. 1964)* IRAN, Islamic Republic of (03 June 1975) IRAQ (Oct. 1969/Nov. 1971) IRELAND (07 November 1978) ISRAEL (Before November 1961) ITALY (Before November 1961) JAMAICA (Oct. 1967/Dec. 1969)* JAPAN (Before November 1961) JORDAN (06 April 1975) KAZAKHSTAN (24 March 2005)* KENYA (Nov. 1971/Nov. 1973) KUWAIT (13 November 1974) LEBANON (Oct. 1962/Jun. 1964) LIBYAN ARAB JAMAHIRIYA (11 March 1974)* MADAGASCAR (Dec. 1965/Oct. 1967) MALAYSIA (Jul. 1964/Nov. 1965) MALDIVES (20 May 1987) MALTA (Oct. 1969/Nov. 1971) MAURITANIA (Before November 1961)* MAURITIUS (Oct. 1969/Nov. 1971) MEXICO (Before November 1961) MONACO (Before November 1961) MOROCCO (Before November 1961) MOZAMBIQUE (08 April 1981) MYANMAR (07 June 1988) NAMIBIA (25 April 2001) NETHERLANDS (Before November 1961) NEW ZEALAND (Nov. 1961/Sep. 1962) NICARAGUA (17 November 1977)* NIGERIA (Nov. 1971/Nov. 1973)* NORWAY (Before November 1961) OMAN (16 November 1982) PAKISTAN (Before November 1961) PANAMA (Oct. 1967/Sep. 1969) PAPUA NEW GUINEA (10 April 2006)* PERU (Dec. 1965/Oct. 1967) PHILIPPINES (Oct. 62/Jun. 1964) POLAND (Before November 1961)* PORTUGAL (Oct. 1969/Nov. 1971) QATAR (20 July 1976)* REPUBLIC OF KOREA (Before November 1961) ROMANIA (Before November 1961)* RUSSIAN FEDERATION (Before Nov. 1961) SAINT LUCIA (14 September 1992) SAMOA (10 April 1978) SAUDI ARABIA (14 June 1978) SENEGAL (Oct. 1967/Sep. 1969) SERBIA (23 May 2005) SEYCHELLES (27 February 1979) SIERRA LEONE (19 April 1974) SINGAPORE (Dec. 1965/Oct. 1967) SLOVENIA (16 June 1994) SOLOMON ISLANDS (11 May 1982) SOMALIA (10 July 1974)* SOUTH AFRICA (Oct. 1967/Sep. 1969)* SPAIN (Before Nov. 1961)* SRI LANKA (Jun. 76/Jan. 1977) SUDAN (26 August 1974) SURINAM (21 January 1977) SWEDEN (Jul. 1964/Nov. 1965) SWITZERLAND (Before Nov. 1961) SYRIAN ARAB REPUBLIC (Oct.1969/Nov. 1971)* THAILAND (Before Nov. 1961) TOGO (22 October 1975) TONGA (03 January 1974) TRINIDAD & TOBAGO (Oct. 1967/Sep. 1969)* TUNISIA (Before Nov. 1961)* TURKEY (Nov. 1961/Sep. 1962)* UKRAINE (Nov. 1961/Sep. 1962) UNITED ARAB EMIRATES (02 June 1976)* UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN & NORTHERN IRELAND (Before Nov. 1961)* UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA (Oct. 1967/Sep. 1969)* UNITED STATES OF AMERICA (Before Nov. 1961) URUGUAY (Before Nov. 1961)* VENEZUELA, Bolivarian Rep. of (Oct. 1962/Jun. 1964) VIET NAM (Before Nov. 1961) YEMEN (22 May 1960)
April 24th, 2009 at 6:14 pm
BTW,, I understand the IOC has in excess of 1000 ‘delegates’ arriving in Vancouver who will require pampering and free everything from Vanoc ( courtesy of the taxpayer). Don’t forget that this 1000 are only the delegates , they all arrive with an entourage. The bills to the taxpayer will be obscene.
I don’t know how this string got started , but thank you, it’s really infuriating.
April 24th, 2009 at 8:37 pm
@patriotz
The website seafieldapartments.com shows currently what they’re paying. $1350 for a 2 bedroom for people have been there a decade paying standard yearly increases.
April 24th, 2009 at 8:51 pm
#15 & 17: re: GDP drop of 7.3%
Stats Canada will not be publishing the real numbers for several months. The 7.3 figure is what the BoC estimates for the quarter. I can’t find any information on the BoC site on how they come up with that estimate.
The BoC report is here: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/.....pril09.pdf
It contains:
Real GDP (quarter-over-quarter percentage change) = 7.3%
April 24th, 2009 at 10:30 pm
If you do not buy a home soon you will be subject to the rule of the IOC overlord who are here to take your women and children away.
April 25th, 2009 at 7:38 am
#44 GDP drop of 7.3%
If you read the note of the chart from that BOC report, it says 7.3% is annualized rate. But still it is very big number.
April 25th, 2009 at 8:46 am
Just got back from Vancouver, some observations:
Talking to more and more people who agree prices will drop. Psychology is changing.
Of course amongst the people who agree prices will go down, they still can’t do the math and are not selling any extra properties.
And the number of people who blame the drop in prices on global economy is still higher than those who blame too high prices themselves.
But I do see things slowly changing. I figure by the time the olympics rolls only the greatest of the greater fools will be still hoping for a turn around.
April 25th, 2009 at 11:37 am
Was checking out the rentals, the landlords are starting to add some bling bling. Just an observation.
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/apa/
What could the reasons for this be?
April 25th, 2009 at 11:39 am
Oops. : $850 WOW 2 WEEKS FREE RENT 1BDR –
Half month rent free if you sign the agreement before April 27th,2009
Bright and spacious one bedroom with large balcony available at AZURE ESTATES.
April 25th, 2009 at 11:49 am
Uh the global spin doctors, you gotta love ‘em. What part of the untrue is less true than an actual lie? The RCMP for example did a wonderful job at spinning out an outrageous lie regarding the murder of Robert Djikanski when they offered this,
” We did’t intend to lie, we regretfully mis-stated the facts”. Bwahahahahahahah, if it wasn’t so pathetic, it would be really funny.
Now we have a story in the Globe and Mail ( admittedly not the sharpest tool on the bench) informing us that ‘the worst of the recession is over”. Don’t you just love the way the the rats, the whores, the pimps and false advertisers come out to fling thier shit around in between factaul economic numbers being published. My guess is that they think that you and I have a memory which can’t function outside a 48 hour bubble.
The fact is the realstate market swoon globally ( and locally) is accelerating, the unemployment numbers are accellerating, buisness failures are accelerating, bankruptcy stats in all categories are skyrocketing, foreclosures are accelerating, banks are failing, governments have lowered intrest rates to zero and have no more ammunition except massive indebtedness campaigns which will sink us all into an abysss of agregious taxes. But somehow, in spite of that the Globe see’s fit to publish a ‘happy’ story. It’s all a campaign to sell ‘optimism and confidence’, what trash.
What this really means is that if the governments can’t talk you into spending furiously than all thier little schemes are sunk. But with immenant job loss who’s prepared to take such a leap of faith. Not me thats for sure.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Finance chiefs from the G7 powers said on Friday the global economy may be past the worst phase of a recession although recovery was not yet assured, and they pledged to make sure that big financial firms are sound.
Group of Seven finance ministers and central bankers said after a meeting that economic activity should begin to recover later this year. However, they said the outlook remained weak and there was a risk that the global economy may still worsen.
“We are right to be somewhat encouraged, but we would be wrong to conclude that we are close to emerging from the darkness that descended on the global economy early last fall,” U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said in a statement.
It was a less dire assessment than the G7 finance officials delivered at their last gathering in February, when they warned that the severe downturn would persist through most of 2009 and made no mention of promising signs of stability.
“Recent data suggest that the pace of decline in our economies has slowed and some signs of stabilization are emerging,” the G7 said in a closing communique.”
http://www.globeinvestor.com/s.....7/GIStory/
April 25th, 2009 at 11:57 am
If Vancouver real estate is to follow the path of the US, take a look at this Palm Springs web page. They no longer only report YOY changes….now it looks like WOW stats are showing up which stands for both “week over week” and WOW look at those price drops! I can’t wait to see WOW drops in the Vancouver area.
http://www.trulia.com/real_est.....alifornia/
April 25th, 2009 at 10:52 pm
Watching the tech wreck. It’s the gift that keeps on giving. Think of the tremendous job opps for new talent when all the aged dead wood of Diva’s is cut away.
http://www.techcrunch.com/layoffs/
April 26th, 2009 at 10:26 am
“The worst thing for the world economy would be to assume the worst is over”
The economist on the idea of a quick global economic turnaround.
http://tinyurl.com/dafmc
April 26th, 2009 at 11:00 am
Looks a little like a little dead cat bounce in the market, probably last for a couple of months stimulated by significant drop in the price of money to try and stimulate the last few suckers to buy. BUT WAIT, I bet you by this October, November when the UI benefits run out for those out of work. TIMBER!!!!!! The next leg down within 6 months.
April 26th, 2009 at 11:02 am
Check out the unemployment graph for Oregon, then compare it to the one for BC. They look very similar, with Oregon being a few months ahead of BC. If we follow Oregon’s path, we could be at 11% unemployment in a few months!!!
Oregon:
http://www.qualityinfo.org/pubs/pressrel/0409.pdf
BC:
http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/pubs/lfs/lfs0903.pdf
April 26th, 2009 at 12:13 pm
crabman:
#54 crab, we haven’t been getting ANY unemployment or economic numbers since the advent of the Liberal Party’s push for re-election in BC. Why the NDP hasn’t been throwing the truth in thier face is a bit surreal, it seems like the NDP is totally broken down. There is no spirited opposition even though there would be plenty of popprtunities to rally whole towns of unemployed miners, loggers, fisheries and tourism people who have been out of work for months and even years in the cases of mill workers .
The screaming protests of angry villagers that a decent campaign organizor could easily manifest is strangely absent. Even so, I think that more real information will be allowed to leak out after the LIB’s get another four year stranglehold on the government. Too bad the NDP are fighting like girls in this election because there is certaily a lot of fodder for a good fire. I think the masses of hitherto silent unemployed is relativley strange all the same.
Whoever gets the cat bird seat will have to deal with the very real issue of rapid growth in the unemployment of rural and increasingly urban dwellers in BC. I agree with the comment the the denial syndrome will abate when the bulk of EI cheques starts to run out in the late summer.
April 26th, 2009 at 2:00 pm
Not everyone is being hoodwinked by the BS of the MSM, especially in the US where they have a much broader platform on which to observe and critique facts from lies.
We are looking at the reality of counting 24 million unemployed/underemployed citizens in the US, the cloak is slowly being lifted.
“You would think that with only 18 percent of Americans having some confidence in their banking system that the media would be shedding a more critical eye on the banks. That is not case. And as I will show with the following four graphs, nearly 2 years into this financial crisis, the vast majority of Americans have not seen any noticeable help. A country with 24 million unemployed and underemployed citizens and we are asked to bailout the perpetrators of one of histories greatest debt bubbles.”
http://www.mybudget360.com/200.....s-reserve/
Although it seems pleasent enough todat from my perch at a population cafe, I know that a great proportion of these people around me are ‘in the shit’. I am over hearing a lot of chatter of new self employment schemes and lot of talk about economic concerns. I just wonder about how many of these Diva shitheads is on thier last few weeks of EI. I expect to see at least a few of these over dressed babes and metro sex boys on Craigslist soon selling ‘special massage’ It’s sounding more like crunch time is fast approaching in Van Queasy.
April 26th, 2009 at 2:04 pm
The NDP does NOT want to be elected. They are very aware of what the future is going to bring and don’t want to be in power when the SHTF as they may get blamed for it.
You will probably see the NDP push alot harder 4 years from now.
April 26th, 2009 at 7:22 pm
http://www.economist.com/opini.....d=13492469
You have been warned.
April 26th, 2009 at 8:05 pm
ealestatecrack Says:Reply to this comment
April 24th, 2009 at 5:46 pm
Anonymous:
#38 anon, Quick query to you or VanBanker ( anyone?). I believe the rules for financing a mortgage change dramatically when you hit 65 years old. You can no longer get a conventional financing ( don’t blow a gasket I ‘m just asking). What happens to persons who are say 40 and step into a 35 year amortization and make thier regular mortgage payments? They will still owe a considerable sum but will no longer qualify for financing for the approx ten years of mortgage left on the property?”
Good question, but sorry, I only do construction/development loans so I don’t know anything about residential mortgage financing. I will try to find out though.
April 26th, 2009 at 8:27 pm
“Inventory Says:Reply to this comment
April 23rd, 2009 at 11:39 pm
REBGV SFH+TH+APT Unit sales April 1995 to 2009
Year SOLD LISTED ACTIVE GROSS YOY% MOI AVG$
2009 2042 3518 15417 $1,126,214,353 -38% 7.55 $551,525
**April 22, 2009 ”
If Inventory’s numbers are correct, then it looks like we’ve probably hit the Sales peak for 2009 in April, and things should plateau and then drop for the rest of the year, which prices dropping as well once the MOI ratio gets high enough again, probably in fall.
I’ll tell you though, there all of these guys at my office trying to push me “Why don’t you buy now? We’ve hit the bottom, this is the best chance to buy!” I tried to explain the spring bounce but their eyes just glaze over, people don’t like to have their “bubble bursted” (ha!).
April 26th, 2009 at 8:30 pm
realestatecrack:
I believe the rules for financing a mortgage change dramatically when you hit 65 years old.
I’m not a banking expert, but I think that would be illegal. You cannot discriminate in lending based on the borrower’s age, only ability to repay. Of course if someone is only getting CPP+OAS that factors into ability to repay.
The other issue, of renewing a mortgage say 30 years after purchase when the borrower is 70, is a non-issue. By that time almost all the principal will have been paid off and the balance will be way under the value of the collateral. Also if the original loan was CMHC insured that will still be in effect.
Bottom line is that the reason banks make mortgage loans in the first place is to get the payments, and if you keep making the payments, they’re happy, They don’t want your house.
Vancouver Condo News & Links | Vancouver Condo Blog Says:
April 26th, 2009 at 8:36 pm
[...] Huge List of Economy Links From One Of My Favorite Blogs – Vancouver Condo Info [...]
April 26th, 2009 at 8:44 pm
realpaul:
Why the NDP hasn’t been throwing the truth in thier face is a bit surreal, it seems like the NDP is totally broken down.
The NDP can’t even acknowledge that there is a housing bubble in BC. As I said, that’s the elephant on the campaign platform. RE is the only thing left driving the BC economy and when that goes down it’s lights out.
It’s clear to me that the NDP campaign strategy was drafted last year prior to the recession. It’s basically “axe the tax” plus the usual tweaking of social programs. It’s really just rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic, when what they really should have been doing for the last couple of years was pointing at the iceberg ahead. Then when it hit they would have had some credibility.
I don’t know whether the NDP really wants to lose or it’s just running one of its usual uninspired campaigns, but I think it would be best for them and for the province if they lose. If by some chance they won people would be blaming the upcoming economic debacle on them for the next 50 years, and it’s not their fault. Let Gordo take the rap as he richly deserves and the NDP can have another 4 years to come up with a more relevant platform next time.
April 26th, 2009 at 9:07 pm
“patriotz Says:Reply to this comment
April 26th, 2009 at 8:44 pm
realpaul:
Let Gordo take the rap as he richly deserves and the NDP can have another 4 years to come up with a more relevant platform next time.”
I’m curious as to why people think the Liberals deserve so much responsibility for the housing bubble in BC. It is the federal government that: increased amortizations; lowered down payment requirements; and sponsors residential mortgages through CMHC.
What would the NDP have done differently if they were in power? At least the Liberals brought in the carbon tax.
April 26th, 2009 at 9:20 pm
VanBanker:
I’m curious as to why people think the Liberals deserve so much responsibility for the housing bubble in BC.
Go back and read my post “The Elephant on the Campaign Platform”. If you had a 100% speculation tax you would never have a housing bubble, because all bubbles are based on expectations of speculative gains, and if you tax away those gains, you will have no speculative buying. Period.
Gordo is a professional RE developer and he knows this just as well as I do.
The Liberals have been in charge of this province for 8 years. They and their allies (and yes that includes Gordo’s brother and the rest of the usual suspects, and the media with the honourable exception of the Georgia Strait) have done everything they could to pump this RE bubble. They are entirely responsible for it and they should be held entirely responsible for the outcome of its collapse.
And I never claimed the NDP would have done anything differently. But they haven’t been running the province for the last 8 years. They are not responsible. The Liberals are.
April 26th, 2009 at 9:29 pm
RE #62:
Take your shameless bait-and-switch comments somewhere else Realtard. With posts like this on your blog, it’s obvious you’re not on the same page as the rest of us:
“The city is so brilliant it makes living in such small quarters livable. So we are all hearing about how the economy is dwindling and you can safely say the condo market here in Vancouver is now a buyer’s one.”
P.S. Could you put a little more advertising all over your site – what, your real estate job not paying enough these days?
April 26th, 2009 at 9:35 pm
The runup in prices is the ndp’s fault. Created an environment where no one wanted to build real estate, caused a shortfall in housing. Continued population increases, the liberals at least tried to keep up enough development to meet the need. The liberals at least created an environment that helped try to meet demand. I thank liberals for making real estate affordable in vancouver now. Prices go up maybe next year.
April 26th, 2009 at 9:57 pm
“patriotz Says:Reply to this comment
April 26th, 2009 at 9:20 pm
VanBanker:
I’m curious as to why people think the Liberals deserve so
much responsibility for the housing bubble in BC.
Go back and read my post “The Elephant on the Campaign Platform”. If you had a 100% speculation tax you would never have a housing bubble, because all bubbles are based on expectations of speculative gains, and if you tax away those gains, you will have no speculative buying. Period.”
I do agree with you about some sort of capital gains/speculation tax. It would be very difficult to sell though, most people are psychologically invested in the current status quo and will fight it, even if it would actually benefit them in the long run!
April 27th, 2009 at 2:36 am
squabbly writes: “your (sic)locked in for 25 years and will be forced into dealing with a realtor (cough choke) and if you need to move who will extort an extortionist ransom from you…”
No. You will not be FORCED to use a realtor. After you check out a dictionary and maybe take some high school equivalency course in English to help you fix your mangled syntax, visit a library and bone up on the concept of “free will.”
Maybe after you’ve learned something you’ll be able to afford to move out of your mom’s place in Rundle and into a non-degenerate part of Cowtown.
April 27th, 2009 at 2:44 am
patriotz writes: “If you had a 100% speculation tax you would never have a housing bubble, because all bubbles are based on expectations of speculative gains, and if you tax away those gains, you will have no speculative buying. Period.”
Marxist. Who decides what is a speculation and what is an investment. Is buying gold an investment? Protection against a devalued currency? Speculation?
But good for you, thinking that you or whatever saviour you vote for would be wise enough to divine the difference.
April 27th, 2009 at 2:46 am
Peter Griffin writes at a previous poster: “RE #62:
Take your shameless bait-and-switch comments somewhere else Realtard. With posts like this on your blog, it’s obvious you’re not on the same page as the rest of us.”
Must be nice, having all the answers. All you have to do in life is come on this board and read comments that confirm your world view. Awesome.
April 27th, 2009 at 7:23 am
The larger underpinnings of the economy continue to fall apart. Why anyone could be stupid enough to misunderstand that facts is mind boggling.
http://www.globeinvestor.com/s.....7/GIStory/
The thousands of people in BC who work in and around the travel industry must be shit scared about the swine flu epidemic, this will put thousands out of buisness. Kudo’s to Air Canada for a change for offering a no penalty ticket option to re book a flight after the pandemic is over, if it ever is. A big ” YOU SUCK” to the travel agents association who said yesterday that thet will continue to sell peopel into the epicenter of the epidemic ” because they don’t feel it’s widespread’ , what bullshit. The news out of Mexico is that it’s nation wide and all public events and buildings are being closed as a pre caution. Screw you trave agents, you greedy pigs, you’ll get what you deserve. I hope people spit on you and you realtard friends when you’re standing in the EI line ups after you’ve hit the food bank.
April 27th, 2009 at 7:49 am
Did you need another reason not to buy that time share in Mexico aside from the brain scan? As if the murder count and corruption wasn’t enough to disuade you?
EU issues heatlh warnings agianst EU citizens travelling to Mexico.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/......html?.v=7
April 27th, 2009 at 8:01 am
Canada now on travel advisories from several countries. Oh Oh summer tourism could be a big flop. Thousands are already on the razors edge in BC tourism, this could be the death knell.
TORONTO — Several countries have issued advisories or advice about travelling to Canada after confirmation of six cases of swine flu.
India’s government has issued a travel advisory, telling its citizens to restrict visits to Canada, Mexico, the U.S. and New Zealand to essential travel because of swine flu. The Times of India reports all travellers flying into India from Canada and other countries that have confirmed cases of swine flu will be individually checked for symptoms such as a fever and upper respiratory tract infection.
Media reports from Malaysia say that country’s Health Ministry is advising Malaysians against travelling to Canada, Mexico and selected U.S. states where there are swine flu cases.
Australia’s Foreign Affairs department makes note of the Canadian swine flu cases on its Web site, telling Australian travellers to Canada they should consult a doctor or go to a hospital if they develop flu-like symptoms.
April 27th, 2009 at 8:03 am
Olympic Village lies backs in the news with new leaked memo surfacing. Disaster was well known but a coverup took palce behind the scenes.
FRANCES BULA
Special to The Globe and Mail
April 27, 2009 at 8:13 AM EDT
Vancouver’s then-chief financial officer wrote only one memo to express her concerns about the financing of the Olympic village before leaving her post, but it was a telling one, according to a freedom of information request.
That lengthy memo from Estelle Lo, apparently written last October after The Globe and Mail had revealed the project’s shaky finances, raised a raft of questions about what would happen if real-estate prices fell at the luxury Millennium development and where the city would find the money to back up its loan guarantee if needed.
Every one of the questions she raised before her resignation later that month became subjects of public debate after it was revealed that the $1-billion project had extensive cost overruns, could no longer get financing from Fortress Investment Group – the U.S. hedge fund it had originally borrowed from – and was requiring emergency loans from the city to pay its bills.
“In the worst-case scenario of the city continuing to provide financing in the future if the project faces additional financing shortfalls (due to escalating costs, presale collapses, declining sales value or inability of Fortress to finance or any other reason), how can the city protect itself in recovering these funds?” Ms. Lo asks in her 11-point memo.
April 27th, 2009 at 8:14 am
eatme wrote at 2:36 am “Maybe after you’ve learned something you’ll be able to afford to move out of your mom’s place in Rundle and into a non-degenerate part of Cowtown.”
Hey, when you addressed “squabbly” in your post, you gave yourself away as the goof who posts at albertabubble.blogspot.com under the monicker “Art Vandelay”, the fictitious fool played by the fictititious idiot George Costanza from Seinfeld re-runs, which you presumably were watching while posting at 2:36 am.
You got the wrong blog, bubba. Most people in Vancouver won’t know about “Rundle” and “Cowtown”. Some will think that “Cowtown” refers to Guelph, Ontario, not Calgary. btw, I can guess about your other monickers. Give it up, you have nothing to say of any importance. I’m tired of your trolling under different names.
April 27th, 2009 at 12:23 pm
“eat me Says:
April 27th, 2009 at 2:44 am
patriotz writes: “If you had a 100% speculation tax you would never have a housing bubble, because all bubbles are based on expectations of speculative gains, and if you tax away those gains, you will have no speculative buying. Period.”
Marxist. Who decides what is a speculation and what is an investment. Is buying gold an investment? Protection against a devalued currency? Speculation?
But good for you, thinking that you or whatever saviour you vote for would be wise enough to divine the difference.”
Haha, wow, what a knee-jerk reaction. God forbid people not be allowed to flip their properties at will, how will people “get on the property ladder” if that happens?
Here is some economics for you my friend: having people spend their income servicing mortgage debt provides less economic benefit to society than saving (which eventually works its way into the system as investment in capital goods).
April 28th, 2009 at 11:35 am
Bilbo Bloggins: As a former resident of New York, I can tell you that you have to be very careful when evaluating the actual monthly costs of owning in the city. Most owned units in NYC carry ridiculously high co-op fees. In many cases, these monthly fees are equivalent to what you would pay in rent in Vancouver for a similar unit. Fees regularly reach $1,500 a month–or more.
I’ve never figured out exactly why all this money is needed, but that’s the way it works there. When you add in the fees, which you will have to pay during the entire time you own (and which will inevitably go up), it makes you think twice about owning in NYC.
April 28th, 2009 at 11:35 am
Bilbo Bloggins: As a former resident of New York, I can tell you that you have to be very careful when evaluating the actual monthly costs of owning in the city. Most owned units in NYC carry ridiculously high co-op fees. In many cases, these monthly fees are equivalent to what you would pay in rent in Vancouver for a similar unit. Fees regularly reach $1,500 a month–or more.
I’ve never figured out exactly why all this money is needed, but that’s the way it works there. When you add in the fees, which you will have to pay during the entire time you own (and which will inevitably go up), it makes you think twice about owning in NYC.