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April 11th, 2009 at 9:05 am
#45
Hmm, I dont know if I should click on the up or down arrow.
April 11th, 2009 at 5:53 am
Buy? Just go south of the border and pick up one for free:
Boats Too Costly to Keep Are Littering Coastlines
April 11th, 2009 at 5:43 am
time to buy me a 2nd hand yacht at mark down prices…
April 11th, 2009 at 1:21 am
Here’s a link to that ’86 Celica:
http://bc.repo.com/details/32723
Damn, that’s old and busted.
April 11th, 2009 at 1:17 am
squidly77: Interesting repo site. Looking at BC repo’d import cars, I have to wonder; how do you get into the situation where your ’86 Celica gets repossessed? Someone didn’t quite make it through a 25 year car loan or what?
April 11th, 2009 at 12:09 am
You are all evil jerks that worship the devil.
April 10th, 2009 at 10:00 pm
Thank you. Yes, it’s cool, Karl’s Mortgage Calculators
April 10th, 2009 at 9:28 pm
depressionwatch:
There’s big inflation evrywhere except wages
Consumer price inflation without wage inflation is, of course, negative for house prices.
April 10th, 2009 at 8:53 pm
The Okanogan market is booming according to this bimbo/ desperate head case realturdette in Kelowna
http://www.briggsonhomes.com/b…..state.aspx
The slime is oozing out with the spring warming and providing some real entertainment.
April 10th, 2009 at 8:40 pm
ursus:
#29 I think you’re right. Wages will suffer due to the ‘recession’. However I’ve noticed that every food store has been steadily raising prices and every restauraunt I’ve been in recently ( two months) has repriced thier menu. There’s big inflation evrywhere except wages. Fishy.
April 10th, 2009 at 8:36 pm
pricedoutfornow:
Housing starts are down 93% in Kelowna. I would surmise that most of the construction workers are gone. The few remaining would be attached to family businesses and a very few part time casual labourers who are part of the grow op sweep currently going on in the Okanogan.
It’s a death spiral for the O – Valley
April 10th, 2009 at 8:32 pm
lots in bc too
http://bc.repo.com/browse/Motorbikes
April 10th, 2009 at 8:30 pm
lots of repos in calgary
http://calgary.repo.com/browse/Domestic_Trucks
April 10th, 2009 at 8:26 pm
#36 : Cars! Check out Craigslist in Kelowna-2006/7$128K porches for sale for $40-50K.
– Why pay 40K for a car when you can get a gas miser with plenty of luggage room for less than 4K? And you will not cry your eyes out if you get a dent or a scratch, even better – nobody wants to steal it. Stick the balance in a yielding investment.
April 10th, 2009 at 8:18 pm
KELOWNA Yes a good observation of IDIOTS in a BOOM Market.
I think I knew Kelowna very well 20 years ago, 10 yrs ago and 2 yrs ago.
Observing a summer town with rampant relatively affordable housing, no REAL industry/economy-agriculture-farming-no real BIG money.
I like to spend as much time as possible in the OK in the summer as possible.I love it!
The summer of 2007 blew me away with what I saw!
Kids meaning 28-33, left school at grade 10, drywallers, painters, framers, waiters, bartenders, Driving $100K+ cars, $100K amazing boats. I could not believe what I was witnessing!
Where, who, how, can this be happening? I was JEALOUS!
WHAT THE ^&&*^%$ IS happening here?
How many BIG FISH in a low income town can ther possibly be?
IDIOTS making $100K+ per yr because of supply+Demand.
NOW TODAY in Kelowna, Incredible deals on Real Estate, Boats, Cars! Check out Craigslist in Kelowna-2006/7$128K porches for sale for $40-50K.
Capitalism-GOTTA LUV IT!
Let the Temp Rich Party and watch it all fall down!
April 10th, 2009 at 8:10 pm
calgary is already getting 400 foreclosures per month
http://www.foreclosurescanada.com/stat2009.html
April 10th, 2009 at 8:04 pm
Alpha_Bear:
LOL!!!! That is just TOO hilarious! Must be some kind of record!
April 10th, 2009 at 7:55 pm
I guess there will be some “nice” rentals.
However, I am not in the business to bail out those that bought by renting high for a “nice” place.
My my job in “ME Corporation” is to pay as little as possible in rent, b/c I am number one, not the landlords.
After all, I am the one holding the money and I am pretty leak proof when it comes to money, since they dont pay decent wages in BC. So I pay myself by not spending, especially on ambitious rents – what’s in it for me???
Anytime there is a price increase I get creative, I think ever further away from the box. One has to be like water, increased costs=more resistance, I find the route of less resistance, and trust me, there are a lot of roads to Rome – who said you need a road to get there.. or ..why Rome?
April 10th, 2009 at 7:32 pm
pricedoutfornow: “Not just Vancouver…I was in Kelowna this week on business and noticed a HUGE number of houses sporting “For Rent” signs out front (often accompanied by “for sale” signs)…”
According to the Okanagan Mainline Real Estate Board (OMREB), Kelowna has a 61 YEAR inventory of houses priced over one million dollars! (367 houses for sale, with only one sale in the past two months)
There should be some really nice rentals coming onto the market in Kelowna soon.
April 10th, 2009 at 7:02 pm
pricedoutfornow:
I was in Kelowna this week on business and noticed a HUGE number of houses sporting “For Rent” signs out front (often accompanied by “for sale” signs
Well that rings a bell, a few years ago I starting seeing postings on HBB describing the same thing in… lets see where was it… oh yeah…
Phoenix
April 10th, 2009 at 5:58 pm
“Hard to tell without the evidence of Paul/Gavins stats,”
Gavin has the dailies updated at http://www.nvcondos.ca/page_content-9.html
April 10th, 2009 at 4:18 pm
This is unfolding like a nightmare for the housing market.
Deflation, recession and joblosses will continue to pull prices down, and the knockout punch will come with higher mortgage rates way before we see any wage/price inflation.
April 10th, 2009 at 4:04 pm
That’s why we shoul’nt confuse monetary inflation with price/wage inflation. But eventually, one will influence the other.
April 10th, 2009 at 3:36 pm
The thing is trillions of dollars have just been wiped off the books. That’s what happens when the loans go bad and the banks go down. That’s called “deflation”. This “deflation” far outweighs the money being wasted on bailouts and “stimulus”. Everyone’s talking about inflation like it’s already upon us. It’s far from it. I’d bet against inflation even within the decade.
April 10th, 2009 at 3:05 pm
anonymous #23 said:
“the US will not be concerned with attracting foreign capital”
The US debt is expected to grow another $2 trllion this year beyond the current $11+ tril, of which about 30% is held by foreigners (probably moer by now). China and Japan hold most of it, and the US is scared $hitless about hints that China is threatening to bail.
With every US man woman and child loaded down with $36.5k (or over $100k per household), who would be dumb enough to invest in this debt. The only way it can possibly be serviced is for the treasury dept to print more money and to raise rates to avoid spooking foreign investors.
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/
April 10th, 2009 at 1:10 pm
Having said this, can anyone enlighten me why hyper-inflation would still be a possibility in N/A?
——————–
Because the US government just pumped $10+ trillion green colored paper money into the economy over the last few months.
April 10th, 2009 at 12:48 pm
kansai_92: “There’s no more buyers left on the sidelines. Anyone who’s capable of buying has already purchased during the past 7 to 10 years.
The ones who didn’t are that last batch I’m referring to.”
There are a lot who chose not to buy, even though they could. Many buyers WERE bears but secretly regret they “missed the boat” earlier this decade. With prices now 10%-20% off peak, it’s like re-living 2006 all over again, when many of these buyers almost pulled the trigger.
Here’s the mentality: there’s nothing like being given a second chance on life. Seize the day and don’t make the same mistake twice.
Ironic how the first “mistake” of not buying in 2006 wasn’t a mistake at all, from an investment standpoint, and them buying now could be the real mistake.
April 10th, 2009 at 12:38 pm
Patriotz, economic circumstances change, the US will not be concerned with attracting foreign capital. The 1980′s are over.
April 10th, 2009 at 12:20 pm
patriotz:
Thanks for the explanation, as usual your clarity helped a lot.
If I follow your tough, you are suspecting consumer prices inflation. I am afraid , we will have to accommodate that and learn how to leave more “lean”… just like the rest of the world. Because salaries are not going up for sure anytime soon.
April 10th, 2009 at 12:17 pm
Joycer:
Well I think that most agree on no hyper inflation. However, just for kicks, lets consider the case of “sweeping the debt under the rug”, where the fresh debtor (government) has infinite life, and can repay in zillion years. The math is slightly different in that case, since they can “refinance” it forever.
Its questionable if this is smart decision or not, but definitely is possible. Suddenly, the printed money are on-hold, nobody can really use them. Inflation would be contained.
I may be grossly incorrect here, and after all this (economy) is not my specialty – just another Joe worried whats tomorrow is going to bring.
April 10th, 2009 at 11:49 am
And by the way… on the inflation topic. We’re not going to have hyperinflation, that would be a nightmare for everyone. We will get double digit inflation eventually, the US has made a $12,800,000,000,000 bet on it. The only way they will ever be able to meet those obligations without financially crippling the population is inflate it away.
April 10th, 2009 at 11:40 am
Spring is all about psychology. Buyers and sellers are all thinking the same thing: prices down and mortgage rates historically low. Sellers will hold out and buyers feel they may miss out. Sales always pick up in the spring and that will encourage sellers to hold out for a better price as they see homes in the neighborhood selling. Once the spring sales are finished and inventory has ballooned, sellers will either have to cut prices through summer and fall or pull their listing to rent instead. I believe that the US markets did the same thing every spring by showing some signs of life only to collapse again for the rest of the year.
April 10th, 2009 at 11:31 am
anonymous:
Ursus, the Fed will not be concerned with attracting foreign capital.
The US has a current account deficit of 673bn/year or 3.3% of GDP. The US either has to keep importing this capital or shrink consumption and investment by 3.3%. The latter option is not in keeping with the goals of the administration or the Fed, to put it mildly.
April 10th, 2009 at 11:29 am
From my rudimentary memory of the two economics class I took in university, inflation is brought about by too many dollars chasing too few goods.
Central banks are supposed to “create” enough money to match growth in GDP. Any more would mean inflation, any less would mean deflation.
In fact, if the central bank didn’t create money, prices on goods should fall over time given that production and manufacturing become more competitive and efficient over time.
For inflation to take hold, money velocity needs to also be in play. Right now banks aren’t lending as much and people aren’t borrowing as much. Money velocity is essentially dried up.
But eventually the mindset will change and people will think, “wait a minute, all this money printing means the dollars I’m socking away for a rainy day will not buy as much tomorrow as they will today.”
At that point, people will start opening up their wallets in a big way. All that money on the sidelines will be scooping up hard assets as a way to preserve wealth. Prices will climb.
I don’t think hyperinflation will be allowed to happen.
Doing so would mean the collapse of the very fabric of the economic system.
Thus governments would have no choice but to hike up interest rates rapidly.
Real estate, although a hard asset will sustain downward pressure as interest rates rise as RE is usually a leveraged.
I am by no means an expert on the subject. Your comments please.
April 10th, 2009 at 11:06 am
Ursus, the Fed will not be concerned with attracting foreign capital. The debt game is well beyond that point.
April 10th, 2009 at 11:01 am
asalvari,
I agree that deflation is a much bigger concern, but don’t confuse monetary inflation with price/wage inflation. The FED will have to raise rates just to pay for all the bailouts with devalued money, and to attract foreign capital.
April 10th, 2009 at 11:00 am
Asalvari, google up quantitative easing. Don’t believe what the governments tell you they want, they will move towards higher inflation with negative real interest rates. Jubak i believe wrote something on this on msn last week.
April 10th, 2009 at 10:43 am
asalvari:
Having said this, can anyone enlighten me why hyper-inflation would still be a possibility in N/A?
Of course it’s possible. The central bankers could just create a flood of paper money like Mugabe. There is no law of nature stopping this.
But it’s not going to happen, because contrary to what some people think, the PTB don’t want high inflation, never mind hyperinflation. It’s bad for business. Really. They just want 2% or so. They will probably both undershoot and overshoot in the short run, but get close to it in the long run.
That’s consumer price inflation I’m talking about. Asset price deflation in RE and stocks has already happened of course, and is not going to be reversed except by fundamentals. For RE that means increasing wages (fat chance), and for stocks that means increasing profits (somewhat better chance).
April 10th, 2009 at 10:35 am
i’m heading to Mission BC today to check out some $300K SFH Open Houses
too bad there weren’t any priced like that in East Van….. the ol’ waiting game continues
April 10th, 2009 at 10:25 am
Re: low mortgages getting the last suckers on the market
The 10 year locked mortgages interest rates are going down. I think that this is a signal that the inflation is not going to happen – at least not on double digits.
The whole NA market (except some pockets in Canada) is in process of asset devaluation. Once this process starts – why would anybody like to inflate is beyond my understanding – it would create huge problems in the people lives and it would cripple the system we are living (and yes it can be crippled so much that you would not believe it). Deflation however, does not affect the system very much, but it does individuals (albeit, unevenly, some individuals are more exposed to it and some are less).
Having said this, can anyone enlighten me why hyper-inflation would still be a possibility in N/A?
April 10th, 2009 at 10:23 am
from the “they aren’t making land anymore” dept:
http://tinyurl.com/cm3pxr
A huge chunk of land stretching from the Sooke Potholes to beyond Jordan River is back on the market after a developer let his conditional agreement to buy the property expire.
April 10th, 2009 at 10:16 am
oh yeaah nutsters! mr market say
“reports of my death have been grately exagerated”
April 10th, 2009 at 10:08 am
Hard to tell without the evidence of Paul/Gavins stats, but the “for sale” signs seem to be popping up like muchrooms after a spring thunderstorm.
The fact that prices have not risen with those temporary low mortgage rates that have sucked in a few more FTBs should be a clear sign that this is a dead cat bounce….pity those poor suckers when rates go up as they must.
Another clear indication that the slide is about to resume is that the only stuff moving is the lowest on the junk pile….there has been no action whatsoever in the upscale market of detached SFDs.
April 10th, 2009 at 9:55 am
The strong bouce is not a surprise. Imagine you’ve been waiting in the wings for 5 years, diligently saving your downpayment. You don’t read the paper much let alone the financial section, LET ALONE real estate bear blogs. You get your news from your “knowledgable family members” who made money in real estate, your bank, CKNW, Global TV etc. All you’ve ever heard is real estate always goes up in the long term and renting is paying your landlord’s mortgage.
Now you play around with the online mortgage calculator and see how much you can borrow. Wow! With the recent correction and the low rates you discover you can buy a house.
Of course people are going to jump. They just don’t believe prices here are going to fall another 20-50%. Oh, and i nearly forgot the serve-serving lies spewing from the mouths of real estate “experts”.
April 10th, 2009 at 12:21 am
Not much for sale on the east side right now. A suite in our building sold in less than three weeks.
A co-worker who moved here last year from out-of-province just bought a house; another – newly married – is looking. This weekend, I’ll be tagging along with a friend who is moving back to Vancouver next month and MUST (his emphasis, not mine) buy a place right away.
When I went to renew my current mortgage, my banker told me I’d qualify for five times that amount. I’m not biting. I guess that’s what “you’re richer than you think” means.
April 10th, 2009 at 12:12 am
At least all RE Bullshit merchants, Alchemist/Illusionists and Wizards are always ready for action, no matter what’s going on. I just wonder what kind of mental damage one could have to still keep repeating things like this:
“A 10 to 20% price reduction is good news for employment because home sales are increasing, which employs Realtors, advertising media, conveyance staff, home inspectors, building trades, moving & renovation companies, etc. That’s all good news for our economy. Steve at http://openhousenow.ca”
Comment at : Vancouver house prices take a steep dive
April 9th, 2009 at 10:42 pm
The bulls would argue that the spring bounce is stronger than usual.
I suspect it’s simply the last batch of first home buyers getting dragged into the market by temporary low interest rates and a recent decline in prices of about 14%.
There’s no more buyers left on the sidelines. Anyone who’s capable of buying has already purchased during the past 7 to 10 years.
The ones who didn’t are that last batch I’m referring to.
I expect to see a inventory spike into the summer as the unemployment numbers start working their way into the system.
Sales will continue to be flat and that means MOI is on it’s way up.
April 9th, 2009 at 10:40 pm
From “Vancouver house prices take a steep dive”:
Average home prices in Vancouver have dropped more than 12 per cent during the first three months of 2009 when compared to the same period last year.
Could someone explain to me what that is supposed to mean?
Would that be some math and English challenged person trying to say, “Average home prices are down more than 12% YOY as of the end of 1Q2009″?
April 9th, 2009 at 10:06 pm
Not just Vancouver…I was in Kelowna this week on business and noticed a HUGE number of houses sporting “For Rent” signs out front (often accompanied by “for sale” signs) Since they can’t sell, try to rent, my contacts tell me. (1000+ condos on the market in March, and a dismal 47 sales) However, the construction jobs that made the city boom in the last five years are gone, and quite possibly the construction workers as well-so lots of vacancies. Because even the nightclubs are not doing so well either.
It seems Kelowna is returning to the city I knew in my youth: low-paying jobs, not many opportunities and just generally not a city you’d want to stay in if you were past 20 and moderately ambitious (and not a retiree). Makes me glad I left.
April 9th, 2009 at 10:04 pm
This couldn’t possibly be a deal fraught with danger…could it? From p8 of this week’s Georgia Straight:
Polygon Homes – “Branches on the North Shore” Apparently this new development is “North Shore Living that Suits Your Budget” How’s that you ask?
Well you can move into your 2 bd condo for only $889/month!! How?
10% down and…0% teaser rate fixed for 1 year. They also offer 3 year fixed @ 1.95% and 5 years @ 2.95%
Thank goodness we aren’t like those nasty American people.