Patriotz points out that Phoenix Arizona has just become the first US city on the S&P Case Schiller index to have house prices drop below 50% of their peak value. Prices in Phoenix have now dropped 50.8% from the June 2006 high followed closely by Las Vegas.
Could it happen here?
Any reference to Tim Hortons is an implicit sarcasm indicator, 🙂
Please, someone tell me Sally (29) is trying to be sarcastic or facetious. I've had a few drinks tonight and can't tell but she can't be serious.
RE: Post #31 by karl
Congratulations karl,
In one statement, you managed to show what a bigot and ignorant P.O.S. you are.
It's not all your fault though.
After all, the family dog did beat your dad up the stairs that faithful night many years ago.
http://business.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story…
Banks applaud planned mark-to-market rules
Maybe we should impose a one time flat tax on people who made money from the bubble and use the money to finance the stimulus packages. Those who caused the trouble are those who pay for the clean up. Problem solved.
For all you bimbos real estate in vancouver is driven by chineese. If you are waiting for prices to fall them keep waiting as some chinesse wil sell his mum and if need be his daughter and gran to buy a home in Richmond which has fallen by a few dollars. Thats why house prices are still rising in the worst recession the western world has seen
Chinese came upto me last month and asked me to park her 500sel mercedes in front of joye tomatoes. I was in my nissian and gladly did it fro her. She handed me a 20 dollar bill for doing it and said that she has a problem parking. I asked her what profession she was and she smiled asnd said vancouver real estate had been real good to her.
made me really wonder !!!!!!!
How can anyone compare Phoenix with Vancouver. Vancouver is a world class city with world class people. We have People from rich countries like Indian, China and (i cant think of any more sorry!!). Vancouver has no gang crime. There is very litlle drug problem here. We have very few people without jobs as most people with jobs are emplyed by wends and Tim hortons and support ($750,000) mortgages (don't ask me how but they do). We have professionals like pharmacists and dentist earning as much as what store managers earn in other countries like (London ,England). So how can home prices go down in vancouver. Its not logical , sorry you guys Vancouvers home prices will stay even if it is flat for a few years. These people who spent over 750,000 on their homes worked very hard at… Read more »
jesse Says: “That’s what I thought in Januray! Boy is my face red."
But I DIDN'T say that in January. YOU DID AND THEREFORE YOU DESERVE A RED FACE!
Rates can go down more if we have deflation (so real interest rate would still be high).
"Rates can’t go any lower than today’s, folks! "
That's what I thought in Januray! Boy is my face red.
It's obvious that the flurry of realwhore ads about the 'great time to buy real estate' are abating to a signifigant degree. Are they finally running out of money or is the general feeling that reality is winning setting in?
The stats indicate that anyone who bought in the past 8 months has been a gig loser and the further out we go the more money the sheeple lose. Oh Oh, Cameron Muir you fucking whore, what have you got to say now.
hey friends,
just an FYI – Ozzy has become a real bear now.
I recommend checking out his latest newsletter.
xoxo
romeo
rp: Prices will not fall as quickly in Canada because in Arizona (and California) mortgages are non-recourse so the underwater buyers can walk away. Recourse or not, when you're jobless and have no income, you can't pay your mortgage. This brings up another point. Why did Canadians, particularly in BC, flip houses with recourse mortgages in the last few years? Are they insane? Were they aware that all Canadian mortgages are recourse and did they even understand what that meant? I bet many of them are learning about it when the bank goes after their other assets and garnish their wages, if any. Or perhaps they have already transferred their bank accounts to Hong Kong. Even worse, there's no 30-year fixed rate mortgage in Canada, unlike in the US. If they're stuck and lucky enough to rent it out, they'll… Read more »
Assuming this turns out to be the obligatory spring bounce and prices increase, it seems to me that once the price increases balance out the recent drop in mortgage rates (this can be calculated: present value of difference in interest paid at the two rates), the crash will resume its momentum, but by then it will be even more difficult to drop mortgage rates lower to sustain entry of FTB.
Another possibility is that sales will continue at these levels but only if prices continue to drop.
You're starting to sound desperate Patriotz. Don't worry, there's low mortgage rates, a decent amount of product and some negotiating power for today's buyers.
It’s not just Phoenix, the lower priced homes in San Diego have also fallen 50%.
Look at the graph and see what the categories are (Feb 09 prices):
Low: under 278K
Mid: 278K-409K
High: over 409K
That's detached houses in San Diego, folks. That's a metro of about 3 million with great weather, between the mountains and the ocean and the border.
Can't happen here?
$6500 / 2br – Waterfront Luxury! #902 – 1139 W Cordova (Coal Harbour)
Bedrooms: 2
Bathrooms: 2.5 <br. Sq Footage: 2400
Truly exceptional suite over $4million value!!
Gee, do you think the high end got a bit overbuilt?
Miami North.
rp: Prices will not fall as quickly in Canada because in Arizona (and California) mortgages are non-recourse so the underwater buyers can walk away. Florida is recourse. How's that working out? Let's also not forget that prices fell at a tremendous speed in the 1981-83 bust here in Vancouver. And prices are falling faster in BC and Alberta in the current bust than in any US state. Recourse or not, if you can no longer pay the mortgage (i.e. lose your job) you are going to walk. Actually it isn't really a matter of foreclosures, it's simply a matter of what buyers are willing and able to pay. If the amount a buyer is willing to pay for a house drops 50%, house prices will drop 50%. Even if there is not a single foreclosure. Houses will sell only for… Read more »
$6500 / 2br – Waterfront Luxury! #902 – 1139 W Cordova (Coal Harbour) Bedrooms: 2 Bathrooms: 2.5 <br. Sq Footage: 2400 Truly exceptional suite over $4million value!! Do the math!! A mortgage on this suite at the best rate would be almost $20k plus $1k maintenance fee + taxes and don't forget the $1million dollar downpayment!! Huge open rooms with floor to ceiling windows Brand new, never lived in Panoramic unobstructed views to the N.E. to the harbour, Stanley Park and the mountains Steps to the Pan Pacific hotel and the new Convention Centre Located on the Golden mile of Coal Harbour Air conditioned Italian smoked oak Snaidero cabinetry Mile & Sub Zero Appliances including built in expresso maker World class amenities at the Indoor Health club including pool,steam/sauna, hot tub and gym Golf practice room! Guest suite 2 parking… Read more »
What you get for $225,000
rp:
#13 rp, I like the idea that anyone could suddenly cough up whatever the loss spread was ( 100K in your example) to balance out thier debt and keep it at a relative constant. Where do we as innocent taxpayers get all that extra dough? Does evryone in Vancouver have that extra 100K in a savings account? Are they using it to pay down the realtive debt they have incurred this year with the drop in prices? If so, I’m buying bank stocks tomorrow because with that kind of spending money getting pumped into the big 5 the profits are going to scream back next quarter. Thanks for the tip btw.
#5 DW, don't forget that the Feds unemployment numbers are 'seasonally adjusted' numbers not the real number of jobs lost. Remember the last issuance Feb they fed us was 64000 jobs lost and the real numbers came in at 129,000. The feds had dummied up the data by subtracted the part time jobs from the loss of full time jobs and further replacing 'ghost jobs' which they 'assume' will come back once the weather and other factors normalise. What crap.
if they are admitting to 80,000 jobs lost this time around it's a safe assumption that the actual numbers are double that. This would be the equivalent of 1.6 million jobs lost in the US.
Prices will not fall as quickly in Canada because in Arizona (and California) mortgages are non-recourse so the underwater buyers can walk away. How far prices will ultimately fall is anyone's guess. In Japan it was 90%. See the absolutely fascinating presentation at:
http://www.csis.org/component/option,com_csis_eve…
One idea is that if someone buys an asset and the price decreases 100k, they are 100k further in debt relative to their peers. This prompts them to pay off the extra debt. Unless the deflation is countered by government spending in the same asset class (ie: the government buys homes or otherwise subsidizes housing) then the price will fall.
Unemployment tops 20% in some US cities
#10 , I guess they're defaulting not because of the intrest rates but because the values continue to fall below the purchase price. No one wants to sit on mortgage payment for 500,000 when the place is only worth 250,000. It's much easier to walk. Garth had an interesting video clip posted on his sight about a multi hundred unit subdivision that was being torn down by the bank which owned it because it couldn't sell the units and wouldn't pay to finish the neccesary apps to the county to keep them up for sale never mind rent. It simply isn't worth the carrying costs to them and they choose to destruct the problem back to zero. In this case they just made the entire bubble vanish so I guess the house prices in this case went down 100%. Now… Read more »