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Friday Free-for-all!

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It’s the end of the week again.  It was a bit of a mixed bag this past week so here are a few negative and positive stories:

–B.C. exports expected to fall 23%
–Canadian forest sector losses continue to climb
–Canada, Australia, the U.K. seen first to recover from recession
–Bank of Japan Raises Economic View, Keeps Interest Rate at 0.1%
–Another fear gauge returns to normal
–U.S. economic indicators rise in April
–Vancouver’s landmark Bentall 5 building sells for $300 million
–B.C. MLS sales price to slump in ’09, climb ’10: CREA forecast

So what are you seeing out there?  Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

-Dave

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realpaul
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Reality is starting to slip out but will it sink into the mindset of the deniers? "Welfare cases up 47% in B.C. since last year More parents and couples able to work but unable to find jobs during recession" As speculated on this site MANY times over the past few months, the EI cheques would stop supporting the false claims that all was well in Lotus Land. There have been reports of signifigant layoffs in the Province and specifically in Metro Vancouver which have gone under reported and pushed aside by the denial brigades intent on selling condos and re-elected a failed government whose only direction is to push an Olympic elephant into the room. How anyone can assume that mass layoffs will continue to support rising condo prices is beyond logic. The bankers don't support the notion that there… Read more »
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9 years 9 months ago
realpaul
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Oh , sorry, one more idea if I may. The article attached to that posting refers only to " couples and couples with children', it does not tally the number of single persons who have hit rock bottom and are now on assistance. The last time we had a spike in welfare apps the BC gov started a ruthless campaign to disqualify a huge number of persons on assistance. They also attacked the persons on disability benefits and pensions insisting that they no longer qualified. It was ugly as many of you may remember. Look for more of that. The government also ( in the last recession and spike of claimants) began to shift the welfar cases over into 'student loan' files where welfare Moms would be forced to indebt themselves in a revolving door of 'retraining' for non existing… Read more »
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9 years 9 months ago
Bilbo Bloggins
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Found out one of my buddies is buying a house in East Van.

He's got an accepted offer at $720K. Not a bad looking house.

12 years old w/ a basement suite.

Kinda funny though. It took him more time to research and purchase his car last year than making the house purchase.

He figures he'll rent out the basement for $900 and after 25 years of massive mortgage payments, he'll own the house.

I'm not sure how this is different than renting a main floor suite for $1500 and investing the down payment plus the monthly payment savings.

Over 25 years, that can add up to a lot. And you don't have to deal with landlording and upkeep.

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9 years 9 months ago
mark downs
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For THREE QUARTERS OF A MILLION DOLLARS it better be 'Not a bad looking house'. Phew.

I rent a house on the east side for $1300 and the rundown place across the street was purchased just over a year ago for close to a million. I hope these people aren't looking at what their money would buy in other cities, because that would be depressing.

For me I'm happy to tuck away the extra grand a month. If the local market ever become reasonable I'll be in good shape to buy.

Don't know that I'd ever want to buy in Vancouver though, for me this city has lost a lot of its charm over the last 5 years.

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9 years 9 months ago
Niko
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The signs of recovery everyone is talking about may actually be good for the real estate market. Increased economic activity tends to lead to increasing interest rates. When the idiots who bought RE during the last year find their mortgage payments triple, it will be interesting to see.

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9 years 9 months ago
other ted
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According to the article that was linked Canada, uk first out of recession. Sorry to burts their bubble but the UK is on the verge of having their credit being downgraded due to an unmanageable public debt. The article states the US and Japan will have problems for a decade. But does not clarify what will make things different here. Either the analyst at Goldmas Sachs is an idiot or the reporter who wrote this misquoted him.

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9 years 9 months ago
Peter
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Niko: "may actually be good for the real estate market."

Good for sellers (price up) or good for buyers (price down)?

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9 years 9 months ago
Peter
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Looking at interest rates it looks like inflation is pretty much completely absent, except when it comes to food. I know my grocery bill has increased dramatically in the last couple of years, but that's not enough to drive interest rates higher, particularly when we're seeing deflation in all sorts of large assetts (ie houses).

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9 years 9 months ago
squeak!!
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#8

Yes, grocery have gone up. But I fight back, I changed my eating habits, know how to cook, never eat out, always pack my water and some "just in case snack".

I clean out my fridge every week, cook for a few days (I call it "fast food") I make my own "bars"(aka cookies), I cook from scratch, I buy certain items from certain stores.

There are very few items (including condiments) that one needs to buy processed.

When prices go up and my income does not, I bring out the armour and strategic thinking.

Does it relate to this blog? I think so.

(ps..gas is up, and my bike is out)

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9 years 9 months ago
realpaul
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Peter:

#8 P, woops a sober slip if the tongue on inflation

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=washington…

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9 years 9 months ago
VCI Admin
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Hey Dave, I thought you were going for happy news. These links seem to have a lot of gloom and doom in them.

You haven't caught the bear flu have you? 🙂

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9 years 9 months ago
Dave.
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I call it like it is. Some of the news was negative this week and was worth linking to. But, there have also been a lot of positive reports lately suggesting an economic bottom is forming and that a recovery isn't far off.

I had a mild bear flu late last summer / fall. But, this magnificant spring weather has certainly cleared up that affliction. 🙂

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9 years 9 months ago
Anonymous
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The Construction and spin off industries (realtors, lawyers, notaries, tradesman, mortgage brokers) have been insulated a bit more than the rest of the world so far.

Now that TV Towers and the Donovan are completing there go another 500 jobs and in comes 1,000 more rental units.

Now the "investor" must be faced with the prospect of losing thousands every month or sucking it up and losing $100k per unit.

Geez, no one on this board ever saw this coming.

And Dave you are more wrong than ever.

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9 years 9 months ago
deathspiral
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The big picture ain't pretty say expert ( a real expert not a 'rennie ad)

http://www.europac.net/externalframeset.asp?id=16…

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9 years 9 months ago
patriotzed
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Bilbo Bloggins: He figures he’ll rent out the basement for $900 and after 25 years of massive mortgage payments, he’ll own the house. I’m not sure how this is different than renting a main floor suite for $1500 and investing the down payment plus the monthly payment savings. What is different is that the renter/investor will be way better off in 25 years. If those mortgage payments look massive now, just wait until rates go back up even as far as 6%. And they will. The buyer paid 720K which is a price/rent multiple of 300. That is completely nuts. It's a yield before expenses of 4%. Probably 2% net. In the mid-1980's that house would have sold for 100x rent. Using today's rents, that's 240K. In 1980's dollars (inflation adjusted), that's 120K (what houses actually sold for then). I… Read more »
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9 years 9 months ago
anonymous
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I cannot see any future scenario where the multiple will not fall at least as far as 150.

explains why you are a middle aged man living in a basement suite.

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9 years 9 months ago
cashisking
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As I've stated many times before I rent a nice place on Van West for $6,500/month … I just received a 5% increase notice from my landlord – Hah!

I talked to one of the top high end property mngmt people in the city – a friend who found me this place – and he says not only should I not pay it but I should point out that prices for rentals are down 15% in the city (his word's, not mine). He said I should demand a reduction … I had only asked because I wanted to find out what a landlord was legally allowed to raise our rent (3.9% by the way).

I only bring this up b/c some bull's on this blog say that rents will only go up or are stable.

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9 years 9 months ago
anonymous
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6500? Holy shit, almost hits Patriotz' 150 multiple. Must be nice place, might not be that easy to replace and/or hassle with the family.

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9 years 9 months ago
Anonymous
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#17

Rent is down.

West End apartments are $800 again (were up to $1200).

Check Prompton, new 630 sq ft places are going for $1400.

This puts anything older down.

Westside houses, for $6,500 you must be in a brand new 3,000+ sq ft home west of Dunbar or a 4,500 sq ft updated house in Shaughenessy.

Is it furnished for $6,500?

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9 years 9 months ago
anonymous
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West End apartments are $800 again (were up to $1200).

No, not true.

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9 years 9 months ago
cashisking
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You don't actually think I would be able to spend that kind of money on accommodation and use someone else's furniture?!?

6500 at 3.85% for five year 25yr amort = about 1.2mm mortgage – easily 1000/month in upkeep and 600 taxes add insurance maintenance on grounds and pool (yes pool)

Really I pay about 4500 month or 868k mortgage

STILL about 50% of cost and WHEN I get the rent reduction even less.

I understand it's a lot but I've owned several places in the past and you get used to what you like and a family with certain expectations.

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9 years 9 months ago
patriotzed
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Or how about a luxury mansion in Anmore? Not ever finished and they are trying to rent it out? Now why would that be, hm?

http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/apa/1169064317….

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9 years 9 months ago
cashisking
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Too bad its west of granville …

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9 years 9 months ago
Ulsterman
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Anyone else hear Bob Rennie's 30 min infommercial on Christie Clarke's show yesterday? CKNW are so shameless. They let this unbiased "expert" talk without interruption from callers or an opposing-view guest from 30 minutes. Then of course he left before any calls were accepted.

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9 years 9 months ago
deathspiral
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Ulsterman:

#24 U, sorry I missed that one ( not) , BR is such a freakin douchebag. But you're dead right about CKNW and the Corus network, effing slime on a stick.

I'm liking the PR campaign that the MSM stations are all running right now about how they should be allowed to raise proces to ensure 'local, 'quality' programming and fight off those nasty cable companys. It's a big line of BS to try to build up polling numbers to try to get the CRTC to roll over for their lobby and screw the consumer.

maybe instead they could ask Pamela Martin to spend a little less on warpaint and hairspray.

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9 years 9 months ago