Have a healthy recession
Amidst all the bad economic news is one little ray of light: the health of individuals tends to improve during a recession. Death rates actually decrease as productivity drops, with the exception of suicide deaths. People with more free time tend to get more excercise and eat better.
This study investigates the relationship between economic conditions and health. Total mortality and eight of the ten sources of fatalities examined are shown to exhibit a procyclical fluctuation, with suicides representing an important exception. The variations are largest for those causes and age groups where behavioral responses are most plausible, and there is some evidence that the unfavorable health effects of temporary upturns are partially or fully offset if the economic growth is long-lasting. An accompanying analysis of microdata indicates that smoking and obesity increase when the economy strengthens, whereas physical activity is reduced and diet becomes less healthy.
From the 2000 study “Are recessions good for your health?“
May 15th, 2009 at 8:10 pm
The deal just got $10k better!
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/reo/1173094044….
May 15th, 2009 at 3:42 pm
blur:
#53 Blur , great post. What kind of an idiot would have dropped into that deal. $500 ++ K for a sub – 1000 sq ft mini pit in Lougheed. This deserves THE GOLDEN BWahahahahahahahahahah
Flipping Real estate 101 is when you pay NOTHING down and assign the contract for a profit, not take out a mortgage and hold for two years until you've lost your shirt and people are laughing at you for putting hilarious ads like that on CraigsList.
Help Meeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee .
May 15th, 2009 at 2:17 pm
VanBanker:
Most bears had been calling for a correction for quite a number of years. Hardly on schedule. A broken clock comes to mind…
May 15th, 2009 at 1:37 pm
"Dave Says:
May 15th, 2009 at 12:29 pm
Not quite. We have a long way to go before their predictions come true.
Here is what I said a year ago, “… if there is a correction, then I predict values will drop from 10 to 15% (nominally). So, if it breaks 15%, I will have been wrong.
I will further add that a correction of greater than 10% will only occur due to an external factor (e.g. higher interest rates > 1.5%, higher unemployment ~ + 2%, or a recession).”
Not bad, hey?"
There will not be a correction, unless there is a correction (but I'm still "right" because I added some phoney conditions to hedge myself). Way to go Nostradamus.
The correction has come right on schedule just as many predicted. That's 1/1 so far.
The next leg down will be this fall which will make it 2/2. Likely to be followed by a 3/3 after the Olympics in fall 2010. I'm not predicting any further than that yet, because it will depend on the rate and abosolute amount of decline over the next two years.
May 15th, 2009 at 12:29 pm
Anonymous:
Not quite. We have a long way to go before their predictions come true.
Here is what I said a year ago, "… if there is a correction, then I predict values will drop from 10 to 15% (nominally). So, if it breaks 15%, I will have been wrong.
I will further add that a correction of greater than 10% will only occur due to an external factor (e.g. higher interest rates > 1.5%, higher unemployment ~ + 2%, or a recession)."
Not bad, hey?
May 15th, 2009 at 11:37 am
Anonymous:
Is anyone gambling on the stock market these days?
Gambling involves the creation of risk without return. Players put money in a pot and take it out according to some random event. Everyone's winnings is someone else's loss.
Investing involves committing money to capital, which has an expected positive risk-adjusted return. That is, you might make a lot of money, you might make a little money, or you might lose money, but on average you make money.
However when capital markets are overpriced (in a bubble) investing takes on characteristics of gambling, since your return depends not just on earnings of capital but on selling to a greater fool.
Anyway getting back to the stock market, I was buying a few months ago but now I'm selling.
May 15th, 2009 at 10:29 am
This would be a good time to pat one self on the back, for being right all along VHB, Condohye etc.
Is anyone gambling on the stock market these days?
May 15th, 2009 at 10:02 am
For the past several months the deniers have told us that ' we are at the bottom' and at the end of every month they are proven to be wrong. They draw another line in the sand , a little further back, and say "now this is the absolute bottom" and here we are moving lower gain. Real GDP is forecast to lose 6% in Canada this year, this is proving to be an optimistic forecast, annualizing the monthly data it looks more like 12 to 14% negative GDP. That means a lot further to go on the downside and more than double the current number of unemployed as a consequence.
"OTTAWA — Manufacturing sales plunged a surprising 2.7 per cent in March, wiping out the previous month's gains as auto parts producers and Quebec aerospace factories cut back their production, Statistics Canada said Friday.
Factory sales, which have been on the front line of the recession, are now 25-per-cent lower than the peak reached last July, with most of the drop occurring between November and January.
“All in all, the tone of manufacturing in Canada remains quite weak,” said Charmaine Buskas, senior economics strategist at TD Securities Inc.
This 'bottom calling' is becoming like a childrens game, except it's not cute when the MSM is continually printing blatant lies disguised as 'news', paid for by people with an agenda.
http://business.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story…
Is the plan to bleed us to death slowly so nobody gets to worked up and starts demanding government action instead of the blase rhetoric we're being spoon fed now?
Or is it " hey , what about them canucks' for the people in line at the food bank today?
May 15th, 2009 at 9:55 am
Any taker?
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/reo/1172253038….
May 15th, 2009 at 8:40 am
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/2483…
the title says it all really: If You're Not Petrified You're Not Paying Attention
“And I was wondering where all the greater fools were coming from, apparently they all work for the banks. . . “ « Vancouver Real Estate Anecdote Archive Says:
May 14th, 2009 at 10:12 pm
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