Welcome!
VancouverPeak.com- jesse and Makaya are now friends
- jesse replied to the forum topic Sandbox. in the group Housing Data
- jesse posted an update: CMHC starts, completions and under construction in Vancouver […]
- The Ant started the forum topic BC Population Growth in the group Housing Data
- jesse and The Ant are now friends
- jesse and wreckonomics are now friends
- wreckonomics posted an update: New Year, New HPI. ”Selection Broadens and Demand Eases to […]
- Best place on meth and admin are now friends
- jesse and Best place on meth are now friends
- jesse replied to the forum topic February 2012 Daily Numbers in the group Housing Data
Wordpress theme by Abhishek Tripathi of Mediawick Digital Solutions
May 14th, 2009 at 10:01 pm
Denialisrampant:
Don’t get mad, get stoned. Free dope to get you started down your own personal trail of destruction.
That would be the corporate version of “Dope will get you through times of no money better than money will get you through times of no dope.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/F.....k_Brothers
May 14th, 2009 at 9:33 pm
Stevee & reductimat , Getting any kind of information in this town is like a spy vs spy game. I just think it’s relevant from the aspect that if the MSM is doing it’s damndest to suppress information it must be as important to disperse it quickly before the smoke being blown up the collective civilian asses gets into our eyes and the entire population gets zombied out thinking that we live in a place where nothing happens. Is there a ‘lobby’ which tries to suppress and promote certain ideas, sheeesh, it almost seems so.
One little stat that I came across today is that approx 12% of all tech workers have been laid off world wide this year.
Vancouvers tech lobby announced today that 15000 people were employed in the biz here, that information that ws released was from last year. the population has changed A LOT since then. So why did they release this erroneous information, tax re;ief lobby maybe?
May 14th, 2009 at 9:03 pm
“Massive” layoffs. That’s “hilarious”.
May 14th, 2009 at 7:10 pm
Techdeath, thanks for keeping us updated on the layoffs for Microsoft’s In-Game Ad Business Unit.
I’ve been looking for numbers on that specific business unit for years now. Those thirty-eight people that got laid off will certainly leave a world of hurt for any neighbouring country.
Yes, keep up the great “reporting”.
May 14th, 2009 at 3:40 pm
One thing is clear and that is you cannot lose by buying a condo in downtown vancouver right now. Here’s some bull facts for you bears:
1) Interest rates at all time lows
2) Networth destruction party was defeated, leading to cautious bulls re-entering the market after getting jitters prior to the election
3) International investors from asia are back spending lots of money in Vancouver after realising that the best place on earth’s economy is largely unaffected by the “recession”
May 14th, 2009 at 3:08 pm
Techdeath,
I appreciate you posting the information you have access to. Keep the numbers coming, please. It is so hard to get any real info from the MSM these days.
Steevee
May 14th, 2009 at 2:48 pm
Finally it’s said, “Robert Djeikanski is murdered by the RCMP thugs” says expert.
“VANCOUVER — Being Tasered five times by RCMP officers contributed more to the death of Robert Dziekanski than being physically restrained by police, an expert doctor told the Braidwood inquiry Thursday.
Dr. Keith Chambers, a Vancouver epidemiologist, found there were two factors that contributed to the Polish man’s death at the Vancouver International Airport on Oct. 14, 2007 — the five Taser shots fired at Mr. Dziekanski and the subsequent physical restraint by four Mounties.”
http://www.nationalpost.com/ne.....id=1596928
May 14th, 2009 at 2:41 pm
Don’t get mad, get stoned. Free dope to get you started down your own personal trail of destruction.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/200.....free_drugs
May 14th, 2009 at 2:37 pm
Microsoft announces ‘Massive’ layoffs, up to 28% of all employees.
http://www.gamasutra.com/php-b.....tory=23497
May 14th, 2009 at 2:27 pm
Kodak lays off 200 employees in Vancouver, all highly paid professionals, made official yesterday. Another big chop at Nokia this week, really highly paid professionals gone. Some departments shink 90%, others 100%. Not one word in the local newspapers. I guess the speculation about trading Luongo is more important. GM announces mass chopping of dealerships, thats here too. I heard about a major call center getting the axe, about 1300 involved there, I’ll confirm that when they get the bums rush, probably tomorrow.
May 14th, 2009 at 1:12 pm
Apparently the green shoots are starting to wilt. They were probably just weeds anyways.
May 14th, 2009 at 1:10 pm
kersplatt:
I was just about to link that. Very interesting that even in the US where the bust has been on for years, developers still aren’t willing to sell for what the market will bear and think they can do better by holding onto unsold condos. It would be one thing if there weren’t any buyers, but from the sounds of it there were lots of buyers, just not any fools.
Also interesting that they were only planning to sell 20, and then cut it off after 11, when there were actually 48 unsold condos in the building. Which means they’re still sitting on 37 unsold units waiting for the market to bounce back. That’s a lot of money to be bleeding every month.
May 14th, 2009 at 12:18 pm
Wow, with all this increased pressure from the RE shills these days, I think its time for someone to post an updated version of VHB’s chart – you know the one that shows YOU ARE HERE against the backdrop of housing prices historically and graphed on the mean… anyone?
May 14th, 2009 at 11:29 am
VanBanker:
#35. I also love how these monkeys refuse to entertain the idea that a period of real estate price inflation which was thousands of percentage points above thier own inflation targets can not come back down to represent the natural inflation that they themselves have stated is healthy ( ie 2%p/a) in thier control of CPI. Like its OK to let wages stagnate and pensions stagnate and thats ‘nominal inflation’ but pouring the gasoline of low intrest rates into the market place causing massive price inflation is somehow sacrosanct and now that prices are up there they should be defended. It’s laughable.
May 14th, 2009 at 11:22 am
The day they ran out of suckers.
http://globaleconomicanalysis......o-low.html
May 14th, 2009 at 11:21 am
http://business.theglobeandmai…..iness/home
“While falling prices can raise fears about deflation, economists believe the efforts by the Federal Reserve to combat the recession will prevent a dangerous bout of falling prices.”
Yes, because falling prices are “bad” and rising prices are “good.” I love how these guys live in a fantasy world where they fail to notice that all producers (who may benefit from rising prices) are also themselves consumers. Inflation is a stealth tax you monkeys.
May 14th, 2009 at 11:01 am
Whoops, missed adding the fact the record numbers of new jobless claims hit the market this AM. These numbers are stated to be low due to ‘seasonal adjustments’ and blamed on those damned autoworkers losing thier jobs and messing up the pristine rally that had ‘green shoots’ popping up in newspapers around the country.
It seems that green shoots grow best when planted in a thick pile of bullshit.
http://business.theglobeandmai.....iness/home
May 14th, 2009 at 10:56 am
If you told Cameron Muir and the whoremasters at CREA to ‘Blow it out your ass” would they say ” Ice Cream’?
Todays article in the Van Sun is another laughable lesson in Baffle-gab. In the article they refer to prices going down and up At The Same Time’. They seem to want to lie outright but hedge the lie with a tentative admission that in fact things are still going down but further speculate that things are going to get better next year. If you can follow this slop bucket of less than fullsome truths and shameless obfuscation it’s actually funny, sad, despicable and worthy of a Bwahahahahahahahaha. What assholes these people are.
http://www.vancouversun.com/sa.....story.html
May 14th, 2009 at 9:45 am
“Renta Says:
May 13th, 2009 at 6:14 pm
By the way, (off topic) from above. I was at the TD bank yesterday getting myself pre-approved for a future potential mortgage. They gave me 3.65% fixed 5 year. Now I have just sit and wait and see what the next few months brings.”
How far out will they hold that right for you? I thought most banks scaled back to 6 months or one year at most now, which doesn’t seem like enough time to wait for the bottom. I would try and go out at least two years if you can.
May 13th, 2009 at 11:29 pm
From that earlier Van Sun article:
Headline read:
Developers trim prices to keep baby boom buyers in the market
Builders are willing to cut profits to attract customers with assets
However, the reality is:
However, to “be there” in the current market means squeezing margins and exploiting the more competitive market for construction trades to reduce prices on the initial phase of the project some 27 per cent from when the firm first drew up its plans two years ago.
Wow, if 27% reduction is just a “trim”, i wonder what “slashed” would look like?
May 13th, 2009 at 10:30 pm
Renta:
#29 Renta, I agree 100%, what I am witnessing personally and what I read in the papers makes it seem as if there is a parellel universe out there. I see LOTS of store closures, I know of a LOT of layoffs, I see a lot fewer people in the restaurants and stores, I hear stories from bankers, brokers and salespeople that contradict everything I see, hear and read in the MSM. I am convinced that we are witnessing a snowjob of monumental proportion due to the power of the advertiser in a period where the need for money has the editorial staff at very media outlet standing with thier pants down ready to whore themselves to all comers , no questions asked. Our own government admits to selling optimism and confidence as an economic tool to create energy in the market place.
I don’t wish you bad things , but I do think that buying into this market will make you look awfully foolish in 6 months time. The facts suggest continued weakness, the hype is a misdirection by the advertisers and is factually false. The talk of ‘green shoots’ has been proven to be a meaningless catchphrase.
May 13th, 2009 at 6:14 pm
Actually I think it’s going to get a lot worse. I work for an accounting firm that handles bookkeeping for small business. I was talking to a guy that owns an auction company he said he’s “run off his feet” with foreclosures, liquidations, etc. Another guy showed up an hour later from a baliff company with the same story. They both said “what the media is telling us and what we’re seeing is two different things.
I myself have been “run off my feet” as well since tax season. So many companies folding up and larger companies firing their accounting staff and getting us to handle their books for a fraction of the price. Today I worked 13 hours. I’m not complainging though, at least I have a job.
By the way, (off topic) from above. I was at the TD bank yesterday getting myself pre-approved for a future potential mortgage. They gave me 3.65% fixed 5 year. Now I have just sit and wait and see what the next few months brings.
May 13th, 2009 at 6:08 pm
Aleks:
#25 Aleks, if they’re putting the incompetant or least competant people in charge because they cost less, then what happens to the future focus of the business? The solution ( using that logic) would have been to put the cleaning staff in charge and fire everyone. You can’t find lost expertise amognst a group of employees that didn’t have any in the first place. That is why I referred to this company’s radical gutsy shift as ‘fascinating’, it was incredibly ruthless and bold, a WOW move for sure. The body count was stunning.
In the example I was referring to the new structure took over fast and instantly regenerated an entirely new and profit-centric business model for the company. In retrospect it should have been done a long time ago. When I said “marginal players’ I guess it really meant ‘dead wood’. In this case the reorg looks like a stunning success and the survivors are proving thier worth with the ponderous hierarchy now out of the way.
May 13th, 2009 at 4:35 pm
just found out they let some staff go at cibc wood gundy (downtown). now im starting to see the effects of this recession. i just hope it doesnt get too ugly
May 13th, 2009 at 3:22 pm
How we explain the spring bounce in Seattle….they lie:)
http://seattlebubble.com/blog/.....efinition/
May 13th, 2009 at 2:53 pm
“Businesses are getting a makeover, becoming stronger by way of a ruthless reorganization unlike any restructuring that has ever taken place before. A pure play on individual Darwinism; it’s fascinating. The marginal players are screwed, only the very best have survived.”
We had some layoffs, and they were not the marginal players. Seemed like they were cutting people making higher salaries, which meant more senior people, which means that while some people have been promoted into more responsibility (though no raises to my knowledge) they are not qualified for the responsibility. Mostly we’re just scrambling around trying to make up for the lost expertise.
May 13th, 2009 at 2:50 pm
The quality of new houses just keeps going down.
May 13th, 2009 at 1:48 pm
I heard the interview with Mark Carney last week, I also read between the lines and it seems that he’s suggesting it’s highly unlikely that they’ll be able to keep interest rates so low for as long as a year.
Meanwhile people are busy buying up houses…I heard this week of an acquaintance who sold their house to someone as an “investment”-they’re going to rent out the $700,000 property. Sounds like a bad investment to me, assuming they put down 100% cash and can rent it out for $2000/month (it’s a Vancouver special, no suite) and assuming zero maintenance costs(just property taxes of about 2000), the rate of return is around 3%. Well, I guess it beats the stock market these days….or not. I just don’t get it.
May 13th, 2009 at 12:57 pm
mousie:
you ok?
Mousie ?
someone call the paramedics.. oh.. never mind they’re on strike. call a taxi
May 13th, 2009 at 12:11 pm
I disagree that you eat better during a recession.
Good food (versus boxed crap) is expensive a it is…..and now even moreso due to price increases. Poor people are usually fat because all they eat is KD and Ramen noodles (I am being sarcastic, but you get it) because it is the cheapest thing on the shelf.
99 cent noodles or a $15 steak……..hmmmmmm.
May 13th, 2009 at 10:14 am
“Ripping off consumers not as easy as it used to be” ( my paraphrase) says developer as price expectation falls 30% on project.
What? I thought the market was going up! LOL
http://www.vancouversun.com/Bu.....story.html
Also noting ‘ that the flood of cash rich boomers has dried up’ , no….. reallllllllly, with the equity markets falling 50%, amazing call dude.
When BOC governor M. Carney was blustering about ‘leaving intrest rates low for at least the next year’ he was SELLING ‘optimism and confidence’ he wasn’t indicating that everything was rosy and it was a signal to speculate. Of course the BOC wants the consumer to bail them out, but can they? The fundamentals certainly don’t indicate any sort of factually itemable recovery. The call to spend is in fact a desperate cry, you’d think more people could have figured that out on thier own.
May 13th, 2009 at 10:13 am
I almost bit on the “health recession” cheese..but figured it was a mouse trap! Hah!! Could have written a thesis on it. Yeah, #6, back to real estate.
Even though there is a strong correlation between housing and health..
Spinnity spin, dizzyyyooo~~~ Crash!OOUch !*&%*
May 13th, 2009 at 10:04 am
I guess the forces forcing prices down in the USA (job losses in particular) don’t holf for vancouver where we had a net increase in jobe last month due to all those new jobs being created by Tim Hortons and Superstores
May 13th, 2009 at 9:45 am
It seems like there is less bears here lately? Where’d they all go? Phase 2 of the downturn is just starting, get ready.
May 13th, 2009 at 9:39 am
Is it just me or are bond yields starting to creep up again?
May 12th, 2009 at 10:43 pm
“techdeath Says:
May 12th, 2009 at 10:24 pm
The BC election is over, the bad news about real jobs loss numbers etcetera in BC are about to come flooding out. Don’t forget that a political party airs all it’s dirty laundry in the first six months of a new mandate. With a majority the Libs have nothing to fear from the facts.”
I’d love to see that, the truth is painful for people who think the market is about to start partying again.
As an aside: was having lunch with someone who works in another department and mentioned I was renting, they said I should jump in now since we’ve “hit bottom in Vancouver,” I said we’ve got alot further down to go, they suddenly sat up defensively and said “I just bought last month”, very awkward lol
And I was wondering where all the greater fools were coming from, apparently they all work for the banks, and I thought my co-workers would know better…
May 12th, 2009 at 10:35 pm
“Hovering Says:Reply to this comment
May 12th, 2009 at 1:15 pm
Given the predictions that mortgage rates will go up in the coming years I’m thinking that 5.25% for 10 years is starting to look better and better.”
Those types of rates are the only holding up the teetering market for the moment, but things should start crashing again this fall.
May 12th, 2009 at 10:24 pm
A friend in the tech biz told me today that another big chopping bomb went off in a very large company today. However, because of the carnage, the people that are left standing have been given new authorities and powers beyond anything that would have occured if all the current chaos had not occured. These ‘new giants’ have all recieved very large raises along with the global expansion of thier corporate authority.
Businesses are getting a makeover, becoming stronger by way of a ruthless reorganization unlike any restructuring that has ever taken place before. A pure play on individual Darwinism; it’s fascinating. The marginal players are screwed, only the very best have survived.
The BC election is over, the bad news about real jobs loss numbers etcetera in BC are about to come flooding out. Don’t forget that a political party airs all it’s dirty laundry in the first six months of a new mandate. With a majority the Libs have nothing to fear from the facts.
May 12th, 2009 at 5:32 pm
How healthy do you think they are now?
http://www.news1130.com/news/l.....83411_9104
May 12th, 2009 at 4:59 pm
Maestro:
There is no comment because there is nothing to comment on. Nobody starts real estate discussions anymore.
May 12th, 2009 at 4:34 pm
Death rates decrease with the exception of suicide. Wow, fabulous news… now who’s spinning the stats?
May 12th, 2009 at 3:52 pm
Hovering
I couldn’t agree with you more … also look at the seven year 4.5%.
I think it would be insane to to lock into anything shorter than a 5 year. Canada mortgage .com gives you a pretty comprehensive picture … make sure you shop around and lock in when u get the right deal even if you’re not going to use it yet. Remember to either pay off a big chunk each year or save and invest a like amount so that after 5 years (or whatever your term is) you can pay down a significant portion if rates move against you. A good rule of thumb would be 10% per anum.
Sweet spot is if interest rates gap up, house prices will only accelerate on the downside after a short better buy to take advantage of low rates. Either way prices are coming our way girls and boys.
May 12th, 2009 at 3:46 pm
Not sure why all comments were held up in moderation. Hopefully fixed now.
May 12th, 2009 at 1:15 pm
While I’m at it, here’s a website I check out for mortgage rates.
http://www.redflagdeals.com/de.....ageclosed/
I have found that my bank, cibc (shuddder), will grudgingly match ING’s rates if I threaten to go “dutch” (ING is Dutch isn’t it?).
I wonder if they would give me a 5 year closed for 3.75% (today’s the best rate)?
Given the predictions that mortgage rates will go up in the coming years I’m thinking that 5.25% for 10 years is starting to look better and better.
If it falls below 5% I think a 10 year closed mortgage might be the way to go.
May 12th, 2009 at 12:56 pm
great. We’re healthly during recessions. whatever.. and now back to real estate.
Here’s a link to an article about american home owners who can’t sell so they are renting out their homes (and living elsewhere) while they hope the market recovers.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/.....amp;ccode=
I found it interesting because some sellers seem positive the market will take off again while others seem to recognize things might have changed forever.
Last summer I advised a family member to cut their asking price by 20% in order to attract a buyer. They scoffed. It’s still for sale more than a year later.
In my neighbourhood I’m seeing alot of traffic at open houses but no offers. I think one could sell now with agressive pricing and avoid losing money (I think the Vancouver Real estate market is going to fall for some time to come).
May 12th, 2009 at 12:49 pm
What a dose of optimism during a recession! First, I am less likely to get shark bites, my love life will improve and now my health will improve. My stock portfolio is also up about 40%–I’m surprised I’m actually making a profit. Gotta love that.
May 12th, 2009 at 11:23 am
Second leg of price declines begins as banks begin to release huge inventories of foreclosed houses into the market.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/.....refer=home
The next and much larger wave of foreclosures to come due to Alt-A and OPTION ARM mortgage failures is now hitting the banks as they struggle to artificailly bouy the value of current inventory by stockpiling ‘ghost inventory’ in order not to create chaos in pricing. It looks like the tactic hasn’t worked and the banks are being swamped with new waves of foreclosed properties.
Those people holding off from selling because of a hope for an improving market are truly SOL based on the tsunami of inventory the banks MUST clear off the books in exchange for stimulus money.
May 12th, 2009 at 11:05 am
Great topic. I’ve always thought that the frenetic pace and tendency to disorder that goes along with big changes in economic activity are bad for you. Now that it’s put in front our eyes in a set of simple statements, it’s almost intuitive that it should be that way.
May 12th, 2009 at 10:47 am
Is this blog/site broken? Can’t see comments.
May 12th, 2009 at 10:37 am
“maybe I walked into this too fast” says presale owner now being sued for walking away from his $400,000 condo purchase in LeDuc Alberta,
http://www.vancouversun.com/Bu.....story.html
Ya, and maybe you should have your head examined if you’re in the same situation today. The price of condos has fallen again for the 8th straight month. Anyone see a pattern forming here?