Current score: -10 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

I’m about to put an offer on a 1.475 million dollar home near kerrisdale. I’ll rent it out for the remainder of the year and take it down next year. I think I should be able to list a new home on that land for at least 3.25million to start.

Current score: -12 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

No he is inferring that population growth is reasonably consistent so there should be a relationship between base population and housing starts.

Whatever, though. As mentioned, dwelling growth should be around 10,000 to absorb in-migration. Most demos that destroy existing stock make way for higher density properties so likely no help there.

Current score: 0 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/fin…..weden.html

Yes. That and potential failed UK and US bond auctions.

Current score: 1 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

The more excess supply that is built, the better it is for the buyers and the worse it is for the sellers.

Build baby build.

Current score: 5 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

Current score: -11 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

Current score: 5 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

Ignoring the effect that changes in the total population have on housing requirements.

Certainly, X people would require Y housing. However, I believe that the required replacement- of said housing- would be a function of the age and condition of the housing; and, in turn, how it relates to the current and future needs of the population. Does the gentrification of B.C.’s population have an effect on housing? As such, knowledge of the total population is only useful if it can be used to prorate the results from other know populations- if they are similar.

Nevertheless, the inference was (correct me if I am wrong) that if one knows the base population, one can then reliably, and accurately, predict the level of new construction which is required to house that population.

Let’s use an example. Russia has a population of ~ 140 million; therefore, Russia need to build 140,000 homes this year. Uganda’s population is ~ 31 million; therefore, Uganda should build 31,000 homes. Does this accurately describe the housing needs of these two countries?

The level of construction activity is material, in that, it indicates future supply; and,more importantly- future jobs.

However, I agree, low yield rates are, probably, the most concerning variable to bulls. Although, I have never done the research, I would not be surprised: if one could purchased a million dollars of real estate in a place such as Phoenix, and live(rent) in Vancouver for free (using the income from their investment properties).

Anon, you and I might have different- and legitimate- interpretation of the same data- who knows. However, BS is BS.

This blog will become a waist of time: if I have to spend time checking the validity of the data, which is used to support augments; and, contemplate (intentionally?)dubious logic- I think I will go outside.

Current score: -1 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/fin.....weden.html

Current score: 3 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

methinks an echo chamber is boring (how many ways can you say “look out below”?), so props to Dave for making people justify their positions and at least keeping some sort of dialogue going.

Disagreeing with the consensus isn’t being a troll.

Current score: 7 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

Unfortunately, Octo-mom and Brangelina earn more advertising revenue than good, in-depth, critical financial reporting. Developers and realtors have money to spend on advertising. There’s not much incentive to be a great reporter anymore, which is too bad.

Blogs are great, but we need some trustworthy larger organizations who have the resources to track complex difficult stories and put a national spotlight on them. All these bailouts, development deals and corrupt CEOs should be hammered by the press, and it’s not happening…just a lot of soundbytes at the moment.

Current score: 5 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

Current score: 4 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

Wow. I’m convinced. I’m going to spend the hundreds of thousands in my savings on condos now. You’re logic was ironclad.

Fail.

Current score: 5 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

Current score: 6 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

You know, one would think that those writing about such issues in a prominent mainstream media outlet would actually have some idea about the subject matter. But I guess that’s too much to ask as they didn’t go to school to become experts on a particular topic, but to become “reporters.” I wish that journalists would trademark “Reporter” the way that realtards have trademarked Realtor. Then we could pre-emptively dismiss what they write.

Current score: 1 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

I can tell you similar situations have come up in several projects in Greater Vancouver already, so it’s not an isolated incident. But also, it’s not like I expect an avalanche of these either.

Current score: 5 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

Current score: -21 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

Current score: 0 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

—Vancouver Sun

Interesting. Terrible writing, though.

Current score: 4 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/briti.....ml?ref=rss

I can tell you everyone in my office, and other banks in the city, are worried about this type of thing, we have seen alot of sloppy papering.

Current score: 5 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

Current score: 0 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

Well, non-residential building permits drop 36.5% in value in BC for April.

What will they think of next?

Current score: 7 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

Over the last 5 years in greater Vancouver, housing starts have been running 18-21k/year, while population growth has been about 26k/year. The average number of residents per dwelling is 2.43. The number of new dwelling needed per year for this population growth would be: 26k/2.43 = 10,700. Even if you assume fewer residents in condos than SFHs, it still appears there has been significant overbuilding the last 5 years.

Sources: (you should try them sometime Dave) ;^)
Source 1
Source 2

Current score: 15 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

Do you have data to back that up? Check out the BC Stats population estimates (PDF). Combining Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley and I only get between 30K and 38K annual population growth since 2000.

So much for most of the population growth being in the Lower Mainland.

Current score: 7 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

That’s population growth for BC but most of it ends up in the Lower Mainland. The point is that the current volume of real estate under construction doesn’t appear to be very alarming when one considers historic construction rates (per pop.) and population growth.

This is what 60,000 people looks like:

http://tinyurl.com/o3lctj

Current score: -4 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)