Credit problems in Canada
Mish Shedlock has an interesting post comparing the alarming jump in Canadian credit delinquency to the situation in the US. More than 500,000 Canadians are now at least 90 days behind on credit payments, hitting a delinquency rate of 1.52% (compared to a US rate of 1.32%).
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York has Dynamic Maps of Bank Card and Mortgage Delinquencies in the United States that some may wish to consider.
In regards to mortgages, Canada has some “catching down” to do, and it will. All the bubble areas such as Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto, etc are going to get hit hard.
Hat-tip to Adrian for the link.
July 9th, 2009 at 10:12 pm
Mish has the numbers of unemployed millions higher than is being reported. I suspect the same here. The 'unable to collect' numbers are the real story. The growing welfare rolls and the underemployed are a big number. This is a good read to get an extrapolation going as to what is happening in Canada.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/0…
July 9th, 2009 at 8:13 pm
Pope:
I second BBY's motion.
Please return the numbering system for posts.
Thx !
July 9th, 2009 at 7:57 pm
Oh one more thing – you are also ignoring elasticity of supply. What happens when house prices go up to twice normal multiples of income? You get whole towns of empty houses, like in the US or Ireland, that's what.
July 9th, 2009 at 7:55 pm
It is possible to imagine an economy in which house prices are infinitely high in relation to incomes. How then could people afford to buy houses? They don’t; they inherit houses from their parents.
You are making the fatal mistake of ignoring the rental market. Who in their right mind would buy or continue to own a house that they could sell for, say, $10,000,000 but could only rent for $2000/month. The answer of course is nobody.
That is the reason why house prices always adjust to a competitive return on rental income regardless of how irrational owners are. Investors must become rational in the long run, otherwise they end up broke.
July 9th, 2009 at 6:35 pm
Just a clarification: I think the "one" billion dollar signal is maybe for all tax revenue, corporate and personal. Or it could mean a one billion dollar deficit.
Anyhow, I'll stop speculating when we get a straight-forward answer.
July 9th, 2009 at 5:54 pm
Hey Pope, the comments no longer seem to be numbered
Hope you can fix that. Thanks for your work 
July 9th, 2009 at 5:41 pm
Colin Hansen raised his index finger, indicating "one". That's one billion dollars less revenue from corporate income tax than expected. Holy carp!!! He couldn't say it.
July 9th, 2009 at 5:15 pm
Oh boy, Vanoc desperate for eyeballs. Province cancels elective surgeries during O-Games so that patients " can watch the games". I thought forcing the schools and government buildings to close was scaping the bottom of the barrel.
The reservation rate or (buyout) is only half of what we were told. This means few rich groups are planning on coming to Vanc for the games.
El Nino is back ,that means no snow for the games, oh oh, can you say total bust. I don't doubt that the chidren will be forced at gun point to prove up the backdrops of the empty venues.
Looks like North Flase creek is surrounded by shit on two sides. Homeless refuse to move and false Creek is reeking. Great investment dudes.
Provincial deficit goes through the roof. The 500 milllion projection is falling away fast. Expect a real zoo when theres no money for anything EXCEPT Olumpic fatcats feasts. What is greggy Robertsons big idea, a 50 million dollar bicycle bridge. What an asshole.
July 9th, 2009 at 4:40 pm
No, it's not correct; the denominator of the unemployment rate is not the total population, but some version of the total working-age population. 100 of 1 year-olds are unemployed, so it would be ridiculous to lump them into the unemployment rate. According to the US BLS, the total civilian labour force as of the second quarter of 2009 is about 155 million.
July 9th, 2009 at 4:40 pm
Does anyone here recall what the Woodwards units were originally sold for at presale etc – a range? There are a bunch of them for sale again now on craigslist.
July 9th, 2009 at 4:09 pm
grindingtoahalt: "This has to be the best enviornment to buy a house ever!!!!"
Correction, This will be the best…
I'm just waiting and keeping my powder dry. It's gonna unravel big time in this city…
July 9th, 2009 at 4:07 pm
Coming soon to a strata council near you… bankruptcy!
http://www.dailybusinessreview.com/Web_Blog_Stori…
Just wait for it – we will be reading stories like this in the Sun 2 years from now.
July 9th, 2009 at 4:03 pm
"Bloomberg reported that the budget office, which is headed by Kevin Page, foresees economic contraction of 2.4 per cent this year, followed by 2.2 per cent growth next year and 3.5 per cent growth in 2011.
The budget office is also forecasting bigger job losses for the country, suggesting that as many as 530,000 jobs could be lost this year, and as many as 700,000 next year."
http://www.canadianmalcontent.net/forum/viewtopic…
Flahrety is trying to shut this guy up but the bad news keeps coming. The jobs loss numbers are in the thousans a day category now and are expected to accelerate according to most independant experts.
This has to be the best enviornment to buy a house ever!!!!
July 9th, 2009 at 3:25 pm
100,000 Canadian Jobs Lost over the summer.
Big Bad Numbers come out in late edition of National Post
http://www.nationalpost.com/news/canada/story.htm…
No recovery seen until 2012.
July 9th, 2009 at 3:23 pm
Why would the City of Vancouver invest tax payers dollars treating sewage when it can spend the money building Olympic Villages and market condos! 2050 until tertiary treatment complete, ha! We'll all be long dead before this is done because the city is going to lose its shirt on the Olympics.
July 9th, 2009 at 2:46 pm
I guess these people never heard of a land making machine
" Four nabbed in ghoulish scheme to dig up graves in historic Illinois cemetary"
Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/news/us_world/2009/07/…
July 9th, 2009 at 2:45 pm
I see that Warren Buffet is calling for a 'second stimulus'and predicting an 11.5% unemployment rate. I have been reading that approximately 15 million people in the US are currently unemployed. At 11.5% this represents 30.06 (or roughly double) million people from a population of 306 million. Is that right? Seems like that would also mean that Canadian unemplymnet has a lot of upside as well if we mirror the US by a 10-1 ratio. Get out the ugly stick.
http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUST…
Why would I buy a house in an enviornment of rising unemployment again?
July 9th, 2009 at 2:25 pm
Ok VanBanker , I'll tell my kids they can get into the water anytime after 2050. Meanwhile, the political pressure is on to hide the 'shit' about a lot of things in Vancouver. The deniers and the apologists will have to look at, smell and have their dogs and kids get seriously ill because the COV 'shiity council' has decided to keep the issue silent and pretend it away.
The problem we have in Canada is a lack of objective reporting, its all advertising based. So, if a reporter in the MSM writes a hard story about the city, RCMP, FED & Provincial government or major industry they immediatley get threatened with a 'loss of access'. Meaning they are threatened financially and the boss freaks out and pulls the story, whether its good or bad. The Conservatives pulled this stunt when they refused to allow reporters to ask questions or interview parliamentarians until the MSM in Ottawa stopped lambasting the Party with rabid Liberal diatribe. It was a real bulldog way to deaL with an offensive Liberal medai but the point has been well learned and now everybodies doing it.
The effect has been to shut down criticism in the CDN press. Now that the recession in the medai is on full blast, we have effectivley zerp objective reporting. In fact in the case of Corus aka CKNW they had decided to become a cheerleader and taking off the mask of unbias journalists altogether.
This ploy leaves most people ( public) completley in the dark about the facts of the issues around them. Their 5 minutes of information gathering a day is limited to the propaganda and BS that comes out of the Braying Whores in the pages of the Province and The Sun. Ignorance is not a good thing, but its a very effective tool whaen it comes to crowd control. We have a whole lot of that in BC.
So VB, I and quite a few others are aware of the BI-National pressure that has been put on the City of Victoria and Vancouver to clean up their act but so far the province has reigned in their own crown prosecuters from applying the sanctions already placed on the government for breaking the law under the Federal Fisheries Act. Ipso Facto the Province and the City are openly flaunting their ability to circumvent the law by placing the file in the limbo bin even though they have already been convicted on several counts.
So the COV web page says that they are going to do something over the next 50 years. What that really says is FU to the public. As long as they can keep the issue OUT of the news, they're gold. Its going to take open warfare from the public and that will only come from keeping these issues IN the news with the help from the International press. Only by embarrasing the shit out of them ( great pun) will we ever see any action.
July 9th, 2009 at 1:35 pm
VanBanker: if you’re going to have negative-rated comments disappear, I would suggest something like a minimum of -5 before they go
This change is to fix that problem – comments will hide below -10, but you'll still see the posters name and expand to read them if you want. This way garbage will be hidden, but reasonable comments can be rescued from troll moderation oblivion.
July 9th, 2009 at 12:43 pm
"realpaul Says:
July 9th, 2009 at 10:34 am
Refi madness has abated and precious nothing is selling over 500K"
Reapaul is right about one thing, we;ve heard from our clients that under $500k is the sweet spot, anything over that will have difficulty selling. Not surprising at all since that represents the maximum level of affordability for the average income earner with minimal down payment.
July 9th, 2009 at 12:31 pm
"The Pope Says:
July 9th, 2009 at 9:26 am
testing a new feature – there is a small x underneath each comment avatar. clicking this will hide the comment text. Next step is to automatically hide negative rated comments. Just need some free time to do some code crunching. As always feedback on this feature is welcome."
Hi Pope, I would make one suggestion: if you're going to have negative-rated comments disappear, I would suggest something like a minimum of -5 before they go, otherwise some of the trolls could make legitimate comments disappear.
July 9th, 2009 at 12:31 pm
More signs of the bubble bursting – I just saw a full page ad (back page) of 24 newspaper from (I believe it was) Quantum Homes in Coquitlam. Luxury 2 Bedroom Condos reduced from $389K to $294K ..
July 9th, 2009 at 12:26 pm
yaletowngirl Says:
July 8th, 2009 at 5:19 pm
“Victoria discharges about 21 billion gallons of raw sewage a year; Vancouver has primary treatment, but 38 billion gallons per year miss the treatment plants altogether and are spilled over through combined sewer overflows [sewage, storm water and toxic runoff–waste from Vancouver’s industries, which include electroplating:"
I'd just like to point out two things:
Victoria was ordered by the provincial government recently to have primary treatment of their sewage, and the City is hoping to have it in place by 2016 at the earliest.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2…
Vancouver is slowly replacing all of their combined sewer pipes with separate sewage and storm water pipes, so there will be no more overflow problems once it is complete. Unfortunately, they only replace `% of the system per year, so they target completion by 2050.
Burnaby is doing the same and has a target completion of 2050 for Vancouver Sewage Area outflows, and 2075 for Fraser Sewage Area outflows.
New Westminster seems more ambiguous, but says they're also doing at least 1% replacement per year.
http://www.metrovancouver.org/about/publications/…
July 9th, 2009 at 12:26 pm
oneangryslav.
Re rents and rentals
Good points.
What I am now observing, and a phenomeon I hadn't seen before, are people advertising " rooms for rent" with signs and sandwich boards on or near their front sidewalk. Many of these "rooms for rent" are monster homes on good neighbourhoods.
Rents are declining and vacancy is up, or vice versa.
Many buyers had bought these monster homes, in fact, turn these monster homes into boarding houses, before the crash…this had been another phenomenon that likley added to the market demand. Now this class of landlord is seeing less demand and perhaps an inability to pay the mortgage.
The expert you quoted is a classic example of missing the big picture. When the perfect storm hits of people who can no longer afford to keep their homes ….. an oversupply of homes …..and a collpasing economy all align concurrently, rents don't go up, its an "oversupply" meets "cash – strapped" renters market.
July 9th, 2009 at 12:06 pm
Canadian in Cali , Girlbear et al
Keep up the good work with you insider views of what goes on behind the scenes in the financial/investment sector and what their crystal ball is showing. Very enlightening. There are many ways to manipulate and tweak the truth, but it ultimately delays the same end result.
My view is the Feds see the tsunami is coming which has about a 2 year lag phase from its origins in the US.
On the political front, perhaps PM Harper sees its and yet still wants power, Iggy may also see it and says no thanks to being in charge now.
Shell recently anounced the possible closure of a major refinery in Quebec, Shells' largest in Canada, 75 years old.
Not much good news out there across the board.
July 9th, 2009 at 11:51 am
realpaul:
Well said.
This surreal economy makes no sense.
All I am seeing is small " ma and pa " builders building now. Many of them had projects ready to go, but were on hold for the last 6 months. Many of these are at the excavation/pre-load stage, and probably won't start till Fall. Completion?..likley next spring…hoping for Olympic hangover?
I don't see any of the big developers starting anything now….which is its own warning sign. Seems like a lot of naive wannabee builders are the only ones building now.
Interesting point re: the browntown builders ,another " canary in the mine ". I see their old "new" inventory finally sold off, and a few new starts…but as you say, they may simply be "make work" projects to keep the crew busy. Many of these are simply built to live in for a short time , sold, make the capital gain , and move onto the next one. However, if this market freezes ie no "greater fool" buyers…watch out, could get very ugly.
July 9th, 2009 at 11:51 am
So another economics genius admits that he got things a little bit wrong. Here's Daniel Indiviglio, business affairs reporter for the Atlantic Monthly:
:
He goes on to explain his logic and how he could have got it so wrong:
Yeah, hoocouldanode that a collpase of the housing market (upon which the entire US–and global–economy was based from about 2001 on) would cause the economy to falter a bit. I guess you don't have to really know too much about economics to be a business reporter for the august Atlantic Montly.
July 9th, 2009 at 11:50 am
One useful rule of thumb is that house prices should average roughly (say) 3 years' income for the people living in them. If the average person can't afford to buy the average house, house prices are too high, and will eventually fall, because people won't be able to buy them.
But all rules of thumb need to be understood theoretically, to try to understand why they work, and why they might stop working.
The argument from "affordability" doesn't really work. It is possible to imagine an economy in which house prices are infinitely high in relation to incomes. How then could people afford to buy houses? They don't; they inherit houses from their parents. That's an exaggeration of course. Some parents don't bequeath their houses to their kids; and the population grows and new houses get built and sold. But it still contains an element of truth; a rise in house prices makes houses more expensive to buy but also creates the extra wealth to buy them with.
But perhaps people don't want to tie up 6 years' income in housing? Perhaps they would prefer to downsize to a cheaper house worth only 3 years' income, and spend the freed up 3 years' worth of income on other stuff? And if everyone tried to do that, house prices would fall until they were only 3 years' income, and people stopped wanting to sell their houses.
But that's not right either. How much of your income do you want to spend on housing? The right way to think about that question is in terms of rent: what percentage of your income do you want to spend on rent, either by explicitly renting a house, or in the opportunity cost sense of not renting out the house you own.
Suppose there is some equilibrium rent/income ratio. People want to spend (say) one fifth of their income on rent. (And we need to define "income" here to include the implicit rental income from owner-occupied homes). If real interest rates were 10%, spending 20% of your income on rent (which means 25% of your income narrowly defined) would mean house prices equal to 2 years of full income, or 2.5 years of narrow income. Halve the interest rate to 5%, and those price/income ratios will double.
The equilibrium ratio between house prices and income will vary inversely with long-term interest rates.
Back to the savings glut.
Suppose the savings glut was real, it wasn't all just loose world monetary policy, so that real equilibrium interest rates were indeed lower than normal over the last 10 years. And suppose governments eventually have to stop running deficits, and start saving again to pay down national debts. And suppose the private savers of the past 10 years want to keep on saving in future. And suppose the dissavers of the last 10 years want to start saving to pay down their debts. And suppose the financial crisis creates a long term fear of debt and dissaving so that those who would otherwise have dissaved don't do so in future. And suppose investment demand does not increase in future.
Then equilibrium real interest rates will stay low, or go even lower in future. And then equilibrium house prices will stay high, or go even higher in future. And maybe, just maybe, the anecdotal evidence of the Canadian housing market is not just a weird dead cat bounce. Canada, with its relatively OK financial system, may be the bell-wether for what an eventual world recovery would look like.
That's an awful lot of "supposes". This scenario could be very very wrong. And I'm not saying it will happen. But I can't convince myself that it can't. I just don't know.
Recent post from Carleton economist Nick Rowe
July 9th, 2009 at 11:16 am
I wish it weren't so, but pals of mine were in bidding wars over properties in the $600 – $700 K range as recently as two weeks ago, purchasing for $40,000 above asking. Panic over rising interest rates has made seemingly sensible people do really senseless things. On a much "lighter" note however, looks like there are going to be a ton more layoffs as the government continues to cut funding to non profits and social workers join the ranks of unemployed. No sector appears safe as this continues to play out.
July 9th, 2009 at 10:34 am
Reading through the local rags I see that the hype and pump machine is running loose again. It's a wonder to behold. The US unemployment numbers are really grim as they continue a downward spiral. There is some spin that tries to state the numbers as 'positive' but I think any one with half a brain in their heads can see through the BS and denial. As usual, no release of information in Canada. Hmmm.
"The non-seasonally adjusted figure increased by about 17,000 to 577,506 initial claims.
Still, continuing claims jumped 159,000 to 6.88 million, the highest on records dating from 1967. Analysts had expected 6.71 million continuing claims."
"The four-week average of initial claims, which smoothes out fluctuations, fell to 606,000, down more than 50,000 from its peak in early April.
Still, claims remain elevated: they were at 367,000 a year ago."
Some salient points from the NYT. The most important figures are the claims, for they are forward looking indicators. The other number to watch for are the estimated 600,000 whose claims run out in September… "
I am still seeing plenty of layoffs here in BC. The fudging of the welfare numbers in BC were typical, not accidental. The real story is not to be found in the Province, Sun or COV website. The officail practice is deny deny deny, just like at the Braidwood Inquiry, where it was proven that the RCMP lied 100% of the time. Hmmmm.They sure didn't like that. We now see even reporters getting beat down and their pictures confiscated to try and avoid a repeat of the public 'outing' the cops got when they could no longer hide the truth. Same with everything else to do with our government. Its all BS all the time.
The number of FTB's getting suckered into this low intrest rally is finite. like a pyramid scam. I confirmed that with a banker friend yesterday. Refi madness has abated and precious nothing is selling over 500K, meaning the market is drying up. This is why I believe we're seeing the hype and pump machine turning up again. They want to get ahead of the curve and try to entice a few more suckers into the shark cage. The hype and pump whores are quietly NOT talking up the sales numbers but are now focused on 'building permit apps'.
Don't tell me that browntown contractors are the leading edge of the wedge. I think its more like desperate builders and contractors who haven't seen a paycheque in six months pouring their own money into projects to try for one last deal before the whole family is titters. Thats why we are seeing so many non-traditional lenders popping up on the sign boards. Its small money jumping into the fire, not smart money building on a successful pattern.
Too bad more people couldn't figure this out. There'll be a world of hurt out there when interest rates start going up.
July 9th, 2009 at 9:26 am
testing a new feature – there is a small x underneath each comment avatar. clicking this will hide the comment text. Next step is to automatically hide negative rated comments. Just need some free time to do some code crunching. As always feedback on this feature is welcome.
July 8th, 2009 at 8:22 pm
Ya…the Olympics. I think a big part of this RE bubble has been fuelled by the Olympics propaganda. People have been conned into thinking that after the Olympics EVERYONE and their dog will suddenly want to live here.
Meanwhile, in the real world, I had two cousins visiting a few weeks ago, one from Washington, DC, one from New York City. I mentioned something about the Olympics coming here…both of them said "Oh, I didn't know Vancouver is hosting the Olympics, when is it?" I would guess that many people in the world have no clue about the 2010 Olympics, much less are planning to come.
July 8th, 2009 at 7:45 pm
No second half recovery. Ten cool charts detail the ugly situation.
http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/the-financial-…
July 8th, 2009 at 7:27 pm
Vancouver has officially announced a 'crackdown' on the homeless who will be forced out of any 'security zone' ( downtown vancouver). NDP critic 'out's' the Vanoc asswipes and claims the move is for optics not security, I agree 100%. Is this why they have shut the dragon boat gang out of False Creek? Because they don't want the press to actually see the carpet of feces , needles and condoms floating outside the 'athletes village'. I bet that 'for security reasons ' the press will be shut out of the seawall in front of the 'village' so that no photos can be taken.
We have been right in our suspicions all along. The bums ( its OK to call them bums now that they have officially been recognized as a threat) are being brutalized by the Vanoc and COV whores. I'm so proud.
The building wraps which will cover the vacant and run down buildings will probably hide the sewage outfalls as well.
So far the people on this board have also been right about the militization of the city and the population control. Protesting will be met with brute force is the plan.
From the real estate perspective I think Van Crapper is going to flush itself down the toilet of history because of the Pimp- lympics. Outside of the official government sponsored websites and hype, there is only total apathy or complete anger about the waste that has taken place. I don't see any private citizens supporting this event.
The expectation of a boom created by the Sno-Job will be the catalyst that sinks values in this berg for a generation. Prediction… Campbell will have resigned withing 2-3 months of the end out. The numbers will be withheld from the public and then the shit storm will break out.
July 8th, 2009 at 7:00 pm
Not quite true Supraboy…
The developer of the site where the Ritz was to go is "considering" starting contruction again. Maybe in the fall, or possibly next year. Article also says the structure will be downscaled to a more modest 4 star property. And Ritz Carlton has not said if their name will be attached.
My guess is if now a 4 star property…they are out.
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/british-columbia/story/2009/07/...
July 8th, 2009 at 5:37 pm
ABC and oneangryslav,
They are being helped by family. Whether inheritance, parental home equity borrowing, or whatever.
July 8th, 2009 at 5:19 pm
I found this article. What happens to real estate values when False Creek is backed up by sewage and people get cancer from going anywhere near it? Will the world press report on it and really turn people off from coming here?
Laurie MacBride, executive director of The Save the Georgia Strait Alliance (SGSASGSA Sociology Graduate Student Association is in no doubt as to which city is doing the most harm to the marine environment. "Victoria discharges about 21 billion gallons of raw sewage a year; Vancouver has primary treatment, but 38 billion gallons per year miss the treatment plants altogether and are spilled over through combined sewer overflows [sewage, storm water and toxic runoff–waste from Vancouver's industries, which include electroplating:
In parts of Burrard Inlet, 80 percent of the English sole have precancerous precancerous /pre·can·cer·ous/ (-kan´ser-us) pertaining to a pathologic process that tends to become malignant.
pre·can·cer·ous
adj. tumors and lesions, probably from fossil fuel hydrocarbons in the runoff."
July 8th, 2009 at 5:16 pm
Ritz Carlton project is back in action,Economy indicators shows economy is out of recession end of year,and Vancouver real estate already sky rocketing sales and prices.I like to say thanks to all the posters of this site.It was not possible without your contribution you have put in these blogs days and nite,our economy has recovered faster than expected specially Vancouver real estate rocks.
July 8th, 2009 at 5:02 pm
BBY:
Oh oh BBY is trying to hide behind the 'shoot the messenger' ploy. To bad you're insulted by your own ignorance douchebag. Let me guess, youre job depends on hiding the facts and you bought a place in False Creek and you're trying to sell before the Olympics news crews 'out' the COV for it's abysmal practices. I for one will be sending the crews lots of updates for site production before they come.
" From the Van Sun Archives.
Public health and safety threats are escalating in Metro Vancouver because an aging sewage handling and treatment system will fail more often as a result of climate change, according to a federal report uncovered by The Vancouver Sun. The report says heavier rainstorms will frequently overwhelm portions of the region's sewage system and accelerate the spill of raw sewage into Burrard Inlet and the Strait of Georgia.
That means more raw sewage will be dumped into the ocean more often, in apparent violation of the Fisheries Act. Senior regional officials and politicians have in the past been threatened with prosecution under this act, although neither the federal nor the provincial government has to date shown any inclination to enforce it.
More raw sewage spills also mean more health risks to people using the inlet for recreation – swimming, windsurfing, sailing and fishing. Environmental groups, including the David Suzuki Foundation, were outraged to hear about the contents of the report. They are calling on regional and civic governments to act now to "avoid potential disasters including extreme impacts on human health caused by system failures."
Lick it up, twisted and perverted one.
July 8th, 2009 at 4:54 pm
Hey Griffin: Denialisrampant is hung up on sewage because it is his fetish. Perhaps he got the idea from the South Park episode featuring Mr. Hinky, the Christmas Poo. They called the fetish "fecalphilia" or something. But South Park probably seems like reality for Mr. Denialisrampant. After all, he kinda sounds like Cartman, dontcha think???
And correction: Denialisrampant did appear to post a Macleans article. Care to share the date and issue with us? Or would that make us lazy and stupid. Not sure if you've ever written an academic paper in your life, but they don't really pass if the bibliography consists of "look it up yourself, stupid".
I still think you're a troll.
July 8th, 2009 at 4:46 pm
As the renown investor Sir John Templeton said, "The four most dangerous words in investing are 'This time it's different."
July 8th, 2009 at 4:45 pm
Sorry Denialisrampant, your source-less and wit-less response identifies you as a troll. Simply put, you suck at life. Now STFU. Everyone else, just mod him down into oblivion and move along…
July 8th, 2009 at 4:43 pm
Denial, Jeez personal attack much? Like BBY's posting above mine, I'm a huge RE bear (hence the reason I'm on this blog) and by no means do I think Van is the best place on earth. All I asked for was your source for all the numbers you're quoting. It's called academic integrity.
In any case, thanks for the Mclean's article. I'm not denying that many Canadian cities discharge sewage into our waterways but let's also get a little perspective. The Mclean's article states that Vancouver provides at least "primary" treatment before discharging to the ocean, and the 22 billion litres is a mix of storm drain runoff and waste water. Your fantastical argument that there are no pump stations to pump sewage out to Iona was proven wrong by the link BBY posted. All the pump stations in the city of Vancouver are underground.
Honestly I'm not sure why you're so hung up on the sewage thing. Yeah it's gross, but what's your agenda? 90% of the people on this blog are already bearish about RE in this city and the fundamentals alone are enough to indicate we're in for a deep correction without the need to keep talking about shit.
July 8th, 2009 at 4:43 pm
Canadian in Cali – well said. I couldn't agree more. I work in your industry and also spend my days running numbers on investments, and cannot make any sense of what is going on here in Vancouver. Neither can my colleagues.
One thing that I notice that is different than the American way of doing things…here I see the same houses sit on the market for a year (or more) and no asking price drops. They just sit there. In the states the seller seem a little more eager to actually sell the property. No takers in 3 months, drop the price, still none, drop again.
If I had an asset I was trying to sell and no one was biting, I would lower the price….but maybe I am not thinking straight…cuz you know, it's "different" here.
Sigh.
July 8th, 2009 at 4:32 pm
BBY:
#41 BBY, ya, you're a real savvy one alright. Your quest for knowledge is pretty limited pal. What does the Province forecast for you? Looking at the official website of the shitty AND believing that BS makes you look pretty stupid