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July 8th, 2009 at 4:28 pm
Independant News Source quotes ‘in excess of 1 billion litres of raw sewage per day dumped into Georgia Strait’
“Each day over 1 billion litres of domestic
sewage from Victoria and Vancouver
are dumped into Georgia Strait”
http://oceanlink.island.net/ON.....er/ON4.pdf
July 8th, 2009 at 4:13 pm
woops , quick typo mistake. That should read 800 million times 365 = 29.2 billion. I still think the number is low because of the official info not being released for years due to politicial reasons.
July 8th, 2009 at 4:08 pm
Griffin:
#42 Griffin, you’re either Google Stupid or Google Lazy. I pulled up the info with one sweep.
Now, you’re either a COV shit head shill or just another dumbass deep in denial. And no I am am not here to help you think or give you a lesson on how to use research tools. Foor the rest FYI, heres a blurb the Macleans published not long ago.
SEWAGE TREATMENT is a complex and expensive issue, one Sierra has been tracking with a series of report cards for more than a decade. Progress is often slow, and grudgingly made, says Werring. In the 1990s, Sierra filed private charges against the Greater Vancouver Regional District for dumping massive quantities of primary treated sewage in the Fraser River and the ocean. The charges, taken over by the provincial Crown, together with pressure from the federal Fisheries Department, forced upgrades to some of the region’s treatment plants, says Werring. Two Vancouver-area plants, however, still discharge sewage with only primary treatment, pouring many chemicals and toxins into the ocean. Overflowing sewers spill as much as 22 billion litres of storm and waste water into Georgia Strait each year.
As I said the official numbers are low. What the case disclosed was 22 billion litres per year , divided by 365 ( thats ‘days per year’ for the reality challenged Griffin, equals 29.2 Billion litres of discharged toxicicity laced raw ubtreated sewage per year.
Of course the ‘Shitty of Van-shitzone’ isn’t going to put this information on their website you dumbass. Maybe you should also Google ‘TIDE’ as well genius to see what happens when the poop comes back. Hint hint, it lays on the beach with you and your fantasy friend.
July 8th, 2009 at 3:55 pm
ABC: Thanks, ABC. Yes, of course, all of our anecdotal evidence (mine included) is anecdotal, but at least it gives us a glimpse of the market.
It seems as though our circles of people are similar demographically, with one notable exception. None of the couples in my circle of friends is yet interested in having children, despite mostly being in their 30s.
The school district angle is a new one, although I know that I could more easily afford to live in a “good” school district by renting rather than owning. And if the school district worsens over time it’s much easier to move to a better district if one is renting versus “mortgage-paying.”
July 8th, 2009 at 3:44 pm
Despite the example of US bubble markets, we seem to be making a lot of the same mistakes. The recent georgia straight article about first time buyers that couldn’t handle rates going above 4% was astounding, but one part of it I haven’t seen comments about is this:
I hear a lot about ‘more responsible’ lending in Canada, but how does this fit in? A loan of that size to this couple would have to be based on fraud, would it not? What repercussions are there for these pushy lenders? Do they get the commission and then get to walk away? Is there ANY regulatory body that keeps them in line?
If a mortgage broker counsels me to commit fraud to get a jumbo sized loan that I can’t afford, is there somewhere I should be reporting that?
July 8th, 2009 at 3:22 pm
oneangryslav: By “people around me” I mean:
Between 30 and 40, professional, double income combined over 100K, married or engaged with kids on the way, all previous renters. Part of the driver is school district and being close to family. Of course this is only a small sample and may not be representative of the population.
July 8th, 2009 at 3:18 pm
I have been trying to warn people in Canada to little avail. I work in finance as a professional institutional investor in the US but am originally from Canada (went to grad school in the US and then stayed). I spend all day valuing assets and monitoring markets – here is my take:
In my opinion the bubble in Canada may actually be bigger than the one in the US. Mortgage rates are way below their “correct” level (7-8% historical avg.) via govt intervention and the sheer amount of debt is shocking. The govt is the main driver – by insuring the vast majority of mortgages at low short term rates with no downs, huge debt/income ratios, etc. it is like printing money for the banks as they don’t bear any default risk. It drives bank revenues (fees, up front pmts, etc.) Mortgages should be fixed for 10 years plus and amortizations should be limited to 30 years. Finance 101 says loan terms should match the asset life – this hasn’t changed.
As job losses accelerate and prices start declining everyone defaults a vicious cycle ensues as bankruptcies move up the credit chain to “prime” and pushes prices down further. California real estate looks cheap compared to Canadian property (and the decline is accelerating here) now so what does that tell you? Tax revenues are down 40% in the US which driving the government toward collapse.
Also, I know some prominent and successful condo developers in Vancouver and financing for construction has basically been shut down since last year. The bankers know what is coming and won’t lend a dime on a commercial/construction basis to anyone. The banks only continue to lend to individuals because the loans are guaranteed by the government. I did the math on the mortgage market in Canada and I estimate that the Cad. govt guarantees a total of ~$800 billion of mortgages at this point – this amount alone is almost twice the current national debt.
July 8th, 2009 at 3:04 pm
BBY’s link is better… guess we thought the same thing when we read denial’s post.
July 8th, 2009 at 3:00 pm
Hey Denial, do you have any links to sources for all these sewage numbers? I got nothing when I googled “vancouver dumping sewage” and the city’s main site seems to indicate that all sewage is treated at one of the 5 treatment plants before being released into the ocean.
source: http://www.metrovancouver.org/.....fault.aspx
July 8th, 2009 at 3:00 pm
Denialisrampent and realpaul: I was curious about the bombastic facts you claim about hundreds of millions of litres of raw poopy sewage pouring daily into False Creek and Burrard inlet from the dozens of outlets. So, I googled the city of vancouver sewage and came up with the following link that seems to dispel your fanatical foaming at the mouth diatribes:
http://vancouver.ca/engsvcs/wa.....erview.htm
Now, I’m as bearish as they come on Vancouver RE, and would gladly dissuade people from relocating to the “Best Place on Earth” ™ (yeah, right). However, I equally disdain bad arguments and outright BS.
Please provide some comment or clarification that reconciles your “facts” with the information given in the link I provided to the COV water engineering department. And also please provide sources for the 800 million litres of raw sewage a day figure, and others like it. If not, then STFU. The rediculous RE bubble in this town is easy enough to disparage with infantile and trollish BS.
July 8th, 2009 at 2:13 pm
VanBanker:
#39 VB, Oh contraire mon frere. The ‘Shitty of Vancouver’ dumps 800 Million litres of raw sewage in the waters of Burrard inlet and English Bay every single day. Now thos are only the ‘official admission’ figures that are currently years out of date. With the exponential growth in downtown Vancouver which pumps 100% of it’s raw sewage into Burrard Inlet, English Bay and False Creek I assert that the number is FAR HIGHER. This makes Victoria’s raw sewage issue look like a a single flush from a small boat compared to Vanshitty.
Think of this ….do you see any pumping stations anywhere in the downtown core? It would have to be a freaking big one about the size of BC Place to handle 800 Million Liters a day. Now realize that the lack of a pumping station and gravity won’t lift that effluent over the hills from downtown to IONA ( which can’t handle the small flow it recieves now). Do you know of any pipes running up from downtown OVER the hills of Kerrisdale and down the hill to Richmond. Big hint….there aren’t any. All the sewage goes straight into the ‘supernatural waters’ of the Bay.
If anyone wonders what the black crap lining the seawall of False Creek is or the sludge that coats the tidal marks everywhere in the Bay are, think no more, it’s fresh human shit. Every one that just flushed a big dump or a needle down the toilet just flushed it directly into a water way near you. That what makes False Creek such a pig sty.
Starting at 5AM the Shitty of Vanshitzone workers skim the crap off the beach at English Bay EVERY DAY to make it pretty for the unsuspecting tourists. It comes back and coats the beach at every high tide. Thats every day for the non nautical people.
The thing is that most people either don’t know, don’t care or are in such deep denial due to personal or financial reasons that the secret sewage dump continues unabated without political disturbance.
False Creek has 26 sewage outlets alone. At the bottom of main street there is a 12 foot pipe which gushes out shit 24 hours a day, there is a city CCTV camera right there to momitor the flow, it isn’t as if they don’t know or something, I have seen the tape rolling, its disgusting to see it.
At he tip of Kits Point there is a 10 footer which you have to walk over if you want to go around to the maritime museaum from the beach. I don’t understand what people don’t get about the existence of that one , it’s so ‘in your face’ you can’t miss it. it ain’t candy floss compadre.
So anyway, I just heard another rediculous statement reported by the CBC coming from an outfit named Argus Research. They claim that affordability on all housing has improved this year based on pre-tax income stats. Argus claims that only 34% of pre tax income goes to housing. Now, the last time I checked the direct and indirect taxation of Canadians added up to 70% ( this is the idea behind tax freedom day and why it gets further away every year). So if after tax I only have 30% of my income left to pay for things like food and housing, how do get an additional 34% out of 100?
If thats the case it’s no wonder everyone is going backwards in this country and debt is increasing so insidiously. The first 70% goes in taxes, the rest is housing, when do the kids get to eat? By this equation my debt service is 104%!!!! That makes perfect sense because the most recent stats indicate that household debt in Canada is 138%. So… that means food and clothing are going on the credit card and adding 34% to my debt load every year. Thanks Argus and the CBC I feel a whole lot better about the affordability thing.
July 8th, 2009 at 1:02 pm
“It’s impossible to feel sorry for all those people who choose to lay in feces soaked sand along English Bay.”
Wow, never though about it like that before, now I’m glad the few times I go to the beach I always bring a blanket.
But are you referring to untreated waste from Victoria or here? I thought we didn’t have untreated sewage anymore, only untreated solid waste going to landfills.
July 8th, 2009 at 12:59 pm
ABC: Please don’t down rate these types of comments! They give us a different perspective. Having said that, I’d like to know more about what ABC means by “the people around me”. Are you someone who just signed a free-agent contract with the Canucks? Do you work as a barista at Starbucks? That is, how would you characterize (demographically) the “people around” you?
Thanks,
J
P.S. As for the people “around me” (household incomes averaging over $100,000 annually), most are relatively long-time home-owners, but those who are not currently paying a mortgage are mostly satisfied renting for the time being. One married couple (early 30s) are chomping at the bit to buy, but every time they run the numbers they back off. Another married couple (late 30s) bought about a year ago (I wish I had got to them in time) and just their mortgage payment is about twice what they’d be paying in rent. In addition, the wife’s parents helped with the down payment. I wonder if her parents realize that they most likely did their daughter more harm than good.
July 8th, 2009 at 12:59 pm
ABC
“From what I’ve been seeing the people around me buying, they are buying with 25% down at least. Also I heard the income verification process is a lot more robust this time ’round. I’m not a bull, but this is just what I’ve been seeing”
So then I take it they were all RE bears waiting for the right time to buy with 25% on the sidelines? Interest rates were too high before, but now they can afford? If so, great. The capitulation of the last bear marks the end of the bull market. The capitulation of the last bears, with CASH, is even better…
As for income verification, my banker used to be the top mortgage broker at TD during the first 4 years of the boom. He admitted that he personally qualified many individuals that would not be approved had the banks adhered to their traditional lending standards. At his current bank (one of the top 5), he noted that things have not really changed in terms of approvals and income verification. He noted that this particular bank is, and has been, a lot more conservative in its lending practices that its peers. But perhaps that is an isolated case.
As an aside, after 1 year of RE discussions with him (on the US market, Vancouver market, impact of the housing crisis on the stock market), I convinced him to sell his condo and rent, which he did 2 months ago. Even he, when faced with rationale and evidence backed arguments, coupled with his own personal experience and “insider” knowledge, realized that the current Vancouver marker is unsustainable.
July 8th, 2009 at 12:42 pm
The market has re-inflated because the last wave of FTB’s with no money is capitalizing on the cheap, easy credit. If rates were higher, they would not be in such a panic to buy because they would not be able to afford it. And just as they could not afford RE last fall during the RE downturn when rates were higher, so too will they be unable to afford RE once rates rise (as you are predicting).
From what I’ve been seeing the people around me buying, they are buying with 25% down at least. Also I heard the income verification process is a lot more robust this time ’round. I’m not a bull, but this is just what I’ve been seeing..
July 8th, 2009 at 12:40 pm
Also from the Demographia report:
All of Canada’s “severely unaffordable” markets were in British Columbia, including Vancouver, Victoria, Abbotsford and Kelowna. Canada had 10 affordable markets, the largest being Winnipeg (3.0).
The most affordable markets were Cape
Breton (2.1) and Thunder Bay (2.2). Other “affordable” markets included Chatham, Windsor, Moncton, Saguenay, Saint John (NB), Trois Rivieres and St. John’s (NL).
July 8th, 2009 at 12:26 pm
“Among the major markets, Vancouver is the least affordable, with a Median Multiple of 8.3, followed by Sydney (8.3), San Francisco (8.0), San Jose (7.2), Adelaide (7.1), Melbourne (7.1) New York (7.0) and London (6.9).”
July 8th, 2009 at 12:25 pm
No bubble in Vancouver? I don’t think so …
http://www.demographia.com/dhi-ix2005q3.pdf
July 8th, 2009 at 7:43 am
MrBear: That means the dog is eligible, so you count it.
Including people ineligible for credit in a count of people delinquent on credit payments would be like including water buffalo in a count of dogs with rabies.
July 8th, 2009 at 6:31 am
JD: Because a year or two ago you could walk your pet into the bank and get a HELOC on the dog house?
July 7th, 2009 at 10:47 pm
Mark: Why would you ever include the people who aren’t eligible for credit in a percentage count for delinquencies?
July 7th, 2009 at 10:17 pm
Turns out to be not quite as bad as shown.
While the 1.52% rate is correct, it’s not 1.52% of all Canadians, but 1.52% of Canadians eligible for credit (~28 million). So the number is ~420 000 – still quite large.
http://www.bnn.ca/blog/10523.html
July 7th, 2009 at 9:17 pm
Yalie:
You mean like this place?
http://www.realtor.ca/property.....Id=8345690
They are asking 279K for this 439 sq ft, um, modified trapezoid (cheapest listing at TV towers). If they are difficult to rent at 1200/month, that means they are really worth little more than 100K. Interest alone at 6% (and yes that’s coming) would be 1400/month on the asking price. 30 listings at TV towers right now. No bubble here, folks.
July 7th, 2009 at 8:09 pm
RE: falling rents. A friend of mine is looking for an apartment in Yaletown. Looked at brand spanking new TV towers. Apparently there are few takers of the oddly-shaped 1 beds at $1200/month. The leasing agent, who all but admitted to being semi-desperate, said she would consider any “reasonable offers”…
July 7th, 2009 at 7:52 pm
Things are looking strong on the Island. *cough*
http://www.bclocalnews.com/van.....49032.html
July 7th, 2009 at 7:42 pm
Found it, five year projections.
http://www.cknw.com/News/Natio.....?id=123615
Occupancy rates in Hawaiian hotels 50% below normal for this time of year. News gets better and better. Think all those tourists are saving their bucks for 2010 Olympics and their new vancouver condo they’ll buy new at the False Creek sewer pit!
July 7th, 2009 at 7:35 pm
Heard the Federal Govenment has understated deficit by over 50%. Should be closer to $150 billion according to independent think tank. Anyone seen article on this?
July 7th, 2009 at 3:44 pm
“Except that housing crash started a full two months before the BoC cranked up the interest rates.”
The RE downturn in Spring 2008 occurred even with low and declining BoC rates. It wasn’t until the rates reached their all time lows in early Spring 09 that the market picked up.
If RE prices were declining when rates were low and/or declining, imagine what will happen when rates rise….
July 7th, 2009 at 3:25 pm
“the last time rates went up in a RE “bull market” in BC, property prices plummeted, so your assertion that higher interest rates will keep prices up lacks any historical relevance.”
The reference, of course, is the 81-82 period…
Except that housing crash started a full two months before the BoC cranked up the interest rates.
July 7th, 2009 at 3:24 pm
Well except the part about dropping rents- that’s true.
July 7th, 2009 at 3:07 pm
“Ummm – last time rates went up in a RE “bull market” in BC, property prices plummeted, so your assertion that higher interest rates will keep prices up lacks any historical relevance.”
Dude, I was been facetious.
July 7th, 2009 at 3:04 pm
“the last time rates went up in a RE “bull market” in BC, property prices plummeted, so your assertion that higher interest rates will keep prices up lacks any historical relevance.”
The reference, of course, is the 81-82 period…
July 7th, 2009 at 2:54 pm
#13 gvrdpropertyowner
Ummm – last time rates went up in a RE “bull market” in BC, property prices plummeted, so your assertion that higher interest rates will keep prices up lacks any historical relevance. While you might think that rising rates (designed to combat inflation) will lead to a rise in RE prices, not all asset classes follow that model. In inflation rises, paying 2 or 3 times the current mortgage rates will decimate many new RE buyers in Vancouver. Affordability will erode in that situation, leading to greater pressure on prices, and an eventual decline in prices.
And your assumption that new buyers will maintain their “25% downpayment” is really far fetched. There is a reason why zero down/40 year mortgages, and now 5% down mortgages, have been so popular – because FTB’s do not have 25% down anymore! They are lucky if they have 5% down, and even then that is usually due to parental assistance.
Zero down/40 year mortgages permitted those without money to buy an asset class they could not otherwise afford. So while banks once had more stringent lending standards, and required 20% downpayments, the banks have abdicated financially sounds policies in favour of risk free profits from CHMC insured mortgages.
The market has re-inflated because the last wave of FTB’s with no money is capitalizing on the cheap, easy credit. If rates were higher, they would not be in such a panic to buy because they would not be able to afford it. And just as they could not afford RE last fall during the RE downturn when rates were higher, so too will they be unable to afford RE once rates rise (as you are predicting).
July 7th, 2009 at 2:43 pm
Canadian or American beer only share the name. Real beer is a totally different liquid!
July 7th, 2009 at 2:35 pm
The debt ratio’s are over the top in Canada and thats shitty too. Its been a comedy of irresponsible governance to have politicians pushing more debt onto people by lowering intrest rates that they know will have to go up by factors of 4 and 5 in order to contain the current inflation. Typical short term thinking by politicians who get to bail on a fat pension after only a few years in office.
Let’s not confuse the politicians’ motives here. Interest rates were lowered in lockstep with US rates in an attempt to limit the rise of the $CD and save manufacturing jobs in Ontario and Quebec.
The subsequent effect on the RE market might be seen as an added bonus, or collateral damage, depending on your point of view.
July 7th, 2009 at 2:32 pm
The Canadian hubris, thinking everything is “better” than the USA from banks to beer.
You’re not trying to make a case for American beer are you?
July 7th, 2009 at 2:19 pm
i havnt seen this vancouver housing/money blog before
http://www.investingintelligently.com/
July 7th, 2009 at 2:15 pm
Luckily, thanks to first time buyers, rents are coming down- providing relief for those who need to pay down debt.
A condition that should remain unchanged for the foreseeable future: as a lot of renters are currently entering the new and improved bull real estate market, while some other renters lose their job.
I just hope that those who have just bought a home don’t end up becoming the ones who lose their jobs.
Oh well, not to worry: they will always be able to sell it for more than they bought it for, and if not, the worst that might happen is that they might lose a small amount of their 25% down payment.
Well, hopefully, the economy will get better soon, stopping the job losses and causing interest rates to rise- that should keep real estate prices up, and delinquencies down.
July 7th, 2009 at 1:37 pm
rado,
Vancouver only has 600,000 people. Poster #1 is not far off. Which city in Canada do you know of have 5 million people?
July 7th, 2009 at 12:37 pm
Wow! Looks like some people are taking ‘do not pay for 90 days’ a little too far. Check out that Globe and Mail article that denialisrampant linked to – Bankruptcies are up 31%!
Take a look at the graph of consumer bankruptcies in that link. We’ve got a problem in this country that ‘good beer’ won’t fix.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....le1208996/
July 7th, 2009 at 12:31 pm
rado@freemarkets.ca: Aw c’mon, I was only a zero off, that’s not so bad.
Point taken though, and fixed.
July 7th, 2009 at 12:31 pm
I believe it. I grew up in a small town and keep in touch with some childhood friends. Quite a number of them didn’t go on to pursue higher education, getting married early instead (and then divorced) or just bumming around the world, never settling on a career, and I’ve noticed that a number of them have HUGE amounts of debt-student loan debt, credit card debt, car loans etc. Oh dear, oh dear, as an accountant this makes me feel sick, all that debt among people in my age group-early thirties. What will become of these people-bankruptcy eventually I guess. It’s a terrifying prospect…
July 7th, 2009 at 12:29 pm
I was listening to Croatian radio last night and there was an extended report on the effects of the global recession on this summer’s tourist season, which habitually swings into high gear after July 1st. (Most of Croatia’s tourists are from Europe–Germany, Italy, Czech Republic, Slovenia, mostlly.) In most parts of the Dalmatian coast, nightly lodgings are down between 35-50% compared to the same period (May 1st-June 30th) last year, and the first few days of July have offered little reprieve.
There was a revealing interview with a charter boat operator, who claimed that the very rich didn’t seem to be hurting, while the middle class has been decimated. He went on to talk about the extent of the penny-pinching that was occurring.
When Czechs (and Slovaks) first started vacationing in Croatia in large numbers, they were unique in that, unlike the Germans and Italians, they would load up their cars, vans, and campers with a week or two worth of groceries and wouldn’t spend any money in the restaurants or stores. Many would find very cheap accommodation and a family of four could literally spend less than 100 Euro per peson for a week’s vacation in Croatia. Needless to say, most Croatian businesses dependent upon tourism were contemptuous of these penny-pinching Czechs.
Fast forward to this summer and even the German and Italians have “gone Czech.” Even those who have enough money to charter a boat for a week have brought all of their food with them and are not spending any money at Croatian restaurants, bars, etc.
In short, reports of the global recession’s demise are exaggerated and premature.
July 7th, 2009 at 12:29 pm
Anonymous: Yeah, the beer thing is pretty ridiculous – there are good small breweries everywhere, and the biggest Canadian and American brewers are all pretty generic.
Banks I’ve got no way to rate, but I’m hoping we’re not as bad as the US or we’re all screwed. I mean, they’ve got an economy, where we’ve got wood and oil. We used to have some fish and industry, but they’re gone. If we get in a serious national financial crisis, who’s going to pull out of it easier?
July 7th, 2009 at 12:23 pm
I thinks that ‘Portrait’ but point taken. This cheerleading by the local MSM pimp machine is nothing more than lipstick on a pig. The fundamentals continue to deteriorate.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....le1208996/
July 7th, 2009 at 12:14 pm
The intoxicating allure of cheap money reminds me of the Oscar Wilde story ‘A Picture of Dorian Gray’. The facts behind the smile are fairly gruesome.
http://www.vancouversun.com/Bu.....story.html
I was reminded again of the shallow phony facade of Vancouver when they pimped the ‘sexy beach’ story. It’s impossible to feel sorry for all those people who choose to lay in feces soaked sand along English Bay. They really should name the city ‘Denial’. I have never been in a place where people had their collective heads so far up their asses.
Me, I’m a zero tolerance guy when it comes to handling, living by, walking past, swimming in, any amount of human feces.
The debt ratio’s are over the top in Canada and thats shitty too. Its been a comedy of irresponsible governance to have politicians pushing more debt onto people by lowering intrest rates that they know will have to go up by factors of 4 and 5 in order to contain the current inflation. Typical short term thinking by politicians who get to bail on a fat pension after only a few years in office.
July 7th, 2009 at 12:12 pm
http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....le1208996/
July 7th, 2009 at 11:45 am
That’s 500 thousand, not 5 million. Still quite bad, though…
Btw, the housing bubble has been restarted in Oz: http://forum.freemarkets.ca/topic.php?id=685
July 7th, 2009 at 11:32 am
The Canadian hubris, thinking everything is “better” than the USA from banks to beer. Too many Canadians seem to think it’s patriotic to be blindly optimistic.
July 7th, 2009 at 11:24 am
That’s 500,000! A city the size of Vancouver filled with delinquents.