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Sure, just give it 200-300 years.

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Its not just dishonesty in our media. They are just part of our real estate cult. They are owners too. So if they honestly believe what they are saying, its not really dishonest (or at least, not entirely).

The Vancouver real estate cult must be baffling to outsiders. You can’t go to a party without people chatting up real estate purchases or their latest home renovation. They’ll even talk like they got a great deal when they massively overpaid.

When the housing bubble pops here, it will be more than an economic phenomena. It will be interesting to watch how our local culture reacts.

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I think my point is mainly that I have been looking at vancouver in comparison to other places for a while and I think that’s pointless now as it really does seem there is a different mentality that goes against what should be happening. The media for a start is outright dishonest in its attempts to pump real estate in a way I haven’t seen elsewhere – in Europe anyhow, not sure about USA.

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However, reading these comments (and without getting into a is vancouver one of the best in the world or not discussion) I think people need to realise that prices in vancouver are likely to ALWAYS be higher – maybe considerably so – than the other Canadian cities just as prices can be considerably higher in desirable neighbourhoods of the same city. Whether some here agree or not, Vancouver is desirable – especially to people who might have just visited for a week and caught it during a sunny spell, or to our fellow Canadians who hate three months of snow.

I’ve travelled a lot and IMO Vancouver’s quality of life for people with stable jobs and a bit of cash is excellent, and there are plenty of people who will put up with the rain for what else is on offer here and the surrounding area.

However, it’s equally true that people don’t watch Olympics on TV and then buy a house. They might dream about it but I’ve fantasised about moving to a nice European city for years but haven’t done anything about it. It’s the same with people thinking of moving here.

I immigrated here from the UK. It took over a year and now takes longer. It took a lot longer to actually make the decision and even then I nearly didn’t come – and my then girlfriend/now wife is from here (she nearly came to the UK instead)! By the time anyone is old enough to consider moving to another country for lifestyle reasons, most people have a solid network of friends and family (including their own kids who have their friends, etc) and it can be hard to leave that to start completely from scratch when you are in or approaching middle-age (the only immigrants who can afford to buy real estate). Then there’s retirees but I simply don’t see Vancouver as a retirement hotspot – and again why leave your grandkids and lifelong friends for a drizzly climate?

So I’ve never believed the Olympics hype or any of the immigrant stuff. The people buying houses in Vancouver are mainly Canadian. People who think our high prices are caused by non-Vancouverites should be far more worried about Torontonians and Albertans as it’s a lot easier, quicker and less risky for them to make the move. And they are likely to have just as much money as foreign immigrants.

I have come to the conclusion that Vancouver may well end up like Manhatten, central London and indeed most European city centres with lots of people renting – often for their entire lives. My only doubt here is that these other cities are generally bigger with better job prospects and higher wages. So it’s a strange one – I genuinely think Vancouver is quite unique and trying to predict what will happen is impossible. Let’s face it – it’s one of the youngest cities in one of the youngest countries in the world so comparisons are difficult.

I now intend to stop watching the market and reading these blogs and just buy when we are sure we can afford it, and without comparing the price to other cities or countries as it seems increasingly fruitless to do that. At the end of the day, there may well be a premium to pay to live here – and whether or not you think the premium is worth it would depend on just how much you like the city balanced against how much you want to own a home. The good thing about Canada is if you are prepared to move, Montreal Ottawa and Toronto, and even farther East are damn fine places as well – just with more snow. Calgary not so much. I’ve been reading these blogs for coming on 3 years now and I’ve decided it’s unhealthy.

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Excerpts:
“Okay, this is a shocker,” said Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. “We’re not talking about a shot across the bow of the optimists, this is more like a torpedo through the hull.

“It’s not just the consensus that will be surprised by this result — the Bank of Canada has been loudly proclaiming lately that growth would likely surprise to the high side of their July forecast in the second half of the year . . . .” Porter said.

..Wednesday’s surprisingly weak report was in stark contrast to recent data showing strong signs of economic recovery — especially in the retail and housing sectors.

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That $5 bucks a month is already getting chewed up by the increase in the HELOC increase everyone got this past month from the friendly banksters. For sure when you have bidding wars in MetroTown you know the insanity has really taken over. I mean really, how can you say ‘investment’ and ‘Metro Town’ in the same sentence without laughing?

Meanwhile, economists are ‘shocked’ that the Canadian economy is stalled after the government announced an increase in June of a roaring .001%, that was supposed to have been the turning point, Bwahahahahahahahahahaha!

http://www.vancouversun.com/bu.....story.html

What part of the truth are people grasping for? Is it the part that makes them feel all better? Is it the part where the great leadership Mommy suurogate kisses the boo boos away and tell them that everything is fine? OMG, it’s just too funny. Or is it as simple as that?

A persistently ‘strong’ Canadian dollar has been publicly growled at the PTB in Finance for weeks now. Is this another shot at getting the $CDN to weaken again against the collapsing $USD in the apparent race to the bottom?

We all knew that the general economy wasn’t doing well. That fact has been explained away by the hypsters as ” well, it will be a jobless recovery”, and such BS. But the fact is that no private expansion has taken place and balance sheets are showing negative growth.

Thats why there is no job growth. It certainly hasn’t been growth in productivity. The ‘increase’ reported in Junes numbers were adjusted figures that represented a hypothetical ‘shot in the arm’ that showed up in ‘ghost jobs’ numbers created on the books by the stimulus money staining the books of government but not backed up by a flood on main street.

I am not shocked, are you? This shockingly poor economy has been written about on blogs like this extensivly , so give yourselves a pat on the back for not being entirely naive or stupid.

BTW, I got back from Europe yesterday so no more reports from that side of the pond.

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I agree. Thus my ‘close to zero percent’ estimate that Vancouver magically transmorphs into some kind of monetary-political safe haven for… who?.. millions of Chinese millionaires?.. during…what?.. a time of global unrest and hyperinflation?…(Or of any other unexpected scenario along those lines.)
But, given the absolutely whacky monetary moves we have seen thus far from various governments, and given that Vancouver stands out globally like a sore/soaring thumb (depending on perspective) of bullet-proof RE ‘investment’, the risk is not absolutely zero.

—
PS: The mere fact that bears like myself are entertaining ways in which this bubble just possibly MAY continue ad infinitum, is in itself a sign of a top, in my humble contrarian opinion.

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This is the argument that Vancouver will become the new Monaco, with wealthy folks attracting each other and higher prices driving even higher prices (a la the Chandler suggestion).

One has to distinguish between a RE market being expensive and in a bubble. There are and have always been expensive places to live – both to buy and to rent – because the people who live there make a lot of money. That’s normal. It is not normal for prices to be out of whack with rents – that’s a bubble.

As I have already said, if rich buyers were supporting prices, there would be no need for people like Chandler to be making her pitch to the general public.

There is no credible scenario for increasing real median incomes, and thus increasing real median rents in Vancouver. This is the only way that current median prices can be supported. Inflows of rich people may result in gentrification of a few areas (i.e. increasing real rents which support higher prices) but in no way can support higher rents, and thus higher prices, metro wide.

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Guy I used to work with. Had lunch with him a few weeks ago.
He tells me he bought a pre-sale down at the Olympic Village the week before.
So I get curious and start poking around. I ask him which building and turns out he doesn’t even remember.
He says it’s not exactly in the Olympic Village, but it’s next to it. He tells me it’s 630sf and the price was $399,000. Completion is more than 2 years away.
The more and more I talked to him, the more clueless he turned out to be.

Me: It’s kinda small. Do you plan on living in it?
Him: Nah, I’ll probably rent it out.
Me: What do you think you could get for rent?
Him: I’m not sure. I’ll probably break even.
Me: Do you know how much strata fees are?
Him: Doesn’t say. I’m sure it’s not too bad since it’s small.
Me: Hmm… are they holding a low mortgage rate for you?
Him: No, my pre-approval is with RBC.
Me: Rates could be quite different in two years time.
Him: Well I can always sell it. Worst case I’ll probably break even.

After a while, I felt really bad cuz it seemed like I was grilling him in a police interrogation, so I thought I should change the subject.

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Please raise your hands if you are jobless right now. I bet all of you are working and making money, therefore, the real estate markets will not tank.

I’m sure everyone here has a job and constantly post their gibberish here during their downtime. This city is so freaking unproductive, yet we all get paid +50k and complain about high real estate prices. It ain’t high if everyone’s pulling in good salary.

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More mainlanders from China to invade Vancouver next week. If you people have a clue, there’s a real estate tour from China to Vancouver during China’s national holiday. Jack the real estate up baby! All aboard!

Happy economic times coming around the corner and let’s celebrate!

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Another way of looking at it is if the “Rich Whatevers” are driving the market, why are the developers spending so much money to market their projects to ordinary local people?

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Your anecdote reminds all of us that it is not “Rich Asians” or “Rich Albertans” or “Rich Whatever” that are buying all this expensive real estate. No, its just average fools with average incomes who have too much access to cheap, easy credit. I’ve never been so sure myself, but I don’t talk anymore either. I don’t want to be remembered as the doomsayer and somehow blamed when it all comes to pass.

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