Will that be a V or a W recovery?
Just when you thought it was safe to rejoice over the quick and painless economic recovery, now we have both ‘experts’ and ‘hot tub makers’ claiming that we’re in for a W shaped recovery. In other words, we’re right smack dab in the middle of the W and looking at another drop, rather than at the end of a ‘V’ shaped recovery.
So what do you think? Are we all good, or are you concerned about more economic lean times ahead? Is the jobless recovery a possibility, or is it just wishful thinking?
October 1st, 2009 at 7:40 am
It is an "M" shaped economic cycle….not a recovery by any stretch of the imagination, for the last leg of the M does not go up.
September 23rd, 2009 at 1:27 pm
@observer:
If the mortgage is CMHC insured the bank will renew your mortgage no questions asked. CMHC is holding the bag on default, not them. They bank just wants you to keep making payments, which is why they loaned the money in the first place.
September 22nd, 2009 at 10:56 pm
@Anonymous: I'll go out on a limb here. Vancouver prices will be lower *next year*, by 10-15%. As Mish says, governments and central banks have fired every bullet at the deflation monster and it's still coming. Credit is contracting, shipping has dried up, and outside of Wall Street and "free money programs" there are no signs of a wider recovery.
I expect the stock market to crash this year or early next year because the valuations are simply ludicrous. It's safe to say that without the stock market bounce people would not be hearing any of this "green shoots" nonsense. That being said, real estate prices move slowly and our government will doubtlessly throw buckets of good money after bad trying to prop up the housing market. So a crash could play out over 5 years or more. But the mania should be stopping soon. This is the last call for idiots who are about to lose their jobs this winter.
September 22nd, 2009 at 10:40 pm
"…Paul Martin implemented between 1988 and 1993."
Uhm…. that would be Mulroney's man (our current ambassador to the US) Michael Wilson for most of that time. Good try though….
September 22nd, 2009 at 10:39 pm
"…Paul Martin implemented betwen 1988 and 1993."
Uhm…. that would be Mulroney's man (our current ambassador to the US) Michael Wilson for most of that time. Good try though….
September 22nd, 2009 at 10:26 pm
97 X /dev/null :
Isn't ths OLD news…..the Chretien Liberals downloaded, robbed and gouged to acheive their so – called fiscal prudence ?