Bulls and Bears: prediction face-off
Both of these articles are worthy of their own discussion, and I’ll probably add the links to the Friday Free-for-all, but I thought some of you might like to talk specifically about them. First off Dave points out this very bullish prediction from Helmut Pastrick in the Vancouver Sun:
He predicted that, on an annualized basis, the overall average home price in B.C. will climb to a new high of $463,800 by the end of 2009, erasing recession-era losses, before advancing to $497,800 in 2010 and $534,800 in 2011.
And as a counterpoint Jonathon Tonge over at the America Canada blog lays out the mathematical reason why a housing market crash is baked into the boom:
RSS 2.0 comments feed. leave a response, or trackback from your own site.Using this model we can clearly see that by 2016 Canadians will owe an average of 263% of their gross incomes to residential mortgage debt.It’s impossible figure I know. But that is the point. In fact it is unlikely that we will go above 125%, something that will occur by mid 2010.To the bulls and bears, please put aside your emotions. A real estate correction is written into the cards. It’s a mathematical must.
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Crash Says:
October 22nd, 2009 at 10:16 am
Mr. Pastrick obviously has an axe to grind in that it’s in his member Credit Union’s best interests to keep pumping this bloated R/E market. His predictions have not been accurate in the past and I just disregard anything this guy has to say. Unfortunately, the media love to lap this propaganda up because it’s easy ‘reporting’ for them. I even had an aquaintance email me the link to this story; I guess she feels sorry for me that I am waiting out the market and she must think I should get in now before prices increase further.
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Hovering Says:
October 22nd, 2009 at 10:42 am
what would you do if you were in charge?
should we regulate realtors ? bank “economists”? or let the markets flow free?
It seems to me that real estate should be regulated in some way to prevent the sky-highs and barrel scraping lows.
How about legislating a requirement for a 20% downpayment?
what if a person was only allowed to own a personal residence, vacation home (in certain locales) and any number of multi-unit properties where the rental suites were of a minimum size ?
no more basement suites ?
something’s got to change. Real estate should mean an affordable place to live, not a way for amateur speculators to make money.
We have lost our way..
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/dev/null Says:
October 22nd, 2009 at 11:02 am
Interesting model. I wonder if one could consider changes to the proportion of Canadians that are homeowners – I assume that this has increased over the last decade. I don’t know economics so I’m not sure what that would do – flatten out the curve a bit?
It might make things look a bit better looking backwards, but I think if you consider demographics the forward looking picture is even worse than the model suggests. By 2016 the boomers will be herding out of their houses in droves to free up the only retirement savings most of them have (and shed the maintenance time/effort and unused space of their empty nests). So we’ll be swapping zero-debt homeowners for full-debt homeowners. Or at least trying to.
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rentah Says:
October 22nd, 2009 at 11:02 am
@Hovering: It seems to me that real estate should be regulated in some way to prevent the sky-highs and barrel scraping lows.
—
I believe that LESS regulation would do the trick.
Banks should NOT be backed by the CMHC.
When bankers sit down face to face with a prospective mortgagee, they should have to genuinely consider the chances of the loan defaulting.
This includes considering the risk of market pullbacks/crashes.
That’d make money pricier (appropriately so). Thus the less regulated market would result in banks demanding higher down-payments, and higher interest rates, from riskier borrowers. And the rest would follow. Moral hazard is a form of market intervention.
…
In related news: BOC head Carney was interviewed today: “Carney also warned consumers to recognize that interest rates are now at historic lows but would return to more normal levels.”
Carney is making it very clear that at some point he will have to raise rates, and, by the way he returns to this warning, I suspect he is laying the groundwork for being able to make big changes without anyone being in a position to claim they weren’t warned. He’s told you it’s coming.
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Mark Downs Says:
October 22nd, 2009 at 11:28 am
Would that be the same Helmut Pastrick that predicted a 10% RISE in March 2008, and then changed his forecast to a 10% DROP 5 months later in August 2008?
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Arwen Says:
October 22nd, 2009 at 11:29 am
@rentah – It was my impression that the derivative repackaging vehicles in the States that lead to subprime were a form of moral hazard that had nothing to do with a government backstop: that essentially you had the classic shell game, and those extending the riskiest mortgages were protected after selling the debt because they weren’t personally on the hook.
So I completely and utterly agree that CMHC is creating a huge issue here, but I think regulation is *also* necessary, to prevent other sorts of moral hazards.
Plus, even minus moral hazard, asset bubbles can and do happen – because people and corporate entities will take greater risks with other people’s money, but they will also take greater risks when gripped in mob hysteria. (Hello, Dow 10,000 – looking at you!)
So I think Moral Hazard isn’t the only thing to look out for, here, in the creation of instability in this market, although I totally agree it’s, in Vancouver, a Huge part of the picture.
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Arwen Says:
October 22nd, 2009 at 11:36 am
(( Not that Greenspan’s cheap money, which *was* part of the asset bubble, and was indeed regulatory, didn’t make everything – including the moral hazard – worse. My point is mainly that these sorts of traps exist everywhere – in regulation and out of it – because people aren’t actually very good at rationality. ))
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Dave Says:
October 22nd, 2009 at 11:38 am
@Mark Downs:
Nobody is right 100% of the time when it comes to markets.
If you look over the long term, Helmut has one of the best track records out there. He has been right far more than he has been wrong.
If that’s your bar for credibility then not a single one of us has it. Most posters here were wrong about the bottom of the correction and the strength of the recovery.
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observer Says:
October 22nd, 2009 at 11:39 am
@/dev/null: I think you have it right on the nail: this is essentially a huge wealth transfer from our next generation of youth to homeowners who are retiring.
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realpaul Says:
October 22nd, 2009 at 11:43 am
#3 I/N , The idea that ’seniors’ ( anyone over 60) are going to suddenly dump their properties and move into care homes and/or 200 sq ft condos is an interesting one. This discussion has been going on for about twenty years. Its made great press, but the facts have not supported the theory….so far.
The inflation rate on private care/assisted living costs have skyrocketed. The average costs are in the multiple thousands of dollars per month. More seniors are staying in their homes for a lot longer than envisaged by the demographers much to the chagrin of the children who’s dream it is to inherit sudden wealth.
Reverse mortgages are big sellers because of the extreme intrest rate regime manipulated by the government. Seniors without independant pensions ( 90% of the pop) are sucking back cash as never before and to the detriment of them all, resulting in poor diet, lifestyle limitation and increased debt. The reverse mortgage ensures that the senior has to stay in their homes until death due to the compounding effect of the reverse mortgage and the zero income regime disallowing them the choice to move into assisted living. So, I wouldn’t expect a sudden wave of senior selling anytime around the 2016 period.
Meanwhile, I heard the disconnected mouthpiece Micheal Levy speaking with the effervescent cheerleader Bill Good this morning as I drove across town. The two of them were ebbulient about ‘how cheap money is’ and that everything was just great! When a caller mentioned that returns on savings were nil, Micheal replied that ‘it works both ways, look how cheap it is to borrow’ as if the script wouldn’t allow him to even mention that NOT buying was an option. I got the impression that they were suggesting that ‘there was no better time to buy a condo’. Moronic.
They bitched about the dollar, saying it was dangerous at these levels, what a crok. 85% of the copuntry benefits from a stronger dollar, consumers certainly do. Only 1/3 of CDN GDP is export driven, what they are talking about is the Canadian economy of the 1950’s.
Federal deficit just topped 100 Billion. Ontario alone announced a new 25 billion deficit. The combined deficits of all levels of government are getting really insane. The current stimulus spending will drag the economy far lower and longer than a two cent rise in the dollar ever will. But people and the media seem to find the dollar story sexy and can’t think about about tommorrow.
Hello higher taxes and fewer services.
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Slim Says:
October 22nd, 2009 at 11:50 am
More dire warnings…
http://rabble.ca/news/2009/10/.....-time-bomb
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Drachen Says:
October 22nd, 2009 at 11:52 am
Again, as always when it comes to predictions, the Bull side “predicts” blah blah blah and that’s the end of it. The Bear side on the other hand opens up all their books and says “here, this is why it will collapse” shows logical, mathematical and economic proofs of their work and goes on to explain how it’s all interconnected.
Bulls respond with some crap like, “He has been right far more than he has been wrong.” Which isn’t an argument at all.
If I predict that the sun will never rise every minute from sunset to 6am I’m right more often than I’m wrong right Dave?
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observer Says:
October 22nd, 2009 at 11:54 am
@Hovering: The government should get out of backstopping the CMHC and allow the markets to return to natural levels. The CMHC also needs to be broken up so it can’t be too large to fail (there should be some anti-trust regulation to allow the mortgage insurance industry to function effectively).
Finally, I think there should be more regulation as to what information must be disclosed to purchasers of assets (financial, RE, or otherwise). Namely, just like we force the food industry to disclose the ingredients and nutritional values of their products to a certain standard, this should be done for assets. More specifically, I think every asset that can be purchased should be required to include not only the price, but p/e ratio and fundamental value based on current interest rates. In effect, it is a way to provide sufficient nudges to the players in the market so they make more sensible decisions and be aware of the financial physics of the situation. Then it is caveat emptor.
It is interesting to note that very few economists predicted the financial crises, even with the most sophisticated theories. The few that turned out to be right simply relied on a few basic financial principles, like p/e and fundamental values. That the masses aren’t been educated about these financial principles is really one big source of the problem (you could say that there is an apathy to change this because after all, those who know can take advantage of bubbles and busts).
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sammy Says:
October 22nd, 2009 at 12:03 pm
@Dave:
#8 D, We all hear some stupid things over the course of the day Dave, but saying that Helmut has ‘one of the best records out there’ is just plain dumb. Every hairdresser and shoe shine boy had a perfect record as long as the market was going up. But then , the market changed.
At least David Learah in the US came back and admitted that he was wrong all along and that he had been paid to cheerlead for the industry. Helmuthead has had nothing to say about the engineered phony money/CMHC campaign. This is not forecasting Dave, it’s just Helmut reading the newspaper and ignoring the story behind the fact. Economics forecasting is not about tea leaf reading government manipulations, that is not a real economy. Helmut Pasternick is an asshole of epic proportions.
You might as well be saying that Supraboy is a genius or that you are on track to discover a cure for cancer.
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rob_ Says:
October 22nd, 2009 at 12:08 pm
slim has already posted a link to Dobbin’s excellent article but I wanted to point out that it can also be found here:
http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2009.....WillBurst/
and here:
http://murraydobbin.ca/
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rentah Says:
October 22nd, 2009 at 12:14 pm
Arwen, observer, Hovering:
Agree with many of your comments.
In particular, Arwen, you are of course correct, bubbles occur without agencies like CMNC being present. But anything that causes risk or money to be priced too cheaply (eg perversely low interest rates) juices bubbles. The market should set interest rates.
Regulation should be limited to forcing transparency (a la observers comments about food ingredients). Then all parties can have access to information, and assess risk accordingly. Some may still make foolish decisions, but, that’s life (and that’s why markets will never be truly completely efficient, which is fine by me).
Regarding regulation, here’s a great PBS Frontline program, ‘The Warning’, about Brooksley Born of the CFTC attempting to introduce derivatives regulation in the 1990’s, and how she was shouted down by the likes of Greenspan, Summers, Rubin and Levitt. Really, really worth the watch, even if you already know most of the story:
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/.....ning/view/
The producers suggest that more regulation would have helped, and it is implied that free markets are bad and shouldn’t be left to their own devices.
They ignore the fact that Greenspan et al were actually perverting the markets via their own less obvious forms of intervention: via moral hazard (they bailed out LTCM, after all), and via perpetually skewing things to Wall Street’s advantage.
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crabman Says:
October 22nd, 2009 at 12:25 pm
Pastrick today:
Pastrick one year ago:
Percent difference in his 2010 predictions = 36%.
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realpaul Says:
October 22nd, 2009 at 12:32 pm
@sammy:
Big split ‘announced’ ( is it real or just sleazy politics) between the VPD and the Vision Vancouver/ Greggy R/mayorboy/douchebag . Jim Chu-Chief says VPD will not act as Visions bitches and won’t be kicking down doors to enforce the Vision Vancouver vision of an uncivil society. Chu says they will not interfere with protest signs in windows and that it will be up to COV staff to kick down doors and tear down banners of protest against the Olympic nasty.
I wonder if Greggy will now try to empower by law officers ( meter maids) to kick down those same doors. Our brave little ticket writers coming through the door with tasers? How many of them will there be and how will they defend themselves?
I guess the VPD lawyers and advisors weren’t sleeping very well. I said it before, “who the fuck could do this kind of democracy throttling after having grown up in this country and enjoying the freedoms we fought to have respected”. Are there a cadre of city councillors who are just brain dead to democracy?
I ‘ve been to dozens of places where people have zero rights and they think of Canada as a dreamland of freedom. How could the fuckwits down at Shitty Hall willingly deny to Canadians the basic rights that so many humans clamour for and never recieve? Whats next Greg, Burkhas for women? Kind of hard to bicycle with a blanket thrown over your face. Anyway good for the VPD for coming to thier senses, even if it was via the frightening speech of your lawyers and union reps.
30 year RCMP veteran psycholgist Mike Webster ( who’s services are no longer required after he testified honestly at the Braidwood inquiry) described the RCMP today on Global as ” an ethics free universe”. We need more guys like Mike.
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DaMann Says:
October 22nd, 2009 at 12:42 pm
@crabman:
As soon as the market changes and starts heading down he will have a new downward prediction once again. Weathermen do better predicting ( and that says a lot), he extrapolates from the previous 3 months, he doesn’t predict.
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/dev/null Says:
October 22nd, 2009 at 12:43 pm
@realpaul: Well, I guess we disagree RP. I only have anecdotal evidence – parents/in-laws are the early boomers and they and all their friends are starting to get the downsizing itch. Father-in-law shoveled a LOT of snow last winter, which is hard on anyone’s back, and they hate asking the kids to check on the house if they want to go somewhere warm for Jan/Feb. Too many stairs, too many unused rooms yada yada. They sold in August and decided to rent for now (imagine how happy I am). Many of their friends are making noises of doing the same.
It’s a huge demographic group. What do you think might happen if even a small fraction of them decide “let’s just put the house on the market and see who bites”?
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apples Says:
October 22nd, 2009 at 1:08 pm
Helmut Pastricks’ prediction about RE a joke. He resembles a blind chimpanzee throwing darts at a board at random – right once, wrong twice.
Or how about “A stopped clock is right twice a day”?
22 X Early Boomers “starting to get the downsizing itch.” « Vancouver Real Estate Anecdote Archive Says:
October 22nd, 2009 at 1:11 pm
[...] Leave a Comment When will the boomers downsize? Perhaps that’s already starting. This from /dev/null at vancouvercondo.info October 22nd, 2009 at 12:43 pm [...]
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kansai_92 Says:
October 22nd, 2009 at 1:49 pm
Perhaps it’s possible to get the banking sector towards a less regulated but more transparent environment?
It used to be that banking was the conduit for the economy, but now it IS the economy.
As for retiring boomers, there is a definite appeal to downsize from say a 2,200sf old fixer upper detached home to a 1,500 sf newer townhouse. Less to clean, less to fix.
Also I still believe most boomers will stay close to home even when downsizing. After all, they still want to be close to friends and relatives.
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NO - LYMPICS Says:
October 22nd, 2009 at 2:02 pm
Saw in the Vancouver Sun the story of the UBC parking tickets. A party who received a parking ticket challenged it in court and WON. The judge stated UBC should refund over $4 million in tickets as the judge rule that UBC had no authority to issue these tickets.
So the Provincial Liberals are drafting legislation to make the tickets retroactively legitimate. I presume this could set a precedent if they don’t try a stunt like this and can you imagine the cost to refund all this ill-gotten booty?
Democracy? What a joke !
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NO - LYMPICS Says:
October 22nd, 2009 at 2:08 pm
#18 realpaul:
Good on VPD….I think police forces everywhere better SERVE and PROTECT the public , and not their political masters. They must sense the public is getting to the point of revolt with the increasing evidence of a police state and ZERO accountability.
I see Gregor also going nuts into trying to make COV THE greenest City,…watch out when him and his Vision Lefties add more cost to housing and likely have some of their green initiatives backfire.
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NO - LYMPICS Says:
October 22nd, 2009 at 2:14 pm
Helmut does not have any neutrality in the matter,…can you imagine what would happen if he told the truth ?
He fronts for a business in bed with the CMHC.
BULL blogs are generally denialists and pumpers.
BEAR blogs tend to see the facts, review the figures and apply a lot of common sense.
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Right Said Fred Says:
October 22nd, 2009 at 2:27 pm
@NO – LYMPICS: That’s the problem. They give their opinions an air of being science, or worse, as if it is truth. Maybe all the bears should win Nobel prizes in Economics?!!!
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I've got a down payment and I'm not afraid to use it... but I'm not Stupid either Says:
October 22nd, 2009 at 2:40 pm
Nobel prize in Economics? Why not! They give out Nobels for thinking about peace don’t they!
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domus Says:
October 22nd, 2009 at 2:55 pm
I loved the article by Murray Dobbin, thanks for the tip.
Here are my favorite excerpts (hopefully dave will read them carefully and stop asking silly questions):
“Sub prime is any loan below prime. If a bank refuses you a loan, and CMHC gives you one, the loan is sub-prime.”
“what few Canadians realize is that the housing market has avoided collapse (prices are down 32 per cent in the U.S.) because the Harper Conservatives directed the CMHC to change the mortgage rules to effectively make the Canadian government the biggest sub-prime lender in the world.”
“In an effort to prop up the real estate market in 2008 (when affordability nosedived) the Harper government directed the CMHC to approve as many high-risk borrowers as possible and to keep credit flowing.”
“This is the ticking time bomb Prime Minister Stephen Harper has tossed at the Canadian taxpayer. Why? So that he can maintain the fiction that he is a good economic manager and win a majority in the next election. The problem is no opposition political party wants to expose the looming disaster and risk being responsible for a dramatic fall in house prices.”
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domus Says:
October 22nd, 2009 at 3:31 pm
Mark Carney’s comments on the RE bubble (dated today!)
“Bank of Canada monitors real estate surge”
http://tinyurl.com/yl2z6qe
Excerpt:”We expect, and we have confidence in, prudence from Canadians. We remind people that borrowing is for the period you are going to borrow, not just for the moment you take out the loan.”
My comment: what are you smoking, pal?
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No Longer Looking Says:
October 22nd, 2009 at 3:34 pm
@domus: “In particular, policy makers will break down the home buying by income groups to see if people might be taking out loans they won’t be able to afford as interest rates rise.”
Hmmm, I wonder what they’ll find.
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Starving Artist Says:
October 22nd, 2009 at 3:49 pm
The Bank of Canada didn’t give a crap when Vancouver and Calgary were bubbling off the charts. Now that Toronto prices are going up its ooh big panic time.
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JR Says:
October 22nd, 2009 at 4:07 pm
By the middle of next year, four things are going to occur or will have already occured, and none of them auger well for real estate:
1. The time frame for the Bank of Canada holding pat on the prime interest rate will have expired
2. HST will be implemented in BC and be applied to new housing
3. The Olympics will have come and gone
4. Pent up demand created from sales falling off a cliff in 2008 will have long since been satisfied
I don’t know how anyone can connect these dots and plausibly predict higher RE prices.
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Right Said Fred Says:
October 22nd, 2009 at 4:18 pm
Here is a real Economist from Carleton University (who also happens to be a respected macro-economics commentator) who says that the Canadian and USA housing markets are completely different:
http://worthwhile.typepad.com/.....theme.html
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NO - LYMPICS Says:
October 22nd, 2009 at 4:24 pm
32 X Starving Artist
Yes….its very Eastern -centric.
Didn’t Harper and Co. create a special Federal bureacracy that isa focussed on Ontario( where the votes are?)
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Not much of a name Says:
October 22nd, 2009 at 4:26 pm
@Right Said Fred:
Who says that our correction has ended? It could be argued that it was just getting underway when the gov’t intervened with low interest rates and reinflated the bubble.
Let’s give it some more time and allow interest rates to rise to see where we go from here. If I was a betting man, I’d put money on declining prices.
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gorky Says:
October 22nd, 2009 at 5:11 pm
#2 regulate RE through speculation tax and down payment requirement 25%. RE is to live in not to gamble with.
other countries do it.
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scamwow Says:
October 22nd, 2009 at 5:18 pm
Did I hear that right? Are the Campbell Libs in the trough for $400,000 worth of Olympic tickets and the COV in for hundreds of thousands more. Is that like another Olympic subsidy to have the taxpayer buy the unsold tickets to make it look like ticket sales are ‘brisk’?
They’re also talking about those same ticket holders as being able to sell those tickets? Will anyone be monitoring the Libs and COV gladhanding of ticket gifts?
Is their no accountability? isn’t it bad enough that schools will be forced to close for the two weeks of Olympic parties so that “parents can take their kids’. Please I’m going to puke!! For the majority of parents its a huge personal expense to find daycare to cover this ‘once in a lifetime opportunity’.
How do the guys in jail awaiting trial feel about the courts closing during this time. Talk about justice delayed and denied. Will the justices and lawyers be getting tickets too?
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SD92129 Says:
October 22nd, 2009 at 5:49 pm
“He predicted that, on an annualized basis, the overall average home price in B.C. will climb to a new high of $463,800 by the end of 2009, erasing recession-era losses, before advancing to $497,800 in 2010 and $534,800 in 2011.”
Helmut is making a very simplistic prediction. All he is pretty much good for is predicting trajectories. I believe he has been with Central since 1997. As he seems to make his predictions based on recent trends, he would only be wrong once in the last 12 years as we have only had 1 inflection point (last spring).
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NO - LYMPICS Says:
October 22nd, 2009 at 6:04 pm
38 scamwow:
Yeah, it never ends, does it?
Couldn’t believe it when I read that latest bit of gravy.
What a double dip…buy tickets to make it look sold out yet these same parties get to go on our dime.
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Best place on meth Says:
October 22nd, 2009 at 6:08 pm
When it comes to Vancouver real estate, there is no such thing as bulls.
Only useless cheerleaders.
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realpaul Says:
October 22nd, 2009 at 6:51 pm
@NO – LYMPICS:
I heard on the radio this evening that the residents of the Cowichan valley will be wearing their Native made Cowichan sweaters along the Olympic Torch Route when it passes through the area.
The reprter says the Security crazies in yellow striped pants have gone into full defence mode and are swooping down on the bad ’sweater wearers’ in the valley banging on doors en masse as a force of intimidation for I guess this anti Olympic ‘wearing of sweaters’.
I can see it now, a little kid wearing a Cowichan sweater his grandmother knit him gives the thumbs down to an IOC limo passing through downtown and gets tasered.
Is it April Fools day or something for the radio guys. Can the cops really have gone this insane.
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Anonymous Says:
October 22nd, 2009 at 7:15 pm
realpaul Says:
October 22nd, 2009 at 12:32 pm
Big split ‘announced’ ( is it real or just sleazy politics) between the VPD and the Vision Vancouver/ Greggy R/mayorboy/douchebag . Jim Chu-Chief says VPD will not act as Visions bitches and won’t be kicking down doors to enforce the Vision Vancouver vision of an uncivil society.
==========================
Nice. Just curious: could any of you boneheads share why you keep voting realpaul down?
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Anonymous Says:
October 22nd, 2009 at 7:39 pm
“Metro Vancouver taxes may rise, but homeowners will get world-class services, officials say”
Right, now that $42,500 wage will buy you water to service your storage locker in maple ridge.
Once RealPaul’s other old senior buddies’ health start failing they will have no choice but to move into low income seniors housing while their worthless houses get sold in a flat market for 100-150 times the rent.
If you want to see what will happen google “bubble las vegas, miami, rich people, rich immigrants, different here)
http://www.city-data.com/forum.....urb-6.html
““This recession proves that Las Vegas’ tourism and growth-based economy isn’t ….. “’It doesn’t feel like the rich people are taking over any more,’ said Shawn Wilson …. Better yet, with them will go many of the millions of people here– not always … easing” of California’s massive influx of illegal immigrants. …”
“From KTAR in Arizona. “Arizona’s housing market is not in recovery mode, according to a new Arizona State University report. Real Estate Professor Jay Butler said the report shows more than two-thirds of the housing market is being driven by home foreclosures and sales of foreclosed homes. The median home price still is very low, at $140,000. That was about $40,000 below what it was in September 2008.””
Just wait houses in Coquitlam will be worth $98k (about what most buyers actually paid) and houses in Burnaby will be $200k-$400k
West Side will be back to $500 to $600k
about what a city with a median income of $42,500 should be.
Come to Vancouver and get shot, get some good crack or heroine and be world class!
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logic Says:
October 22nd, 2009 at 8:16 pm
“Just curious: could any of you boneheads share why you keep voting realpaul down? ”
——
Because – whether we agree with him or not – he comments are usually off-topic.
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_KC Says:
October 22nd, 2009 at 8:25 pm
I was emailed this article by both the realtor and the mortgage broker I was working with a few years ago. huh.
Also, I was walking through Kitsilano today and the unkept buildings and security bars reminded me of Detroit.
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Anonymous Says:
October 22nd, 2009 at 8:55 pm
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logic Says:
Because – whether we agree with him or not – he comments are usually off-topic.
========================
Off-topic? I have news for you: this bubble “topic” had been talked to death about three years ago. I believe the reason realpaul is being voted down is simple penis envy… because most of you had nothing new or original to say on this blog for the last three years.
Is it a bubble? Really????? Guess what.. it was a bubble yesterday, it is a bubble today and it will be a bubble tomorrow, too. And if you still want to discuss it then you have some serious compulsive-obsessive disorder and you should see your doctor.
Sticking to the “topic” makes you about the most boring person on this planet.
Being off-topic is what keeps this blog alive.
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vanguy Says:
October 22nd, 2009 at 9:39 pm
Carney (BOC);
“We remind people that borrowing is for the period you are going to borrow, not just for the moment you take out the loan.”
‘huh, you mean my current monthly payment at 2.25% won’t last the full 35year term?’
‘but the mortage broker at the Dominion Lending Centre told me my payment would be $2,000, I didn’t know it could go up’
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realpaul Says:
October 22nd, 2009 at 11:25 pm
@Anonymous:
#47 Anon, Well thank you, I’m glad to see that at least some people get ‘it’. Off topic, on topic, tomatos tamatas, its all the same. The media and the people who speak through it are at war for control of the conciousness of the public. The Canadian public seems to have capitualted for the most part and theres only a few free thinkers left in rag tag pockets of society. The mainstream is drunk on the celebratory end time kool aid.
The droning spin of chosen ‘on topic’ media spun stories is just another way of misdirecting the sheeple from the hard truth when its the truth that should be focused on but would be too difficult to manage for reasons known only to the spin meisters. Well hidden until exposed through the Freedom of Information act that is.
Basically one group is played against another, one idea against another, one emotion against another depending on how the issues poll, while people should be focusing on the real enemy, which is all the waste , gibberish and incompetance. The fox is in the henhouse and the farmers sipping tea.
These slug wits ‘voting me down’ are expressing simple disonance in that truth makes some very uncomfortable because it provokes thinking contrary to their own recently developed bias and longer held deluded perceptions. The secret is that I am engaging them and by voting me down they affirm the very thing they seek to destroy. Socrates was a real bastard wasn’t he.
The truth is as I’ve stated it, whether its diamonds or doorknobs, the basis of fact remains the same. Tell the people of Chechnya that the politics of repression have nothing to do with real estate values. The day before the repression started people were probably out looking at condos. Think it can’t happen here? Have you ever thought about before now?
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kansai_92 Says:
October 22nd, 2009 at 11:26 pm
@Mark Downs:
Yes, that would be the one and only Helmut Pastrick.
He goes home at night, takes the last 6 months worth of data, plots it on a graph.
Then he extends the line to the next 6 months.
Voila, the forecast for the next two quarters.
I could train a monkey to do this twice a year.
How Credit 1 can employ such a douchebag is beyond belief
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BBY Says:
October 22nd, 2009 at 11:57 pm
“He goes home at night, takes the last 6 months worth of data, plots it on a graph.
Then he extends the line to the next 6 months.
Voila, the forecast for the next two quarters.”
It would actually be a very interesting exercise to actually verify that this, or something close to it, happens. Does/has Helmut ever describe his sources and methods? In all the math/engineering exams that I wrote, I had to show my work. Does Helmut show his?
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SD92129 Says:
October 23rd, 2009 at 11:33 am
kansai, bby:
its not 6 months, its 12 months! he projects 12 months out.
“He predicted that, on an annualized basis, …)
in other words, “if the next 12 months behave like the last 12 months…”
I would be so much funnier if no one got hurt by this, but I suspect some unsuspecting readers take it at face value. Helmut is very careful to avoid say something wrong, but his blatant disregard for the statements likelihood of being misconstrued is shameful.
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gorky Says:
October 23rd, 2009 at 11:44 am
#30, agree re “Bank of Canada monitors real estate surge” http://tinyurl.com/yl2z6qe
”we have confidence in prudence from Canadians”
What???? Prudence in those same Canadians that are asked by CHMC to kindly take out a sub-prime loan???
It’s like locking up the fox with a bunch of chicken and saying “we have confidence that the fox will behave and won’t massacre the chicken”