Both of these articles are worthy of their own discussion, and I’ll probably add the links to the Friday Free-for-all, but I thought some of you might like to talk specifically about them. First off Dave points out this very bullish prediction from Helmut Pastrick in the Vancouver Sun:
He predicted that, on an annualized basis, the overall average home price in B.C. will climb to a new high of $463,800 by the end of 2009, erasing recession-era losses, before advancing to $497,800 in 2010 and $534,800 in 2011.
And as a counterpoint Jonathon Tonge over at the America Canada blog lays out the mathematical reason why a housing market crash is baked into the boom:
Using this model we can clearly see that by 2016 Canadians will owe an average of 263% of their gross incomes to residential mortgage debt.It’s impossible figure I know. But that is the point. In fact it is unlikely that we will go above 125%, something that will occur by mid 2010.
To the bulls and bears, please put aside your emotions. A real estate correction is written into the cards. It’s a mathematical must.