Canada’s looming pension problem
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October 28th, 2009 at 3:27 pm
Hey Davey,
Why are you wasting your time arguing with these bearish fools? Get out there and start making boatloads of money on real estate. Get your hands on every last penny out there and leverage yourself to the max. I hear there is an opening at Concert. Since you are a genius, you should get the job, no problem.
@oneangryslav2:
Davey picked 1985 for his reference point in comparison to today. The BOC indicates that average residential mortgage rates in 1985 were about 12%. from ‘85 to ‘90 inflation was between 4% and 5% (4% in ‘85). He has simply substituted high real interest rates in 1985 for high purchase prices (and near zero real interest rates) today. The comparison is bunk.
October 28th, 2009 at 2:47 pm
@Dave: Thanks for the response. Interesting. 25% down payment? Do you know what percentage of buyers in the last few years has been able to put down a 25% down payment? How would your assessment of affordability change if the down payment were decreased to what has now become standard, at least amongst FTBs–5%? Also, how quickly would affordability be undermined by a 2 or 3 percentage-point increase in mortgage rates?
Finally, despite the massive recent (5-7 year) increase in real estate prices (while income has barely kept up with inflaction during the same period), the affordability index is currently only 5% points higher than the long-term average. What is wrong with this picture? Part of the answer is that if you were to exclude the last 5 years or so, the average since 1985 would be less than 31%, but still does it not seem rather strange that skyrocketing prices and essentially stable incomes have not had a great effect on affordability?
October 28th, 2009 at 2:45 pm
Drachen, your humour fails you, both in delivery and reception.
Let’s compare predictions…
You… 50%+ drop… calling that for years… RESULT… NADA… Big fat zero
Me…
1. Listings Peak – I was off by only a few hundred listings. The reality is that I called the peak of listings. That opinion was quite divergent from most, including yourself, who claimed that listings would continue to grow.
2. Correction Magnitude – I called the SFH Vancouver bottom at $630k. It ended up hitting bottom at around $650k.
3. Timing of Bottom – In December I said the bottom would be reached WITHIN 6 months. The market turned around 4 months from that prediction.
Sorry, but those are the facts.
October 28th, 2009 at 2:40 pm
Dave Says:
October 28th, 2009 at 2:15 pm
Proven wrong? Quite the opposite… I have done quite well with my predictions,
==================
Monday: I predict that I will never die.
Wednesday: Ooo, look. I haven’t died yet. I’m a frickin prediction genius! All hail me!
October 28th, 2009 at 2:36 pm
Dave Dave Dave, when things aren’t going your way you just make a race for the gutter. Try to be civil.
As for your predictions, you are still 0 and 4 with one still hanging in the balance (well, truth be told you lost that one too but before your prediction was proven false you hedged). Yes… You’re about as accurate as Nostradamus (which is to say, not at all).
October 28th, 2009 at 2:15 pm
@gorky:
Proven wrong? Quite the opposite… I have done quite well with my predictions, thank you. Feel free to read my posts from last Fall. So well that I might have to change my handle to Nostradaveus.
I am quoting REAL published data (as of Sep 2009). Who’s the one in denial?
October 28th, 2009 at 2:02 pm
Dave you must be quite full of yourself…having been proven wrong so many times and the coming down with this one, that’s just …well… wow.
“For example, the average apartment in Vancouver currently has an affordability rating of 36% (based on average household income, 25% down, 5 year rate and 25year amortization). This compares to an average of 31% since 1985.”
In denial much? Get real man.
October 28th, 2009 at 1:03 pm
Do you wear high heels when you dance, just like in your dream clip? I’m not sure what Freud would say about this never mind your wife.
October 28th, 2009 at 12:57 pm
What’s next, a clip from Ally McBeal or Sex and the City?
October 28th, 2009 at 11:47 am
@Dave:
Yet another fact, logic and mathematical filled post from Dave, wizard of wall street, who has so much money because of his incredible intellect and knowledge of the market that he can spend all day, every day here.
Remember that video in a couple years from now, ’cause that’s going to be me, rubbing it in your face.
October 28th, 2009 at 11:24 am
@oneangryslav2:
By affordability, I mean the total percent of income required to service real estate debt (mortgage, taxes, upkeep).
For example, the average apartment in Vancouver currently has an affordability rating of 36% (based on average household income, 25% down, 5 year rate and 25year amortization). This compares to an average of 31% since 1985.
October 28th, 2009 at 11:14 am
@wreckanomics:
I agree with you, but whoever said parents were obligated to pay for their kids college or university educations? Mine never did, so I went to the ’school of hard knocks’, and had to learn life the hard way, and I’m still paying for it today at 45. Many people are in the same situation. Want to go to college or university? That’s what student loans are for.
October 28th, 2009 at 10:38 am
@Dave: Dave, I noticed that you failed to respond to a question of mine in a previous thread. To repeat, you argued that real estate is affordable in Vancouver. Please define what you mean by “affordability” with respect to real estate.
TIA
October 28th, 2009 at 9:39 am
@Drachen:
Keep dreaming because that’s all you got. It ain’t going to happen.
October 28th, 2009 at 9:20 am
84 lien on me
If Korean wants immigrants then why are they all coming to Vancouver. Have you seen North Rd at Burnaby/Coquitlam border and Kingsway Burnaby.
October 28th, 2009 at 8:51 am
@scullboy:
Too bad, we’ll miss you and your sex baiting of Satv in all his incarnations.
Are you really sure you don’t want to stick around for this moment?
Personally I’m eager to rub it in Dave’s face and I hope he sticks around long enough for that moment
October 28th, 2009 at 1:00 am
i taught english in korea, one of the most homogenistic countries in the world,
their birthrate is one of the lowest in the G20,
today their high risk low paying industrial jobs are filled by guest workers from places like sri lanka, india, pakistan and the philipines.
their policy groups are now openly saying they will need to actively accept immigrants if they dont want to become a nation of aging population like japan,
its funny the anti immigrants all come out of the closet when the economy goes through a recession.
i guess they are all busy when times are good.
October 28th, 2009 at 12:58 am
@scullboy: There will come a point when Vancouver loses its real estate obsession. Sadly, it will only happen after a large part of the population is eviscerated by the market.
God help us, we can’t do it any other way.
Halifax makes Vancouver look like the dump that it is.
Good luck.
October 27th, 2009 at 11:38 pm
Frankly after years of observation, I think you’ve all gone insane.
Back in the day the VHB blog gave us all sorts of useful facts and data. Even this blog was useful until Pope abandoned it to the loonies. These days you all sound like various incarnations of Browntown and SatV, just with slightly better grammar.
After 3.5 years of living here I’m finally so tired of the whole real estate obsession that I just can’t stand living here any more. It looks like I might actually have a *gasp* job relevant to my skills in Halifax and that might actually pay a *gasp* wage that will allow me to live a decent life back on the good ol’ east coast.
Sure I’ll miss all the pretentious and crypto-racist Supraboy like assholes on this coast. Sure I’ll be swapping 6 months of moderate cold and a fair amount of snow for rain but at least I’ll be able to afford a nice little place of my own, and the locals will have something more interesting to discuss then FUCKING REAL ESTATE.
I mean Jesus Christ, does *anyone* talk about *anything* else in this town?
See ya later everyone. Best of luck.
October 27th, 2009 at 10:16 pm
@Anonymous: Read the last paragraph of the post. Lower pension income is relevant to whether or not a boomer will sell his or her primary investment, typically an SFH, and move into, say, a condo.
October 27th, 2009 at 9:03 pm
Canada’s looming pension problem
=========
Funny nobody complains that this is “off-topic”.
October 27th, 2009 at 8:50 pm
#77 T, I guess you didn’t read the offering by Starving Artist re the sub livable condo offering at the Electra showing Ul that in fact sub 350 sq ft units exist. Where did I get schooled again? Oh sorry, you can’t read. I don’t beat up retarded kids or seniors , so you get a pass.
Are you trying to get a dig in to hurt my feeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeelings. Oh wahhhhhhhhhhhh . did it take an entire session of monkey whacking to dream that up?
I can see it now
wak wak wak Grrrrr I hate realpaul, he tells me things that make me so mad
wak wak wak I ‘ll say bad things
wak wak wak mommy i’m ccccccccccoming mommy.
Look bad spelling and grammer , tell the police that theres a citizen who hasn’t swallowed any kool aid running around spreading uncomfortable information
bwahahahahaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!
keep em coming
As always , bring on the clowns.
October 27th, 2009 at 7:30 pm
^^ grammar is good
October 27th, 2009 at 6:21 pm
Hate to say it, but you got schooled Ultraman by RP…that has got to hurt….
October 27th, 2009 at 5:58 pm
#71 U,
I guess when the ol’ knee jerks up high enough to hit you in the face you miss postings like this one from Starving Artist about the condo at the Electra at 329 sq ft.
http://www.6717000.com/mls/V79.....on-st.html
It appears I was being generous when I offered one at 350 Sq ft.
Just because I’m hated exposing the general state of denial in van Shitstain, doesn’t mean I’m wrong. I’ve whipped you with the truth and it hurts I know. Tough titty.It doesn’t mean that the blunt stick ain’t gonna hurt when you wake up to the fact that the media spin has all been a delusion.
bwahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha , thanks for the laughs though.
Yes, theres an abundance of losers living in shoeboxes that they thought would make them feel like a somebody but have just become traps. Some just can’t look at the reality of their own incompetance…. because it hurtssssssssssssssssss so bad.
Wankers lament,
“Really mommy, I’m a big boy now, snurfle, I own a condo looooook at me , please look at meeeeeeeeeeeeeee !!!!! Can I come vacation with you Mommy?”
October 27th, 2009 at 5:40 pm
Nice summary Chip. Its a great place to move your family to and have your extended family enjoy the benefits of social assistance, all without ever having contributed a dime.
We really are the land of smiling trusting fools….
October 27th, 2009 at 5:29 pm
More than half of immigrants who have arrived in the last decade live below the poverty line. It takes an average of 14 years for them to reach median income. The average age of an immigrant is over 40. You do the math.
I live in Singapore which is encouraging a huge number of immigrants. But with mostly private health care, very limited social assistance and very low taxes (first year of business tax free) there is a strong inducement for highly skilled workers and hard working entrepreneurs to come here.
In Canada, the inducement is cheap healthcare and social assistance.
October 27th, 2009 at 5:19 pm
47 X Vic Says:
October 27th, 2009 at 2:56 am
“I highly doubt we 30+ year olds will live longer by natural causes. We work crazy hours to pay for our mega mortgage. We don’t take time off or vacations…to pay for our mortgage”
Ugh! Sounds just like Japan.
Or, maybe it’s “Offworld” like in “Bladerunner”.
October 27th, 2009 at 5:03 pm
^^ LOL. Indeed.
October 27th, 2009 at 5:02 pm
“I think a lot of ‘urbanites’ get hit with this reality after their two years of freedom in their ‘downstown lifestyle choice’ and get flushed out to Aldergrove and Mission as soon as she gets pregnant.”
And spend 2+ hours a day commuting plus the gaz expense and the need for a second car. There’s a lifestyle for you. BTW nobody is raising anything in 350 sq ft condos. There’s no such thing as a 350 sq ft condo.
October 27th, 2009 at 4:12 pm
Now our resident troll is posting under a second name, and have a conversation with himself!
October 27th, 2009 at 4:07 pm
#28
“And for all those condo owners hoping for a swap with the boomers for their homes, you might be waiting a very very long time (perhaps another decade or so). If that is the case, good luck raising your family in your 600k two bedroom condo ‘
Nope, can’t imagine raising any children in a 350 sq ft condo with mortgage and strata fees so high that you can’t feed them properly or afford any extra curicular activities, which is whats going on anyway.
I think a lot of ‘urbanites’ get hit with this reality after their two years of freedom in their ‘downstown lifestyle choice’ and get flushed out to Aldergrove and Mission as soon as she gets pregnant.
This was well documented by Dr. Foote ( Boom Bust Echo fame) who detailed this very phenomena not long ago and called downtown Wank-ouver condos ‘obselete’ because of the ‘unlivabilty’ of the product.
October 27th, 2009 at 4:03 pm
Another a note to myself so I can check later that http://www.realtor.ca shows 10,643 listings for Vancouver focus area at zoom level 10.
October 27th, 2009 at 3:58 pm
actually wikipedia says canadian gdp per capita is higher than italy’s
October 27th, 2009 at 3:50 pm
Canada is falling like a stone in personal freedoms and prospertiy, health and safety of expectation says Global study out today. Canada has fallen to #31, thats a long way down from #1 isn’t it? How do we rank #31 if we are supposed to a G7 country? How did we fall past even the peripheral G20 nations. Aren’t the papers always bragging about how ‘free’ we are in this country? Apparently , you’re being taken for a ride down the highway of tears.
http://blog.taragana.com/pr/th.....ance-8024/
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/200.....rity_index
BTW #63 . I confirmed for myself that the innoculation campaign supposedly ‘rolling out’ the H1N1 ( Mexican flu) vaccine has been nothing more than a sham photo op. Spoke to a doctor myself and was told that vaccine is not available, that it is ‘on order’. The pictures we saw on the TV and in the papers were of a miniscule number of vaccinations done for the cameras people. People are milling around clinics like sheep to the slaughter.
The new response by the government is to have you go home and ‘assess yourself’ using the cardboard flyer directing you to their WEBSITE’ ( Bwahahahahahahahahaha) that they are handing out at the clinics to placate the dumbstruck citizens who are slowing coming to realise that the whole thing is nothing more than a scam that has is trying to create the ‘impression’ that action is being taken while in fact nothing is being done.
What a fiasco. Get your affairs in order if you are in the high risk group. Theres no help for you if you come down with this disease. Oh ya , wonder why they don’t want you coming to the hospital? Because they don’t have ANY ventilators available to keep you breathing once you get there.
October 27th, 2009 at 2:30 pm
@lien on me: Nobody is arguing against all immigration. It needs to be strategic to our economic needs, but not seen as the engine of growth.
October 27th, 2009 at 2:01 pm
59
“take off the narrow minded glasses and decide..and see the bigger global picture as canada in the global competitive community”
Sorry, but discussing options other than immigration, is not narrow minded. Falling back on a hyped up system as a panacea for maintaining one’s way of life is narrow minded.
As previously reiterated, and acknowledged by other posters, standards of living can can improve without opening the door up to hundreds of thousands of immigrants each year. Time to take your PC hat off and start thinking critically….because this discussion will take place on a national level in the coming years as people’s avoidance of discussing it for fear of the having the R card thrown at them diminishes…
October 27th, 2009 at 1:53 pm
#60 Possibly the reason for Italy having such a high per capita GDP is that they can purchase and produce state of the art machinery with the valuable Euro and that makes for highly skilled , highly trained workers and highly productive work places making much more money than rag factory, rock diggers and fast food restaurant workers and wood mill workers do here in Canada.The low Canadian dollar keeps the country from industrializing and all the unions want to do is preserve the few dinosaur jobs that are left under the massive and expensive subsidy programs that exist for now. Possibly the Italians and the Germans and the rest of the industrialized world is looking towards the future.
The BOC governor Carney has been on the warpath recently against the rising dollar here. Is it because he’s getting heat from the big retailers who see their Christmas season going down the toilet as sales go south for better deals and more selection? Maybe?
But why are you so concerned about paying higher prices? Its better here in isn’t ? The retailers are all American companies anyway aren’t they? Aren’t they getting our dough no matter what side of the border we shop on?
In fact they are concerned, the profit margin for Wall Mart, Cost Co, Retail Chains etc are 30 to 40% higher in Canada for the same items that one can buy in the United States, so why shouldn’t the Canadians keep being overcharged if the big lobby can convince the government to increase their margins by squeezing out the competition? Intersting questions all, but understood by very few. Your government is fucking you, wake up.
October 27th, 2009 at 1:52 pm
57
“take off the narrow minded glasses and decide..and see the bigger global picture as canada in the global competitive community”
Sorry, but discussing options other than immigration, is not narrow minded. Falling back on a hyped up system as a panacea for maintaining one’s way of life is narrow minded.
As previously reiterated, and acknowledged by other posters, standards of living can can improve without opening the door up to hundreds of thousands of immigrants each year. Time to tack your PC hat off and start thinking critically….because this discussion will take place on a national level in the coming years as people’s avoidance of discussing it for fear of the having the R card thrown at them diminishes it…
October 27th, 2009 at 1:37 pm
#57, What I wrote was that the Canadian Health Officials had FAILED to control the spread of the disease by NEGLECTING to do any any thermal scans , border controls or isolation of the already sick WHILE the diseaese was prominent in MEXICO and while they still had the opportunity to slow the spread of the disease through the community here.
Of course its too late to do any thermal scans now. This procedure was in effect at all Asian airports and health workers came right onto the aircraft and did thermal scans of arriving passengers. Affected travellers and locals who had visited the affected area ( MEXICO) were quarantined in their individual hotels ( entire hotels were locked down) and in special isolation facilities staged away from the hospitals. The H1N1 death count has been negligable in China, HK, Korea and Japan due to the fast action of those governments. Not so here?
Why do you ask? Is because of tourist industry lobbies? Political disputes? ( I watched CTV news today and the MP who expressed a question that Canadians were worried about the ‘unsure stance’ that the government had taken was booed and laughed at by the Conservative bench), why indeed. It furthers my assertion of gross incompetance.
Not being a sheeple type I went to see what was happening in the medical clinics around the city. I went into two. There are long lines of people ( who are making appointments now as there is NO VACCINE AVAILABLE TO WALK INS ) who are genuinely concerned and I would call the number of people lined up here and across the country as a bona fide PANIC. Of course this is all being downplayed by the bi-lingual health care professionals being dolled up in front of the cameras to ‘assure’ Canadians. What rubbish. What incompetance.
reports of healthy people dying are getting in the way of the governments desire to control the message. We have to keep those hotel rooms full don’t we. Thers no reason not to come to Canada is there? By the way did you know we have the Olympics coming? Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh a few deaths are not going to ruin a good party are they?
October 27th, 2009 at 1:21 pm
lien on me very clever funny name. I don’t get your point though. Are you saying that any country without promoting immigration will be uncompetitive but then you use Italy as an example? Italy’s economy is far bigger than ours and they don’t rely on immigration. That was sort of a bad point. Northern Italy has one of the highest per capita GDP’s in the world.
October 27th, 2009 at 1:12 pm
regarding immigration,
all i know is that without immigration, relying on fraser institute theories with its anti immi stuff,,,.. canada will be kicked out of G20 sooner or later.
why is italy part of G7?
immigration, population drive societies
who is going to clean our hotels? hospitals? take care of our elderly today? and who is doing the studying now, going to cure us when we retire and become ill 20yrs from now?
go to any campus in canada today,,take out all the colored people, do a back to the future rewind.. will we be better off or worse off as a society
take off the narrow minded glasses and decide..and see the bigger global picture as canada in the global competitive community
i see vancouver as a edmonton without immigration..
i dont want to live in edmonton.. sushi sucks there
October 27th, 2009 at 1:00 pm
54 “(late 20’s right now) the irrational Protestant Ethic is starting to lose its grip, here’s hoping…”
Hate to break the news to you, but your generation has no work ethic to begin with. There is no solid protestant work ethic to lose.
Your generation demands work/live balance, flexible work hours, high starting salaries and continuous increases to match your instant gratification conspicuous consumption lifestyle (regardless of whether they are warranted from a value perspective), access to all senior projects and job duties. There is no concept of “putting your time in” and when all of the above are not achieved, you move on to the next job. Nothing wrong with that, but there is no point in expending training resources on you when the company will not benefit…
I chalk it up to your baby boomer parents coddling you and installing a sense that each one of you is “special,” whether that is true or not. This approach to child rearing was a result of them not being shown the level of affection from their parents. Throw in a participatory uncompetitive K-12 education system, when everyone gets a “participation” badge instead of 1st 2nd or 3rd, and have a generation that will get bogged down it its own problems soon enough.
As an HR manager, if I actually find someone under 30 with a work ethic and proven experience, I promote the hell out of them before they can get bogged down by the instant gratification culture of their peers.
I also check out the facebook accounts of younger applicants as to whether they come to table with the maturity and experience required. Luckily, the “look at me” and “show my life in excruciating detail generation loves to post their lives up without any consideration as to who may actually be viewing it, and what its consequence might be. This tactic is essentially a weeding one…
October 27th, 2009 at 12:51 pm
to truthphobic 52
———-
There’s no point in thermal scans or border measures as the disease is already here in the community. That is a basic aspect of late-stage pandemic planning.
October 27th, 2009 at 12:48 pm
55 – excellent post. Huge influxes of immigration only benefit the wealthy and powerful (especially large landowners). The rest of us have to live with less.
October 27th, 2009 at 12:37 pm
Regarding immigration, don’t buy the hype. There are only two things that can drive growth in any society: productivity increases and/or population growth. The first results in real benefits to society, while the second simply increases our consumption of finite resources which doesn’t provide any net benefit over the long-term.
Increased immigration simply lowers the standard of living for society as a whole by increasing the supply of workers thereby driving down what people will accept in terms of not just wages but also density, pollution, etc. Any growth that results would be of the inferior, population growth-type, instead of the superior, productivity-type.
Many Euro countries have figured this out, keeping their living standards high by limiting immigration, while also continuing to have GDP growth mainly through productivity increases.
October 27th, 2009 at 12:22 pm
“I am not in the tech industry like yourself, but am in an equally aggressive industry in which sleep and vacation are considered a weakness.”
“Just about the single most disgusting aspect of American work culture – I really hope people fight against it to the extent they can. ”
Seconded. We’ve got our priorities so screwed up here in North America it boggles my mind, although I’ve noticed in my generation (late 20’s right now) the irrational Protestant Ethic is starting to lose its grip, here’s hoping…
October 27th, 2009 at 11:02 am
#52 T, it depends on where you read the story. The Vanc SCUM spins the story to the ’sunny side’ while the G&M reports the actual rise in unemployment in BC without the blatant cheerleading.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....le1339751/
-totally agree on the flu story BTW
October 27th, 2009 at 10:53 am
Ok. So it says ‘initial claims are down 2.4% in August but…reading further it says actual unemployment is up 8.4% in the same time frame. Are we getting bamboozled here?
http://www.vancouversun.com/Mo.....story.html
Also I can’t believe the cascading incompetance being exercised by the ‘Health Professional’ sector of the government. Aren’t we paying these people more ’so as to compete with the best minds from private industry’? First the H1N1 scare is cancelled because of ‘not wanting to cause a panic’ so they don’t close the borders for people coming from Mexico when the outbreak started. SARS II anyone ?
No thermal scans or isolation for suspected cases coming in even though mass cases of people sick coming back from Mexico are reported and Asian countries have health inspectors doing thermal scans ON THE AIRCRAFT!! Our guys just say ’stay at home and phone your doctor if your feeling sick’. So the pandemic really takes hold and flashes through the population.
Next, they downplay the number of cases and hide the death statistics behind farcical announcements like ‘oh, they must have died from being fat or something else’ ( they got exposed as baldfaced liars for that one too).
Then, they cancel the production of the new vaccine so as not to have to have the extra expense of taking the regular flu shot vaccine off the shelf ( tainted blood scandal anyone?), so that when the pandemic really hits all they have is a surplus of bodybags which start showing up mysteriously in some communities. people begin to die in large numbers and the body count can’t be hidden anymore in this same time line. But still no apparent concern.
Embarrassment and anger at children dying spurs some action and a small amount of vaccine begins to flow although unsurely tested and coupled with an even greater amount of mercury contaminent so that children have to recieve multiple doses over a period of weeks. 1 in 1000 cases have produced severe side effects and thats only the numbers we get from the professionals, but who cares right?
Doctors drive themselves to the distribution centres to pick up vaccine for the most at risk patients in their practices are are told that as few as 40 doses are available per clinic. Stampededs occur at the few public clinics which open unannounced in some areas.
As I said , cascading incompetance from start to finish. And the only announcement from the Health professionals has been ” More deaths can be expected”. Lovely.
Theres going to be a few condo listings open up for the real estate vultures out there before we see the back of this.
October 27th, 2009 at 9:56 am
“I am not in the tech industry like yourself, but am in an equally aggressive industry in which sleep and vacation are considered a weakness.”
Just about the single most disgusting aspect of American work culture – I really hope people fight against it to the extent they can.