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Canada is desperate to keep the dollar down below the US and is pinning its hopes on a US recovery ( ain't happening) so that it doesn't have to raise rates. Aussie and Norway have broken with the pack of the super indebted and have begun to reign in the inflation in real estate and consumer discretionaries ( food etc) but Canada is letting it all slide. Of course this is killing the savers, but who gives a crap about a bunch of old people.

I expect to be paying much more for my bunch of bananas before this is over. The 2% keynsian inspired target that Carney has been blabbing about should double the cost of goods and servives over fifty years . My grocery bill has doubled in the past two. Same for real estate and many issues. Farcical to assume we are going to end this well.

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Pretending to be the stupidest contrian alive is funny once but this has gone on too long.

At least when you pretend to be thumbsup or john it was funny

Now go to your room or go upstairs and have mum cook you dinner.

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Or in other words:

http://www.moonbattery.com/archives/flesh_wound.j…

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Nevertheless. Is Lake O'Hara at the bottom of the Rocky Mountains? What is a dip and what is an actual "bottom", I don't think bottom can be called except in retrospect and it needs a few years to make sure it's truly settled (in slow moving Real Estate anyhow). Saying "ha ha, see I was right!" in that prediction NOW is grossly premature (I'd wonder about other parts of your life in which you're premature but I'm trying to keep it civil, at least on my end ).

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Sorry, but that isn't the case. I made the following post three days after I start contributing to this blog:

June 16th, 2008 at 5:21 pm

Freako, put me down for 12 to 18 months of gains. In other words, if there is a correction, then I predict values will drop from 10 to 15% (nominally). So, if it breaks 15%, I will have been wrong.

I will further add that a correction of greater than 10% will only occur due to an external factor (e.g. higher interest rates > 1.5%, higher unemployment ~ + 2%, or a recession)

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What are you talking about here? You were wrong period. End of discussion, that you use it as evidence of how good your predictions are just goes to show how deluded you are.

"10% off-peak was the non-recession scenario. In that same post, I said 15% with a recession. Guess what… correct again…"

That's the hedge I was referring to, originally you just said 10% but then later you revisited your prediction once the recession became inevitable.

"A bottom is a bottom… we hit one. With your dress, lipstick and dancing fantasies, I would expect you to know that."

Wow, you must have an interesting time at the amusement park. So Lake O'Hara is at the bottom of the Rocky Mountains by your definition? Get serious.

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That would be like me saying you were wrong if prices were to correct 49.9%, even though it would be far closer to your original predictions than mine. Talk about splitting hairs.

10% off-peak was the non-recession scenario. In that same post, I said 15% with a recession. Guess what… correct again…

A bottom is a bottom… we hit one. With your dress, lipstick and dancing fantasies, I would expect you to know that.

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Good question. I think we need to differentiate between 'been able to' and 'did'. With money being so cheap, some people likely keep their down payments low and money invested elsewhere. For the most part, first time buyers are not putting down more than say 10%. Trade up buyers probably exceed 25% for the most part. We should also keep in mind that a huge percentage of homes are owned outright.

Affordability will drop with higher interest rates (by definition). At the same time, higher interest rates imply a stronger economy which implies stronger wage growth. Even with this recession, average income is still climbing and at rates above inflation. I think the two are likely to be a wash going forward.

Have a look at the data. I think it will answer some of your questions.

http://www.rbc.com/economics/market/pdf/house.pdf

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