Friday Free-for-all!
Hey! The weekend is nigh! Lets do our regular end of the week economic news roundup and discussion, here are a few stories to kick off the conversation:
-Homeowners ignore Olympic rental license requirement
-Olympic Village $132 million over budget
-Mixed residential and industrial zoning not ideal
-Vancouver condos not such a bad idea
-The great BC real estate bust
-BOC focus on consumers worries analysts
-Canada needs to cool bragging?
-US: Dead government walking (pdf)
So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!
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October 29th, 2009 at 9:40 pm
i am the first bear here
October 29th, 2009 at 10:49 pm
For a while there, I was starting to think that the Globe had actually bucked the trend of shoddy RE journalism and written a pretty good article. And then, near the end, this:
“And of course, a project initiated now would come on stream just as the market picks up again—with luck, in two or three years’ time.”
Hmmmm…. just like the market picked up 2 or 3 years after the bust in the US, right?
October 29th, 2009 at 11:22 pm
Olympic delusions…
“MacKenzie said homeowners from as far away as Hope, Chilliwack, Vancouver Island, the Okanagan and Lynden, Wash. have contacted the agency wanting to list. The agency takes a 25-per-cent commission and a $250 listing fee for a full-service rental, which includes vetting the guests, tax collection, housekeeping and handing over the keys. It is keeping homeowners from cities such as Burnaby and New Westminster on a reserve list and will list them if the demand is there”
That’s right, overseas fans will pay big dollars to stay in New West and Chilliwack during the games. Once they discover these hidden gems, prices are sure to skyrocket. Hurry, contact your realtor today!
October 30th, 2009 at 12:31 am
The rental supply that’s going to be available beginning in March is going to be phenomenal.
October 30th, 2009 at 4:46 am
It’s hilarious how many amateur landlords are halfassed planning on cashing in on olympic rentals, but not paying the small license fee to do it legit. Ifind itinteresting that the city says it would only go to the $2000 fine as a last resort, and would first send a warning letter and get an injunction to stop the rental.
Stopping the rental would cost the owner WAY more than $2000. They’d lose the income plus may be legally obliged to cover their tenant alternate lodgings, depending on their contract.
October 30th, 2009 at 7:24 am
“Hmmmm…. just like the market picked up 2 or 3 years after the bust in the US, right?”
Actually yes, the low end of the US market has hit a temporary bottom due to the $8000 tax credit.
Sad, isn’t it?
October 30th, 2009 at 7:47 am
My sis-in-law is moving here from London in early 2010 and I have advised her to wait until after the Olympics to find a rental. I’m sure the rental market will be blown wide open after the games. Even now, it’s cracking. I expect the R/E market will look quite different as well.
October 30th, 2009 at 9:17 am
Now that the olympic flame is in Canada the real estate market is sure to reach a burning hot olympic flame induced state. If I were a condo speculator in Vancouver I would have bought 4 condos last week and sell them this week for a huge profit. Everyone wants to see the flame.
October 30th, 2009 at 9:31 am
Bank of Japan begins to pull back
Move runs counter to government pressure
to support borrowing until economy strengthens
A split Bank of Japan began withdrawing from credit markets on Friday and said it would scrap all key funding support programs by March, resisting government pressure to support corporate borrowing until the economy strengthens.
The bank extended a low-interest loans scheme by three months, but set an expiry date for March and said it would end less-used funding measures – buying of corporate bonds and commercial paper – in December, as expected.
http://tinyurl.com/ycjbsr2
….more and more QE is toast…..
when is Canada going to step up to the plate?
October 30th, 2009 at 9:33 am
Will climate change affect the economy?
A landmark report on the economic impact of meeting climate-change targets has run into a storm of opposition, with Western provinces calling it divisive and the federal government saying it would spell economic disaster.
“We would be extremely opposed to any kind of a carbon tax or some other kind of tax that would result in a significant wealth transfer from our province to any other province or area of the country,” said Saskatchewan Energy Minister Bill Boyd.
Federal Environment Minister Jim Prentice said there is no way Western Canadians could absorb the deep economic hit projected by the report’s environmentalist authors – the David Suzuki Foundation and the Pembina Institute.
BC, Alberta and Sask…… have not provinces?
http://tinyurl.com/yzksnjn
….stay tuned
October 30th, 2009 at 9:40 am
Interesting thought about the rental market post Olympics. I can’t wait to have the Olympics over and done with already. Just to get that dynamic outta the RE market.
2010 should be an interesting year. With many current stimulus programs coming to their ends all over the world, it should be interesting to see what will happen with the stock markets, economies and RE.
I watched a documentary on the 1929 stock crash the other night. It was a good reminder that sometimes these things play out over many years. I have to say that there are alot of shocking similarities between 29 and today. We responded differently this time, but IMO we’re no where near to fixing the problems that caused this mess.
I wouldn’t at all be surprised if we start hearing the words “more stimulus is needed” in 2010. Insert eye roll here.
Seems to me that all the stimulus worldwide has succeeded in doing is driving up asset prices in the stock markets and RE. At least in Canada we seem to be making the debt problem worse and not better. Not sure how people are so optomistic, but hey that’s just me.
October 30th, 2009 at 10:18 am
@oneangryslav2:
Not only the rental supply I think. I suspect there will be a sales listing boom as well as many folks who have been living lean for the last year or two to make their payments in the hopes of cashing in on the post-olympic boom try to cash out.
Of course we know that the, “boom” will actually be the sound made by the Vancouver balloon after the Olympic pin is pulled out.
October 30th, 2009 at 10:29 am
#9 @blueskies: Canada hasn’t done QE. Instead we got a commitment to hold interest rates low until Spring 2010, which is arguably much wiser. QE spooks the bond markets because nobody knows for sure how long it will go on or how much will be purchased or really what effect it will have. I think Mark Carney made a very good call here, and now he’s complaining about how government policy (CMHC) is feeding the real estate bubble. He’s right. The broader economy needs the bank’s low interest rates and the lower dollar that results. The housing bubble only continues because CMHC lending is out of control.
October 30th, 2009 at 10:50 am
The propaganda is leaking out :
http://seattletimes.nwsource.c.....010_p.html
Get ready for more you dip shits.
October 30th, 2009 at 11:09 am
@PorkyFlu:
this “deja vu yet” moment missed mentioning the
aircraft was an hour late in arriving
and because the flame went out somebody
had to relight it with their BIC lighter
October 30th, 2009 at 11:49 am
Oh that press release makes me want to puke! Good on the Seattle Times for running their particular take on this VANOC slop.
Yalie: I too was feeling the G&M had resorted to ethical journalism, what with Diane Francis’ recent article and others reporting real substance instead of the usual re kool aid we get from the Sun etc… I wonder if their recent reversion to pablum has anything to do with their being brought back into the “Canwest Family”…
October 30th, 2009 at 11:51 am
Oops, I just relaized I was thinking of the Finacial Post, not the Globe… never mind…
October 30th, 2009 at 12:02 pm
Talk about lies. GDP numbers continue to fall into the red yet the propaganda that the recession is officially over. How can that be? Is it a case of the Nazi model of propaganda where “if you repeat a lie often enough, people will start to believe it”?
http://www.globeinvestor.com/s.....5/GIStory/
October 30th, 2009 at 12:07 pm
#14 Porky Flu Thanks for posting that . The level of bullshit that is thrown at the Canadian public with the compliance of an unethical local media is sickening and has the average Canadian completley stupified and removed from the truth.
October 30th, 2009 at 12:23 pm
@Ulsterman:
While Chilliwack is insane, it wouldnt be that hard to believe that people would stay in new west for the games. If the place is by the skytrain then it is not a long journey to many of the venues.
Why anyone would pay the prices they are asking is beyond me, but I bet they give discounts off what they are asking.
October 30th, 2009 at 12:47 pm
@davers: What the collective blood pressure of Olympics-induced landlords go up dramatically when local hotels start releasing rooms as February approaches. Landlords in Salt Lake City, Torino, Athens, and Beijing all thought that they were going to make a killing renting out their rooms/hovels/apartments at exorbitant rates. Plans didn’t work out for most.
That’s not to say that some/many landlords won’t do well. If you have a decent place in the downtown core, you’ll probably do very, or spectacularly well. But people in Burnaby, Coquitlam and Richmond hoping for 300 dollars/night for their leaky-condo era studio will get a huge dose of reality come February.
October 30th, 2009 at 12:47 pm
@blueskies:
They say “western provinces” but really they just mean Alberta. They’re the only ones who would be hit significantly harder by regulation. The Conservatives are just trying to scare people into voting for them so they make the potential downside seem much more significant than it really is.
October 30th, 2009 at 1:01 pm
@Drachen: I’m not sure you’re right about that. One of the reasons BC’s coffers were spilling over the last few years was due to the royalties from natural gas deposits in the province. Since the price of natural gas (per mmBTU) has gone from a high of about $13 in July 2008 to a low of about $2.50 a few months ago, the toll on the BC government’s finances has been substantial.
October 30th, 2009 at 1:03 pm
Is that article on how great Vancouver condos are for real? I honestly can’t tell any more.
The author states:
“So, you can expect that at some point the roof, plumbing, elevator, windows, garage membrane, etc will all need to be replaced…”
But forgot to mention:”and you could get hit with a quarter million dollar bill out of the blue and no way to pay it since the Provincial program that used to secure the loan is now Kaput!”.
October 30th, 2009 at 1:37 pm
Porky Flu – that’s too funny! I look forward to more unraveling of the amateurish PR/ad wonk machine that thinks it’s going to invite the world over and baffle them with BS. So typical of the half-wits that run this province and have no idea what’s happening outside the pot smoke haze of BC.
Let Amateur Hour begin!
October 30th, 2009 at 1:43 pm
I attended the torch rally ceremony and let me tell you it was a complete and utter joke. BC will be the laughing stock of the world by the time this disaster is over. I knew it was going to be pathetic but I just didn’t realise the extent of it until now. The really surprising part for me was just how small the crowd was.
October 30th, 2009 at 2:03 pm
@oneangryslav2:
But:
a) Natural gas is cleaner burning than petrolium (petrolium produces 40% more CO2).
b) The carbon footprint to extract natural gas is practically 0 compared with oil from the tar sands.
c) The bulk of all these products is sold in the United States which would not be affected by Canadian regulation.
On the whole I think it might even have a short term positive effect as more people switch to natural gas because, relative to oil it would go down in price.
October 30th, 2009 at 2:21 pm
@denial: My impression is the US has spent their stimulus more broadly and deeply, whereas we have mostly put our money into propping up mortgage and housing market. We may not have had QE technically but the purchase of mortgages from banks by the government is a form of QE in my view.
October 30th, 2009 at 3:22 pm
@OlympicDisaster2010:
I’m sure they’ll make the crowd look big on the TV news. Thanks for the real story.
October 30th, 2009 at 3:42 pm
@blueskies:
Just curious why the federal government is even responding to a so-called economic report by the David Suzuki Foundation and Pembina Institute, two environmental groups.
What’s next, the Bank of Canada to hold a press conference on the latest missive from PETA?
October 30th, 2009 at 3:51 pm
#28 O, I have to agree with you. The US stimulus did go out to projects across the US whereas in Canada is has been limited to routine maintenance projects in government buildings. This came out in a news release yesterday if I can find the list I’ll post it. It has about 4300 projects listed and mostly in Conservative ridings.
The vast majority of the deficit spending and new debt has gone into propping up the CHMC debacle through the back door and shorting the Canadian dollar by the BOC buying huge multi billion dollar tranches of US dollara while the US dollar was crashing.
If these guys worked for a trading house they would have made world wide news like Nick Leason did when he lost billions of pounds on the sly. Not so if you’re the government of Canada with the taxpayer willing to pay up on all losses. All this shit has piled on debt like never before onto the taxpayer.
And now the Conservatives are trying to revisit the National Energy Policy from the 1970′s Liberal playbook by sticking it to Alta and BC for ‘carbon equalization’, what bullshit. Its a Federal Government desperate for cash short and simple.
All levels of government have spent themselves into a great sucking hole. The municipal government in Chilliwack is attacking the Girl Guides Camp for a property tax penalty of over $250,000 ( which will kill the program BTW) . This is the way things are going to be from here forward. Forget about laying off the parasite brothers in law from comfy government boondoggles. Hell no, lets fuck the Girl Guides!!!!! Who ARE these people?
The fuck ups disguising themselves as ‘Health Care Professionals’ are on the CBC offffffffffensive and are now blaming the public for the vaccine shortage as too many people have been showing up for the promised vaccine. How Machiavellian can you get? It wasn’t like they didn’t see the disease blossom in Mexico and did nothing to stop the spread. Its not like they didn’t see the exponential spread of the disease through the population over the past six months while saying that it would not come to Canada. Its not like it wasn’t them that stopped the production of the vaccine in order to sell the old stock first. all these chronologies are public information and NOW THEY BLAME US??????
Only in Canada.
meanwhile at long last it looks like the public has been complaining loud enough and the RCMP is on the hot seat. One MP asked on the floor of the House yesterday
” Are the police protecting us, or do we need protection from the police?” Good one.
More people are getting on side with this issue, about time.
W% is doing a big expose’ on police violence, watch for it. We need civilian oversight in the worst way. The current crop is the dregs of an old system which is completley broken.
I suggest that as the vast majority of killings are done by the Nintendo generation cops that all weapons be taken from police under the age of 50. The current crop don’t seem to give a shit about lives saved the way the cops of old did where a duty officer wouldn’t draw his weapon over the course of an entire career.
has anyone noticed that all the public relations people from the RCMP have been replaced by younger looking women? Tring to pull something are they? As their own veteran psychologist Dr Webster said recently ” The RCMP is an ethics free universe”.
October 30th, 2009 at 3:56 pm
Sorry thats W5 not W%
October 30th, 2009 at 4:00 pm
@chip:
the new meme is our planetary support system….
the politicians know the lumpen proletariat will demand they “DO SOMETHING!!” so a vain attempt
will be made to legislate AGW into the corner…..
the level of insanity required to believe this is simply breathtaking…..
October 30th, 2009 at 4:11 pm
I couldn’t not post this,
First the government lies and tells us that their stats show that all is improving. This I suppose to comfort you and get you to spend spend spend, which you did.
Now, the same numbers are “surprise’ all revised ( code for it was all BS) down to show that in fact its all worse than they had let on previously. In other words ‘Manipulation”.
What does this accomplish, well they got a whole whack to sign up for mortgages and now they get to beat down the $C dollar with the ugly truth stick.
Bwahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha , we’re fucked.
http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=2165351
October 30th, 2009 at 4:42 pm
RP – yes, we have been lied to. The blog community (esp sites such as Mish’s) have been calling this overly-positive (AKA bs) reporting all along. It saddens me, to be honest.
October 30th, 2009 at 5:00 pm
“You need growth, you need a healthy financial system to have a healthy economy. There are questions out there about how things go from here. Right now the government is fueling the system with cash. That can’t last forever.”
Stocks tumble on recovery jitters, financials
October 30th, 2009 at 5:22 pm
“There are questions out there about how things go from here. ”
- questions? seems like there is NO QUESTION anbout how things are going to go.
October 30th, 2009 at 6:39 pm
I think it’s fantastic that the Olympic torch looks like the biggest spliff ever assembled – it’s sooo BC.
Mayor Robertson should have put it in his mouth the second it was lit and then passed it to a startled and horrified Gordon Campbell.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/benhulse/3301150095/
October 30th, 2009 at 6:58 pm
And you can have one of your very own to keep, for the meagre prices of nearly $400 – direct from “pappy” IOC.
October 30th, 2009 at 7:01 pm
http://www.thestar.com/sports/.....cle/701892
$349, in fact. Plus taxes. Buy one NOW! Quick, before HST! Olympic torch “only ever go up”!
October 30th, 2009 at 7:14 pm
Landlords Sweeten Pot for Renters
Problems may be on the way. Office buildings often don’t show financial strain in the early stages of a downturn because they are occupied by tenants who have signed long-term leases. As long as the tenants stay in business, their landlords can even see revenue increases because of escalation clauses in their contracts.
The pain starts hitting when leases expire…
October 30th, 2009 at 8:17 pm
There is one thing I will miss from Paul/Gavin’s stats and that is the highest overlist and underlist daily stats. Even with the so called recovery in the housing market, the variance in this particular stat has been very elevated compared to pre bubble times. It suggests the market is still very volatile despite claims that it is in recovery mode. It was kinda of like a vix meter for Vancouver RE.
October 30th, 2009 at 8:20 pm
Correction, it is the District of Sechelt thats after the Girl Guides Camp and not the Municipality of Chilli wak wak wak . If I’ve offended anyone desperate enough to reside in that shithole I apologise.
October 30th, 2009 at 9:33 pm
What is this about rental rates going down, I see them going up and up in Yaletown, maybe Surrey area but not downtown.
October 30th, 2009 at 9:51 pm
@John: There’s falling rent in Tri-Cities and New West too. A year ago, new 2bd/bth condos in these areas would have asking rents from $1500-$1900. Now the norm is $1300-$1600.
BTW I understand they’ve already found grow-ops in the just-completed Plaza 88 development in New West. A friend of my Mom is panicking and trying to offload her condo ASAP. The place is ghost-towers – nobody living there is making it kinda creepy.
October 30th, 2009 at 10:14 pm
John, you are absolutely right. People can go on and on about the tricities area all they want, but Vancouver proper is not going down at all. Not yet.
October 30th, 2009 at 10:14 pm
The first highly successful anti-olympic protest occured in Victoria tonight. The baffoonery of the police in charge of security is just a taste of what’s in store for Vancouver. These donut gobblers have no idea how to deal with situations like this. I predict all out riots when this joke show hits Vancouver. I just hate this province so much now.
October 30th, 2009 at 11:25 pm
west end prices are down, and there are far more vacancies then previous years -
October 30th, 2009 at 11:58 pm
Hey 2010_ND
Don’t hate, relocate!
I’m doing my technical interview tomorrow, I hope to have the job wrapped up by the end of the week, then it’s off to Halifax.
I am so glad to get the hell out before the Olympic shit show begins. I’ll catch Sydney Crosby running the torch in Nova Scotia and please God, he’ll be wearing tights
.
I’m so optimistic about the future. The salary is close to what I made here in BC and for the same price as a crappy Yaletown rental, I can rent the whole floor of a Victorian house with heat lights hot water electricity cable AND internet included!
Even better, the population’s projected to DEACREASE, which means less competition for good jobs, and you will never ever EVER hear the phrase “Everyone wants to live here!”
Oh, and lobster’s 4 bucks a pound.
October 31st, 2009 at 12:05 am
@John & Little.
There are a lot of landlords beginning to sit with open inventory because they’re refusing to lower their prices – those who are priced to Vancouver wage earners are coming off the market quickly, and those buildings (with savvy, usually longer term, landlords), have dropped.
I’ve been watching the West End quite a bit, especially, and a lot of places that have attempted to gentrify are dealing with increasing vacancy loss compared to 6 months ago.
October 31st, 2009 at 12:30 am
My impressions of the rental market match Arwen’s. I’ve been passively looking to move, so have been on top of the market for about 3 or 4 months. Even in places like Yaletown and Coal Harbour prices are dropping. Not by much yet, as the specuvestors are basing their asking prices–particularly on Craigslist–not on what the market can bear, but on what they need to cover their mortgage payment. Something makes me think that Mr. Market will deal these budding Tom Vu’s a harsh lesson in reality.
October 31st, 2009 at 8:52 am
Good One John.
Problem is anyone who can read will see units that were rented for $2100 last year are vacant after two months at $1700.
Still thanks for coming out, you are always good for a laugh.
There might be people stupid enough to believe a troll instead of actually looking at the classifieds in the local paper, walking around downtown and going to showings, hell even Craigslist proves it’s down 25% since 2005.
October 31st, 2009 at 9:17 am
I know someone with a rental posted on Craigslist. It’s for a brand new 2bed/bath highrise in the Newport area of Port Moody.
He listed it a bit below his “competitors” of which there are MANY.
Not ONE contact in the past four days.
October 31st, 2009 at 9:53 am
Arguing that rents have not come down does not make a troll anymore than arguing that they have. They are still crazy expensive – not compared to mortgages, but they are high and getting higher. Don’t take my word for it though, look at this “reasonable” suite.
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....86228.html
October 31st, 2009 at 10:00 am
Here’s a fun little mashup that displays craigslist rentals on a google map. It would be neat if it would give a time-lapse view, but even as-is it’s pretty interesting:
http://www.padmapper.com
October 31st, 2009 at 10:45 am
I was just wondering how many landlords are gonna hold out for the big jackpot during the olympics. Only to price too high and end up getting a big fat 0 for the month of february and possibly march as they scramble to find a tenant.
October 31st, 2009 at 10:48 am
The article posted about mixed zoning residential and industrial made me laugh. I have seen it before in Asia. You know the place where all the rich people supposedly want to move from at all cost to live here.
And what is the point of this mixed zoning. Its not like we have much industry left. It just seems like a bad excuse to move our only growth industry housing into new neighborhoods.
October 31st, 2009 at 11:16 am
The Provincial “Health” Officials assure us that the death toll will continue to rise unabated.
http://www.vancouversun.com/he.....story.html
Now don’t you feel better. There is a spike of childrens deaths being reported in the US. Of course all deaths are not being reported in Canada. As in everything else, the government and the media whores want you to keep spending and don’t want to think the plan for recovery should be derailed by a few deaths.
But, they still expect their fat paychecks and perks packages don’t they? After proving themselves to be incompetant we still have to keep paying them the big bonuses don’t we?
When they come around to strike the next time we’ll have to remind them of the children who died due to the incompetance of the so called ‘Health Professionals”.
In other ‘Health ‘ news , did you know that Manitoba has a higher Tuberculosis infection rate than Bangladesh? Oh sure , we’re really number ONE!!!
http://www.vancouversun.com/he.....story.html
October 31st, 2009 at 11:56 am
Newsflash: Low interest rates may be starting to create a real estate bubble in Canada. But no worries, feds are watching the situation to make sure it doesn’t become a serious problem. Phew.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....le1346308/
October 31st, 2009 at 12:44 pm
After last weeks BOC ‘announcement’ that all economic numbers published by the government were being revised downward, we get this great guffaw from the US Veep.
http://www.realclearpolitics.c.....urate.html
Now, I don’t question the veracity of government pronouncements often. In fact I am prone to believe that the government is my freind and that they are watching out for me. But could something be going on here? Is the sudden international push for higher interest rates scaring some local ghosts out of the closet?
We have seen that the pronounced GDP numbers have been solely the creation of money dumping by various government agencies and that no real recovery is taking place. In fact we saw last week that unemployment in BC has increased 8.5% over the past month alone.
So why the sudden backpeddling? Thats a ponder all right. Is free money complacency affecting the polling numbers for the Federal Politicians. Could higher rates lead to a wave of unhappiness in the population as they suddenly get hit with double mortgage payments at the same time as having to pay double up gas prices, grocery bills and fees?
Could it be that the interest rate debate will have to wait until we see a federal election in Canada and get over the election cycle in the US? In that case, inflation would have steamrolled through the current price points and we would be looking at much higher prices for everything, including real estate. Politics and putting bread on the table have very little to do with one another.
October 31st, 2009 at 1:20 pm
I’ve spent the morning reading some interesting articles on the boc, cmhc, interest rates, flaherty, bubbles, re, usa… you name it and I’ve read it.
The RE bubble is so obvious, it’s painful. I no longer debate the issue with naysayers, I honestly don’t care. If anyone can’t see the writing on the wall, they’re more than likely allowing their emotions to formulate their opinions, rather than facts.
Higher interest rates are coming, no one, not even the most bullish on RE are arguing that. Variable rate mortgages that aren’t locked in will feel it first. 5 year fixed will feel it upon renewal. The bubble’s burst will go on for years and years, you can count on it.
There’s no point to the debate. In the end, when this all goes down, sure it’ll be nice to say ‘I told you so’ but really, what’s that worth? I don’t care to argue anymore. I’m just going to look after number one.
I’m really glad this site is still around, keep it up Pope.
October 31st, 2009 at 1:32 pm
@scullboy: Good luck scullboy! You were the best at giving satv/krishh sh%t! And thanks for being part of the solution. The more people that leave, the more prices will come down.
@scoop:
Initial teaser rates of 1.5%. What could go wrong?
@realpaul: What are you still doing here? Don’t you have a torch relay to disrupt?
October 31st, 2009 at 2:22 pm
#62 C, yes indeed, we should be getting our ‘fair share of abuse’ ( You can’t always get what you want , Rolling Stones)
It was pleasing to see that the Horse Charge that the mercenaries had planned was halted by a loosing of innocent marbles. Thats real brains over brawn. Violent intent met with non violent tactics. Bravo to the violence containment strategy of the people who are forcing the media to pay attention to the farcical advertising of the Olympics organizors and the punks who have drank the kool aid.
The cops said it wasn’t fair, so, then leave the animals out of it. Do they think they’re leading a charge against savages with sharpened pieces of mango? What is the horse charge but a bitter relic of authoritarion abuse?
I’m surprised the SPCA hasn’t lodged a protest against this animal abuse by the police force. Leave the animals alone, they have taken enough abuse from humans. They don’t deservge to be used as tools of destruction by the tools of destruction who ride them into crowds of innocent citizens.
http://www.theprovince.com/new.....story.html
Whats the matter with police these days? Why are they so fixated on violence dealing? Are they having to pay for their own dry cleaning or something? The Nintendo generation cops have become tuned out into an artificial world of video game macho violence and are obviously not psychologically competant to work with real people in the real world.
October 31st, 2009 at 2:51 pm
HST revealed as tax on savings. Insidious and sneaky governemnt tax grab digs deep on money you thought you’d already been taxed on.
http://communities.canada.com/.....e-hst.aspx
October 31st, 2009 at 3:02 pm
Hard lessons learned by US is going unnoticed by Canadian authorities.
‘More than any private sector actor, the federal government created systemic risk through its efforts to cajole or mandate banks to lend money to people for home purchases they couldn’t afford — particularly through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Loans enabled by these government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs), coupled with ones insured or required by government programs, account for nearly two-thirds of bad mortgages.
Fannie and Freddie were able to operate beyond market-based standards because everyone thought they were too big to fail and would be bailed out by the federal taxpayer. This belief became reality last year when they collapsed, and taxpayers were stuck with $1 trillion in bailout liabilities.”
http://www.usatoday.com/printe.....t1.art.htm
October 31st, 2009 at 3:42 pm
Really interesting analysis of the Canadian housing bubble on ‘Running of the Bulls’:
http://tinyurl.com/ybnz2dw
Here below I report their take on what is going on right now in Canada (and Vancouver in particular, as they mention):
Now, let us put this into a Canadian perspective, with some unique Canadian facts.
* Canada gets its house in fiscal order in the mid-1990s, becoming arguably the best run developed country in the world after being perhaps one of the most fiscally irresponsible during the 1970s and 80s.
* The Canadian economy, which is heavily reliant on commodity prices, takes off, particularly in western Canada. However, the strong loonie hits the manufacturing base of eastern Canada.
* Hedge funds became far more prominent in the financial markets. With the advent of technology, they search the world to take advantage of arbitrage opportunities and carry trades. (A carry trade is when a fund borrows in a country with a lower interest rate and lends in another country with a higher interest rate.)
* Hedge funds and other financial institutions begin to allocate more money to Canada because of the commodities boom and because of Canada’s fiscal position. The Canadian dollar, aka “the loonie” rises above par vis-a-vis the greenback and hits a multi-decade high.
* Liquidity floods into Canada, driving up asset prices, including home prices.
* Canadian banks were not as reckless as American financial institutions. Banking is better regulated in Canada and banks hold more capital than their American counter-parts. Banking is essentially an oligopoly, with six banks accounting for about 80% of the market in the country.
* Because Canada’s financial system is stronger, there is less forced selling of financial assets. A “death spiral” – whereby lower financial asset prices leads to impaired capital in the banking system, which leads to more selling, which leads to lower prices, which leads to more impaired capital, which leads to more selling, and so on – is fairly absent in Canadian fixed income markets.
* Therefore, Canadian housing prices fall less than their American counterparts as capital is not as constrained.
* Governments and central banks institute enormous amounts of stimulus around, depreciating the value of fiat currencies and increasing the prices of real assets, including commodities. Stimulus in China is rammed through the financial system as banks are told by Beijing to lend, leading to stock piling of raw materials in China, and higher commodity prices
* The Canadian economy is highly reliant on the United States. Roughly 40% of the Canadian economy is dependent upon exports, and 80% of Canadian exports go to the United States.
* The US government’s and the Fed’s actions are bearish for the US dollar. The US dollar becomes the currency to finance the global carry trade. The dollar begins to fall and the loonie begins to rise.
* In response, the Bank of Canada keeps interest rates low to offset the weakness in the US and to avoid the loonie from rising too high against the greenback, lest the strong loonie wipes out the manufacturing base of eastern Canada.
* Low interest rates spur borrowing for mortgages. Sales of Canadian homes reaccelerate. In some cities such as Vancouver, home sales over the past few months are breaking all-time highs.
October 31st, 2009 at 4:48 pm
CTV runs W5 story that produces evidence of BC RCMP cover up in the deaths of 3 men. Says that government has seen proof and was aware of the evidence that directly contradicts the stories of the RCMP yet chose not to proceed with investigation or charges which seem to have indicated charges of murder and wrongful deaths been merited based on the facts of evidence involving these citizens deaths at the hands of the RCMP.
This issue has been a long time coming to the surface. People in Canada have been treated with gross disrespect by the government and media at having been managed like a bunch of retards who can’t make their own decisions.
RCMP-an ethics free universe’, that should be the new motto on the sides of the cruisers.
October 31st, 2009 at 4:52 pm
Ahhh cute, a baby bidding on a house.
http://www.yourhome.ca/homes/n.....your-house
October 31st, 2009 at 5:40 pm
Vansanity
DITTO … I don’t even have the energy to read about it anymore
October 31st, 2009 at 8:14 pm
Just watched the damning W5 report on the RCMP and the cozy system of hiding , lieing, tampering , denying and bullshit that I have been reporting on this and many sites for several years. I hope that people insist that truth will make for a better Canada and will watch this report until they immediatley email or phone your local and federal MP to demand justice, criminal charges and a complete rout of the miscreants and fools that have been thrust into positions of power by seniority instead of ability or any will to serve the public.
It was only after public pressure was focused on the church that the pedophiles and molesters were jailed. We need long prison sentences for the RCMP officers who have murdered citizens. RCMP is not above the law, they only think they are now. But just like the molesters we will drag them out of their retirement homes and away from their Christmas dinners to imprison them and force them to face the victims in shame.
I’m sure all the deniers and the crazies who have demanded my head on this issue are lining up to apologise for having their heads up their asses.
When a national braodcast like W5 exposes the truth I feel justified.
When the Police Complaints Inquiry office is branded an RCMP apologist by the media I am justified.
When a member of the legislature stands up and says ” Are we being protected by the police, or do we need protection FROM the police” I feel justified.
When a thirty year veteran of the RCMP comes out and says ” The RCMP is an ethics free universe” I feel justified.
For all of you people who are bringing these lies to the attention of the international media , feel righteous when you make out that fiftieth call. maybe it’s the constant streaming that breaks stories like the Economist ran recently on the bullshit facade that is Vancouver. Keep up the good work. We’ll get these bastards eventually as has proven to be the case with the molesters and the RCMP.
October 31st, 2009 at 9:05 pm
“I’m sure all the deniers and the crazies who have demanded my head on this issue ”
————
Who are you?
Ego much? Legend in your own lunchbox?
October 31st, 2009 at 9:47 pm
RealPaul, it must take amazing strength to rail against the man on a blog read by hundreds of Vancouverites. How do you cope? Aren’t you afraid the police will eventually track down your whereabouts and put you away?
October 31st, 2009 at 10:19 pm
Looks like the flu vaccine is unavailable in Alberta and that will be the case very soon here in BC. In the US they are finding that kids die in surprising numbers and they are telling parents to take their kids to the hospital quickly if they suspect pork flu. Here they tell you to stay home unless you feel you are dying. Let’s see how this plays out. I suspect many Canadians will soon be learning just how great “free” healthcare really is.
November 1st, 2009 at 9:26 am
“The bubble’s burst will go on for years and years, you can count on it.” -Vansanity
Not so fast. Vancouver will surprise you to the downside. Quick and without mercy.
“Investors” will wish they had never heard of this pipsqueak town.
November 1st, 2009 at 9:29 am
“I’m sure all the deniers and the crazies who have demanded my head on this issue are lining up to apologise for having their heads up their asses.” -reapaul
Actually, their heads are on the floor.
They got there by laughing so hard.
November 1st, 2009 at 9:37 am
@Boombust:
An initial crash, perhaps. But when you consider the number of renewals that will come up between 2011-2014 with rates higher, it will go on and on…
I remember reading somewhere that in real estate the bust is typically twice as long as the boom. If that trend is true, we’re looking at a 20 year bust. Think about that for a minute, that means RE won’t see an upwards trend until around 2030! People with plenty of “skin in the game” better hope and pray that is not the case and I’m just an idiot on some blog.
November 1st, 2009 at 11:18 am
“I remember reading somewhere that in real estate the bust is typically twice as long as the boom.”
Interesting that you bring this up. I remember reading the exact opposite.
I also remember Warren Buffett saying that 20% off the top is guaranteed after ANY boom.
Hmmm…so that, coupled with “the premium” extra prices people have paid, looks like a supernovae blow-off to me.
And, sooner than “most people” think.
Baaa, baaaaaaaaaa!
November 1st, 2009 at 11:19 am
@ Vansanity I was under the impression that many bubbles are symmetrical in nature. http://tinyurl.com/n3ntfu
November 1st, 2009 at 11:25 am
One more thing about this Olympics nonsense…
As I have said before, all the mega-projests such as EXPO 86, the Alex Fraser Bridge, Northeast Coal, The Expo Skytrain line, BC Place Stadium… didn’t do anything to energize the housing market in the early ’80′s.
So, how some people believe a TWO WEEK EVENT (and the structures are now all built!) is going to prop up an economy that is getting weaker by the day, is beyond me.
Dumb and dumber.
November 1st, 2009 at 11:28 am
Oh, and of COURSE we hosted the 1976 United Nations “Habitat Forum”.
Anyone remember the giddiness over THAT?
I do.
November 1st, 2009 at 11:31 am
@nonymouse: Agreed. Assuming the pop occurs post-Owelympics in 2010, we will have had a run-up of 8 or 9 years. So look for the next run-up starting around 2018-2019 (after all those years of falling prices, and having friends and family go through hell). Jeez, I’ll be an old man then.
Wanderlust is returning.
November 1st, 2009 at 11:34 am
@Boombust: I vaguely remember it as I was really young. A lot of good that did us
November 1st, 2009 at 11:43 am
When the crash does return ‘for real’ (summer 2010?), I’m anticipating a fairly rapid fall over about 2 years (30-40%), with demand seizing up and hot money speculators getting out. This will be followed by perhaps 5 years of slower grind down, well past 50%-off pricing, as all the 5 year mortgages reset (at much higher rates, forcing sales) and the boomers start getting out.
(The only way this trajectory could be different is in hyperinflationary circumstances.)
One ugly consequence is going to be the wrecked retirement plans of those who have almost their entire networth in their primary residence.
I suspect I’ll buy a house from one of the earlier boomer-bailers in about two years time.
November 1st, 2009 at 1:14 pm
@Boombust: @nonymouse:
I tried to find whatever I read the bust to boom ratio. For some reason Peter Schiff comes to mind, but when I google it, I find nothing.
I did find an IMF essay from 2003 that says RE busts are twice as long as equity busts (typically 2.5 years). So to end the topic, the bust will last 5 years, minimum.
But first… it must begin.
November 1st, 2009 at 4:44 pm
More green shoots
http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/.....uptcy.html
November 1st, 2009 at 5:31 pm
“meaning the U.S. government will lose the $2.3 billion it sank into CIT last year to prop up the ailing company”
——–
If I was a US taxpayer/voter, I would be so so happy today…
What’s another 2.3 billion?
November 1st, 2009 at 5:49 pm
Fall in rent in most US metropolitan areas
From the WSJ via Calculated Risk:
http://tinyurl.com/ygk423m
“.. Equity Residential said new tenants in the third quarter paid 9% to 10% less rent than the previous residents. … Denver-based UDR is offering renewing tenants a flat-screen TV, new carpet, kitchen upgrade or, $300 in cash. … Some landlords have also become more open-minded about tenants with credit issues involving home foreclosures.”
AND
“Note: REIT BRE reports tomorrow and their CEO always some interesting comments.
“I think it is shaping up there is another leg down in terms of market rents and effective rents and that will be somewhere late this year or early [next] year where I think all the operators will move their rents down to basically handle the late stage of this recession.”
BRE CEO, Aug 5, 2009″
Of course, Vancouver is nothing like SF, LA, NY or Chicago….we have the Olympics!
November 1st, 2009 at 5:50 pm
“Longer Looking Says:
November 1st, 2009 at 11:34 am
Boombust: I vaguely remember it as I was really young. A lot of good that did us.”
The 1976 UN “Habitat Forum” featured all kinds of exhibits/displays from downtown all the way to Jericho.
In one of the old Jericho aircraft hangars, they boasted about having the longest bar in the world.
(So much for our Islamic visitors…te he…)
I remember seeing delegates wandering around town in their “native dress” whenever possible.
A friend of mine managed to get ahold of the cardboard furniture that was part of the Gov’t of Canada display at the Courthouse fountain.
Although it was a little “stiff” to sit on, it looked great in his second floor suite (overlooking the daily traffic jams) in that old building that is still on the corner of Davie and Burrard. (Rent then was $125.00/mo.)
So, there you have it.
Two years later, in Europe, someone asked me where Vancouver was.
November 1st, 2009 at 6:25 pm
“all the mega-projests such as EXPO 86, the Alex Fraser Bridge, Northeast Coal, The Expo Skytrain line, BC Place Stadium…”
Oh, and don’t forget the Coquihalla Highway.
November 2nd, 2009 at 12:00 pm
Looks like the realturds will actually have to start working a bit harder!!!!
http://www.yourhome.ca/homes/n.....alty-costs
November 2nd, 2009 at 1:38 pm
It’s clear this market is still wildly overvalued, however it’s been chugging ever upwards in obvious defiance of fundamentals and bears’ analysis for quite a few years now, so what bursts the bubble and when? People who need to make future RE plans (rent/buy) want to know! Predictions?
November 2nd, 2009 at 2:17 pm
I read the paper and they said it will burst on Nov. 6 at 4pm.. better double check with a realtor.
November 2nd, 2009 at 2:20 pm
“This unraveling may not occur for a while, as easy money and excessive global liquidity can push asset prices higher for a while. But the longer and bigger the carry trades and the larger the asset bubble, the bigger will be the ensuing asset bubble crash. The Fed and other policymakers seem unaware of the monster bubble they are creating. The longer they remain blind, the harder the markets will fall. ”
http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....le1347932/
PS, good to see the clowns are still following the story. Awareness changes attitudes, one fool at a time.
November 2nd, 2009 at 2:24 pm
http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....le1347932/
Nice to see the fools are being dragged into the story kicking and screaming. Denial becomes increasingly uncomfortable doesn’t it. One fool at a time, thats all it takes.
November 2nd, 2009 at 2:25 pm
Krikey, double post, sorry.
November 2nd, 2009 at 2:35 pm
@Purp:
My predictions are as follows:
Spring 2010 there is a listings boom as people who have been holding out for the post-olympic rush of foreign investment finally sell, prices stagnate or fall somewhat while inventory skyrockets, by the end of summer prices are falling decisively.
Fall 2010 prices continue to fall while listings remain above anything we’ve seen up until now although many are taken off the market in the hopes that they can be re-listed to sell (at a lower price) in the spring.
Spring-Summer 2011 prices continue to fall, people around Vancouver who have been stubbornly refusing to admit that real-estate can and does go down suddenly realize they were wrong, in the rush for the exits listings boom and prices begin to drop like a stone (until 2011 I do not foresee really big drops, here is where the curve begins to pick up steam). At the same time affordability is dropping as the BOC begins to raise rates and some borderline mortgage owners are forced to sell because they can no longer make payments.
Fall 2012 – Time to buy! Prices have fallen nearly 60% and if you do some bargain hunting you can make some serious deals from shell-shocked owners or on bank foreclosures.
2013- onwards. Prices begin to settle, at approximately 40% of peak values. Government regulation (I hope!) and the shock of thousands of people declaring bankruptcy helps to stabilize the market as people realize the dangers inherent in this sort of bubble (and then everyone promptly goes off to invest in a DIFFERENT bubble).
That’s my best guess. I’d only give about even odds on the exact timing, as we’ve seen government intervention can delay the inevitable for years and I think it’s entirely possible that we’re so far beyond what other markets in North America have seen things could fall abnormally fast, so give or take a year on the overall cycle.
Price percentages are in adjusted dollars from peak values.
November 2nd, 2009 at 2:36 pm
Whoops, I added “At the same time affordability is dropping as the BOC begins to raise rates and some borderline mortgage owners are forced to sell because they can no longer make payments.” to the wrong section, I meant that to be at the end of Spring 2010.
November 2nd, 2009 at 3:20 pm
I heard a story on CBC Radio this morning warning would-be landlords to Olympics visitors that the riches they’d dreamed about may remain but a dream. This was with Cecilia Walters and she interviewed someone local–who runs a company that helps place visitors in private accommodation–and this gentleman (whose name I failed to catch) claimed that expected room rates have fallen 50%.
So, while landlords had believed that they could get about $600/night for their condo/apartment, they should only expect about $300/night. I think that even this is wishful thinking for most. I’ve also heard from people who work there, that some local hotels–Richmond, Burnaby, Coquitlam–have many, many rooms to spare during February.
November 2nd, 2009 at 5:35 pm
98:
Yeah – I have friends trying to let their condo – which overlooks the Olympic village – and the company they lsited with failed compeltetly to do so, despite continual reassurances.
November 2nd, 2009 at 6:17 pm
@oneangryslav2:
So you heard from people. Watch the rental rates skyrocket at the last few days before the Olympics begin. There will be a mad scramble for accommodations.
There are so many bears here it’s unbelievable. You people think it’s all about the Olympics. There are so many new immigrants ready to scoop out properties here at any cost. It’s unfortunate that some of you don’t own a place, if you do and decide to put up a for sale sign on your house, you’ll have people lined up ready to bid up the prices.