There are so many bears here it’s unbelievable. You people think it’s all about the Olympics. There are so many new immigrants ready to scoop out properties here at any cost. It’s unfortunate that some of you don’t own a place, if you do and decide to put up a for sale sign on your house, you’ll have people lined up ready to bid up the prices.

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Yeah – I have friends trying to let their condo – which overlooks the Olympic village – and the company they lsited with failed compeltetly to do so, despite continual reassurances.

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So, while landlords had believed that they could get about $600/night for their condo/apartment, they should only expect about $300/night. I think that even this is wishful thinking for most. I’ve also heard from people who work there, that some local hotels–Richmond, Burnaby, Coquitlam–have many, many rooms to spare during February.

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My predictions are as follows:

Spring 2010 there is a listings boom as people who have been holding out for the post-olympic rush of foreign investment finally sell, prices stagnate or fall somewhat while inventory skyrockets, by the end of summer prices are falling decisively.

Fall 2010 prices continue to fall while listings remain above anything we’ve seen up until now although many are taken off the market in the hopes that they can be re-listed to sell (at a lower price) in the spring.

Spring-Summer 2011 prices continue to fall, people around Vancouver who have been stubbornly refusing to admit that real-estate can and does go down suddenly realize they were wrong, in the rush for the exits listings boom and prices begin to drop like a stone (until 2011 I do not foresee really big drops, here is where the curve begins to pick up steam). At the same time affordability is dropping as the BOC begins to raise rates and some borderline mortgage owners are forced to sell because they can no longer make payments.

Fall 2012 – Time to buy! Prices have fallen nearly 60% and if you do some bargain hunting you can make some serious deals from shell-shocked owners or on bank foreclosures.

2013- onwards. Prices begin to settle, at approximately 40% of peak values. Government regulation (I hope!) and the shock of thousands of people declaring bankruptcy helps to stabilize the market as people realize the dangers inherent in this sort of bubble (and then everyone promptly goes off to invest in a DIFFERENT bubble).

That’s my best guess. I’d only give about even odds on the exact timing, as we’ve seen government intervention can delay the inevitable for years and I think it’s entirely possible that we’re so far beyond what other markets in North America have seen things could fall abnormally fast, so give or take a year on the overall cycle.

Price percentages are in adjusted dollars from peak values.

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Nice to see the fools are being dragged into the story kicking and screaming. Denial becomes increasingly uncomfortable doesn’t it. One fool at a time, thats all it takes.

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http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....le1347932/

PS, good to see the clowns are still following the story. Awareness changes attitudes, one fool at a time.

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http://www.yourhome.ca/homes/n.....alty-costs

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Oh, and don’t forget the Coquihalla Highway.

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November 1st, 2009 at 11:34 am

Boombust: I vaguely remember it as I was really young. A lot of good that did us.”

The 1976 UN “Habitat Forum” featured all kinds of exhibits/displays from downtown all the way to Jericho.

In one of the old Jericho aircraft hangars, they boasted about having the longest bar in the world.

(So much for our Islamic visitors…te he…)

I remember seeing delegates wandering around town in their “native dress” whenever possible.

A friend of mine managed to get ahold of the cardboard furniture that was part of the Gov’t of Canada display at the Courthouse fountain.

Although it was a little “stiff” to sit on, it looked great in his second floor suite (overlooking the daily traffic jams) in that old building that is still on the corner of Davie and Burrard. (Rent then was $125.00/mo.)

So, there you have it.

Two years later, in Europe, someone asked me where Vancouver was.

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From the WSJ via Calculated Risk:

http://tinyurl.com/ygk423m

“.. Equity Residential said new tenants in the third quarter paid 9% to 10% less rent than the previous residents. … Denver-based UDR is offering renewing tenants a flat-screen TV, new carpet, kitchen upgrade or, $300 in cash. … Some landlords have also become more open-minded about tenants with credit issues involving home foreclosures.”

AND

“Note: REIT BRE reports tomorrow and their CEO always some interesting comments.

“I think it is shaping up there is another leg down in terms of market rents and effective rents and that will be somewhere late this year or early [next] year where I think all the operators will move their rents down to basically handle the late stage of this recession.”
BRE CEO, Aug 5, 2009″

Of course, Vancouver is nothing like SF, LA, NY or Chicago….we have the Olympics!

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If I was a US taxpayer/voter, I would be so so happy today…

What’s another 2.3 billion?

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http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/.....uptcy.html

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I tried to find whatever I read the bust to boom ratio. For some reason Peter Schiff comes to mind, but when I google it, I find nothing.

I did find an IMF essay from 2003 that says RE busts are twice as long as equity busts (typically 2.5 years). So to end the topic, the bust will last 5 years, minimum.

But first… it must begin.

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Anyone remember the giddiness over THAT?

I do.

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As I have said before, all the mega-projests such as EXPO 86, the Alex Fraser Bridge, Northeast Coal, The Expo Skytrain line, BC Place Stadium… didn’t do anything to energize the housing market in the early ’80′s.

So, how some people believe a TWO WEEK EVENT (and the structures are now all built!) is going to prop up an economy that is getting weaker by the day, is beyond me.

Dumb and dumber.

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Interesting that you bring this up. I remember reading the exact opposite.

I also remember Warren Buffett saying that 20% off the top is guaranteed after ANY boom.

Hmmm…so that, coupled with “the premium” extra prices people have paid, looks like a supernovae blow-off to me.

And, sooner than “most people” think.

Baaa, baaaaaaaaaa!

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An initial crash, perhaps. But when you consider the number of renewals that will come up between 2011-2014 with rates higher, it will go on and on…

I remember reading somewhere that in real estate the bust is typically twice as long as the boom. If that trend is true, we’re looking at a 20 year bust. Think about that for a minute, that means RE won’t see an upwards trend until around 2030! People with plenty of “skin in the game” better hope and pray that is not the case and I’m just an idiot on some blog.

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