So you heard from people. Watch the rental rates skyrocket at the last few days before the Olympics begin. There will be a mad scramble for accommodations.

There are so many bears here it's unbelievable. You people think it's all about the Olympics. There are so many new immigrants ready to scoop out properties here at any cost. It's unfortunate that some of you don't own a place, if you do and decide to put up a for sale sign on your house, you'll have people lined up ready to bid up the prices.

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Yeah – I have friends trying to let their condo – which overlooks the Olympic village – and the company they lsited with failed compeltetly to do so, despite continual reassurances.

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So, while landlords had believed that they could get about $600/night for their condo/apartment, they should only expect about $300/night. I think that even this is wishful thinking for most. I've also heard from people who work there, that some local hotels–Richmond, Burnaby, Coquitlam–have many, many rooms to spare during February.

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My predictions are as follows:

Spring 2010 there is a listings boom as people who have been holding out for the post-olympic rush of foreign investment finally sell, prices stagnate or fall somewhat while inventory skyrockets, by the end of summer prices are falling decisively.

Fall 2010 prices continue to fall while listings remain above anything we've seen up until now although many are taken off the market in the hopes that they can be re-listed to sell (at a lower price) in the spring.

Spring-Summer 2011 prices continue to fall, people around Vancouver who have been stubbornly refusing to admit that real-estate can and does go down suddenly realize they were wrong, in the rush for the exits listings boom and prices begin to drop like a stone (until 2011 I do not foresee really big drops, here is where the curve begins to pick up steam). At the same time affordability is dropping as the BOC begins to raise rates and some borderline mortgage owners are forced to sell because they can no longer make payments.

Fall 2012 – Time to buy! Prices have fallen nearly 60% and if you do some bargain hunting you can make some serious deals from shell-shocked owners or on bank foreclosures.

2013- onwards. Prices begin to settle, at approximately 40% of peak values. Government regulation (I hope!) and the shock of thousands of people declaring bankruptcy helps to stabilize the market as people realize the dangers inherent in this sort of bubble (and then everyone promptly goes off to invest in a DIFFERENT bubble).

That's my best guess. I'd only give about even odds on the exact timing, as we've seen government intervention can delay the inevitable for years and I think it's entirely possible that we're so far beyond what other markets in North America have seen things could fall abnormally fast, so give or take a year on the overall cycle.

Price percentages are in adjusted dollars from peak values.

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Nice to see the fools are being dragged into the story kicking and screaming. Denial becomes increasingly uncomfortable doesn't it. One fool at a time, thats all it takes.

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http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/mot…

PS, good to see the clowns are still following the story. Awareness changes attitudes, one fool at a time.

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