Vancouver 5 year population growth
You know how everyone wants to live in Vancouver right? Well apparently not so many of them are achieving that dream. Crabman posted these numbers in a comment last week putting our population growth in perspective when compared to a few other North American cities. That’s us over on the right in the graph above, with a measly 6.5% population growth over five years. The numbers come from Statistics Canada and the US Census Bureau.
Now what you’d expect with rapid population growth is higher prices for real estate, while anemic growth should result in slower appreciation. A couple of the quickest growing cities in this list are notable for their rapid rise in home prices: Las Vegas & Phoenix Arizona. Both cities saw a big run-up in prices until just a couple of years ago. As most of you know, prices in those cities have since corrected by as much as 50% despite their real population growth.
So what’s happening in Vancouver? We clearly haven’t had a tremendous increase in population compared to other North American cities, so what keeps the cost of our homes so high? Is the rain dissolving our buildings faster than we can construct them, thus keeping supply low? Are we just a whole lot richer than other cities or are we drunk on rampant speculation and easy credit?
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patriotz Says:
October 5th, 2009 at 5:21 am
The indicator of actual supply of shelter versus actual demand is real rents:
http://cuer.sauder.ubc.ca/cma/.....couver.pdf
Note that real rents stayed almost constant through the 80’s and 90’s, and then started declining after 2000. Why? Because the sale price of housing rose far above rental value, which means that the supply of new housing (which increases with sale price) grew more than actual demand for shelter.
Falling real rents mean excess supply.
Excess growth of supply of an asset is characteristic of bubbles and the end result is the “ghost towns” now found in Ireland (1 in 7 dwellings vacant), US (1 in 8), Spain, etc.
The reason prices of Vancouver RE are so high is that buyers are willing to pay far above rental value for a property in expectation of future capital gains. In other words, it is a classic speculative bubble, just like in the US, UK, Ireland, Spain, etc, and it will end in the same way, i.e. a bust.
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realpaul Says:
October 5th, 2009 at 8:11 am
Signifigant court ruling spells big trouble for US Banks in the mortgage debacle
“Waking up to discover the mortgage market was a giant criminal enterprise
A landmark ruling in a recent Kansas Supreme Court case may have given millions of distressed homeowners the legal wedge they need to avoid foreclosure. In Landmark National Bank v. Kesler, 2009 Kan. LEXIS 834, the Kansas Supreme Court held that a nominee company called MERS has no right or standing to bring an action for foreclosure. MERS is an acronym for Mortgage Electronic Registration Systems, a private company that registers mortgages electronically and tracks changes in ownership. The significance of the holding is that if MERS has no standing to foreclose, then nobody has standing to foreclose – on 60 million mortgages. That is the number of American mortgages currently reported to be held by MERS. Over half of all new U.S. residential mortgage loans are registered with MERS and recorded in its name. Holdings of the Kansas Supreme Court are not binding on the rest of the country, but they are dicta of which other courts take note; and the reasoning behind the decision is sound.
via Landmark Decision: Massive Relief for Homeowners and Trouble for the Banks.
This is a potentially gigantic story. It seems that a court has ruled that about half of the mortgage market has been run as a criminal enterprise for years, which would invalidate any potential forelosure proceedings for about, oh, 60 million mortgages”
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untitled Says:
October 5th, 2009 at 8:21 am
6.5% may not look stellar beside other numbers, but its doubling time is still 11 years. Which seems faster than GVRD can handle anyway.
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No Brain (Untitled) Says:
October 5th, 2009 at 9:03 am
Untitled:
Please read the links. That is the 5-year total growth. The annual rate is about 1.27% for Vancouver from 2001-2006. At 1.27% per year growth it would take about 55 years to double the population.
Someone posted the same misinterpreted conclusion (11 years to double) on crabman’s post in the other thread. I bet you are just perpetuating the “population growth” myth about Vancouver real estate. Go piss off.
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Alpha_Bear Says:
October 5th, 2009 at 9:08 am
Re: Landmark National Bank v. Kesler,
There’s a good write-up regarding this ruling on Calculated Risk.
In this case the borrower was paid the funds which normally would have gone to the holder of the second mortgage.
I do not think this ruling means what you think it means.
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untitled Says:
October 5th, 2009 at 9:19 am
@ No Brain:
My mistake. Thank you for being so patient and polite in helping me realise it.
For the record, I am as full of Schadenfreude and gloating as you are every time I hear that Vancouver RE is not doing as well as it is reported in the mainstream media.
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kansai_92 Says:
October 5th, 2009 at 9:42 am
Pretty much sums it up right here.
Simply state, everyone decided that piling on more debt was a good idea.
From housinganalysis blog:
The positive correlation
between consumption and house prices may be related to housing’s role as collateral. Between
2000 and 2007 the real price of existing homes increased by 52 per cent. At the same time,
the ratio of household debt to GDP rose dramatically from 58 per cent in 2000 to 76 percent
in 2007.
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neighbour Says:
October 5th, 2009 at 9:44 am
I think population growth is considerably higher in Van but not necessarily recorded due to fact that all kind of criminals and “business” folks need to keep low profile therefore they don’t add up to statistics.
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Anonymous Says:
October 5th, 2009 at 9:50 am
Silly bears with your logic, reasoning and facts you’ll never learn to fly like me.
-Icarus
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shikko Says:
October 5th, 2009 at 9:58 am
@neighbour said: I think population growth is considerably higher in Van but not necessarily recorded due to fact that all kind of criminals and “business” folks need to keep low profile therefore they don’t add up to statistics.
Well, since the “everyone wants to move to BC” is trotted out as a large demand that pushes up prices, that doesn’t make sense: they can only push up demand by buying property, and if they buy property, they’re counted in the population growth numbers. You can’t buy property here without creating a footprint that would get you counted as living here.
Are you saying that while the population looks to have grown anemically over the past five years, there is actually a “shadow” population of migrants (be it international or domestic) and criminals who are nonetheless pushing up real estate values?
All the people in Canada have to live somewhere, which means there will be a record. If what you say is true, there are a large number of people here that do not pay utilities or taxes; have bank accounts; receive benefits; have driver’s licenses or otherwise interact with the (local, provincial or federal) government in any way. Where are they? Remember, they have to own homes to have the effect that is claimed of them.
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patriotz Says:
October 5th, 2009 at 10:04 am
@neighbour:
I see we have moved from the “hidden income” rationalization to the “hidden population” rationalization.
And my reply is the same: Why are real rents falling?
BTW, if the actual population had gotten out of whack with census figures don’t you think someone would have picked up a discrepancy in hydro hookups, telephones, car registrations, school enrollments, MSP, etc.?
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Little Says:
October 5th, 2009 at 10:46 am
Again, I am not sure where anyone gets the idea that rents have fallen in the city of Vancouver. When I was in University about 4- 6 years ago, I shared many an $800 two bedroom suite in East Van. Try to find anything close to that today.
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read on Says:
October 5th, 2009 at 11:09 am
yup, in East Van you can. just don’t look on craigslist, as most landlords there have unreal expectations.
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neighbour Says:
October 5th, 2009 at 11:29 am
Well… I might went a bit over the edge with my statement in order to bold out all those anomalies that we all know about like loaded folks with no real jobs, drug lords, family run crystal labs, export-import prostitution, gangs, money laundry, etc so I apologize if I caused some bad feelings around.
It worked from where I came in a way where gangsters would remain in the shadow and just use miserable and poor ppl as a facade, provide basics for them in return for silence and loyalty so at the and everyone would get a peace be ok.
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patriotz Says:
October 5th, 2009 at 11:33 am
@neighbour:
No bad feelings neighbour, I just want to know, if there are all those hidden people and/or all that hidden income, why rents aren’t higher?
Cities that actually have high populations of undocumented residents and/or high amounts of unreported income have high rents. Places like Moscow, for example.
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read on Says:
October 5th, 2009 at 12:09 pm
neighbour – where did you come from? Somalia? Sicily?
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NO - LYMPICS Says:
October 5th, 2009 at 12:52 pm
Drove home last nite about 7PM and lookd up at some Hi-Rises.
My guesstimate is about 80% had no lights on, completely dark.
I recall BC Hydro claiming that if a given unit uses X amount of power,basically the monthly amount of power a fridge uses, its not deemed vacant. Well, I think many of these units are actually vacant, the owners too lazy or dumb to unplug the fridge and prop it open to vent .
If Vancouver has only had 6 % growth rate in 5 years…the conclusion I draw is , as patriotz said, simply specuvesting. There were far more units built than necessary to accomodate this growth.
Rents stayed high for a time because no one was renting them…but that will change as the greater fools ( including ex renters)this unsustainable market drew in now panic for revenue to prop up their bad investment.
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Wreckonomics Says:
October 5th, 2009 at 1:05 pm
@neighbour: there’s another problem with your reasoning: ill-gotten gains are not new, so how would they explain prices shooting up over the five years with low population growth? Werent people selling drugs and laundering money before then?
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patriotz Says:
October 5th, 2009 at 1:11 pm
@Wreckonomics:
Also there are other places in the world where there is a lot of drug selling and money laundering – and undocumented population.
Like Miami, for example – now down 47% from peak.
http://www.calculatedriskblog......se-in.html
I have no doubt that people there were making the same argument a few years ago.
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Anon Says:
October 5th, 2009 at 1:42 pm
It is time to stop analyzing what is going on in Vancouver. There is no logic to it, it is unpredictable and it is best to just get as far away from this crazy place as possible.
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NO- LYMPICS Says:
October 5th, 2009 at 3:13 pm
The party’s over for Chinese in Africa
http://www.vancouversun.com/sp.....story.html
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read on Says:
October 5th, 2009 at 3:15 pm
Anon – no need. Just rent here cheaply and enjoy life until things return to reality.
It’s all good.
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EB Says:
October 5th, 2009 at 3:48 pm
“Miners and their families in Zambia and across the border into Congo’s mineral-rich southeastern province of Katanga have rioted over the appalling safety and slave-labour working conditions in Chinese-run mines.
People on the streets in Zimbabwe, who are not short justifiable complaints, rail at the takeover of locally owned retail businesses by Chinese entrepreneurs.”
Heh. They must be a bunch of racists.
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mk-kids Says:
October 5th, 2009 at 4:47 pm
Looked at a place today listed at $1875. Its been vacant a month or more, the property manager said he is trying to get the offshore owner to reduce the price (the last tenant paid $1850 so naturally the next one should pay $1875 according to the owner). He said the owner just doesn’t get that its a whole new ballgame, lots of inventory out there & renters in the drivers seat. He encouraged us if we were interested to make an offer and request new flooring. We saw a better laid-out suite in the same building with a huge storage locker go for about $400 p/mo less recently so I figure this one should rent about $600 p/mo less than current asking given the poor layout and lack of storage.
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skiff Says:
October 5th, 2009 at 4:52 pm
patriotz (or anyone who knows), does “real rents” simply mean adjusted for inflation or is there more to it?
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real scenario Says:
October 5th, 2009 at 5:07 pm
My girlfriend and I are in our mid to late 20’s living at home mainly cause we don’t want to buy anything in this market. Combine income of 110k/year. Recently her mom is insisting that she buys something.
Her reasons:
1. start building equity
2. with our incomes and help with the downpayment, we can get a nice townhouse 400-450k range (burnaby, coq area) and be comfortable even when rates do go up.
3. if you decide you need something more, you can always rent it out and buy again. Even though the rent may not cover the mortgage, at least most of it is going towards something you own.
4. rent is like throwing your money away.
my counter argument.
1. Although we can technically afford a place like that, I look at value more than affordability.
2. prices are so far from fundamentals and avg incomes, its just not sustainable. Would bother me if 450k can buy me a house instead!
3. paying interest is also throwing money away
4. I can rent and live in a neighborhood I actually like and still save up for an even bigger downpayment.
5. vancouver is due for a crash. the gov’t keeps making provisions to keep that from happening.
6. we have lowered our standards so much in the past 10 years, why the sudden change? I think its hype and psychological, both of which can be turned in an instant
I’m thinking a majority of people my age just do what our parents say. Think about it, 2 sets of baby boomer parents, both paid off their mortgages, kids out of university and now left with excess cash. Why not buy if affordability is not in question? Not to mention the pressures from family and relatives. We’re both canadian born chinese if people are wondering.
RE is like religion. Each side is blowing smoke and not making sense according to the other party. If it wasn’t for this blog, there would only be one party.
There’s now talk of her mom buying, and we rent from her. At the end of the day, it’s one more blind sale to boast. You’d be surprised how many ppl out there read the Sun and Province for RE advice, think renting is garbage, believes the olympics (now HST) is driving RE prices and RE goes up forever.
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other ted Says:
October 5th, 2009 at 5:32 pm
hang in there real scenario. You seem like you have a good head on your shoulder. Worst case you end up like me, moving. Once you define success on your own terms, not others which tends to be you must own in vancouver. You will find happiness and success. Save money and you will be able to buy a house for that money. Hell in coquitlam its sick to think that a house will cost that much.
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patriotz Says:
October 5th, 2009 at 5:34 pm
@skiff:
That’s what it means. Of course you have to use some accepted metric for inflation and we use CPI to calculate real prices (=nominal price/CPI). That’s just a convention but you have to use some convention.
Note also that price/rent and price/income are quotients of two nominals, and are thus real without having to use any metric of inflation. So arguments about the accuracy of CPI do not apply to them.
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read on Says:
October 5th, 2009 at 5:40 pm
real scenario – in my experience, it is best to do the opposite of whatever your mother-in-law suggests…. after all, she never wanted her daughter to marry you in the first place, and you went against that, didn’t you…
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DaBull Says:
October 5th, 2009 at 5:51 pm
Don’t you poeple know it’s almost impossible to get new development land in the Fraser Valley Region due to Agricultural Land Reserve (ALR). Here is the ALR in Fraser Valley.
http://www.alc.gov.bc.ca/Commi....._Coast.htm
Rents have nothing to do with Vancouver prices, supply and demand does, there is a lack of land due to ALR restrictions on development.
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patriotz Says:
October 5th, 2009 at 6:03 pm
@DaBull:
What?
Please take a look at the first post on this thread. Rents are indicative of actual supply of and demand for shelter.
You are right that rents currently have nothing to do with Vancouver prices. The latter are being driven by speculation rather than fundamentals. That situation is called a “bubble”.
Next canard, please.
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Girlbear Says:
October 5th, 2009 at 6:07 pm
@mk-kids: Do you mind me asking what neighbourhood that is?
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stagnate Says:
October 5th, 2009 at 6:29 pm
patriotz says:
Please take a look at the first post on this thread. Rents are indicative of actual supply of and demand for shelter.
sounds good but of course it’s not quite that simple. the land under the dwelling is increasing in value due to the supply and demand dynamic. if a shift occurs from ownership capital to rental shelter rents would rise a proportionate amount. basically demand and supply dynamics dictate the portion of moneys allocated to shelter, only macroeconomic shocks will change the overall percentage.
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patriotz Says:
October 5th, 2009 at 6:51 pm
@stagnate:
The value of the land under the dwelling is determined by what someone is willing to pay to live on it. In other words, the market rent. Note I said value, not market price – the latter can be inflated by speculation (Florida swampland, etc.).
All asset values depend on earnings. It really is that simple.
Complete nonsense. If an owner-occupier sells and becomes a renter, that adds one more renter to the demand side, and one more rental dwelling to the supply side (because one more house is now rented out).
The only thing that matters is total dwellings versus total households.
Oh BTW, if you would like some evidence, rents are falling in many US markets which are also seeing a decline in the ownership rate (which the whole US is seeing):
Mish – Rents falling everywhere
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skiff Says:
October 5th, 2009 at 6:52 pm
Thanks for the answer to my “real rents” question, patriotz. I have one more: do you know if the statscan data for rents (I assume it’s average or median) is somehow normalized for quality, as with a benchmark? I have no idea if the average person’s living space has gotten smaller or larger since the 70’s, but that would seem a necessary thing to control for.
Thanks for all your thorough analysis.
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Thomas Says:
October 5th, 2009 at 6:54 pm
Rental asking prices are hilarious right now.
There are units in ten year old buildings going for a $500 differences in price.
The last two weeks I checked out one bedrooms in coal harbour and the west end.
I started at the Venus because there were so many listings in that building (single building)
There is a 2 bedroom for $1,725 and then people asking $1350 for studios! Meanwhile walk across the street and the Residences on Georgia (two buildings) has a similar story and then move along to the Palisades (two buildings) and again lots of rentals with a huge variance in price. Go slightly east to the lesser “Lions” (two buildings) buildings and asking rents go from $1200-$1500 for the same layout and then walk across the street to the “Pointe”(single building) which is the worst of the bunch with outdated appliances and odd floorplans and you can get a sub penthouse for $1380 or a crappy mid level unit asking $1650.
I noticed the same thing with Avila the other day and bayshore gardens goes from $1.5 to $3.5 per sq ft asking rent but didn’t actually view them because I’m only looking at one bedrooms and one bedrooms with den.
Despite the disparity the same listings are still up there meaning they aren’t renting even at the lowest price.
The other funny thing is some landlords honestly believe they have a superior suite because they’ve either cleaned the carpets or put in low end laminate floors and therefore should charge the entire flooring cost every month?
How else can you explain a $1700 one bedroom in a shitty building like the Pointe?
The Landlord didn’t know what to say when I told him that a 30th floor unit with a balcony, view and better condition was available for $1,380.
Next week I’ll check the slightly older yaletown buildings like mondrian, 501, pinnacle,miro, yaletown park and see what they are asking and then compare them to the newer buildings such as Elan, Donovan etc.
These landlords were gouging as much as possible the last time I was looking so I won’t feel bad offering $1100 on units were the asking rent is $1600. Especially the Mondrian (two buildings) the asking rents are higher in that old building than they are in the new ones.
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stagnate Says:
October 5th, 2009 at 7:04 pm
patriotz says:
Complete nonsense. If an owner-occupier sells and becomes a renter, that adds one more renter to the demand side, and one more rental dwelling to the supply side (because one more house is now rented out).
The only thing that matters is total dwellings versus total households.
Oh BTW, if you would like some evidence, rents are falling in many US markets which are also seeing a decline in the ownership rate (which the whole US is seeing):
sounds good again, but of course if breaks down locally because there are not enough dwellings for the households here. you could make the argument for suburban condos but with that type of dwelling the ownership cost isn’t far out of line with it’s earning power.
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hmm Says:
October 5th, 2009 at 9:24 pm
a side note:
If they wanted to get rid of some of the gangs, why not allow people to grow one pot bush for their own use (no..I dont..I dont like inhaling smoke, I appreciate the delicate structures of my lungs)
But, if they did that.. then the grow operations would go bust, a good chunk of the “economy” would disappear, which would affect the housing market. Why buy a house for a grow op, if nobody will buy the pot if they can grown their own.
Maybe it is in the real estate markets interest to make sure that it is illegal for people to grow their own pot, the grow ops would go bust. And is the real estate connected to the “news papers” and the government?
What regular working person can afford to buy a house these days? But those that make a living off grow ops can…
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Anonymous Says:
October 5th, 2009 at 10:31 pm
Greed greed greed
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....49721.html
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Anonymous Says:
October 5th, 2009 at 10:34 pm
Greed greed greed pt2
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....47636.html
It’s gonna be interesting in the coming months as more and more of these people come out of the wood works to ‘cash’ in the the games.
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kansai_92 Says:
October 5th, 2009 at 10:50 pm
@Thomas:
If you’re a person with good credit and a decent job, there’s no reason why you can’t score a 1BR+DEN in a newer building in Yaletown/Coal Harbour for $1500 or less.
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Skye Says:
October 5th, 2009 at 11:08 pm
Rents all over the place? That’s what you get with amateur (accidental) landlords… that feeling they’re going to get is the invisible hand of the market smacking them in the face.
Is it just me or do a lot of these “luxury” listings look really, really gaudy? Guess money can’t buy good taste.
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Skye Says:
October 5th, 2009 at 11:12 pm
Latest on Calculated Risk….
http://www.calculatedriskblog......-high.html
The U.S. apartment vacancy rate rose to 7.8 percent in the third quarter, its highest since 1986, … according to Reis.
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read on Says:
October 5th, 2009 at 11:35 pm
39 X Anonymous Says:
October 5th, 2009 at 10:31 pm
Greed greed greed
http://vancouver.en.craigslist…..49721.html
————–
14k? WTF? That’s a student hovel from the furnishings. Hell, I’ll rent my place in the West end of 1/4 of that if anyone is stupid enoough to pay that.
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Realist Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 1:01 am
I think a lot of the bears haven’t lived in other cities or just don’t understand them. They just see numbers. DaBull has it partially right. It is all about location. People WANT to live in Vancouver and will pay a premium for it.
You can’t compare prices/rents and population growth to a city like Calgary, because they have so much available land. The NW is sprawled almost all the way up to Airdrie, the south is stretching past 200th Ave, and the west has gone way past Springbank. All with room to spare. People want to live near Vancouver’s downtown core are willing to pay for the lifestyle.
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patriotz Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 2:39 am
@Realist:
For the umpteenth time, what people are willing to pay to live somewhere is the market rent.
The market rent is determined by actual supply of and demand for shelter. The fact is that market rents in Vancouver differ little from Calgary or Toronto. That means the cities all have about the same balance of actual supply and demand.
I will also note that real rents in Calgary have actually increased over this decade from the 80’s and 90’s, opposite to Vancouver and completely counter to your argument, because (surprise) population and incomes have increased substantially:
http://cuer.sauder.ubc.ca/cma/.....algary.pdf
Not only is there no shortage of shelter near downtown Vancouver, there are many empty units as other posters have pointed out.
What someone is willing to pay to own the property, whether they live there or rent it out, is something else entirely. That is an investment decision. If someone is willing to pay much more than the rental value of a property he is expecting to make it up from future capital gains, by selling it to someone who is willing to pay an even greater premium over rental value (the greater fool). That’s called a speculative bubble.
Got that, boys and girls?
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Rent-o-rama Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 7:07 am
There are two main Vancouver myths that work together to drive up real estate prices. The first is the “everyone wants to live here” myth (which is the topic of this thread) and the second is the “low vacancy rates” myth which is based on statistics that doesn’t take into account all of the condos for rent.
I am currently looking to move to a new condo and there are a ton of places to choose from. Even the notoriously overpriced listings on craigslist have started to put into their ads “open to negotiations”.
It is a renters market, bargain hard.
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Digi Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 7:25 am
@Realist: People WANT to live in Vancouver and will pay a premium for it.
incredibly, you seem to have missed the entire point of the thread you commented on. According to the stats population growth is low, so how can you say everyone wants to live here?
And the value of living in Vancouver is very clearly reflected in rents. Not “magicpony wish-upon-a-star” craigslist rents, but the actual rents people are paying.
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nonymouse Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 7:50 am
I know it’s basically been said before and this may be just calling the sky blue but.
The demand for investment real-estate isn’t the same as the demand for housing.
“I buy three my husband buy three”
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realpaul Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 8:14 am
The interest rate raise that was heard around the world reverberated through the financial markets this AM like a cannon shot. Auzzie led the way with a quarter point increase. The $CDN leapt over ine full cent. Ottawa must be shitting puppies right about now. The US is sunk in a tar pit of unproductive, non consuming unemployment, zero profit growth and the Canadian government is sitting on trillions of tons of what the world wants and additional multi billions of barrels of oil. Trying to keep the $CDN down below the plunging USD is proving to be near impossible. With exploding inflation in the non CPI consumer discretionary and durables the CDN government is either going to have to raise rates or let the consumer fall ever further in debt as prices rise.
http://www.vancouversun.com/bu.....story.html
This means that the ‘optimism’ as reported in the Vanc Scum article will quickly be dashed. Isn’t it funny how the market will dash the hopes of the majority of the consumers at the precise moment when optimum optimism is achieved. Bwahahahahahahahahaha, wait for it………higher mortgage rates are coming down the pipe in the bond market. This is going to make the BOC’s decision to price the Savings Bond at .04% look like a bunch of chimps picking numbered banana skins. Incompetant fools that they are proving themselves to be.
The CDN dollar will increase globally and if the CDN government wants to contain real inflation in Canada they must raise rates alomg side the G20 countries which have started the campaign today. This can only cause the $CDN to increase even more. Unions take note, job losses are permanent.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....le1313354/
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Hovering Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 8:33 am
nice one realpaul
It appears the Aussie GOv has handled itself quite nicely of late. Of course, they are only a first world nation of 30 odd million living near global giants. Nothing like us..
this link argues the rate hike wasn’t entirely unexpected:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8291968.stm
and “The Fed will start raising its benchmark rate in the third quarter of 2010, as will the European Central Bank, according to analysts’ forecasts compiled by Bloomberg. The central banks of U.K. and Norway will start this year, the data show.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/.....lGxBV0m5t4
I’m not sure the Canadian gov can keep rates low until summer of 2010. Who will buy our Gov’s bonds?
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realpaul Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 8:37 am
Canada Gov is caught like a deer in the headlights on this one. More on this story,
“First, the macro view: For several years now the predictive linguistics have been warning of ‘dollar death’ and how that would bring with it a massive impact on US lifestyles. in 2007, the reports actually went so far as to talk about dollar death in November. As it turns out, which November may have been wrong, because this is a fledgling science – this looking into the future stuff – and since there are no textbooks, we have had to infer rules about how language shift happens.
One of the rules which has evidenced itself though – and it is THE rule to be aware of this fall – goes to the idea that the further ahead we can see something, the BIGGER its emotional impact will be.
Does the ‘dollar death’ therefore occur this year? Well…maybe.
Our first ‘dot’ to trip over this morning is the report that the “Gulf States in Secret Talks to Drop Dollar” surfaced. The original story was published in the UK Independent under the headline “The demise of the dollar: In a graphic illustration of the new world order, Arab states have launched secret moves with China, Russia and France to stop using the US currency for oil trading.”
Now, as you might expect, that set up a screaming crapstorm in the overnight markets, and that in turn has spurred denial after denial about the dollar dumping scheme. For example, the “Saudi Bank Governor denies talks to replace Dollar” and “Gulf region to stay with dollar for oil: UAE central bank source.”
(Ain’t forensic journalism fun?)
Although we haven’t heard too much from the Obama administration yet (it’s early in the storyline here) we can already infer some things from the fact that president Obama is not meeting with the Dalai Lama – a move which is bound to please the Chinese at a time when the Chinese could play a key role in deciding how much the US dollar should figure in future oil pricing. On the other hand, congress is meeting with him (Dalai Lama) – so the US is trying to play both sides in this. On the one hand trying to maintain the charade of a balanced pro-freedom stance on Tibet, while at the same time sucking up to the Chinese who are the up and coming 900-pound gorilla in oil consumption as their country’s standard of living comes up; a euphemism for eats more energy.
Despite the denials out of the Middle East this morning that something’s afoot, the gold and silver markets had a healthy bounce since any devaluation of the US dollar (a kind of foregone conclusion long term, especially since the G-20 meeting last week in How’s your Sound Cannon City? put the writing on the wall for all to see.
Another consequence of the weakening of the US dollar’s relative prestige in world finance would be an increase (dollar denominated) in domestic commodity prices. You can see the mechanics of this already coming to play as Australia has triggered the first round of interest rate hikes (to 3.25%) because governments now have to pay a little more to keep people buying stodgy bonds when go-go commodities could really pop in dollar terms.
Don’t be surprised to see the Australian lead in interest rates followed – and perhaps that means the next Fed meeting might be forced to start increasing rates which in my view will come at a time when rates need to be kept low because if they are not, then banks that borrow on-the-cheap from the Fed will raise their rates to commercial borrowers and that would about nail (as in coffin) the second leg down in the Second Depression getting underway.”
http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm
Reality and macro economic trends are a bitch eh?
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Supraboy Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 8:49 am
Stop crying all you bears. The real estate prices won’t drop just because a few of you are crying. Get with the program and just load up properties.
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cashisking Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 8:54 am
Real story today is in the Independant … Have a read about the U.S. buck
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mk-kids Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 8:59 am
hey girlbear, the suites were in the melville in coal harbour.
we are currently awaiting the end of our lease here at the most overpriced building in vancouver: the rise! these guys are offereing 2 months free rent to new renters but have not reduced their ridiculous asking prices. the building is poorly managed, the suite sizes are measured via “commercial” standards where they divide up the common area by the number of suites and attribute that space to each unit so our 900 Sq foot place when measured is actually only 740 square feet. its a freakin’ ghost town here with almost all of the original tenants gone at the end of their overpriced year and not too many greater fools scrambling to get in. we knew this place was overpriced last year when we took it but wow how the market has changed!!! whereas i’d say it was maybe $100-$200 p/mo overpriced then based on 900 sq feet & market rates, now its about $700 p/mo overpriced based on its actual 740 square feet and the changing market.
oh, and the finishings and appliances here are total crap. we can’t run our dishwasher and watch tv at the same time because the dishwasher is stupid loud. i think a big wake up call is around the corner for grosvenor…
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deathspiral Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 9:03 am
The BOC policy of setting bond rates so low is their way of saying to the world
” Stay away from the Canadian Dollar”
They have been trashing the cash dollar domestically at the same time. The recent flushing of the $CDN in the foriegn dollar short has been ineffective. The .40% bond offering is just another childish ploy, the debt ghouls around the world aren’t buying the lie and are bidding the dollar up to play an arbitrage spread straddle between the USD dump and the CDN rise, amongst othe commodity currencies. Effectivly, because the move by the BOC is so transparent, its free money for the Forex traders to the detriment of the Canadian taxpayer. Not selling the Canadian Bonds means deficits and additional tax increases for us all. The BOC has entered into what could be called a “Faustian’ bargain. They are gutting the citizen in return for political favours from a few constiuencies in Southern Ontario. We are all suffering from the political map which concentrates power in the hands of a few to the detriment of the many. This is also the consequence of having a minority government.
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realpaul Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 9:19 am
On US apartment vacancies
“”Vacancy could be worse if landlords didn’t realize fairly early on that this end game was not going to end well and lowered rents really quickly,” he said.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/200.....mentmarket
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rubberduckie Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 9:20 am
@mk-kids
I was interested in The Rise last year, but they were being snooty about not allowing cats. They’ve been forced to be more accommodating… I see now in their Craigslist postings that they are allowing some pets. They can’t lower their prices on vacant units, or they’ll face pressure to lower prices on all the existing rented ones. Giving away free months is a sneaky trick. Maybe one could work it? Lease for a year and then move a few doors down annually. It would be a pain in the a** to move, but it’s a good excuse for a deep cleaning and decluttering!
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realpaul Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 9:22 am
@cashisking:
#54 CIK, read the UrbanSurvival link as well , its slightly more articulated.
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shikko Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 9:41 am
@Realist said:
I think a lot of the
bearsbulls haven’t lived in other citiesorand just don’t understand them.Fixed that for you. What other cities have you lived in? People who have never been a bill-paying adult in another North American city have no idea how screwed up Vancouver actually is.
They just see numbers. DaBull has it partially right. It is all about location. People WANT to live in Vancouver and will pay a premium for it.
Please support this statement or admit you’re blowing smoke. How many people do you know that don’t live in Vancouver? How many of them are actively pursuing relocation here?
You can’t compare prices/rents and population growth to a city like Calgary, because they have so much available land. The NW is sprawled almost all the way up to Airdrie, the south is stretching past 200th Ave, and the west has gone way past Springbank. All with room to spare. People want to live near Vancouver’s downtown core are willing to pay for the lifestyle.
You’re right; Calgary is a bad comparison. How about Seattle or Portland? Portland is of 15% from peak; Seatle is off 22%. What does Vancouver have that Seattle or Portland don’t? Industry? Popular sports teams? Access to outdoors? Culture? What is it? What is it that will keep us safe from a 22% drop in home prices?
Please just admit that you’ve bought the hype and are trying to justify your belief.
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Hovering Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 9:41 am
several people have commented that craigslist has overpriced rental listings
any other recommendations?
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patriotz Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 9:49 am
@nonymouse:
Precisely, just as the demand for amazon.com stock was not the same as the demand for books, the demand for 360 Networks stock was not the same at the demand for long distance calls, the demand for pets.com stock was not the same as the demand for pet food, the demand for oil company stocks is not the same as the demand for oil, and so on.
The bulls simply don’t get that demand to purchase capital (i.e. stocks or RE) and demand for its output (e.g shelter, which is the use of RE), are entirely different things.
Or to put it simply, they don’t understand how the economy works, period.
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No Longer Looking Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 9:53 am
“any other recommendations?”
These days, I’d go to my target area and wander around it. It seems like just about any apartment building has vacancies and they are often only announced on a sign out front.
Also, you will notice some REITs have multiple buildings. Find out the names of the REITs on those same signs and go to their websites.
example:
http://www.bwalk.com/rental/Va.....asp?lng=EN
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patriotz Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 10:02 am
@shikko:
And keep in mind that Seattle was way cheaper at peak than Vancouver at peak (or Vancouver today, for that matter). Portland was cheaper still.
Seattle median SFH at market top in summer 2007 was $501,000
65 X “The Pressures from Family and Relatives: Why Not Buy?” « Vancouver Real Estate Anecdote Archive Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 10:04 am
[...] 6 October 2009 · Leave a Comment The details of an intra-family debate regarding Vancouver RE is laid out by real scenario at vancouvercondo.info on October 5th, 2009 at 5:07 pm – [...]
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No Longer Looking Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 10:43 am
“The possibility exists that the Bank of Canada may have to break its conditional pledge on interest rates should the housing market continue its red-hot performance, economists at Toronto-Dominion Bank said Tuesday.
“The Bank of Canada will likely be watching developments in Canadian real estate quite closely,” say economists Craig Alexander and Grant Bishop. “If surging existing home sales do not cool, the bank may be inclined to respond.”
http://www.theprovince.com/bus.....story.html
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realpaul Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 10:58 am
@No Longer Looking:
Thats all just toooooooo funny. Hahahahahaaaa , the BOC ‘pledge” oh man, thats rich. From the frying pan into the fire. Was the BOC pledge a header on the HELOCS and mortgage docs that the Government was pushing just weeks ago? Talk about a suckers rally !
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realpaul Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 11:04 am
@No Longer Looking:
From the Province article,
“However, they acknowledge there is a “material risk” that real estate could continue its red-hot pace.
Banks have been able to extend real estate loans, at lower costs than otherwise, due in part to a federal scheme that aims to buy up to $125-billion in existing mortgages from banks’ balance sheets. The scheme was meant to ensure there was enough long-term funding for businesses and households amid the deep recession.
Even though demand for that financing has diminished, Ottawa announced last week it would extend the financing available until March 2010 – prompting some analysts to warn that such a move carried a small risk toward further fuelling the housing market.”
Really, free money has had an effect on otherwise unqualified buyers? Really really? Yahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha, Christ I think I’ve shit myself laughing !!!!
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Thomas Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 11:17 am
$1700 at the pointe!
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....54745.html
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Thomas Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 11:27 am
MK-Kids
The Melville had units available for $1550 ,that were also low floor duds, when it was new.
check the vancouver sun for better prices.
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Drachen Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 12:44 pm
Just to add to the “undocumented criminals” debate.
The RCMP says that organized crime is moving AWAY from BC and Vancouver because they’re finding other places where it’s easier to run illegal hydroponics set-ups. The law allowing BC Hydro to report excessive energy usage is credited for this change and apparently Montreal is now the fastest growing Pot producer in Canada. Nevertheless there is no corresponding jump in real estate prices in Montreal.
For those who point to the recent violence and say “you call that LESS organized crime!” remember it is typical when drug or other illegal business is declining for local gangs to become more violent in an attempt to keep their income from shrinking.
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Anonymous Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 12:47 pm
http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....le1313830/
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VanBanker Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 12:49 pm
Realist Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 1:01 am
“I think a lot of the bears haven’t lived in other cities or just don’t understand them. They just see numbers. DaBull has it partially right. It is all about location. People WANT to live in Vancouver and will pay a premium for it.”
Haha, realist, you’ve got it backwards… i’m a bear BECAUSE i’ve lived in alot of other cities so I know how over-rated and over-priced Vancouver is.
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Anonymous Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 12:49 pm
Above link: TD explores the potential that the dead cat bounce we are experiencing in real estate might accelerate interest rate increases in Canada. Australia got a jump on this by raising their rates this week.
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realpaul Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 1:21 pm
If you think you’re living in a democracy, think again. I listened to a news bit on CKNW at 1:00 PM which described how the Olympic Security Arm of the RCMP ( the ISR) has been harrassing peoples ex wives, neighbours, employers, childrens teachers etc of anyone even remotely saying bad things about the Olympic Fiasco.
Hey Pig Nation !!!! I’m over here, bastards. So much for Canadian values eh?
The Aspers of ‘Global fame’ are going broke and stand to lose their entire holdings. Oh Boo hoo.
Gold closing at over $1030 US today broke a long established technical resistance point. It has the potential to hit the next ‘line in the sand’ at $1650. Let ‘er rip, I say. The lies need to be washed out of the system, sonner than later.
Interesting that only hours after I started reporting the interest rate news the TD apologists for the BOC have come out with a backpeddling campaign and now say the the ‘pledge to hold rates down until 2010′ is being rethought. Sure glad I didn’t listen to those bozo’s.
And on a sad note the RCMP is still fighting tooth and nail to ‘take back’ what they said on the stand at the Braidwood enquiry. Why can’t these people man up and get themselves straight. Why not just apologise?
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patriotzed Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 1:22 pm
@Anonymous:
From the comments to the linked article:
And I’ll remind you again – people in BC are a lot more indebted than Canadians as a whole.
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realpaul Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 1:29 pm
Oh and PS, the Atheletes Village bonanza has ballooned to an ‘official’ 1.2 Billion dollars and it ain’t even close to complete. The city says they hope to break even when the lasy 900 suites get sold at above market value. If the leakers in the condo market were built under a normal construction regime.
What kind of shit and deficiencies are people going to find after this place was slapped together with absolutley NO inspection. Not as if that did the leaky buildings any good but at least there were some inspections. How much care do you think is going into the Olympiv Village site? Not much I ‘m assuming.
I’ll bet the disclaimer and the warranaty will be so long and full of legal weasels that it will take a Public Inquiry to flesh out the real meaning of any documents coming out of the city when the sales docs are ponied up.
Word to the wise CAVEAT ( run for the fucking hills) EMPTOR !!!!!!!!!!
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read on Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 1:35 pm
“The city says they hope to break even when the lasy 900 suites get sold at above market value.”
—
Err, the price they get sold at – be it high or low – IS market value, no? More retarded thinking / writing from the press.
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NO - LYMPICS Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 1:50 pm
#40 Anonymous
re Olympic rentals:
The COV announced a few weeks back that they were going to check advertisements for anyone trying a short term rental aka the Olympics. It is apparently against the bylaws to rent on such a short term basis and will require a special license.
In addition, Richmond has informed approx. 30 existing bed and breakfast that they need to do a re-zoning before allowed to continue…and given bureaucracy they won’t get one beforte the Olympics….seems like a dirty stunt given many of them have been in business for years.
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NO - LYMPICS Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 1:55 pm
75 X realpaul Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 1:21 pm
If you think you’re living in a democracy, think again. I listened to a news bit on CKNW at 1:00 PM which described how the Olympic Security Arm of the RCMP ( the ISR) has been harrassing peoples ex wives, neighbours, employers, childrens teachers etc of anyone even remotely saying bad things about the Olympic Fiasco
================
Realpaul: …..Could you explain this a a bit more….are you saying RCMP is hassling any/all associates of Olympic naysayers? How are they doing it ?
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NO - LYMPICS Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 2:01 pm
Canadian media giant Canwest enters bankruptcy protection after restructuring its debt
http://blog.taragana.com/index.....-its-debt/
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NO - LYMPICS Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 2:19 pm
Olympic Village:
My time flies…it has to be handed over to VANOC at the end of this month….in less than 4 weeks.
I’ll bet there is a lot of Overtime being paid or else penalties will be incurred…….and as realpaul implied….”haste makes waste” and a shitty end product which will be sold into a tanking market.
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No Longer Looking Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 2:34 pm
Canada enters the Great Manic Depression. We are performing very strongly as we defy gravity.
http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/.....soars.html
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NO - LYMPICS Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 2:37 pm
Vancouver’s Olympic Village $131M over budget: Report
By Miro Cernetig, Vancouver SunOctober 6, 2009 1:27 PM
http://www.vancouversun.com/bu.....story.html
QUOTE:
There seems to be a degree of consensus around the cost to complete,” says the report by KPMG, which was released Tuesday after months of delays at city hall. “Unfortunately, less clear is the timing and quantum of revenues that will ultimately be generated from the sale of Millennium Water.”
The business model underlying the city’s real estate project is to have the developer, Millennium, build the units and then sell off the condo units after the Games, when Olympic athletes leave. But the steep decline in the real estate market has threatened to slow the rapid sale of the condos.
That means some units will not go to the market as quickly as anticipated, creating carrying costs for the already stressed developer. Both the city and the developer need prices to be above construction and loan costs to turn a profit.
The auditors offered no assurance that will happen.
“This (real estate prices) will likely have the largest potential unknown impact on the city’s financial exposure in this matter and while currently available estimates might suggest at this time a relatively neutral outcome for the city, the current state of the real estate market makes forecasting the city’s financial exposure with an degree of precision extremely difficult.”
=================
COV already announced a $62 million shortfall in revenue(a lot of that due to drop in permits….
Now its another $130 Million in cost overruns in its P3 ” Olympic Village ” project,which will come onto market and further exacerbate the problems for the RE market. I can’t see COV holding onto these, the carrying costs will be to great,…this will end up like the Fast Ferries..firesale them and COV taxpayers will have to eat the loss.
,
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Anonymous Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 2:46 pm
Australia has just raised their interest rates – which means that NZ won’t be far behind, and presumably the rest of the world will follow suit eventually.
The thing that I’m really worried about in Vancouver is the combination of BC hysteria (a combination of RE and Olympic congratulatory hype) followed by the flatlining of interest rates to an already trigger happy buying market. The amount of people I know personally who’ve recently jumped into the market right now to take advantage of the interest rates is insane.
Now I’m no genius, but if you’ve just created an unsustainable borrowing marathon on top of a market that is clearly overpriced. The ramifications down the line may be severe. Once interest rates kick in to ensure inflation doesn’t become a problem, houses are going to be defaulting left right and centre – combined with the Olympic aftermath and a phycological seachange, the way down could have the gravity to pull BC into a micro recession for years to come.
While I’m on the subject, I have nothing against the Olympics, yes, I do think the money would have possibly benefited the healthcare system or the education sector, but
I know these things are generally regarded as boring and not as impressive as a brand new road to Whistler – but anyway I hope who ever’s going has a good time. But please don’t listen to the bollocks that’s been touted around, like ‘The world is watching’ – no the world won’t be watching. The US, Canada, and Sweden will be watching – the rest of the world watches the real olympics, the one in summer where you have people running around in circles, and throwing spears across a field. The winter olympics which is usually shown at !!pm , where highlights generally focus on people falling of on the downhill skiing.)
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Limey Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 2:47 pm
Australia has just raised their interest rates – which means that NZ won’t be far behind, and presumably the rest of the world will follow suit eventually.
The thing that I’m really worried about in Vancouver is the combination of BC hysteria (a combination of RE and Olympic congratulatory hype) followed by the flatlining of interest rates to an already trigger happy buying market. The amount of people I know personally who’ve recently jumped into the market right now to take advantage of the interest rates is insane.
Now I’m no genius, but if you’ve just created an unsustainable borrowing marathon on top of a market that is clearly overpriced. The ramifications down the line may be severe. Once interest rates kick in to ensure inflation doesn’t become a problem, houses are going to be defaulting left right and centre – combined with the Olympic aftermath and a phycological seachange, the way down could have the gravity to pull BC into a micro recession for years to come.
While I’m on the subject, I have nothing against the Olympics, yes, I do think the money would have possibly benefited the healthcare system or the education sector, but
I know these things are generally regarded as boring and not as impressive as a brand new road to Whistler – but anyway I hope who ever’s going has a good time. But please don’t listen to the bollocks that’s been touted around, like ‘The world is watching’ – no the world won’t be watching. The US, Canada, and Sweden will be watching – the rest of the world watches the real olympics, the one in summer where you have people running around in circles, and throwing spears across a field. The winter olympics which is usually shown at !!pm , where highlights generally focus on people falling of on the downhill skiing.)
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Limey Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 2:49 pm
Bollocks – I’ve just posted that twice. Sorry about that chaps.
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NO - LYMPICS Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 3:09 pm
B.C.’s recovery so feeble it might as well be dead: Analyst
http://www.theprovince.com/bus.....story.html
B.C. faces an economic recovery so tepid it will leave the province’s two-year performance looking dead flat, a prominent economist says.
The provincial economy will likely grow by 2.4 per cent next year — the same amount by which it contracts this year, Bank of Montreal economist Doug Porter said yesterday.
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NO - LYMPICS Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 3:22 pm
Wasn’t it only a matter of time before someone broke ranks and raised interest rates ? Seems like the house of cards is falling as we speak.
Re Olympics:
It appears that , in the Weekend Sun, even the IOC is getting concerned over the bid process, and how Olympic bidders tend to tie or piggyback a number of other initiatives(ie infrastructure) to the bids. This tends to leave host cities with huge deficits, higher taxes and declining economies.
In BC, its pretty obvious the bid backers were those with a private vested interst and nothing to do with the phoney idealism the Olympic movement brings. In other words, the VANOC bid catalyzed, if not created, an unsustainable RE market that will have consequences for every BC citizen. Or, if we hadn’t have won the bid, the negative impact would have been much less .
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NO - LYMPICS Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 3:36 pm
Langford buys $7-million property for $350,000
Bear Mountain owner’s refusal to pay three years of taxes resulted in property being sold at auction to municipality
http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....le1304879/
=========================
This came from HouseHuntVictoria
” What a joke the Times Colonist has become. After weeks of being scooped by the G&M on the Bear Mountain story, the TC get’s it in the kiester again”:
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realpaul Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 3:44 pm
@NO – LYMPICS:
I heard on CKNW that the RCMP – Olympic Thugs were going door to door gathering ‘information’ on anyone who was known to be questioning the Olympics. What makes the list I don’t know. You know the drill, they send over some RCM Pervert to lean against the door frame and insinuate harm and menace.
My neighbours are even nastier sons of bitches (professional people for the most part originally coming from countries where the fascists/pig men were even worse than our own dictator-murderer apprentices) and would most enjoy tearing the asshole out of an inquiring amateur thug, not because they like me but because most of my neighbours are hard bitten Canadians with no fear of authority , nothing to lose and lawyers up the ying yang.
I would imagine the RCMP are running the intimidation scam the same way that ICBC ‘investigators’ do. By making a victim think that they may have something to worry about and sending in ’suggestions’ of harm/intimidation that may cause some people with complacent/tentative existences into the closet.
Stalin did the same thing. His thugs would noisily take an anonymous resident out of an apartment block in the middle of the night and ‘question’ the neighbours the following day. people lived in fear and the pigs got their way.
Oh Canada, we’ll rue the day we let the pigs take our freedom.
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realpaul Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 3:49 pm
@Anonymous:
#85 Well said.
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Hot Air Bloweth... Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 3:59 pm
You have to see the irony in ranting against municipal police and the RCMP with such venom, all the while living beside neighbours that are “nastier sons of bitches” who “would most enjoy tearing the asshole out of an inquiring amateur thug.”
Nice neighbours – maybe you would benefit from some of the law and order the police can provide rather than ranting against them all the time. Sounds like your neighbours might need to be cracked down on if they are are “hard bitten Canadians with no fear of authority.”
Too funny…
You certainly lead a *cough* interesting life….
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Thomas Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 4:21 pm
Here’s another case of taking a $1250-1300 unit in a C building and asking $1700!
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....73007.html
I’m going to go view it and then ask why the professional management companies, like easyrent, usually ask uner $1,300 for the same 536 sq ft unit!
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No Longer Looking Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 4:48 pm
@Hot Air Bloweth…: I’m going to keep this brief (off-topic): I agree with realpaul on this one. The authorities seem to have confused our local hippies with Al Qaeda. It is right to be very worried when legitimate political dissent is attacked by the Powers That Be.
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realpaul Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 4:49 pm
@Hot Air Bloweth…:
Your comprehension skills are at odds with the context. My ‘neighbours’ have no fear of the police, they are extremly intelligent and powerful people in their own right and would question the authority of anyone who came around asking questions for some bogus Olympic security ruse.
You put some numbskull RCMP agent from bumfuck Saskatchewan up against an engineer from Iran and the persian will tear the cop TWO new assholes. The persians know all about the misplaced power and abuse a police force can wield and what is happening in Canada doesn’t frighten them it reminds them of the tactics used by their own secret police and it just pisses them off to no end. Don’t get me started on how a successful business person from China would react to this thuggery.
I would love to see the ‘crack down’ on one of my little lady neighbours who owns a super market chain. Get the tazers out.
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Boombust Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 5:01 pm
“Get the tazers out.
It’s “taSers”, by the way, numbskull.
Someone should use it on YOU.
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Boombust Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 5:12 pm
Oh, and one other thing, realpaul, for such an important and astute “businessman” (or whatever) you certainly have a lot of time on your hands, judging by the number of posts you have made thoughout the day.
Does your boss know?
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realpaul Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 5:18 pm
@Hot Air Bloweth…:
you have poor reading comprehension skills. My neighbours are successful and powerful people who have no fear of the police. I have a neighbour from Iran who lived under teh Shaws secret police and knows all about the misplaced power and evil that be generated by an unchecked gang of thugs.
I have a neighbour who owns a grocery chain who grew up under the communists in China. these tactics by the RCMP don’t frighten these people, they piss them off. theres the differance pally.
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Hot Air Bloweth... Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 5:22 pm
“The persians know all about the misplaced power and abuse a police force can wield and what is happening in Canada doesn’t frighten them it reminds them of the tactics used by their own secret police and it just pisses them off to no end.”
Are those the same persians that fled in 1979 and came to Canada out of FEAR because of those security tactics
Lol.
Maybe we will see another mass exodus of 30,000 persians from West/North Vancouver once this Olympic “fascist, pig, thug shake down” occurs. Lol.
Wait a second, that might just solve our high housing market prices if 30,000 new units come on the market.
The reason they are not afraid by the way, is because they know that we live in one of the strongest democracies, where established civil liberties are entrenched to the point of infringing upon the state’s ability to maintain law and order. The risk of a lawsuit to our fine forces is more of a threat than one of your neighbour’s “tearing a new asshole” for an officer or constable.
It is easy to lack fear when you know that we operate in a system where criminals have almost the same rights as victims, and in a society that is extremely litigious.
And the inevitable retort – “Tell that to the Polish guy that got tasered! ” “Our democracy sucks bollocks” [insert any rant from butterflies to the colour of light posts here]
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realpaul Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 5:22 pm
@Boombust:
I’ve been self employed for over two decades my little flower. My work self is engaged only when I’m offered something interesting. If you get any more anxious regarding my ability to spend my free time blogging ( some days like today its weather related)your head will explode.
BTW I posted an edited version when the first one didn’t take. Solly all.
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Boombust Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 5:23 pm
realpaul,
“…teh Shaws secret police”
I think you mean “the Shah’s…”
(That would have been the Savak, by the way)
Well educated too, I see! Bravo for you!
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Boombust Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 5:26 pm
“I’ve been self employed for over two decades…” rp
Basket weaving would barely cover the rent for that basement suite of yours, wouldn’t it?
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Boombust Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 5:28 pm
realpaul,
Face it, chum(p)…you have been exposed for the phoney that you are.
So sad.
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Hot Air Bloweth... Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 5:29 pm
“these tactics by the RCMP don’t frighten these people, they piss them off. theres the differance pally.”
And what are all your big, bad neighbours going to do when they do get “pissed off?” Bribe them like they did in China? Or flee their country when the ruling regime gets a little too intrusive like they did in Iran? Or are they going to revert to the “bad ass” Canadian tactic of “suing the police force or maybe starting a petition? Lol.
You cannot have it either way. Your bad ass neighbours either revert to tried and true methods from their home countries that are illegal in Canada; emigrate somewhere else; or do the panzy Canadian thing and threaten a lawsuit? Those are their choices when they get “pissed” from the “fascist, thug, pig” Olympic shakedown. lol
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realpaul Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 5:30 pm
@Hot Air Bloweth…:
100 , actually , they came to Canada when the Ayatollahs guys started muredering citizens in the streets like the RCMP are doing now. Are you suggesting we vet the refugees to your way of thinking before we allow them sanctuary in Canada Adolf?
Canada has become more statistically dangerous than Afghanistan with more citizens shot by the RCMP in CDN cities and towns last month than CDN soldiers in Afghanistan.
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realpaul Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 5:35 pm
@Hot Air Bloweth…:
All this madness coming from a petulant jerk off who belittles the murder of Robert Djikanski? Even the judge said the death was caused by ‘ a premeditated attack’. You and your buddies in serge should be ashamed of yourselves. Of course as we all know psychos and and sociopaths feel nothing for their victims.
#102 BB are you still so mad at me that your down to attacking my keyboard skills. do you think I’m trying to impress YOU with typing? Bwahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha. Thats toooo funny.
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Boombust Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 5:36 pm
“Canada has become more statistically dangerous than Afghanistan with more citizens shot by the RCMP in CDN cities and towns last month than CDN soldiers in Afghanistan.” -realpaul
Yep. Not only an A-hole, but a delusional sicko.
Bye now.
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realpaul Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 5:41 pm
@Boombust:
#103 funny enough I did learn to weave a basket when I was in Bali not too long ago, so there.
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Hot Air Bloweth... Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 5:43 pm
108
Have to agree with you BB on all fronts. It just goes to show you how a little knowledge, and literacy in this case, can be a dangerous thing.
This guy could produce a venomous attack on little kittens. You just have to give your head a shake, and feel sorry for the guy. But being a “sociopath” apparently prevents me from doing that
lol
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realpaul Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 9:19 pm
@Hot Air Bloweth…:
What a crok of shite. The RCMP are not kittens any more than Willie Picton was a boy scout. The fact is that our venerable police force HAS killed more citizens in the past 30 days than Canadian soldiers killed in Afghanistan in the same time frame. Thats just a fact douchebag, live with it.
The Judge at the Braidwood Inquiry has stated that Robert Djikanski was killed outside the law and outside any procedural doctrine resented IN COURT by the RCMP, live with the facts douchebag.
The RCMP is beating newspaper delivery men and then denying it ever took place. Shooting people in the back of the head while in custody and denying it ever took place even against the testimopny of active police professionals that the case as presented by the RCMP lawyers and administration simply could not have happened in the manner they testified to. This list of aggregious RCMP behaviour would fill hundreds of pages of this blog and not even begin to detail what has already been reported in the public media.
The RCMP have been caught continually lying in court and continue to shows no respect for the Canadian justice system. read the newspapers douchebag. This is not secret stuff here. The RCMP is out of control and people reputable persons and organizations from coast to coast to coast are calling for an immediate overhaul and restriction of the power of the police to restrict them from any more cover ups.
The Government of Poland is well within its rights when it demands that the murder of Robert Djikanski result in criminal proceedings. Robert Djikanski and all canadians desrve justice, as do the people of Poland. Millington and Robinson should be sent off in chains to face justice at an international court in Europe in the same way that any criminals would when the justice system in their own country breaks down. There is ample precedent for this and I am sure that the Polish government will press their rights under the treaty agreements and international legal standards to see that justice isn’t swept under the rug by a bunch of RCMP thugs who think they are above the law. Canada hasn’t a leg to stand on as we have supported the extradition of killers from this countery and other extrajurisdiction many times in the past.
These are just facts douchebag if you don’t like the truth well too bad…….douchebag.
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Hot Air Bloweth Says:
October 6th, 2009 at 10:45 pm
RP
Right on cue for your delusional rants. Lol.
Yes, lets put the RCMP officers on trial in the Hague because they are clearly on par with Serbian and Rwanda genocide participants.
You remind me of the lone crazy citizen at a council meeting who ever councillor knows because of his incessant and predictable rants.
That citizen is the venerable expert on all matters, and he always has something to complain about. And yet he enjoys the very amenities provided by the government, and the broader freedoms supported by those that maintain law and order. That is his right of course, but he is still an irritant, much like your rants.
Judging by the “scores,” looks like others recognize you for what and who you are
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Realist Says:
October 7th, 2009 at 2:33 pm
@shikko: You’re right; Calgary is a bad comparison. How about Seattle or Portland? Portland is of 15% from peak; Seatle is off 22%. What does Vancouver have that Seattle or Portland don’t? Industry? Popular sports teams? Access to outdoors? Culture? What is it? What is it that will keep us safe from a 22% drop in home prices?
They are in the United States, the differences are obvious. Try a search for subprime.
Please support this statement or admit you’re blowing smoke. How many people do you know that don’t live in Vancouver? How many of them are actively pursuing relocation here?
I have just about as much evidence as the people who count dark windows. How many people do you know are actively moving to Calgary or Toronto? And how many have moved here? The common thing you hear in Alberta is “Why are you moving this way? People usually go West”
@Digi: incredibly, you seem to have missed the entire point of the thread you commented on. According to the stats population growth is low, so how can you say everyone wants to live here?
Many of you are missing the point that people want to live in DOWNTOWN Vancouver. Check the population growth for that area. Now I’ll wait for the next poster to predictably comment on how downtown Portland, Seattle and Calgary are just as good… right.
Another problem with Calgary comparisons is the supply of rental units is inferior to Vancouver’s. Let’s just say they have more Hollyburn style rentals than new condos on the market. Quick, someone find me stats to dispute this.
All the bears here are just angry they missed the boat, and are hoping posting on these boards will influence price declines so they can jump back in and join the speculators.
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Guess Again Says:
October 7th, 2009 at 3:32 pm
“are hoping posting on these boards will influence price declines so they can jump back in and join the speculators.”
Lol. You admit the market is based on speculation. And we all know what happens when the speculators dry up or turn tail. They are the first ones in and first ones out, so the rest get holding the bag.
And if you think this is little blog can influence prices, and compete against the marketing effects of the RE industry, central banks, media, and the government, you live in your own little world.
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shikko Says:
October 8th, 2009 at 10:20 am
@Realist says:@shikko: (snip) …What is it? What is it that will keep us safe from a 22% drop in home prices?
They are in the United States, the differences are obvious.
If they’re obvious, state them! Otherwise you’re doing what’s called “argument by hand-waving”, which is not so much an argument as it is admitting you don’t know what you’re talking about.
Try a search for subprime.
Please define what you mean by subprime in this instance. Is it the low down-payment loans, or the Alt-As, the option ARMs or something else? While we’re on the topic, ARMs can be considered subprime; can you tell me the difference between a 3 year VRM in Canada and a 5/1 ARM in the States that makes the VRM “better” than the ARM? Do you really think Canada (and BC specifically) doesn’t have a subprime mortage problem?
Do you think that non-recourse mortgages are what caused the bubble? If so, Calgary should be worse than Vancouver in terms of price/wage or price/rent ratios, and it isn’t.
See, when you go with “it’s obvious” people can come to all sorts of odd conclusions about what you think is obvious. I am not a mind-reader; please state what you see as obvious so I don’t have to guess at what you’re thinking.
I’ve given you several points of comparison on which both Seattle and Portland are equal or better than Vancouver, and yet the markets there are way down, with few signs of stopping. So, have at it; make your argument. Failing that, be an adult and admit you’re just making stuff up and believe things with absolutely no basis in reality (like much of the rest of this city).
I have just about as much evidence as the people who count dark windows.
You mean you have data that could be independently generated and corroborated? Do tell!
How many people do you know are actively moving to Calgary or Toronto?
None. Why is the Toronto market bubbling up again?
And how many have moved here?
Only one family I know that is currently in Vancouver is not originally from the lower mainland, and all of my friends in Vancouver are originally from BC, if not the lower mainland specifically.
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amusedbyitall Says:
November 26th, 2009 at 2:23 pm
I’ve been hearing that Vancouver is due for a correction since the last “BIG” correction.
Enjoy paying rent…