Comments on: Why expect a significant correction?

By: Latest condo buying news – Buying First Condo in South Jersey

Latest condo buying news – Buying First Condo in South Jersey — Tue, 16 Nov 2010 03:37:41 +0000

[...] Rental yield and house price correction probabilities – Vancouver … [...]

Current score: 0 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

By: logic

logic — Sat, 31 Oct 2009 06:43:46 +0000

jennifer i would move then sounds like the wise decision for you and your family

Current score: 0 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

By: Jennifer

Jennifer — Sat, 31 Oct 2009 05:46:44 +0000

You all over overlooking the kindergarten math of the whole situation. Median house prices are overall "acceptable" when they're about 5X the median annual family income for the area. House price/20 years/12 months = 1/3 average monthly family income = happy people in a house they can afford. Cheaper than that = extra happy people. More expensive = sad people in a house they're struggling to pay for. That the median house price right now is almost double that means that, unless you owned a house before prices went up, don't plan on buying one now. It also means that we, as a family who makes more than the median family income for Vancouver, would have to go all the way to Abbotsford before we could afford a 2 bedroom condo, let alone an actual house. It ALSO means we're looking at a lovely 30-acre oceanfront property with a 4-bedroom house and a retail shop in PEI for $150k, since hubby's job isn't tied to where he lives.

Current score: 0 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

By: eideardmil

eideardmil — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 21:22:24 +0000

http://collaborationproject.or.....lemancable

Current score: 0 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

By: philbertab

philbertab — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 21:21:35 +0000

1990 http://collaborationproject.or.....ndellrutla

Current score: 0 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

By: louisacowe

louisacowe — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 21:14:25 +0000

http://collaborationproject.or.....llurabaldw

Current score: 0 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

By: zakarylawh

zakarylawh — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 21:09:07 +0000

http://www.wikipatterns.com/display/~merciaeaste

Current score: 0 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

By: daylecaden

daylecaden — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 20:50:27 +0000

variability earth http://collaborationproject.or.....leseydaigl

Current score: 0 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

By: branddunca

branddunca — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 20:24:32 +0000

events serious http://collaborationproject.or.....cyannpelle

Current score: 0 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

By: wichammmcc

wichammmcc — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 20:18:36 +0000

http://arnoldpalmer.usgamuseum.....;as=111503

Current score: 0 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

By: crockettbe

crockettbe — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 20:05:33 +0000

half concerns http://nmsua.edu/forums/profile.php?id=1987

Current score: 0 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

By: depressionwatch

depressionwatch — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 16:39:47 +0000

That ‘ol jobless recovery thing is pesky in’t it?

“In the week ending Oct. 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 521,000, a decrease of 33,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 554,000. The 4-week moving average was 539,750, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week’s revised average of 548,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 4.5 percent for the week ending Sept. 26, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week’s unrevised rate of 4.6 percent.”

Too bad the numbers aren’t published for Canada. The fools may take pause in their insanity.

Just like another issue that come up. Didn’t the government publish just a few months ago that the Swine (Mexican) Flu was a non issue and that it wasn’t going to effect Canadians. Yep, keep those hotels as full as possible boys. People are dying like flies now and the vaccine thats being distributed in the UK, Eurozone and US won’t be coming to Canada any time soon. Woops

http://www.theprovince.com/hea.....story.html

Its a good thing the foolish sheeple have such short memories. Otherwise you’d think they’d get a bit angry after all the lies lies lies and more manipulation and lies. Who bets that the politicians get the fuck out of town while the rest of us die like pigs in the street?

Current score: 1 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

By: realpaul

realpaul — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 16:08:37 +0000

The ‘cocaine high’ of free money seems to be wearing a bit thin. Is it because the real economy won’t support the bubble without more ‘candy’?

http://www.vancouversun.com/bu.....story.html

Current score: 1 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

By: kooga

kooga — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 08:59:44 +0000

I wouldn't care about the right or wrong reasons why ppl buy into the market... i wouldn't mind them buying, building more and more RE since rents reflect only on overall people's income. It's just pointless telling them what "fundamental" is. I will be socking away my savings into high yield investments and when I retire, I will move to other place on the planet where it's warmer and sunnier. IMO, don't get attached to RE...

Current score: 13 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

By: Arwen

Arwen — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 06:49:11 +0000

Yep. I think the West End rental market has been wounded by Rennie's lifestyle boosterism - in support of (among other projects) Shangri-La, he really talked up the idea of the international pied-a-terre. Maybe that'll happen - but I'd lay my money on the vacancy rate climbing a bit more, and then rents sinking back down. All that inventory coming online.

Current score: 4 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

By: read on

read on — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 05:15:07 +0000

Lots of vacancies down here in the West End, where this time last year there were very few.

Current score: 4 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

By: Arwen

Arwen — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 04:07:20 +0000

@read on: True that. Plus, the rate of change is amazing: in purpose built rental buildings it was recently a sliver of a percent.

Current score: 4 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

By: read on

read on — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 03:54:42 +0000

the 1.5%, as has been repeatedly stated, is a stat for multiple occupancy rental buildings in Van - not a stat for the rental market as a whole. One would think that landlords would do their research and be aware of this. But obviously not.

Current score: 6 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

By: Arwen

Arwen — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 03:06:55 +0000

(Although 3 months in I would have dropped ...)

Current score: 4 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

By: Arwen

Arwen — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 03:06:00 +0000

@read on: Well, you don't drop the price substantially after a single month's vacancy in a market of 1.5% vacancies. She offered based on the same comps crabman's using - and she'd bought the current assumptions about the Downtown core. (Live the Lifestyle!) Anyway she found a renter or she sold. It's not on Craigslist anymore... Interestingly, someone used a link to her ad as an example of inexpensive living space out there - there was a link to her on this blog. I'll see if I can find it.

Current score: 4 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

By: read on

read on — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 01:53:35 +0000

"For example, there was a single *house* on Comox, with a gorgeous garden, 2 bedrooms and 2 floors, hardwood, etc., going for $2500 that sat open for months. I’d walk by, toured the place, it’s bloody idyllic: and the owner was tearing her hair trying to rent it. That’s a top tier place, but there was so much competition… " -------- Stupid bint should have lowever her asking price then.

Current score: -6 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

By: Arwen

Arwen — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 01:32:22 +0000

@crabman: CHMC data on only the West End, as of last year, showed the current *paid* rents, as opposed to advertised rents, between 1-1.75 (lower for larger suites, as per usual.) That's because it's a market in flux, up and then down and then up again, and if I were betting from the sidelines, I'd be gambling at a table too rich for my blood. I certainly would caution people about the numbers there! A lot of speculation: mainly because of Good Old Rennie selling his builds and the "downtown lifestyle". Only it hadn't really been what he was selling - the West End was one of the cities *poor* neighbourhoods, and hell, I went to the raves in the buildings where yuppies sip Starbucks today. So it's a new population, one that Rennie called, and a hell of a lot of suites to fill, all of which are small. Which is my point: yes - on the top tier, 2-3 even is not unusual. But there's a lot of people competing for that top tier and the discount buildings are gentrifying, heeding Rennie's call. Of course, Coal Harbour/Yaletown are different markets with different pricing structures (and different amenities) - but they are almost entirely new and top tier. It may stay what was sold, Manhattan 2, but I'm not sure it's going to fully transition to a stable version of Rennie's vision. For example, there was a single *house* on Comox, with a gorgeous garden, 2 bedrooms and 2 floors, hardwood, etc., going for $2500 that sat open for months. I'd walk by, toured the place, it's bloody idyllic: and the owner was tearing her hair trying to rent it. That's a top tier place, but there was so much competition...

Current score: 6 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

By: stagnate

stagnate — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 01:19:59 +0000

yup, the current cap rate locally is about 2-4%. nothing to get excited about that's for sure. nonetheless i know peoples with 100,000 at ing direct at 1%. yields will rise if government sticks with aggressive reflation. for those that haven't noticed, the central bank has put the boots to the bond market pretty good the last number of months, could be some foreshadowing. history shows societies only have a fully functional bond market when it suits the majority. a 1970's senario has a higher probability than a deflationary debt event.

Current score: 0 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

By: Arwen

Arwen — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 00:58:57 +0000

@GG: Having just been through the records on the management of a downtown complex, I would also make sure to calculate in the cost of repainting/steam cleaning, the cost of fixing the place when trashed, the cost of bedbug/vermin control, the cost of insurance, and the cost of legal fees. The mortgage was definitely the largest slice of the operating budget, (on a new reno, so newish mortgage) - but it was probably only, what, 70%?

Current score: 9 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

By: Arwen

Arwen — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 00:49:21 +0000

@Anonymous: I agree with you that availability of cheap money and psychology are what maintains the bubble for now. I think what the fundamentals point to is a sustainable market. Different people may have different takes on what is sustainable - some, it's that in which an investor in residential real estate can make some money, for others, it's when buying is not an incredible risk to your own portfolio. But whatever *event* breaks this wave, it *has* to break - because some day the free money will run out. We've borrowed a lot of tomorrows in order to keep this going today.

Current score: 6 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)