CMHC predicts 2010 rebound and building boom

This should be an interesting prediction to watch. The CMHC has put on their happy hats and made this forecast:

“In 2010, a pickup in home sales, a stronger domestic economy with income growth and low mortgage rates will lead to an increase in new home construction. Greater Vancouver tends to lead the other markets and that’s what we’re now seeing. In 2010, it will spread to the rest of the province. This will prompt builders to start more homes to meet a growing need for housing.”

Now remember, these are the guys handing out money to buyers whom banks wouldn’t otherwise lend to without a higher risk premium.  They have nearly doubled their mortgage insurance cap over the last two years.   When Fanny May and Freddy Mac tried the ‘free loans for everyone program’ down south it didn’t turn out so well, but in Canada we do things differently.  Will the CMHC be able to keep pumping enough tax-payer backed credit into the real estate market to make this forecast come true or will the whole house-of-cards come tumbling down in crash part deux?

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mukesh
10 years ago

Vegas Casino Online where you will find all the action and excitement of Las Vegas. Over 80 online casino games and great progressive gambling rooms, las vegas clubs.

space889
space889
10 years ago

@No Longer Looking: Hi, I know it's a myth and I constantly tell my wife and friends who are thinking about buying a condo. So that was meant to be tongue in cheek. However many people I know do think that way, especially from mainland China as apparently the condo there (or the equivalent of) don't actually have as many enforceable rules as here. As my wife puts it, in China if you don't like how your neighbor lives? Move because it's your problem!

I find that there is a serious lack of education about condo living and what your obligations are and what happens if things go wrong. It's really unfortunate.

logic
logic
10 years ago

Err, did that math. Worth very little to me.

Worth more was:

[1] not having to worry about potential negative equity

[2] being free to relocate if i wish

[3] Being able to stick my stuff in storage and go travelling for 6 months whenever I feel like it.

etc.

rainyday5000
rainyday5000
10 years ago

Cashisking, isn't your wife a realtor? Considering your bearish outlook, it must make for some interesting dinner table conversation. I agree that there are good realtors worth their fees, but they sure are hard to find.

Boombust
Boombust
10 years ago

Boombust,

(comment 84)

"Would it be possible for you to post some or all of your letter? Maybe too if it is publicly posted that will help get a reply. Interesting that you haven’t received one yet … it’s been a couple of weeks, right?"

Sorry chum. Didn't keep it.

ave
ave
10 years ago

…then ask yourself what value you would place on not being able to be evicted for "landlord renovations", and being able to upgrade the place as you see fit. Then subtract what you think the value is for being able to bail on it with a month's notice. Then add a premium for not having to read this blog and obsess over housing for the rest of your life.

oneangryslav2
oneangryslav2
10 years ago

@logic: Exactly. Everyone should do themselves a favour and complete the following activity. Look up at a typical East Vancouver bungalow on the MLS. Then, go to your favourite mortgage calculator and calculate how much your monthly mortage will be at various interest rates. Then, go onto the Craigslist rentals section and look for houses/apartments/condos that are renting for the various mortgage paymenst you calculatd in the prior step.

Now, for your homework question, ask yourself, "is the quality of shelter that I would get by renting better/worse/about the same as that East Van bungalow." I think most of us know the answer to that question.

logic
logic
10 years ago

"If the rates goes up in 5 years and I can’t afford it then I will sell and at worst break-even."

———

If rates go up, people can afford to borrow less. So they will have less to spend on a property. Hence you will get lower offers than they would have made if rates were low. So, do that math on that one.

logic
logic
10 years ago

"Plus it will be newer than the 30 years old rental apartment I’m in right now. A"

———————

Err, with the number of new condos (granite a SS appliances and all) on offer at the moment, odds are your "rented" place will be newer than their "owned" place.

No Longer Looking
No Longer Looking
10 years ago

@space889: "Also renting you have to obey other people’s rules but not owning!"

That's another myth. You're always answering to someone. Whether its the condo board, the municipality, the taxman etc.

space889
space889
10 years ago

@gvrdpropertyowner: What I have heard from friends, friends of my wife, etc is basically who cares if the interest rates rise? If I can afford the mortgage payments now then it's better to own now than renting because you "own" the place and can do what you feel like. Plus it will be newer than the 30 years old rental apartment I'm in right now. Also renting you have to obey other people's rules but not owning! If the rates goes up in 5 years and I can't afford it then I will sell and at worst break-even. This is the type of thinking from accountants, engineers, marketing, finance, etc, etc, etc. They figure there will always be someone who can afford to buy it and will buy it so they suffer no loss (ie. house sale proceeds at least… Read more »

cik
cik
10 years ago

Sorry I thought you would figure it out

Private schools = higher fees for better service … you don't have to believe it … you don't have to pay for it … if I don't feel I'm getting my money's worth I DON'T have to send them ie pay for it

Do you honestly believe they are equal? WOW

If I owned a property could I sell by myself or are all for sale by owner transactions done between people who don't have realtors. Furthermore there is a whole section in the Chapters near me that is devoted to selling your house by yourself – fuckin book whores?!? Why are they allowed to charge money if it's not possible.

realpaul
realpaul
10 years ago

Woops, slow down RP , my bad, no censorship of comments today, my machinery must have blinked for a minute. Solly all.

realpaul
realpaul
10 years ago

#98 I seem to be getting censored again. My responses to your string are hitting too close to the bone.

But I couldn't stop posting this from garths comments

Here’s another herd mentality for ya.

Regular healthy people trying to jump the queue lining up for H1N1 vaccines.

How many people die every year from heart disease?

Yet I see no line ups at the gym.

realpaul
realpaul
10 years ago

#96, N911, I saw a Labour Council announcement flash by earlier today that suggested unemployment numbers tommorrow will be UGLY. Wait for the fun.

realpaul
realpaul
10 years ago

#94 CIK, I don't get the private school connection or charity assoc in any of that as it relates to the incompetance of real whores generally? Are you saying that you feel that you deserve or are more worthy of a better quality real whore than the rest of us because of your personal foibles? Fact is that the Real Whore Board itself disagrees with you. It is their assertion that the qualifications of all real whores are homogeneous and that they are all as competant as another. So….it sort of blows the lid off the 'you get what you pay for ' argument. i have to disagree with you strongly on the point of 'voting with your wallet' assertion. Voting is synonymous with freedom of choice. The Whore Council has not allowed free competition into the market. Only then… Read more »

cashisking
cashisking
10 years ago

gork #95

Well then your not dealing with a competent person

… Look all I'm saying is do your homework … when I bought my first place 15 years ago I didn't have a realtor and found the place myself. I negotiated the fee and took into the consideration that the realtor was probably biased in favour of the vendor … I was o.k. with that but you get what you pay for.

I've worked very hard to get where I am and I charge a lot of money for my services. If you don't like it find someone else. Even though I am in NOT a realtor people shouldn't be telling them what there service is worth with anything other than THEIR wallet.

Supraboy
Supraboy
10 years ago

@Disbelief:

You think I'm worried about my job going south? My properties are rented out and the suckers are paying off the mortgages for me. If you took economics 101, you'd learn a few tricks or two about how to build assets.

Nero911
Nero911
10 years ago

Employment Quality in Canada Detiorating – worst in BC (jobs quality index down a whopping 8%)

http://www.canadianbusiness.com/markets/cnw/artic

See the PDF report linked to in the article, courtesy CIBCWM

gork
gork
10 years ago

#93 and in some profession 99% are rotten. Agree with RP on #89's "if you want to save money and roll the dice". That's realtor fear mongering at it's best. Without realtor you can still have a building inspector, lawyer, ect. 89, what's the true value you get from the realtor, how does he/she make up for their money? I frequently get newsletters from a few realtors i contacted in the past >2years back when trying to get more info on a property listed. First, it's annoying to get this spam, second, isn't it funny that they all think (at any given time) I should buy right now, great opportunities ect ect… However this reminds me of the worst part, when i called them waaay back for more info on properties they were simply not in a position to provide… Read more »

cashisking
cashisking
10 years ago

All I was saying is you pay for what you get … you don't have to pay and you don't have to get.

Does it bother you that my kids go to private school? Does it bother you I have my suits tailored? I also have ski boots custom fit for my kids and my daughter's saddle was custom made?

On the other hand … I volunteer for several boards/charities … I spent three days at Whistler helping my landlord install/build at my rental so I could get a break on the rent. I've coached or managed umpteen (word?) teams.

Cut the personal crap it demeans your argument.

logic
logic
10 years ago

what 91 said.

There are good and bad eggs in every profession.

realpaul
realpaul
10 years ago

#89 CIK, I gotta go with Anon #91 on this call. A whore is a whore, it doesn't matter where they buy their makeup. I don't have a 'Pretty Woman' complex when it comes to money. Theres nothing colder than a whores heart, which is exactly why yours keeps calling you. Its not because your a valued friend its because you represent a buck. Give it a shake, there you see, is it a bit clearer? These parasites are commissioned salespersons. They get payed nothing to coddle you or act in your best interests. You are being groomed for a shearing. Using the term 'professional' and 'real estate agent' in the same sentence is just funny. Lets keep proper credentials unsullied by the wannabe's and the malcontents. Trusting builders hmmmmmmmmmmmm. The work is entirely subbed out these days. No one… Read more »

Anonymous
Anonymous
10 years ago

@ cashisking #89

Not everyone is a chef. Some simply serve burgers.

Your average barista at Starbucks knows nothing about espresso – they merely push buttons.

My best friend's dad was a shoe salesman on the Island long time ago and because he knew everything about shoes he managed to support a family on his salary. Have you been to a shoe store lately? Have you asked staff ANY questions, not just about shoes?

I could go on…. but you get my point.

Thare are WAY fewer realtors than Realwhores these days and you can bet on it.

cashisking
cashisking
10 years ago

ps Realpaul … I usually do enjoy your rants but I think your offside on this one.

pps I'm a bear … I sold my house two years ago and have been renting ever since … my realtor calls me even though she/he knows I won't buy to tell me about houses I should take a look at … I also bug him/her when I see something I'm curious about … the bulders and tradespeople she/he has a relationship with have worked on friends and families places and are worth their weight in gold.

ppps calling them real whores is actually off side