CMHC predicts 2010 rebound and building boom
This should be an interesting prediction to watch. The CMHC has put on their happy hats and made this forecast:
“In 2010, a pickup in home sales, a stronger domestic economy with income growth and low mortgage rates will lead to an increase in new home construction. Greater Vancouver tends to lead the other markets and that’s what we’re now seeing. In 2010, it will spread to the rest of the province. This will prompt builders to start more homes to meet a growing need for housing.”
Now remember, these are the guys handing out money to buyers whom banks wouldn’t otherwise lend to without a higher risk premium. They have nearly doubled their mortgage insurance cap over the last two years. When Fanny May and Freddy Mac tried the ‘free loans for everyone program’ down south it didn’t turn out so well, but in Canada we do things differently. Will the CMHC be able to keep pumping enough tax-payer backed credit into the real estate market to make this forecast come true or will the whole house-of-cards come tumbling down in crash part deux?
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cashisking Says:
November 2nd, 2009 at 6:47 pm
I’m not paying my taxes when this goes South!
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Disbelief Says:
November 2nd, 2009 at 6:53 pm
A dose of optimism courtesy of the always brilliant CMHC. Can’t really blame them their financial outlook depends on the masses believing it.
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rentah Says:
November 2nd, 2009 at 7:02 pm
Is part of the CMHC mandate to make public forecasts about the housing markets?
If so, why?
Their actual mandate is to facilitate ‘affordable’ housing for Canadians.
But they seem to be uncertain of their goals.
For instance, from the same article:
“In terms of the resale market, conditions have improved in the second half of 2009 and they’ll continue to be strong in 2010,” Carol Frketich, CMHC’s regional economist for B.C., said in an interview.
Improved? Strong?
The CMHC sounds like the Realtors Association.
If they were talking with affordability in mind, they’d describe the current situation as catastrophic.
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Anonymous Says:
November 2nd, 2009 at 7:09 pm
I read somewhere that the CMHC is ensuring the second and third mortgages in this crazy expansion. Is this true? Because if it is, they are handing away gambling money. You just know the flippers will be all over this, making the prediction of rising prices come true…until we peak out again. So much for CMHC’s mandate of “improving affordability.”
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perma_tripple_bull+ Says:
November 2nd, 2009 at 7:17 pm
It’s clear now that the only way for housing in Vancouver to go is UP. If you missed out last winter you are the greatest fool of all. Jump on the boat now before the olympics or you’ll be priced out forever. The rich asians are at the door.
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ReadyToPop Says:
November 2nd, 2009 at 7:29 pm
They are giving themselves a bit of wriggle room with those numbers…a possible low of 20,200 “if economic circumstances change”
Coming from a peak of 39,195 starts in 2007…that’s almost 50% fewer.
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asp Says:
November 2nd, 2009 at 7:40 pm
Fannie and Freddie are not to blame.
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Anonymous Says:
November 2nd, 2009 at 7:42 pm
How exactly do we get lower rates than now?
Huh?
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Drachen Says:
November 2nd, 2009 at 8:06 pm
The bureaucrats at the CMHC know which hand is feeding them. There’s a reason why Garth Turner was kicked out of cabinet and then the party, Harper will not allow leaks, partly because the things he’s been doing with the CMHC and other government bodies are illegal and immoral.
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Lord Huggington Says:
November 2nd, 2009 at 8:10 pm
I’ve been trying to think of better things for what CMHC could stand for and the best I’ve come up with is the Continuous Money Handouts Club. Anyone have other suggestions to bring to the table?
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gvrdpropertyowner Says:
November 2nd, 2009 at 8:12 pm
The only things propelling this market are debt and leverage.
In spite of the great housing rebound the rest of the economy is still soft— so it looks like CMHC`s great cash give away program failed to stimulate the rest of the economy.
I wonder if Mark Carney will be able to fulfill his promise to keep money free for at least another year in spite of other countries starting to raise their interest rate— think down under. Recent real estate buyers in Vancouver better hope so.
Then again, I wonder if Harper, Flaherty, and Carney thought the world economy would be so week that other counties would not start raising their rates yet.
How are all these people with $700,000 mortgages going to feel if interest rates hit 5 or 6 percent— or— do they all think that interest rates will stay this low for all 35 years of their mortgage.
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ReadyToPop Says:
November 2nd, 2009 at 8:21 pm
Check out page 9…the “BC Employment and Unemployment Rate by Region and Metropolitan Area” document over at BCStats. Look at the unemployment trend for 2009 in the Vancouver and Abbotsford areas.
http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/pubs/lfs/lfsdata.pdf
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.bdk Says:
November 2nd, 2009 at 8:35 pm
http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....le1343682/
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.bdk Says:
November 2nd, 2009 at 8:38 pm
http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....beinvestor
Uh Oh, so let me get this straight. Losing money every month for 35 years won’t make it easier to buy a house later?
Real estate never go down?
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anonymous Says:
November 2nd, 2009 at 8:57 pm
http://www.globeinvestor.com/s.....2/GIStory/
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Anonymous Says:
November 2nd, 2009 at 9:04 pm
@10
Canadian Made Hubris Club.
Cant Make Homes Cheaper.
Creating More Hooked Canadians.
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Anonymous Says:
November 2nd, 2009 at 9:24 pm
Anyone think that CMHC is envolved with the obama deception
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krazy kanuk Says:
November 2nd, 2009 at 9:41 pm
Y’know I can’t believe how little foresight (intelligence?) our government has.
This is a little off-topic, but I remember talking to my good buddy in Calgary 6 to 8 months ago. He works for Nova Chemical as a research chemist. So anyhow, they hired this jackA$$ of a CEO. He looted the company (left with some 9 figure golden parachute), saddled the company with debt, then orchestrated the sell-off of the company to the Arabs (can’t remember the fund/company). This is a company that owns and operates several chemical plants. The sale price was less than the replacement cost of ONE plant.
So I’m left thinking. Why is our government promoting home ownership (at any cost with free money), effectively creating jobs that involve selling each other houses?
I’m probably an idealist, but what I would have liked to see was:
1) a low interest government loan to Nova (~1%) to pay back current creditors in exchange for a 51% share.
2) fire the CEO and all upper management, and instill some proper management.
I would think these are the kinds of industry we should be supporting. It would diversify the economy, provides a bit of a counterweight to natural gas prices (low gas price = low feedstock cost), takes a raw material and processes it into something “value added”, and provides high level technical and research jobs.
It makes me think the Arabs are way smarter than us, investing for their future while we are busy selling each other houses.
really, really makes me mad. Why can’t our stimulus be spent intelligently?
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logic Says:
November 2nd, 2009 at 10:40 pm
well, not all the arabs
dubai has basically been RE for years, until their recent crash
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other ted Says:
November 2nd, 2009 at 11:10 pm
18. krazy kanuck you hit on something more than not investing in the right industries. But you highlighted the corruption that exists in our corporations. I am tired of hearing the term private sector. It is a misnoner. None of these companies are privately owned. Yes I am a libertarian and don’t want the government telling private business’ how to run. But when these business’ are owned by shareholders who happen to be the public we need some consumer protection for these shareholders. Its a myth CEO’s answer to shareholders. They answer to their boards who are an incestuas group of individuals who sit on each others boards. The CEO mentioned if what you said was true of him, should be in Jail.
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other ted Says:
November 2nd, 2009 at 11:13 pm
Reading the CMHC article made me laugh. Actually I almost heard the same nonsense talking to me sister yesterday. She was lecturing me that I got to get in before it gets too late. I for one am tired of arguing with people about this bubble. I just said yeah I will keep an eye on it.
But seriously this article was nothing but fear mongering. Its like oh no I missed the bottom I better get in now. Real estate is going to save us and we will have perpetual growth forever. Housing will go up. This will create more jobs which will create more demand for housing and the cycle starts all over. Yup no ponzi scheme here.
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pricedoutfornow Says:
November 2nd, 2009 at 11:14 pm
@.bdk:
Finally, a realistic article about condos! I agree, those fees I hear (or see) people paying are absolutely brutal…not to mention “special assessments” that are absolutely enormous. And yet condo owners I talk to simply shrug their shoulders and say “Oh well, you have to pay it” Will they still be saying that when interest rates are up to 8% and they’re pinching pennies to pay the mortgage (and the condo has decreased in value?) I would think not…
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No Longer Looking Says:
November 2nd, 2009 at 11:52 pm
@pricedoutfornow: They will suffer in silence. Condo owners will not speak out about this because it would put their building in a bad light, thus further undermining their “investment”. The only time I’ve heard them complain is when all is lost.
BTW whatever happened to those condos on East Broadway that faced a repair bill much bigger than the building was worth? I see it still standing there with tarps everywhere. Shouldn’t it have been sold for land value by now? I think its name was Gardena Villa or something.
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Anonymous Says:
November 3rd, 2009 at 12:00 am
more on the cmhc:
http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2009.....index.html
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oneangryslav2 Says:
November 3rd, 2009 at 12:09 am
@No Longer Looking: Do you mean the developmnt just east of Nanaimo? God, what a shithole that place is. I remember when that place was built–it must be about 20 years ago now–and I drove past and within six months of its completion one could plainly see the telltale signs of shoddy construction.
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oneangryslav2 Says:
November 3rd, 2009 at 12:15 am
@other ted: Well, I’m not a libertarian economically. (I am a social libertarian, however–screw who you want, put whatever chemicals/compounds that you want in your body, as long as you’re not hurting anybody else by doing so.) But I do agree with your post. The problem with the economic system now is that we don’t have capitalism. Why not? Because there are no capitalists.
The CEOs, CFOs, etc., of most major companies these days are managers, not owners. The single most pressing issue with the current economic system is the divergence in incentives between the owners–the shareholders–and the managers. If you both own and manage your company, then you’ll never undermine your long-term health for short-term gain. If you only manage the company you’ll do whatever you can to increase the stock price in the short-term, cash out your options, and get the hell out. After all, it’s not your business that’s going to suffer as a result of your actions.
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scullboy Says:
November 3rd, 2009 at 12:41 am
.bdk:
AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! I *loved* that photo in the Globe and Mail account. It reminded me of the model home in “Arrested Development”. The place should have been named “Sudden Valley”.
I’m now 2/3 of the way through the interview process, and the hard part’s over (the technical interview). As the interviewer said “You did pretty well for a guy who just spent a year learning about sauces.” There are two other positions within that company alone that would suit my skills about 98%, and that one company has 19 high tech positions open.
Compare that with Van where if you’re a project manager, you better be in construction because otherwise you’re competing against all the guys from Nokia, Kodak, TELUS eBay and Electronic Arts who are out looking too.
I can’t wait to get out of Vancouver. It’s beautiful and all but there’s no work here. One the whole Olympic shit show is done and people figure out how badly they’ve been duped it’s going to be ugly. Even if you have a ton of money saved, it won’t change the fact that unemployment’s going to drastically affect life in this city, and not for the better.
So Drachen, post avideo of you doing the “I told you so” dance and I’ll download it from the East Coast.
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b.j. titsengolf Says:
November 3rd, 2009 at 12:59 am
yeah nutslaps! beware the CMHC rocket jugernot!
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chip Says:
November 3rd, 2009 at 6:05 am
Krugman has never seen a government program he couldn’t salivate over.
Fannie and Freddie were increasingly pushed into providing affordable housing, helping the long-term home ownership rate of 63% jump to 69% by 2007. By 2007, they were mandated by Congress, led by House Financial Services Chairman and all round economics wizard Barney Frank, to make 55% of their lending to low and middle income earners, of which 38% were to be to inner cities. They bought over a trillion dollars of subprime and alt-A loans and the US taxpayer is now on the hook for a cool $100 billion for each entity.
More generally private banks looked at the leverage held by these GSEs and decided that the federal government and Fed weren’t going to prick this bubble any time soon. They created an enormous sense of moral hazard in the midst of the boom.
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Boombust Says:
November 3rd, 2009 at 7:23 am
Well, I’m still waiting for a reply from someone “important” at the CMHC.
I DID receive a response to my e-mail to “Chairman, CMHC” last week from some lower level hack.
Said he’d forward my message on. We’ll see.
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ReductiMat Says:
November 3rd, 2009 at 7:45 am
Chip, Faux News got it wrong on the CRA front:
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2.....xperiment/
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Wreckonomics Says:
November 3rd, 2009 at 10:33 am
@Boombust: What did you write to the CMHC?
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Wreckonomics Says:
November 3rd, 2009 at 10:42 am
@Lord Huggington:
Crazy Money Housing Cheerleaders
Collapsing Markets Halt Credit
Cons Manipulate Hobbled Capitalism
Canadian Money Hole Corporation
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No Longer Looking Says:
November 3rd, 2009 at 10:52 am
@Wreckonomics: Canada’s Most Heinous Corruption
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No Longer Looking Says:
November 3rd, 2009 at 11:19 am
@oneangryslav2: Yeah, I think we are talking about the same building. Its as ugly as sin. Mind you, most buildings from that era are.
http://blog.myleakycondo.com/i.....logId=1060
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Boombust Says:
November 3rd, 2009 at 12:17 pm
“32 X Wreckonomics Says:
November 3rd, 2009 at 10:33 am
@Boombust: What did you write to the CMHC?”
I wrote about their reckless lending to people who wouldn’nt otherwise qualify for a mortgage through the bank. AND, how they are assuming all the risks.
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Drachen Says:
November 3rd, 2009 at 1:13 pm
How about:
Conservatives Must Hate Canada
Create Mega Housing Conflagration
Creatively Manipulating Honest Canadians
Crap! My House Collapsed!
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Disbelief Says:
November 3rd, 2009 at 1:48 pm
Creatively Manipulating Honest Canadians
I like this the best and it really is true. The stupid leading the blind. Creatively Manifesting Huge Collapse. Sad really.
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realpaul Says:
November 3rd, 2009 at 2:17 pm
Aussie raised rates again today for the second time in a month. Why, because they can. The rebate program has successfully shifted the burden onto the homeowner and market adjusted affordability as opposed to Canadas burden to the taxpayer with free money program and monthly paymeny schemes designed to jack prices up to meet the maximum allowable payment based on the temposray CHMC fraud.
$21000 incentives at higher rates were the safer bet instead of jacking up prices with leveraged inflato-bucks it seems. Oh those Aussies, outsmarted our best yet again.The Aussie homebuyers are relativley safe while the Canadian suckers have got hundreds of points to go before coming close to where real intrest rates will settle as is the case in OZ.
http://promoter.melbourneit.co.....amp;u=1041
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observer Says:
November 3rd, 2009 at 2:41 pm
Crisis Compels Economists To Reach for New Paradigm
http://online.wsj.com/article/.....4:r2:c0:b0
It’s hard not to think of the CMHC and our policies towards RE when reading this.
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Supraboy Says:
November 3rd, 2009 at 3:11 pm
Each time I come here, the bears are crying. The Fed printed out so much money that there’s nowhere for housing to go but up. Gold is blasting off to new highs. Better welcome hyperinflation with both arms because it’s here to stay. I’m about to get my 4th mortgage for another investment property.
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Supraboy Says:
November 3rd, 2009 at 3:12 pm
This board makes me wonder, do any of you do any work at all? Or do you just sit there and leech in an IT shop like me? Productivity is way down yet we are all getting paid to jackoff online.
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No Longer Looking Says:
November 3rd, 2009 at 3:14 pm
I just looked at all the October Stats and its really interesting how Metro Vancouver is splitting into two different markets.
The wealthy inner areas (COV, North Shore, Richmond, Burnaby, Anmore/Belcarra) are red hot. Meanwhile, its stagnant or even falling in the commuter suburbs. Coquitlam and Surrey have a lot of negative numbers, as does many areas further East.
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Drachen Says:
November 3rd, 2009 at 4:23 pm
@No Longer Looking:
That’s a typical pattern for real-estate collapses, it worked out that way in almost every metro area in the US.
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Disbelief Says:
November 3rd, 2009 at 4:34 pm
Wow stupaboy is getting paid to jackoff and getting saddled with a fourth mortgage. If that isn’t proof of the less than due dilligence the CMHC, banks I don’t know what is. When your job goes south and Your RE holdings are in the crapper remember how you came here and tried to get us going. All of us bears are sleeping well at night.
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Boombust Says:
November 3rd, 2009 at 5:32 pm
“Meanwhile, its stagnant or even falling in the commuter suburbs.”
I had to laugh when I saw a house listed at 489K 1.5 years ago.
The write-up said “…the owner will entertain offers between 489K to 499K.”
Wha? (Isn’t that the “value range pricing” gimmick they did in the US?)
It didn’t sell even after several piddly price reductions down to 439K…
Just today, this same house (in PoCo on Shaughnessy St) was listed for 409K.
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Boombust Says:
November 3rd, 2009 at 5:36 pm
“That’s a typical pattern for real-estate collapses, it worked out that way in almost every metro area in the US.” -Drachen
And, it has always worked that way in Vancouver. The “tsunami” spreads outward from Vancouver’s West Side and washes out into the nether regions.
Then, the reverse happens.
Then…it’s over.
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Anonymous Says:
November 3rd, 2009 at 5:40 pm
more from diane francis’ article. apologies if this has already been posted
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No Longer Looking Says:
November 3rd, 2009 at 6:20 pm
Anyone see Ozzie Jurock get away with a blatant lie on Global TV news? He said the BC unemployment rate was 7.4%, which is true. But then he went on to say 4% represents lowest unemployment rate possible and the entire additional 3.4% was out in the forestry towns. And the announcer just grinned and nodded. I hope this is caught in a clip.
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Chilled Says:
November 3rd, 2009 at 6:50 pm
@No Longer Looking:
#49 I became TV-less a couple of years ago, primarily due to CanCess Global. Just out of curiosity, does Ozzie Jurock remain the illiterate slob that I remember??
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Boombust Says:
November 3rd, 2009 at 7:00 pm
“And the announcer just grinned and nodded.”
Oh. That must have been Deb Hope.
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ReadyToPop Says:
November 3rd, 2009 at 7:18 pm
Wilbur Ross Sees ‘Huge’ Commercial Real Estate Crash
“All of the components of real estate value are going in the wrong direction simultaneously,” said Ross, one of nine money managers participating in a government program to remove toxic assets from bank balance sheets.
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Dave Says:
November 3rd, 2009 at 7:29 pm
@No Longer Looking:
What’s the lie? Let’s say my wife goes on mat leave and collects EI. As far as I understand, that gets counted in unemployment numbers.
That said, the unemployment rate doesn’t measure underemployment where skilled people aren’t using their full potential. Obviously, that goes up in and after a recession as well.
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nonymouse Says:
November 3rd, 2009 at 7:48 pm
On the topic of unemployment stats the number of jobs may not reflect what is going on in the employment market.
“most of the decline in employment quality was concentrated in western Canada, with British Columbia seeing the largest drop at eight per cent. ”
http://tinyurl.com/yf9zznx
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asp Says:
November 3rd, 2009 at 8:11 pm
Stats Canada actually publishes -for a fee- alternate unemployment rates:
R1 – unemployed 1 year or more
R2 – unemployed 3 months or more
R3 – comparable to the United States rate
R4 – official rate
R5 – plus discouraged searchers
R6 – plus waiting group (recall, replies, long-term future starts)
R7 – plus involuntary part-timers (in full-time equivalents)
R8 – plus discouraged searchers, waiting group, portion of involuntary part-timers
http://cansim2.statcan.gc.ca/c.....Id=2820085
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krazy kanuk Says:
November 3rd, 2009 at 9:01 pm
@other ted: I agree that the whole corporate system is corrupt. As I understand it, the the CEO operated within the law and basically “gamed the system”.
I think the whole upper management pay thing stinks. We keep hearing the “well if you don’t pay, you don’t get the top talent”. Two things really make me mad about about that statement.
First thing is, the “top talent” shares a lot of responsibility for this mess. They were supposed to be smart enough not to make stupid loans to the average joe (aka the unwashed masses). It also wasn’t just the financial cats that had a “lapse of judgement”. I work in the oil and gas sector, and when oil was touching $150 a barrel, upper management was falling over themselves expanding at any cost. “it’s different this time”, “China and India”, “$200 any day now”. I remember thinking that this was unsustainable when I was working on an oil shale project (talk about a dirty, nasty, expensive process). If this was economical something was wrong (because there’s lots of shale).
The second thing is, whatever happened to doing a job that you are good at and enjoy? I’m willing to bet that everyone on this blog has worked with peers who were mediocre or just plain bad. Do you run to your boss and say “I need a raise right now because even though George over there has the same number of years of experience as I do, I’m better than him…in fact, he’s not very good at all…I’m twice as productive, so you should pay me twice as much”? I mean, it’s understood that a nurse makes about x$’s, an engineer makes about y$’s, and so on. You do the best job you can as part of your job satisfaction. I think the CEO’s have set off a financial arms race (between themselves), and really enriched themselves at everyone elses expense. Who needs a union when you have that kind of dynamic working for you?
I think the average child is more mature. Most parents teach their kids the concept sharing and not being greedy. I think most of them would understand that even though George isn’t as good as them, he has a family to feed.
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Anonymous Says:
November 3rd, 2009 at 9:16 pm
#49 4% is commonly regarded as frictional unemployment which is the lowest level of unemployment possible in a properly functioning economy.
If it gets lower than that things have gone off the rails. Ozzy is correct on this one
http://www.investopedia.com/te.....oyment.asp
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Anonymous Says:
November 3rd, 2009 at 9:21 pm
To the point above the current unemployment rate in Vancouver is 7.2%
http://srv129.services.gc.ca/e.....period=249
A bit above the historic norm of 6.1% for Canada but not really a big deal.
http://www4.hrsdc.gc.ca/.3ndic.....jsp?iid=16
To listen to this blog you’d think that the sky was falling but Vancouver has weathered this storm really well so far.
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Anonymous Says:
November 3rd, 2009 at 9:25 pm
#58 that should say 6.1% in 2008 and average of 8.7% since 1976. So we are a bit below the historic norm just to put some actual facts on the table.
http://www.stats.gov.nl.ca/statistics/Labour/PDF/UnempRate_7608.pdf
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No Longer Looking Says:
November 3rd, 2009 at 10:05 pm
@Anonymous: Yes exactly, Ozzie was saying we have 4% unemployment in Vancouver. That’s the BS. BTW its over 8% out in the Fraser Valley. So its even higher than 7.2% if you include all of Metro Vancouver.
The point bears are making is unemployment is rising rapidly this year. And I don’t see any hope for a better year in 2010, after the Owelympics.
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Bizznitch Says:
November 3rd, 2009 at 10:12 pm
Olympic rental market swamped with homes
The Olympic dream for many in B.C.’s Lower Mainland has little to do with sporting events or who makes it to the podium. They’re hoping to rake in the gold by renting out their homes to tourists coming to the 2010 Games.
But it’s not working out that way for everyone trying to take advantage of the opportunity. It appears the Olympic rental market has slowed to a crawl.
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/briti.....owing.html
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rp Says:
November 3rd, 2009 at 10:20 pm
Create Massive Housing Collapse?
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bozo Says:
November 3rd, 2009 at 10:38 pm
These guys must know something that we don’t. A news editor is on Harper’s case and picky on the slow process of immigrants to Canada. Hurry up Steve, her once a week real estate advertisements keep a lot people prosperous.
chineseinvancouver.ca/2008/09/immigration-trend-in-reverse/comment-page-2/#comment-4909
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realpaul Says:
November 4th, 2009 at 12:18 am
Deb Hopes nodding is little more than conditioned response to blowing every advertiser that ever walked in the door. Otherwise how could a face like that ever get a job on radio, Oh ya, you have to be able to read a complete sentence without stuttering to get on radio.
Anyone with lower standards should shuffle down and make a pitch. I’m sure Tony’s got a special tube of grease ready for any actual cash proposals for time on Globular Lies.
I guess Ozzie was uncomfortable with the most recent stats that showed BC outpacing the country with new unemployed in all regions. Christ the hinterlands have been on welfare for over three years , don’t count them on the EI rolls. If anything there are more people rolling onto welfare in BC than are currently collecting EI. Still the official stats were that unemployment in BC is up MOM 8.5%. But thanks for the buzz Ozzie, your a great cheerleader. We should hire that guy from “Tell me Lies” to have a gander at the BS they pass off as ‘news’ on Global.
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betamax Says:
November 4th, 2009 at 12:59 am
#61 Bizznitch: “It appears the Olympic rental market has slowed to a crawl.”
WTH? You mean rich foreigners don’t want to rent some East Van dump for more than a hotel costs? Quell surprise!
Reminds me of Beijing’s 80% vacancy rate for rentals…won’t be any different here.
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patriotzed Says:
November 4th, 2009 at 4:17 am
@Lord Huggington:
“Conservative” Monkeys Hose Canadians.
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patriotzed Says:
November 4th, 2009 at 4:38 am
@chip:
Patently wrong. For starters, he has been opposed to the Iraq war from the start, which is the single largest US government program since… well the Vietnam War I guess.
If you’re just talking about domestic entitlement programs, he was strongly critical of Bush’s extension of precription drug benefits for Medicare, which he correctly described as a handout to Big Pharma. He was also critical of Bush’s relief program for Katrina. Actually he was critical of just about everything Bush did, which was not too surprising since Bush did just about everything wrong.
If you think he was just out to get Bush, Krugman has also criticised Obama’s medical insurance proposals for being too soft on the health insurance industry. But note that Krugman’s own views on health care would be considered to be on the right of all parties’ offical policies (including the Conservatives) in Canada.
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crabman Says:
November 4th, 2009 at 9:35 am
@Anonymous: To listen to this blog you’d think that the sky was falling but Vancouver has weathered this storm really well so far.
That’s because our housing bubble hasn’t burst yet, and we have a massive amount of olympic work being done. After the olympics, we in trouble!
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whinefest Says:
November 4th, 2009 at 11:17 am
Only in Canada could you get a whining asshole complain that he’s embarrassed about being publicly exposed over his direct involvment in the wrongful death of an innocent man. I guess when the recruiting officer told you that you are ‘brave’ it really means that you’re an asshole and they can’t find many psycho’s that are stupid enough and hollow enough to swallow that crap. Being brave means not having to pull the gun, asshole. Any asshole can stand ten feet away from a man who’s surrendered and then blast him for a buzz, that just makes you an asshole, not brave.
http://www.vancouversun.com/ne.....story.html
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other ted Says:
November 4th, 2009 at 11:22 am
patriotzed I can’t believe you are here defending Krugman. He has been wrong about everything. So anyone who opposes Bush is good. Using that measuring stick maybe we should get jeneane Garafalo’s opinion on the housing bubble.
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realpaul Says:
November 4th, 2009 at 11:51 am
Real Estate Industry MLS mafia gets ‘gouged’ for a nice sea change in consumer rights at law. Finally, the courts have decided that the secrecy and death grip tactics of the Real estate industry have been ‘anti competative’ and illegal. Real estate boards facing multi million dollar fines for forcing out competition. Local board of course, with the complacent media in tow, are reluctant to release statements but change is on the books and its about time.
http://www.vancouversun.com/bu.....story.html
I would say a decent real estate commission should be about $250. That would include the hourly rate of $50 per hour for the average time an agent puts into a file.
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oneangryslav2 Says:
November 4th, 2009 at 12:21 pm
@other ted: Okay? Were you watching Faux News as you typed this out? Name two things that Krugman has been “wrong about.” Have you read any of Krugman’s academic stuff? He is very much a centrist (even right-of-centre) economically. The right in the US made Krugman a bogeyman because he was the first of the members of the traditional corporate media in the US to understand and write about the folly of the man-child President.
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adsup Says:
November 4th, 2009 at 12:31 pm
#69, the sad truth is that this suit is nothing more than tha administrations attempt to rebrand a thrill killer into a victim. Doubly sad if we learn that we/the taxpayer and not the victim are paying for this frivilous lawsuit and that it is all just an attempt to redirect the publics attention away from the facts. That I guess will come out in FOI docs in years to come.
I’m sure that the police would prefer absolute secrecy when it comes to the deaths of citizens at their hands/while in custody. Thousands of people died ’secretly’ in Argentina in the 70’s, they just ‘disappeared’.
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dummy Says:
November 4th, 2009 at 12:54 pm
73. Theory complicated. It is more likely just a ploy to tie the issue up in court so that the CBC can’t report on this one individual “while the matter is before the courts’, age old ploy. They are just trying to bury the media in litigation.
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cashisking Says:
November 4th, 2009 at 1:02 pm
realpaul #71
you’re always railing about big brother … if you don’t want to pay the fees it’s easy DON’T! Sell it by yourself or better yet set up your own system and charge 250 a head. Good realtors are worth every penny.
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Anonymous Says:
November 4th, 2009 at 1:32 pm
feds keeping rates low for an extended period. doing a carney, are they? except they didn’t say how long exactly…
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realpaul Says:
November 4th, 2009 at 1:59 pm
#75, CIK, I don’t get the connection between big brother and inflated fees? Having managed real whores by the hundreds in my youth I can actually state a qualified opinion and say that $50 an hour is being very generous.
The fact is that the recent court ruling agrees with me. In reality it takes nothing to sell a property, no special skills at all. Why have to pay thousands of dollars to put your property for sale on what is actually a closeted ( now open) version of Craigs List?
Fee’s will fall dramatically as the public becomes aware of the new opportunity as will entrepeneurs who will see $50 dollars an hour to drive across town with a lock box key a fairly easy and lucrative way of churning a buck.
I have sold many props FSBO without any issues and even used real whores who quickly cut their fees when spoken to directly. A person with a condo for sale for example or a house in a subdivision of cookie cutter popcorn shacks can easily ascertain the asking versus the recent sales data in their immediate area, why need a real whore. Real whores are at best guestimators and not qualified appraisers by any stretch. Who needs to pay thousands for a service that is as easily found as the sign down the block and the sale around the corner. Its not rocket science.
If you want to pay for information then fine, pay a rate equivelant to what an information is worth, it certainly is not thousands of dollars.
What I would recommend for anyone wanting to buy or sell is ditch the real whore. If a real whore is useful then negotiate a fee with them directly if they have a bona fide deal that is satisfactory to your lawyer, don’t take the whores word for anything, their just commissioned salemen after all. The lawyer will charge less than $250 for the consultation.
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PS Says:
November 4th, 2009 at 2:23 pm
CREA fighting against ruling.
http://www.globeinvestor.com/s.....8/GIStory/
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other ted Says:
November 4th, 2009 at 6:33 pm
72 angryslav
Well to be honest I can’t stand this guy enough to read or listen to him in depth, but I get the big picture as to what he stands for. Everytime he is on tv he is advocating the big spending stimulus and thinks we will get out of this mess by spending. Any economist who thinks this is an idiot. Also I think he is more dishonest than just plain wrong. He is a big advocate of government intervention and of Bill Clinton. Yet conveniently fails to mention the administration responsible for getting rid of Glas-steagal.
I also don’t get this whole left/right argument. There is no left and right. Don’t be fooled by the controlled oposition in the media. Everyone is on the same team and me an you are not playing.
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whatthef@@k Says:
November 4th, 2009 at 7:37 pm
I just saw reported that ambulance workers are being denied the H1N1 shot whereas Hockey players are being snuck in the back door.
Is this town that much of an asshole?
I thought the Olympics was the apex of assholishness but when it comes to this I have truly seen the ugly reality of Vancouver.
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perma_tripple_bull+ Says:
November 4th, 2009 at 9:18 pm
Now that the fed has committed to zirp for the long term I think it’s safe to say that Canada has too. It’s going to last well beyond this summer folks. We cannot become an Australia here ok. We cannot become the target of the carry trade because it would bury Ontario. Therefore low rates are here to stay.
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Vomitron Says:
November 4th, 2009 at 10:33 pm
“Is this town that much of an asshole?”
Yes.
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Vansanity Says:
November 5th, 2009 at 12:15 am
Taxes going up soon, unemployment going up, interest rates going up soon… of course housing prices MUST go up too. LOL! What the fuck ever.
CMHC is the largest crown corporation, in other words the most corrupt. rentah nailed it with the fact they’re so far from their original mandate with this bullshit. Think about how other crown corporations/gov’t bodies have faired after they’ve gone strayed from their original mandate. This will only end badly.
Harper and the rest of his cronies better polish up on their double talk, they’ll need it to fool the sheeple from this bullshit they’ve been pulling. Just one big fuckin game of bend us over. We’re all so stupid, we put them there and let them get away with this kind of market interference and as long as the majority of the sheeple “benefit” from it through unrealized gains and the like, then who cares?! Because they’ll never question anything.
Bullshit. Greed. Stupidity. That could be a good title for my book.
Vansanity out!
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Boombust Says:
November 5th, 2009 at 7:32 am
…and I am STILL waiting for a reply from the chairman of the CMHC…
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gork Says:
November 5th, 2009 at 9:19 am
#75 Realtors worth every penny? They are salesmen and at least the ones I’ve talked to have no clue of the local market, not a bit. And the ones hat do, they likely won’t be honest with you due to the *glaring* conflict of interest. You want to buy as low as possible, he wants the price to be high since commission is a percentage. A flat fee for handling the paperwork makes sense, nothing more. All property research and selection can be done online by the buyer nowadays. Realtors in their current role have no reason to exist whatsoever.
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gork Says:
November 5th, 2009 at 10:26 am
…same with mortgage brokers, BTW. who needs them when all the info is available online?
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whatthef@@k Says:
November 5th, 2009 at 10:47 am
Millions of Canadians living in substandard housing says report. No Duh? Is it because we are the most over taxed over regulated country with the lowest standard of living in the G20?
http://www.vancouversun.com/Mi.....story.html
Or is there some other reason I’m missing as to why buisnesses don’t locate here?
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ForgotMyPreviouslyUsedHandle Says:
November 5th, 2009 at 11:55 am
Boombust,
(comment 84)
Would it be possible for you to post some or all of your letter? Maybe too if it is publicly posted that will help get a reply. Interesting that you haven’t received one yet … it’s been a couple of weeks, right?
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cashisking Says:
November 5th, 2009 at 12:13 pm
realpaul
do you own mutual funds? have you ever had to hire a really good lawyer for something important?
The MER on mutual funds is about 2% per annum … I once hired a lawyer at 600/hr for about 50 hrs and he was well worth it. Those are just a few examples
Have you ever talked/dealt with a really good RE agent? The ones I know have degrees. They work like dogs, have staffs and offices to pay for (during the five month meltdown last year they were paying out of pocket when nothing was coming in). They know every thing about the neighbourhood they deal in. They know all the builders, who to trust, who not to trust. they even know all the buildings and what to watch out for.
Once again if you want to save money and roll the dice you are allowed to. For me I have had nothing but great experiences working with them. I am fairly demanding but I want a professional. When I spend 2.5mm on a house that I plan to spend the better part of the rest of my life in, the commission is well worth it.
I could go on and on but you really should think before you speak …
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cashisking Says:
November 5th, 2009 at 12:49 pm
ps Realpaul … I usually do enjoy your rants but I think your offside on this one.
pps I’m a bear … I sold my house two years ago and have been renting ever since … my realtor calls me even though she/he knows I won’t buy to tell me about houses I should take a look at … I also bug him/her when I see something I’m curious about … the bulders and tradespeople she/he has a relationship with have worked on friends and families places and are worth their weight in gold.
ppps calling them real whores is actually off side
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Anonymous Says:
November 5th, 2009 at 1:05 pm
@ cashisking #89
Not everyone is a chef. Some simply serve burgers.
Your average barista at Starbucks knows nothing about espresso – they merely push buttons.
My best friend’s dad was a shoe salesman on the Island long time ago and because he knew everything about shoes he managed to support a family on his salary. Have you been to a shoe store lately? Have you asked staff ANY questions, not just about shoes?
I could go on…. but you get my point.
Thare are WAY fewer realtors than Realwhores these days and you can bet on it.
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realpaul Says:
November 5th, 2009 at 1:50 pm
#89 CIK, I gotta go with Anon #91 on this call. A whore is a whore, it doesn’t matter where they buy their makeup. I don’t have a ‘Pretty Woman’ complex when it comes to money. Theres nothing colder than a whores heart, which is exactly why yours keeps calling you. Its not because your a valued friend its because you represent a buck. Give it a shake, there you see, is it a bit clearer?
These parasites are commissioned salespersons. They get payed nothing to coddle you or act in your best interests. You are being groomed for a shearing.
Using the term ‘professional’ and ‘real estate agent’ in the same sentence is just funny. Lets keep proper credentials unsullied by the wannabe’s and the malcontents.
Trusting builders hmmmmmmmmmmmm. The work is entirely subbed out these days. No one on the money team ever visits the sight, thats a fact. When you’re working with specific types of builders only your lawyer can you trust. Certain types of builders think anyone outside their family group is sandwich meat. If you hire a builder for a 2.5 mill project you should also have an independant project manager to keep him in check. Trust no one who’s family will insist he or they have gone to live in another country the minute anything goes wrong.
Trusting a building? Read the minutes. Read the papers. Get drunk until that stupid idea gets out of your head. Trust what again?
A real whore who has to pay their own bills during a downturn? So whats the point? How long does ethical behaviour stand up when push comes to shove.
We saw a good example of that when all the hockety players got vaccinated in secret before the need worthy like the ambulance people and sick children. Ethics means nothing to people who are under pressure, thats just life in the big city.
The ‘rolling the dice’ comment sounds like it comes straight from the real whores ’scare the client’ playbook. Are you a realwhore ( or is your signifigant other) who stands to lose substantially when a level playing feild is introduced to the marketplace?
Fact is, real whores are a dime a dozen at the best of times and not worth more than an hourly rate. If the name is too strong please suggest another. How about “Dim Sum Queens”? Or did BUM Rennie already grab that one?
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logic Says:
November 5th, 2009 at 2:14 pm
what 91 said.
There are good and bad eggs in every profession.
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cashisking Says:
November 5th, 2009 at 2:39 pm
All I was saying is you pay for what you get … you don’t have to pay and you don’t have to get.
Does it bother you that my kids go to private school? Does it bother you I have my suits tailored? I also have ski boots custom fit for my kids and my daughter’s saddle was custom made?
On the other hand … I volunteer for several boards/charities … I spent three days at Whistler helping my landlord install/build at my rental so I could get a break on the rent. I’ve coached or managed umpteen (word?) teams.
Cut the personal crap it demeans your argument.
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gork Says:
November 5th, 2009 at 3:08 pm
#93 and in some profession 99% are rotten.
Agree with RP on #89’s “if you want to save money and roll the dice”. That’s realtor fear mongering at it’s best. Without realtor you can still have a building inspector, lawyer, ect.
89, what’s the true value you get from the realtor, how does he/she make up for their money?
I frequently get newsletters from a few realtors i contacted in the past >2years back when trying to get more info on a property listed. First, it’s annoying to get this spam, second, isn’t it funny that they all think (at any given time) I should buy right now, great opportunities ect ect…
However this reminds me of the worst part, when i called them waaay back for more info on properties they were simply not in a position to provide it (but always had a friend that could arrange for a mortgage). Asked for a floorplan with measurements, which i think is pretty basic when buying a house or condo, and i have not seen one for any of my inquiries.
hm.
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Nero911 Says:
November 5th, 2009 at 4:05 pm
Employment Quality in Canada Detiorating – worst in BC (jobs quality index down a whopping 8%)
http://www.canadianbusiness.co....._7_cnw_cnw
See the PDF report linked to in the article, courtesy CIBCWM
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Supraboy Says:
November 5th, 2009 at 4:12 pm
@Disbelief:
You think I’m worried about my job going south? My properties are rented out and the suckers are paying off the mortgages for me. If you took economics 101, you’d learn a few tricks or two about how to build assets.
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cashisking Says:
November 5th, 2009 at 4:23 pm
gork #95
Well then your not dealing with a competent person
… Look all I’m saying is do your homework … when I bought my first place 15 years ago I didn’t have a realtor and found the place myself. I negotiated the fee and took into the consideration that the realtor was probably biased in favour of the vendor … I was o.k. with that but you get what you pay for.
I’ve worked very hard to get where I am and I charge a lot of money for my services. If you don’t like it find someone else. Even though I am in NOT a realtor people shouldn’t be telling them what there service is worth with anything other than THEIR wallet.
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realpaul Says:
November 5th, 2009 at 5:01 pm
#94 CIK, I don’t get the private school connection or charity assoc in any of that as it relates to the incompetance of real whores generally?
Are you saying that you feel that you deserve or are more worthy of a better quality real whore than the rest of us because of your personal foibles?
Fact is that the Real Whore Board itself disagrees with you. It is their assertion that the qualifications of all real whores are homogeneous and that they are all as competant as another. So….it sort of blows the lid off the ‘you get what you pay for ‘ argument.
i have to disagree with you strongly on the point of ‘voting with your wallet’ assertion. Voting is synonymous with freedom of choice. The Whore Council has not allowed free competition into the market. Only then will we see who’s truly competant and who is not.
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realpaul Says:
November 5th, 2009 at 5:07 pm
#96, N911, I saw a Labour Council announcement flash by earlier today that suggested unemployment numbers tommorrow will be UGLY. Wait for the fun.
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realpaul Says:
November 5th, 2009 at 5:14 pm
#98 I seem to be getting censored again. My responses to your string are hitting too close to the bone.
But I couldn’t stop posting this from garths comments
Here’s another herd mentality for ya.
Regular healthy people trying to jump the queue lining up for H1N1 vaccines.
How many people die every year from heart disease?
Yet I see no line ups at the gym.
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realpaul Says:
November 5th, 2009 at 5:16 pm
Woops, slow down RP , my bad, no censorship of comments today, my machinery must have blinked for a minute. Solly all.
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cik Says:
November 5th, 2009 at 5:24 pm
Sorry I thought you would figure it out
Private schools = higher fees for better service … you don’t have to believe it … you don’t have to pay for it … if I don’t feel I’m getting my money’s worth I DON’T have to send them ie pay for it
Do you honestly believe they are equal? WOW
If I owned a property could I sell by myself or are all for sale by owner transactions done between people who don’t have realtors. Furthermore there is a whole section in the Chapters near me that is devoted to selling your house by yourself – fuckin book whores?!? Why are they allowed to charge money if it’s not possible.
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space889 Says:
November 5th, 2009 at 5:36 pm
@gvrdpropertyowner:
What I have heard from friends, friends of my wife, etc is basically who cares if the interest rates rise? If I can afford the mortgage payments now then it’s better to own now than renting because you “own” the place and can do what you feel like. Plus it will be newer than the 30 years old rental apartment I’m in right now. Also renting you have to obey other people’s rules but not owning! If the rates goes up in 5 years and I can’t afford it then I will sell and at worst break-even. This is the type of thinking from accountants, engineers, marketing, finance, etc, etc, etc. They figure there will always be someone who can afford to buy it and will buy it so they suffer no loss (ie. house sale proceeds at least equal to outstanding mortgage amount).
My response was ignoring all else, someone who can afford the higher payments probably makes more $$ than you or at least wealthier. So why would a wealthier person not purchase a better place more suited for his wealth/higher income and instead a used condo from you, a poorer person, at a higher price than you bought it at? Given that the cost of owning the place can be viewed as the monthly mortgage payment, strata fee, insurance, tax, etc. Also if a lot of people in your income bracket bought similar places and need to sell, why do you think there are enough higher income people around to buy these places? Since the general rule is that the higher up on the income/wealth ladder, the fewer people there are.
oh well….in the end it’s their choices, no need to be a super spoil sport full of negativism right?
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No Longer Looking Says:
November 5th, 2009 at 5:58 pm
@space889: “Also renting you have to obey other people’s rules but not owning!”
That’s another myth. You’re always answering to someone. Whether its the condo board, the municipality, the taxman etc.
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logic Says:
November 5th, 2009 at 7:06 pm
“Plus it will be newer than the 30 years old rental apartment I’m in right now. A”
———————
Err, with the number of new condos (granite a SS appliances and all) on offer at the moment, odds are your “rented” place will be newer than their “owned” place.
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logic Says:
November 5th, 2009 at 7:10 pm
“If the rates goes up in 5 years and I can’t afford it then I will sell and at worst break-even.”
———
If rates go up, people can afford to borrow less. So they will have less to spend on a property. Hence you will get lower offers than they would have made if rates were low. So, do that math on that one.
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oneangryslav2 Says:
November 5th, 2009 at 7:36 pm
@logic: Exactly. Everyone should do themselves a favour and complete the following activity. Look up at a typical East Vancouver bungalow on the MLS. Then, go to your favourite mortgage calculator and calculate how much your monthly mortage will be at various interest rates. Then, go onto the Craigslist rentals section and look for houses/apartments/condos that are renting for the various mortgage paymenst you calculatd in the prior step.
Now, for your homework question, ask yourself, “is the quality of shelter that I would get by renting better/worse/about the same as that East Van bungalow.” I think most of us know the answer to that question.
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ave Says:
November 5th, 2009 at 7:54 pm
…then ask yourself what value you would place on not being able to be evicted for “landlord renovations”, and being able to upgrade the place as you see fit. Then subtract what you think the value is for being able to bail on it with a month’s notice. Then add a premium for not having to read this blog and obsess over housing for the rest of your life.
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Boombust Says:
November 5th, 2009 at 7:55 pm
Boombust,
(comment 84)
“Would it be possible for you to post some or all of your letter? Maybe too if it is publicly posted that will help get a reply. Interesting that you haven’t received one yet … it’s been a couple of weeks, right?”
Sorry chum. Didn’t keep it.
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rainyday5000 Says:
November 5th, 2009 at 9:32 pm
Cashisking, isn’t your wife a realtor? Considering your bearish outlook, it must make for some interesting dinner table conversation. I agree that there are good realtors worth their fees, but they sure are hard to find.
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logic Says:
November 6th, 2009 at 12:57 am
Err, did that math. Worth very little to me.
Worth more was:
[1] not having to worry about potential negative equity
[2] being free to relocate if i wish
[3] Being able to stick my stuff in storage and go travelling for 6 months whenever I feel like it.
etc.
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space889 Says:
November 6th, 2009 at 6:14 pm
@No Longer Looking: Hi, I know it’s a myth and I constantly tell my wife and friends who are thinking about buying a condo. So that was meant to be tongue in cheek. However many people I know do think that way, especially from mainland China as apparently the condo there (or the equivalent of) don’t actually have as many enforceable rules as here. As my wife puts it, in China if you don’t like how your neighbor lives? Move because it’s your problem!
I find that there is a serious lack of education about condo living and what your obligations are and what happens if things go wrong. It’s really unfortunate.
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mukesh Says:
December 30th, 2009 at 1:22 pm
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